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Why is it getting better? US / world


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Ohio is down to 6% of tests being positive and except for deaths our numbers are looking very good.  Our deaths are being adjusted for November and  December undercounts.   The US generally is looking better.  Germany never looked bad.  Spain, Poland and Mexico are looking better.   France is mediocre, maybe it's spread by wine.   Japan is looking better, but they increased restrictions a couple weeks ago.  By culture, most Japanese people follow directions and look for harmonious coexistence.     In America our convenience is more important then our neighbor's life.    

Postulates and opinions:

  1. Trump stopped holding mass Darwin events.  I'm sure this has had a positive effect in the US.
  2. Herd immunity is somehow reached at 5% vaccination.   Not a snowball's chance in hell.
  3. Herd immunity is reached in some areas.   Very likely, though immunity is transient.   The 9 states with > 1:500 citizens dead from COVID can predict over 40% of their population have been infected.   UK and Belgium are  around this level as well.   Likely many cities and clusters had levels twice that, with other areas having many fewer cases.   Incidence maps on a zip code level look like a mosaic, not a carpet.    Additionally not all people expose themselves equally.  Those whose jobs or personality result in a lot of human contact may have significant immunity while the introverts are still vulnerable.   Of course immunity from 6-12  months ago is now wearing off.   I personally know one woman who survived it in February 2020 (probable case, we weren't testing people that hadn't been overseas since the government was in denial that the US had community spread.   She was influenza negative, her hospital / doctors think think it likely and her husband had a travel history.   She died when reinfected last month.)    The virus is now endemic, so small ripples and continual culling of the weak would be expected to replace waves.   
  4. Holiday parties are over.  Stimulus money is gone.   Nobody has time or money to spread the disease, they are too busy getting by.   I think this is very true in Ohio.  The US stimulus package may create a new flair up.
  5. The dumbest people have died or are in a propofol coma, so the rest are being careful.  Even people living in Republican areas are able to properly wear a mask on occasion.   Though exposure continues, virus load is likely reduced so there are fewer bad outcomes.
  6. Life (and death) are fundamentally random, ebbs and flows are expected.  This has been true throughout the pandemic.    

 

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I think this is an example of the most insidious and selfish behavior possible. You are lumping the risks of ALL age groups, into one, homogenous group. This is, of course, wildly inaccurate.

Posting here is like being in the middle of a flat earther convention. You guys are just so convinced you're right - just badly ignoring all the data and science that says 'the earth is round'

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

Ohio is down to 6% of tests being positive and except for deaths our numbers are looking very good.  Our deaths are being adjusted for November and  December undercounts.   The US generally is looking better.  Germany never looked bad.  Spain, Poland and Mexico are looking better.   France is mediocre, maybe it's spread by wine.   Japan is looking better, but they increased restrictions a couple weeks ago.  By culture, most Japanese people follow directions and look for harmonious coexistence.     In America our convenience is more important then our neighbor's life.    

Postulates and opinions:

  1. Trump stopped holding mass Darwin events.  I'm sure this has had a positive effect in the US.
  2. Herd immunity is somehow reached at 5% vaccination.   Not a snowball's chance in hell.
  3. Herd immunity is reached in some areas.   Very likely, though immunity is transient.   The 9 states with > 1:500 citizens dead from COVID can predict over 40% of their population have been infected.   UK and Belgium are  around this level as well.   Likely many cities and clusters had levels twice that, with other areas having many fewer cases.   Incidence maps on a zip code level look like a mosaic, not a carpet.    Additionally not all people expose themselves equally.  Those whose jobs or personality result in a lot of human contact may have significant immunity while the introverts are still vulnerable.   Of course immunity from 6-12  months ago is now wearing off.   I personally know one woman who survived it in February 2020 (probable case, we weren't testing people that hadn't been overseas since the government was in denial that the US had community spread.   She was influenza negative, her hospital / doctors think think it likely and her husband had a travel history.   She died when reinfected last month.)    The virus is now endemic, so small ripples and continual culling of the weak would be expected to replace waves.   
  4. Holiday parties are over.  Stimulus money is gone.   Nobody has time or money to spread the disease, they are too busy getting by.   I think this is very true in Ohio.  The US stimulus package may create a new flair up.
  5. The dumbest people have died or are in a propofol coma, so the rest are being careful.  Even people living in Republican areas are able to properly wear a mask on occasion.   Though exposure continues, virus load is likely reduced so there are fewer bad outcomes.
  6. Life (and death) are fundamentally random, ebbs and flows are expected.  This has been true throughout the pandemic.    

 

7. Northern hemisphere is moving into spring?

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1 minute ago, Ncik said:

7. Northern hemisphere is moving into spring?

The eastern half finally dropped below 0 c.    Lake Erie wasn’t even frozen until a couple weeks ago,   

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1 minute ago, Lark said:

The eastern half finally dropped below 0 c.    Lake Erie wasn’t even frozen until a couple weeks ago,   

Fair enough, it was pure speculation, even the CDC excess death graph shows the baseline is still high at this time of year, but it is on the way down so peak flu season is probably coming to an end, even if the weather hasn't improved.

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22 minutes ago, Ncik said:

Ohio does look like it has peaked, but still excess deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

image.thumb.png.9b617e60c62a1a6f88e21b509cf4d856.png

 

 

Interesting link, I hadn’t seen that.   I’m not surprised.    I could have more precisely said ‘significant relative improvement to prior levels but not historic norms’.   ‘Looking very good’ had an advantage of brevity.    Interestingly Japan reported a significant drop in influenza infections compared to historic norms last month.   I haven’t seen Ohio’s data.   The end of flu season is presumably a combination of weather affecting viral stability and increase in immunity.    Or am I overlooking something?   

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1 minute ago, Cruisin Loser said:

Tom Brady told it to.

Buzzard beat my chiefs,    I won’t give him credit, no matter how good he is,  

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In my area, Covid started falling in mid November and is down to a fraction of what it was. Honestly, I believe it is due to a variation of herd immunity. Not the rediculous version that was originally being pushed though, just herd immunity amongst the most active spreaders. Our bars stayed open and stayed busy. Covid ran rampant through that crowd, but is now virtually a non-issue. My employer stayed open. Despite our best efforts, Covid had a pretty good run here. Now I know more people that have had it than haven’t. But now it’s almost nonexistent at work. 
 

I fully understand that it doesn’t mean herd immunity has been achieved to a level needed to work, just that it’s been achieved in the segment that was most actively spreading it. 

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number 5. i am still, a year into this, running into people that cant wear a mask, or social distance. i was in the line up at the grocery the other week and the fucktard behind me had his nose out. i asked him if he knew it was pointless to wear a mask like that. he told me that the virus was spread by the mouth. i asked if he knew that his nose and mouth were directly connected. he looked confused. another time in the check out, same store, a fucktard decided to squeeze by me as i was at the register.... literally squeezed by to stand behind me in line. i asked him point blank what the fuck he was doing and he gave me a confused look.

 i think that in america even the slightest up turn is looked on as being good because of how bad it is. im a canadian living in new mexico..... new mexico has the population of 1/3 the greater toronto area (2m to 6M), that population lives in 1/3 the area of all of ontario, as of yesterday new mexico had over twict the active cases of all of canada.

 

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On 2/11/2021 at 8:06 PM, Ncik said:

7. Northern hemisphere is moving into spring?

It is freezing cold in Northern US.  Everyone is huddled around a fire, too cold to go out

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5 minutes ago, IPLore said:

It is freezing cold in Northern US.  Everyone is huddled around a fire, too cold to go out

It's nice here in Florida.

It was cooler a couple of weeks ago. We had fires in the fireplace, which we don't often get to do these days.

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The US numbers are going down so fast, the last few days have reported cases 40%(!) below the 7 day average.
 

The numbers haven't been this low in the US since Summer.
 

The rate of decline, has accelerated as well recently.
Cases are in free fall in the US across the board.  States that have lockdown / no lockdowns / mask mandates / no masks.  All declining.

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 8.22.27 AM.png

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On 2/17/2021 at 2:28 AM, BlatantEcho said:

The US numbers are going down so fast, the last few days have reported cases 40%(!) below the 7 day average.
 

The numbers haven't been this low in the US since Summer.
 

The rate of decline, has accelerated as well recently.
Cases are in free fall in the US across the board.  States that have lockdown / no lockdowns / mask mandates / no masks.  All declining.

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 8.22.27 AM.png

It does as virus's do.....Gompertz curve.

 

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image.thumb.png.28139188ee410aad27050a6432965555.png

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On 2/12/2021 at 9:02 AM, Monkey said:

In my area, Covid started falling in mid November and is down to a fraction of what it was. Honestly, I believe it is due to a variation of herd immunity. Not the rediculous version that was originally being pushed though, just herd immunity amongst the most active spreaders. Our bars stayed open and stayed busy. Covid ran rampant through that crowd, but is now virtually a non-issue. My employer stayed open. Despite our best efforts, Covid had a pretty good run here. Now I know more people that have had it than haven’t. But now it’s almost nonexistent at work. 
 

I fully understand that it doesn’t mean herd immunity has been achieved to a level needed to work, just that it’s been achieved in the segment that was most actively spreading it. 

Hmmm... "partial herd immunity" is a nice concept but it only works if there is very little contact between partial herds. However, being in a "partial herd" or extended bio-bubble that includes a lot of people who are either vaccinated or have recovered will definitely help reduce the rate of spread within that group.

But it's like a forest fire that burns individual trees... and there is still plenty of fuel left. Very glad to see the country pulling back from the brink.

One of the things that is happening is that as hospitals have less of a crush of patients, more health care professionals can devote time to vaccination programs.

Still possible to have another wave with calamitous death counts... I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope people remain cautious.

- DSK

 

 

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2 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

Hmmm... "partial herd immunity" is a nice concept but it only works if there is very little contact between partial herds. However, being in a "partial herd" or extended bio-bubble that includes a lot of people who are either vaccinated or have recovered will definitely help reduce the rate of spread within that group.

But it's like a forest fire that burns individual trees... and there is still plenty of fuel left. Very glad to see the country pulling back from the brink.

One of the things that is happening is that as hospitals have less of a crush of patients, more health care professionals can devote time to vaccination programs.

Still possible to have another wave with calamitous death counts... I hope it doesn't happen but I also hope people remain cautious.

- DSK

 

 

Hopefully I was clear in saying my partial herd immunity theory is most definitely not a solution. I was just suggesting that one reason for the drop off might be that the most active spreaders have antibodies by now, so aren’t doing the spreading anymore. 

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Ours are where they were in October.

Think it's more distancing/mask use and positive peer pressure, plus fewer mass spreader events and holidays. We will see what spring break brings.  

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5 hours ago, Monkey said:

Hopefully I was clear in saying my partial herd immunity theory is most definitely not a solution. I was just suggesting that one reason for the drop off might be that the most active spreaders have antibodies by now, so aren’t doing the spreading anymore. 

Or they got sick, or people they know died, or got it again, and they are scared, whether they admit it or not.  Or maybe the word ‘mutation’ made a dent.  Like ‘Zombies’.  

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News got scarier too. The more dangerous virus specter has many wearing masks except in places that believes Jesus the savior would have carried a gun. 

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1 hour ago, Amati said:

Or they got sick, or people they know died, or got it again, and they are scared, whether they admit it or not.  Or maybe the word ‘mutation’ made a dent.  Like ‘Zombies’.  

Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Monkey said:

Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  

 

 

I agree with this. It's like the stock markets. They don't go straight up forever. Everybody that could get infected got infected and now we are in the waning days of this latest surge. I mean 300000 people were testing positive per day for months. That shit could only go on for so long and with 15 percent getting the first shot that is 50 percent effective and 10's of millions of people getting infected this wave just fagged out. Hopefully the summer and more vaccinations will kill it.

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2 hours ago, pusslicker said:

this wave just fagged out. Hopefully the summer and more vaccinations will kill it.

Are the epidemiologists saying this? All the ones I've heard say covid variants will be around for a good while yet, but likely/hopefully with reduced impact on society.

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14 hours ago, Monkey said:

Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  

 

 

Do you know for sure you can't carry it to other people in your bar, grocery store, etc. if reexposed?

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12 hours ago, Ncik said:

Are the epidemiologists saying this? All the ones I've heard say covid variants will be around for a good while yet, but likely/hopefully with reduced impact on society.

Of course it's going to be around for a long time like every other disease. I don't worry about catching polio or measles so I am assuming this will be the same thing? On SA I get to play the epidemiologist.

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15 hours ago, pusslicker said:
15 hours ago, Monkey said:

Nope, none of that. I’ve already confessed to having gone back to my happy hour joint. I’ve already tested positive for having the antibodies.  I know it’s stupid, but I carry on with my after work happy hour.  Pretty much most of my city does as well.  Our Covid numbers keep falling.  I think my theory is sound  

 

 

I agree with this. It's like the stock markets. They don't go straight up forever. Everybody that could get infected got infected and now we are in the waning days of this latest surge. I mean 300000 people were testing positive per day for months. That shit could only go on for so long and with 15 percent getting the first shot that is 50 percent effective and 10's of millions of people getting infected this wave just fagged out. Hopefully the summer and more vaccinations will kill it. 

Sorry, no.

By the wildest possible projections, your numbers are very far wrong. Seriously, "Everybody that could get infected got infected" is the whole population which is why the actual epidemiologists (real doctors, that is) have always said that 75~80% is the lowest threshold for any functional herd immunity. That's over 260 million in the USA.

OTOH it's possible that there are groups with little outside transmission where two things are happening, the people most likely to bring infection into the group have already had it or been vaccinated; and/or a greater majority within the group have already had it.

This model also accounts for the reduction in transmission where people that are at higher risk of transmitting it have smartened up and are protecting themselves better.

There is still plenty of fuel for this fire... I am hoping that we avoid another big wave but thinking that it somehow "just happens" or some other kind of magic will lead to disaster. It always does.

- DSK

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2 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Sorry, no.

By the wildest possible projections, your numbers are very far wrong. Seriously, "Everybody that could get infected got infected" is the whole population which is why the actual epidemiologists (real doctors, that is) have always said that 75~80% is the lowest threshold for any functional herd immunity. That's over 260 million in the USA.

OTOH it's possible that there are groups with little outside transmission where two things are happening, the people most likely to bring infection into the group have already had it or been vaccinated; and/or a greater majority within the group have already had it.

This model also accounts for the reduction in transmission where people that are at higher risk of transmitting it have smartened up and are protecting themselves better.

There is still plenty of fuel for this fire... I am hoping that we avoid another big wave but thinking that it somehow "just happens" or some other kind of magic will lead to disaster. It always does.

- DSK

Isn't the original question about why the numbers are going down? That's what I think. 70 percent of my group has had it. I'm careful and have been tested 3 times, but don't think I have had it. I'm only extrapolating from my tiny sample. Why do you think it's waning?

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1 minute ago, pusslicker said:

Isn't the original question about why the numbers are going down? That's what I think. 70 percent of my group has had it. I'm careful and have been tested 3 times, but don't think I have had it. I'm only extrapolating from my tiny sample. Why do you think it's waning?

The original question is why are the numbers so high.

This little threat to life continues to rage across the planet.  Do you rage against the efforts to contain it?

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Just now, pusslicker said:

Isn't the original question about why the numbers are going down? That's what I think. 70 percent of my group has had it. I'm careful and have been tested 3 times, but don't think I have had it. I'm only extrapolating from my tiny sample. Why do you think it's waning?

I think it's waning because a lot of people have had it and are immune for now (~ 28 million, or a bit under 10% of the whole US population), a lot of people are vaccinated (although it takes a couple of weeks for the vaccine protection to build up, AND it is still possible for vaccinated people to spread it... best info is that it cuts transmission/contagion by ~50%), and a lot of people who said "fuck that mask bullshit, the dadgum gubbermint cain't tell ME what to do!" are now either dead or being more careful after all.

If you extrapolate the additional -probable- cases from the number of probable asymptomatic cases, you could double the number that have acquired immunity up to 20%.

So the amount of 'available fuel' is still very large but the ways that it can catch fire have been pushed down... but if it starts spreading again, especially the newer more contagious variants, the potential for a worse outbreak than any we've had so far still exists.

Hopefully, if we can ramped up vaccination -AND- people stay careful for a few more months, this will really be behind us. How I am hoping!!!!

- DSK

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I agree with that. I'm just hoping the summer and vaccines are enough. I guess I'm just so sick of this shit that I'm overly optimistic that the summer and vaccines will be enough.

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3 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

Do you know for sure you can't carry it to other people in your bar, grocery store, etc. if reexposed?

Of course not. Do you know for sure that you can’t carry it to others once you’ve had the vaccine?  At a certain point you just have to play the odds and get on with life. 

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24 minutes ago, Monkey said:

Of course not. Do you know for sure that you can’t carry it to others once you’ve had the vaccine?  At a certain point you just have to play the odds WITH OTHER PEOPLE'S LIVES and get on with life. 

There, fify.

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50 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

There, fify.

Why don’t you tell us all what percentage of people who’ve had Covid have caught it a second time?  Is that number higher or lower than the 5% who the vaccine won’t work for?  The world can’t stay closed forever, even if you want it to. I’m going to enjoy dinner with my parents and brother at an actual restaurant tonight. Should be fun. By the way, my dad’s a doctor and mom’s a nurse, yet they’re not afraid of me because they know I already have the antibodies. They know the odds and have decided to get back to living life as well. I’m still a mask supporter because the numbers say they work. You’re judging me on your own fear, not the numbers. 

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Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible.  It hit nursing homes first, killed 30+% or more, the ones left either recovered or had some natural resistance.
 

Then when the younger crowd got sick of the lockdowns in the summer, it swept through them quickly and with a few exceptions, was mostly a mild cold.

The deaths in the fall were the older baby boomers, who started going back to work and socializing, and it killed lots of them because they are old, fat, amd unhealthy, and too fucking stupid to wear masks.

But at this point, there are not all that many who haven’t been previously exposed and are out & about left to infect. Maybe there will be one more wave, when all the shut-ins (like @Jack Sparrow) crawl out from under their rocks, but it’ll be less than before.

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42 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible.  It hit nursing homes first, killed 30+% or more, the ones left either recovered or had some natural resistance.
 

Then when the younger crowd got sick of the lockdowns in the summer, it swept through them quickly and with a few exceptions, was mostly a mild cold.

The deaths in the fall were the older baby boomers, who started going back to work and socializing, and it killed lots of them because they are old, fat, amd unhealthy, and too fucking stupid to wear masks.

But at this point, there are not all that many who haven’t been previously exposed and are out & about left to infect. Maybe there will be one more wave, when all the shut-ins (like @Jack Sparrow) crawl out from under their rocks, but it’ll be less than before.

That pretty much sums it up remarkably well. 

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2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible.  It hit nursing homes first, killed 30+% or more, the ones left either recovered or had some natural resistance.
 

Then when the younger crowd got sick of the lockdowns in the summer, it swept through them quickly and with a few exceptions, was mostly a mild cold.

The deaths in the fall were the older baby boomers, who started going back to work and socializing, and it killed lots of them because they are old, fat, amd unhealthy, and too fucking stupid to wear masks.

And wanted to see their families or took care of their grandkids or had to go to work in public facing jobs to support their families or lived in multigenerational households. But if they were old or fat or unhealthy, well eff em, right? 

 

2 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

But at this point, there are not all that many who haven’t been previously exposed and are out & about left to infect. Maybe there will be one more wave, when all the shut-ins (like @Jack Sparrow) crawl out from under their rocks, but it’ll be less than before.

The numbers don't quite jibe but I catch your drift. The scaredy Karens won't be much missed either, right?

2 hours ago, Monkey said:

That pretty much sums it up remarkably well. 

I am so glad you soulmates found each other. Often, lack of empathy is an impediment but it works on SA. 

Be careful never to get fat, sick, or aquire any lung or heart or vascular problems. Next pandemic you might be tossed into the eff em pool.  

 

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1 minute ago, NeedAClew said:

And wanted to see their families or took care of their grandkids or had to go to work in public facing jobs to support their families or lived in multigenerational households. But if they were old or fat or unhealthy, well eff em, right? 

It makes people here really mad when I call it like it is, but yeah... if you’re are 65 and fat, getting covid is going to be a lot worse that 35 and fit.  It’s not like this is new info, we’ve known this since March.

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4 hours ago, Monkey said:

Why don’t you tell us all what percentage of people who’ve had Covid have caught it a second time?  Is that number higher or lower than the 5% who the vaccine won’t work for?  The world can’t stay closed forever, even if you want it to. I’m going to enjoy dinner with my parents and brother at an actual restaurant tonight. Should be fun. By the way, my dad’s a doctor and mom’s a nurse, yet they’re not afraid of me because they know I already have the antibodies. They know the odds and have decided to get back to living life as well. I’m still a mask supporter because the numbers say they work. You’re judging me on your own fear, not the numbers. 

Nobody knows right now how long post covid immunity lasts, although the new variants may be able to infect someone. Nobody knows right now if fully vaccinated people can infect others. You and the vaccinated might or might not be asymptomatic carriers. Partying with the family is different than aerosoling grocery workers or other strangers. 

You know that.

Its just that the "your fear is not my problem" crap is so much fun.

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2 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

It makes people here really mad when I call it like it is, but yeah... if you’re are 65 and fat, getting covid is going to be a lot worse that 35 and fit.  It’s not like this is new info, we’ve known this since March.

You know how many thin people of any age got bad covid, became long haulers, got strokes, got disabled? It's not nonzero. Look it up and tell us so you can write them off too. I mean a 30 year old longhauler ex soccer player must have done something wrong to account for that misfortune.

Fat shaming and fat pandemic blaming is fun I'm sure. And BTW neither of the Clews are fat. Or smoked. 

I am not mad, just disgusted. 

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1 minute ago, NeedAClew said:

Nobody knows right now how long post covid immunity lasts, although the new variants may be able to infect someone. Nobody knows right now if fully vaccinated people can infect others.

It’s alarmist crap like that that’s keeping people from getting vaccinated and will make this pandemic last even longer.  Does it matter if you could eventually catch it again? Or if 10 people out of millions catch covid twice? No... it’s statistically irrelevant, and only interesting to alarmists. 
 

For 99.999% of the population, catching covid or getting a vaccine will protect for at least the next year, which is  enough to break the transmission chains.

 

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1 minute ago, NeedAClew said:

Look it up and tell us so you can write them off too

Not “writing them off”, I’m broadly characterizing a pandemic trend that has affected hundreds of millions. Of course some young, thin, healthy people have died or had bad infections. But the overall impact is grossly disproportionate on older and overweight. 

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3 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

Why is covid winding down in the US?  Because it’s mostly run it’s course through the population that was susceptible. 

....

 

No, that is VERY false and IMHO dangerous.

What is the percentage of people who have had Covid and recovered? What is the percentage approaching herd immunity? What is the percentage getting vaccinated?

Take a good look at those numbers and think it over.

- DSK

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Just now, Controversial_posts said:

Not “writing them off”, I’m broadly characterizing a pandemic trend that has affected hundreds of millions. Of course some young, thin, healthy people have died or had bad infections. But the overall impact is grossly disproportionate on older and overweight. 

OK now you're not posting "controversy" you're just posting stupid harmful crap. Are you a Russian troll getting paid to kill Americans?

Take a look at numbers of young people who recovered but with serious long-term health impact: cardiac (heart), lungs, or in thousands of cases life-long liver damage. Party on, Garth!

- DSK

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^cont posts  If you can't read, I can't do much.

Why should fully vaccinated people having the potential to infect others (what I said, I did not say they would get it twice) discourage vaccinations? It would encourage getting vaccinated. I got mine. If we don't know how long post covid immunity such as it is lasts, that encourages vaccination amongst the rational.

If you are talking vaccine reluctance, that's a different thing. 

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20 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

 

No, that is VERY false and IMHO dangerous.

What is the percentage of people who have had Covid and recovered? What is the percentage approaching herd immunity? What is the percentage getting vaccinated?

Take a good look at those numbers and think it over.

- DSK

Only 28 million confirmed cases and another 40-50 million vaccinated, but rates are down 76% in last 6 weeks. That can only be explained if the actual infection rate has actually been 5-6 times higher. The thing is that the US population is not homogeneous — some smaller portion of the population does most of the spreading bc they are “out and about”.  Once you reach “herd immunity” among the “spreaders”, infection rates drop faster than the math would otherwise suggest.

And that is  exactly what we are seeing. Fuck, it’s not like people suddenly started behaving more safely in the last 6 weeks, but the numbers have dropped tremendously. And not enough vaccines to explain it either.

 

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I am sorry if it upsets you that someone on this site tells it the way it is. But yeah, if you are old and fat, you are much more likely to die from covid. Saying the facts doesn’t = writing them off. Would you rather we all just pretend those are not the ones dying? Should i cherry pick the tiny proportion of  young people who have  died, so that the old guys here feel better?

 

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Where I live 90 percent of people on the streets and parks now wear masks. Even children. Biden. Variants. Community spirit? Wanting open schools and positivity rate needed to drop so that can happen? Incentives. 

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After a year, Florida and California have nearly the same per capita rates, despite wildly different approaches. Give it enough time and covid worked through both populations and is now only fading because its infected or killedenough of the population that there’s fewer hosts left to spread [efficiently.]

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11 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Only 28 million confirmed cases and another 40-50 million vaccinated, but rates are down 76% in last 6 weeks. That can only be explained if the actual infection rate has actually been 5-6 times higher.    ...

 

Wrong, less than 20 million in the USA have been vaccinated.

It can be explained by many things, or combination of factors. The rate of asymptomatic infection is unknown but the range is not difficult to infer and you're WAY wrong.

Claiming it's all over is literally playing Russian roulette, especially with new mutations coming out.

Please don't make stupid and dangerous assumptions

- DSK

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8 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Where I live 90 percent of people on the streets and parks now wear masks. Even children.

That’s great for virtue signaling, but probably doesn’t do jack shit for spreading the disease. The evidence points to people spreading it indoors where they are not wearing masks.  
 

Here in MD, masks have been mandatory since April, but it wasn’t until it got cold and everyone started hanging out inside that cases skyrocketed. It dropped to nearly nothing in the summer when everyone was interacting outside.  In the midwest, where it cooled down a month earlier, their cases jumped before us.

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Just now, Steam Flyer said:

Wrong, less than 20 million in the USA have been vaccinated.

No, wrong 40-50 million have received there first dose, which probably provides 70-80% protection for at least a period of time. If we wanted to crush this faster, using one dose and then following up with a 2-dose regimen would have more effect, overall.

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11 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

I am sorry if it upsets you that someone on this site tells it the way it is.

...

 

Oh, don't be sorry. Just shut the fuck up because you are very wrong and what you are saying is dangerous.

Can't you go give some gasoline and matches to little kids?

To say "everybody who is gonna catch it, has already caught it" when that is less than 10% of the population... is anybody that stupid?

2 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:
13 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Where I live 90 percent of people on the streets and parks now wear masks. Even children.

That’s great for virtue signaling, but probably doesn’t do jack shit for spreading the disease. ...

The evidence points to you being a paid troll, trying to kill more Americans.

So, to repeat.... shut the fuck up

- DSK

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Just now, Steam Flyer said:

To say "everybody who is gonna catch it, has already caught it" when that is less than 10% of the population... is anybody that stupid?

Nope. I said that the best explanation for the 77% drop in cases in the last 6 weeks is that the sub-population of  people most likely to catch & spread it have largely achieved something approaching herd immunity.

there are many tens of millions left who can catch it still, but they are largely the group that has isolated since  March (like my parents).  i think there will be a 4th wave, when the shut-ins come out of their houses, bc they think its safe and don’t get vaccinated. They will be a new “virgin population” for the disease, probably arounf May-June timeframe. Unfortunately.
 

But the data requires a high level of population immunity- there is no other explanation that fits. WSJ describes the math better than I can, here:

Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

Math is math. It doesn’t really care about your politics or anything else. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Controversial_posts said:

Nope. I said that the best explanation for the 77% drop in cases in the last 6 weeks is that the sub-population of  people most likely to catch & spread it have largely achieved something approaching herd immunity.

.....

Math is math...

 

Think about what you just said. The part I quoted, not the part that's bullshit like fatality rates, unknown infection rate, etc etc.

This is a country of over 330 million and less than 20% have acquired partial immunity due to either infection or vaccine. Furthermore, we know that the vaccinated can still spread it. Those are very simple facts and easily available from most non-bullshit sources.

So, think.

Or perhaps you'd better not. You're obviously an idiot. But it would still be better if you just shut the fuck up, with your lack of medical knowledge and your lack of math ability, you're just making a bad situation worse.

- DSK

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29 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

This is a country of over 330 million and less than 20% have acquired partial immunity due to either infection or vaccine. Furthermore, we know that the vaccinated can still spread it. Those are very simple facts and easily available from most non-bullshit sources.

The original question was “why are cases dropping”, you should take your crusade against (something??) to one of the many threads for covid crusaders.
 

I and others have provided a math-based explanation for the undeniable 75%+ case decline, that infers that the actual US infection rate is not 20% but closer to 50%. (15% of the population has already gotten their first shot, so right there your numbers are way off...) 

No, that is not enough for a population-level herd immunity”, but with diseases that spread exponentially, a 50% immune population => 50% drop. And When you consider that some % may already have natural resistance, and the immunity in some sub-populations is higher because of their greater exposure during the last year (e.g. bar tenders, grocery workers, etc), that very easily explains why this “wave” has burned out.

For some reason this explanation really bothers people, I guess because they fear that we are going to “let our guard down”.  But I look at my sailing crew, and at least 40% of the younger ones have had it, so right there they have been removed from the potential pool of spreaders.

29 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Furthermore, we know that the vaccinated can still spread it. Those are very simple facts and easily available from most non-bullshit sources.

sigh... this theoretically possible, but as long as the vaccine is working, the antibodies are killing the virus quickly (thats why you don’t get sick), and a vaccinated person is much less likely to spread it to anyone else.

this is like virus 101... always going to be outliers, but in general, vaccinated and recovered cases present no statistically meaningful public health threat. The message that they do, is a actual counterproductive because people are declining the vaccine believing there’s no point. 
 

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Monkey said:

Of course not. Do you know for sure that you can’t carry it to others once you’ve had the vaccine?  At a certain point you just have to play the odds and get on with life. 

I ride my motorsicle with blinds over my eyes.  Whatever is going to happen is going to happen anyway.

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It's funny to see all the 'follow the science' people now squirming when presented with, actual science.
 

@Controversial_posts - well done adding basic science and facts to this.
There is now a mountain of data that shows lockdowns / all sorts of mitigation - have little to no impact on anything.

BUT, the politicians and media keep pumping fear - it's the surefire way to profitville.
Old people in particular (who watch the news still, and read mainstream media) - love this, and spread it around too.
They don't change opinions quickly.  So, they keep making up new ways to ignore the data.
But new variants!!!  ahh!!  lol
 

As noted, states with wildly different policies, have experienced almost identical outcomes.  Strange.
Cases rise and fall, without concern for masks, or lockdowns, or anything.
 

And the classic line: 'in the last 6 weeks, everyone took it more seriously' is the most anti-science thing I've heard.

You guys all got sold a story, hook line and sinker.
Now you're backpedaling....

Double masks!  New President! 
Vaccine!  Social Distancing!  No Schools!
Washing hands!  New variants not as bad!
 

lol, ok, as you wish...

Just a gong show with you people blindly following career bureaucrats, politicians and media for the ride of your lives the last year.
Who profited?  Hmmmmm......
 

 

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9 hours ago, Controversial_posts said:

...

I and others have provided a math-based explanation for the undeniable 75%+ case decline,

...

 

No, you haven't

You've spouted a bunch of made-up bullshit.

If wishful thinking and hand-waving were real medicine, no doubt you'd be a major playah at the CDC. But you aren't, you're just a dumbass giving harmful advice on the internet. You're going to get more people killed, which is why I say "shut the fuck up"

- DSK

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https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases-by-zipcode
A heat map by Ohio zip code shows we are nowhere near herd immunity on a state wide basis.   There are large pockets of low exposure.       Edit.   Adjust for a heat map in ‘view by’ on the right.   

Reinfection is real.    Odds are most people are older the second time, and third...

I’m becoming concerned the next round of stimulus checks will time with fairly good weather and cause a bunch of leisure travel and infection / reinfection.    The New York crises and hospital ship fiasco was March / early April. 
 

As with a flash flood, an initial wave is replaced by smaller waves reverberating, and finally just inundation.  We haven’t reached inundation yet.

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The case that the alarmist perspective is being perpetuated despite what the realities might be is true in my view. However, if they put me in charge I would probably follow the same strategy as it is likely the only way to control us. Fear works and is the principle reason we might follow good practices. 

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8 minutes ago, danstanford said:

The case that the alarmist perspective is being perpetuated despite what the realities might be is true in my view. However, if they put me in charge I would probably follow the same strategy as it is likely the only way to control us. Fear works and is the principle reason we might follow good practices. 

Back last March/Apri: appeal to altruism and civic responsibility. Stay home, flatten the curve, mask to protect others.  Result: mockery, less than 50% maskwearing most places.

Now: double mask, the new variants are scarey, masks protect you,if community positivity is low enough schools will reopen. Result: Mask up, muhfuh, I gotta get these kids outta the house.

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54 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

Back last March/Apri: appeal to altruism and civic responsibility. Stay home, flatten the curve, mask to protect others.  Result: mockery, less than 50% maskwearing most places.

Now: double mask, the new variants are scarey, masks protect you,if community positivity is low enough schools will reopen. Result: Mask up, muhfuh, I gotta get these kids outta the house.

Reopening schools is one thing.  I think the Germans got that one right.   The Ohio governor threatened to stop vaccinating teachers as a priority if they didn't harden up and agree to get in a room with children again.   I objected to the shutdowns in March and still think they were a panic reaction based on poor data and false appraisals.   I do think this was largely the fault of the feds / CDC, with our abysmal failure to prepare, our embarrassing inability to test, and the paucity of decent recommendations.   DOL and CDC guidelines were basic and useless.   I understand the fomite danger was overemphasized and the benefit of masks was underrecognized as we learned about the disease.   I'm talking about basic timelines and projections that were clearly fiction, as I pointed out a year ago.   

Panicking governors shut down prematurely not because they had a lot of cases, but because they had cases and assumed they had a lot more about to break.   They lied to us with 'two week shutdowns' when anybody with basic infectious disease experience could predict a marathon instead of a sprint.    This mislead gullible businesses and made the economic consequences even worse .   Throwing money at lower middle class and poor people plus PPP loans are the only things that kept the economy functioning.   It also created many bubbles and labor shortages.    They should have had a committee of economists, business owners, epidemiologists and retired clinical physicians / nurses evaluate the costs and benefits of various actions.   The epidemiologists want to quarantine everybody until the disease is gone or everybody starves.   The economists want the stores to be full.  The business people want to know what to prepare for, so they can do their SWOT analysis.   We started with just the epidemiologists, then pushed them in a corner and only listened to the businessmen.   The results speak for themselves.  We paid nurses unemployment benefits during a pandemic!     

Out here the issue isn't double masking.  Its open air noses or not masking at all.    A coworker got escorted out of a casino last weekend for not wearing her mask.    Supposedly she was drinking so couldn't wear it.   She was still in a casino.   She's also a conspiracy loving Trumper, so this isn't a surprise.    Travel is up: regional; national and Mexico.   I don't see a problem of excess caution.  I see people deciding to return to life as normal.   I also have another coworker who's 30 year old daughter, without risk factors, was referred to the Cleveland Clinic for lesions on her brain and hypoesthesia weeks after a 'just the flu' case.    There needs to be some compromise between back to normal and economy crippling shut downs.   Throwing stimulus money at bored people isn't going to help.   Congress had a year to target the emergency spending.   They lack the imagination and intelligence.   

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1 hour ago, danstanford said:

The case that the alarmist perspective is being perpetuated despite what the realities might be is true in my view. However, if they put me in charge I would probably follow the same strategy as it is likely the only way to control us. Fear works and is the principle reason we might follow good practices. 

Fear works til it gets abused. Then it has the opposite effect. It’s basically chicken little or the boy who cried wolf in real life. It leads to the rabid anti maskers because people stop trusting the info they’re getting. I still wear a mask when I go anywhere where people aren’t there voluntarily knowing masks won’t be worn. The whole crew wears masks on one of three boats I race on because we come from all over the place and don’t run in the same social bubbles. I believe in the science, not the fear mongering. Meanwhile, I enjoyed a rather busy sailing season on fully crewed boats all year, and life has almost been normal. Had some of the most fun sailing conditions in my life that I would’ve missed out on if I’d been hiding at home. 

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1 hour ago, Monkey said:

 I would’ve missed out on if I’d been hiding at home. 

Monkey, I have been out in world sailing, golfing, and worked every day. I did however put in place every precaution I could for my employees and practiced good leadership there every day to re-assure them it was worth doing. I was/am not unduly afraid to be out there but I sure respect the rights of those who can and do stay out of harm's way. The only problem I have is with people who see themselves on the high ground and criticize others for what they see as the best path. I do not agree with my daughter and son-in-law who have chosen to let this control their work life but I am not about to criticize them for it.

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18 minutes ago, danstanford said:

Monkey, I have been out in world sailing, golfing, and worked every day. I did however put in place every precaution I could for my employees and practiced good leadership there every day to re-assure them it was worth doing. I was/am not unduly afraid to be out there but I sure respect the rights of those who can and do stay out of harm's way. The only problem I have is with people who see themselves on the high ground and criticize others for what they see as the best path. I do not agree with my daughter and son-in-law who have chosen to let this control their work life but I am not about to criticize them for it.

I think we’re strangely arguing against each other despite being on roughly the same ground. I’m just rolling with the science. Even though I know it’s probably pointless, I quarantine if I find out I was in direct contact with someone actively positive. I wear a mask when indoors in public. I’m polite about keeping my distance from people while in line to check out. Even though it’s probably unnecessary, I play by all the rules just in case, out of respect for others. However, science has said it’s safe for me to enjoy life again. That’s what I’m going to do. I know it offends a few people here, but I honestly believe I am not a risk to myself, or others. I’m basing that on the CDC and not Fox News!   Therefor, unless I hear otherwise, I’ll carry on with life. 

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2 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

^You didn't say that first off or I wouldn't have hassled you. Sorry. Way it read you were not masking or playing by rules  etc. 

Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I’m 100% respectful of everyone that’s out in public because they have to be. Places like grocery stores, gas stations, etc. are places that EVERYONE has to deal with. Unfortunately, that includes people that could really suffer from Covid. I do everything I can to respect their well being. I’m masked up at all times and keep my distance. I’m not a monster. I listen to the science. 

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18 hours ago, Monkey said:

Sorry if I wasn’t clear. I’m 100% respectful of everyone that’s out in public because they have to be. Places like grocery stores, gas stations, etc. are places that EVERYONE has to deal with. Unfortunately, that includes people that could really suffer from Covid. I do everything I can to respect their well being. I’m masked up at all times and keep my distance. I’m not a monster. I listen to the science. 

^ word ^

I've missed out more on socializing than sailing/boating this season, my primary crew is my wife, anyway.

Here in internet forums I am sure I appear as much more combative than in person. There are a few people who are aggressively spreading misinformation and 1- that really pisses me off and 2- it needs to be stomped on. I strongly suspect that at least some of this is due to people deliberately trying to harm Americans. The question is, why would other Americans (or an "English thru and thru" person) sign up with this agenda?

Persuasion is better than profanity. Locally, our yacht club led the way in taking measures to guide members on how to minimize risk, according to the best medical/science info available. Right now we're talking thru how to resume events with appropriate caution

- DSK

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On 2/20/2021 at 3:46 AM, pusslicker said:

Of course it's going to be around for a long time like every other disease. I don't worry about catching polio or measles so I am assuming this will be the same thing? On SA I get to play the epidemiologist.

So you don't actually believe it has "fagged out" or going to be killed by summer and vaccines in the near term? We can all be hyperbolic fools some times, but I'm still not sure what you're trying to say.

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8 hours ago, BlatantEcho said:

US cases just keep plummeting....  
Now at the same level as the 2020 summer peak.
 

Screen Shot 2021-02-21 at 12.24.43 PM.png

But that's still really high in absolute terms, not low enough to be a new normal baseline.

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It's better because we don't have a lying, narcissistic, sociopathic monster and his enablers in The People's House. I don't think the former guy had a card in his pocket every day with the number of dead written on it. 

I sure feel better. 

gettyimages-1231330447-2cb9ef0b3b8f64c301c637c43f69c58808aeb3bf-s800-c85.jpg

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On 2/20/2021 at 7:54 AM, Lark said:



Reinfection is real.    Odds are most people are older the second time, and third...

 

Yes it is real, a recent news article here listed a number of 50 cases of re-infection world wide.

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2 hours ago, danstanford said:

Yes it is real, a recent news article here listed a number of 50 cases of re-infection world wide.

I’d wish and hope that low number to be accurate,    The US especially had poor testing,    The surplus deaths show many severe cases weren’t diagnosed.    That means a proportionately much larger number of mild cases were also missed.    Therefore reinfection is also inevitably undercounted.

If immunity decays with blood antibodies then the areas hard hit a year ago are gradually becoming vulnerable.  Mild cases and people that had negative health changes after a year of not going to the gym are most vulnerable.   I’d argue the vulnerability of Spain and Queens to a new wave is yet to be determined on a practical matter.   The roll of cell mediated vs humoral immunity is still being explored.  There seems to be a lot of scientific concern that immunity does not last like we are used to with smallpox, measles or influenza strains,     Though mutations are thought to be slower then influenza this is still a RNA virus with billions of opportunities.   I want to think there will be significant partial immunity and a short ‘rev up period’ by memory cells, making reinfection less severe.    This would mostly offset the penalty of age, except in those newly developing serious concurrent disease causing (diabetes, obesity) or requiring immunosuppression (cancer requiring chemo or even radiation).   I have little evidence until people don’t die.   Heavily polluted but young India seems to offer a clue.   

The pandemic shows the futility of both lockdowns and herd immunity as coping plans.   Clearly a multifaceted and well thought out plan is necessary.   This does show just how easily society can shrug off a slow steady death loss as long as infrastructure is intact. 

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3 hours ago, Lark said:

The pandemic shows the futility of both lockdowns and herd immunity as coping plans.   Clearly a multifaceted and well thought out plan is necessary.   This does show just how easily society can shrug off a slow steady death loss as long as infrastructure is intact. 

Lark, I would challenge you to present such a plan that is sustainable or more sustainable than that which was used. If you can, it would be a great service to the world since most feel that this is not the last pandemic. Please use a broad definition of sustainable in that it cannot cause economic collapse and or more deaths due to the plan's actions/prohibitions. 

In addition, I think your last sentence is really quite an accurate assessment of the situation. It applies in this same way to smoking, alcohol, gambling, fast cars and many other causes of death that we tacitly endorse by not outlawing for a number of reasons. 

I am not being disingenuous here, I really do wish to further the conversation. One of the fascinating questions I have had since last spring is the question of Sweden's strategy and ultimately how good or misguided it will turn out to be. 

Dan 

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I love the forest. I hike a lot and have encountered many bears, cougars, wolves, coyotes, and moose, with moose being the ones I respect most, because they could kill me in an instant. Still, even with some too close encounters, I always go back, figuring if its gonna happen, its gonna happen. It would be a good death. Yet, covid, some minute invisible little fucker has me holed up like a little baby. That's just fucked up.

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33 minutes ago, Varan said:

I love the forest. I hike a lot and have encountered many bears, cougars, wolves, coyotes, and moose, with moose being the ones I respect most, because they could kill me in an instant. Still, even with some too close encounters, I always go back, figuring if its gonna happen, its gonna happen. It would be a good death. Yet, covid, some minute invisible little fucker has me holed up like a little baby. That's just fucked up.

That's perfectly rational.

This virus has killed more people than moose have in the last 12 months.

 

Besides, everyone wants to get past the virus so they can give their particular moose another chance...

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