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2 hours ago, Horn Rock said:

Terry looked the most shell shocked in the Presser. They didn't hang around after the race either. Today was an eye opener for them - it just didn't go the way they thought, and if they lose the first race tomorrow, they'll be in last place. No one imagined that for the "strongest" of the challengers.

Yup, agreed, Terry did not look happy

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Having a race like that is why the committee was correct in postponing the race so many times. I think that the race was worth the wait.  Cheers to the Race Committee!

Semi Final Race 1 book is open - hit like for an AM win, dislike for LRPP.  Don’t sit on the fence now!

Funny when I click on the cup site I get this:

Posted Images

2 hours ago, winchfodder said:

Betting adjusted! Did any of you in NZ get some early money on the frackers?

Surprising that the handbags faired the worst as they looked the most likely to challenge upwind vs frackers.

 

Screenshot_20210115-094202_Chrome.jpg

I got on a couple of bucks at 11:1

Probably should have gone more... Many races to go though (and lighter winds I suspect). 

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5 minutes ago, D_Dog said:

I got on a couple of bucks at 11:1

Probably should have gone more... Many races to go though (and lighter winds I suspect). 

Looks like a good punt now. Even spare to lay off with cover bets!

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8 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

A4E is getting pretty excited on Magnus's blog. There's another chap called James. I have no idea who he is, but I suspect he posts in here.

I saw the A4e stuff, pretty funny how he loves ben now. 
the other bloke isn’t the biggest fan of a Magnus it looks like 

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3 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

pretty funny how he loves ben now. 

Yeah he loves the boats now too - which is a huge turn around.

4 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

the other bloke isn’t the biggest fan of a Magnus it looks like 

Well at least he's polite on Magnus's blog......not that he isn't polite in here as well........once you get to know him.......

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3 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

Yeah he loves the boats now too - which is a huge turn around.

Well at least he's polite on Magnus's blog......not that he isn't polite in here as well........once you get to know him.......

You know him?

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5 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

It’s quite possible that more than one person thinks he is a cunt? 

For sure...there's a few in here that haven't been shy in expressing their opinion of Magnus. I don't mind him - some of his writing is quite entertaining, which is something I appreciate  when having a read - regardless of whether I agree with him or not.

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Being the first time I've seen these boats compete a few observations:

1- its cool, but courses are too short and boundaries too narrow.  It's like high school sailing where the start is everything.  Short course limits passing lanes.

2- Prada was way better than American Magic.  Prada was pretty hosed at the start and actually took 10 seconds back on leg 5.  Magic had a better start at least being bow out and to leeward but could not get the lee bow and continued to fall back, (Yes Jimmy did better trying to play the favored side where Magic kept going to the unfavored side but....)

3- Of the skippers on the course yesterday who has LOST the most Americas Cup races?  Sure, Jimmy has won more but how many of those were with Sir Ben on board...? Hmmm....

4- Dual helm bad for Prada- it's a boat sailing with split personalities.

5- Ben and INEOS put on a clinic.  IF they got that boat dialed in, (which is not impossible remember his experience with ORacle in San Fran?) then this thing just got turned upside down and reminds me of NYYC's effort in Australia back in 87.  First team to hit the water and first team to be outclassed in the boat speed dept....

6- All in all fun stuff and not horrible for a first blush on this new platform.  It could be more exciting if the corners could get extended/longer course/20 more minutes of sailing.

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1 hour ago, RobbieB said:

Being the first time I've seen these boats compete a few observations:

1- its cool, but courses are too short and boundaries too narrow.  It's like high school sailing where the start is everything.  Short course limits passing lanes.

2- Prada was way better than American Magic.  Prada was pretty hosed at the start and actually took 10 seconds back on leg 5.  Magic had a better start at least being bow out and to leeward but could not get the lee bow and continued to fall back, (Yes Jimmy did better trying to play the favored side where Magic kept going to the unfavored side but....)

3- Of the skippers on the course yesterday who has LOST the most Americas Cup races?  Sure, Jimmy has won more but how many of those were with Sir Ben on board...? Hmmm....

4- Dual helm bad for Prada- it's a boat sailing with split personalities.

5- Ben and INEOS put on a clinic.  IF they got that boat dialed in, (which is not impossible remember his experience with ORacle in San Fran?) then this thing just got turned upside down and reminds me of NYYC's effort in Australia back in 87.  First team to hit the water and first team to be outclassed in the boat speed dept....

6- All in all fun stuff and not horrible for a first blush on this new platform.  It could be more exciting if the corners could get extended/longer course/20 more minutes of sailing.

The first observation is great and reminds me of a coaching clinic I was at with Hutchinson. He said:

     1. In college racing and short/constrained course racing 90% is protecting the right side and last starboard (granted different boats than what we were being coached)

     2. You have to control the start since so few races in short courses are won from behind.

     3. Know when to keep the dog on the leash and when to let it off, in most short course racing, you have to let the dog off the leash or you will get eaten. 

These races are only 20 minutes long, so I thought is was interesting to see how things played out in race 1.

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20 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

How much money has gone into this, and they have to share a mic for the press conference? 

I've seen local kids sailing awards look more professional

It has the added bonus of maintaining decorum so no interjects or talks over each other. 

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Predictions for tomorrow?

Yes I know the winds will be lighter, but I think LR and UK will win, leaving AM 0-3 and in an unhappy place.. I know much/most of their loss was poor tactics and that can change overnight, but they looked down on VMG to me

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2 hours ago, XPRO said:

The first observation is great and reminds me of a coaching clinic I was at with Hutchinson. He said:

     1. In college racing and short/constrained course racing 90% is protecting the right side and last starboard (granted different boats than what we were being coached)

     2. You have to control the start since so few races in short courses are won from behind.

     3. Know when to keep the dog on the leash and when to let it off, in most short course racing, you have to let the dog off the leash or you will get eaten. 

These races are only 20 minutes long, so I thought is was interesting to see how things played out in race 1.

I don't know if the first point is particularly applicable here, especially considering the fact that its an upwind gate, not a singular mark. Agree on the importance of starting though.

Also I find it interesting that THutch put such emphasis on protecting the right side in college sailing, because in my experience, in most college venues, protecting the right doesn't count for shit when there's 2-3 30+ degree shifts and at least as many wind holes per upwind.

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7 hours ago, chuso007 said:

There were less than 10k viewers when I logged into Youtube, I don't think there were many non-sailors...

I suffered threw it

Did Not want to keep watching them play follow the leader

But stayed to not miss the Train Wreck that never happened 

This Cup is made for commercial interruptions.. not going to miss a thing

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3 minutes ago, DA-WOODY said:

I suffered threw it

Did Not want to keep watching them play follow the leader

But stayed to not miss the Train Wreck that never happened 

This Cup is made for commercial interruptions.. not going to miss a thing

Bye bye 

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7 minutes ago, DA-WOODY said:

I suffered threw it

Did Not want to keep watching them play follow the leader

But stayed to not miss the Train Wreck that never happened 

This Cup is made for commercial interruptions.. not going to miss a thing

Wait for the full replay and put youtube speed to 2X.  Skip the mid race delay.  Its much better.  Thats my plan for the next few races.

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3 hours ago, XPRO said:

     3. Know when to keep the dog on the leash and when to let it off, in most short course racing, you have to let the dog off the leash or you will get eaten. 

 

I have no idea what that means?

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6 hours ago, JALhazmat said:

the other bloke isn’t the biggest fan of a Magnus it looks like 

@Horn Rock said his name was James? I wonder... do we have anyone on SA who's username starts with a J that thinks Magnus needs some feedback?  :lol:

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42 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

Bye bye 

As much as I hate these boats, I actually though the racing wasn't too bad.

I didn't get a chance to watch it live (the beach was calling), but enjoyed the replays well enough.

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2 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

So Auckland locals, what made the right so favoured? Is there some topography we weren't seeing on the video?

just the usual north head suck

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17 minutes ago, dogwatch said:

OK, that means something to you but not to me. Can you expand on that please?

There's a little bit in here

TBH Given the outgoing tide, I wonder if AM were thinking the current around North Head was going to add drag penalties on the right that made any stronger wind less meaningful.. it did seem like an odd call purely from a wind point of view.

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26 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

@Horn Rock said his name was James? I wonder... do we have anyone on SA who's username starts with a J that thinks Magnus needs some feedback?  :lol:

That’s a fun accusation.. care to proceed? 
 

there are more than one james questioning Magnus and his approach so don’t be a dick about it. 
 

 

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Just now, JALhazmat said:

That’s a fun accusation.. care to proceed? 

Sheesh, with two wins under your teams belt, you'd think you'd be a bit more chipper mate... I'll save the friendly banter for the others then.... <sniff>...

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2 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

Sheesh, with two wins under your teams belt, you'd think you'd be a bit more chipper mate... I'll save the friendly banter for the others then.... <sniff>...

Perfectly chipper thanks

don't appreciate the insinuation that’s all

 

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3 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

Perfectly chipper thanks

don't appreciate the insinuation that’s all

 

The insinuation you made an entirely innocent and pleasant post supporting INEOS on another website? OK...

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Ridge persists with NW change tomorrow hope for a repeat of yesterday’s conditions.
Variable 5 knots. Southwest 15 knots developing this afternoon, easing to 10 knots early evening, and to variable 5 knots late evening. Sea slight. Fine, apart from morning and evening cloud.

92624A94-0F0F-46F0-BB76-39C1BD26A77A.thumb.jpeg.92ee2f1856f78411aa88c61001621278.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Priscilla said:

Ridge persists with NW change tomorrow hope for a repeat of yesterday’s conditions.
Variable 5 knots. Southwest 15 knots developing this afternoon, easing to 10 knots early evening, and to variable 5 knots late evening. Sea slight. Fine, apart from morning and evening cloud.

92624A94-0F0F-46F0-BB76-39C1BD26A77A.thumb.jpeg.92ee2f1856f78411aa88c61001621278.jpeg

So should be okay for race time.

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5 hours ago, loneshark64 said:

All day...

And Nick H is probably somewhat vindicated on the design front? There were suggestions he'd never work in AC again...

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8 minutes ago, Priscilla said:

Ridge persists with NW change tomorrow hope for a repeat of yesterday’s conditions.
Variable 5 knots. Southwest 15 knots developing this afternoon, easing to 10 knots early evening, and to variable 5 knots late evening. Sea slight. Fine, apart from morning and evening cloud.

92624A94-0F0F-46F0-BB76-39C1BD26A77A.thumb.jpeg.92ee2f1856f78411aa88c61001621278.jpeg

Geez Priscilla this isobar map is next to useless!  See the big fat H?  It means high pressure.  See the distance between the isobars?  That depicts SFA wind.  However NZ has a largely maritime climate and is affected by localised conditions driven by local sea and land temperature particularly during a High Pressure scenario.  Your forecast is for a rather large area and is irrelevant.

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9 minutes ago, marlowe said:

So should be okay for race time.

Marginal.  Should near to the lower limits.  8 knots at best.  Westerly so lots of effects from the city buildings and North Head.  They will probably head out to Course A where they were for the Christmas Cup.

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9 minutes ago, marlowe said:

So should be okay for race time.

Hoping so but this is the sparking Waitemata and anything is possible.

The positive is how hot it has been and the afternoon sea breeze.

A course change would be in order given yesterday’s follow fest on patchy shifty course C if it gets light and no action tomorrow’s change will see a shift to the W and N which will entail a shift and hopefully better racing.

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31 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Remember the Christmas Cup?  Looks like being a floater today.

image.png.08d43dee5a40850c97a4968e9fb16fe7.png

image.png.94719965dc3b4795ed288196c6f17813.png

Please dear Gawd no! 
 

This class of boats are FOILERS! They look stupid-stupid stupid-squared in displacement mode. 

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10 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Geez Priscilla this isobar map is next to useless!  See the big fat H?  It means high pressure.  See the distance between the isobars?  That depicts SFA wind.  However NZ has a largely maritime climate and is affected by localised conditions driven by local sea and land temperature particularly during a High Pressure scenario.  Your forecast is for a rather large area and is irrelevant.

Hah it’s not uncommon to have no isobars in sight for days and it will blow bloody murder for days welcome to the Hauraki Gulf.

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13 minutes ago, Nutta said:

And Nick H is probably somewhat vindicated on the design front? There were suggestions he'd never work in AC again...

Somewhat vindicated. Maybe. Depends how the boat performs over the range.

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4 hours ago, Miffy said:

It has the added bonus of maintaining decorum so no interjects or talks over each other. 

Where's the fun in that?

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33 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

The insinuation you made an entirely innocent and pleasant post supporting INEOS on another website? OK...

So now an accusation. Lovely.

if I wanted to converse with him I would and it would be plain as day. not sure what your angle is on this? 

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7 minutes ago, Priscilla said:

Hah it’s not uncommon to have no isobars in sight for days and it will blow bloody murder for days welcome to the Hauraki Gulf.

That's why it is pointless showing a country wide Isobar map.

If you want accuracy then go to localised models - even the upper North Island would be better.  I can't see where a 15 knot South Westerly is coming from.  Even the main Metservice forecast for Auckland is predicting on 9 knots.

rain-nzni-2021011512-012.gif

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6 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

Where's the fun in that?

There is a bit of fun in the silly ‘only one mike’ setup; they are all keen to hand the mike off; JS did it twice yesterday, before even knowing who the next question would be directed to, as if to make the mike-acceptor uncomfortable. It was actually pretty funny! I’m sure intended to be, too :D 

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Just now, Stingray~ said:

There is a bit of fun in the silly ‘only one mike’ setup; they are all keen to hand the mike off; JS did it twice yesterday, before even knowing who the next question be be directed to, as if to make the mike-acceptor uncomfortable. It was actually pretty funny! I’m sure intended to be, too :D 

Jimmy is well into the mind games. He made a comment last night, something like, "the biggest loser out of Day 1 of the Prada Cup, may well be ETNZ". I'll see if I can post the quote.

Gotta love that Aussie shit stirrer! ;-)

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Nah, biggest loser was AM, followed by LR... 

Jimmy needs fact checking.

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7 minutes ago, Nutta said:

Nah, biggest loser was AM, followed by LR... 

The biggest winner to my mind was Giles Scott, and whoever all helped pick that the right was going to be the best guess. 

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1 hour ago, dogwatch said:

So Auckland locals, what made the right so favoured? Is there some topography we weren't seeing on the video?

North Head is a small volcano (about 50 of them in Auckland) about 180 feet high.  So it creates eddies in the wind from the west but it also tends to hug or channel to the right.  Rangitoto the big volcano Island accentuates this effect.  You also have a tidal effect as where the course was yesterday a lot of water flows in and out of the inner harbour.  A huge area to drain and flood beyond the harbour Bridge too.

image.png.0b7daf036772490972a9e120de988859.png

image.png.131cdfca846439ef20c2cec22c55c1c4.png

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19 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

That's why it is pointless showing a country wide Isobar map.

If you want accuracy then go to localised models - even the upper North Island would be better.  I can't see where a 15 knot South Westerly is coming from.  Even the main Metservice forecast for Auckland is predicting on 9 knots.

rain-nzni-2021011512-012.gif

Great to see you making an effort rather than moaning about mine keep it up.

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8 hours ago, JALhazmat said:

its rather pathetic his change of tune, saying he has been and bought team clothing to show his support is utterly cringe inducing 

as for being welcomed back ever again? that rather assumes he was welcome in the first place...

Say what you want about Gladwell, but he has been one of the only "Journalists" providing AC news and pics over the last few months. He''s been down on the water giving us what we all wanted when the cycle went quiet, so credit where its due.

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its glass out the window, sea breeze should kick in, re North Head the wind bends in there plus theres a current reversal but thats inside the harbour but significantly less current close the western side of the course. Theres often in increase of SW as you approach North Head - say 500m out and thats also on western side.

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7 minutes ago, Forourselves said:

Say what you want about Gladwell, but he has been one of the only "Journalists" providing AC news and pics over the last few months. He''s been down on the water giving us what we all wanted when the cycle went quiet, so credit where its due.

Gladwell is ok,  he's decent enough to give you a reach around as well

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3 minutes ago, Horn Rock said:

What's a reach around?

It's where you round the mark after a reaching leg, obviously.

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Well, in case opening up any US newspaper didn't convince you,  watching that races makes it 100% certain that we're all living in a simulation, and someone brought their kid to work and said brat is just flipping all the switches at random

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15 hours ago, MaxHugen said:

Race 1:  "...their [ITUK]  VMG hovering at and above a mind blowing 40 knots."

Must have happened when I was swearing at VPN issues!

 

I think it is a misunderstanding by the journo.

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4 minutes ago, RMac said:

Well, in case opening up any US newspaper didn't convince you,  watching that races makes it 100% certain that we're all living in a simulation, and someone brought their kid to work and said brat is just flipping all the switches at random

I think the simulation that we are living in is being run by the kid full time. 

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

That's why it is pointless showing a country wide Isobar map.

If you want accuracy then go to localised models - even the upper North Island would be better.  I can't see where a 15 knot South Westerly is coming from.  Even the main Metservice forecast for Auckland is predicting on 9 knots.

rain-nzni-2021011512-012.gif

Doesn't this setup for good counterflow for the NE sea breeze?  I'm not sure if the sea breeze is NNE or ENE, but it looks like the gradient should help the sea breeze today, no?

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3 hours ago, dogwatch said:

I have no idea what that means?

 

2 hours ago, cinnr said:

I took "dog off leash" to mean aggressive, potentially risky maneuvers (i.e. boat-to-boat combat).  Maybe @XPRO can clarify?

Pretty sure he meant that you need to know when to loose cover and when to tight cover, the insinuation being that you can't tight cover 2nd for an entire fleet race leg and not expect to get gained on by someone else.

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59 minutes ago, Priscilla said:

Great to see you making an effort rather than moaning about mine keep it up.

I made an effort earlier with the posting a screenshot of the Windy forecast with a course overlay.  An app that I've used for many many years while fishing all round Waitemata and the Hauraki Gulf.

The screen was even localised down to a 10 mile radius of the courses.

You post a weather map that covers 10s of thousands of square kilometres and even includes parts of Australia.

I hope you are American because that would explain it but I'd be embarrassed if I was a NZ'er who had any experience of the course areas.

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12 minutes ago, Thistle3841 said:

Doesn't this setup for good counterflow for the NE sea breeze?  I'm not sure if the sea breeze is NNE or ENE, but it looks like the gradient should help the sea breeze today, no?

Who knows as it is impossible to predict accurately.  Given the low winds forecast it will be a sea breeze versus land breeze scrap.  Currently 3 knots.  Still only forecast to max at 8 knots around race time.  Will be damn interesting to see INEOS in this condition.

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16 hours ago, Indio said:

I'm wondering whether ETNZ have helped sort out Ineos' control issues - Sir Ben was the only one in Bermuda who provided materials with no questions to help with the repairs to ETNZ's AC50, and they don't forget.

Ineos looked very steady with a consistent ride-height.

I have heard rumours that ETNZ sold Inneos their system that integrates with the FCS. Source is people who could in theory have that knowledge but I somehow doubt ETNZ would do this. Unless inneos has agreed to help ETNZ practice after the Prada Cup. 

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1 minute ago, Rudder_NZ said:

I have heard rumours that ETNZ sold Inneos their system that integrates with the FCS.

Let’s hope that, if it happened, the offer was made to everyone.. 

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bold (this is the thick black line) - MSLP
green - temperature
dash - 10m gusts
the other two lines are 10 and 20m winds.

The directions in the plot are in magnetic. Will put in true if I post an update as I believe they do all their numbers in true. Variation down here is about 20E.

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32 minutes ago, Expedition said:

bold (this is the thick black line) - MSLP
green - temperature
dash - 10m gusts
the other two lines are 10 and 20m winds.

The directions in the plot are in magnetic. Will put in true if I post an update as I believe they do all their numbers in true. Variation down here is about 20E.

Doesnt it update with actuals?  I would suggest that so far today it has overstated the wind strength.

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2 hours ago, Forourselves said:

Say what you want about Gladwell, but he has been one of the only "Journalists" providing AC news and pics over the last few months. He''s been down on the water giving us what we all wanted when the cycle went quiet, so credit where its due.

Not talking about Gladwell

it referenced Magnus. 

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46 minutes ago, Rudder_NZ said:

I have heard rumours that ETNZ sold Inneos their system that integrates with the FCS. Source is people who could in theory have that knowledge but I somehow doubt ETNZ would do this. Unless inneos has agreed to help ETNZ practice after the Prada Cup. 

Yes that’s literally the only explanation isn’t it.

not even 24hrs before the bullshit stars with main sail herbie, secret deals buying kiwi tech.. 

 

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6 minutes ago, JALhazmat said:

Yes that’s literally the only explanation isn’t it.

not even 24hrs before the bullshit stars with main sail herbie, secret deals buying kiwi tech.. 

 

Some people just can’t help themselves...cocks.

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Who knows as it is impossible to predict accurately.  Given the low winds forecast it will be a sea breeze versus land breeze scrap.  Currently 3 knots.  Still only forecast to max at 8 knots around race time.  Will be damn interesting to see INEOS in this condition.

An offshore breeze due to pressure helps a sea breeze start and strengthen, it doesn't fight it

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There appears to be a widespread consensus that it is certain death if Ineos is not competitive across the wind range. I don't understand this.

If, hypothetically, a boat is faster in everything over, say, 11 knots  what difference does it make if she is a dog below that? So what if she can't foil and is DNF in every race under 11 knots. Who cares? That would still be enough, in probability terms, to win any series if the distribution between 6.5 knots and 23 knots is anything like normal even if not "normal."

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38 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Doesnt it update with actuals?  I would suggest that so far today it has overstated the wind strength.

It is just initialised with the GFS etc. every 3 hours. If the GFS is doing ok, it should do ok too. There should be an update from the 18z data in a few minutes

The met office has gusts to 7km/hr at present. The WRF has 4.8/4.9 G 6.5kt

https://www.metservice.com/weather-station-location/NZBNW/bean-rock

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10 minutes ago, SF Woody Sailor said:

There appears to be a widespread consensus that it is certain death if Ineos is not competitive across the wind range. I don't understand this.

If, hypothetically, a boat is faster in everything over, say, 11 knots  what difference does it make if she is a dog below that? So what if she can't foil and is DNF in every race under 11 knots. Who cares? That would still be enough, in probability terms, to win any series if the distribution between 6.5 knots and 23 knots is anything like normal even if not "normal."

That very much depends on luck then, if they make the challengers final, and the whole thing is raced in light conditions then they'll be fucked. 

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