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I believe their height measuring.  Some of the big platforms have a laser sight used to accurately measure wave heights, plus we all know our height of eye on the bridge of our ships and are trained t

Already on it mate!  We've been underway since 1900 last night, making around 9.5 knots.  We'll be on the western side of this monster by the time it makes its way into the gulf.

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Weird place to form, especially at this time of year.

Also weird is that none of the weather sites I checked have anything at all about this system.

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13 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Weird place to form, especially at this time of year.

Also weird is that none of the weather sites I checked have anything at all about this system.

NHC has been on it since yesterday.

Since you pay taxes for NOAA, may I suggest? And be advised, all the other hacks get their data from the NWS/NOAA so you may as well start there:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu May 20 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 650 miles east- 
northeast of Bermuda is now moving northward, and recent satellite 
wind data indicate that the system has gale-force winds.  The low 
is expected to turn westward and west-southwestward over warmer 
waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical 
cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. After that 
time, the system is expected to move toward the north and northeast 
into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more 
information on this developing low pressure area, please see High 
Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and 
forecast products, including a tropical storm watch, issued by the 
Bermuda Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts for this system can be found under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven
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7 minutes ago, Max Rockatansky said:

NHC has been on it since yesterday.

Since you pay taxes for NOAA, may I suggest? And be advised, all the other hacks get their data from the NWS/NOAA so you may as well start there:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

But I have not found NOAA non Pay information

I thought we all pay to have free access

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Yup, got two now to be watched, although the western Gulf of Mexico one looks like it will bring Texas some rain and wind, thats all.

2005488686_Capture0.thumb.JPG.ea62b5623fada7786c9a60fcc36667f9.JPG

15 hours ago, Rum Runner said:

I thought the storm needed warm water to form over. Pretty wild to start so far north.

True, it is strange that it would form over cooler water.  Here is the surface temps for the two areas of disturbance.

270322886_Capture00.JPG.df31cf6aff704bffff772fb1d58a27f0.JPG

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  • 1 month later...

First direct hit on Tampa in 100 years.  Very exciting!  Last time I had a brush with a Hurricane was Elena in 85 and I was at UF.    So far nothing is happening.

This is actually the worst case scenario for the area except for the Category of the storm.  It will be a good opportunity to gauge what a cat 3 or higher would do.  Models suggest a 20’ or higher surge would inundate downtown.  I’m 10’ above mean high tide so no worries today but some boats are going to get damage.  Walked by someone prepping his boat and stopped to point out his spring line was between the lifelines ....

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8 hours ago, Fakenews said:

This is actually the worst case scenario for the area except for the Category of the storm.

The exception that caused the yawn.

8 hours ago, Fakenews said:

It will be a good opportunity to gauge what a cat 3 or higher would do.

Not really. I actually rode out curricane Floyd on a boat and during the worst part of the storm went out in my 11 Whaler to fetch my brother from shore. People who tried to ride out Andrew on a boat mostly ended up dead. I doubt any of them attempted a dinghy mission during the worst part.

The rain band hanging over our area now is very electrical and woke me up. But other than the duration and the increased possibility for a tornado, it's just like any other summer tstorm.

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3 hours ago, Excoded Tom said:

The exception that caused the yawn.

Not really. I actually rode out curricane Floyd on a boat and during the worst part of the storm went out in my 11 Whaler to fetch my brother from shore. People who tried to ride out Andrew on a boat mostly ended up dead. I doubt any of them attempted a dinghy mission during the worst part.

The rain band hanging over our area now is very electrical and woke me up. But other than the duration and the increased possibility for a tornado, it's just like any other summer tstorm.

Those were primarily wind events.  A CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Tampa area just so (say Tarpon Springs) would be a wind and flood event.  There would be serious carnage in Pinellas and the barrier islands which are incredibly overdeveloped.  Given the geography of the bay an immense storm surge would hit downtown Tampa 20-30 ft.  Haven’t been out yet but this storm won’t tell us much.  It fell apart last night, most  breeze here was 30-35 knot gusts.

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1 hour ago, Fakenews said:

Those were primarily wind events.  A CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Tampa area just so (say Tarpon Springs) would be a wind and flood event.  There would be serious carnage in Pinellas and the barrier islands which are incredibly overdeveloped.  Given the geography of the bay an immense storm surge would hit downtown Tampa 20-30 ft.  Haven’t been out yet but this storm won’t tell us much.  It fell apart last night, most  breeze here was 30-35 knot gusts.

48 knot gust at Albert Whitted just before midnight.

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Very fast moving storm (Thankfully). Plenty of rain, on top of a lot of rain in the last month, but the winds were fairly mild, and only lasted a few hours. Lots of flooded roads and some power outages, but all in all just a soggy mess.

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After a lot of watching the hype, both on the Weather Channel and local news, next time a tropical system is headed this way:

  1. If all they are focusing on is wind gusts - turn the channel or turn the TV off
  2. If it's a tropical storm and outside the cone - no worries
  3. If it's a tropical storm and inside the cone or a hurricane - inside or outside the cone - take whatever the local news predicts and halve it.

But always keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center

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3 hours ago, Jules said:

After a lot of watching the hype, both on the Weather Channel and local news, next time a tropical system is headed this way:

  1. If all they are focusing on is wind gusts - turn the channel or turn the TV off
  2. If it's a tropical storm and outside the cone - no worries
  3. If it's a tropical storm and inside the cone or a hurricane - inside or outside the cone - take whatever the local news predicts and halve it.

But always keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center

I look at local weather sources to see how far inland the watches and warnings go. That's about it. Until yesterday morning, our little area was the only one in this end of the peninsula with no watches or warnings. I think we got a tornado watch mid day. All for a long pissy drizzle. 

The NHC Public Advisories have useful data. The "Present Movement" section has a numerical heading, for those watching close enough to plot a storm. That is the best way to really keep an eye on a dangerous storm and judge when you are in the clear or in the cross hairs. The news [brought to you by Home Depot] will always drag out the all clear message. 

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Elsa moved fast, like a cat. I recall hurricanes that hit SC, and took 3-4 days to meander up the coast to wipe out LIS and then fade out over Methuen, Mass a half a day later.

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15 hours ago, Sean said:

Thankfully it’s not a major - that blue dot is me sitting on my back deck. 

503D6657-00F3-4A72-BE2A-B27712480801.jpeg

It was fast here and is trucking faster there. In and out, quick like a bunny. 
 

I left my coffee sitting on my truck. It spilled but I will rebuild. 

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9 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

It was fast here and is trucking faster there. In and out, quick like a bunny. 
I left my coffee sitting on my truck. It spilled but I will rebuild. 

Thast the spiritte!                                  :)

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1 hour ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

It was fast here and is trucking faster there. In and out, quick like a bunny. 
 

I left my coffee sitting on my truck. It spilled but I will rebuild. 

 

4C0AA290-2E14-4A43-B927-E26082C29164.jpeg

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And where is this?

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  • 3 weeks later...
4 hours ago, MaxHeadroom said:

Will / can they rebuild????

Was it underneath a Rubbertree plant?

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Henri is spooling up North-East of Bermuda, and heading slowly West-Southwest.  This one might be interesting with a very warm Gulf Stream if and when it gets there.  We will see.

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2 hours ago, P_Wop said:

Henri is spooling up North-East of Bermuda, and heading slowly West-Southwest.  This one might be interesting with a very warm Gulf Stream if and when it gets there.  We will see.

Except for a few Crazy Eddie forecast models, Henri should be eventually heading for the Land of Bad Teeth.

96L_tracks_latest.png

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19 gusting to 24.

4,000 houses without power.

Give me a frigg'n break..

 

The only destruction from TS Fred is to the Weather Channel's credibility as they have been hyping 24/7 since Thursday night no matter what the NHC or European models were showing.

MF'ing attention whores flipping tricks to snag some cash.

Talk about Crying Wolf.  When a real one arrives nobody is going to be listening due to those chumps...

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It's the present weather patterns  the same as the perfect storm , high pressures from the mid west moving east , The remnants of Fred moving off of Maine , then add ts/hurricane Henri moving to Cape Cod? Any thoughts?

 The 1991 Perfect Storm, also known as The No-Name Storm (especially in the years immediately after it took place) and the Halloween Gale/Storm, was a nor'easter that absorbed Hurricane Grace, and ultimately evolved into a small unnamed hurricane itself late in its life cycle. The initial area of low pressure developed off the coast of Atlantic Canada on October 29. Forced southward by a ridge to its north, it reached its peak intensity as a large powerful cyclonehttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1430959785

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12 hours ago, Not for nothing said:

It's the present weather patterns  the same as the perfect storm , high pressures from the mid west moving east , The remnants of Fred moving off of Maine , then add ts/hurricane Henri moving to Cape Cod? Any thoughts?

 The 1991 Perfect to Storm, also known as The No-Name Storm (especially in the years immediately after it took place) and the Halloween Gale/Storm, was a nor'easter that absorbed Hurricane Grace, and ultimately evolved into a small unnamed hurricane itself late in its life cycle. The initial area of low pressure developed off the coast of Atlantic Canada on October 29. Forced southward by a ridge to its north, it reached its peak intensity as a large powerful cyclonehttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif?1430959785

and this week is the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Bob that tore up southern New England.

 

I was in Hong Kong the week before Bob hit.   Tracking it on this new Internet stuff..

Meetings ended and I had to get home as the SHTF was forecast-ed.  Got my ass pummeled for 4 hours in a 747 as we flew through a typhoon over Japan to get to SF.  Got back 2 days early and secured everything at home.  So the next day I went to Horseneck Beach on the MA/RI border with my Formula 18.  It was already rolling in.  Was flying hulls off of rolling waves for hours.

Still have a picture on my wall flying a hull with the wing in the water with the ugly grays of Bob sneaking up behind me taken by a friend on the beach.

When I packed up you could see the renters coming in with cases of beer and the owners leaving with everything they could get out of their summer homes.

Went home and remember the next day watching Boston TV cameras in New Bedford as a neighborhood a racing buddy lived in get tore up.

Went back a week later.  Horseneck beach was gone. Nothing but rocks as the sand had disappeared for miles in either direction.   The causeway had been breached.  The only things standing was the WW II concrete pillbox and a portapotti.  Tough MFer.

Then down to Hyannis to get some parts and see a buddy.   We went out for a sail.  In the evening gloom and fog power boats were bringing back 2-3 monohulls at time, while some big boat were leaning against houses around the harbor.

 

Hope you all have it easier than Bob..

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Not liking the latest tracking models. 
My boat is on the hard in Three Mile Harbor. That’s a couple miles west of Montauk. Rig up unfortunately.

Some trees too close to my house in Sag Harbor too. At least we’ll be on the back side if the track holds, any further shift west could suck big time.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Foreverslow said:

 

Still have a picture on my wall flying a hull with the wing in the water with the ugly grays of Bob sneaking up behind me taken by a friend on the beach.

 

send the pix, 

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1 hour ago, Sean said:

Looks like the consensus track has it going right over my house. 

Good luck. I will be feeling your pain as I have lived through my fair share of those destructive annoying bastards or bitches.

If there was one thing Hurricane Michael taught me was be prepared with basic supplies. It could be weeks until you get power and water back. Trust me.

And why does Mother Nature make it so damn hot the next couple days after a storm, it’s hard to clean up when you are sweating to death.

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1 hour ago, Sean said:

Looks like the consensus track has it going right over my house. 

I'll be checking the webcam of the ferry to Shelter Island , Hamptons.com - LIVE! South Ferry, Shelter Island, New York - YouTube

also my daughter on the Peconic river just west of Riverhead, supposedly not in a flood area? per Femi maps 

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2 minutes ago, Not for nothing said:

I'll be checking the webcam of the ferry to Shelter Island , Hamptons.com - LIVE! South Ferry, Shelter Island, New York - YouTube

also my daughter on the Peconic river just west of Riverhead, supposedly not in a flood area? per Femi maps 

I’ll be on that ferry tomorrow, I’ll wave. I’m in Vermont at the moment, I’ll have no time to prepare the property. 

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10 minutes ago, Sean said:

I’ll be on that ferry tomorrow, I’ll wave. I’m in Vermont at the moment, I’ll have no time to prepare the property. 

Where in Vermont , I ran a ski in Jamaica for years, funny the remnants of a hurricane took out the bridge by the west river cutting off the town from the fire dept. 

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15 minutes ago, Not for nothing said:

Where in Vermont , I ran a ski in Jamaica for years, funny the remnants of a hurricane took out the bridge by the west river cutting off the town from the fire dept. 

Tiny town (if you could call it that) called Waits River. 
pic is taken from the end of the driveway. 

CC68CC8D-1087-4835-A868-F70A5740E5E9.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, quod umbra said:

Say hi to Billy Joel when you get back into town.

He’s got an awesome set up in town. Bought house that came with a launching ramp across the street. 

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1 hour ago, Not for nothing said:

Where in Vermont , I ran a ski in Jamaica for years, funny the remnants of a hurricane took out the bridge by the west river cutting off the town from the fire dept. 

Newfane, Wardsboro, and Townsend had to cover, eh? I remember covering a fire in S. Newfane, West Dover, and Willmington one year (From Marlboro), That one in Willmington gave me frostbite on my fingers and toes. No one knew I'd jumped on to the tail of the truck as it left the station. Up over the cape, and Hogback mt. on Rt. 9 down to the structure fire just south of the center of Willmington.... By the time we got there my mittens(and liners) were frozen solid to the grab rail. They put me in the cab of the truck and told me not to move until my fingers and feet felt like they were on fire. That was about a half hour. I got out, and could smell the burnt people. Around dawn the women's auxiliary showed up with bologna and yellow mustard sandwiches with scalding hot black coffee. To this day the smell of bologna and yellow mustard turns my stomach.

But yes, Irene really fucked that part of New England hard. My sister (Who still lives in M'boro)  lost her bridge and had to rely on neighbors for transportation for weeks. Rt. 9 was washed out completely in several spots. Dot's in Wilmington had a new high water mark on their wall (Previous one from the '38 hurricane). I went up a month later and the wreckage was still everywhere. The Whetstone brook had carved a new route. The West river looked like something from Montana it was so wide in places.

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6 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

Newfane, Wardsboro, and Townsend had to cover, eh? I remember covering a fire in S. Newfane, West Dover, and Willmington one year (From Marlboro), That one in Willmington gave me frostbite on my fingers and toes. No one knew I'd jumped on to the tail of the truck as it left the station. Up over the cape, and Hogback mt. on Rt. 9 down to the structure fire just south of the center of Willmington.... By the time we got there my mittens(and liners) were frozen solid to the grab rail. They put me in the cab of the truck and told me not to move until my fingers and feet felt like they were on fire. That was about a half hour. I got out, and could smell the burnt people. Around dawn the women's auxiliary showed up with bologna and yellow mustard sandwiches with scalding hot black coffee. To this day the smell of bologna and yellow mustard turns my stomach.

But yes, Irene really fucked that part of New England hard. My sister (Who still lives in M'boro)  lost her bridge and had to rely on neighbors for transportation for weeks. Rt. 9 was washed out completely in several spots. Dot's in Wilmington had a new high water mark on their wall (Previous one from the '38 hurricane). I went up a month later and the wreckage was still everywhere. The Whetstone brook had carved a new route. The West river looked like something from Montana it was so wide in places.

bring back memories  of that area, We white water raft the west river ( before Irene ) wonder if the general store is still there?

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18 minutes ago, quod umbra said:

At first Art thought it was unfair, he only had one travel lift and a dozen boats on the hard..... another 100 got him past that!

Bob Dylan used to say that money doesn't talk, it swears.

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14 hours ago, Not for nothing said:

bring back memories  of that area, We white water raft the west river ( before Irene ) wonder if the general store is still there?

Which general store? I think the one in S. Newfane is still there, but under different owners..... But that may be dated info, and really, S. Newfane is on the Rock River..... You know the deep cold as ice swimming hole, by Hobby Hill?

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8 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Which general store? I think the one in S. Newfane is still there, but under different owners..... But that may be dated info, and really, S. Newfane is on the Rock River..... You know the deep cold as ice swimming hole, by Hobby Hill?

I'm sorry. I meant Williamsville. Not S. Newfane.

Our big truck couldn't get through the Williamsville covered bridge, but out "Lake piped convertible" American LaFrance just cleared it.....

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15 minutes ago, Mrleft8 said:

Which general store? I think the one in S. Newfane is still there, but under different owners..... But that may be dated info, and really, S. Newfane is on the Rock River..... You know the deep cold as ice swimming hole, by Hobby Hill?

The one in Jamaica on rte 30/100 just pass Depot st, Google maps still show it 

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Had big boats moving up the Hudson passed me all day today presumably to try to find somewhere safe and they were unable to find somewhere to go in western Long Island sound or New York harbor. Nantucket and Block  look like they’re going to get fucking pounded and then it looks like the hurricane may take a jog to the left somewhere near the Connecticut New York border ( close to me) for taking a hard right turn 

my neighbor who is a weather service meteorologist told me that where I am and where we are it’s gonna be fucking awful but not as awful as those were on the east side of the storm. We’re planning on seeing sustain 25 to 35 all day tomorrow and tomorrow night and 3 to 5 inches of rain which is going to suck. 
 

hold on for a wild ride and everyone in its path stay safe 

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1 hour ago, dacapo said:

Had big boats moving up the Hudson passed me all day today presumably to try to find somewhere safe and they were unable to find somewhere to go in western Long Island sound or New York harbor. Nantucket and Block  look like they’re going to get fucking pounded and then it looks like the hurricane may take a jog to the left somewhere near the Connecticut New York border ( close to me) for taking a hard right turn 

my neighbor who is a weather service meteorologist told me that where I am and where we are it’s gonna be fucking awful but not as awful as those were on the east side of the storm. We’re planning on seeing sustain 25 to 35 all day tomorrow and tomorrow night and 3 to 5 inches of rain which is going to suck. 
 

hold on for a wild ride and everyone in its path stay safe 

Ya. The ground's already saturated. I do believe that if this thing doesn't wander far to the east, that a big tree will fall down. Probably many. Remember Gloria more than Irene I think.

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2 hours ago, Not for nothing said:

The one in Jamaica on rte 30/100 just pass Depot st, Google maps still show it 

Oh! Boi th' jeez! I ain't bin theyra in 42 yeahs I don't think..... That place still open?

(Sorry, the accent just popped up)

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9 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

Oh! Boi th' jeez! I ain't bin theyra in 42 yeahs I don't think..... That place still open?

(Sorry, the accent just popped up)

looking at google maps , it's still there , and hasn't change much, use to walk there from the house we rented, for the season

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23 hours ago, quod umbra said:

Your T 38..... on the hard mast up.... years ago when my boat was on the hard with mast up and a hurricane came a knocking, I did two things. First I took the main and wing halyards and tied them to some trees..... not sure if that was any help, but what else can you do. The second thing I did was to walk into Art's office (you know who I am talking about) and handed him a couple of hundred to have Woody (you know who I am talking about) move the Travel-lift around my boat and set the straps. She was still solidly on the stands, just sort of a belts and suspenders sort of deal.
At first Art thought it was unfair, he only had one travel lift and a dozen boats on the hard..... another 100 got him past that!

Art kicked me out a few years ago. I didn’t spend enough $$ as I did all the work on the boat I could. It’s Sag Harbor; no shortage of deep pocketed boat owners.

 

A5F1CC9E-DA44-4898-AC7C-7ED8565CEA16.jpeg

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Just got off the phone w/ a friend in Westbrook, CT. "Nothing. Not even very much rain. The tide was high, but it's also a full moon.".

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20 hours ago, Mrleft8 said:

Oh! Boi th' jeez! I ain't bin theyra in 42 yeahs I don't think..... That place still open?

(Sorry, the accent just popped up)

It's still there. I get down to paddle the West a couple times a year with my Daughter.

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4 hours ago, bored broker said:

It's still there. I get down to paddle the West a couple times a year with my Daughter.

I wish I could get Grafton Cheddar down here for less than $60 Lb.

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Yesterday was the anniversary of hurricane Andrew hitting Miami.

I grew up there and never saw a real hurricane before. It was kind of exciting watching it on the cable weather channel as it marched across the Bahamas and then the Gulf Stream, heading straight at us. It was supposed to turn, so we didn't leave.

I remember walking around my house in foul weather gear, trying to guess when and how it would finish coming apart. Then an inspiration hit: I could crawl under the seats in the back of my van. That way, when the garage crushed the van, the seat frames might save me!

Then another inspiration hit: that's a really stupid survival plan and if that's your plan, you should have used that van to leave much sooner.

I'll never sit through another one if I have a working vehicle.

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2 hours ago, Excoded Tom said:

Yesterday was the anniversary of hurricane Andrew hitting Miami.

I grew up there and never saw a real hurricane before. It was kind of exciting watching it on the cable weather channel as it marched across the Bahamas and then the Gulf Stream, heading straight at us. It was supposed to turn, so we didn't leave.

I remember walking around my house in foul weather gear, trying to guess when and how it would finish coming apart. Then an inspiration hit: I could crawl under the seats in the back of my van. That way, when the garage crushed the van, the seat frames might save me!

Then another inspiration hit: that's a really stupid survival plan and if that's your plan, you should have used that van to leave much sooner.

I'll never sit through another one if I have a working vehicle.

I experienced Andrew in a colleagues grandmother's house in Homestead.  We were both Northeners and naive.  When ceiling tiles from across the street started penetrating the walls, shit got serious.  In the morning, devastation unlike anything I'd ever seen.  Company rental car and everyone was free to use it.  It was fun turning it in.  Get out if a hurricane has you in it's crosshairs.

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1 hour ago, Jkdubz808 said:

Predictions for Hurricane Ida making its way into the gulf.  Thats for Sunday at noon.

1328786750_Capture3.JPG.4bf9f7fbf83b3cc0ce52db413f38bc1a.JPG

Not saying it will but Ida has the potential to bomb out.  Depends on forward speed.  If it has a tight core and goes over the warm water eddy not too fast it could easily be a Cat 4-5.  Think about evac shelters filled with the unvaxed.,

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17 minutes ago, Fakenews said:

Not saying it will but Ida has the potential to bomb out.  Depends on forward speed.  If it has a tight core and goes over the warm water eddy not too fast it could easily be a Cat 4-5.  Think about evac shelters filled with the unvaxed.,

Yes.  Talking with an expert (no, not a Facebook one), Ida has a small but real percentage probability for explosive strengthening before landfall.  Not good for NOLA.

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20 minutes ago, P_Wop said:

Yes.  Talking with an expert (no, not a Facebook one), Ida has a small but real percentage probability for explosive strengthening before landfall.  Not good for NOLA.

Landfall is 16 year to the date of Katrina.  Hope it passes to the east.

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