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1 hour ago, spectator said:

With the leeward runner on, all bets are off and that will greatly effect everything that has to do with keeping direction & control. That load applied in those conditions will override all the other controls, looking at the video wont show you that load being applied. Imagine you're the Jolly Green Giant and you pressed your finger down on the leech/roach on the main while a boat is accelerating , what will the boat do? (we've all been there) Then add foils to the scenario, we then have a boat wanting to do a lift off while attempting a wind check.

This was a classic and typical Oh Fuck scenario/moment during the good old IOR days when leeward runner was on (but not the foiling bit) that made the front cover on a lot of magazines.

  The runners were not the cause,

  Watch from 12 to 16 secs on the vid at 50% speed.

   the boat is starting the round down, loading up getting ready to launch..  

  Watch where the runners hit the leech of the main.  There is very light deflection for that initial load up.

  if the runners were preventing the main to go out they would be pressed way in on the leach.  by 16sec's they were toast, didn't matter what the runners were doing...

  

 

  

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Having a race like that is why the committee was correct in postponing the race so many times. I think that the race was worth the wait.  Cheers to the Race Committee!

Semi Final Race 1 book is open - hit like for an AM win, dislike for LRPP.  Don’t sit on the fence now!

Funny when I click on the cup site I get this:

Posted Images

On 1/18/2021 at 11:16 AM, tDot said:

Any hope of getting the inside scoop? Might make SA boring, but it'd be sorta fun to know the truth.

My cat says "You can't handle the truth"! Who knew he could channel Jack Nicholson?

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1 hour ago, MaxHugen said:

I re-watched it frame by frame. I saw no evidence of the boat having directional control problems, they were going through the bear away as planned. On the other hand I observed when pitch started increasing, to almost a tenth of a second.

Once in the air at something like 30° pitch up, all bets are off.

Did Flight Controller Andrew Campbell Cause AM's Capsize?

No, it's not about flight control. It's the same issue that caused all the other jumps sometimes followed by capsizes. If the boat heels to leeward too much at those reach - broad reach angles, there is no turning back. Until now it always happened while exiting jibes too hot, this time it happened while turning down. 

The problem is that there is no way to depower and restore normal heel angle. Normally they'd just turn downwind to depower, but because of the excessive heel, the boat wants to round up, and the rudder stalls. Since the boat is heeled, stalling the rudder does two things, the boat rounds up (as expected) AND the transom drops down. Just imagine tilting the (usually vertical) axis of yaw rotation to match the heel angle.

As the transom drops low, the AOA of the foil increases suddenly, and the boat leaps out. There is nothing the flight controller can do about it. Letting the main out regardless of how loose the leeward runner is doesn't help either, because that unloads the foil and also makes the boat jump. Neither the traveler not the runner is designed to let the main out more, because it wouldn't help anyway. As Terry said, the runner was probably at its max out - that wasn't the issue. Letting the jib out probably helps, but it's too small to make a big difference.

The only way to avoid the jump is to avoid heeling the boat to lee. The problem was that Dean rushed the turn down after the tack. When they finished the tack, they were already heeling to lee. They should have depowered then, even drop the hull a little in the water, heel the boat to windward, and only then start the turn down. 

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5 minutes ago, erdb said:

No, it's not about flight control. It's the same issue that caused all the other jumps sometimes followed by capsizes. If the boat heels to leeward too much at those reach - broad reach angles, there is no turning back. Until now it always happened while exiting jibes too hot, this time it happened while turning down. 

The problem is that there is no way to depower and restore normal heel angle. Normally they'd just turn downwind to depower, but because of the excessive heel, the boat wants to round up, and the rudder stalls. Since the boat is heeled, stalling the rudder does two things, the boat rounds up (as expected) AND the transom drops down. Just imagine tilting the (usually vertical) axis of yaw rotation to match the heel angle.

As the transom drops low, the AOA of the foil increases suddenly, and the boat leaps out. There is nothing the flight controller can do about it. Letting the main out regardless of how loose the leeward runner is doesn't help either, because that unloads the foil and also makes the boat jump. Neither the traveler not the runner is designed to let the main out more, because it wouldn't help anyway. As Terry said, the runner was probably at its max out - that wasn't the issue. Letting the jib out probably helps, but it's too small to make a big difference.

The only way to avoid the jump is to avoid heeling the boat to lee. The problem was that Dean rushed the turn down after the tack. When they finished the tack, they were already heeling to lee. They should have depowered then, even drop the hull a little in the water, heel the boat to windward, and only then start the turn down. 

its a very long shot but once the boat is layed over the flight controller could theoretically fight the broach while the helm is used to pull the stern down

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BTW, the bright side for AM is that they were actually smoking LR. Both their upwind and downwind VMGs were better.

956743014_uwvmg.png.2d6e040ccc3d281c5e7de0b43010d482.png  1621181662_dwvmg.png.4306aac5dbcde7b82db88a2bca313576.png

AM also matched INEOS in VMG during the first Prada race, they just sailed a bad race. If they can glue their boat back together, it's actually LR that's in trouble. They are sailing well, they do nice maneuvers, but they're slower than both INEOS and AM.

INEOS destroyed them downwind:

601987520_dwvmg.png.3e31f4bb9b0f91e12d8da36572339ab7.png

LR needs to install all the go-fast gear they have by the weekend to see how they perform against INEOS. We will know then how much they held back until now.

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13 minutes ago, breezie said:

its a very long shot but once the boat is layed over the flight controller could theoretically fight the broach while the helm is used to pull the stern down

But you don't want to pull the stern down. That's what causes the boat to jump.

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1 hour ago, erdb said:

The problem is that there is no way to depower and restore normal heel angle. Normally they'd just turn downwind to depower, but because of the excessive heel, the boat wants to round up, and the rudder stalls. Since the boat is heeled, stalling the rudder does two things, the boat rounds up (as expected) AND the transom drops down. Just imagine tilting the (usually vertical) axis of yaw rotation to match the heel angle.

How can you tell that the rudder has stalled?

I see none of the characteristic spray thrown up as the rudder skids sideways, nor does the boat show any signs of rounding up until after the sky leap.

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20 minutes ago, MaxHugen said:

How can you tell that the rudder has stalled?

I see none of the characteristic spray thrown up as the rudder skids sideways, nor does the boat show any signs of rounding up until after the sky leap.

On the heli shot you can see as the stern suddenly kicks out. Another thing I just thought about is that when the boat is heeled over and the rudder starts to lose its grip, the rudder wing could actually generate a significant downforce suddenly since it's angled due to the heel angle. Easier to show:

rudder.JPG.dd65f1678a775e9948a9a197defc27fd.JPG

As the stern moves to port, water pressure from the left pushes the elevator down ---> stern down, nose up, boat jumps out.

 

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2 minutes ago, erdb said:

On the heli shot you can see as the stern suddenly kicks out.

Interesting, haven't seen that - have you a link to the heli footage?

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10 hours ago, dorydude said:

Sudden and nasty..yes, but also very visible. Any competent sailor would have seen that coming.

On the comms there should have been a call like  " big pressure in 5,4,3.." or similar.

 

How many ‘competent’ sailors have ever  approached the upwind mark at over 37kts? 
 

 

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36 minutes ago, erdb said:

On the heli shot you can see as the stern suddenly kicks out. Another thing I just thought about is that when the boat is heeled over and the rudder starts to lose its grip, the rudder wing could actually generate a significant downforce suddenly since it's angled due to the heel angle. Easier to show:

rudder.JPG.dd65f1678a775e9948a9a197defc27fd.JPG

As the stern moves to port, water pressure from the left pushes the elevator down ---> stern down, nose up, boat jumps out.

 

Chuckle

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3 hours ago, erdb said:

Letting the main out regardless of how loose the leeward runner is doesn't help either, because that unloads the foil and also makes the boat jump. Neither the traveler not the runner is designed to let the main out more, because it wouldn't help anyway.

"Terry said, the runner was probably at its max out - that wasn't the issue. Letting the jib out probably helps, but it's too small to make a big difference."

The only way to avoid the jump is to avoid heeling the boat to lee. The problem was that Dean rushed the turn down after the tack. When they finished the tack, they were already heeling to lee. They should have depowered then, even drop the hull a little in the water, heel the boat to windward, and only then start the turn down. 

I seriously doubt the leeward runner was at max out, if you go look at the 10 to 12 second mark and look at the mainsails lower leech fluttering with the leeward running back pressed hard against the leech just above it. Either someone blew the mainsail way below the normal out or the runner was never released and not max out. Seeing that much flutter on the lower main leech generally means excessive loads on the sail.

I believe this is what caused the next steps to happen. It's like what they say in aviation, a typical accident is usually caused by several incidents in a chain of events.

We're all just speculating and really have no clue, we're all just guesstimating out of our butts and until we hear from the team giving us the actual truth and data which in reality they really don't have to tell us anything and why would they? They currently have waaaaay more important things to deal with right now.

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4 hours ago, erdb said:

... They should have depowered then, even drop the hull a little in the water, heel the boat to windward, and only then start the turn down. 

Which is more or less exactly what LR did a few(?) seconds later

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6 hours ago, spectator said:

With the leeward runner on, all bets are off and that will greatly effect everything that has to do with keeping direction & control. That load applied in those conditions will override all the other controls, looking at the video wont show you that load being applied. Imagine you're the Jolly Green Giant and you pressed your finger down on the leech/roach on the main while a boat is accelerating , what will the boat do? (we've all been there) Then add foils to the scenario, we then have a boat wanting to do a lift off while attempting a wind check.

This was a classic and typical Oh Fuck scenario/moment during the good old IOR days when leeward runner was on (but not the foiling bit) that made the front cover on a lot of magazines.

The runner was not the problem. The problem was that they straightlined halfway thru their turn at 90TWD. Then the gust hit and they had nowhere to go. I am absolutely sure that if they kept turning downwind there was no issue. As anyone knows you have to point the bow down as quickly as possible and you do not wait for a puff to hit in the power/danger zone. More so in conditions at the upper part of the scale.  This is standard procedure in all craft without a keel these days

It looked liked they went for an offset mark...

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4 hours ago, erdb said:

BTW, the bright side for AM is that they were actually smoking LR. Both their upwind and downwind VMGs were better.

956743014_uwvmg.png.2d6e040ccc3d281c5e7de0b43010d482.png  1621181662_dwvmg.png.4306aac5dbcde7b82db88a2bca313576.png

AM also matched INEOS in VMG during the first Prada race, they just sailed a bad race. If they can glue their boat back together, it's actually LR that's in trouble. They are sailing well, they do nice maneuvers, but they're slower than both INEOS and AM.

INEOS destroyed them downwind:

601987520_dwvmg.png.3e31f4bb9b0f91e12d8da36572339ab7.png

LR needs to install all the go-fast gear they have by the weekend to see how they perform against INEOS. We will know then how much they held back until now.

Ha! Going fast is only part of the solution. You have to ga fast in the right direction. You have to start well and pull off slick manouvres. In all these things AM was lagging behind. LR and Ineos are doing quite ok. It is Am that should look at improving their race craft. Points are only given at the finish line

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On 1/18/2021 at 9:21 AM, Only Fools Rush In said:

Patriot... why do Americans always choose these pathetic names? It seems like if you don’t wave the flag all day long you’re considered an outcast.
 

It’s just a shame and embarrassing. 

Personally I think your comment is what's embarrassing. Some hidden complex maybe? Are you not proud of who you are and where you come from?

Because that's  what a flag represents (among other things)

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On 1/17/2021 at 9:39 PM, dullers said:

I agree. The hole is to neat for a smash through by gear. That hole was cut i think on purpose to enable floatation bags to be inserted. I think there was a hole caused by something that smashed through but it would be messy and splintered. They cut the panel with the damage into shove in floatation. I think it was part of the salvage job. The divers on scene i suspect would carry cutting devices as part of the rescue gear to rescue a trapped crewmember.

Dont read my posts anymore. They contain errors caused by the sponge part of my brain. I never post sober.

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5 hours ago, erdb said:

LR needs to install all the go-fast gear they have by the weekend to see how they perform against INEOS. We will know then how much they held back until now.

Can you do those charts for the abandoned race against the frackers?   I thought LR looked like they were smoking in that race and then again for the first part of the rerun.   I think the wind then dropped a little and then they had a VMG deficit.   Perhaps they could have gone with a slightly larger jib, so they were a bit more ragged when the pressure was on, but faster when not so much pressure.    I'm sure I had advice like "setup for the lulls and hold on for the puffs!" 

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3 minutes ago, sfigone said:

Can you do those charts for the abandoned race against the frackers?   I thought LR looked like they were smoking in that race and then again for the first part of the rerun.   I think the wind then dropped a little and then they had a VMG deficit.   Perhaps they could have gone with a slightly larger jib, so they were a bit more ragged when the pressure was on, but faster when not so much pressure.    I'm sure I had advice like "setup for the lulls and hold on for the puffs!" 

I think LR were quicker upwind (offset by UK better tactics), but UK looked to have a bigger advantage downwind

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5 minutes ago, dullers said:

Dont read my posts anymore. They contain errors caused by the sponge part of my brain. I never post sober.

Go for it... it's better to have a stab at explaining something, than to bag others whilst offering nothing. IMO. ;)

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22 minutes ago, sfigone said:

Can you do those charts for the abandoned race against the frackers?   I thought LR looked like they were smoking in that race and then again for the first part of the rerun.   I think the wind then dropped a little and then they had a VMG deficit.   Perhaps they could have gone with a slightly larger jib, so they were a bit more ragged when the pressure was on, but faster when not so much pressure.    I'm sure I had advice like "setup for the lulls and hold on for the puffs!" 

It's called being out of phase. Quite surprised they stayed that way for so long and how many times as it was pretty obvious even on the first leg and they had several chances to correct it,  LR would go to the correct favored side after the rounding but then not protect it and the frackers used it to there advantage, stayed in phase and it really showed as they approached the rounding. They also, I think they messed up on the start not closing the door more on the frackers when they could of.

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19 minutes ago, MaxHugen said:

Go for it... it's better to have a stab at explaining something, than to bag others whilst offering nothing. IMO. ;)

Thanks Max. It would be a boring forum if we all got it right.  

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6 minutes ago, spectator said:

It's called being out of phase. Quite surprised they stayed that way for so long and how many times as it was pretty obvious even on the first leg and they had several chances to correct it,  LR would go to the correct favored side after the rounding but then not protect it and the frackers used it to there advantage, stayed in phase and it really showed as they approached the rounding. They also, I think they messed up on the start not closing the door more on the frackers when they could of.

One of the commentators talked about Prada having the better hull shape for the waves. INEOS was slamming a bit so they were flying her higher but slower. I thought it was an interesting comment.  I was also thinking that Prada was hungrier for the point. INEOS again showed how good their after  guard were as they still ended up round the last mark first. They read the wind shift very well.  I was also thinking how much thought was going into not damaging the boats as well?

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7 hours ago, spectator said:

^ And I thought just having the caps on while posting was bad enough.

Big letters for those who are "hard of sailing".

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6 hours ago, Nutta said:

My cat says "You can't handle the truth"! Who knew he could channel Jack Nicholson?

It is my cat. What are you doing to it to make go to your house?

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44 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

I think LR were quicker upwind (offset by UK better tactics), but UK looked to have a bigger advantage downwind

Yes it was a race of wind shifts nothing between the boats and IMO it begs the question going forward, if boats are equal we have Ineos & Giles Scott vs Luna Rossa and the 2 x Helmsman Jimmy & Fran. Giles seemed to be clear and precise and on Luna Rossa hard to tell who was calling the shots, Jimmy more than anyone? Giles so far is the pick and that gives them an advantage at the moment IMO. 

 

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6 hours ago, erdb said:

BTW, the bright side for AM is that they were actually smoking LR. Both their upwind and downwind VMGs were better.

956743014_uwvmg.png.2d6e040ccc3d281c5e7de0b43010d482.png  1621181662_dwvmg.png.4306aac5dbcde7b82db88a2bca313576.png

AM also matched INEOS in VMG during the first Prada race, they just sailed a bad race. If they can glue their boat back together, it's actually LR that's in trouble. They are sailing well, they do nice maneuvers, but they're slower than both INEOS and AM.

INEOS destroyed them downwind:

601987520_dwvmg.png.3e31f4bb9b0f91e12d8da36572339ab7.png

LR needs to install all the go-fast gear they have by the weekend to see how they perform against INEOS. We will know then how much they held back until now.

Finally a graph i can understand.

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8 hours ago, Stingray~ said:

True! Lol

Since there are only two teams left involved for this weekend’s racing, and both are Challs, and it is a Prada Cup thing not anything to do with the Defender, it’s a touch curious why ‘there has to be unanimous agreement by the teams’ - again given that there only two..

It will likely be a "Protocol Thing" and as such will have to have unanimous agreement

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4 minutes ago, shanghaisailor said:

It will likely be a "Protocol Thing" and as such will have to have unanimous agreement

So I guess they will need to agree if they:

1) have to start the AM races to get the point. Sail the course?

2) race each other twice on the same day, or over two days. If they stick to the schedule if they can't agree to a change in format,  then Prada/INEOS race Friday and Sunday.  Getting out race management two days more cost but at least second TV day. 

3) if prada beat INEOS twice, then on count back by the RI Prada will go to the final as they would have won the last race between them

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18 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

So I guess they will need to agree if they:

1) have to start the AM races to get the point. Sail the course?

2) race each other twice on the same day, or over two days. If they stick to the schedule if they can't agree to a change in format,  then Prada/INEOS race Friday and Sunday.  Getting out race management two days more cost but at least second TV day. 

3) if prada beat INEOS twice, then on count back by the RI Prada will go to the final as they would have won the last race between them

But irrespective of whether there is unanimous agreement, UK and LR could agree not to turn out for the AM no-shows. As long as neither do then they cancel out and they make no difference to the score. Though it does require some trust between them.

 

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5 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

But irrespective of whether there is unanimous agreement, UK and LR could agree not to turn out for the AM no-shows. As long as neither do then they cancel out and they make no difference to the score. Though it does require some trust between them.

 

They could even agree to donate both wins to AM as a show of solidarity with the battle the team have to get back on the water in full race condition!

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6 hours ago, spectator said:

I seriously doubt the leeward runner was at max out, if you go look at the 10 to 12 second mark and look at the mainsails lower leech fluttering with the leeward running back pressed hard against the leech just above it. Either someone blew the mainsail way below the normal out or the runner was never released and not max out. Seeing that much flutter on the lower main leech generally means excessive loads on the sail.

I believe this is what caused the next steps to happen. It's like what they say in aviation, a typical accident is usually caused by several incidents in a chain of events.

We're all just speculating and really have no clue, we're all just guesstimating out of our butts and until we hear from the team giving us the actual truth and data which in reality they really don't have to tell us anything and why would they? They currently have waaaaay more important things to deal with right now.

As Terry explained, the runner has its range. He said he wasn't sure it was completely released, but he didn't think that was the issue. My take on it is that they have a max out setting which is loose enough for normal operations, but it gets in the way when the main is dropped completely. Maybe the thinking is that if the main needs to be out there, they're screwed already.

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6 hours ago, alphafb552 said:

Which is more or less exactly what LR did a few(?) seconds later

Yes, but of course they had the advantage of knowing that AM is capsized and it doesn't matter how quickly they turn around.

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5 hours ago, underperformer said:

Ha! Going fast is only part of the solution. You have to ga fast in the right direction. You have to start well and pull off slick manouvres. In all these things AM was lagging behind. LR and Ineos are doing quite ok. It is Am that should look at improving their race craft. Points are only given at the finish line

Maybe, but they did race very well in the ACWS. So they're certainly capable of doing it. They just had a couple of bad days. Maybe what they needed is shock therapy :D. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the Prada final.

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3 hours ago, winchfodder said:

So I guess they will need to agree if they:

1) have to start the AM races to get the point. Sail the course?

2) race each other twice on the same day, or over two days. If they stick to the schedule if they can't agree to a change in format,  then Prada/INEOS race Friday and Sunday.  Getting out race management two days more cost but at least second TV day. 

3) if prada beat INEOS twice, then on count back by the RI Prada will go to the final as they would have won the last race between them

1) most likely have to at least start to prove they are able to start. I would imagine that like most races there is a starting window after which the other team would be considered to be 'not racing' and the race would be awarded. Have to admit that here I am guessing as haven't read that part of the Protocol or SI's

2) Yeah, apart from the obvious loss to AM, the loss to TV coverage and I assume revenue would be the next big thing but again guessing as i don't think an actual decision has yet been made by ACM and Regatta Director Ian Murray.

3) Correct. If Prada beats INEOS twice the score is 4-4 and as is pretty standard in such a situation the boat that performed better i the last race would get the 'countback' 

But as I said I haven't recently read the protocol so some of the above is what would be 'normally done' in a regatta and the AC36 may be different

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5 hours ago, sfigone said:

Can you do those charts for the abandoned race against the frackers?   I thought LR looked like they were smoking in that race and then again for the first part of the rerun.   I think the wind then dropped a little and then they had a VMG deficit.   Perhaps they could have gone with a slightly larger jib, so they were a bit more ragged when the pressure was on, but faster when not so much pressure.    I'm sure I had advice like "setup for the lulls and hold on for the puffs!" 

As far as I know, data from the abandoned race is not posted unfortunately. The problem with having a larger jib than necessary is extra drag, so it's a little more complicated than let's have the biggest sail we can still carry.

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5 hours ago, enigmatically2 said:

I think LR were quicker upwind (offset by UK better tactics), but UK looked to have a bigger advantage downwind

You're right, LR did have a small advantage in upwind VMG, and their tactics were mostly good, too. INEOS was out of phase initially, but then made a big gain on a shift around 600 - 750 sec on the graph below, plus they were much faster downwind.

160257896_uwvmg.png.80ea00ae64ba486d5edf782628c60c81.png  favtack.png.775f36a07e541660117b3c552f95f2a3.png

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1 minute ago, erdb said:

Hmm, but then how did the bananas also hit the hole on the hull? :D

All I know is that they were a major factor.

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One possible contributing factor to the AM Patriot capsize might be the significant wind shift that had already occurred near the top marks.  It appears, that coming into the top marks , they were sailing in about a 30 degree port tack lift.  So after they tacked around the left mark, and were attempting to bear away, they would have been in a 30 degree starboard jibe header.  If the helmsman attempted to assume a heading similar to prior off wind runs, he may have gotten caught beam reaching in pressure - which I understand is not the AC75 strong suit.  Perhaps driving off more quickly to a much lower AWA might have avoided the problem.

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5 hours ago, enigmatically2 said:

I think LR were quicker upwind (offset by UK better tactics), but UK looked to have a bigger advantage downwind

I wonder if INEOS has targeted downwind over upwind because of the better VMG average?

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Just found this on the other thread. Kenny explains it much better:

Although at the end he says once the rudder is "lost" it could go either down or up. I'd argue that from what we saw with other similar accidents, the stern always go down and the boat always jumps out.

 

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9 minutes ago, shanghaisailor said:

3) Correct. If Prada beats INEOS twice the score is 4-4 and as is pretty standard in such a situation the boat that performed better i the last race would get the 'countback' 

But as I said I haven't recently read the protocol so some of the above is what would be 'normally done' in a regatta and the AC36 may be different

Do we know this?

Currently it is Ineos vs Prada 2:0  .   Including AM it is Ineos vs Prada 4:2

If we assume that AM doesnt show and Prada wind both races

It would be 2:2  and 6:6 

Tied up.  

If in event of a tie, it is decided by the last race then Ineos has to win one of two races, Prada has to win both.

If in an event of a tie, there is a sail off, then it actually improves Ineos' odds because they only have to win one of three. 

The loser then has to go back and race AM in the semi

If AM was fixed in time (unlikely) AM cannot mathematically make it to the final without all three boats being tied at 4 wins each. It would need AM to win all 4 races 2 each vs Ineos and Prada , and then Prada to win both races vs Ineos.  I think it is fairly unlikely for Ineos to go 0 and 4.  So I think AM will do the math and take the time to fix the boat right.

 

 

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4 hours ago, terrafirma said:

Yes it was a race of wind shifts nothing between the boats and IMO it begs the question going forward, if boats are equal we have Ineos & Giles Scott vs Luna Rossa and the 2 x Helmsman Jimmy & Fran. Giles seemed to be clear and precise and on Luna Rossa hard to tell who was calling the shots, Jimmy more than anyone? Giles so far is the pick and that gives them an advantage at the moment IMO. 

 

Listening to the dialogue i get the feeling Jimmy is in charge and has to keep tabs on the more excitable Fran....

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43 minutes ago, erdb said:

Here, around 1:05:

What do you think?

 

90% sure the rudder didn't lose it until after AM was airborne, in the still below you can clearly see the rudder wake, still looks OK.

Later today, I'll see about matching it up with the other video, using the rounding of the mark. I know almost exactly when the pitch started going up, so I'll see if it checks out.

Saw the Kenny Read video, he just pointed out the effect from where he was watching the LSD video, but not the cause.

image.png.67ee734e8931fedb59f6a30bef937a3e.png

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

Do we know this?

Currently it is Ineos vs Prada 2:0  .   Including AM it is Ineos vs Prada 4:2

If we assume that AM doesnt show and Prada wind both races

It would be 2:2  and 6:6 

Tied up.  

If in event of a tie, it is decided by the last race then Ineos has to win one of two races, Prada has to win both.

If in an event of a tie, there is a sail off, then it actually improves Ineos' odds because they only have to win one of three. 

The loser then has to go back and race AM in the semi

If AM was fixed in time (unlikely) AM cannot mathematically make it to the final without all three boats being tied at 4 wins each. It would need AM to win all 4 races 2 each vs Ineos and Prada , and then Prada to win both races vs Ineos.  I think it is fairly unlikely for Ineos to go 0 and 4.  So I think AM will do the math and take the time to fix the boat right.

 

 

Think it through again!

It would only be a tie 6:6 if Prada beat INEOS twice. In that case Prada goes through to the final on last race count back.  INEOS would then have to race AM in the repercharge. 

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18 hours ago, eric e said:

the day after the event

AM base had lots of yellow dive bottles sitting out

almost like they were waiting for a refill:o)

 

I would guess most of those were needed to inflate the flotation devices ;)

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27 minutes ago, winchfodder said:

Think it through again!

It would only be a tie 6:6 if Prada beat INEOS twice. In that case Prada goes through to the final on last race count back.  INEOS would then have to race AM in the repercharge. 

I said exactly that.

If the SIs are final race countback, then Ineos has to win one of two races vs Prada. Prada has to win both

 

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12 hours ago, erdb said:

No, it's not about flight control. It's the same issue that caused all the other jumps sometimes followed by capsizes. If the boat heels to leeward too much at those reach - broad reach angles, there is no turning back. Until now it always happened while exiting jibes too hot, this time it happened while turning down. 

The problem is that there is no way to depower and restore normal heel angle. Normally they'd just turn downwind to depower, but because of the excessive heel, the boat wants to round up, and the rudder stalls. Since the boat is heeled, stalling the rudder does two things, the boat rounds up (as expected) AND the transom drops down. Just imagine tilting the (usually vertical) axis of yaw rotation to match the heel angle.

As the transom drops low, the AOA of the foil increases suddenly, and the boat leaps out. There is nothing the flight controller can do about it. Letting the main out regardless of how loose the leeward runner is doesn't help either, because that unloads the foil and also makes the boat jump. Neither the traveler not the runner is designed to let the main out more, because it wouldn't help anyway. As Terry said, the runner was probably at its max out - that wasn't the issue. Letting the jib out probably helps, but it's too small to make a big difference.

The only way to avoid the jump is to avoid heeling the boat to lee. The problem was that Dean rushed the turn down after the tack. When they finished the tack, they were already heeling to lee. They should have depowered then, even drop the hull a little in the water, heel the boat to windward, and only then start the turn down. 

The above post seems mostly correct, but I am not sure about the last paragraph. 

Early on, I went and reviewed the video with continuous chopper footage for the rounding and the crash (I can not find it now) and the continuous video from the stern.  The overhead video lets you get a better feel for boat heading and boat heel, while the other video lets you see the main trim, the steering wheel and it gives boat speed.   

On a boat that is constantly being balanced on one forward foil and a rudder foil, trimming the main out is your preferred method of controlling heel.  Changing boat direction is your secondary method. 

Early in the rounding the main is trimmed full out (traveler hard up against the stop).  It stays there until the boat has crashed.  

As they go around the mark, they do a little hull splash.  This is bad as it drops boat speed.  For this kind of rounding, lower boat speeds bring wind AWA aft and give you more sail loading.

Coming out of the rounding they are briefly heading down and out toward the side in a stable heel with the boat accelerating rapidly.  However, boat speed does not get high enough to allow trimming the main in to regain margin for using the main trim to control heel.

After a couple of seconds of hard acceleration and looking good, they get hit with the gust/shift. 

Normally going downwind, the boat speed is higher than wind speed and letting out the traveler or turning down unloads the sail.  With the boat speed not high enough at this point, the traveler is still full out and turning down is the only heel control they have.  This is exactly what Dean does, but with the gust / shift, the sail load stays too high and the heel continues to get worse.  The boat is riding very high at this point and eventually the rudder loses grip, the stern drops and the boat heads for the sky.   

The bear away at the top mark is considered to be much higher risk than a normal tack or jibe.  The reason is that you have to keep boat speed high enough to keep wind AWA forward enough to not overload the sail.  Normally, everything works and if you "drive it hard" you pull it off.  This time, the change in wind speed and wind direction was equivalent to "taking your foot off" in that boat speed was lower than typical for the wind speed (because it increased) as they exited the rounding.  The wind shift probably contributed in that it made the eventual turn down ineffective at unloading the sail. 

Dean and Goody did not have any obvious opportunity to do anything "better" as best I could tell.  When the gust/shift hit, the main was full out and the boat speed was too low to change course and unload the sail.  The boat has limits on how far the main goes out and the timing and magnitude of the wind gust / shift just exceeded their ability to cope with it.  They may have failed in their execution, but I am still waiting for a fact based explanation of what action (or inaction) was "wrong" and how this led to the roll over prior to the jump.

People are also second guessing that they kept with their prior choice to "stay left".  This choice seems to have been made well before they got to the mark based on seeing light wind to the right (with the potential for a race loosing splash down off of the foils) .  They may have seen that the wind speed was going to increase.  Some wind speed increase is ok.  To bail out of this decision at the last minute would mean that they needed to see the magnitude of the speed increase, see that the shift was going to make it worse, processing that these were going to combine to exceed their ability to cope, and do this all in the 5 to 10 seconds prior to Dean sending Goody to the other side. 

AM has demonstrated that they wanted to be able to drive hard in strong conditions.  They practiced hard (both B1 and B2) in lots of wind even when others did not go out.   I really want to hear a detailed explanation of the sequence from someone that has experience in top mark roundings in all condition in a boat that does more than 2x wind speed and is greater than 20' in length.  Since we seem to have a shortage of posts from these folks, some discussion from those seriously trying to understand the variables and control options for managing heel on these boats is good.  However, others seem to be jumping in and second guessing without any real understanding.    

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3 minutes ago, P Flados said:

Early on, I went reviewed the video with continuous chopper footage for the rounding and the crash (can not find it now) and the video from the stern.  The overhead video lets you get a better feel for boat heading and boat heel, while the other video lets you see the main trim, the steering wheel and it gives boat speed.   

On a boat that is constantly being balanced on one forward foil and a rudder foil, trimming the main out is your preferred method of controlling heel.  Changing boat direction is your secondary method. 

Early in the rounding the main is trimmed full out (traveler hard up against the stop).  It stays there until the boat has crashed. 

As they go around the mark, the do a little hull splash.  This is bad as it drops boat speed and for this kind of rounding, lower boat speeds bring wind AWA aft and give you more sail loading.

Coming out of the rounding they are briefly heading down and out toward the side in a stable heel with the boat accelerating rapidly.  However, boat speed does not get high enough to allow trimming the main in to regain margin for using the main trim to control heel.

After a couple of seconds of hard acceleration and looking good, they get hit with the gust/shift. 

Normally going downwind, the boat speed is higher than wind speed and letting out the traveler or turning down unloads the sail.  With the boat speed not high enough at this point, the traveler is still full out and turning down is the only heel control they have.  This is exactly what Dean does, but with the gust / shift, the sail load stays too high and the heel continues to get worse.  The boat is riding very high at this point and eventually the rudder loses grip, the stern drops and the boat heads for the sky.   

The bear away at the top mark is consider to be much higher risk than a normal tack or jibe.  The reason is that you have to keep boat speed high enough to keep wind AWA forward enough to not overload the sail.  Normally, everything works and if you "drive it hard" you pull it off.  This time, the change in wind speed and wind direction was equivalent to "taking your foot off" in that boat speed was lower than typical for the wind speed (because it increased) as they exited the rounding.  The wind shift probably contributed in that it made the eventual turn down ineffective at unloading the sail. 

Dean and Goody did not have any obvious opportunity to do anything "better" as best I could tell.  When the gust/shift hit, the main was full out and the boat speed was too low to change course and unload the sail.  The boat has limits on how far the main goes out and the timing and magnitude of the wind gust / shift just exceeded their ability to cope with it.  They may have failed in their execution, but I am still waiting for a fact based explanation of what action (or inaction) was "wrong" and how this led to the roll over prior to the jump.

People are also second guessing that they kept with their prior choice to "stay left".  This choice seems to have been made well before they got to the mark based on seeing light wind to the right (with the potential for a race loosing splash down off of the foils) .  They may have seen that the wind speed was going to increase.  Some wind speed increase is ok.  To bail out of this decision at the last minute would mean that they needed to see the magnitude of the speed increase, see that the shift was going to make it worse, processing that these were going to combine to exceed their ability to cope, and do this all in the 5 to 10 seconds prior to Dean sending Goody to the other side. 

AM has demonstrated that they wanted to be able to drive hard in strong conditions.  They practiced hard (both B1 and B2) in lots of wind even when others did not go out.   I really want to hear a detailed explanation of the sequence from someone that has experience in top mark roundings in all condition in a boat that does more than 2x wind speed and is greater than 20' in length.  Since we seem to have a shortage of posts from these folks, some discussion from those seriously trying to understand the variables and control options for managing heel on these boats is good.  However, there seems to be a lot of jumping in and second guessing without any real understanding.    

The only thing they could have done better is waiting a few seconds before bearing away. Based on: https://ac36.herokuapp.com/stats_app there are only at about 31kts boat speed when they start the bear away. Considering they are at 40+ before the tack, they probably need to accelerate to above 35kts while close-hauled before attempting to turn down. These guys obviously have way more experience than I do, but the fundamental issue was not anything that happened during the maneuver. Once they started to turn down while down speed in a puff physics took over.

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The basic tack straight into a rounding seems to be a standard "but higher risk" maneuver. 

The tack, pause briefly and build up speed and then turn down does seem more in control. 

When the Brits did a bunch of these in earlier races, they made the point of lining up for not being just below the near mark when getting to the top.  In hindsight, an earlier tack from the left boundary would have set them up much better.  With all of the wind shifts and wind holes, I am not sure how much opportunity they had to plan that far in advance.    

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Seems to me the biggest loss for American Magic is the loss of additional development time, I expect they'll get back on the water.

Instead of spending their time tweaking and testing the changes, getting more speed and/or more stability in maneuvers, they are rebuilding a broken boat.

Meanwhile, the other teams are focused solely on improvements to their boats, strategies, and techniques.

 

I expect Luna Rossa and Ineos to continue making incremental improvements.  AM may well add some new stuff they had in the pipeline while they're in the shed, but they will not have a lot of time to work with it.

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2 hours ago, P Flados said:

The above post seems mostly correct, but I am not sure about the last paragraph. 

Early on, I went and reviewed the video with continuous chopper footage for the rounding and the crash (I can not find it now) and the continuous video from the stern.  The overhead video lets you get a better feel for boat heading and boat heel, while the other video lets you see the main trim, the steering wheel and it gives boat speed.   

On a boat that is constantly being balanced on one forward foil and a rudder foil, trimming the main out is your preferred method of controlling heel.  Changing boat direction is your secondary method. 

Early in the rounding the main is trimmed full out (traveler hard up against the stop).  It stays there until the boat has crashed.  

As they go around the mark, they do a little hull splash.  This is bad as it drops boat speed.  For this kind of rounding, lower boat speeds bring wind AWA aft and give you more sail loading.

Coming out of the rounding they are briefly heading down and out toward the side in a stable heel with the boat accelerating rapidly.  However, boat speed does not get high enough to allow trimming the main in to regain margin for using the main trim to control heel.

After a couple of seconds of hard acceleration and looking good, they get hit with the gust/shift. 

Normally going downwind, the boat speed is higher than wind speed and letting out the traveler or turning down unloads the sail.  With the boat speed not high enough at this point, the traveler is still full out and turning down is the only heel control they have.  This is exactly what Dean does, but with the gust / shift, the sail load stays too high and the heel continues to get worse.  The boat is riding very high at this point and eventually the rudder loses grip, the stern drops and the boat heads for the sky.   

The bear away at the top mark is considered to be much higher risk than a normal tack or jibe.  The reason is that you have to keep boat speed high enough to keep wind AWA forward enough to not overload the sail.  Normally, everything works and if you "drive it hard" you pull it off.  This time, the change in wind speed and wind direction was equivalent to "taking your foot off" in that boat speed was lower than typical for the wind speed (because it increased) as they exited the rounding.  The wind shift probably contributed in that it made the eventual turn down ineffective at unloading the sail. 

Dean and Goody did not have any obvious opportunity to do anything "better" as best I could tell.  When the gust/shift hit, the main was full out and the boat speed was too low to change course and unload the sail.  The boat has limits on how far the main goes out and the timing and magnitude of the wind gust / shift just exceeded their ability to cope with it.  They may have failed in their execution, but I am still waiting for a fact based explanation of what action (or inaction) was "wrong" and how this led to the roll over prior to the jump.

People are also second guessing that they kept with their prior choice to "stay left".  This choice seems to have been made well before they got to the mark based on seeing light wind to the right (with the potential for a race loosing splash down off of the foils) .  They may have seen that the wind speed was going to increase.  Some wind speed increase is ok.  To bail out of this decision at the last minute would mean that they needed to see the magnitude of the speed increase, see that the shift was going to make it worse, processing that these were going to combine to exceed their ability to cope, and do this all in the 5 to 10 seconds prior to Dean sending Goody to the other side. 

AM has demonstrated that they wanted to be able to drive hard in strong conditions.  They practiced hard (both B1 and B2) in lots of wind even when others did not go out.   I really want to hear a detailed explanation of the sequence from someone that has experience in top mark roundings in all condition in a boat that does more than 2x wind speed and is greater than 20' in length.  Since we seem to have a shortage of posts from these folks, some discussion from those seriously trying to understand the variables and control options for managing heel on these boats is good.  However, others seem to be jumping in and second guessing without any real understanding.    

Excellent post!

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2 hours ago, P Flados said:

.............................I really want to hear a detailed explanation of the sequence from someone that has experience in top mark roundings in all condition in a boat that does more than 2x wind speed and is greater than 20' in length.  Since we seem to have a shortage of posts from these folks, some discussion from those seriously trying to understand the variables and control options for managing heel on these boats is good.  However, others seem to be jumping in and second guessing without any real understanding.    

This!

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1 hour ago, P Flados said:

The basic tack straight into a rounding seems to be a standard "but higher risk" maneuver. 

The tack, pause briefly and build up speed and then turn down does seem more in control. 

When the Brits did a bunch of these in earlier races, they made the point of lining up for not being just below the near mark when getting to the top.  In hindsight, an earlier tack from the left boundary would have set them up much better.  With all of the wind shifts and wind holes, I am not sure how much opportunity they had to plan that far in advance.    

Is the 2 step really safer?  I’m still trying to get an answer to the question of using the windward foil with negative lift.   It seems some teams are doing this, but to leave both foils in the water you need a one quick turn so that you don’t slow down too much and fall off the foils.  Seems in the 2-step that Am did, they had to pull the windward foil before the major bare away....  and over she went.

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5 hours ago, erdb said:

What do you think?

I've done my best to correlate the timed images I snipped before, to the overhead video, and added the approx pitch at the timed intervals. It's certainly not definitive, but I was able to match a couple of time points within 1-2 tenths of a second, such as when they did the bearaway.

Looking at the rudder wake during the bearaway, pitch was initially slightly up but relatively stable, then an acceleration in pitch from 1.5° to 3.5°, and beyond. Note that the maximum pitch I measured of 22° was a further 1.3 secs after this pic was snapped.

To me it still looks like they would have had rudder control during the 1.5 to 3.5 pitch increase, which was in a time span of just one second... but who knows?

image.thumb.png.8ff97ec514dcf758fe910b59fcd72b1b.png

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17 hours ago, TodB said:

Do we really know how responsive the FCS is?  Seems like it went from “situation normal” to “oh shit” in about two seconds.  Would a control input to the FCS even work fast enough to make a difference?

Designed cycle is 3 seconds from normal sailing position to fully raised - using the accumulator. It would require a substantially higher-capacity hydraulic power pack to deliver the volume required for the arm to respond within the time between the rearing and the crash.

A poster somewhere else posted that LR's arms were being raised and lowered faster than any of the other competitors'. The only way they could achieve this is by reducing the size of the twin hydraulic rams for each arm from 100mm. ID and Piston diameter of  80mm, to 80mm and 70mm respectively, because they alls use the same hydraulic power packs. With a total weight of 1385kgs, there's enough power to raise them even at half the designed sizes...

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1 minute ago, Indio said:

Designed cycle is 3 seconds from normal sailing position to fully raised - using the accumulator. It would require a substantially higher-capacity hydraulic power pack to deliver the volume required for the arm to respond within the time between the rearing and the crash.

A poster somewhere else posted that LR's arms were being raised and lowered faster than any of the other competitors'. The only way they could achieve this is by reducing the size of the twin hydraulic rams for each arm from 100mm. ID and Piston diameter of  80mm, to 80mm and 70mm respectively, because they alls use the same hydraulic power packs. With a total weight of 1385kgs, there's enough power to raise them even at half the designed sizes...

supplied 1 design items so doubt they would be allowed to do that.

could they have the lightest foils? i.e on the min weight requirement where the others are at max weight?

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Going by the amount of this style of wipeout (virtually every syndicate has had one or more) I’m wondering  if there is a major design fault that needs remedying. Shit, the so called squall/gust was only 20 kts. Do they need to work out how to  depower the rig faster or steer better with that tiny amount of rudder in the water??? They are amazing sailboats but I’m not sure if they are sorted out enough to race, let alone in the Americas Cup.  

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They were on the edge of the puff in the tack. It was way more than 20kn. A minute later when LR showed up it might have gotten back down to 20kn but my recollection was it was still higher than that.

And yes, I was at the top mark.

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3 minutes ago, Indio said:

Designed cycle is 3 seconds from normal sailing position to fully raised - using the accumulator. It would require a substantially higher-capacity hydraulic power pack to deliver the volume required for the arm to respond within the time between the rearing and the crash.

A poster somewhere else posted that LR's arms were being raised and lowered faster than any of the other competitors'. The only way they could achieve this is by reducing the size of the twin hydraulic rams for each arm from 100mm. ID and Piston diameter of  80mm, to 80mm and 70mm respectively, because they alls use the same hydraulic power packs. With a total weight of 1385kgs, there's enough power to raise them even at half the designed sizes...

Thanks.  I was thinking more about the speed of adjustments to the foil flaps and rudder rake.

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Just prior to the -1.5 point above (in the post by Max with the officially sanctioned yellow lines), the boat was in control and accelerating rapidly.  The boat heel angle change to +1 is where the boat was just overpowered.  It was accelerating but not going fast enough to handle the wind speed increase and direction change.  

From the image above, I would say that Dean responded to the heel angle change from -1.5 to +1 by turning down.  

Goody stated in the video by AM that they just "did not get through the power zone fast enough".  Normally these boats rapidly accelerate going through this maneuver and get through the "power zone" quickly enough to stay flat.  

I am not sure how much control they have to depower the rig other than just put the traveler full out (they did) and sheet the jib out (I am pretty sure they did this also).   Is there anything they can do to quickly dump power up top to restore heel angle while retaining power down low (as needed to get back to the desired boat speed vs. wind speed)?

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46 minutes ago, MaxHugen said:

I've done my best to correlate the timed images I snipped before, to the overhead video, and added the approx pitch at the timed intervals. It's certainly not definitive, but I was able to match a couple of time points within 1-2 tenths of a second, such as when they did the bearaway.

Looking at the rudder wake during the bearaway, pitch was initially slightly up but relatively stable, then an acceleration in pitch from 1.5° to 3.5°, and beyond. Note that the maximum pitch I measured of 22° was a further 1.3 secs after this pic was snapped.

To me it still looks like they would have had rudder control during the 1.5 to 3.5 pitch increase, which was in a time span of just one second... but who knows?

image.thumb.png.8ff97ec514dcf758fe910b59fcd72b1b.png

Add to that would be the wind angles coming off the gust front and where they were positioned with respect to the gust front curve

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6 minutes ago, Jono said:

They were on the edge of the puff in the tack. It was way more than 20kn. A minute later when LR showed up it might have gotten back down to 20kn but my recollection was it was still higher than that.

And yes, I was at the top mark.

Must have been an amazing spectacle to be there to see, just watching it on my iPad was a blowout!! I have raced fast multis for years so know how scary that top mark rounding can be but I sure would like a bit more depowering an steering control than these missiles have!!

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Ps. Forgot to say that I thought I had seen a graph showing that it was 20kt max ?

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12 minutes ago, he b gb said:

Ps. Forgot to say that I thought I had seen a graph showing that it was 20kt max ?

Graph from here: https://ac36.herokuapp.com/stats_app

12kts wind speed at ~60 seconds before the rounding. Steady pressure increase starts 15 seconds later and builds to ~23kts with ~30 seconds before the mark. This matches the video, things start to get very wild and there is the big ease call. Wind speed is fairly steady from that peak to the point of the capsize. There is a shift occurring during this time as well.

Note: USA data seems smoothed and doesn't pick up small variations. The data from ITA has more spikes so there definitely potential that they were in a 25kts puff while rounding.

image.thumb.png.6e816bcf5f5e5d98d7e51a6f9071f31c.png

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I tried to extract AM TWS from the above.

I got 

18:20 23.5
18:25 22.0
18:30 11.5
18:35 6.0
18:40 48.0

Peak for the time zone below: 54

After the down spike, the next spike up is probably bogus with the mast going underwater.

try2.png

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Anything after 18:15 can be assumed as bad data as it is after the big wipeout. Pitch and heel graphs are shown below. Relevant wind for the tack and bear away is 18:00-18:15, which doesn't indicate a dramatic increase during the turn.

image.thumb.png.2fc442d7ffd56419514d9f339936fcfd.png

image.thumb.png.c4178e9b25a2da74a3bee8e092966685.png

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S99,  Thank you for the additional data. 

Unless something is screwy with the clock info, the graph of AM TWS seems to have completely missed the gust that we saw hit them when watching videos.  This goes along with the the way the AM TWS line looks a lot smoother than would be expected. 

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The teams have by several accounts not come to any agreement to a race schedule change for the coming weekend. Since only two teams are scheduled to race, it is presumably a disagreement between LR and Ineos. What position would you take if you were one of those two teams? What’s the advantage in forcing your opponent to go the distance through Sunday, with another configuration measurement and freeze due a week from the first one this Wednesday? 

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6 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

The teams have by several accounts not come to any agreement to a race schedule change for the coming weekend. Since only two teams are scheduled to race, it is presumably a disagreement between LR and Ineos. What position would you take if you were one of those two teams? What’s the advantage in forcing your opponent to go the distance through Sunday, with another configuration measurement and freeze, due a week from the first one this Wednesday? 

Ineos.  We want to race LR. With agreement from AM just hold racing between us and LR.

 

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8 minutes ago, P Flados said:

S99,  Thank you for the additional data. 

Unless something is screwy with the clock info, the graph of AM TWS seems to have completely missed the gust that we saw hit them when watching videos.  This goes along with the the way the AM TWS line looks a lot smoother than would be expected. 

AM is definitely providing smoothed TWS data. It'll give a good idea of what's going on but will make rapid changes less visible. I do think their data lines up with what we see on video quite well. The puff hits at ~17:30, 30 seconds before the mark. This is accompanied by a left-hand shift, the shift continues as the pressure holds steady. This is why their close reach into the mark on port looks hairy and full-on. They were already sailing on the limit by the time they got to the mark, the puff and shift weren't sudden. What made the maneuver hard was high winds and a large turning angle, not a mid-turn sudden gust.

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4 minutes ago, chesirecat said:

Ineos. No change. We want to race LR.

If you are Ineos and want to face LR in the Prada Cup final instead of Magic, then surely you’d want to give LR more dev time for LR’s semi’s matchup v AM? 

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