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First Challenger gone  

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  1. 1. Which boat goes home first



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Interesting turn of events.  3 weeks ago INEOS would win this vote in a landslide.  Now it’s AMs turn.  Clearly Casper and the boys have issues but it’s a bit early to write them completely off.  They got their set up wrong and they can’t change anything yet because they are locked in until they can remeasure.  At least that’s what I am hoping for.  We shall see. 

WetHog  :ph34r:

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1 hour ago, WetHog said:

Interesting turn of events.  3 weeks ago INEOS would win this vote in a landslide.  Now it’s AMs turn.  Clearly Casper and the boys have issues but it’s a bit early to write them completely off.  They got their set up wrong and they can’t change anything yet because they are locked in until they can remeasure.  At least that’s what I am hoping for.  We shall see. 

WetHog  :ph34r:

I ask because I do not know: what can they change between races or between race days (after being measured)? Just the jib? The main? I know they can't change foils, although I'm not sure what the merit is in locking a boat into a specific setup for an entire weekend of racing. The wind and conditions can change substantially from one day to the next so why not let the teams change the boats to suit different conditions on different days?  Perhaps it's the notion that forcing teams to pick their setup and deal with it regardless of the conditions helps to identify the better sailors.

Personally, I like the idea of "bring your best boat to the line" and these restrictions seem to push teams to develop a single "good-at-most-things-great-at-nothing" package that they will end up using most of the time unless the weather for the upcoming races is both consistent and nearly guaranteed.

To be clear, since all teams have to operate under these rules, they are fair.  Also, AM's boom looks like shit.

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They allowed daily changes to the boats at AC34 and AC35. The method does not work in Auckland because the wind is so hard to predict.  You can change sails before the race but everything else must be declared days before the regatta.

I think that this requirement is better because it makes the designers focus on more versatile features which can benefit us all.

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16 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

They allowed daily changes to the boats at AC34 and AC35. The method does not work in Auckland because the wind is so hard to predict.  You can change sails before the race but everything else must be declared days before the regatta.

I think that this requirement is better because it makes the designers focus on more versatile features which can benefit us all.

I may be missing something but the fact that the weather is so hard to predict in Auckland would seem to counsel in favor of allowing teams to make changes on a daily basis rather than making them guess about the unpredictable days in advance. The prior two cycles seem to show that measuring each race day is at least possible. 

There are certainly trade-offs to locking a boat into a given configuration for a weekend of sailing. On the one hand, watching an ill-suited boat struggle around a course is painful and does allow chance to play more of a role in the outcome of a race. On the other, and as you noted, having these restrictions tests both the designers and the crew, so there is certainly merit to that.
 

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7 minutes ago, porthos said:

I may be missing something but the fact that the weather is so hard to predict in Auckland would seem to counsel in favor of allowing teams to make changes on a daily basis rather than making them guess about the unpredictable days in advance. The prior two cycles seem to show that measuring each race day is at least possible. 

There are certainly trade-offs to locking a boat into a given configuration for a weekend of sailing. On the one hand, watching an ill-suited boat struggle around a course is painful and does allow chance to play more of a role in the outcome of a race. On the other, and as you noted, having these restrictions tests both the designers and the crew, so there is certainly merit to that.

While we do have days when the wind is predictable and stable we also have days when the day starts at the low end of the spectrum and half way through a race it's a gale.

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I say AM, purely because there is no communication going on. They are way quieter than Ineos and LR.

And that is what did for Dean in San Fran. Add in the 2 guy's who stuffed him there are in charge of the other 2 boats.

That's my take.  

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Just now, Stingray~ said:

AM did draw the short stick in yesterday’s lottery but it could have been anyone. 

The actual sailors in this cup disagree with you...

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3 minutes ago, rh3000 said:

The actual sailors in this cup disagree with you...

All 3 boats spent varying amounts of time looking like dead ducks. It was a lottery. 
 

Because this Class can barely sail in displacement mode there were at times a 10 to 1 ratio speed difference between them. The 6.5 ‘rolling average for 30 secs at 2 minutes before the start’ (or whatever it is) rule is there purely for TV slot reasons. Something needs to change next time, it’s just not working. 

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Just now, Stingray~ said:

All 3 boats spent varying amounts of time looking like dead ducks. It was a lottery. 
 

Because this Class can barely sail in displacement mode there were at times a 10 to 1 ratio speed difference between them. The 6.5 ‘rolling average for 30 secs at 2 minutes before the start’ (or whatever it is) rule is there purely for TV slot reasons. Something needs to change next time, it’s just not working. 

No I meant assuming you can audibly hear, and understand the English language, and then can process it, the actual sailors literally disagreed with your notion of it being a lottery.

I'd also suggest you revisit the original videos of Bernasconi talking about the AC75 class during the announcements - he very carefully says displacement mode will be a thing that teams will have to factor into their designs...

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

All 3 boats spent varying amounts of time looking like dead ducks. It was a lottery. 

It's called sailing... seriously... 

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1 minute ago, rh3000 said:

displacement mode will be a thing that teams will have to factor into their designs...

... To get up onto the foils as quick as possible. 
 

The difference between foiling and not foiling is so extreme in these boats that if any boat spends minutes (!) not foiling the race becomes a farce, a complete joke. 

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2 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

... To get up onto the foils as quick as possible. 
 

The difference between foiling and not foiling is so extreme in these boats that if any boat spends minutes (!) not foiling the race becomes a farce, a complete joke. 

Only Kiwi fans are cool with these boats belly sliding around at 6 knts in displacement mode.  At least until their beloved ETNZ gets beat in a displacement race that was shortened to 4 laps in the Cup match to appease the TV broadcasters.  

WetHog  :ph34r:

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3 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

... To get up onto the foils as quick as possible. 
 

The difference between foiling and not foiling is so extreme in these boats that if any boat spends minutes (!) not foiling the race becomes a farce, a complete joke. 

Yet we saw more passes yesterday than any day with more wind. 

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Just now, WetHog said:

Only Kiwi fans are cool with these boats belly sliding around at 6 knts in displacement mode.  At least until their beloved ETNZ gets beat in a displacement race that was shortened to 4 laps in the Cup match to appease the TV broadcasters.  

WetHog  :ph34r:

Only the American team is talking about returning to displacement boats if they win, so you guys should love it. 

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2 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

... To get up onto the foils as quick as possible. 
 

The difference between foiling and not foiling is so extreme in these boats that if any boat spends minutes (!) not foiling the race becomes a farce, a complete joke. 

Nope... you didn't rewatch the videos... I can tell because a) you responded too quickly, and b) you still don't accept displacement mode as a thing

1331671555_ScreenShot2021-01-17at10_47_44AM.thumb.png.b55b06d16f5a8f187a8a16b61825ec2d.png
https://www.rnzys.org.nz/emirates-team-new-zealand-launch-their-first-ac75/

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Just now, WetHog said:

Only Kiwi fans are cool with these boats belly sliding around at 6 knts in displacement mode.  

This is inaccurate, Hoggie. I'm not cool with it, at all. It's about as compelling as ice boats in a thaw. 

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2 minutes ago, kenergy said:

Only the American team is talking about returning to displacement boats if they win, so you guys should love it. 

I will.  

WetHog  :ph34r:

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Just now, Sailbydate said:

This is inaccurate, Hoggie. I'm not cool with it, at all. It's about as compelling as ice boats in a thaw. 

You are in the minority I feel.   

WetHog  :ph34r:

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6 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

This is inaccurate, Hoggie. I'm not cool with it, at all. It's about as compelling as ice boats in a thaw. 

Agreed. I've been vocal about my disapproval of these boats.

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1 minute ago, jaysper said:

Agreed. I've been vocal about my disapproval of these boats.

A point of clarification, Jays. I think these AC75 foilers are generally spectacular. But without wind, not at all.

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14 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

A point of clarification, Jays. I think these AC75 foilers are generally spectacular. But without wind, not at all.

They might still beat those lead mines in displacement mode, given the chance?

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26 minutes ago, WetHog said:

Only Kiwi fans are cool with these boats belly sliding around at 6 knts in displacement mode.  At least until their beloved ETNZ gets beat in a displacement race that was shortened to 4 laps in the Cup match to appease the TV broadcasters.  

WetHog  :ph34r:

No, not true.
While I still don't like these boats, I think low wind races are part of sailing in general. They call for different tactics, which might be interesting or not, but that's the case for any regatta.

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3 minutes ago, Rennmaus said:

No, not true.
While I still don't like these boats, I think low wind races are part of sailing in general. They call for different tactics, which might be interesting or not, but that's the case for any regatta.

Sure, but in low wind races between displacement boats the SOG differences between boats in 4 knots versus 6 knots TWS are large, but nothing like the difference between FLYING FOILERS and FLOATING DUCKS :) 

Yes the 6.5 rule has been out there forever but it has now shown to be basically unworkable, it was a bad decision for this Class. 

 

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1 hour ago, Stingray~ said:

Far too early to predict. AM did draw the short stick in yesterday’s lottery but it could have been anyone. 

Yes, any sailor know that a race is partly a lottery, more in light shifty conditions. Even when we finish firts we know we made a good call but have to accept that chance sometimes helped us.That is for archimedian boats.

When on these heavy foiling boats +1  knot of pressure can bring 30 kts of differential it's a BIG lottery.

 

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Raise the limit and the boats will be designed for the higher limit. And already the problem comes when the wind dies after the start.

I thought yesterday was brilliant and exciting racing. 

But then my background is offshore, where the race starts whatever the weather. And if you want to win it you must be prepared to race.

Let's cut the rule that the C0 has to be on deck, allow multiple sails and open up the wind limits so there is no minimum. If that means they sail in a displacement mode with asymmetrics then good. Nice old fashioned sail changes at times, and foiling at others. Best of both worlds

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16 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

If that means they sail in a displacement mode with asymmetrics then good.

Disagree, this Class of boats are FOILERS. Displacement mode is a complete joke, your plane is either flying or sitting on the tarmac waiting in line. 

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41 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

Disagree, this Class of boats are FOILERS. Displacement mode is a complete joke, your plane is either flying or sitting on the tarmac waiting in line. 

And in sailing you have to sail ina range of conditions. That is the sport.Do F1 stop in rain because they have to drive slower. Sometimes very much so. No, they change tyres and get on with it. So open up the ability to change sails and make it better. 

Otherwise it will become a sterile design race for a narrow wind band and always a procession

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2 hours ago, WetHog said:

to appease the TV broadcasters.  

WetHog  :ph34r:

therein lies the basic problem, this is a yacht race not pub darts or go karts, the racing should be on a much much longer course and further out to sea, as for time limits, how does in daylight sound ?

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10 hours ago, The Main Man said:

Far too soon to make a call. If they have another bad day tomorrow though...

They are halfway thru the RR after today. Those old souls on AM need to wake up grandad! 

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2 hours ago, Kiwing said:

They might still beat those lead mines in displacement mode, given the chance?

The AC75s will have finished the race before the leadmines reached the first mark..

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6 hours ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Displacement mode is clearly an important piece of the puzzle regardless if we think it is right or wrong it's a serious part of this cycle

Not really, if both boats hit displacement and stay there it becomes purely a sit back and let the clock run out. There is no prospect of displacement racing. The entire focus of the Hull is to help get the boat up.

Zero effort would have been put into racing in displacement mode.

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Not Ineos, they don't have a big speed advantage but they do consistently make better calls. Might be something to do with the absolutely stacked afterguard that has more medals than some North Korean Generals. 

nkextramedals.thumb.jpg.b2b14c07fe10183bbadb800973a1bd1e.jpg

 

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On 1/18/2021 at 4:38 AM, Raptorsailor said:

Not Ineos, they don't have a big speed advantage but they do consistently make better calls. Might be something to do with the absolutely stacked afterguard that has more medals than some North Korean Generals. 

nkextramedals.thumb.jpg.b2b14c07fe10183bbadb800973a1bd1e.jpg

 

They are not medals, they're individual bulletproof plates to mitigate the inevitable firing squad. This is why KJU has started using AA weaponry for the job.

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On 1/16/2021 at 10:02 AM, Liquid Assett NZ said:

Dean vs Jimmy in the semi final

you wish.....

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If AM had been still in the RRs, UK would have had to lose every remaining race, and AM gone 2 out of 4 against LR for UK to be in bottom place for semi's.

If AM had beaten LR before trashing their boat, UK would already be guaranteed top spot straight through to final.

Quite a turn around from expectations a few weeks ago

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22 minutes ago, Liquid Assett NZ said:

To meet Ineos in the Prada cup final 

 

Looks likely this topic was posted before the capsize

Your right. 

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On a forum where people argue that boat lying in its side in the water hasn't capsized and claim a boat with a perfect record in the RRs is slowest, can we agree that 5 people got this poll incontrovertibly wrong. Will the 5 who voted GB care to step forward?

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On 1/16/2021 at 9:58 PM, Sailbydate said:

I think these AC75 foilers are generally spectacular. But without wind, not at all.

Sailby - these boats in currrent iteration are still faster than the "leadmines" up wind for similar angles...... I am too old and busted up to even think about trying to get a ride on one as self loading freight...... Cool to watch,however as my floating home,  I will stick with my Outremer 45......

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25 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

On a forum where people argue that boat lying in its side in the water hasn't capsized and claim a boat with a perfect record in the RRs is slowest, can we agree that 5 people got this poll incontrovertibly wrong. Will the 5 who voted GB care to step forward?

Me. It's still not too late... 8)

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24 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

On a forum where people argue that boat lying in its side in the water hasn't capsized and claim a boat with a perfect record in the RRs is slowest, can we agree that 5 people got this poll incontrovertibly wrong. Will the 5 who voted GB care to step forward? 

I honestly thought Prada was further along and discounted the "Ben factor" - Mea Culpa... mea maxima culpa.

 

I still believe that Team GBR will get further into the finals than DeSavory;s attempt, I don't think Rita has what it takes..... nor has the time left to make the changes that are required....

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5 hours ago, Piet56 said:

I honestly thought Prada was further along and discounted the "Ben factor" - Mea Culpa... mea maxima culpa.

 

I still believe that Team GBR will get further into the finals than DeSavory;s attempt, I don't think Rita has what it takes..... nor has the time left to make the changes that are required....

I thought that before Christmas, I then thought it again after the RR race 1, and then again on race 2 and again on race 3 and again on race 4 and then again on race 5. I have overused the word again again. 

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This is not over or hardly begone.  The last stage is knock out so anyone of the 3 can win.  I hope the last stage is similar to the match conditions so the challenger has the most chance of taking the cup and TNZ has a real test on it's hands.  If the challenger is a strong wind boat and the cup is raced in light conditions then TNZ might win easily which is not what they or us want?  There is no satisfaction in beating the weakest opponent?  The best victory is over the best challenger ?!?

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I think AM has the fastest boat and the repair delay is giving them time to dissect every aspect of their sailing techniques and strategy (what else to the sailors have to do).  I think AM was a little over confident going into the Prada Cup and lost by making several bad tactical decisions.  I think they will be hard to beat in the remainder of the Prada Cup.

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4 hours ago, JALhazmat said:

It is now ;-) 

Not wishing it on them, but AC boats have exited stage left when not in a race... 

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3 hours ago, The_Alchemist said:

I think AM has the fastest boat and the repair delay is giving them time to dissect every aspect of their sailing techniques and strategy (what else to the sailors have to do).  I think AM was a little over confident going into the Prada Cup and lost by making several bad tactical decisions.  I think they will be hard to beat in the remainder of the Prada Cup.

I'm still not writing them off.

I think they have the fastest boat. They just need to stop making stupid fucking tactical choices.

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18 hours ago, jaysper said:

I'm still not writing them off.

I think they have the fastest boat. They just need to stop making stupid fucking tactical choices.

I want to get behind my home team.......but for me to believe they can do it, I need to see a significant change to the after guard of American Magic.

One change is to process and decision making , but I would also like to see some new talent at the back.  

I believe the boat could be competitive

I think that the afterguard is too old school and would (and possibly still can) benefit from foiling talent like Nathan O or Tom Sling.

Mostly I think the capsize has removed a critical 2 weeks of development and practice.

I fear my home team might be first home. But I hope not.   If they can up their game sufficiently to beat Prada then I think they could go the whole way.....but I just do not think that Terry and Dean are anything like the same top level talent as Ben and Burling. 

 

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43 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

I want to get behind my home team.......but for me to believe they can do it, I need to see a significant change to the after guard of American Magic.

One change is to process and decision making , but I would also like to see some new talent at the back.  

I believe the boat could be competitive

I think that the afterguard is too old school and would (and possibly still can) benefit from foiling talent like Nathan O or Tom Sling.

Mostly I think the capsize has removed a critical 2 weeks of development and practice.

I fear my home team might be first home. But I hope not.   If they can up their game sufficiently to beat Prada then I think they could go the whole way.....but I just do not think that Terry and Dean are anything like the same top level talent as Ben and Burling. 

 

Agree they are old and old school. If they were going to offshore the helm they should have gone with your examples of Nathan or Tom. 

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

I want to get behind my home team.......but for me to believe they can do it, I need to see a significant change to the after guard of American Magic.

One change is to process and decision making , but I would also like to see some new talent at the back.  

I believe the boat could be competitive

I think that the afterguard is too old school and would (and possibly still can) benefit from foiling talent like Nathan O or Tom Sling.

Mostly I think the capsize has removed a critical 2 weeks of development and practice.

I fear my home team might be first home. But I hope not.   If they can up their game sufficiently to beat Prada then I think they could go the whole way.....but I just do not think that Terry and Dean are anything like the same top level talent as Ben and Burling. 

 

I don't think anyone thinks they are at the same level and yes I agree that something needs to change in the decision making process.

It is pretty clear to me that AM's boat speed was not a factor in any of their losses. In fact I think their boat speed is the best out of the three challengers.

I was disappointed in the manner in which Dean was stepped down from the helmsman role at ETNZ but pleased that he was no longer the helmsman.

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9 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

I want to get behind my home team.......but for me to believe they can do it, I need to see a significant change to the after guard of American Magic.

One change is to process and decision making , but I would also like to see some new talent at the back.  

I believe the boat could be competitive

I think that the afterguard is too old school and would (and possibly still can) benefit from foiling talent like Nathan O or Tom Sling.

Mostly I think the capsize has removed a critical 2 weeks of development and practice.

I fear my home team might be first home. But I hope not.   If they can up their game sufficiently to beat Prada then I think they could go the whole way.....but I just do not think that Terry and Dean are anything like the same top level talent as Ben and Burling. 

 

The rules make impossible to bring in new talent, non US citizens must be resident in the US to qualify as crew.  They are stuck with the people they have but if they took TH off the grinding job so he could do a proper job as tactician that would improve their tactics and would make the grinders work a little harder.

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3 minutes ago, F15 AUS said:

Tom Slingsby is a dual citizen I believe. I thought I read somewhere that his mother is from the Excited States. 

Way too late as good as he is he needs 6 months on the team and behind the wheel to even get upto play. Dont write off AM 

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The corollary to this topic is who the neutrals and semi-neutrals want to win this weekend.

From the British pov, we have beaten LR 5 times, but they were quite close in the last one. We have only beaten AM twice but more easily.

However if any boat had more unfulfilled potential I think it was AM. And if AM did beat LR then it would mean that they were starting to tap into that.

So whilst I think LR is faster, I think I would also prefer to see LR because I am more confident we can then beat them in the final

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6 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

The corollary to this topic is who the neutrals and semi-neutrals want to win this weekend.

From the British pov, we have beaten LR 5 times, but they were quite close in the last one. We have only beaten AM twice but more easily.

However if any boat had more unfulfilled potential I think it was AM. And if AM did beat LR then it would mean that they were starting to tap into that.

So whilst I think LR is faster, I think I would also prefer to see LR because I am more confident we can then beat them in the final

But consider that the last race was very close and it was not in the preferred wind range for LR. If I were Ineos I would rather pick AM.

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1 hour ago, strider470 said:

But consider that the last race was very close and it was not in the preferred wind range for LR. If I were Ineos I would rather pick AM.

I did and I am nervous whatever. Though with LR's new foils I suspect that may have been their preferred wind range. I doubt they would have put them on for a very light day.

 

 

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1 hour ago, strider470 said:

But consider that the last race was very close and it was not in the preferred wind range for LR. If I were Ineos I would rather pick AM.

LR did not look that great in their last match up.  Poor tacks and overall slower VMG than INEOS.

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2 minutes ago, enigmatically2 said:

I did and I am nervous whatever. Though with LR's new foils I suspect that may have been their preferred wind range. I doubt they would have put them on for a very light day. 

 

 

I'm not 100% sure, but I read that in the last race LR didn't use the new (smaller but less stable) foils that they were trying the previuos days.

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2 minutes ago, sailman said:

LR did not look that great in their last match up.  Poor tacks and overall slower VMG than INEOS.

Yes, and they were so close nonetheless! (But I don't know how much the cunningham issue affected Ineos)

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I think I would prefer to meet AM in the semis. INEOS haven't raced LR in marginal foiling conditions so and with just a few days racing for the finals, the weather could swing it. 

However, out of LR and AM I find it hard to call. I think the LR has the better all round boat, but clearly AM has a better top end. In terms of the crew I think LR is racing closer to their potential. Whereas AM had big improvement in the decision making to make. Whereas LR is seems to be more a split second issue every now and then. 

LR have now had more time to improve, but out of all team their performance trajectory has been much more linear and measured... s part of me still wouldn't b surprised to see AM make a leap. 

My head says AM should go home first after their crash. But my heart secretly wants Dean Barker to prove all his critics wrong and come out confident and decisive. 

 

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Really feel for Dean Barker ..... returning Son, received by a home Nation itching to bury him, then Read & Outteridge post mortem goes great lengths to highlight his Goody overcall, ignores that Hutchinson (next day) said the left was correct as the right was softer .. and then despite emphasising the lack of runner ease being such a significant capsize factor were silent as to responsibility there.  He may not be the best (perhaps why he's joined other nations syndicates these past two Cups) but it was the right call (imo) and the skippering and call management was set up to fail ... and fail it did.

So would like to see AM back so we still have a horse race first and foremost but moreover so Barker has a chance to silence the critics, but ... "gremlins in the system" after such a hasty rebuild may prove more of a threat in the semis than the competitors themselves.  As well as the hull and all the mechatronics Patriot also has to pretty swiftly fix their now near fatal decision making set up: let's not forget that crash was an unforced error.  After the monumental effort by so many, including the Cup hosts, just to get their car back on the racetrack there will even more nervousness onboard Patriot ahead of every mission critical call ... by who ever makes it.  

So, i'd be very surprised if they make it thru to the PC finals but I hope LR are the first boat to go home .....as there could be no sweeter way for Britannia to win the Americas Cup for Great Britain, for the very first time in 170 years, than to have squared up to, luffed up and duffed up, both the significant holders of the Cup over that time.

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The wind forecast looks very dire for AM if the last light day is any indication. Unless the winds are higher than that day AM seems to be a displacement boat in a sailing race. Of course, they could put on older foils that are larger considering how much faster they were than Prada in the heavier breezes. If I had them I would put them on I think. 

 

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1 hour ago, Crackling Rosie said:

Really feel for Dean Barker ..... returning Son, received by a home Nation itching to bury him, then Read & Outteridge post mortem goes great lengths to highlight his Goody overcall, ignores that Hutchinson (next day) said the left was correct as the right was softer .. and then despite emphasising the lack of runner ease being such a significant capsize factor were silent as to responsibility there.  He may not be the best (perhaps why he's joined other nations syndicates these past two Cups) but it was the right call (imo) and the skippering and call management was set up to fail ... and fail it did.

So would like to see AM back so we still have a horse race first and foremost but moreover so Barker has a chance to silence the critics, but ... "gremlins in the system" after such a hasty rebuild may prove more of a threat in the semis than the competitors themselves.  As well as the hull and all the mechatronics Patriot also has to pretty swiftly fix their now near fatal decision making set up: let's not forget that crash was an unforced error.  After the monumental effort by so many, including the Cup hosts, just to get their car back on the racetrack there will even more nervousness onboard Patriot ahead of every mission critical call ... by who ever makes it.  

So, i'd be very surprised if they make it thru to the PC finals but I hope LR are the first boat to go home .....as there could be no sweeter way for Britannia to win the Americas Cup for Great Britain, for the very first time in 170 years, than to have squared up to, luffed up and duffed up, both the significant holders of the Cup over that time.

Agreed, he's an excellent helm. In 2013 he just got out-sped, don't think he choked a bit, but it's got to feel like that's following him around.

Theres an American Football team called the Bears. They are somewhat famous for being able to build great teams but somehow have never had a good quarterback, much less a great one liek the teams that make the playoffs more often than not.  Their attempts to get it right have included blockbuster trades, huge top draft picks, and trying dozens of QBs while other teams have used like, 2, in the same era.  What's funny is they've really tried all teh strategies, and their one consistent trait has been terrible luck in finding a variety of ways to get it wrong. Dean Barker is the Chicago Bear's. 

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On 1/24/2021 at 5:15 PM, EYESAILOR said:

I want to get behind my home team.......but for me to believe they can do it, I need to see a significant change to the after guard of American Magic.

One change is to process and decision making , but I would also like to see some new talent at the back.  

I believe the boat could be competitive

I think that the afterguard is too old school and would (and possibly still can) benefit from foiling talent like Nathan O or Tom Sling.

Mostly I think the capsize has removed a critical 2 weeks of development and practice.

I fear my home team might be first home. But I hope not.   If they can up their game sufficiently to beat Prada then I think they could go the whole way.....but I just do not think that Terry and Dean are anything like the same top level talent as Ben and Burling. 

 

 

Perhaps fair to say the Afterguard were, regretfully, set up to fail,  ... and fail they did, as that capsize was for the most part an unforced error.

Hutchinson is quoted as saying "they don't need to hear my voice, I just listen to the guys and if there's a strong opinion one way or another I would certainly jump in and try and overrule it".  I truly struggle with that approach, just a cocktail of doubt and division.  In the 10 seconds leading up to that fateful manoeuvre we hear their mainsheet trimmer seeking to get their skipper to overrule their helmsman.  I'm imagining the entire crew was (for those critical few seconds there) wondering if the overrule would come, anxious they might not even hear it with all those elevated voices.  With all that uncertainty swirling round the boat as they readied for one of the hardest manoeuvres it is little wonder the crew may not have performed their tasks to the absolute best of their ability.  Set up to fail.

How to solve?   Their physical repair time is likely to gobble up the majority of the time available (11 days odd), so chances are they'll be debugging mechatronics 24/7 throughout the semis.  By contrast there is plenty of time for get a coffee and come up with a better plan for processing tactics and managing calls. 

There's no great wiggle room here (such as telling Nathan to give someone his media mic and climb aboard) so it's down to making the best of what you've got ...

Maybe contrarian and I've never stepped foot on one but I'm going to suggest that the winning formula with these foiling race boats relies less on having the best helmsman on the planet who can squeeze every shred of vmg out of every second, or even on having the fastest boat, but more on the helm being able to call the shots and process the tactical advice with efficacy - in the moment - whilst coordinating the crew such that all the high tech controls are perfectly in sync. We’re not talking about arms pulling ropes any more of course, it's about rams and buttons being moved in harmony in a split second, just as a conductor curates the right sound from a team of musicians all operating different bits of kit. And that more than ever requires an autocratic approach. What we’ve seen from AM's syndicate is the polar opposite: an attempt to employ a democracy.

The obvious and easiest change is to get Hutchinson out of the pit so he can perform one role well, not three roles badly. I'd expect their rebuild can facilitate that change.  Almost seems innovative in this context but if this Cup has affirmed one thing already it's that having one person handle the tactical inputs works best. Hutchinson is that man. They need to bite the bullet, depart from democracy and let Barker truly live or die by the sword of his own decision making.

 It's their best bet I believe.

 

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The most prevalent factor in who go home first will be the weather. AM is better in heavier winds while Prada does best in light. Weather forecast for racing is light winds. 

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On 1/26/2021 at 1:42 PM, Crackling Rosie said:

 

Perhaps fair to say the Afterguard were, regretfully, set up to fail,  ... and fail they did, as that capsize was for the most part an unforced error.

Hutchinson is quoted as saying "they don't need to hear my voice, I just listen to the guys and if there's a strong opinion one way or another I would certainly jump in and try and overrule it".  I truly struggle with that approach, just a cocktail of doubt and division.  In the 10 seconds leading up to that fateful manoeuvre we hear their mainsheet trimmer seeking to get their skipper to overrule their helmsman.  I'm imagining the entire crew was (for those critical few seconds there) wondering if the overrule would come, anxious they might not even hear it with all those elevated voices.  With all that uncertainty swirling round the boat as they readied for one of the hardest manoeuvres it is little wonder the crew may not have performed their tasks to the absolute best of their ability.  Set up to fail.

How to solve?   Their physical repair time is likely to gobble up the majority of the time available (11 days odd), so chances are they'll be debugging mechatronics 24/7 throughout the semis.  By contrast there is plenty of time for get a coffee and come up with a better plan for processing tactics and managing calls. 

There's no great wiggle room here (such as telling Nathan to give someone his media mic and climb aboard) so it's down to making the best of what you've got ...

Maybe contrarian and I've never stepped foot on one but I'm going to suggest that the winning formula with these foiling race boats relies less on having the best helmsman on the planet who can squeeze every shred of vmg out of every second, or even on having the fastest boat, but more on the helm being able to call the shots and process the tactical advice with efficacy - in the moment - whilst coordinating the crew such that all the high tech controls are perfectly in sync. We’re not talking about arms pulling ropes any more of course, it's about rams and buttons being moved in harmony in a split second, just as a conductor curates the right sound from a team of musicians all operating different bits of kit. And that more than ever requires an autocratic approach. What we’ve seen from AM's syndicate is the polar opposite: an attempt to employ a democracy.

The obvious and easiest change is to get Hutchinson out of the pit so he can perform one role well, not three roles badly. I'd expect their rebuild can facilitate that change.  Almost seems innovative in this context but if this Cup has affirmed one thing already it's that having one person handle the tactical inputs works best. Hutchinson is that man. They need to bite the bullet, depart from democracy and let Barker truly live or die by the sword of his own decision making.

 It's their best bet I believe.

 

I think Terry generally grew up in slower moving boats where there was time to build consensus.

I also think his most important job as team leader is to select the best helm and best tactician that he can find on the planet and make sure that it is a team that works together . The leader should probably not be helm or tactician unless absolutely unbelievable talent.

The helm and tactician need to rehearse making calls as much as rehearsing any other function on the boats.

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No, that was a good sled dog. A leader would keep the lack with him. Huskies are not ideal pets because they are good sled dogs. Just like Dean is not a world class AC72 driver because he is a great monohull match racer.  Even Jimmy falls into this category though he is close to the boundary. 
 

In order to turn a husky into a good pet, you have to start breaking the running predisposition before he is weaned. Dean missed that boat for his age, and we will never know how Amwow would have done if Nathan or Rashley or Bora or Rast or Slingers or any other top ten mothie would’ve done on the helm. 

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