TheDragon

Defer the second dose for three months

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Unbelievable to me that the US has little sense of urgency to get vaccination done before these various more rapidly spreading variants overcome our hospitals just like is happening in the UK. They at least have the intelligence to defer the second dose for three months to get more people the first dose. Biden should issue an executive order that only first doses be given for now, with the second dose delayed till after his first 100 days. That way we vaccinate almost twice as many as the current approach. Then we would be well on our way to stopping this pandemic, and at a minimum we would prevent perhaps 100,000 deaths because if we can vaccinate everyone over 65 in the next month that would stop any of them from dying of covid. Plenty of evidence that the first dose gives most of your protection and prevents almost all instances of severe disease. We now know that having survived covid, patients get at least 6 months immunity, and no reason to believe it would be less with the vaccine, even just one dose. The failure to get vaccine into arms is a national disgrace. There are vast resources to get this done, from retired medical folk who can do the injections to pharmacies well experienced at doing it, what the fuck is wrong with this great country. For the first time ever I agree with Florida governor deSantis to get the vaccine to all over 65 first, and our Illinois Governor Pritzker has authorized the same so our county did that this week and all my 65+ friends are scheduled for next week or got it last week like me. Let's get on with it. We could send people to the moon in the 1960s but we can't do mass vaccination efficiently and sensibly in 2021?????????????????

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It is unbelievable and alarming that you would promote the deferment of the second dose.  It is totally against the protocols developed during testing and in complete conflict with the manufacturers recommendations.

To defer the 2nd dose runs the real risk of putting people at risk and more importantly induces an artificial form of biological selection pressure that could in itself induce more infectious and dangerous variants.  Those variants could develop resistance to the vaccines!

It is shear lunacy to further circumvent time proven protocols for a vaccine developed in record time that has already undergo process short cuts.

If you have any sense you will read the research from Israel that addresses this very topic and highlights the very real risks in the approach that you recommend.   They find that without the second dose done in the recommended time there is a significant increase in an immunity response not developing.

You should feel greatful for having been able to jostle your way to the head of the queue and leave it at that.

 

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Fuck off Kate, go back to the ooze of ineptitude you crept out of in Sydney or NZ or where ever you hide out. You are a miserable troll with no clue what you are talking about. You have no skin in this game unlike me, my family, and my friends, both young and old, not to mention the economy of my county, state, and country, not to mention our overwhelming desire to return to a relatively normal life, which you are lucky to enjoy because you live on an island with half-way competent people in charge, unlike till recently this benighted land.

And don't try to indict my getting the vaccine last week. Check out our local Champaign County website - https://www.c-uphd.org/covid-vaccinations.html - where you will see that over 65 with co-morbidities could get vaccinated last week as I and many hundreds of other did. And although not updated yet, they will start vaccinating all 65+ next week and my friends in that group are all already registered for it. You are a miserable piece of shit.

 

 

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Great news tonight, CDC and Fauci finally saying you can wait 6 weeks for second dose. But that's not good enough. It needs to be three months and a nation-wide mandate, no exceptions.

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What you are proposing is shear lunacy.  The first dose of the Pzifer vaccine only reaches 50% effectiveness and the second dose as an optimal period for application.  Defermemt only reduces the vaccine effectiveness which defeats the purpose of vaccinating.

You have to wonder that if the UK do indeed have a more infectious and higher mortality variant that it is a product of their inconsistency in NPI's.  

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5 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Great news tonight, CDC and Fauci finally saying you can wait 6 weeks for second dose. But that's not good enough. It needs to be three months and a nation-wide mandate, no exceptions.

Based on what science?  Certainly not the manufacturers or based on the data from the trials.

Lunacy.

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For fucks sake you stupid iditot. We've known that I am right for over a month now - https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-how-well-moderna-vaccine-prevents-covid-19-infections-2020-12

What part of these two graphs do you not understand? Are you really this dumb? 

The first dose give essentially complete immunity after 7-10 days and there is absolutely no reason to believe that declines in less than three months given that people who have had covid are immune through at least six months.

Jesus, why do I waste my time on your stupidity. ENOUGH, let's get on with it.

 

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Texas is receiving about 300k doses per week. There are 9 million over the age of 65. The math sucks on that.  Today Houston announced receiving additional doses, 1600 available at the new stadium site, booked up in 5 minutes. We are never getting out of the weeds at this rate. On a positive note (no humor intended) I went through some small towns in the middle of Texas and all the old white folks are now wearing masks.

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7 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

The first dose give essentially complete immunity after 7-10 days and there is absolutely no reason to believe that declines in less than three months given that people who have had covid are immune through at least six months.

That is outright misinformation.  Trials have shown that one dose only reaches 50% effectiveness.  It is not until after the second dose that effectiveness reaches over 90%.  Similar research has been done in Israel and their Government will stick to the recommended protocol.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

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11 minutes ago, d'ranger said:

Texas is receiving about 300k doses per week. There are 9 million over the age of 65. The math sucks on that.  Today Houston announced receiving additional doses, 1600 available at the new stadium site, booked up in 5 minutes. We are never getting out of the weeds at this rate. On a positive note (no humor intended) I went through some small towns in the middle of Texas and all the old white folks are now wearing masks.

That is nuts. The Feds claim to have distributed over 40m doses and only 20m have been given. What the fuck is happening with the other 20m. For heaven's sake lets get those 20m doses into first time arms, leave the second dose for three months.

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Fauci on Rachel on MSNBC right now, but she does not raise this approach and he does not mention it. Very unfortunate.

USA has 49.2 million people over 65. If we used all 40m available and the 10-20m that will be available in the next month to get all of them the first dose by the end of February we could bring the death rate way down, save our hospitals, and turn this pandemic around. It is nuts we are not doing that. 

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Dragon you are wrong on at least one point I care about. The first shot is less effective in over 65s than it is in younger people. Old farts need the second dose. Old farts are what we are vaccinating now along with first responders etc. 

If we all fucking wore masks all the time when outside our homes we could do a lot of good. But I guess getting a shot is easier huh? How old are you TheDragon? If you are over 65 get your second shot.

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8 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

That is nuts. The Feds claim to have distributed over 40m doses and only 20m have been given. What the fuck is happening with the other 20m. For heaven's sake lets get those 20m doses into first time arms, leave the second dose for three months.

It may be that half are being held for the 2nd shot. In my area it's the lack of vaccine as several times hundreds of people have been sent home for lack of it.  Even if the 2nd is not delayed there should be a shipment schedule with a small % for delays. Sitting on half? In logistics and distribution that is laughable. On the other hand there has been no national coordination to this point with people telling me they can't schedule because they are out and have no idea when more will arrive and how much.    The doctors I know say 50% 2 weeks after first shot.  Having 90% of the folks at 50% is better than 45% of the folks at 95%.  It is getting better and if the J&J is approved soon we could see millions of doses quickly and it's the 1 shot deal.

edit: Get your 2nd shot? Where do you live because unless you are lucky or well connected it's damn hard to get the 1st one.  See Post #8 for the math in Texas.

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6 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Dragon you are wrong on at least one point I care about. The first shot is less effective in over 65s than it is in younger people. Old farts need the second dose. Old farts are what we are vaccinating now along with first responders etc. 

If we all fucking wore masks all the time when outside our homes we could do a lot of good. But I guess getting a shot is easier huh? How old are you TheDragon? If you are over 65 get your second shot.

NAC, as shown above, I got my first shot and I've read and learned enough about it to know I will be good for many months, so I plan to wait three months so someone else can get their first dose in 25 days time instead of me (I got the Moderna vaccine). I have been very careful to avoid this virus as I have co-morbidities and am 65. I seldom go out, I wear a mask whenever I do, I don't go to restaurants or bars, I avoid anyone except my wife indoors, and she is older than me and just as vulnerable. So she got hers on Jan19 as well. It's winter here and cold and pretty miserable, so my major activity is walks with my wife, and until late December when he died at age 14, our dog, preferably in nearby woods. End of this month I will be in good shape and very happy, unlike miserable basement-dwelling trolls like Kate who can only spend all their time online stalking me and others who support rational approaches to this pandemic. I want all my friends to be largely immune too, and definitely very unlikely to get severely ill or die (death rate for over 65 in my county is around 1/100, odds I don't like when it is my life that is at stake, and my wife and I are likely at considerably higher risk). For the past four months I've been trying to recover from rotator cuff surgery in early October, so even if I wanted to do more than walk in the woods, I can't because my PT has not gone well and I now have a frozen shoulder. No ice-boating, skating, skiing, biking, longboarding, kiting, sailing, etc for me for a while.

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I am torn here. I also believe we should move as quickly as possible.

But I think the current flaws in the roll-out programmes are in the logistics first, not only on the production side. 

My impression is that once you are committed to a rollout plan, you must not change it, you create interdependencies (e.g. scheduling appointments etc) that are hard to manage.

The graphs above are not good, in my opinion. They show a line for a combination of first and second vaccination.

As it is a very straight line, it is tempting to infer that it would be the same if it was only one shot and the second can easily be done after 90 days.

But as far as I know, no such trial data exists. You don't know how this curve would bend, with just one vaccination.

Further, from 'real life', this:

Quote

'Israel’s coronavirus tsar has warned that a single dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may be providing less protection than originally hoped, as the country reported a record 10,000 new Covid infections on Monday.

In remarks reported by Army Radio, Nachman Ash said a single dose appeared “less effective than we had thought”, and also lower than Pfizer had suggested.'

Unquote

Also, mind you that a large cohort of people with some, but not full protection form a larger petry dish for variants that are resilient to the vaccine.

I would not go down that lane, tempting as it looks. It is, sadly, a Titanic situation.

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Okay, but Matagi, there is really good evidence now that having had covid you are immune for at least six months. Why only six months, because that's how long we've been able to observe enough people. So a single vaccine shot should do just fine for six months. Yes, a single dose has not been tested for six months, because they had to get the Stage 3 trials done in a hurry. The companies simply made an educated guess as to the interval from first to second dose, witness that the two companies came up with different numbers. And if we could have been in the room when it was decided how long to wait for the second dose, I would be willing to be we would have heard them saying "the shorter the interval between doses the better because then we will get the Stage 3 trial data earlier". There were no tests of one week, or two weeks, or three weeks for Moderna, or four weeks for pjizer, etc. As it was the trials took just long enough to stop Trump from getting a second term, thank goodness!!!

Many other vaccines have an interval between doses a lot longer than one month. The simply is no rational reason in the face of this monumental crisis and national emergency not to delay the second dose. I am beyond believe that this is not being done, but we are slowly moving that way. CDC and Fauci saying today we CAN delay to six weeks, but not yet MANDATING it. With a couple more weeks I'm willing to bet they will change their tune one more time and at least go to six weeks for both vaccines, which will be better than nothing. I consider it highly unethical not to get as many over 65 their first dose as fast as possible, and with 49m people in this category, we need to move a hell of a lot faster than we are doing now. Already several million doses have been wasted on second shots, please no more for three months, first 100 days of Biden's term. We need boldness here, not timidity and nervousness and claims that it has not been tested therefore we cannot do it. There is no time to test it, you have to use the evidence available to judge it and go for it, NOW. And to their massive credit that's what the UK is doing and we are not. We are going to regret not doing it, and around 100,000 extra deaths and needless extension of the restrictions we are all living under in the USA.

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Well, as harsh as it sounds, I disagree. 

The consequences of this are unpredictable. There was a plausible idea I posted some days ago, that variants may have first emerged in immune-compromised people, whose immune system is on constant alert.

I would not rule out that a similar result can rise from a large number of 'unfinished' inocculations.

It also undermines trust in the vaccination process and its adherence to it: people will not show up for shot no. 2 in droves, esp. with declining death numbers during summer, I guarantuee you that. So you would waste shots maybe even worse than now, as many treatments would remain incomplete.

It also, in a broader sense, undermines science worse than Tr**p ever did. If we trusted the scientific process with all its stages back then, why should we still trust it in the future, if we throw it out of the window because we are so desperate? (We are, no doubt).

I am not 'big on peer reviews', as was suggested on the other side of my ignore button.

But I like good data. I work with data and automated decision-making everyday. I am not a statistician, but I have had my fair chunk of it in my Computer Sciences studies, modelling, decision trees, data mining, it is a large part of my life.

I believe I can most times tell good data from bad data or not enough data. A decision must weigh its consequences and I believe here, we don't have enough data or knowledge about the longterm consequences.

It is urgent, no doubt. But the root of the problem lies with governments that have failed to treat this like they would treat a war, with all its consequences for focus, combined effort, organizational capacities and the ability to ramp up production and distribution.

We have had a whole year to get our act together. We chose not to, basically all 'western' societies (lack of better definition, sorry).

That's the problem we need to fix now for a longterm solution that rids us from this thing. Not something that only gets us from one petry dish to the next.

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Please see the models I posted on the order of vaccination thread.

1. Mathematically it makes zero sense to hold back half the vaccine for 2nd dose. There might be a week when you hold back 20%.   But most of the time no treason for inventory.

2. A roll out based on doing 3 months of dose 1 and then 2 months of dose 2 with no new dose 1s is also ineffective 


3.  The whole problem with the vaccine supply chain is that it is run by a military general rather than a brilliant supply chain manager from Amazon using latest computer modeling , synchronized data and a supply chain that drops direct to RDCs and vaccine centers all linked on a common data base .  That system would be telling vaccine centers precisely how many candidates to book each month and no vaccine would be sitting on the shelf anywhere in the system

4. The basic problem is that there is not enough vaccine available,  The US made big bets on Moderna and AZ .   Moderna worked out great.  AZ results have been opaque and it has not been approved except in UK.   Pfizer is highly effective but we don’t have as much as we need. 
If JNJ vaccine is approved, that will be a huge positive.  It is logistically easier and will add more manufacturing 
 

 

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Matagi, I can see where you are coming from and cannot disprove what you say as we have not completed the experiment. I get it that we want to stick with the science, I worked in this broad field of molecular biology for 40 years. But there simply was not time to do all the variations on vaccine dosing regimes we would like, so we have to make judgements about how to proceed in the face of this emergency situation. Oh well, at least CDC and Fauci are starting to move in my direction. And we will eventually have our answer with the UK attempting this approach, but of course by the time we have "the data" and "peer-reviewed studies" it will be far too late, by at least months and most likely years.

Note to Kate - I prefer peer-reviewed studies, I've published over 100 of them, but we don't have that kind of luxury here, time is of the essence.

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34 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Matagi, I can see where you are coming from and cannot disprove what you say as we have not completed the experiment. I get it that we want to stick with the science, I worked in this broad field of molecular biology for 40 years. But there simply was not time to do all the variations on vaccine dosing regimes we would like, so we have to make judgements about how to proceed in the face of this emergency situation. Oh well, at least CDC and Fauci are starting to move in my direction. And we will eventually have our answer with the UK attempting this approach, but of course by the time we have "the data" and "peer-reviewed studies" it will be far too late, by at least months and most likely years.

Note to Kate - I prefer peer-reviewed studies, I've published over 100 of them, but we don't have that kind of luxury here, time is of the essence.

TG, The problem with your scenario of 3 months of Dose 1 is that after 3 months the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine production would have to have doubled in order to start giving the second dose or else cease providing first doses.

Mathematically, if Pfizer and moderna give us a reasonable forecast of their production schedule, we could model the most effective dosing allotment.  We could enter the production, and enter the band of time difference between 1st and 2nd dose that we think we can tolerate and let the algorithm spit out the best allocation of doses. 

The 2nd dose within a certain time period generates a level of antibodies that is more enduring and at a higher level than a single dose , so getting inside the time period is important.   The scientists dont know what that time period is but we need to estimate it because 2 doses that last 2 years (just for example) is a more efficient use of doses than a recurring dose every 6 months. Its a balancing act.

However, I entirely agree with you that finding the right dosage strategy is important.

JNJ current trial is based on a single dose so production will directly match vaccinated people.

 

 

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13 hours ago, TheDragon said:

NAC, as shown above, I got my first shot and I've read and learned enough about it to know I will be good for many months, so I plan to wait three months so someone else can get their first dose in 25 days time instead of me (I got the Moderna vaccine). I have been very careful to avoid this virus as I have co-morbidities and am 65. I seldom go out, I wear a mask whenever I do, I don't go to restaurants or bars, I avoid anyone except my wife indoors, and she is older than me and just as vulnerable. So she got hers on Jan19 as well. It's winter here and cold and pretty miserable, so my major activity is walks with my wife, and until late December when he died at age 14, our dog, preferably in nearby woods. End of this month I will be in good shape and very happy, unlike miserable basement-dwelling trolls like Kate who can only spend all their time online stalking me and others who support rational approaches to this pandemic. I want all my friends to be largely immune too, and definitely very unlikely to get severely ill or die (death rate for over 65 in my county is around 1/100, odds I don't like when it is my life that is at stake, and my wife and I are likely at considerably higher risk). For the past four months I've been trying to recover from rotator cuff surgery in early October, so even if I wanted to do more than walk in the woods, I can't because my PT has not gone well and I now have a frozen shoulder. No ice-boating, skating, skiing, biking, longboarding, kiting, sailing, etc for me for a while.

Our lives are similar. No dog though. Sorry for the loss of your dog friend. 

Issue where I am is that if ever I get a 1st shot, they schedule the second then. No real way to decline that second shot and let someone else have that slot or shot. If I no show, no way to reschedule shot 2.

Annoying but not a real life changer. We see no one, go nowhere indoors or where people gather. I would like to be able to take public transport or Uber and see my doctors and dentist. That's why I want my vaccines asap. 

The constraints here are software, logistics and shot site thruput. No football stadiums or huge parking lots. My Florida friend got hers in a drivethru after making 100 or so phone calls to neighboring counties. Here we are restricted to own local health dept which lacks the skills to run things. Sadly Starbucks and Amazon aren't here. FEMA maybe eventually. The doses are in freezers somewhere because of the constraints in administering.

 

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16 hours ago, TheDragon said:

NAC, as shown above, I got my first shot and I've read and learned enough about it to know I will be good for many months, so I plan to wait three months so someone else can get their first dose in 25 days time instead of me (I got the Moderna vaccine). I have been very careful to avoid this virus as I have co-morbidities and am 65. I seldom go out, I wear a mask whenever I do, I don't go to restaurants or bars, I avoid anyone except my wife indoors, and she is older than me and just as vulnerable. So she got hers on Jan19 as well. It's winter here and cold and pretty miserable, so my major activity is walks with my wife, and until late December when he died at age 14, our dog, preferably in nearby woods. End of this month I will be in good shape and very happy, unlike miserable basement-dwelling trolls like Kate who can only spend all their time online stalking me and others who support rational approaches to this pandemic. I want all my friends to be largely immune too, and definitely very unlikely to get severely ill or die (death rate for over 65 in my county is around 1/100, odds I don't like when it is my life that is at stake, and my wife and I are likely at considerably higher risk). For the past four months I've been trying to recover from rotator cuff surgery in early October, so even if I wanted to do more than walk in the woods, I can't because my PT has not gone well and I now have a frozen shoulder. No ice-boating, skating, skiing, biking, longboarding, kiting, sailing, etc for me for a while.

TD......please be careful before abandoning your second dose. We really know nothing about how well the Moderna vaccine lasts without the booster. Moderna have not been doing any trials on the effectiveness of the vaccine without the booster. There must be a reason that both Moderna and Pfizer using very similar technology and based on a lot of mRNA research decided on the 1+1 protocol.   We know that anitbodies and a level of immunity kicks in 10 days after the first shot but we do not know if it dwindles away. We dont know that if you wait 3 months, that you wont in fact need to start again with a new sequence of 1+1 . We do know that the need for vaccines will be just as acute in 3 months as it is now so taking 3 shots instead of 2 will not be good.

But you seem determined to do your bit for the community. If you do cancel, let the clinic know it lots of time so that they can reallocate the shot.   Taake care of yourself, you seem like a good human being. 

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5 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

TG, The problem with your scenario of 3 months of Dose 1 is that after 3 months the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine production would have to have doubled in order to start giving the second dose or else cease providing first doses.

Mathematically, if Pfizer and moderna give us a reasonable forecast of their production schedule, we could model the most effective dosing allotment.  We could enter the production, and enter the band of time difference between 1st and 2nd dose that we think we can tolerate and let the algorithm spit out the best allocation of doses. 

The 2nd dose within a certain time period generates a level of antibodies that is more enduring and at a higher level than a single dose , so getting inside the time period is important.   The scientists dont know what that time period is but we need to estimate it because 2 doses that last 2 years (just for example) is a more efficient use of doses than a recurring dose every 6 months. Its a balancing act.

However, I entirely agree with you that finding the right dosage strategy is important.

JNJ current trial is based on a single dose so production will directly match vaccinated people.

 

 

My answer to this is that in the next three months we are very likely to have two additional vaccines become available at volume, both the Oxford/AstraZeneca (which should be approved already and is in the UK and many other places - yes, I know the history of what went wrong with dosing, but clearly it works and is safe) and JNJ. So in three months we will have plenty of vaccine for first, or even single doses, from these while Moderna and Pfizer continue to offer second doses to those who are three months out from their first shots. And beyond obvious, it does not matter which one of these two mRNA vaccines you got first, it will be fine to have the other second.

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3 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

Issue where I am is that if ever I get a 1st shot, they schedule the second then. No real way to decline that second shot and let someone else have that slot or shot. If I no show, no way to reschedule shot 2.

 

That's a shame. When i got my jab, the director of our PHD was there, Julie Pryde (she is now a prominent person in our community, among other things for answering a public question every day in the local newspaper), so I had a chat with her about this topic. She said she was not ready to defer second doses of her own initiative, but she was fine with me deferring my second dose for as long as I want, and that I would encounter no problems scheduling it when I am ready.

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2 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

That's a shame. When i got my jab, the director of our PHD was there, Julie Pryde (she is now a prominent person in our community, among other things for answering a public question every day in the local newspaper), so I had a chat with her about this topic. She said she was not ready to defer second doses of her own initiative, but she was fine with me deferring my second dose for as long as I want, and that I would encounter no problems scheduling it when I am ready.

Well they are more competent than most, I'm guessing.  Here the local hospital, county health dept, county government, and state are all finger-pointing at each other as to why there is no online booking system. A circular firing squad but with the citizens in the circle.

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46 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

TD......please be careful before abandoning your second dose. We really know nothing about how well the Moderna vaccine lasts without the booster. Moderna have not been doing any trials on the effectiveness of the vaccine without the booster. There must be a reason that both Moderna and Pfizer using very similar technology and based on a lot of mRNA research decided on the 1+1 protocol.   We know that anitbodies and a level of immunity kicks in 10 days after the first shot but we do not know if it dwindles away. We dont know that if you wait 3 months, that you wont in fact need to start again with a new sequence of 1+1 . We do know that the need for vaccines will be just as acute in 3 months as it is now so taking 3 shots instead of 2 will not be good.

But you seem determined to do your bit for the community. If you do cancel, let the clinic know it lots of time so that they can reallocate the shot.   Taake care of yourself, you seem like a good human being. 

Well, I may compromise and go with six weeks versus the current 3/4 or the UK approach of 12 weeks. Two new developments today are a set of prominent docs pushing the UK government to go with 6 weeks, and France deciding also to delay second dose for now. I'll decide when the time comes, we may have more information by then.

Every passing day I feel better about this, thinking of all the spike protein my cells are producing. And in another week I should be golden.

 

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Every passing day I feel better about this, thinking of all the spike protein my cells are producing. And in another week I should be golden.

You have no idea that that is actually occurring.  Nor to a level that offers any degree of practical immunity.  Hence the need to have the 2nd dose in the recommended time.  For some recipients immunity is not gained until AFTER the 2nd dose - that is what the science and testing has shown.  

If one dose is only 50% effective on AVERAGE then you have no assurance that you have any immunity at all.  I'd stay in queue and get that 2nd dose that is likely to take the effectiveness to 95%.  To not do so does nothing for anyone let alone yourself.  You still need to isolate UNTIL you have had the second dose.  If you can do that for another 6 months as you infer then why did you bother having the first dose?

Your sacrifice to what you perceive to be a community benefit by deferring the 2nd shot is misguided.  What's more your approach creates additional potential and risk to a variant developing that is resistant to the current vaccines.

Vaccine resistance is rare but DOES occur.  The hypothesis to why it occurs rarely (unlike antibiotic drug resistance) is that when an immune system is properly triggered by a vaccine to combat a virus the system develops a multi-faceted defence mechanism - antibodies, T and B cells etc.  If the immune system is only partially triggered by the first dose then that raises the possibility of vaccine resistance occurring.  

A vaccine does not create an impenetrable force shield around the human body.  What it does is trigger an immune response and memory.  So when or if infection occurs the immune system activates and starts the fight against the virus.  Vaccines work by ensuring that the viral load doesn't get to the point where disease occurs.  The virus STILL replicates in the body.  In a single individual infection zillions of virus particles are produced and replicated including mutations.  A vaccine triggered immune response keeps that viral replication/load low.

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

  For some recipients immunity is not gained until AFTER the 2nd dose - that is what the science and testing has shown.  

I

I  agree it is safest to get the 2nd dose but I am not aware of any testing that has proven this.  I am not aware the moderna has tested a single dose. Pray share.

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On 1/22/2021 at 5:47 PM, TheDragon said:

Great news tonight, CDC and Fauci finally saying you can wait 6 weeks for second dose. But that's not good enough. It needs to be three months and a nation-wide mandate, no exceptions.

Oh great, Fauci?? He lied to the Government and the American People when he said a year ago, "You do not need to wear Masks."
One has to wonder how rapidly the virus spread because of his incompetency. In any other country he would be in prison of shot dead.

He is a liar and he has Little Man Syndrome.

On 1/22/2021 at 6:20 PM, TheDragon said:

Fauci on Rachel on MSNBC right now, but she does not raise this approach and he does not mention it. Very unfortunate.

USA has 49.2 million people over 65. If we used all 40m available and the 10-20m that will be available in the next month to get all of them the first dose by the end of February we could bring the death rate way down, save our hospitals, and turn this pandemic around. It is nuts we are not doing that. 

Oh Great, you expect a real question from Turkey Neck Maddow??

Oh I'm sorry I should have said White Privilege Maddow.

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3 hours ago, Meat Wad said:

Oh great, Fauci?? He lied to the Government and the American People when he said a year ago, "You do not need to wear Masks."
One has to wonder how rapidly the virus spread because of his incompetency. In any other country he would be in prison of shot dead.

He is a liar and he has Little Man Syndrome.

Oh Great, you expect a real question from Turkey Neck Maddow??

Oh I'm sorry I should have said White Privilege Maddow.

Somebody tied you jockstrap a bit?

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8 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

 

 

A vaccine does not create an impenetrable force shield around the human body.  What it does is trigger an immune response and memory.  So when or if infection occurs the immune system activates and starts the fight against the virus.  Vaccines work by ensuring that the viral load doesn't get to the point where disease occurs.  The virus STILL replicates in the body.  In a single individual infection zillions of virus particles are produced and replicated including mutations.  A vaccine triggered immune response keeps that viral replication/load low.

Why don't you explain the adaptive immune system to me some more, Kate? I simply have no idea how it works. PLEASE

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On 1/23/2021 at 12:47 PM, TheDragon said:

Great news tonight, CDC and Fauci finally saying you can wait 6 weeks for second dose. But that's not good enough. It needs to be three months and a nation-wide mandate, no exceptions.

 

 

On 1/23/2021 at 11:29 AM, TheDragon said:

Unbelievable to me that the US has little sense of urgency to get vaccination done before these various more rapidly spreading variants overcome our hospitals just like is happening in the UK. They at least have the intelligence to defer the second dose for three months to get more people the first dose. Biden should issue an executive order that only first doses be given for now, with the second dose delayed till after his first 100 days. That way we vaccinate almost twice as many as the current approach. Then we would be well on our way to stopping this pandemic, and at a minimum we would prevent perhaps 100,000 deaths because if we can vaccinate everyone over 65 in the next month that would stop any of them from dying of covid. Plenty of evidence that the first dose gives most of your protection and prevents almost all instances of severe disease. We now know that having survived covid, patients get at least 6 months immunity, and no reason to believe it would be less with the vaccine, even just one dose. The failure to get vaccine into arms is a national disgrace. There are vast resources to get this done, from retired medical folk who can do the injections to pharmacies well experienced at doing it, what the fuck is wrong with this great country. For the first time ever I agree with Florida governor deSantis to get the vaccine to all over 65 first, and our Illinois Governor Pritzker has authorized the same so our county did that this week and all my 65+ friends are scheduled for next week or got it last week like me. Let's get on with it. We could send people to the moon in the 1960s but we can't do mass vaccination efficiently and sensibly in 2021?????????????????

Seriously? You think it's OK to delay because the UK are doing it? 

What you are suggesting is possibly wasting what you've got.

 

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21 minutes ago, Shortforbob said:

 

 

Seriously? You think it's OK to delay because the UK are doing it? 

What you are suggesting is possibly wasting what you've got.

 

Huh? Pretty soon most countries will be doing it at least to some extent and the US will be wondering "how did we fuck this up yet again"

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6 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Huh? Pretty soon most countries will be doing it at least to some extent and the US will be wondering "how did we fuck this up yet again"

What makes you think that?

Not everyone has put all their eggs in the Pfizer basket.

The UK has stuffed up their response to Covid possibly even worse than the USA and that idiot Johnson is STILL in charge. and you'd do what they do?

Time for panicking is long gone. Now you steady the ship and take what comes stoically knowing that you have someone that will take advice in charge. 

I understand bugger all about vaccines, but it would make me wonder if not taking all the dose when you are supposed to take it might not simply produce more vaccine resistant strains of Covid.

Like when people overuse and misuse antibiotics. half kill something. it comes back stronger.

It is one of the reasons Australia has invested so heavily in the AstraZeneca vaccine, which can be made onshore.

 

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5 hours ago, Shortforbob said:

I understand bugger all about vaccines, but it would make me wonder if not taking all the dose when you are supposed to take it might not simply produce more vaccine resistant strains of Covid.

 

Well, SFB, I'm afraid that says it all. Are you aware that the 21 and 28 day intervals that Pfizer and Moderna set for their second shots are, at best, simply best guesses, with no actual data to support them? Why not 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 weeks? They simply never tested those intervals. I maintain that these two intervals were most likely chosen simply to allow these companies to get their phase3 trials done quickly. What do you think is the basis for the difference of a week between Pfizer and Moderna? Science? Not likely. Think profit.

Please go back to my post 7 and notice that from about 10 days after the first dose there are essentially no new infections for those getting the vaccine versus the placebo. Yes, they gave second doses at 21 and 28 days so we don't know how long that immunity from the first dose would have lasted, but there is no reason to believe it would disappear in 12 weeks, that's simply not how immunity works. AND, we have abundant evidence that people who have had Covid have immunity out to at least six months, so it is illogical to think that the immunity conferred by the first dose would disappear in three months, it simply does not make sense to think that. Anyway, we will soon have data from the UK on this front, so will find out who is right.

I'm at day 5, so 5 more days and I will be golden! Got to love a vaccine that is 95 efficacious and even the occasional infection is almost never severe, let alone fatal. LOVE IT!

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Watching Fauci on CBS Face the Nation right now, waiting for the delay of second dose issue. No such luck, a missed opportunity.

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Israel reports a 60% reduction in transmission among those over 60 years old. The vast majority of those have only had their first dose.

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Reasonably balanced article on this topic in NYT, including the possibility of splitting doses. I'm still not clear on the evidence for viruses evading vaccines on the timescales we are talking about. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/health/coronavirus-polio-vaccination.html?searchResultPosition=1

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Vaccine is as yet not the constraint at least where we are. It's delivering vaccine from wherever it's stashed to local places that are authorized to give shots and scheduling shot slots. Salesforce is doing shot scheduling system for CA. Guess Larry's covid system  isn't useful for that. 

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On 1/25/2021 at 7:29 AM, TheDragon said:

Israel reports a 60% reduction in transmission among those over 60 years old. The vast majority of those have only had their first dose.

There are differing opinions on that figure.  A reduction in transmission doesn't correlate to lasting immunity.

The "report" you refer to is from a very small as yet unpublished non-peer reviewed paper with a sample size of 102 - a bit more detail - 

The small study of 102 medical workers found that after the second dose of the vaccine, 100 of the subjects had significantly higher levels of antibodies than even people who recovered from severe COVID-19 infections,....

Other reports of effectiveness show a wide variance.  What this variance does prove is that it is not prudent to defer the second dose which increases the effectiveness to 95%. 

Preliminary data from people in Israel suggest that the vaccine was about 50% effective in preventing infection 14 days after receiving the first of two doses.

But some Israeli HMOs announced very different efficacy rates. One HMO reported that the vaccine was 33% effective 14 days after administration, while another reported an efficacy rate of 60%.

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It is possible that I missed this before on our local PHD website, however checking today it says the following, so they might be moving in the direction of delaying the second dose, which I discussed with the director when I got my first shot, and had a letter to this effect published in the local newspaper. But I doubt that's what caused this sentence, they surely came up with it on their own.

Please note that the second dose of Moderna Vaccine should be at least 28 days after your first dose and the second dose of Pfizer Vaccine should be at least 21 days after the first, but there is no maximum interval between both doses.

https://www.c-uphd.org/covid-vaccinations.html

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I lost my mother in law this morning after a week long fight against the virus. Every single person in her memory care facility was infected a week ago.  She was diagnosed the last day of the Trump administration.  She would have been inoculated with the vaccine last Friday.  She became a great grandmother last night for four hours.  She would have loved that.

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3 hours ago, TheDragon said:

It is possible that I missed this before on our local PHD website, however checking today it says the following, so they might be moving in the direction of delaying the second dose, which I discussed with the director when I got my first shot, and had a letter to this effect published in the local newspaper. But I doubt that's what caused this sentence, they surely came up with it on their own.

Please note that the second dose of Moderna Vaccine should be at least 28 days after your first dose and the second dose of Pfizer Vaccine should be at least 21 days after the first, but there is no maximum interval between both doses.

https://www.c-uphd.org/covid-vaccinations.html

You totally miss the point.  Even you have posted links stating that the MAXIMUM effectiveness of the vaccine is not reached until AFTER the second dose.

The effectiveness of the first shot varies greatly between individuals and there is no way to ascertain what that level is in an individual.  You are more likely to still be vulnerable and potentially infectious after the first dose than after the second.

If you are vulnerable and have had the first shot you still can't go anywhere.

Pushing for deferment of the second shot is likely to send the wrong message.

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1 hour ago, Loose Cannon said:

I lost my mother in law this morning after a week long fight against the virus. Every single person in her memory care facility was infected a week ago.  She was diagnosed the last day of the Trump administration.  She would have been inoculated with the vaccine last Friday.  She became a great grandmother last night for four hours.  She would have loved that.

I am so sorry for your loss, this is heartbreaking.

 

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On 1/23/2021 at 10:29 AM, TheDragon said:

Unbelievable to me that the US has little sense of urgency to get vaccination done before these various more rapidly spreading variants overcome our hospitals just like is happening in the UK. They at least have the intelligence to defer the second dose for three months to get more people the first dose. Biden should issue an executive order that only first doses be given for now, with the second dose delayed till after his first 100 days. That way we vaccinate almost twice as many as the current approach. Then we would be well on our way to stopping this pandemic, and at a minimum we would prevent perhaps 100,000 deaths because if we can vaccinate everyone over 65 in the next month that would stop any of them from dying of covid. Plenty of evidence that the first dose gives most of your protection and prevents almost all instances of severe disease. We now know that having survived covid, patients get at least 6 months immunity, and no reason to believe it would be less with the vaccine, even just one dose. The failure to get vaccine into arms is a national disgrace. There are vast resources to get this done, from retired medical folk who can do the injections to pharmacies well experienced at doing it, what the fuck is wrong with this great country. For the first time ever I agree with Florida governor deSantis to get the vaccine to all over 65 first, and our Illinois Governor Pritzker has authorized the same so our county did that this week and all my 65+ friends are scheduled for next week or got it last week like me. Let's get on with it. We could send people to the moon in the 1960s but we can't do mass vaccination efficiently and sensibly in 2021?????????????????

Punctuation, won't read it if you deliberately do that to make me work hard.  Otherwise you don't know the basics of the language?

79f2960016e1e411d07e02f6caf3011b.jpg

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Huh? Lots of periods and commas in that paragraph. Sorry if you are offended that I don't break it up into countless sentences and phrases with full line spaces between them. I'm not Jack, go read his posts if you don't like mine!

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11 hours ago, rastro said:

Punctuation, won't read it if you deliberately do that to make me work hard.  Otherwise you don't know the basics of the language?

79f2960016e1e411d07e02f6caf3011b.jpg

If you use it as an introductory element to an independent clause, as I think you intend to do here, a comma should follow after 'otherwise'.

 

 

 

I double dare you.

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17 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You totally miss the point.  Even you have posted links stating that the MAXIMUM effectiveness of the vaccine is not reached until AFTER the second dose.

The effectiveness of the first shot varies greatly between individuals and there is no way to ascertain what that level is in an individual.  You are more likely to still be vulnerable and potentially infectious after the first dose than after the second.

If you are vulnerable and have had the first shot you still can't go anywhere.

Pushing for deferment of the second shot is likely to send the wrong message.

The first shot is a primer and infers little immunity 

the second shot challenges your immune system and builds immunity 

persons  with only one shot have questionable resistance and can’t be considered as  immunized 

Hence a second jab , as soon as possible , Is needed to protect vulnerable people 

the object is to rapidly protect vulnerable people , not a vaccine count beauty contest 

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45 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

The first shot is a primer and infers little immunity 

the second shot challenges your immune system and builds immunity 

persons  with only one shot have questionable resistance and can’t be considered as  immunized 

Hence a second jab , as soon as possible , Is needed to protect vulnerable people 

the object is to rapidly protect vulnerable people , not a vaccine count beauty contest 

Either cite a link if you are plagiarising, so we can see where you are getting your opinions from. If not, list your qualifications in epidemiology, thanks

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2 hours ago, Weyalan said:

Either cite a link if you are plagiarising, so we can see where you are getting your opinions from. If not, list your qualifications in epidemiology, thanks

I can read 

can you ?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/amp/

 

 

18B3C992-D772-4535-96A4-E5D3879B01C2.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

Yes I can read. But only if you provide a cite for your claims. The article you linked is interesting. It's a newspaper article... so its scientific veracity is not exactly cast iron, is it?

Also, it says lots of things about the effectiveness or otherwise of the vaccine, but most categorically does not say 

<quote> The first shot is a primer and infers little immunity 

the second shot challenges your immune system and builds immunity 

persons  with only one shot have questionable resistance and can’t be considered as  immunized 

Hence a second jab , as soon as possible , Is needed to protect vulnerable people 

the object is to rapidly protect vulnerable people , not a vaccine count beauty contest <unquote>

I actually concur with your personal opinion that a second shot increases resistance. Your personal opinion also broadly reflects the opinion of the newspaper article. Nevertheless,  with so much misinformation flying about posting opinion dressed as fact is dangerous.

 

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So Slug, what part of this graph from Pfizer's results of their phase 3 trial as analyzed by the FDA do you not understand?

Notice that from 10 days out from the first does the blue line is essentially flat. Thus the first dose, after 10 days, provides almost complete immunity. Of course a booster shot a month late is good, and I will definitely get a booster shot. But the one month out timing is just a guess by these companies, in my opinion almost certainly greatly influenced by the need to get their phase 3 trials completed in rapid time. Imagine if they had chosen six months for the booster, we would still be waiting for results.

At least we could compromise and say six weeks for the Pfizer and Moderna boosters shots, that alone would save many lives by getting more people their first show now, instead of spending doses on second shots. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 6.08.00 AM.png

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Just go see Biden to tell him the news and stfu here.

 

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"The EU's medicines regulator on Thursday said it advised medics inject a second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine three weeks after the first, amid debate over how much time to leave between the two jabs."

Further:

"Britain, the first country to authorise the Pfizer-BioNTech jab, has extended the gap between doses to up to 12 weeks as part of a strategy to quickly vaccinate more people with a first dose.

But that decision has been controversial, with the British Medical Association calling for a maximum of six weeks between the jabs.

The World Health Organization has meanwhile recommended a four-week gap between doses -- to be extended to a maximum of six weeks in exceptional circumstances.

The EMA noted that during clinical trials, the vaccine was tested using gaps between doses of up to six weeks.

"There are currently no clinical data on the efficacy of the vaccine when administered beyond intervals used in the clinical trial," it said.

Of those who took part in trials, "93.1 percent of these participants received the second dose 19 to 23 days after the first dose," it said."

Link

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What the 119 day  graph does not show and what matters even more than antibody level after 1 shot is how long whatever "immunity" is conferred by 1 shot LASTS.  If it's a couple-few months and shot 2 comes late, does one end up with an immunity gap?  Lower final immunity than if 2nd shot not overly delayed? What is overly delayed in that case? Will 90+ plus immunity for elderly require 3 shots not 2, wasting a shot? What about other age groups? What do things look like at 180 days? Etc. Yaddda.

 

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5 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

What the 119 day  graph does not show and what matters even more than antibody level after 1 shot is how long whatever "immunity" is conferred by 1 shot LASTS.  If it's a couple-few months and shot 2 comes late, does one end up with an immunity gap?  Lower final immunity than if 2nd shot not overly delayed? What is overly delayed in that case? Will 90+ plus immunity for elderly require 3 shots not 2, wasting a shot? What about other age groups? What do things look like at 180 days? Etc. Yaddda.

Exactly.  Dare I say it.... Meanwhile official serological survey data is showing that Sweden has surpassed and is rapidly heading towards 50% level of Covid-19 antibodies in the community. 

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On 1/22/2021 at 6:52 PM, Kate short for Bob said:

What you are proposing is shear lunacy.  The first dose of the Pzifer vaccine only reaches 50% effectiveness and the second dose as an optimal period for application.  Defermemt only reduces the vaccine effectiveness which defeats the purpose of vaccinating.

You have to wonder that if the UK do indeed have a more infectious and higher mortality variant that it is a product of their inconsistency in NPI's.  

Came for the comedy and staying for the expert medical advice. Isn't the flu vaccine about 50 percent effective?

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16 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Exactly.  Dare I say it.... Meanwhile official serological survey data is showing that Sweden has surpassed and is rapidly heading towards 50% level of Covid-19 antibodies in the community. 

But we still don't know much about reinfection, reinfection by a variant, ability to transmit if reinfected, etc. 

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4 minutes ago, pusslicker said:

Came for the comedy and staying for the expert medical advice. Isn't the flu vaccine about 50 percent effective?

Yeah overall. But there are usually several strains a year, they have to get the mix right, people rarely know what strain they got, all those are mixed together in effectiveness ratings. 

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2 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

But we still don't know much about reinfection, reinfection by a variant, ability to transmit if reinfected, etc. 

We do actually.  The is negligible evidence of re-infection.  Of the millions of confirmed Covid-19 cases there have been only 47 CONFIRMED cases of re-infection (0.00005%).  This website is doing a good job of tracking it.  https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/  Sure 9,000 SUSPECTED cases but that is 0.009%!

With regard to a new variant having the potential to reinfect that is a factor of how effective the vaccines really are.  Naturally induced immunity is likely to be like the original SARS and MERS viruses where research has found immunity has lasted for 17 years!  If reinfection to naturally acquired immunity was going to be a problem then we would have seen many more examples of it.  Particularly when it is now apparent that Covid-19 is highly seasonal.

We are more likely to see an entirely new Coronavirus than a variant that has strong reinfection attributes.  

Getting back to the subject of this Topic - deferring the second dose.  The possibility of new variants with vaccine resistance evolving in my opinion it is better to do as recommended and get individual immunity fully effective as quickly as possible.  You need both doses to do that.  The UK Lockdown and Vaccination policies in my opinion are actually increasing the risks.  If you have a large proportion of the population now naturally immune and you are rapidly vaccinating people then closing down your borders because you are scared that somewhere in the world is a new hypothetical variant that is more harmful defies the principles of basic virology.   

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10 hours ago, TheDragon said:

So Slug, what part of this graph from Pfizer's results of their phase 3 trial as analyzed by the FDA do you not understand?

Notice that from 10 days out from the first does the blue line is essentially flat. Thus the first dose, after 10 days, provides almost complete immunity. Of course a booster shot a month late is good, and I will definitely get a booster shot. But the one month out timing is just a guess by these companies, in my opinion almost certainly greatly influenced by the need to get their phase 3 trials completed in rapid time. Imagine if they had chosen six months for the booster, we would still be waiting for results.

At least we could compromise and say six weeks for the Pfizer and Moderna boosters shots, that alone would save many lives by getting more people their first show now, instead of spending doses on second shots. 

Screen Shot 2021-01-28 at 6.08.00 AM.png

TD,

1. The results do not include a population with only the first shot. 

2. The results that you show at around 21 days are not statistically significant.  It looks hopeful that some level of immunity develops prior to getting firmly established by the 2nd shot.

The sample size is tiny and a difference of 3 or 4 cases would not be accepted as valid proof.      

The curve staying flat after 30 days is significant and the fact that it starts to curve away at 14 days gives hope that initial imunity starts to kick in but without a single does trial we are shooting in the dark

 

Anyway....its all a bit of a lottery. You can see that a certain amount of candidates still get covid.  In an inoculated population of 335 million, if all exposed directly to the CV19 virus, 33m would get covid.  The key hope is that the vaccine stifles the disease and we eventually create herd immunity and thus reduces chance of exposure

 

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3 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

But we still don't know much about reinfection, reinfection by a variant, ability to transmit if reinfected, etc. 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00071-6

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00121-z

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1 hour ago, NeedAClew said:

Have you dived deeper below those articles?  I suggest you do because what you will find is that there is no conclusive evidence.  Just the normal fear mongering and hand wringing by the usual suspects including the Imperial College.  No solid peer-reviewed research.

This latest thread of global fear originated from dubious research presented to the UK's NERVTAG in an effort to explain why the UK Winter surge in cases was occurring, why lockdown didn't seem to be working and to support further draconian Govt action.  

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26 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

 

This latest thread of global fear originated from dubious research presented to the UK's NERVTAG in an effort to explain why the UK Winter surge in cases was occurring, why lockdown didn't seem to be working and to support further draconian Govt action.  

A-ha! You link fearmongering as support for govt action. You do you, hun.

And wear a good mask or two,  less likely to get it. Lifemongering.

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17 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

You link fearmongering as support for govt action

Poor data, poor science = poor decision making = unintended consequences.

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Economists find that an unintended consequence of more US dead people is fewer people going about their precovid activities.  Your country whatever it is may vary.

Economic recovery requires big drop in dead people, apparently. Wear a mask, build back better.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/25/lockdowns-job-losses/

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Poor data, poor science = poor decision making = unintended consequences.

Poor decision making can be made on good data.

Excellent decision making can be made (and usually is made) on the back of incomplete data and good instincts.

History is replete with examples of procrastination and analysis paralysis. True leadership is based on educated but incomplete insight.  

There are always unintended consequences of every decision......we hope that the good ones outnumber the bad ones.

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On 1/28/2021 at 10:11 AM, NeedAClew said:

Just go see Biden to tell him the news and stfu here.

 

What? So I must just be quiet? On SA????????????? I don't even know Biden!

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20 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

TD,

1. The results do not include a population with only the first shot. 

2. The results that you show at around 21 days are not statistically significant.  It looks hopeful that some level of immunity develops prior to getting firmly established by the 2nd shot.

The sample size is tiny and a difference of 3 or 4 cases would not be accepted as valid proof.      

The curve staying flat after 30 days is significant and the fact that it starts to curve away at 14 days gives hope that initial imunity starts to kick in but without a single does trial we are shooting in the dark

 

Anyway....its all a bit of a lottery. You can see that a certain amount of candidates still get covid.  In an inoculated population of 335 million, if all exposed directly to the CV19 virus, 33m would get covid.  The key hope is that the vaccine stifles the disease and we eventually create herd immunity and thus reduces chance of exposure

 

Please tell me what is happening between day 10 and day 21 after receiving the first dose. I see perhaps one or two new infections in these 11 days for those with the first dose, compared with scores in the placebo group. I am now exactly 10 days out from having the first dose of Moderna, and feeling very good about it. Even off for a ski trip in the upper peninsula of Michigan with my family. And yes, still taking precautions, wearing a mask, avoiding non-family, eating outdoors in the cold, only family on the lifts, and luckily the hill is almost deserted. Snow is good, sun is shining, I'm happy and confident that even if I catch the virus now I will at worst have a mild case. Why not give this happy state to everyone possible and hold off on the second dose. Maybe three months is too much, but three weeks is too little in my opinion. We need boldness in the face of this crisis, not timidity.

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  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/opinion/covid-vaccine-booster.html?action=click&amp;module=Opinion&amp;pgtype=Homepage

One Dose Now for Everyone Most Likely to Die

Forget boosters and more trials. America’s overly prudent vaccination strategy is killing people.

By Adam Finn and Richard Malley

Dr. Finn and Dr. Malley are physicians specializing in infectious diseases and vaccinology.

  • Jan. 29, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

What? So I must just be quiet? On SA????????????? I don't even know Biden!

I would have been astonished if you did, unless you were from Delaware. I get the impression you take things very literally. But it's true I am tired of this notion of deferring because we don't know if it will be wasteful. WhatWhatever. Your opinion is God willing, just your opinion. 

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54 minutes ago, weightless said:

  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/opinion/covid-vaccine-booster.html?action=click&amp;module=Opinion&amp;pgtype=Homepage

One Dose Now for Everyone Most Likely to Die

Forget boosters and more trials. America’s overly prudent vaccination strategy is killing people.

By Adam Finn and Richard Malley

Dr. Finn and Dr. Malley are physicians specializing in infectious diseases and vaccinology.

  • Jan. 29, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET

Fine. I am likely to die if I get covid but not likely to get covid ifvI keep on as I have been for 10 months. I won't take a half dose one shot deal because it buys me nothing. 

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

Please tell me what is happening between day 10 and day 21 after receiving the first dose. I see perhaps one or two new infections in these 11 days for those with the first dose, compared with scores in the placebo group. I am now exactly 10 days out from having the first dose of Moderna, and feeling very good about it. Even off for a ski trip in the upper peninsula of Michigan with my family. And yes, still taking precautions, wearing a mask, avoiding non-family, eating outdoors in the cold, only family on the lifts, and luckily the hill is almost deserted. Snow is good, sun is shining, I'm happy and confident that even if I catch the virus now I will at worst have a mild case. Why not give this happy state to everyone possible and hold off on the second dose. Maybe three months is too much, but three weeks is too little in my opinion. We need boldness in the face of this crisis, not timidity.

TD......I genuinely think a preliminary level of protection kicks in after about 10 days......but the disciplined side of me argues that the statistical evidence is incomplete

However I agree with IPL when he posted elsewhere that there are many bad decisions based on good data and many good decisions based on incomplete data. In the end, generals in warfare, and doctors in the OR make educated decisions based on incomplete data .....the best ones have a good instinct.

My critique about the current vaccination schedule is that why are we even worrying about skipping the second dose when we are not even using all the vaccine supply that we currently have.  If I thought that vaccine supply was the issue, then yes, lets look at whether we delay the 2nd dose....but the problem seems more to be around logistics and math than factory supply.  We have approx 50 million doses and we have only dosed about 20 million arms.  Who cares if it is the first arm or the 2nd arm, when we have approximately 1/2 the vaccines sitting around in an archaic distribution system.

Mathematically, 80-100% of doses should be in arms on any one day. This is not like a retail store where you dont know how much you can sell on any given Sunday....you know that there is an arm available for every dose. That arm can be matched up with a dose within 6-8 hours of emerging from the final test at production.  Why is it sitting around in sheds?

 

 

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22 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

TD......I genuinely think a preliminary level of protection kicks in after about 10 days......but the disciplined side of me argues that the statistical evidence is incomplete

However I agree with IPL when he posted elsewhere that there are many bad decisions based on good data and many good decisions based on incomplete data. In the end, generals in warfare, and doctors in the OR make educated decisions based on incomplete data .....the best ones have a good instinct.

My critique about the current vaccination schedule is that why are we even worrying about skipping the second dose when we are not even using all the vaccine supply that we currently have.  If I thought that vaccine supply was the issue, then yes, lets look at whether we delay the 2nd dose....but the problem seems more to be around logistics and math than factory supply.  We have approx 50 million doses and we have only dosed about 20 million arms.  Who cares if it is the first arm or the 2nd arm, when we have approximately 1/2 the vaccines sitting around in an archaic distribution system.

Mathematically, 80-100% of doses should be in arms on any one day. This is not like a retail store where you dont know how much you can sell on any given Sunday....you know that there is an arm available for every dose. That arm can be matched up with a dose within 6-8 hours of emerging from the final test at production.  Why is it sitting around in sheds?

 

 

But this is changing quickly. 1.7m jabs today and vast masses of people happy to get it. Big cities shutting down mass vaccination because they don't have enough doses. Yet there are places holding back vaccine for the second dose. This is idiotic, it assumes there will be no further supply. Have we learned nothing about supply chains? Anyway, let's just get on with the first dose to as many people as possible before these new variants, all of which are already widespread in the US, overwhelm us.

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What evidence is there that having a first dose prevents new variants from overwhelming us? 

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3 hours ago, weightless said:

  https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/opinion/covid-vaccine-booster.html?action=click&amp;module=Opinion&amp;pgtype=Homepage

One Dose Now for Everyone Most Likely to Die

Forget boosters and more trials. America’s overly prudent vaccination strategy is killing people.

By Adam Finn and Richard Malley

Dr. Finn and Dr. Malley are physicians specializing in infectious diseases and vaccinology.

  • Jan. 29, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET

Fantastic, absolutely great opinion piece from real virologists, not just a molecular biologist like me. Hooray, now we just need the FDA, CDC, Fauci, etc. get on board.

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And the JnJ vaccine single dose does very well, and furthermore, they are starting a trial of a second dose, and guess what the gap is! Two months! Finally we are seeing movement in the right direction, just way late. As the NYT authors say, we need boldness, not timidity. This is a CRISIS, dammit.

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6 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Fantastic, absolutely great opinion piece from real virologists, not just a molecular biologist like me. Hooray, now we just need the FDA, CDC, Fauci, etc. get on board.

Yep great stuff quoting two obscure doctors writing opinion for that highly esteemed medical journal - The New York Times!

Of course there is always the Daily Mail quoting real on the field evidence from Israel - Two Pfizer doses prevent almost ALL Covid-19 cases: Israeli research https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9199645/Two-Pfizer-doses-99-96-effective-research-Israel-suggests.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

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7 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

What evidence is there that having a first dose prevents new variants from overwhelming us? 

None.  Nor any evidence that the "new" variants pose an increased mortality threat.

Them being "New" is a moot point as well.

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Sorry Kate, but you are losing this argument. More and more authorities are going to relax the gap to second dose, and we will be better off for it. Once again, you have no skin in this game hiding out on your isolated island, so best stay out of it with your trolling and misinformation.

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2 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Sorry Kate, but you are losing this argument. More and more authorities are going to relax the gap to second dose, and we will be better off for it. Once again, you have no skin in this game hiding out on your isolated island, so best stay out of it with your trolling and misinformation.

Which "Authorities"?  The one's that you have maligned to date for their mismanagement of the pandemic?  If you are referring to the UK then they are hardly the exemplar for pandemic management.  Justifiably they are under pressure now to back track on their decision to defer the second dose.  Not that it is going to make much difference as the number of new infections per day is dropping rapidly as it appears a large part of the population has already caught the virus.

How will "we" be better off?  You haven't quoted any research that supports your hypothesis which I find surprising for someone who professes to be a trained microbiologist.

Research based on REAL in the field data taken from a very much larger sample size than the trials shows that the full achievable effectiveness of the Pzifer and Moderna vaccines is only reached after TWO doses WITHIN the recommended time period.  Who would have thought that the developers of the vaccines knew what they had developed and were right!  Not you!  

As for misinformation - I put it to you that it is YOU that is misinforming either from a position of misguided self-interest or from ignorance.  You keep posting a graph and your own misinterpretation of what it shows to justify your approach. 

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I guess that's why everyone is so excited about JnJ vaccine being one dose. Turns out their one dose is as effective as the first dose of Moderna and Pfizer and AZ, all prevent well more than 50% of infections, and almost all severe infections, and all deaths. And of course, now JnJ is contemplating adding a second dose to bring them up to the 90+ effectiveness of the other vaccines. AND guess what, the interval they will test to the second dose is two months. Want to continue arguing with me that there is scientific evidence for 21 days, versus 28 days, versus 60 days, versus the UK approach of 90 days. Come on Kate, grow a brain, these are all just guesses, and the 90 days makes the most sense in the face of this crisis of rapidly-spreading variants (oops, forgot you don't accept they are rapidly-spreading, they just come to be the most common variants in the UK and SA by chance, right)

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