Zonker

1 in Every 1000 Americans Dead from Covid-19

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(CNN) - The United States reached a grim milestone on Saturday: 1 in 1,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 since the country’s first reported infection in late January. The statistic is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Johns Hopkins University. On Saturday, the national death toll from COVID-19 reached 331,909, while the U.S. population is estimated to be around 330,750,000.

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its fake news. just a conspiracy to get Trump out of the white house. im sure those people were all Trump supporters and their deaths is how Biden  and his cronies stole the election.

 

put on a fucking mask. over your mouth and nose.

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1 in every 700 Americans died of smoking this year.  Covid has a ways to go to catch it. Death toll from cigarettes is 480,000.

 

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23 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

1 in every 700 Americans died of smoking this year.  Covid has a ways to go to catch it. Death toll from cigarettes is 480,000.

 

I'm not so sure about how far to go to catch up. How many of those died from less than a years exposure to cigarettes.

Covid deaths in December to December 23:  57,683

Annualizing December (times 365.25/23) gives 916,000 per annum AND accelerating.

or 1 in every 361 Americans at current rate annualized....so put that in your pipe and smoke it, or if we are doing cigarettes put that in your zigzag and roll it.

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18 minutes ago, KC375 said:

I'm not so sure about how far to go to catch up. How many of those died from less than a years exposure to cigarettes.

Covid deaths in December to December 23:  57,683

Annualizing December (times 365.25/23) gives 916,000 per annum AND accelerating.

or 1 in every 361 Americans at current rate annualized....so put that in your pipe and smoke it, or if we are doing cigarettes put that in your zigzag and roll it.

But a lot of the people dying from COVID are Cigarette smokers and the cause of death is recorded as Covid not smoking.

Here you go. From WHO, the last sentence sums it up.

What is the risk of severe COVID-19 disease and death amongst smokers?

Meta-analyses:

Zhao et al.35 analysed data from 7 studies (1726 patients) and found a statistically significant association between smoking and severity of COVID-19 outcomes amongst patients (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% CI 1.3 – 3.1). The statistical significance disappeared when the largest study by Guan et al.13 was removed from the analysis (a sensitivity test to see the impact of a single study on the findings of the meta-analysis). An updated version of this meta-analysis which included an additional study remained significant when this same sensitivity test was applied however.36 Zheng et al.37 analysed data from 5 studies totalling 1980 patients and found a statistically significant association between smoking and COVID-19 severity when using a fixed effects model: OR: 2.0 (95% CI 1.3 – 3.2). Lippi et al.38 analysed data from 5 studies totalling 1399 patients and found a non-significant association between smoking and severity. Guo et al., 39 however, later identified errors in the calculation and concluded that this association was indeed statistically significant (OR 2.2 (95% CI 1.3 – 3.7). Vardavas et al.40 analysed data from 5 studies totalling 1549 patients and calculated a relative risk that indicated a non-significant relationship between smoking and severity of COVID-19. However, the same authors found a statistically significant association between smoking status and primary endpoints of admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU), ventilator use or death.

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As my father (a prof at one of Canada’s leading med schools) used to say. Life is a fatal disease.

In fact their is a 100% correlation between live birth and ultimately death. No one has yet to survive this (with potentially a disputed resurrection that I don’t buy).

So for round numbers let’s take the COVID-19 deaths in December at 1/350 per annum. Then let’s say 100% of the smoking deaths in December showed up as Covid deaths instead of smoking deaths i.e. then the remaining deaths 1 in 700, would be incremental due to Covid (and yes some of those incremental 1/700 may also have been smokers dying earlier than they otherwise would have)...on that basis incremental deaths from C1 would only be equivalent to smoking deaths....that is a very conservative approach to incremental and so far C-19 deaths are accelerating.

Though I agree smoking deaths are a problem. I don’t see in the December data that smoking is more deadly than Covid.

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16 minutes ago, KC375 said:

As my father (a prof at one of Canada’s leading med schools) used to say. Life is a fatal disease.

In fact their is a 100% correlation between live birth and ultimately death. No one has yet to survive this (with potentially a disputed resurrection that I don’t buy).

So for round numbers let’s take the COVID-19 deaths in December at 1/350 per annum. Then let’s say 100% of the smoking deaths in December showed up as Covid deaths instead of smoking deaths i.e. then the remaining deaths 1 in 700, would be incremental due to Covid (and yes some of those incremental 1/700 may also have been smokers dying earlier than they otherwise would have)...on that basis incremental deaths from C1 would only be equivalent to smoking deaths....that is a very conservative approach to incremental and so far C-19 deaths are accelerating.

Though I agree smoking deaths are a problem. I don’t see in the December data that smoking is more deadly than Covid.

 

Tobacco related deaths in the US average around 480,000 pa.

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm

 

I don't see cities going into lockdown and people losing their shit about it and I'm pretty sure it's still ridiculously easy to buy cigarettes in the US .

The hysterical Covid figures we see should rather  be accompanied by excess mortality stats which would show a lot less scary situation.

...and I'll just leave this here ..

https://www.cspinet.org/eating-healthy/why-good-nutrition-important

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40 minutes ago, dorydude said:

 

Tobacco related deaths in the US average around 480,000 pa.

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm

 

I don't see cities going into lockdown and people losing their shit about it and I'm pretty sure it's still ridiculously easy to buy cigarettes in the US .

The hysterical Covid figures we see should rather  be accompanied by excess mortality stats which would show a lot less scary situation.

 

Well you bring up a few interesting strands.

How would you compare the severity of something that is typically exposed over decades before death related to it to something that takes weeks to months to cause death?

How do you compare something that an individual chooses to do and leads to their death with something that an individual does not actively choose to do but still leads to their death? (Yes second hand smoke is not a choice and that is why we have some of the smoking restrictions we have.)     

You are absolutely right that excess mortality is the better metric as some people who would have died of something else got counted as Covid deaths AND PEOPLE WHO DIED OF COVID MAY NOT HAVE BEEN COUNTED AS COVID DEATHS.

In fact given the weak testing regime everywhere and notably in the US  A LOT OF COVID DEATHS HAVE NOT BEEN CLASSED AS COVID deaths.

For example this study published this month in JAMA suggest for a not terribly susceptible group Adult Males 25-44 that COVID DEATHS COULD BE 2.5 TIMES GREATER THAN REPORTED.

Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, inadequate testing in this otherwise healthy demographic likely contributed. These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been under detected in this population.

So for very simple math if you adjust for excess mortality  (in that particular study, that particular cohort etc.) then in December Covid caused between 2.5 and 5 times more deaths than smoking...AND the rate of Covid deaths is accelerating. Just wait until Christmas and New Year gatherings work through the population. (I sure hope I'm being pessimistic rather than realistic)

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2 hours ago, woodpecker said:

1 in every 700 Americans died of smoking this year.  Covid has a ways to go to catch it. Death toll from cigarettes is 480,000.

 

All that comparison shows is how dumb smokers are.

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This just in!

"This was unexpected. ...And it hit the world. And we're prepared, and we're doing a great job with it.

And it will go away. 

Just stay calm and it will go away...

trump-GettyImages-1208533546.jpg
 
Covid 19 in the US is not only a virus...it may also be caused by a parasite.

“This was unexpected. … And it hit the world. And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with it. And it will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”

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Meanwhile, 1 in every 3.4 million Taiwanese have died of Covid 19.  What a difference competent leadership and a cooperative population who give a shit about their fellow citizens can make.

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On 12/27/2020 at 2:02 PM, woodpecker said:

1 in every 700 Americans died of smoking this year.  Covid has a ways to go to catch it. Death toll from cigarettes is 480,000.

 

Don't forget, a bunch of those are dead from covid, not the grapefruit sized tumor.

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On 12/28/2020 at 6:11 PM, Steve said:

Meanwhile, 1 in every 3.4 million Taiwanese have died of Covid 19.  What a difference competent leadership and a cooperative population who give a shit about their fellow citizens can make.

Not to distract from the thrust of your point, but what about the differences I have read about on a continental basis? Without any research for this, and going on things I have read over the last while, it seems that the death rate among Asians is much lower than it is in South America. Does anyone have any analysis on this? Could it be exposure over the years to similar viruses in some places but not in others? 

 

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5 minutes ago, danstanford said:

Not to distract from the thrust of your point, but what about the differences I have read about on a continental basis? Without any research for this, and going on things I have read over the last while, it seems that the death rate among Asians is much lower than it is in South America. Does anyone have any analysis on this? Could it be exposure over the years to similar viruses in some places but not in others? 

 

good effective government policies focused by scientific epidemiology works - there's no need to go hunting for alternative explanations for why locations without the virus, vs places being spread around by ignorant undisciplined people are places where more people are dying. 

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1 in every 875 Americans has now died from Covid-19

331 M / 378,121 = 875

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12 hours ago, Zonker said:

1 in every 875 Americans has now died from Covid-19

331 M / 378,121 = 875

AND

at the rate in December annualized (using nbc data) 1 in 400 are dying at an annual rate.

AND January will be worse.

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You are aware that this is a new disease right? And has killed a lot of people. Yes, most are old, and some would have died anyway. 

But what sort of monster tries to minimize these excess deaths?

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1 hour ago, Zonker said:

You are aware that this is a new disease right? And has killed a lot of people. Yes, most are old, and some would have died anyway. 

But what sort of monster tries to minimize these excess deaths?

A soul-less orange menace. And those that believe him. That sort.

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1 in 775 in the US has died due to Covid-19

(NY Times Jan 27)  330,000,00 / 425,000 = 775

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On 12/28/2020 at 9:39 AM, woodpecker said:

But a lot of the people dying from COVID are Cigarette smokers and the cause of death is recorded as Covid not smoking.

totally get it man, fake news, like all the deaths from guns that are actually the result of blood loss or organ failure..... 

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On 10/01/2021 at 7:21 AM, Zonker said:

But what sort of monster tries to minimize these excess deaths?

The same type that week after week quote country death league tables and make numerical comparisons to everything from the Civil War to 9-11?

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

The same type that week after week quote country death league tables and make numerical comparisons to everything from the Civil War to 9-11?

And what is wrong with such comparisons? You think it is just great that more people are dying in the US every single day now than died in 9-11? Just stay in your little closeted world down under where you don't have any skin in the game. We do!

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This is an example of why we die. Same mentality in a more densely populated place for asymptomatic chains after superspreader events...because live free or die. Well, make that I live free, somebody else dies...

 

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2021/01/27/breaking-news/vandals-cut-through-fencing-used-to-close-off-little-beach-at-makena-state-park/

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6 hours ago, TheDragon said:

And what is wrong with such comparisons? You think it is just great that more people are dying in the US every single day now than died in 9-11? Just stay in your little closeted world down under where you don't have any skin in the game. We do!

What is wrong is it only sensationalises a meaningless number in terms of the pandemic.  It is just as meaningless as me saying that in a normal year 3 times the number of people that died in 9-11 die everyday in the USA.  We then dive down the rabbit hole firing counter point statistics at each other and become blind to the truth.

Headline:  Larry King dies of Covid-19 related condition.  Fact:  Age 87, had recovered from Covid-19, in 2019 had a stroke that left him in a coma, had heart disease, terminal lung cancer, prostate cancer.  Statistic:  Covid-19 death?

9-11 fatalities were caused by terrorists exploiting systemic flaws in systems made by man.  Covid-19 is a virus that we think we can manage and eliminate.  Our historical record would show that although that is an admirable goal it isn't one that we have been very successful at achieving.

According to WHO 720 million people (possibly more) have had Covid-19 and fully recovered.  Isn't that something to celebrate?  Doesn't THAT statistic show that whatever we do the human race will survive?

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7 hours ago, TheDragon said:

And what is wrong with such comparisons? You think it is just great that more people are dying in the US every single day now than died in 9-11? Just stay in your little closeted world down under where you don't have any skin in the game. We do!

Put your delay dose ardor into getting your community to double mask if you want to put your skin in the game.  Not wearing masks properly and ubiquitous  killed and will kill more Americans than anything else. It's like when doctors refused to wash or disinfect hands before treating patients and between patients and shunned advocates . Arrogance, assholery. Look up Semmelweis. 

Systemic flaws in systems made by man...in some places, not others. 

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2 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

What is wrong is it only sensationalises a meaningless number in terms of the pandemic.  It is just as meaningless as me saying that in a normal year 3 times the number of people that died in 9-11 die everyday in the USA.  We then dive down the rabbit hole firing counter point statistics at each other and become blind to the truth.

Headline:  Larry King dies of Covid-19 related condition.  Fact:  Age 87, had recovered from Covid-19, in 2019 had a stroke that left him in a coma, had heart disease, terminal lung cancer, prostate cancer.  Statistic:  Covid-19 death?

9-11 fatalities were caused by terrorists exploiting systemic flaws in systems made by man.  Covid-19 is a virus that we think we can manage and eliminate.  Our historical record would show that although that is an admirable goal it isn't one that we have been very successful at achieving.

According to WHO 720 million people (possibly more) have had Covid-19 and fully recovered.  Isn't that something to celebrate?  Doesn't THAT statistic show that whatever we do the human race will survive?

Tell that to the people who have managed not to get smallpox or polio or measles. Eliminate is a pointless requirement.

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On 1/28/2021 at 1:10 PM, NeedAClew said:

Put your delay dose ardor into getting your community to double mask if you want to put your skin in the game.  Not wearing masks properly and ubiquitous  killed and will kill more Americans than anything else. It's like when doctors refused to wash or disinfect hands before treating patients and between patients and shunned advocates . Arrogance, assholery. Look up Semmelweis. 

Systemic flaws in systems made by man...in some places, not others. 

Actually my community has done amazingly well with this virus. We have a population of 220,000 and only 110 deaths, makes for 1 out of 2000, which is less than half the US rate. It is a university town with the vast majority of people masking up well, maintaining social distancing, etc. And it is well ahead on the vaccination curve, having given first doses to 26,000 of the 172,000 eligible to be vaccinated, or 15% of them, and these are primarily older and more vulnerable folk, so we should have this virus well under control in the next month or so. Now we have to see what the variants do to us, hence my sense of urgency to get everyone the first dose as soon as possible. If we did that for the next two months we would be over 50% partially vaccinated and might just be able to hold the variants at bay.

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A university town. Not Blacksburg. QED. Try the rest of the asshole country. I am in a liberal do-gooder county. But they are incompetent.

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I have concluded that small businesses and restaurants are no better than the tobacco industry. They are willing to kill people to stay in business, keep jobs. So long as the corpses aren't piled at the front door.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/michigan-restaurants-covid-restrictions/2021/01/30/e97b53ba-5b49-11eb-a976-bad6431e03e2_story.html

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I was going to take issue with your analogy because the patrons at these places are all willing participants who are taking what they feel is an acceptable risk. However, neither the patrons nor the restaurants are accounting for the "secondhand smoke" that can kill grandma within a month or create a long-hauler out of their millennial neighbors, so I can't argue.

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The problem is that a good number of Americans think that "freedom and liberty" means they can do whatever they want regardless of the consequences for themselves or others. They are also willing to be duped into believing that overturning a free and fair election result through violent uprising against the elected government is defending democracy. Anyone who can't see the the paradox in that is to stupid to breath regularly. Those who won't see the paradox are liars who should be treated like the common criminals they are.

And when a very sizeable minority of Americans think that punishing the instigator of the uprising would be bad for the country because his supporters would become even more violent and threaten the lives of the people supposedly handing out justice as a court of law, you start to realise just how hypocritical and self–centred those people are.

After refusing to follow simple public health measures like masks, social distancing (in its various forms), hygiene and stay–at–home orders in the early stages of the pandemic so that the measures demonstrably failed, they say "see, it doesn't work".

Their denial of reality is just a simple, lazy form of "I don't give a fuck about you or anyone else".

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Listen to The Lonesome Death of Hattie Carroll... seems like we haven't come that far since then

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imagine believing these statistics. I'm acquainted with many thousands of people, the only one that died "of covid" also had heart disease, kidney failure, Multiple Sclerosis and had been in and out of hospitals for his whole life. Really think he died of Covid? 

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22 minutes ago, Mark Set said:

imagine believing these statistics. I'm acquainted with many thousands of people, the only one that died "of covid" also had heart disease, kidney failure, Multiple Sclerosis and had been in and out of hospitals for his whole life. Really think he died of Covid? 

If he was run over by a car would he have died of kidney failure? MS?

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Dad was a lifelong smoker.  Had a variety of diseases that follow lifelong smokers.

Dad got Covid.

Died 2 weeks later.

Don't blame Covid, he was going to die anyway.

Perhaps we should look at it a different way.

Dad was a lifelong smoker.  Had a variety of diseases that follow lifelong smokers.

Dad was on the 90th floor of the WTC on 9/11/2001.

Don't blame the terrorists for killing dad, he was going to die anyway.

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I heard a statistic yesterday - that getting Covid (becoming symptomatic at any level) doubles your risk of death within 12 months following infection if you are 15 or older.

To me that puts what people are arguing about in this thread into proper perspective. Obviously as you get older, your average risk of death in the coming twelve months increases. But if you become Covid-infected, that risk doubles. You not only face a Russian-roulette respiratory risk. You run the risk of other organs being targeted by infection. High blood pressure and died after Covid infection? Diabetes maybe?  I'd say that Covid played an active role in the death.

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6 hours ago, Mark Set said:

imagine believing these statistics. I'm acquainted with many thousands of people, the only one that died "of covid" also had heart disease, kidney failure, Multiple Sclerosis and had been in and out of hospitals for his whole life. Really think he died of Covid? 

He's from Texas, what do you expect.

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40 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

He's from Texas, what do you expect.

Has been really busy owning the libs. 

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Captain Sir Tom Moore. Aged 100. Raised 33 million pounds for Covid relief.

Goes to the hospital on Sunday with it. Died last night. 

Well he was 100 and was going to die anyway?

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The whole "was going to die anyway" argument ignores that we "are all going to die anyway".

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Just talked to my powerboating neighbor down the road. Our relationship has been strained by Covid and Trump.  I was therefore encouraged to hear him say that he was looking to get vaccinated as soon as possible.  The worm has turned at least for some people! 

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3 hours ago, Israel Hands said:

Just talked to my powerboating neighbor down the road. Our relationship has been strained by Covid and Trump.  I was therefore encouraged to hear him say that he was looking to get vaccinated as soon as possible.  The worm has turned at least for some people! 

Probably knows someone who died of Covid. Or, if questioned, died of something else while infected with Covid. :rolleyes:

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4 hours ago, stinky said:

The whole "was going to die anyway" argument ignores that we "are all going to die anyway".

The whole "was going to die anyway" argument ignores .... just so much. eg: In Italy, the car accident victims who are treatable for a full recovery but were unable to be treated because the hospitals were full, so they were left to die. Was that a Covid death?

Its not just about the direct effect of the disease.

Oh and BTW smoking is a stupid analogy, I can't catch smoking. Maybe compare it to a disease with the same mortality and R value.

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16 hours ago, Mark Set said:

imagine believing these statistics. I'm acquainted with many thousands of people, the only one that died "of covid" also had heart disease, kidney failure, Multiple Sclerosis and had been in and out of hospitals for his whole life. Really think he died of Covid? 

Imagine not believing these statistics.:rolleyes:

 

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On 1/10/2021 at 5:21 AM, Zonker said:

You are aware that this is a new disease right? And has killed a lot of people. Yes, most are old, and some would have died anyway. 

But what sort of monster tries to minimize these excess deaths?

Monsters that won't understand that it's not OK to die before your time because "they would have died anyway"

Billy was a miner with a touch of black lung. He would have died anyway. (eventually)

Jenny was a 60 yo smoker with a touch of a cough, She would have died anyway.(eventually)

Peter was a 50 yo diabetic. He would have died anyway.(eventually)

Joanie was just old, 72 and swum daily. but  she would have died anyway.(eventually)

Stan is 28 with a congentital heart problem. He would have died anyway.(eventually)

If we took all the people that "would have died anyway (eventually)" out of the statistics, what a comfortable thing that would be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, I'm being sarcastic. 

Gosh there's some idiots on this forum.

 

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9 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

Monsters that won't understand that it's not OK to die before your time because "they would have died anyway"

Billy was a miner with a touch of black lung. He would have died anyway. (eventually)

@mikewof will be here shortly to tell you ...

mikeydoesntkill.jpg.f8fff76bb6afc952c0bb8421fd756a0f.jpg

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On 12/28/2020 at 6:02 AM, woodpecker said:

1 in every 700 Americans died of smoking this year.  Covid has a ways to go to catch it. Death toll from cigarettes is 480,000.

 

So how contagious is smoking?

After you research that one, get back to us on how you became such an ignorant fuckwit.

I can wait.

200.gif

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I'm noticing that a LOT of people who argue about statistics, they would have died soon anyway, died of something else...they are also ones who wanna do whatever they wanna do. Just a correlation, mind you. 

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13 hours ago, Flags said:

The whole "was going to die anyway" argument ignores .... just so much. eg: In Italy, the car accident victims who are treatable for a full recovery but were unable to be treated because the hospitals were full, so they were left to die. Was that a Covid death?

 

That's a good point.  I like this chart from Arizona:

image.thumb.png.bd98177d69d8c3678d1cf87c84d9bd92.png

During the height of the pandemic, the number of ICU beds used by non-Covid patients drops from 1000 to 500.

Halving your available ICU bedspace can't have a good outcome.

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9 hours ago, Teener said:

That's a good point.  I like this chart from Arizona:

image.thumb.png.bd98177d69d8c3678d1cf87c84d9bd92.png

During the height of the pandemic, the number of ICU beds used by non-Covid patients drops from 1000 to 500.

Halving your available ICU bedspace can't have a good outcome.

Is there a corresponding graph of actual ICU beds? Surely the numbers were increased somewhat with all the pop-up car-park wards, etc.

Still experiencing excess deaths, but maybe on the downturn...xmas was particularly brutal.

image.thumb.png.7b9ddf331c8aa5979771b94b055321f5.png

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On 2/2/2021 at 12:32 PM, Israel Hands said:

I heard a statistic yesterday - that getting Covid (becoming symptomatic at any level) doubles your risk of death within 12 months following infection if you are 15 or older.

 

I read that earlier on in the pandemic trying to sort out the risks for my own mental health. Digging deeper says that roughly if you are between 35 and 45 you have a 1 in 1000 chance of dying from some cause when you wake up every day. Of course that means in a group of 1000 people one will likely die of something and if they all had Covid then 2 in 1000 will likely die. These odds increase as you get older and decrease as you get younger but it is far from a certainty no matter how ominous the doubling of risk sounds.

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I still don't see what the big deal is with the US. From what people hear are saying the problem is all these ignorant, Trump supporting, mouth breathers that should just fuck off and die. All the sensible left are mask wearing, vaccine taking, isolating survives. Now nature has stepped in to grant your wish and you are moaning like little girls. Just accept the culling of the herd and move on.

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10 minutes ago, Gissie said:

I still don't see what the big deal is with the US. From what people hear are saying the problem is all these ignorant, Trump supporting, mouth breathers that should just fuck off and die. All the sensible left are mask wearing, vaccine taking, isolating survives. Now nature has stepped in to grant your wish and you are moaning like little girls. Just accept the culling of the herd and move on.

you tell 'em. leave it to Jizzy to inject some 'perspective' into the discussion.

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Just now, 3to1 said:

you tell 'em, love it to Jizzy to inject some 'perspective' into the discussion.

I guess there is always one outlier to the generalisation. You need to get a bit more purchase on reality kid.

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Just now, Gissie said:

I guess there is always one outlier to the generalisation. You need to get a bit more purchase on reality kid.

yea? how's that, Crusty?

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22 minutes ago, 3to1 said:

yea? how's that, Crusty?

Whatever 3,you are one of those that would go on ignore if I used that function. You just throw turds at those you disagree with. Never anything thoughtful, even shallow evades you. So see ya boyo.

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32 minutes ago, Gissie said:

Whatever 3,you are one of those that would go on ignore if I used that function. You just throw turds at those you disagree with. Never anything thoughtful, even shallow evades you. So see ya boyo.

it can be said this shit can be boiled down to 'good/evil', the big picture is actually really quite simple. 

there's all the 'thoughtfulness' that's required; your constant apologist shite need not apply. just sayin'

 

 

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7 minutes ago, 3to1 said:

it can be said this shit can be boiled down to me being a dick.

FIFY

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1 minute ago, Gissie said:

FIFY

nah, just telling it like it is.

so who's really being the dick..

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8 hours ago, Gissie said:

I still don't see what the big deal is with the US. From what people hear are saying the problem is all these ignorant, Trump supporting, mouth breathers that should just fuck off and die. All the sensible left are mask wearing, vaccine taking, isolating survives. Now nature has stepped in to grant your wish and you are moaning like little girls. Just accept the culling of the herd and move on.

As someone in the middle of this in the US, I mostly agree with you, hence being an old leftist I wear masks (but mostly to protect others on the chance that I am asymptomatically infected, I don't yet double mask with a N95 to protect myself), I mostly stay home except for my PT visits and grocery runs, and I was vaccinated two weeks ago so am mostly okay. BUT, the covidiots can still infect people that do not deserve to die, like my younger friend who has to have hospital treatment for cancer on a regular basis, and that sucks.

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On 2/3/2021 at 12:48 PM, Teener said:

That's a good point.  I like this chart from Arizona:

image.thumb.png.bd98177d69d8c3678d1cf87c84d9bd92.png

During the height of the pandemic, the number of ICU beds used by non-Covid patients drops from 1000 to 500.

Halving your available ICU bedspace can't have a good outcome.

Believe me, I am not a Covid denier but this illustrates the spin on the data. If you believed all the headlines you would imagine ICU's spilling over with dying Covid patients....or you could say that ICU bed use has gone up from 70% to 90% from the beginning of the pandemic to the current height of it. Even another way would be to day ICU bed use has gone up 20% over the pandemic. 

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Go to the website. https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Click on "Hospital bed usage"

Examine the pre-Covid data. Hover your mouse over the graphs, see that the ICU population hovers around 1000 non-Covid patients.

Then look at how the number of non-Covid patients shrinks to around 500 during the Covid peaks.

What do you think is  happening there?

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2 hours ago, Teener said:

Go to the website. https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Click on "Hospital bed usage"

Examine the pre-Covid data. Hover your mouse over the graphs, see that the ICU population hovers around 1000 non-Covid patients.

Then look at how the number of non-Covid patients shrinks to around 500 during the Covid peaks.

What do you think is  happening there?

I expect it is a blend of many factors. Certainly most data I have seen says other virus based illnesses have decreased during Covid due to better habits and mask wearing. Excess deaths seem to be fairly balanced due to lower death rates from other causes which one would think would be shadowed in ICU load. At least some credible sources indicate that due to compensation to hospitals for Covid patients, that some cases may be attributed to Covid where the patient may have been there without Covid. Finally, quite likely some people are avoiding the hospital to avoid the elevated risk of contracting the virus there. Presumably this will cause more acuity in their various ailments once they do get to the hospital and that will be a very bad outcome among many others from Covid. 

My knowledge is not comprehensive and has been gleaned from trying to read both sides and assuming most truths are somewhere in the middle. For sure I see headlines vastly missing any balance in the presentation of the risks and state of the health care world but probably they have always been that way. Getting clicks and eyeballs is the highest value among most media these days and vastly more important than balanced analysis. 

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Sure, better habits will reduce the spread of other diseases.  That doesn't account for the times after the peaks when the ICU beds start going to other patients.

ICU candidates avoid the hospital are more likely to die at home.  That's why the numbers in New York were so awful last year.

What's really going on here is Triage.  The hospitals don't have the resources to meet the standard of care during the peaks.

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Teener, surely hospitals would utilize the entire resources available to them if that was the case, wouldn't they? Why would ICU occupancy be 100% and why wouldn't they be increasing it or using other beds if that was the reason? 

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Yes they would, and they have to make hard decisions on how to allocate those limited resources.  Considering how stretched those resources are to do things like turn over beds and rooms 100% is unattainable and 90% is reasonable.

50% is not statistically insignificant.  Little explanations like people might stay at home and folks aren't getting sick as much can't explain that away.

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Okay Teener, I should clarify again that I don't doubt Covid exists or the terrible sickness it can be for some people. My point has been the inflammatory way our sources of information have been about the situation. I should also say that when I have discussed this with others close to me that I understand why it is happening and that if I were in charge I would perhaps be using it as a tool to control behaviors as well. 

This is not snark, but what exactly are you saying?

 

 

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On 2/3/2021 at 3:59 AM, Shortforbob said:
On 2/2/2021 at 11:17 AM, Mark Set said:

imagine believing these statistics. I'm acquainted with many thousands of people, the only one that died "of covid" also had heart disease, kidney failure, Multiple Sclerosis and had been in and out of hospitals for his whole life. Really think he died of Covid? 

Imagine not believing these statistics.

Imagine not "believing in" gravity... or electricity

You can't see them, do they really exist? Only a bunch of pointy-head scientists keep blabbering on about it. Oh and it makes my refrigerator work.......

- DSK

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19 hours ago, Ncik said:

oh really...

note the graph starts from 2017

image.thumb.png.2dab1b8bba8256b043e8bab223d537b5.pnghttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

Ncik, I resisted the temptation to go and find graphs that paint a different picture but ultimately, what is the point? If your aim is to prove that there are excess deaths from Covid then I concede the point. My belief structure never came close to saying that deaths from Covid did not happen and I am open to information such as this today and every day. My point was that we are surrounded by reports that create belief structures in people around us that far exceed the reality. We know what happened in Italy early in the outbreak and none of us would want to see that here but the spin on the data is crazy. 

In my province the number of cases spiked over Christmas undoubtedly due to shopping, family get togethers, and parties. The media was full of catastrophic graphs and charts showing the impending doom and predicting ICU's overrun with patients. Now some 3 weeks after that, when the numbers are down 60% and more we don't see any charts but instead are inundated with news of the dangers of the new strains. 

I am ready to admit that the truth might fulfill the prophesies the media has been filling our heads with and the scare tactics might be the only way for us to control ourselves. 

The best analysis I have seen was by a Military Crisis expert who said the weakness in our approach has been to put the Medical Officers of Health in charge. In his opinion their training and focus has led to a very narrow focus which views Covid Medical outcomes only and does not address any of the other effects of the programs and information being undertaken. 

 

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On 2/3/2021 at 3:17 AM, Mark Set said:

imagine believing these statistics. I'm acquainted with many thousands of people, the only one that died "of covid" also had heart disease, kidney failure, Multiple Sclerosis and had been in and out of hospitals for his whole life. Really think he died of Covid? 

Substitute "covid" with "being shot in the head, point blank, with a 30-06" and then make your point again, you oxygen thief.

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6 hours ago, danstanford said:

Ncik, I resisted the temptation to go and find graphs that paint a different picture but ultimately, what is the point? If your aim is to prove that there are excess deaths from Covid then I concede the point. My belief structure never came close to saying that deaths from Covid did not happen and I am open to information such as this today and every day. My point was that we are surrounded by reports that create belief structures in people around us that far exceed the reality. We know what happened in Italy early in the outbreak and none of us would want to see that here but the spin on the data is crazy. 

In my province the number of cases spiked over Christmas undoubtedly due to shopping, family get togethers, and parties. The media was full of catastrophic graphs and charts showing the impending doom and predicting ICU's overrun with patients. Now some 3 weeks after that, when the numbers are down 60% and more we don't see any charts but instead are inundated with news of the dangers of the new strains. 

I am ready to admit that the truth might fulfill the prophesies the media has been filling our heads with and the scare tactics might be the only way for us to control ourselves. 

The best analysis I have seen was by a Military Crisis expert who said the weakness in our approach has been to put the Medical Officers of Health in charge. In his opinion their training and focus has led to a very narrow focus which views Covid Medical outcomes only and does not address any of the other effects of the programs and information being undertaken. 

 

You believe the truth is scare tactics?

If society, as a whole, did/does not respond together, then the virus did/will have its way and excess deaths ensue. The experts warned of this and now the data proves it. All the rest is continued denialism.

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6 hours ago, danstanford said:

...find graphs that paint a different picture but ultimately, what is the point?

Please do, I am curious to see if there are excess death graphs that paint a different picture to the CDC.

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