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My thoughts/guesses/reading the tea leaves:

1 - I don’t think LRPP will have many toys left to add. They were spooked by being in the semi and threw pretty much everything on for the Semi - which explains the significant speed improvement

2 - LRPP remind me of ETNZ in 2017 


3 - ETNZ will know where things are at speed wise & I think they’re worried given their attempt to postpone the prada cup (giving themselves and UK more time). 
 

4 - ETNZ will be race rusty - mistakes will be made

It’s going to be close...

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36 minutes ago, Sailbydate said:

My prediction: 7 : 3 to ETNZ. 

I think 7:3 also, not sure which way.

Interestingly LR publicly hoping for light wind at the Prada cup presentation, implies they don't fancy their chances vs TNZ in upper range.

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Prada 7 - 3...  You heard it here first.

After watching their performance in the prada cup they are a polished team with a easily sailed boat... That is fast and constantly improving.

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1 hour ago, Rennmaus said:

Which Match thread will we use for the match, please? 

Make another one Rennie, you have the power and heaps mow legitimacy than these...

I was gonna make another couple or three, but then I looked in the mirror and realized I have little credibility

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4 minutes ago, barfy said:

Make another one Rennie, you have the power and heaps mow legitimacy than these...

I was gonna make another couple or three, but then I looked in the mirror and realized I have little credibility

Haha, as if it is not confusing enough to wade through 500+ posts in the morning, with topics scattered around several threads. Never mind, it's Anarchy. :)

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There has been a lot of criticism on this forum of media coverage of the AC so far. What this whole event needs is a rock-solid news source.
 
With only two weeks to the Match and having picked the wrong team to win the Prada Cup, I now feel suitably qualified and prepared to launch a new SAAC Special Report, featuring the very latest in Americas Cup intelligence.
 
It is based on the author’s extensive discussions with a seemingly endless parade of opinionated individuals encountered on North Head, many of whom claim “insider knowledge” via obscure and highly secretive connections into the respective Americas Cup teams. 
 
Many of these tip-offs are given extra credence by the wearing of team supporter’s caps and/or tee-shirts, sly glances, insider terms of familiarity like “Pete” and “Jimmy”, and sometimes even naming sources (for example, “Trevor, my cousin’s next door neighbour, who works for ETNZ’s photocopier paper supplier”).

Published at random intervals, it will also draw on confidential SA PMs, waterfront gossip, tea leaf-readings and blue-sky uninformed speculation. Plus a lot of time observing seagulls.
 
Sorry RG.
 
Introducing:

OneHears.jpg

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20 minutes ago, weta27 said:

I now feel suitably qualified and prepared to launch a new SAAC Special Report, featuring the very latest in Americas Cup intelligence.

Go for it! Nice 

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14 minutes ago, kenergy said:

I cant possibly trust someone with such a tidy desk

On Cup watch until the very end the beer and rum bottles along with the chippy packets are just to the left out of shot.

I have the replays playing when the wife passes by I told her it is a best of 99 regatta.

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Oh, and I forgot to mention that I saw NO out walking with partner and young child in push chair, right here in Devonport, just a few nights ago. That should boost my credibility I reckon.
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1 hour ago, weta27 said:
There has been a lot of criticism on this forum of media coverage of the AC so far. What this whole event needs is a rock-solid news source.
 
With only two weeks to the Match and having picked the wrong team to win the Prada Cup, I now feel suitably qualified and prepared to launch a new SAAC Special Report, featuring the very latest in Americas Cup intelligence.
 
It is based on the author’s extensive discussions with a seemingly endless parade of opinionated individuals encountered on North Head, many of whom claim “insider knowledge” via obscure and highly secretive connections into the respective Americas Cup teams. 
 
Many of these tip-offs are given extra credence by the wearing of team supporter’s caps and/or tee-shirts, sly glances, insider terms of familiarity like “Pete” and “Jimmy”, and sometimes even naming sources (for example, “Trevor, my cousin’s next door neighbour, who works for ETNZ’s photocopier paper supplier”).

Published at random intervals, it will also draw on confidential SA PMs, waterfront gossip, tea leaf-readings and blue-sky uninformed speculation. Plus a lot of time observing seagulls.
 
Sorry RG.
 
Introducing:

OneHears.jpg

At least as qualified as I am.

I picked the wrong team TWICE.

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One seagull two chips one next to a Italy flag one next to a nz flag under a cup remove cups and there's ya winner. 

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14 hours ago, Xlot said:

Odd ... why did I remember 9 too?

 

Maybe from SF? A theoretical 17 match series to match Larry's favorite number.  He didn't factor in the two bonus races we got

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With INEOS out I hope ETNZ win. 
While they are rumoured to have boat speed for days, the way Prada have their boat set up for light air and manoeuvring in terms of stability and power production/high modes etc I have a fear for ETNZ should the final be mired by sub 10 knot weather patterns. 
 

In terms the foil packages you have two diametrically opposed options and what that will mean is that one will be right and one very much won’t be and if it’s light air You’re likely to need as much surface area as you can

Sub10 I fear crushed kiwi dreams, over that it’s all ETNZ 

how’s that for some fence sitting ;-) 

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4 hours ago, JALhazmat said:

With INEOS out I hope ETNZ win. 
While they are rumoured to have boat speed for days, the way Prada have their boat set up for light air and manoeuvring in terms of stability and power production/high modes etc I have a fear for ETNZ should the final be mired by sub 10 knot weather patterns. 
 

In terms the foil packages you have two diametrically opposed options and what that will mean is that one will be right and one very much won’t be and if it’s light air You’re likely to need as much surface area as you can

Sub10 I fear crushed kiwi dreams, over that it’s all ETNZ 

how’s that for some fence sitting ;-) 

Ha ha ha..I read this one second.

But seriously,after winning last cycle by designing for the range under ten but above limit which is a huge percentage of conditions and likely to catch a competitor out of their design box, I highly doubt etnz won't be hugely competent in this range.

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34 minutes ago, barfy said:

Ha ha ha..I read this one second.

But seriously,after winning last cycle by designing for the range under ten but above limit which is a huge percentage of conditions and likely to catch a competitor out of their design box, I highly doubt etnz won't be hugely competent in this range.

It’s ok, I covered my arse with the one will be right and one wrong, if NZ  get them working With  good vmg sub 10 knots  then they are still right ;-) 

 

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15 hours ago, JALhazmat said:

if it’s light air You’re likely to need as much surface area as you can

But also wetted surface drag is more dominant at lower speed.

Albeit low speed for these things is top speeds most of us can only dream of attaining...

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On 2/22/2021 at 2:58 AM, weta27 said:

Published at random intervals, it will also draw on confidential SA PMs, waterfront gossip, tea leaf-readings and blue-sky uninformed speculation. Plus a lot of time observing seagulls.

Sounds brilliant. Exactly what I come here for.

Fuck facts. 

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Tucker Thompson's Cup Experience.......reasonably good vid. His analysis of Jimmy's starting tactics was interesting. Basically saying that the boat that leads back is generally winning the starts. If Jimmy is not leading back, he tries to setup to windward, and be in a strong position.

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On 2/22/2021 at 1:58 PM, weta27 said:

I now feel suitably qualified and prepared to launch a new SAAC Special Report, featuring the very latest in Americas Cup intelligence.

Look forward to your reports Weta!

PS: you haven't met my armchair yet - most opinionated piece of leather you'll ever find!  :D

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On 2/24/2021 at 12:27 PM, Horn Rock said:

Tucker Thompson's Cup Experience.......reasonably good vid. His analysis of Jimmy's starting tactics was interesting. Basically saying that the boat that leads back is generally winning the starts. If Jimmy is not leading back, he tries to setup to windward, and be in a strong position.

Yes, quite interesting discussion of JS/FB' s tactics.  I wonder if "Pistol Pete" will try to avoid confrontation pre-start, and aim for superior speed?

One image in the video was interesting... what's with GB's rather slack jib luff?

image.png.0edc8e26babc5b0f1eda38bd6a98c815.png

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On 2/24/2021 at 12:27 PM, Horn Rock said:

Tucker Thompson's Cup Experience.......reasonably good vid. His analysis of Jimmy's starting tactics was interesting. Basically saying that the boat that leads back is generally winning the starts. If Jimmy is not leading back, he tries to setup to windward, and be in a strong position.

I suspect PB would be quite happy to let Jimmy lead back - particularly from above the lay line.  With foils that are 50 percent bigger LR may have a better high mode, but TR will certainly have a much better low mode.  Leading in won't be much fun when the boat up your transom has 4+ knots more speed.

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Generic Auckland forecast based on ECMWF model.... On the edge of the forecasting range, but something to watch. You can do the MS -> KN calcs :)

but lets say 11 - 13.5 not sure what that means the gust would be.

 

image.thumb.png.26aed1af39572e51a7b24d2eb73ebf54.png

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8 minutes ago, Flags said:

Generic Auckland forecast based on ECMWF model.... On the edge of the forecasting range, but something to watch. You can do the MS -> KN calcs :)

but lets say 11 - 13.5 not sure what that means the gust would be.

" The Bureau's forecasts of wind speed and direction are the average of these gusts and lulls, measured over a 10-minute period at a height of 10 metres above sea level. The gusts during any 10-minute period are typically 40% higher than the average wind speed. For example, when the average wind speed is 25 knots, it is normal to experience gusts of 35 knots and lulls of lighter winds. Thunderstorm and squalls may produce even stronger gusts. "

http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/knowledge-centre/reference/wind.shtml

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10 hours ago, Flags said:

Generic Auckland forecast based on ECMWF model.... On the edge of the forecasting range

We will be on the edge of forecasting range on March 3rd....

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8 minutes ago, Cheap Beer said:

Nobody's mentioned it so far, but the start has been the decider. Spithill has been dialed in for the most part, and passing the leader is tough.

That's what we all thought in Bermuda too. 

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19 minutes ago, kenergy said:

That's what we all thought in Bermuda too. 

It's stunning to me how short people's memories are.

They let the opposition win almost every start and held back a bunch of their 11 herbs and spices.

Come cup time they pulled out a 5 litre tub of lube, emptied the contents out and then shoved the tub sideways up Jimmy's arse.

In the same vain as Anzac day, lest we forget.

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1 hour ago, kiwin said:

We will be on the edge of forecasting range on March 3rd....

Well actually, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, until you are in it, it's all a guess :) 

That forecast is from https://www.yr.no/en (Norwegian Meteorological Institute and NRK) who for whatever reason are weirdly accurate in the Aus alpine regions, but still not as good as BOM. BOM just don't do 9/10 day forecasts.

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Because of some arrogant fuckers in South Auckland, The Americas Cup start may be delayed. 

Theses low life scumbags were told to isolate and didn't. One mother fucker went to the gym and another to work at KFC. 

Now these fucking scumbags have just brought Auckland to a screeching halt for a week. 

I say these fuckers should be prosecuted for being dumb cunts. It's a disgrace. 

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1 minute ago, Salty Seacock said:

Because of some arrogant fuckers in South Auckland, The Americas Cup start may be delayed. 

Theses low life scumbags were told to isolate and didn't. One mother fucker went to the gym and another to work at KFC. 

Now these fucking scumbags have just brought Auckland to a screeching halt for a week. 

I say these fuckers should be prosecuted for being dumb cunts. It's a disgrace. 

It will be delayed for a least one day

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55 minutes ago, Salty Seacock said:

Because of some arrogant fuckers in South Auckland, The Americas Cup start may be delayed. 

Theses low life scumbags were told to isolate and didn't. One mother fucker went to the gym and another to work at KFC. 

Now these fucking scumbags have just brought Auckland to a screeching halt for a week. 

I say these fuckers should be prosecuted for being dumb cunts. It's a disgrace. 

Really?? Unbelievable

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2 hours ago, Salty Seacock said:

Because of some arrogant fuckers in South Auckland, The Americas Cup start may be delayed. 

Theses low life scumbags were told to isolate and didn't. One mother fucker went to the gym and another to work at KFC. 

Now these fucking scumbags have just brought Auckland to a screeching halt for a week. 

I say these fuckers should be prosecuted for being dumb cunts. It's a disgrace. 

Force fed KFC until their hair turns orange

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2 hours ago, Salty Seacock said:

Because of some arrogant fuckers in South Auckland, The Americas Cup start may be delayed. 

Theses low life scumbags were told to isolate and didn't. One mother fucker went to the gym and another to work at KFC. 

Now these fucking scumbags have just brought Auckland to a screeching halt for a week. 

I say these fuckers should be prosecuted for being dumb cunts. It's a disgrace. 

Well our esteemed PM won't call them dumb pricks and espouses kindness. Next breath says how frustrated she is and how it can't continue. She just won't man up and enforce restrictions because South Auckland is her stronghold, and hopes doling out cash will appease us. Probably typical of many politicians around the world. People are people and the stick not the carrot is the only way to contain covid properly. 

As for professional sports, they only care about themselves not the wider community. 

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^  should pop a level 4 on south Auckland. Not in retribution, but a susceptible population with demonstrated low levels of adherence. We are all paying for this.

And,

Did you all check in with Yur App everywhere you went today?

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9 hours ago, barfy said:

^  should pop a level 4 on south Auckland. Not in retribution, but a susceptible population with demonstrated low levels of adherence. We are all paying for this.

And,

Did you all check in with Yur App everywhere you went today?

Everywhere. Everytime. No exceptions.

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On 2/26/2021 at 9:23 PM, jaysper said:

It's stunning to me how short people's memories are.

Do you remember how many of the OR starts were split-second OCS, meaning that JS lost them rather than PB beating him to the line? 
 

I do expect ETNZ to do a lot better in starting than what happened in December, but let’s get a touch real :) 

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2 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

Do you remember how many of the OR starts were split-second OCS, meaning that JS lost them rather than PB beating him to the line? 
 

I do expect ETNZ to do a lot better in starting than what happened in December, but let’s get a touch real :) 

But Stinger, at the end of the day it doesn't matter HOW you get to mark 1 first.

What matters is if you DO.

The reality is through a combination of awesome starting by Burling and Spithill bending over and grabbing his ankles, the margin was 7 - 2.

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8 minutes ago, jaysper said:

But Stinger, at the end of the day it doesn't matter HOW you get to mark 1 first.

What matters is if you DO.

The reality is through a combination of awesome starting by Burling and Spithill bending over and grabbing his ankles, the margin was 7 - 2.

Okay ;) :)

They did supposedly had timer problems on board OR leading to micro-second OCS’s and Slingsby described them back in 2017. But it must surely be a concern, how many starts PB got beaten in, in December? I put a lot of confidence in the set plays that LR goes into the starts with, given JS’s confidence and history with Philippe Presti. But I put a lot less faith into LR’s ability to keep a tight cover on ETNZ even when nailing them on the startline.
 

Speed kills... 

 

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Just now, Stingray~ said:

Okay ;) :)

They did supposedly have timer problems on board OR, Slingsby described them back in 2017. But it must surely be a concern, how many starts PB got beaten in, in December? I put a lot of faith in set plays that LR goes into the starts, given JS’s confidence and history with Philippe Presti, but I put a lot less faith in LR’s ability to keep a tight cover on ETNZ even when nailing them on the startline. Speed kills... 

 

The whole point of my post is that it was obvious in Bermuda that Burling was sandbagging in the starts. Draper explicitly stated this on air.

Is Burling doing this again? Fuck nose, but it cannot be ruled out.

I for one think ETNZ are going to open a king sized can of whoop arse on LR and have said as much.

Am I wrong? Well, you and the rest of the Anarchists can barbeque me if I am ;)

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1 minute ago, jaysper said:

The whole point of my post is that it was obvious in Bermuda that Burling was sandbagging in the starts. Draper explicitly stated this on air.

Draper suggested that it was possible, yes. In my experience though, any sandbagging happens in what teams hold back in the latest gear. The sailors (jockeys) on their race-horses, they try to win no matter what! :) 

The crews on both boats are awesome, anything could happen. 

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5 minutes ago, jaysper said:

The whole point of my post is that it was obvious in Bermuda that Burling was sandbagging in the starts. Draper explicitly stated this on air.

Is Burling doing this again? Fuck nose, but it cannot be ruled out.

I for one think ETNZ are going to open a king sized can of whoop arse on LR and have said as much.

Am I wrong? Well, you and the rest of the Anarchists can barbeque me if I am ;)

I hope Burling will do sandbagging the first seven races ;)

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1 minute ago, Stingray~ said:

Draper suggested that it was possible, yes. In my experience though, any sandbagging happens in what teams hold back in the latest gear. The sailors (jockeys) on their race-horses, they try to win no matter what! :) 

The crews on both boats are awesome, anything could happen. 

He didn't suggest it was possible, he specifically said "they are allowing themselves to be hooked".

He was utterly unequivocal about it.

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2 minutes ago, strider470 said:

I hope Burling will do sandbagging the first seven races ;)

He absolutely will guaranteed.

All seven of Luna Rossa's losses will be restricted to no more than 2 minutes.

Hey, us Kiwis are generous that way :D

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Just now, jaysper said:

He absolutely will guaranteed.

All seven of Luna Rossa's losses will be restricted to no more than 2 minutes.

Hey, us Kiwis are generous that way :D

Jays, we are preparing a gift for ETNZ, you are going to need it in three years! :D :D

bandiera-sardegna-672.jpg.4f084d7b5588c687a419abbb07278b8a.jpg

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1 minute ago, strider470 said:

Jays, we are preparing a gift for ETNZ, you are going to need it in three years! :D :D

bandiera-sardegna-672.jpg.4f084d7b5588c687a419abbb07278b8a.jpg

Pardon my dumb sheep shagging ignorance but I don't get the reference.

I DO get that it is obviously something they would need to challenge in Italy, but thats about it.

Got a link to it?

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6 minutes ago, jaysper said:

Pardon my dumb sheep shagging ignorance but I don't get the reference.

I DO get that it is obviously something they would need to challenge in Italy, but thats about it.

Got a link to it?

It's the flag of Sardegna, where Cagliari is the main city. And speaking about sheeps... You will not find an Italian region with more sheeps than Sardegna! :D :D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sardinia

And it's not an ugly place for sightseeing between the races!

1.thumb.jpg.9f11cb20b212d07385fcc63b6ea04985.jpg2.thumb.jpg.ae0074365720000a1e8f1a48f88a6504.jpg3.jpg.b9ccc548f1de749167f79b8d4555583b.jpg

 

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4 minutes ago, strider470 said:

It's the flag of Sardegna, where Cagliari is the main city. And speaking about sheeps... You will not find an Italian region with more sheeps than Sardegna! :D :D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sardinia

And it's not an ugly place for sightseeing between the races!

1.thumb.jpg.9f11cb20b212d07385fcc63b6ea04985.jpg2.thumb.jpg.ae0074365720000a1e8f1a48f88a6504.jpg3.jpg.b9ccc548f1de749167f79b8d4555583b.jpg

 

THAT is beautiful.

I was gonna put some shit talking in here, but no. That is just plain gorgeous.

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1 minute ago, jaysper said:

THAT is beautiful.

I was gonna put some shit talking in here, but no. That is just plain gorgeous.

Agreed. Have never seen south of the Amalfi Coast but.. dang! 

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9 minutes ago, Xlot said:

I believe they originally were four Moors, taken prisoner and blindfolded

 

Does that in any way explain why Italians of Sicilian descent are so ... different? :) Son of a Sicilian, by any chance @Xlot? :) But then from what family tree did you inherit your intellect? 

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1 minute ago, Stingray~ said:

Agreed. Have never seen south of the Amalfi Coast but.. dang! 

Up in the Bay of Islands where Kiwing lives has some really gorgeous scenery, but I'm not sure they have anything quite like that. THAT is stunning.

Speaking of the Bay of Islands, the coasts are as little as a few kilometres apart in places and you find gold sand on one cost and white sand on the other.

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1 minute ago, Stingray~ said:

Does that in any way explain why Italians of Sicilian descent are so ... different? :) 

No, Sicily had (among others) a strong Arab influence. Sardinia was poorer and gravitated towards Genoa and Catalunya

 

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4 minutes ago, Xlot said:

No, Sicily had (among others) a strong Arab influence. Sardinia was poorer and gravitated towards Genoa and Catalunya

 

Are dialects in Sicily and Sardinia different enough that understanding them is a touch difficult for Romans, and/or Milanese? 

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1 minute ago, Xlot said:

No, Sicily had (among others) a strong Arab influence. Sardinia was poorer and gravitated towards Genoa and Catalunya

 

There is a small Island, in the south of Sardina not far from Cagliari, called Isola di S. Pietro, where the influence of Genoa was so strong that the local dialect and food are very similar up until today!

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1 minute ago, Stingray~ said:

Are dialects in Sicily and Sardinia different enough that undertaking them is a touch difficult for Romans, or Milanese? 

totally different. Italy is historically very fragmented.

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A bartender I got to know on Campo dei Fiori (Roma) was from Puglia and the other staff made a lot of fun of his language. He (a young little guy) had the most amazing personality and... singing voice! A gal from LA ‘fell in love’ with him, now he’s living with her and doing movie-studio auditions. 

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24 minutes ago, strider470 said:

You will not find an Italian region with more sheeps than Sardegna! :D :D

No wonder Spithill likes it there; A different ewe every night. 

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3 minutes ago, Stingray~ said:

A bartender I got to know on Campo dei Fiori (Roma) was from Puglia and the other staff made a lot of fun of his language. He (a young little guy) had the most amazing personality and... singing voice! A gal from LA ‘fell in love’ with him, now he’s living with her and doing movie-studio auditions. 

You see one of the LR sailors has taken up with one of our local TV presenters.

@strider470, it is great that she will be able to continue her career in NZ while continuing with the romance :D

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