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The UK Variant


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18 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

And that variant is just getting started in the USA. Meanwhile our communities in Illinois are relaxing restrictions on restaurants and bars, just in time for this variant to wreak havoc again. Only good thing is all over 65 who want the vaccine will have had their first dose by the end of January, which should be enough to protect them from dying.

Meaning in Illinois, or also elsewhere? How many % are taking vs. not?

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If the UK had stayed in the EU, then none of this would have happened.   In case you hadn't noticed......it was immediately after the UK voted to leave the EU, that Trump was elected. This in tur

Go easy on the ignorance piece. The US has some of the smartest public health professionals on the planet and they were early to anticipate that there was a problem in China The essential differe

Inevitably the mutations which have lower R will disappear and the mutations with a higher R will predominate. It is just math and mutation. Most viruses evolve more slowly based on time but this is a

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3 hours ago, Matagi said:

The gift that keeps on giving.

Quotes in blue.

 

'Some evidence' the UK variant may be more deadly

"We already knew that the Covid-19 variant first discovered in south-east England was more transmissible, but now - speaking at a Downing Street briefing - Prime Minister Boris Johnson has revealed it may also "be associated with a higher degree of mortality". On how much more deadly the UK strain might be, the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said if the old variant might lead to the deaths of 10 in 1,000 men in their 60s who caught the virus, the new variant might kill 13 or 14 in 1,000. However, he added: "There's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it."

So possibly 30% to 40% more transmissible and now on top also 30% more deadly. I don't want to see that model.

Here is the report. It summarizes various studies from LSHTM, Uni of Exeter and the Imperial College, which are rather consistent in their findings, quote:

"Initial analysis identified 152 deaths following a first positive SARS-CoV-2 test, n = 86 (0.09%) SGTF cases and n = 66 (0.07%) comparator cases. It was noted that 0.07% to 0.09% represents a 28% relative increase in the risk of death, which is compatible with the results from LSHTM and Imperial."

SGTF is the proxy for the UK variant.

That's crap research from the usual suspects aka Neil Ferguson - Imperial College.  You are big on "Peer Review" Matagi - who reviewed this research?  THE FACT IS IT IS UNPUBLISHED NON PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH!  Ferguson has a decades long track record second to none in getting it wrong!

Explain this if as these "researchers" are saying that the new variant has "25-90% more mortality" (aside from the fact that the range of estimate isn't particularly defined) then why during the first peak of infection and mortality the peak infections was 7,800 and the peak deaths was 1,166 yet during this second peak the peak infections were (it is dropping rapidly) 68,000 and deaths 1,820 i.e. the level of mortality per number of infections is lower by a factor of EIGHT!  Yes that isn't a very scientific analysis but logic suggests that if the new variant (in circulation since mid-September) was 50% more deadly then surely the difference would be lower but higher! 

Of course no mention of the fact that the previous peak occurred in mid-spring whereas this peak is occuring in mid-winter which is the seasonal peak of respiratory disease death!

The fact is this research is flawed as proper peer review will show.  However just like the more infectious variant narrative it helps the UK Government explain the fact that their interventions have done stuff all to change the outcome of the pandemic.

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Illinois, at least my county of Champaign. I don't know about percentage of uptake by 65+ folk, but all my friends are scheduled for next week. So by the end of the first week of February we will all be mostly immune, a really good feeling. Still very disappointed that they are not deferring the second dose for 3 months.

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7 hours ago, Matagi said:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has revealed it may also "be associated with a higher degree of mortality". On how much more deadly the UK strain might be, the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said if the old variant might lead to the deaths of 10 in 1,000 men in their 60s who caught the virus, the new variant might kill 13 or 14 in 1,000. However, he added: "There's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it."

Mat putting aside the science bear this in mind if you don't already know.

- Johnson has a long history of gaslighting aspects of Covid. This variant he has already used to divert attention away from his promise of Xmas being ON with lockdown lifting to being CANCELLED by lockdown not being lifted.

- Valance is a 'glove puppet', and a puppet stuffed full of 'herd immunity' recommendations that went to shit.

The 'gaslighting' is two fold.

1. UK are going to a have a long hard winter Covid with statistics worsening. Further NPI's/harsher lockdown is on the cards. Speed bumps also occuring with vaccine roll out. See below.

The Tory yellow press is his microphone, no one watches his Covid pressers. Tabloid readers in particular he is messaging by their Covid impact demographic and also an important electoral base.

The ever reliable Sun that always delivers.

DEADLY STRAIN New Covid strain is between 30-90% more deadly, say scientists – but vaccine still works

Compared to the more restrained BBC

Coronavirus: UK variant 'may be more deadly'

2. Brexit is a catastrofuck. Both have been employed to gaslight and divert attention away from the other for the last 9 months.

References being made about EU vaccine roll out issues in context of UK possibly some problems. More gaslighting.

Back to the science...this is not going well.

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

That's crap research from the usual suspects aka Neil Ferguson - Imperial College.  You are big on "Peer Review" Matagi - who reviewed this research?  THE FACT IS IT IS UNPUBLISHED NON PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH!  Ferguson has a decades long track record second to none in getting it wrong!

That fucking funny coming from a bullshitter who cites work not peer reviewed and the authors are from Mars.

How long does peer review take up there??

4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Ferguson has a decades long track record second to none in getting it wrong!

You love criticsing Ferguson even when he is just one of many institutions and persons cited here.

But you never mention his March Covid modelling anymore?

Why is that??

Instrumental in the US and UK UTurning on 16 March on YOUR Swedish/herd immunity 'hard on' maybe?

How is that 'herd immunity' thing going by the way? You don't say anything about it anymore.

Imperial College/Ferguson's March mortality modelling for BOTH US and UK for BOTH 'doing nothing' AND 'responding' with suppression NPI's appears to be ON THE MONEY, yet you said it was shit maybe?

No maybe about you always a fucking bullshitter.

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It's the SA one that is more troubling. The current Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are less effective against that one, says Dr Agus.

If we masked up,that would help against them all. But noooooo......

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2 hours ago, d'ranger said:

FWIW any variant more transmittable will be more deadly as more cases = more deaths. (...)

True, but these three studies attempt to identify changes in mortality of the virus independently from transmissibility. So if it is more for any one person on top if being easier to catch.

Though the studies point out that datasets are still little, their cohort sizes allow for valid statistical modelling. You get a larger variance, but a statistically significant result.

In this case, all three independent studies point in the same direction.

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Lockdowns work and the UK is once again starting to gain control, probably helped along by their vaccination efforts, but deaths take a month to catch up, so the next few weeks will be hell on earth for the UK health system.

 

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Screen Shot 2021-01-23 at 12.26.55 AM.png

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On 1/23/2021 at 4:23 PM, TheDragon said:

Lockdowns work and the UK is once again starting to gain control, probably helped along by their vaccination efforts, but deaths take a month to catch up, so the next few weeks will be hell on earth for the UK health system.

Don't forget that the contact/trace/test in the UK collapsed ages ago in fact it barely got started. Not to be confused with just test capacity.

Therefore the ratio of positive tests to all tests by region and acute care occupancy/staff ratios (for stress level) by region are far better indicators. The unknown until ONS data comes out is mortality outside the health care system, a big number in spring.

UK: Share of COVID-19 tests that are positive 

Note: The whackjobs who claim PCR is a bogus test with too higher rate of false positives can then never explain the high rate of accompanying body bags.

Max 25%+ London ..wow.

Leveled out no longer dropping

IMG_20210124_162626.jpg.df13ca8eaaa4fb9709108c7d611129f2.jpg

% ICU bed occupancy data is available as well on whether ICUs are under severe strain as meant by "surge capacity”.

This extract below from the UK Intensive Care Society gives a good explanation, plus effects on other hospital services and staff.

The number of NHS staff off work is also eye watering. The number of available general and acute care beds shrinking is also forgotton. Mortality rate is the ultimate number with the delay as you note.

ErXM0gBXEAAcJAk.thumb.jpeg.36b6de73fcc246155c2f9e670da3e7b6.jpeg

The Govt currently sticking to the narrative of 'light at end of tunnel/vaccine' by using cases only and combined general/acute care stats are doing so to avoid broadcasting too stark a picture. Unfortunately reality catches up to that.

Note the word "Estimated" testing positive.??? 

General and acute care occupancy is combined.

Dated yesterday.

Though to Governments  credit they do publish Ri numbers (not many do that) but ONLY when it suits the spin. Currently it is dropping, but the data source???? 

Also to their credit things like mandatory negative test at exit country (now a week old) and at least considering a £500 grant per positive Covid test 'to incentivise quarantine'. HOWEVER ever since day one, these measures are done AFTER the 'horse has bolted'. They are also not good at putting themselves in the shoes of the populace. For instance;

"Go to an illegal rave & get a COVID19 = £800 fine, test positive = collect £500 isolation bonus.
Total = £300 for a night out and can they catch me breaking isolation?"

If they are forced to ramp up restrictions then the narrative emphasis changes to the more accurate data plus the added impact of this strain.

This lot are 'gaslighters extraordinare' and have a compliant media at their disposal.

Sorry I started to write one para then got carried away. :D

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16 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

 

Sorry I started to write one para then got carried away. :D

No kidding, but good stuff

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  • 2 weeks later...

Here is another story about a mutant. 

Fury as serial killer Rose West gets virus jab

Fury has erupted as 67-year-old serial killer Rosemary West receives a lifesaving COVID-19 jab ahead of millions of British citizens.

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This sucks, we locally in East Central Illinois now have at least 7 cases of the UK variant (at least not the enhanced UK variant with E484K), AND we have a case of the South African variant which does have the E484K change, so that's really bad. Even more reason to get as many people the first vaccine doses as possible, the rate of which is now down because second doses are taking priority. We have almost a third of eligible and a quarter of all residents given their first dose, so we are far ahead of most of the rest of the country. However, we also have relaxed restrictions on indoor dining. Last night I got pickup walleye sandwiches from our favorite Friday night restaurant and it was packed to the gills with maskless people talking loudly at small tables, a veritable covid hotspot, so we are very vulnerable to these variants spreading.

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

This sucks, we locally in East Central Illinois now have at least 7 cases of the UK variant (at least not the enhanced UK variant with E484K), AND we have a case of the South African variant which does have the E484K change, so that's really bad.

Still waiting for more than one peer reviewed research that shows these "new" variants (UK variant has been circulating since September) are more infectious and that the winter surge in infections wasn't due to seasonal factors.  Note the rate of infection was dropping before vaccination started and has continued to decline as per normative Gompertz curves.

Which States in the USA are showing increases in infection rates?  

On 2/5/2021 at 7:40 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Now potentially add UK variant to BR and SA variants and vaccine effectiveness.

Concerning coronavirus mutation now found in UK variant

Suggest Wacko you actually READ the studies that were mentioned in this "article".....  FFS I guess you will spin anything to promote your dumb narrative!

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43 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Still waiting for more than one peer reviewed research that shows these "new" variants (UK variant has been circulating since September) are more infectious and that the winter surge in infections wasn't due to seasonal factors.

"Still waiting for more than one peer reviewed research that shows these "new" variants (UK variant has been circulating since September) are more infectious.."

:lol::lol::lol:

'..and that the winter surge in infections wasn't due to seasonal factors."

UK - Winter

Brazil - Summer

South Africa - Summer

43 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Note the rate of infection was dropping before vaccination started and has continued to decline as per normative Gompertz curves

Note "the rate of infection was dropping before vaccination started' 

SA rollout suspended/stalled and Brazil started, but not one person fully vaccinated as of last week.

SA cases peaked mid January due to NPI's ditto Brazil but plateaued.

UK started vaccination 8 December. Top 4 risk tiers complete next week.

UK new cases peaked at 68K on 8 January due to NPI's.

43 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:
On 2/5/2021 at 4:40 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Now potentially add UK variant to BR and SA variants and vaccine effectiveness.

Concerning coronavirus mutation now found in UK variant

Suggest Wacko you actually READ the studies that were mentioned in this "article".....  FFS I guess you will spin anything to promote your dumb narrative

What is my 'narrative' citing post(s) other than saying you are an idiot still looking for a village?   

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41 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

What is my 'narrative' citing post(s) other than saying you are an idiot still looking for a village?   

Yeah well you found your "village" on the Aussie Wacko Jacko thread.  Seems you own the whole village!

Where is the peer reviewed research?  

46 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

'..and that the winter surge in infections wasn't due to seasonal factors."

 

I said WINTER in the UK.  

As for South Africa and Brazil there are other factors involved there (NOT VARIANTS) and you know that.

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7 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Note the rate of infection was dropping before vaccination started and has continued to decline.

5 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Where is the peer reviewed research?  

"Note the rate infection was dropping before vaccination started and has continued to decline "  

Cases peaked 8 January due to hard intervention.

Vaccinations commenced 8 December.

"Where is the peer reviewed research?"

56,000 * dead SINCE 8 December from a total of 116,000.

* Tested postive and Covid on death certificate but where death occurs < 28 days of test. Actual Covid deaths as recorded by certificate will be a lot higher when ONS report. 'Excess Deaths' recorded by ONS will be lower as this is in winter flu season and flu deaths have 'dropped' due to Covid interventions.

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8 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:
On 2/5/2021 at 4:40 PM, jack_sparrow said:

Now potentially add UK variant to BR and SA variants and vaccine effectiveness.

Concerning coronavirus mutation now found in UK variant

Suggest Wacko you actually READ the studies that were mentioned in this "article".....  FFS I guess you will spin anything to promote your dumb narrative!

7 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

What is my 'narrative' citing post(s) other than saying you are an idiot still looking for a village?

 

7 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Yeah well you found your "village" on the Aussie Wacko Jacko thread.  Seems you own the whole village!

 

Just as I said.

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11 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Still waiting for more than one peer reviewed research that shows these "new" variants (UK variant has been circulating since September) are more infectious and that the winter surge winter surge in infections wasn't due to seasonal factors.

10 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I said WINTER in the UK.  

Where is the peer reviewed research?  

 

"Still waiting for more than one peer reviewed  research that shows these "new" variants (UK variant has been  circulating since September) are more infectious and that the winter surge in infections wasn't due to seasonal factors."

"I said WINTER in the UK".

"Where is the peer reviewed research?  

56,000 * dead SINCE 8 December from a total of 116,000......

.......Excess Deaths' recorded by ONS will  be lower as this is in winter flu season and flu deaths have 'DROPPED' due to Covid interventions.

image.thumb.png.e2f0ecf4596c34d954d2230cf4085b75.png

4 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

56,000 * dead SINCE 8 December from a total of 116,000.

* Tested postive and Covid on death certificate but where death occurs < 28 days of test. Actual Covid deaths as recorded by certificate will be a lot higher when ONS report. 'Excess Deaths' recorded by ONS will be lower as this is in winter flu season and flu deaths have 'dropped' due to Covid interventions.

Keep bullshitting bullshitter.

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This topic has surely been discussed already, but I'm trying to think about where this viral evolution is going.

The latest out of Britain is the possibility, from larger datasets than the original data suggesting no increased death rate with their variant, that their B117 variant is not only more readily transmitted, but also more lethal. That's not the "usual" evolutionary path for viruses, but of course it is all dependent on the starting situation. This is a virus that is already readily transmitted and not nearly as fatal as some, so variants that are even more transmissable are obvious, and they can probably "afford" to also be more lethal, especially if they still take 3-4 weeks to kill, allowing plenty of time to move on to another host or two. There might still be quite a lot of room to evolve into even more fatal strains.

That said, it is interesting that the three major variants of concern to date share certain mutations. Assuming that they evolved independently as appears to be the case, that suggests limited ways the virus can evolve increased transmissability. The question then is whether once these strains become dominant, are there additional mutations that can be added that make then even worse. Initial indications are that might be the case, with the E484K mutation being acquired by the B117 strain, a mutation already present in the South African strain. But the independent evolution of these relatively few mutations gives me hope there are not too many more ways this virus can evolve to be more problematic. I hope I am not wrong.

 

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On 2/15/2021 at 8:08 AM, TheDragon said:

This topic has surely been discussed already, but I'm trying to think about where this viral evolution is going.

Mate here some recent material that appears to be up your ally.

NERVTAG - 10 February 2021 B.1.1.7 Severity (UK variant)

PHE - 3 February 2021- Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern - England. Technical briefing 6

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Thanks Jack, very interesting reading.

BE, the variants are in complete control in the countries where they originated, for example, 96% of infections in the UK are now their variant, similar in South Africa, Brazil has so little data we cannot tell, but likely the same. Here's one graph from the PHE report Jack linked to. The worldwide reduction in cases is because enough countries have taken public health steps to control the pandemic and public is finally complying, add in vaccines and some endogenous herd immunity (for example, decent antibody tests show some regions of South Africa are already around 60% positive, indicating vast excess of infection above official rates of less than 10%, and nearly herd immunity). USA just getting started with the variants, but given vaccines are effective against them all, including the South African strain (prevent severe disease and death, if not all symptomatic cases), we will hopefully still see a general reduction in cases even as the variants become dominant, just like UK and SA.

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 8.29.12 AM.png

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

BE, the variants are in complete control in the countries where they originated, for example, 96% of infections in the UK are now their variant, similar in South Africa, Brazil has so little data we cannot tell, but likely the same. Here's one graph from the PHE report Jack linked to. The worldwide reduction in cases is because enough countries have taken public health steps to control the pandemic and public is finally complying, add in vaccines and some endogenous herd immunity (for example, decent antibody tests show some regions of South Africa are already around 60% positive, indicating vast excess of infection above official rates of less than 10%, and nearly herd immunity). USA just getting started with the variants, but given vaccines are effective against them all, including the South African strain (prevent severe disease and death, if not all symptomatic cases), we will hopefully still see a general reduction in cases even as the variants become dominant, just like UK and SA.

 

Ok, thanks for the data, I guess we will know soon.
UK chart of cases is copied below (current today).  The recent decline is similar to the US (without lockdowns), just plunging


And, elementarily: I find the argument that 'people are now complying properly' - absolutely ludicrous.  
The idea that for 1 year, everyone was 'doing it wrong'.   And now, in mid January, randomly, everyone in the world started complying perfectly with the flavor of the month health mandates - and that fixed everything?  I just can't get behind such populist and simplistic rationale.  

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 11.55.40 AM.png

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4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Ok, thanks for the data, I guess we will know soon.
UK chart of cases is copied below (current today).  The recent decline is similar to the US (without lockdowns), just plunging.

....The idea that for 1 year, everyone was 'doing it wrong'.   And now, in mid January, randomly, everyone in the world started complying perfectly with the flavor of the month health mandates - and that fixed everything?  

Why didn't you put up US chart to support that? 

Total deaths to date compared to from early Dec US 42% and UK 48%. UK deaths now back down, US have plateaued since late Dec and only now dropping. Variant proportion in each not the same.

No lockdown maybe, but US health care wasn't as swamped??

All generalisations, pattern???

US Complete

EuTjwFjVIAEF1-4.jpeg

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Actually I do think people in the US have been taking the virus more seriously this year, partly simply in reaction to the massive surge we had, and partly due to a change in attitudes at all levels. Not perfect by a long way, but a lot better than last year. But we will see what the next few months brings, we are only at the beginning of the variants in this country and the vaccination effort is accelerating. Assuming we manage to get most vulnerable people vaccinated by the end of this month then death rates, at least, should be much lower in April onwards. 

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On 2/16/2021 at 4:15 PM, jack_sparrow said:

In this thread Jack screams about how contagious the variant is, while over in the Australian covid thread he berates the government for taking swift action when the variant escapes from Quarantine. 

All while presenting information he googled 5 minutes ago as knowledge. 

‘The dumb cunts have let 4 cases escape! And now the dumb cunts have locked down for only 4 cases!’ 

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Mate, there are ca. 5 people left on this whole topic, sock puppets not included.

That's not exactly breaking news.

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On 1/23/2021 at 9:27 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

... THE FACT IS IT IS UNPUBLISHED NON PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH!  ...

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Paging Mr. Kettle, Mr. Pot is here to see you.

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On 2/16/2021 at 6:32 PM, TheDragon said:

Actually I do think people in the US have been taking the virus more seriously this year, partly simply in reaction to the massive surge we had, and partly due to a change in attitudes at all levels. Not perfect by a long way, but a lot better than last year. But we will see what the next few months brings, we are only at the beginning of the variants in this country and the vaccination effort is accelerating. Assuming we manage to get most vulnerable people vaccinated by the end of this month then death rates, at least, should be much lower in April onwards. 

Vulnerable for vaccine purposes in US in not just the really old, those who need nursing home care or are ill. It's 65 and over now.

It's not just lower death rate, it's economic stimulus as boomers go back to stores, restaurants, healthcare providers, dentists.  We spent nothing on doctor and dentist visits after March, no casual shopping (thousands to Amazon), no food expenditures except groceries and 4 pizzas. Now the cash will start to flow by April....

 

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46 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Vulnerable for vaccine purposes in US in not just the really old, those who need nursing home care or are ill. It's 65 and over now.

It's not just lower death rate, it's economic stimulus as boomers go back to stores, restaurants, healthcare providers, dentists.  We spent nothing on doctor and dentist visits after March, no casual shopping (thousands to Amazon), no food expenditures except groceries and 4 pizzas. Now the cash will start to flow by April....

 

It seems bad when our only value in society is defined by how much we spend.

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6 hours ago, LB 15 said:

In this thread Jack screams about how contagious the variant is, while over in the Australian covid thread he berates the government for taking swift action when the variant escapes from Quarantine. 

All while presenting information he googled 5 minutes ago as knowledge. 

‘The dumb cunts have let 4 cases escape! And now the dumb cunts have locked down for only 4 cases!’ 

New Zealand had an "Outbreak" of both the UK and SA variants.  Infected about 8 people.

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On 2/17/2021 at 2:45 PM, LB 15 said:

In this thread Jack screams about how contagious the variant is, while over in the Australian covid thread he berates the government for taking swift action when the variant escapes from Quarantine. 

All while presenting information he googled 5 minutes ago as knowledge. 

‘The dumb cunts have let 4 cases escape! And now the dumb cunts have locked down for only 4 cases!’ 

Whatever, he’s one of your socks and this is you deflecting suspicion.

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6 hours ago, 12 metre said:

Interestingly, it looks like UK has approved human challenge trials for Coronavirus research: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/17/world/europe/britain-covid-study.html

Would have sped up vaccine development if they had just tossed aside the ethics question from the get go.

No, far more ethical that millions should die while we wait for doubles blind trisls.  That ivory tower ethics is beyond frustrating.

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21 minutes ago, BOI Guy said:

How ethical is it when you deliberately withhold treatment for half of your patients? 

If cuntroversial_prick was one of them it would be fine. Of course with him being a denier, there are two more shots of the Vax to go around.

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On 2/16/2021 at 4:15 PM, jack_sparrow said:
On 2/15/2021 at 8:08 AM, TheDragon said:

This topic has surely been discussed already, but I'm trying to think about where this viral evolution is going.

Mate here some recent material that appears to be up your ally.

NERVTAG - 10 February 2021 B.1.1.7 Severity (UK variant)

PHE - 3 February 2021- Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern - England. Technical briefing 6

On 2/17/2021 at 12:34 AM, TheDragon said:

Thanks Jack, very interesting reading.

 

Mate the NERVETAG Severity Paper by my reading has the Brit Variant around ONLY '30% more infectious' OR around 11% versus 15% contacts get infected. 

This puts to bed hopefully the bullshit '70% more infectious' still being bandied around by many.

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In Australia the UK variant has proved to be even less transmissible than the earlier, garden variety covid. 

The new strain escapes from hotel Quarantine every few hours down here yet nada community transition.

But then again we don't have snow and recent findings have indicated that it is mainly snowflakes that catch it.

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3 hours ago, LB 15 said:

In Australia the UK variant has proved to be even less transmissible than the earlier, garden variety covid. 

The new strain escapes from hotel Quarantine every few hours down here yet nada community transition.

LB you haven't completed the story. 

Except one escape, ALL escapes this year have been via Hotel Quarantine workers ONLY. 

Regularly tested (some daily) they spend "nada" or fuck all TIME in the community.

If that NERVTAG Severity Study of 14% is right, those workers to infect ONE person have to FIRST make close contact with EIGHT people between tests.

Outside infected household members and primary social contacts, and some even there ZERO, that is why there is "nada community transition".

It is NOT "the UK variant has proved to be even less transmissible"

Which begs the question, why 4 LOCK DOWNS between 3 to 5 days since the New Year in communities across 3 states of between 2 - 6.3 million people?

Surely not ratshit contact/trace/testing capacity in those 3 states and the virus strain blamed to cover that up?? :rolleyes:

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Thank you for calling LB15. The office is now closed until 5am in the morning - or earlier if I need to dump. Please leave a short message (less than 10 000 words) as to the nature of your problem, and we will ignore it. 

Thank you and try to get some sleep.

 

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New York variant has the same E484K mutation as the SA and Brazil (and new new UK) variants, so clearly this is a major path for the virus towards increased transmissability, and even if by chance also some escape from antibodies against the original strain, a second booster shot targeted at it likely will help with all variants to date. The really interesting question is whether once these E484K variants become dominant will we see additional mutants on top of them.

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4 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

Remind me when all the scary headlines about 'Variants Will Kill Us All!' herd immunity is already here- is that still happening?  

 

Or, was that another wrong public health prediction?

Fixed it for you.

And the other guy whose name I forgot.

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On 2/26/2021 at 10:28 PM, BlatantEcho said:

Remind me when all the scary headlines about 'Variants Will Kill Us All!' - is that still happening?  

 

Or, was that another wrong public health prediction?

Which was it, a headline of a public health prediction? Don't confuse the two.

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On 2/26/2021 at 7:28 AM, BlatantEcho said:

Remind me when all the scary headlines about 'Variants Will Kill Us All!' - is that still happening?  

 

Or, was that another wrong public health prediction?

Was that a headline in some right-wing nutjob news, or a Ted Cruz quote?

- DSK

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On 2/19/2021 at 11:23 PM, LB 15 said:

If cuntroversial_prick was one of them it would be fine. Of course with him being a denier, there are two more shots of the Vax to go around.

I’ve never been a covid denier. I have just doubted that very many states’ countermeasures were going to be effective over sny kind of longer time horizon. And with the exception of a handful of island states, a year later I have been pretty damn spot on.

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22 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

 And with the exception of a handful of island states, a year later I have been pretty damn spot on.

'Except for when I was wrong, I was right'.

Are you studying 'Jackspeak'?

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On 2/28/2021 at 7:25 PM, Controversial_posts said:

I have just doubted that very many states’ countermeasures were going to be effective over sny kind of longer time horizon. And with the exception of a handful of island states, a year later I have been pretty damn spot on.

You have, sadly, proven to be 100% right.

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35 minutes ago, BlatantEcho said:
On 3/1/2021 at 11:25 AM, Controversial_posts said:

I have just doubted that very many states’ countermeasures were going to be effective over sny kind of longer time horizon. And with the exception of a handful of island states, a year later I have been pretty damn spot on.

You have, sadly, proven to be 100% right.

You two really need to get out more.

Deaths range for over 170 countries between 200 per 100k and Zero. 

Of that 170, around 135 are below the halfway mark of 100 per 100k.

In the worst 35 is Sweden with 127 per 100K, your darling.

The best performing top 50 has Australia an island as the worst at 3.6 per 100k.

The top 10 has NZ as the worst with 0.5 / 100, the smallest by population and only one of two islands, the other Taiwan.

 

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If anyone could be fucked reading Jacks figures he has quoted they should fact check them before using them. I have only bothered doing it twice and both times what he had claimed were complete fabrications. Still Austraila would have about 10 deaths in total If only all Australians had simply taken the governments advise in March to return home immediately. We wouldn’t still have the selfish cunts coming home now and bringing their filthy viruses with them. 

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Got out of the rack early and before doing anything starting typing nasty today I see.

27 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

If anyone could be fucked reading Jacks figures he has quoted they should fact check them before using them. I have only bothered doing it twice and both times what he had claimed were complete fabrications.

On 2/11/2021 at 4:00 PM, LB 15 said:

Time to give Jack another bottle of air.........

Lets turn over a few stones on this little fantasy.In December 2020 Australia had 35 100 overseas arrivals while NZ had 4390. ........

....Jack posts utter bullshit....................................................

.......So all this demonstrates that Jack doesn't just talk with a forked tongue, he talks with his own dick in his mouth.......

.......it is important to understand that nothing he posts can be trusted. ...........................................................

.......So its over to you Jack... 

LB 15 more butt hurt.jpg

133321075_merkelmaconlaughingB.jpg.84dcd25c5d99ad2d14c6baac6b582077.jpg

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, LB 15 said:

Still Austraila would have about 10 deaths in total If only all Australians had simply taken the governments advise in March to return home immediately. We wouldn’t still have the selfish cunts coming home now and bringing their filthy viruses with them. 

"No one put a gun at their heads and made them go overseas"    LB 15  8 February 2021

image.png.22568c6d2b9d3bdbab0fd8f706431db4.png

 - Week 1 March 2021 -  Overseas Australians who are resident overseas asked to STAY PUT by PM & DFAT to enable TOURISTS like LB to return to Australia.

- March 2021 LB & family were part of  921,950 March arrivals into Australia.

- April 2021 - ONLY 21,170 OR 900,780 LESS arrivals after border closed on 20 March, flights and Quarantine commenced on 29 March with limited places.

- There are TODAY 41,000 'stranded Australians' overseas registered with the Government one year later.

"If all these people 'stranded' overseas love Australia so much, they can prove it by not risking the lives of all their countrymen AND STAY THE FUCK AWAY."  (his emphasis)  LB 15   8 February 2021 

"Deaths per million population QLD 1.1" - "And yet only 6 deaths. The lowest number of any state. Go figure"

"I don't understand how anyone can be living more 'covid normal' than we are right now."....LB 15

 

NOMINATIONS NOW OPEN FOR AUSTRALIAN OF THE YEAR

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1 hour ago, LB 15 said:

If anyone could be fucked reading Jacks figures he has quoted they should fact check them before using them. I have only bothered doing it twice and both times what he had claimed were complete fabrications. Still Austraila would have about 10 deaths in total If only all Australians had simply taken the governments advise in March to return home immediately. We wouldn’t still have the selfish cunts coming home now and bringing their filthy viruses with them. 

Could be less than that if NZ is anything to go by.  26 deaths - 5 of them not even tested before or after death.  "Assumed" they had Covid-19.  Another wasn't tested for Covid-19 until AFTER they left MIQ with an unrelated life threatening condition.

 

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6 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Assumed" they had Covid-19.  Another wasn't tested for Covid-19 until AFTER they left MIQ with an unrelated life threatening condition.

So you say no one has died of covid unless they were tested positive. That is a cute way to skew the figures.

The UK just by changing the time of testing to death from nothing to specified as not exceeding 28 days, that dropped daily count and dropped their gross death toll by around 10% mid last year. 

However as all death certificates have 3 or 4 lines for cause of death, there is little uncertainty attached to primary cause without testing. Most stats cover at least 2 measures, incl excess deaths.

The bullshitter keeps bullshitting.

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8 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Could be less than that if NZ is anything to go by.  26 deaths - 5 of them not even tested before or after death.  "Assumed" they had Covid-19.  Another wasn't tested for Covid-19 until AFTER they left MIQ with an unrelated life threatening condition.

 

According to Jack we here in Queensland have twice as many deaths as reported. Go figure. Oh course Jack could always be bullshitting. Like he did about the DEFAT travel notice.

And leg ropes.

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2 hours ago, jack_sparrow said:

So you say no one has died of covid unless they were tested positive. That is a cute way to skew the figures.

The UK just by changing the time of testing to death from nothing to specified as not exceeding 28 days, that dropped daily count and dropped their gross death toll by around 10% mid last year. 

However as all death certificates have 3 or 4 lines for cause of death, there is little uncertainty attached to primary cause without testing. Most stats cover at least 2 measures, incl excess deaths.

The bullshitter keeps bullshitting.

Do you honestly believe what you have just written?  If you do you really have slipped off the edge.

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Do you honestly believe what you have just written?  If you do you really have slipped off the edge.

Well to be honest I've trained a root vegetable to reply to your posts.

I believe Mr Turnip and he assures me his work was peer reviewed by an artichoke and a parsnip.

46,706 on 10 August 2020 revised down by new 28 day rule reduced it by 5.377 to 41,329, which is a 11.5% drop and more than the "around 10%" as he planted there for you.

UK death toll falls by 5,377 as government changes way fatalities are counted in England

Turnip 1.jpg

Turnip 2.jpg

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Jacko your level of obfuscation is of Olympic Gold Medal standard.

Your graphs refer to people who had been TESTED for Covid-19.

Wrong.

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

20% of NZ's record Covid-19 deaths hadn't even been tested either BEFORE or AFTER death

What goes on the 3 lines of a NZ Death Certificate?

Funeral Home phone numbers?

On 3/4/2021 at 3:37 PM, jack_sparrow said:

However as all death certificates have 3 or 4 lines for cause of death, there is little uncertainty attached to primary cause without testing.

 

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On 2/26/2021 at 6:28 AM, BlatantEcho said:

Remind me when all the scary headlines about 'Variants Will Kill Us All!' - is that still happening?  

 

Or, was that another wrong public health prediction?

 

It's been another week, is the wave of variant death still on the way?

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10 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

What goes on the 3 lines of a NZ Death Certificate?

Just because there are 3 lines doesn't mean they have to be filled in.  Not everyone who see's a blank screen needs to fill it with screeds of garbage.

The fact is there was 5 people classified as Covid-19 deaths in NZ that were never ever tested either before or after death.  Therefore how can one conclude that the the cause of death was Covid-19?  

 

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22 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Wrong.

What goes on the 3 lines of a NZ Death Certificate?

Funeral Home phone numbers?

 

Jack! You are Ok! Thank God! We were worried about you mate. Did you use the opportunity to catch up on a few things? Bathing maybe? Changing those sweat stained sheets? Maybe you got the old sock drawer cleaned out?

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31 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:
44 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

What goes on the 3 lines of a NZ Death Certificate?

Just because there are 3 lines doesn't mean they have to be filled in. 

The fact is there was 5 people classified as Covid-19 deaths in NZ that were never ever tested either before or after death. 

You are really keen to to lower NZ death toll by 20% or 26 to 20 with your mandatory test requirement. 

What is the test for a heart attack or after falling off a cliff head and body are seperated?

Don't fill in?? So you don't worry about cause of death on Death Certificates in NZ.

Do they just type "ditto"?

image.png.b051440be5ad2f2f0ec1125127ec143f.png

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20 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Yep the new variant was loose in NZ.

"Loose."???

Hate to see it when it goes from on the "loose" to "fucking gone - out of control - shut the gate".

"On the loose" 4 March NZ - New cases Zero and 7 day average 3. 

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4 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

You are really keen to to lower NZ death toll by 20% or 25 to 20 with your mandatory test requirement. 

 What is the test for a heart attack or after falling off a cliff head and body are seperated?

FFS Jacko.  If an autopsy is required, often it is for an unexplained death, you can determine if the person died from cardiac infarction.  As for your cliff, head body case....

So FIVE people have died - they haven't been tested for Covid-19.  How hard is it to test them for Covid-19?  Just take a teeny weeny swab.  Not hard is it?  Yeah na let's fill in the death certificate and say "assumed to have died from Covid-19"!

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

"Loose."???

Hate to see it when it goes from on the "loose" to "fucking gone - out of control - shut the gate".

"On the loose" 4 March NZ - New cases Zero and 7 day average 3. 

Shit the time off must have really got to you or the alcoholic induced dementia has upped its effects.  Didn't you yourself say that the science didn't support the "weaponisation of the new variants"?  Oh of course that was only when you are discussing the stranded 40k Ozzies who supposedly want to come home.

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1 minute ago, Kate short for Bob said:

So FIVE people have died - they haven't been tested for Covid-19.  How hard is it to test them for Covid-19? 

How hard?

Guess how many in Aust died without without a covid test?

Guess how many around the world?

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Just now, jack_sparrow said:

How hard?

Guess how many in Aust died without without a covid test?

Guess how many around the world?

Tell us Jacko.  You have the world's data at your fingertips and if you don't you make it up.

Jacko there weren't bodies piling up at the morgue to be tested in NZ.  We are talking FIVE swabs.  What's that a total of 15 minutes work?

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8 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Didn't you yourself say that the science didn't support the "weaponisation of the new variants"? 

Yes I believe the variant 30% more infectious not the weaponised 70%. You believe neither.

8 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Oh of course that was only when you are discussing the stranded 40k Ozzies who supposedly want to come home.

Melbourne airport has been closed since 13 February by a state leader weaponising the 70% as the reason. 

And that is inconsistent how?

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1 minute ago, jack_sparrow said:

I believe the variant 30% more infectious not the weaponised 70%

You "believe" based on what science?  The same science that said 70% but your wet finger says its blowing only 30 knots?

3 minutes ago, jack_sparrow said:

Melbourne airport has been closed since 13 February by a state leader weaponising the 70% as the reason. 

And that is inconsistent how?

It's inconsistent because you are inconsistent.  So your estimate of 30% more infectious is acceptable?

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