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Defer the second dose for three months


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BBC tonight reporting that AstraZeneca says its first dose gives sustained immunity thorough at least 76 days, so the UK decision to defer second doses till three months out, based initially on some rational thinking, now has experimental support. And a single dose is effective against transmission, very good news.

Dear old Kate, I definitely will get my second dose, a booster of a vaccine is very well understood to confer far superior immunity. That is not the point. The point is to give as many people as possible their first dose, conferring them sufficient immunity to ensure they will not suffer severe disease, as soon as possible and giving us a chance to beat back these new variants. I never said don't get the second dose. I will and everyone should, just at three months instead of 21/28 days.

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24 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

BBC tonight reporting that AstraZeneca says its first dose gives sustained immunity thorough at least 76 days,

I see the BBC ranks alongside the New York Times in your sources.  You forget to point out that the AstraZeneca vaccine has an effectiveness of only 70%.  Nor that the German authorising agency has recommended it shouldn't be used for over 65's.  Nor that the "sustained immunity" varies based on age, dose and time between doses.  Again - your views are dangerous recommending NOT following manufacturers recommendations.

24 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

The point is to give as many people as possible their first dose, conferring them sufficient immunity to ensure they will not suffer severe disease, as soon as possible and giving us a chance to beat back these new variants. I never said don't get the second dose. I will and everyone should, just at three months instead of 21/28 days

Which is a ludicrous and even dangerous approach as you are increasing the time that individuals do not have full protection.  Effectively you are creating individual virus factories with low but incomplete immunity (you don't even know who has what level) that potentially aid the development of more dangerous variants that are resistant to the vaccines.  As a microbiologist you should know better and can draw on your knowledge of the development of antibiotic resistance.

Doesn't it surprise you that the Governments that you point out that have been shocking at managing the pandemic are the same ones pushing the deferring of the second dose?

Whereas those that have done significantly better are not?

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  • 3 weeks later...

So today we get near-approval of the "single-shot" JnJ vaccine, and as far as I can tell its effectiveness is basically the same as a single dose of the Moderna/NIH and BioNtech/Pfizer vaccines. The effectiveness of a single dose of these two mRNA vaccines has now been confirmed by vast numbers in both Israel and the UK. So why doesn't the USA at least defer the second dose of the mRNA vaccines so we can get many more their first dose? Around here most doses are now being used for second doses, with only a few first doses being given.

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I agree. I revise my previous opinion. The UK numbers look promising enough to defer a second dose. 

Either this, or lockdowns really, really do work, but naysayers can't have it both (resp. neither) way.

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CBS reporter tonight on news notes that the UK approach of 12 weeks between doses of the BioNtech/Pfizer and Oxford/Astrazeneca is helping them contain their variant, while the US approach of sticking to the 3/4 week interval might not. And Fauci pleads for accelerated vaccine rollout to contain the endogenous and UK/SA/Br variants, but apparently still will not endorse delaying the second dose. Meanwhile my local PHD says this on their website, which does not help us get enough people vaccinated quickly. We are at nearly 30% of eligible county residents with their first dose, but stalling now. Delaying the second dose would allow us to get well over 50% and along with those who have already had covid put us within reach of herd immunity.

2nd Dose Appointments for those Vaccinated at IHotel. This week's allocation is mainly 2nd doses for previously vaccinated 1A/1B individuals. We expect to have more first doses allocations next week and the week after.

We are not currently setting up first dose clinics. Please keep an eye on our website and social media pages for information about when additional vaccines become available

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According to the New England Journal of Medicine...

We used documents submitted to the Food and Drug Administration2 to derive the vaccine efficacy beginning from 2 weeks after the first dose to before the second dose (Table 1). Even before the second dose, BNT162b2 was highly efficacious, with a vaccine efficacy of 92.6%, a finding similar to the first-dose efficacy of 92.1% reported for the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna).3

With such a highly protective first dose, the benefits derived from a scarce supply of vaccine could be maximized by deferring second doses until all priority group members are offered at least one dose. There may be uncertainty about the duration of protection with a single dose, but the administration of a second dose within 1 month after the first, as recommended, provides little added benefit in the short term, while high-risk persons who could have received a first dose with that vaccine supply are left completely unprotected. Given the current vaccine shortage, postponement of the second dose is a matter of national security that, if ignored, will certainly result in thousands of Covid-19–related hospitalizations and deaths this winter in the United States — hospitalizations and deaths that would have been prevented with a first dose of vaccine.

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Indeed Jules, and the data from Israel and the UK backs that up. A month after the first does of Pfizer you have 100% protection from hospitalization and death.

And now Canada is moving to deferring the second dose for three or even four months.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/canada-vaccine-panel-recommends-months-covid-doses-76239947

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That's cause they are single payer, poorer than US, and won't be getting enough to fully vaccinate everyone by summer. The way we will. 

And nobody knows how long the pfizzer one shot lasts as opposed to two shots. Be damn inconvenient if it was a lot shorter. 

 

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8 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

That's cause they are single payer, poorer than US, and won't be getting enough to fully vaccinate everyone by summer. The way we will. 

And nobody knows how long the pfizzer one shot lasts as opposed to two shots. Be damn inconvenient if it was a lot shorter. 

 

No, it is because we didn't maintain our own vaccine production facilities, and instead relied on promises from the pharma companies that they would support us when the time came.   Keep in mind that the pharma companies are suspicious of Canada because we want to reduce the length of time they can hold patents.  

Needless to say, we are now building our own vaccine production facilities, since we were fucked over by the pharmas.

If you think that single payer is poorer in any way than the US system, you definitely do need a clue.

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2 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Good idea in any case. 

I will say that the US VA system is better than what we have in Canada for our vets.   Oh, wait, its single-payer, isn't it.

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8 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

I will say that the US VA system is better than what we have in Canada for our vets.   Oh, wait, its single-payer, isn't it.

Yes but a small portion of citizenry and political pressures to do decent job. 

Single payer has to try to manage system  costs. Some don't even let over 55s immigrate for fear of their health care costs. 

We have mix of single payer and fragmented payers, even for one person over 65vand working with employer plan. 

And we are rich and are spending a buttload on vaccines and on administration. Where I live, they don't even ask if you have insurance, they just shoot you up for free. Well, my tax dollars at work.

So actually, we got US/Bill Gates/Dolly Parton single payer for vaccine and vaccination. But no cost minimization. 

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2 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Yes but a small portion of citizenry and political pressures to do decent job. 

Single payer has to try to manage system  costs. Some don't even let over 55s immigrate for fear of their health care costs. 

We have mix of single payer and fragmented payers, even for one person over 65vand working with employer plan. 

And we are rich and are spending a buttload on vaccines and on administration. Where I live, they don't even ask if you have insurance, they just shoot you up for free. Well, my tax dollars atbwork.

Sounds like god-damned socialism to me...

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On 2/24/2021 at 9:14 AM, TheDragon said:

So today we get near-approval of the "single-shot" JnJ vaccine, and as far as I can tell its effectiveness is basically the same as a single dose of the Moderna/NIH and BioNtech/Pfizer vaccines. The effectiveness of a single dose of these two mRNA vaccines has now been confirmed by vast numbers in both Israel and the UK. So why doesn't the USA at least defer the second dose of the mRNA vaccines so we can get many more their first dose? Around here most doses are now being used for second doses, with only a few first doses being given.

Around here it's mostly first doses still. 

J&J was tested in rougher environments, we actually don't know how Moderna would have done in Brazil. Around here they are counting on J&J for most new groups, since the oldies are getting second shots of whatever the first was. J&J and masks. 

 

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On 1/22/2021 at 4:29 PM, TheDragon said:

Unbelievable to me that the US has little sense of urgency to get vaccination done before these various more rapidly spreading variants overcome our hospitals just like is happening in the UK. They at least have the intelligence to defer the second dose for three months to get more people the first dose. Biden should issue an executive order that only first doses be given for now, with the second dose delayed till after his first 100 days. That way we vaccinate almost twice as many as the current approach. Then we would be well on our way to stopping this pandemic, and at a minimum we would prevent perhaps 100,000 deaths because if we can vaccinate everyone over 65 in the next month that would stop any of them from dying of covid. Plenty of evidence that the first dose gives most of your protection and prevents almost all instances of severe disease. We now know that having survived covid, patients get at least 6 months immunity, and no reason to believe it would be less with the vaccine, even just one dose. The failure to get vaccine into arms is a national disgrace. There are vast resources to get this done, from retired medical folk who can do the injections to pharmacies well experienced at doing it, what the fuck is wrong with this great country. For the first time ever I agree with Florida governor deSantis to get the vaccine to all over 65 first, and our Illinois Governor Pritzker has authorized the same so our county did that this week and all my 65+ friends are scheduled for next week or got it last week like me. Let's get on with it. We could send people to the moon in the 1960s but we can't do mass vaccination efficiently and sensibly in 2021?????????????????

Where is the evidence on efficacy level of 1 dose ?

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8 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Indeed Jules, and the data from Israel and the UK backs that up. A month after the first does of Pfizer you have 100% protection from hospitalization and death.

And now Canada is moving to deferring the second dose for three or even four months.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/canada-vaccine-panel-recommends-months-covid-doses-76239947

So you are saying that the deferment of the second dose is backed up by evidence gained through an "experiment" in the field that ignored the recommended protocol based on the trials done to get emergency approval.

is that ethical?

BTW your selextive quoting of Iraseli data is misinformation.  But that's cool you can get away with it here.

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

BTW your selextive [sic!]  quoting of Iraseli data is misinformation.  But that's cool you can get away with it here.

Trust him. He's an expert.

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Israel collaborated with Pfizer for early access on a large scale to do a massive nation-wide effort to see how it goes in the real world. Yes, they have the second shot after 21 days, but the data from day 14-21 shows few hospitalizations or subsequent deaths. Furthermore, since the second dose surely does not make a major difference till a week after it is given the data from day 21-28 is also informative and very protective.

In the UK they are only giving a single dose till very recently, and they have massive Pfizer data on it, showing near complete protection against hospitalization and deaths after three or four weeks. Because they started with 80+ individuals there were a few hospitalizations and deaths amoung them, but the 70+ and 60+ data look very good for almost complete protection against severe disease, the same as a single shot of JnJ. And of course, JnJ is now testing a booster or second shot to bring them up to 95% protection against symptomatic disease, same as the two mRNA vaccines.

The UK may have messed up several things on this pandemic, but they got this right. Canada is following their lead, and I anticipate that various European countries, which have been very slow on vaccination, even screwing up and saying 65+ should not get the Oxford/Astrazeneca shot, now retracted that shit, will follow suit. 

Really annoying is my home country of South Africa abandoning their initial supply of Oxford-Astrazeneca on the basis of a tiny local trial, when it would definitely prevent severe disease. So they are now using JnJ, which is no better, but all happy that it is a single shot when the OA single shot would have the same effect. Shameful.

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22 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Israel collaborated with Pfizer for early access on a large scale to do a massive nation-wide effort to see how it goes in the real world. Yes, they have the second shot after 21 days, but the data from day 14-21 shows few hospitalizations or subsequent deaths. Furthermore, since the second dose surely does not make a major difference till a week after it is given the data from day 21-28 is also informative and very protective.

In the UK they are only giving a single dose till very recently, and they have massive Pfizer data on it, showing near complete protection against hospitalization and deaths after three or four weeks. Because they started with 80+ individuals there were a few hospitalizations and deaths amoung them, but the 70+ and 60+ data look very good for almost complete protection against severe disease, the same as a single shot of JnJ. And of course, JnJ is now testing a booster or second shot to bring them up to 95% protection against symptomatic disease, same as the two mRNA vaccines.

The UK may have messed up several things on this pandemic, but they got this right. Canada is following their lead, and I anticipate that various European countries, which have been very slow on vaccination, even screwing up and saying 65+ should not get the Oxford/Astrazeneca shot, now retracted that shit, will follow suit. 

Really annoying is my home country of South Africa abandoning their initial supply of Oxford-Astrazeneca on the basis of a tiny local trial, when it would definitely prevent severe disease. So they are now using JnJ, which is no better, but all happy that it is a single shot when the OA single shot would have the same effect. Shameful.

If you don't expect your country to get enough vaccine until after the summer, cheeseparing measures might be a consideration.

Not the case in US. 

And if 78 year old lung transplant people can't get an appointment, it's not due to lack of vaccine. Either nobody helped them preregister or register, nobody helped them sign up at partner sites, or the locality is incompetent and or has crap IT. None of those are solved by only giving one dose. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Data from the UK's experiment with deferring the second dose for three months is looking very good. They have first doses into 30 million people, that's nearly half the population of 66m, approaching 2/3 of those eligible at the moment, and almost all those vulnerable to severe cases and death. Second doses are starting now, at about 3m. The data shows clearly that immunity from the single dose starts to kick in between day 10-14 and by day 30 gives 75% protection against symptomatic infection and essentially complete protection against hospitalization and death. You have to be very old and have serious co-morbidities to die of covid a month after a single dose. This is for BioNTech/Pfizer and Oxford/Astra-Zeneca, and is essentially the same as the single-dose JnJ/Jansen vaccine trial results. As a result the death rate in the UK has fallen precipitously, even as cases that also dropped precipitously due to their winter lockdown are leveling off (the latter presumably due to the lifting of restrictions and young people still getting infected). Pretty much good news all round, in the UK covid is now a largely survivable disease soon to become a mere "flu" or even "cold" as they will have everyone vaccinated this summer.

Why on earth the US is not doing the same to head off the third wave that is well underway now is completely beyond me. My county is just starting first doses again, having spent most of March giving second doses. We have 35% of eligible people with first dose and 28% with second dose, doing well, but we could have been at 60% with first dose by now, and instead spent April giving second doses. Oh well, I don't think we will have a third wave here, and even if we do it will only be young people, the hesitant, and the anti-vaxers. We are well down from our winter peak of cases, our hospital has only a few in ICU, so let's see if we can keep it there and even drive it further down.

 

Screen Shot 2021-03-27 at 5.41.38 AM.png

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Had my first shot of Pfizer today, and in the info the nurse is giving before the shot, she said 92% efficiency after 2 to 3 week of the 1st shot. I already have my apointment for the 2nd dose, in 4 month.

I already feel a bit of Bill Gates in me, wait... big update just got in, I have to reboot many times...

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  • 2 weeks later...

So Australia is also going with the three-month delay between first and second doses. Good for them, they are presumably paying great attention to the fantastic success of the UK approach, plus perhaps a little supply limited. Strange that New Zealand is not following suit.

locally Illinois is now starting into third wave, sadly, just hope the vaccination program can blunt it. Almost entirely driven by variants at this time, well over 50% of cases in our town are now variants, as the CDC predicted months ago.

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38 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

So Australia is also going with the three-month delay between first and second doses. Good for them, they are presumably paying great attention to the fantastic success of the UK approach, plus perhaps a little supply limited.

Geez is there no end to the way you twist the facts?

The deferment is for the Astra Zeneca vaccine and is not based on supply issues but evidence that for that particular vaccine the efficacy of the vaccine is increased by waiting 3 months.  As you well know the AZ vaccine is completely different to the Pzifer and Moderna vaccines in terms of its mode of action.

That aside Australia is experiencing supply issues and more importantly some hesitancy due to the reported clotting problems.

Australia purchased 80m doses of Astra Zeneca and it will be used in the majority of vaccinations.

As for the variant's explain this - the B1.1.7 variant was first identified in the UK in September of last year and in the USA in December.  If it is so contagious why did it take so long to become the dominant variant?  I suggest you apply your obviously limited science training to reviewing the NextStrain website AGAIN.

I'll give you a hint - the variants that make up over 70% of the sub-samples measured by NextStrain for North America have been in circulation since May 2020!  They AREN'T NEW!  B1.1.7 represents 16%.

 

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Try to explain the behaviour of a virus. Something that really don't care, like some of us.

Let say it started in December 2019 in Asia. You can correct me as you like for the starting date. It took two to three months to ramp up in North America, in normal living mode.

Recently, B1.1.7 started in September 2020 across the pond. With slowed down human movement, totally useless according to some of us, it took six months to ramp up in North America.

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13 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Geez is there no end to the way you twist the facts?

 

 

Can't see how I twisted anything, but your knickers certainly seem to be in a major twist.

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3 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Can't see how I twisted anything, but your knickers certainly seem to be in a major twist.

Well I guess the lack of a cogent articulate response to my opinions other than an ad hominem juvenile rejoinder would indicate that it is not I that is having a brain twist!

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9 hours ago, PeterSailor said:

Try to explain the behaviour of a virus. Something that really don't care, like some of us.

Let say it started in December 2019 in Asia. You can correct me as you like for the starting date. It took two to three months to ramp up in North America, in normal living mode.

Recently, B1.1.7 started in September 2020 across the pond. With slowed down human movement, totally useless according to some of us, it took six months to ramp up in North America.

The virus mutates constantly due to the type of virus it is unlike many other viruses.  Each single infection produces mutations (single point mutations) but not all mutations occur in an area on the virus that has an effect on infectiousness i.e. in the spike protein.  You may have seen caricatures of the virus as a round globe with spikes on it.  The spikes are the bit that attack human cells and insert the viral genetic material into the cell to replicate.  That is a simplistic way of looking at it.

You are correct with the dates that you are referring to.

The B1.1.7 variant was first identified in Kent, UK in September 2020.  The hysteria started after a report from NERVTAG and SAGE that indicated the variant MAY be more infectious and deadly than other variants.  The scientists who made this claim have a history of making such claims based on very little scientific evidence.  One of those associated with the claim was Dr Neil Fergusson the lead developer of the infamous and highly inaccurate Imperial College Pandemic Model.

This "news" was timed to explain the rise in cases in the UK and to justify further draconian lockdowns.  There still hasn't been any substantial evidence to show that the B1.1.7 variant is more infectious.  

There have been dominant variants since the beginning of the pandemic.  It took 4 months for B1.1.7 to become the dominant variant in Britain in January 2021.  The case rate PEAKED at the same time!  Now correlation doesn't always equal causation but if this variant is so bad why did it take so long to be dominant and only did so AFTER the cases peaked?

Of course some will say that "Lockdowns obviously worked in the UK".  But compare that to Sweden where deaths peaked at the end of December and although the B1.1.7 variant has been present for nearly an equivalent period of time!

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Now France also defer second dose, but only for six weeks. 

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On 4/13/2021 at 4:00 AM, TheDragon said:

Now France also defer second dose, but only for six weeks. 

Defer the second dose of what vaccine?

As you well know France have halted the AZ vaccination program so the decision to defer is likely to be a sub-optimal approach to trying to maintain the pace of vaccination.

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1 hour ago, TheDragon said:

Voices calling for the USA to wise up and defer the second dose are growing. This commentary by Carl Zimmer covers several of them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/health/covid-vaccine-second-dose-delay.html

Have you read the evidence based research that has actually looked at deferment and has concluded that it actually INCREASES susceptibility to Covid-19 illness?  

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On 4/8/2021 at 7:28 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

Of course some will say that "Lockdowns obviously worked in the UK".  But compare that to Sweden where deaths peaked at the end of December and although the B1.1.7 variant has been present for nearly an equivalent period of time!

Good on you Mikey, keep up the denial.

vLDyw-xLCco3nCu-Z6cehiJaQT-b2Z6JaAUK4RbZ

 

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1 hour ago, Monkey said:

Why bother?  Most of the U.S. can get the vaccine any time they want now. 

In theory, but not yet in practise, there are still millions to be vaccinated. Just look at Michigan where the governor is begging for more vaccine.

But the most frustrating thing is that if the US had deferred the second dose for three months (and Canada is going to four months), we would not be seeing this current surge. While this surge is mostly affecting younger people, it is still of major concern, for example in Illinois hospitalizations have doubled in the past month and many of these are younger patients, simply because most older folk like me are now vaccinated here.

Just to provide some local numbers, my county has given first doses to 45% of those eligible, that is, over 16 years old, and 33% have both doses. We started around the beginning of the year with vaccination on a serious scale (some medical folk were vaccinated in December). If we had deferred the second dose for three months we could have over 60% of our eligible population effectively vaccinated now, which would surely help a lot. Instead, we have a surge and hence we have not moved to the next stage of reopening, holding back both the economic recovery and major social events like university graduate, school graduations, sports events, conventions, etc, etc. We could have avoided this.

 

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39 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

In theory, but not yet in practise, there are still millions to be vaccinated. Just look at Michigan where the governor is begging for more vaccine.

But the most frustrating thing is that if the US had deferred the second dose for three months (and Canada is going to four months), we would not be seeing this current surge. While this surge is mostly affecting younger people, it is still of major concern, for example in Illinois hospitalizations have doubled in the past month and many of these are younger patients, simply because most older folk like me are now vaccinated here.

Just to provide some local numbers, my county has given first doses to 45% of those eligible, that is, over 16 years old, and 33% have both doses. We started around the beginning of the year with vaccination on a serious scale (some medical folk were vaccinated in December). If we had deferred the second dose for three months we could have over 60% of our eligible population effectively vaccinated now, which would surely help a lot. Instead, we have a surge and hence we have not moved to the next stage of reopening, holding back both the economic recovery and major social events like university graduate, school graduations, sports events, conventions, etc, etc. We could have avoided this.

 

I’ll just stick to the recommended schedule. I was supposed to get the J&J shot at work this week, but that fell through so I went online to sign up for one of the others figuring if I checked enough places, I could probably find one somewhere. Instead I found them available every single day this week, depending on which one I wanted and where I wanted to go. It’s pretty obvious that anyone who wants one can get one, so no point in delaying. 

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21 minutes ago, Monkey said:

I’ll just stick to the recommended schedule. I was supposed to get the J&J shot at work this week, but that fell through so I went online to sign up for one of the others figuring if I checked enough places, I could probably find one somewhere. Instead I found them available every single day this week, depending on which one I wanted and where I wanted to go. It’s pretty obvious that anyone who wants one can get one, so no point in delaying. 

Yea, that site is great until you actually click to get the appointment...  Been there done that for over a month.  Everything shows green until you actually click...  It varies by region.  Here you can't find a shot.  Had to go way up north to get my first, and only got that appointment because my wife found a women's clinic in an overly vax shy community for her mom a couple months ago.  I called them up and got an apptment the next week(the looks i got were funny, women's clinic and all).  Coworkers are going down to pueblo next week, as they opened the fairgrounds, but they were scrambling to get in there as well.  Corp just rented space to give everyone a chance to get one, Big intl corp, but they aren't going to be up and running until the 30th...  Good luck getting an appointment tho.  They are already recommending you log in every hr or so.  So no...  They may be widely available on paper, but no way in hell is it easy to get one...  

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14 minutes ago, Monkey said:

I’ll just stick to the recommended schedule. I was supposed to get the J&J shot at work this week, but that fell through so I went online to sign up for one of the others figuring if I checked enough places, I could probably find one somewhere. Instead I found them available every single day this week, depending on which one I wanted and where I wanted to go. It’s pretty obvious that anyone who wants one can get one, so no point in delaying. 

Interesting, care to tell us where you live? There are clearly some places not in that situation, but if that is generally true (I'm assuming the USA?) then it shows a greater reluctance to get vaccinated than I would have hoped.

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27 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

Interesting, care to tell us where you live? There are clearly some places not in that situation, but if that is generally true (I'm assuming the USA?) then it shows a greater reluctance to get vaccinated than I would have hoped.

I’m in Wisconsin. Our vaccinated percentage is slightly lower than your’s, but not drastically so. 40% first dose, 26% fully. We’re currently open to anyone over 16. 

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32 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yea, that site is great until you actually click to get the appointment...  Been there done that for over a month.  Everything shows green until you actually click...  It varies by region.  Here you can't find a shot.  Had to go way up north to get my first, and only got that appointment because my wife found a women's clinic in an overly vax shy community for her mom a couple months ago.  I called them up and got an apptment the next week(the looks i got were funny, women's clinic and all).  Coworkers are going down to pueblo next week, as they opened the fairgrounds, but they were scrambling to get in there as well.  Corp just rented space to give everyone a chance to get one, Big intl corp, but they aren't going to be up and running until the 30th...  Good luck getting an appointment tho.  They are already recommending you log in every hr or so.  So no...  They may be widely available on paper, but no way in hell is it easy to get one...  

I didn’t have any issues, but that was after getting redirected to the Prevea website, which worked just fine. 

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4 hours ago, TheDragon said:

Just to provide some local numbers, my county has given first doses to 45% of those eligible, that is, over 16 years old, and 33% have both doses.

Assuming you still live in the state of your esteemed university 75% of the Illinois over 65's have been vaccinated.  I guess that might explain why even though case numbers are increasing (not surging) fatalities are still declining.

4 hours ago, TheDragon said:

If we had deferred the second dose for three months we could have over 60% of our eligible population effectively vaccinated now, which would surely help a lot.

That is misinformation.  You use of the term "effectively vaccinated" is misleading and ambiguous.  Not particularly "following the science" is it?

You presumably still have full and free access to the latest journal publications.  I suggest you do a search on the effectiveness of deferment of the Pzifer and Moderna second doses.  There is ample evidence to disprove can only be YOUR hypothesis.

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14 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

That is misinformation. 

Listen to Mikey, he is a fucking expert on that shit.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I got my second dose of Moderna on Wenesday evening. Sure is kicking my ass. Fever and headache like if I had the real deal.

If i have to go through this every 6 to 9 months - I may just defer next time since I am not overweight, active, healthy and get plenty of natural sunlight.

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On 4/23/2021 at 12:22 PM, Black Jack said:

I got my second dose of Moderna on Wenesday evening. Sure is kicking my ass. Fever and headache like if I had the real deal.

If i have to go through this every 6 to 9 months - I may just defer next time since I am not overweight, active, healthy and get plenty of natural sunlight.

I had chills, fever, but still would prefer to schedule this discomfort for boosters rather than face unscheduled potentially very inconvenient covid. Positive test even if asymptomatic could keep me off a plane home, make me cancel a trip, get stuck in quarantine in Hawaii or somewhere worse...no thanks. 

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On 4/15/2021 at 4:05 AM, TheDragon said:

In theory, but not yet in practise, there are still millions to be vaccinated. Just look at Michigan where the governor is begging for more vaccine.

But the most frustrating thing is that if the US had deferred the second dose for three months (and Canada is going to four months), we would not be seeing this current surge. While this surge is mostly affecting younger people, it is still of major concern, for example in Illinois hospitalizations have doubled in the past month and many of these are younger patients, simply because most older folk like me are now vaccinated here.

Just to provide some local numbers, my county has given first doses to 45% of those eligible, that is, over 16 years old, and 33% have both doses. We started around the beginning of the year with vaccination on a serious scale (some medical folk were vaccinated in December). If we had deferred the second dose for three months we could have over 60% of our eligible population effectively vaccinated now, which would surely help a lot. Instead, we have a surge and hence we have not moved to the next stage of reopening, holding back both the economic recovery and major social events like university graduate, school graduations, sports events, conventions, etc, etc. We could have avoided this.

 

Brilliant work @TheDragon you got what you wanted:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/25/business/covid-vaccines-second-doses.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Millions of Americans are not getting the second doses of their Covid vaccines, and their ranks are growing.

More than five million people, or nearly 8% of those who got a first shot of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, have missed their second doses, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is more than double the rate among people who got inoculated in the first several weeks of the nationwide vaccine campaign.

Even as the country wrestles with the problem of millions of people who are wary about getting vaccinated at all, local health authorities are confronting an emerging challenge of ensuring that those who do get inoculated are doing so fully.

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In the US at least, supply exceeds demand at this stage. Please take the vaccine when the opportunity presents itself, rather than second-guessing people who really do know what they are talking about.

We are so close to success here.

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Locally we are now at 40% with two doses and 50% with one. We have tons of vaccine and having opened up to everyone over 16, the university and some high school students are now getting vaccinated. But we have pockets of intransigence, including a local newspaper opinion writer who opined about not being willing to inject something into his body.

i just had a most excellent week kitesurfing in Cape Hatteras with 30 longtime windsurfing and kiting friends from the Midwest, four large adjacent houses on the sound. All fully vaccinated and so no masks worn indoors or out for a week, only needed for two grocery store runs. Felt almost like old times. My first kitesurfing since rotator cuff tear diagnosis in September, so rode gently on strapless surfboard on the sound, mostly accompanying my daughter who nearly graduated from beginner to intermediate status by staying mostly upwind, but not quite able to return to her starting place.
 

We still have local COVID deaths, as usual mostly older folk, presumably ones who did not get vaccinated when they could have back in January. Sad to see, so unnecessary. Case numbers are relatively stable, and almost all are apparently the UK variant.

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  • 1 month later...

Interesting article from the NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/us/coronavirus-deaths-vaccines.html

Could the U.S. Have Saved More Lives? 5 Alternate Scenarios for the Vaccine Rollout

for all of the American successes, 100,000 people have died from the virus since February, after vaccine distribution was well underway. Many more have been infected and could face long-term medical problems.

snip

 

The Trump and Biden administrations debated numerous options, including ideas raised by the experts. There is by no means universal agreement about what should have been done, and no way of knowing with certainty whether different vaccination tactics would have resulted in fewer deaths.

Still, with the benefit of hindsight, experts pointed to several areas where the United States might have taken another approach. Here are five alternate scenarios:

1. The U.S. could have delayed second doses to partly protect more people.

 

By now, most people are familiar with the Pfizer and Moderna timelines: An initial dose of the vaccine, followed by a second shot three to four weeks later.

Some experts suggest that the United States could have delayed second doses of the vaccine for several weeks and instead given out first shots more widely to high risk people, in order to give some protection to more people. One dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine offers 80 percent protection after two weeks, compared with 90 percent from two doses, according to a federal report on efficacy under real world conditions. (The Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which was authorized later, comes in a single shot.)

“We spent a lot of February providing a lot of second shots to people who had gotten their first shot in January, when there were a ton of high risk people getting infected and dying, for whom a single shot would have made a big difference,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.


 

The delayed shot approach, which had not been rigorously tested, particularly over time and against virus variants, was hotly debated. Federal officials ultimately deemed it too risky, and Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, said he was opposed.

The approach, though experimental, was used in Britain, where officials delayed second shots by up to 12 weeks. (Britain also organized its rollout largely by age, starting with the oldest most likely to die from the virus and continuing in descending order.)

Deaths in Britain have plummeted — the country recently recorded a day with zero new deaths — and a recent study reported an intriguing finding: People who received the second shot 12 weeks later actually produced more antibodies than those who received their second shot after three weeks.

Still, Britain has seen a rise in cases in recent weeks and is now accelerating second doses in order to combat an outbreak of the Delta variant, which is more contagious and more likely to infect people who have had only one shot.

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Don't tell Kate, she has her panties all in a knot over this!

Obviously it would have saved a lot of lives, even just delaying both Pfizer and Moderna for two months (which is what I did), would have made a huge difference. There's even evidence that delaying gives even better immunity. Remember that they only tested these 3 and 4 week intervals so they could quickly get their vaccines through trials.

Now, of course, you really want your two shots to deal with the Indian/Delta variant as folks in the UK with only one shot are struggling with it. I'm surprised that noone seems to be suggesting that JnJ/Jansen recipients should get a second shot, of any of the vaccines, to shore them up against it, and whatever variants follow it. I even wonder if you can demand such a booster shot?

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11 minutes ago, TheDragon said:

I'm surprised that noone seems to be suggesting that JnJ/Jansen recipients should get a second shot, of any of the vaccines, to shore them up against it, and whatever variants follow it. I even wonder if you can demand such a booster shot?

Yep keep promoting recommendations that even the manufacturers or the EUA has approved.  How are your pharmaceutical shares faring?

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