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Ed posted a piece suggesting that the 2021 Olympics should be cancelled due to "high" covid case rates in Japan.

Japan has managed Covid so well that a small increase suddenly is creating an outsized response.

California only got below the per capita rate of Japan's spike last week but has long been considered as being "ready to open".  The CA spike was about 22 times higher (2200%) of the highest Japanese spike.

Is Covid really an issue in Japan for vaccinated Olympians or is something else at play here?

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Killing the Olympics would be the best thing ever to happen to sailing.  If it does get cancelled, it just might be such a financial disaster for the IOC and future cities just may sit out and they wo

We did not have vaccines for the 1918 pandemic which killed approximately 50 million people (about 3% of worlds population so about 230 million in  todays terms) .   Yes we are still here but thankful

Alot of people missing the point of internal transmission based on locals visiting venues and returning to regional centres.....it's this that will create the issue. Unless events take place in comple

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Japan is currently in one of the worst spikes it has seen as a country. Not sure if the 22 times is accurate, but I think the families of the 200,000+ death folks might still not consider this as "so well" that they can have a major sports event... I read pleas of medical doctors to not hold the olympics. 

I don't have the right answer, but I will say it is much less trivial ... 

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With only 12,000+ deaths in Japan so far, why would they want to open their border to a national health risk of massive proportion? They contained it so well compared to other countries that I would say as a nation “No thank you. We do not desire to become a host for another competition-for our lives.”

YMMV

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Last I saw was that fewer than 2% of Japanese have been vaccinated. That is very low for a developed country. Hospitals are full with Covid patients. On top of that, many Japanese think the games should be cancelled due to all the problems. It is just the tone deaf Olympics officials and a few politicians who want the games to go on.  

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Japan, a nation of 126 million +/- but only 2-4% vaccinated is suggesting keeping out 20,000 +/- athletes , coaches and officials who will be at a minimum 80% vaccinated and restricted to the bubble of Olympic Village and stadiums , with strict testing before and during the event.

We are talking about 0.003% .  4,000 un-vaccinated visitors compared to 121 million un-vaccinated hosts.

The greater risk is to the athletes from the Japanese , and they intend to isolate from the general population as far as possible to protect themselves.

I would be fine if the organizers raised the bar to 100% vaccination requirement, but not sure why Japanese should penalize the visiting athletes because they have fallen behind on vaccination.

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13 minutes ago, Rum Runner said:

Last I saw was that fewer than 2% of Japanese have been vaccinated. That is very low for a developed country. Hospitals are full with Covid patients. On top of that, many Japanese think the games should be cancelled due to all the problems. It is just the tone deaf Olympics officials and a few politicians who want the games to go on.  

Japan has the highest number of hospital bed per capita in the developed world....13 per 1000 ve average of 4.7.

HOWEVER, most of the hospitals are small private institutions and they are not set up to work in a coordinated manner during a pandemic. 

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There have been continual articles here in Australia that the polls and surveys in Japan state that 80% of Japanese residents don’t want the games toproceed.Low vaccination rates etc.You need to take the masses with you.This doesn’t appear to be the case here.

 

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Bubbles are a way to do it, but they only work if they are airtight. The Netherlands just had the Eurovision Song Festival (which is ridiculous in all ways possible). Teams from all over came to Rotterdam. All had to be tested several times. A couple of teams had members who tested positive while they were already in Rotterdam... So, how did they get infected while in their bubble? Who else did they infect on the way to the Netherlands and/or at the song festival? It would be wise to study this event closely to determine the possible risks and how to better mitigate them. 

One of the things that worries me is that even while the world has been mostly shut down each time a new COVID-19 variant appears within weeks it has spread all over the globe. And while I think we are turning the corner any of those new variants could find a way around the vaccines... The more the virus spreads, the "better" it gets at infecting us. Each time we gather, the virus is having a party! So this is not only about Japan (or any particular country). It is a global responsibility.

Only nations that completely isolated (such as a Australia and New Zealand) managed to fair well. So, I can definitely see why the Japanese would want to keep visitors out. Yes, everyone wants things to open again, but new infections can pose a major setback. And with the low vaccinations (why was this not a priority?) the risk for Japan (and the world) is real. 

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Ed's argument seems to be that because:

1. A US Government body has issued a travel advisory warning Americans against travelling to Japan...

2. The US Olympic sailing team isn't doing too well...

... the IOC should cancel the Olympics.

Eh? Really?

There are lots of good arguments for and against allowing the Games to go ahead, but don't the other 200 or so countries get a say?

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1 hour ago, AnotherSailor said:

Bubbles are a way to do it, but they only work if they are airtight. The Netherlands just had the Eurovision Song Festival (which is ridiculous in all ways possible). Teams from all over came to Rotterdam. All had to be tested several times. A couple of teams had members who tested positive while they were already in Rotterdam... So, how did they get infected while in their bubble? Who else did they infect on the way to the Netherlands and/or at the song festival? It would be wise to study this event closely to determine the possible risks and how to better mitigate them. 

One of the things that worries me is that even while the world has been mostly shut down each time a new COVID-19 variant appears within weeks it has spread all over the globe. And while I think we are turning the corner any of those new variants could find a way around the vaccines... The more the virus spreads, the "better" it gets at infecting us. Each time we gather, the virus is having a party! So this is not only about Japan (or any particular country). It is a global responsibility.

Only nations that completely isolated (such as a Australia and New Zealand) managed to fair well. So, I can definitely see why the Japanese would want to keep visitors out. Yes, everyone wants things to open again, but new infections can pose a major setback. And with the low vaccinations (why was this not a priority?) the risk for Japan (and the world) is real. 

I just think Japan could have a much bigger impact on curtailing Covid by rapid adoption of vaccine rather than banning 20,000 largely vaccinated athletes 

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13 hours ago, Sail4beer said:

With only 12,000+ deaths in Japan so far, why would they want to open their border to a national health risk of massive proportion? They contained it so well compared to other countries that I would say as a nation “No thank you. We do not desire to become a host for another competition-for our lives.”

YMMV

Australian 13 year old skateboarder goes to Cali for Olypic qualifacation. Passes all tests to get there & tests positive, now quarantined. Local transmision after visiting skate parks.

I'd be more worried about US than Japan.

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4 hours ago, Dave S said:

Ed's argument seems to be that because:

1. A US Government body has issued a travel advisory warning Americans against travelling to Japan...

2. The US Olympic sailing team isn't doing too well...

... the IOC should cancel the Olympics.

Eh? Really?

There are lots of good arguments for and against allowing the Games to go ahead, but don't the other 200 or so countries get a say?

How about the fact that the Olympics have become a fest where 14-year olds in sequins are the center of attention? That should give you a strong argument that it has become the pedophile games.

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Sailing is the summer olympics version of curling, so who really gives a shit.

The US team sucks because US sailings approach to Jr Sailing blows - so we end up with a team of petulant little rich kids and moneyless tagalongs.

2 strikes.

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Killing the Olympics would be the best thing ever to happen to sailing.  If it does get cancelled, it just might be such a financial disaster for the IOC and future cities just may sit out and they won't find cities to host it again. This will be fun to watch.

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4 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

I just think Japan could have a much bigger impact on curtailing Covid by rapid adoption of vaccine rather than banning 20,000 largely vaccinated athletes 

Yes, I wonder why vaccination has not been a priority. That having been said, the problem is not only Japan. There is an immense amount of travel leading up to the olympics

 

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57 minutes ago, Glenn McCarthy said:

Killing the Olympics would be the best thing ever to happen to sailing.  If it does get cancelled, it just might be such a financial disaster for the IOC and future cities just may sit out and they won't find cities to host it again. This will be fun to watch.

It would pull a lot of grassroots funding, coaching and learning opportunities out from the sport.

 I get that it's broken in the USA. but that doesn't mean it's broken everywhere. Maybe it would be better to fix it in the US, rather than just dumping on the event?

Cheers,

              W.

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1 hour ago, Rum Runner said:

How about the fact that the Olympics have become a fest where 14-year olds in sequins are the center of attention? That should give you a strong argument that it has become the pedophile games.

 Can you justify your claim that the above is a fact?  I would have said that the centre of attention was the athletics arena but if I'm wrong then I'm open to correction.

Cheers,

              W.

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54 minutes ago, WGWarburton said:

It would pull a lot of grassroots funding, coaching and learning opportunities out from the sport.

 I get that it's broken in the USA. but that doesn't mean it's broken everywhere. Maybe it would be better to fix it in the US, rather than just dumping on the event?

Cheers,

              W.

Ditching Olympic sailing will not have any beneficial effect on sailing in the US.

A large part of US sailing is nothing to do with the Olympics. The success or lack of success of sailing in the US is dependent on other factors.  The fact that a few US sailors have been to the Olympics and a few even have medals to prove it , is a good thing for the sport's image.

It does not cost us anything, all Olympic funding in the US comes from IOC funds handed out to US sailing and money raised from private sponsors and supporters. 

 

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2 hours ago, IPLore said:

Ditching Olympic sailing will not have any beneficial effect on sailing in the US.

A large part of US sailing is nothing to do with the Olympics. The success or lack of success of sailing in the US is dependent on other factors.  The fact that a few US sailors have been to the Olympics and a few even have medals to prove it , is a good thing for the sport's image.

It does not cost us anything, all Olympic funding in the US comes from IOC funds handed out to US sailing and money raised from private sponsors and supporters. 

 

Those of us who pay dues to US Ailing also have our $$$ going to the Olympic program. Paul Cayard does not work cheaply and he is a USS employee.

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Japan messed this up royally by insisting on doing their own testing of vaccines before using them, delaying the rollout by months, as if this disease is any different in Japan (remember the first spread there from a cruise ship). Anyway, it seems nuts to cancel the olympics when most of the visiting athletes and coaches will have been vaccinated. I for one would be very sad to see it cancelled.

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NYT gives 83% of Japanese against holding the Olympics there this year. Other articles give varying figures but all well above 2/3rds of the population against hosting the Olympics.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/world/asia/covid-japan-olympics-poll.html

 

Seems cut and dried that the Japanese as hosts should have the final say. That they would want to lose the chance to host the Olympics and the money/tourism which attends it should show how deeply-held and genuine their desire to not host is.

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8 minutes ago, Commercial Boater said:

NYT gives 83% of Japanese against holding the Olympics there this year. Other articles give varying figures but all well above 2/3rds of the population against hosting the Olympics.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/world/asia/covid-japan-olympics-poll.html

 

Seems cut and dried that the Japanese as hosts should have the final say. That they would want to lose the chance to host the Olympics and the money/tourism which attends it should show how deeply-held and genuine their desire to not host is.

It seems like the tourism benefit is shot now. With the US issuing its travel advisory I doubt many big companies will send groups to the games. Tour organizers will be equally wary. You may only have parents and coaches in the stands at the end of the day.  

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21 minutes ago, Rum Runner said:

It seems like the tourism benefit is shot now. With the US issuing its travel advisory I doubt many big companies will send groups to the games. Tour organizers will be equally wary. You may only have parents and coaches in the stands at the end of the day.  

The decision to ban overseas visitors was taken just over 2 months ago. That has been off the table for a while.

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34 minutes ago, Commercial Boater said:

NYT gives 83% of Japanese against holding the Olympics there this year. Other articles give varying figures but all well above 2/3rds of the population against hosting the Olympics.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/world/asia/covid-japan-olympics-poll.html

 

Seems cut and dried that the Japanese as hosts should have the final say. That they would want to lose the chance to host the Olympics and the money/tourism which attends it should show how deeply-held and genuine their desire to not host is.

Contractually speaking, the IOC has the final say.  It was the IOC who decided to postpone for a year.  The japanese hosts initially disagreed but came round to that decision.

The host is the City of Tokyo and the Japanese Olympic Committee. See contract here : https://gtimg.tokyo2020.org/image/upload/production/rtd40rja1u5m4p7oifej.pdf

The JOC is equivalent to USOC, and is responsible for coordinating the Japanese teams and sports federations. 

The calls to postpone the Olympics are being pointed at the central Government at prime minister who is trying to deflect then to IOC and Tokyo. Ultimately the PM, Suga can make immigration etc impossible for the games to proceed but of course he would rather an such announcement comes from IOC.

This would be the fourth time in history that the games are cancelled and two of those four times , Tokyo is the host city.  Lightening does strike twice.   This would be the first time the Olympics are cancelled outside a world war.

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25 minutes ago, armchairadmiral said:

World championships are where it's at . Any competitor can have a shot. No one gets excluded by a selection process by non sailing officialdom..%5ring circus has run its race !

And yet an OLympic medal in the cabinet shines brighter than a world championship trophy.  I agree with you that the world championship can include tougher competition. ITs the mystique, the training and rarity (once every 4 years) that make it so alluring for the athletes.

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There is only one reason athletes want to go to the Olympics anyway,

An Olympic tradition

And at the 2016 Games in Rio de Janeiro, a record 450,000 condoms were distributed — enough for each participating athlete to have 42 condoms.

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yawn .... if the Japanese as a whole don't want the games, then why should they be pressured into having them by the IOC or anyone else? 

perhaps they have more respect for the lives and safety of their own people than some others do...  I dont give a shit one way or the other. 

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On 5/25/2021 at 1:10 PM, dtoc said:

 

Is Covid really an issue in Japan for vaccinated Olympians or is something else at play here?

As a former resident of Japan, I am guessing that the Japanese propensity for defaulting to inpatient care as a precaution does have an effect on Covid-19 filling up the hospital beds. Thus, it is an issue because athletes who do get sick or injured may end up being triaged in the parking lot-which would hardly meet the standards of say...NBA players. They aren't going to boot a local out of a hospital bed because someone thinks their knees are worth more than other peoples knees. It is a fact that even during normal times ambulances in Japan sometimes have to shop around patients to several ERs before they find one with a bed. In the end, the Japanese health care system is what you get in Japan for better or worse. 

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5 minutes ago, Cristoforo said:

Tens of thousands of people coming from every corner of the world to a crowded country struggling to contain a highly contagious and deadly virus.

Then going back home to  every corner of the world. Could you draw up a plan to better spread a virus around the globe? I think not. 

For the sake of playing games? What could possibly go wrong?

 

 

The 10,600 athletes and the additional coaches and officials are 80% vaccinated (and perhaps one could make it compulsory) so they will not be spreading the virus back home.

How Japan handles the community virus spread in their country will depend on them and their rate of vaccination.  They have 35.5 million un-vaccinated people in greater Tokyo. I think the greatest risk to the Japanese is not 4,000 residents in the Olympic village that they will not be allowed to get close to but the 35.5 million potential virus hosts sharing their streets and places of work. 

Takeda is one of the larger vaccine companies in the world with large GBU in Boston selling vaccines in the US.......time to vaccine their own population.

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50 minutes ago, Mid said:

apparently an overwhelming majority of the host countries own citizens want the games stopped .

Not new news.

The political pressure for the government to intervene will be immense.  80+% is much greater than any one political party can poll. It goes across all political spectrum. It doesnt seem to matter how safe the IOC and JOC make the games. Even if the athletes were 100% vaccinated, I think the Japanese population is scared and at a peak of fear. The Olympics has become a symbol of that fear.

They avoided the worst of the early stages of the pandemic due to their cultural willingness to act as a community adopting masks and distancing but inevitably the various waves and subsequent variants have passed through, each wave bigger than the prior one.  Their numbers are still low vs rest of the world but they do not have mass vaccination program underway and until Japan is vaccinated they will remain susceptible.

It might not be logical to cancel games if the participants are vaccinated but fear is not logical and the Japanese are fearful of further variants arriving on just one athlete.

I score cancellation as a 60% probability.  They should have postponed longer than they did.   There was never any way the world was going to get vaccinated in just a year.

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1 minute ago, EYESAILOR said:

I score cancellation as a 60% probability.

lot lower , money doesn't talk , it swears .

 

2 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

They should have postponed longer than they did.   There was never any way the world was going to get vaccinated in just a year.

concur .

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5 minutes ago, Mid said:

lot lower , money doesn't talk , it swears .

 

concur .

I agree......and the money is huge.  Some of the TV revenue losses get absorbed by event cancellation insurance. Many of the attendance losses are already unavoidable . Overseas visitors are already banned and will need to be refunded. Local attendees will be likely be diminished.  Nevertheless cancellation will incur more losses. 

So if you are a Japanese politician, the most important driving force in your life is to get re-elected.   If the infection rate increases during the Olympics, you know that a candidate will run against you saying he/she would have cancelled.  If yo cancel, 80% of the voters will think you did the right thing....and nobody will ever know if the Olympics would have been safe but your reelection chances have not been damaged. 

Human nature is self preservation so I think there will be tendency for politcians to lean towards cancellation if the mood is the same in 3 weeks time.

The only hope for the Olympics is that in 3-4 weeks, the global pandemic should have significantly abated in the vaccinated regions. If the IOC can persuade public opinion that a vaccinated population of athletes is safe then there is hope....but its a long shot.  

This would be different if Japan was making progress on vaccination but they will still be well behind in July.

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On 5/25/2021 at 1:10 PM, dtoc said:

Ed posted a piece suggesting that the 2021 Olympics should be cancelled due to "high" covid case rates in Japan.

Japan has managed Covid so well that a small increase suddenly is creating an outsized response.

California only got below the per capita rate of Japan's spike last week but has long been considered as being "ready to open".  The CA spike was about 22 times higher (2200%) of the highest Japanese spike.

Is Covid really an issue in Japan for vaccinated Olympians or is something else at play here?

 

On 5/25/2021 at 1:19 PM, Editor said:

very well could be. let's hope you are correct.

 

On 5/25/2021 at 1:43 PM, Sail4beer said:

With only 12,000+ deaths in Japan so far, why would they want to open their border to a national health risk of massive proportion? They contained it so well compared to other countries that I would say as a nation “No thank you. We do not desire to become a host for another competition-for our lives.”

YMMV

He's right. Only 12k deaths out 126 million. But, they take care of their elderly.

Makes the US look 3rd world.

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12 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

 

The political pressure for the government to intervene will be immense.  80+% is much greater than any one political party can poll. It goes across all political spectrum. It doesnt seem to matter how safe the IOC and JOC make the games. Even if the athletes were 100% vaccinated, I think the Japanese population is scared and at a peak of fear. The Olympics has become a symbol of that fear.

There are so many safe LDP seats and useless opposition parties that no; the LDP don't necessarily have to concern themselves with public sentiment. Just look at how Abe spent his political capital on Article 9 revision, an issue that maybe three percent of the population actually cares about. The latest conjecture from the Japan Doctors Union is that new made in Japan vaccine resistant virus variants could spread all over the world from the games. 

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Latest news is that one of the heads of the largest doctors associations in Japan says the games should be cancelled because of the risk to Japanese from bringing in that many athletes, coaches, journalists and officials. 

https://www.cbssports.com/olympics/news/2021-olympics-head-of-japan-doctors-union-says-games-may-produce-new-covid-19-strain/

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"IOC tries to reassure Olympic athletes over virus liability waiver - Japan Today" https://japantoday.com/category/tokyo-2020-olympics/ioc-tries-to-reassure-olympic-athletes-over-virus-waiver

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At the moment, over half a million new infections of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are happening daily, and over 10,000 deaths.

The world is not ready for a mega event like the Olympics.

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There is a cost Japan will be paying in lives. Sure, within the bubble of the Olympic events the PR machines will be telling us how safe things are, how nobody is dying etc, but behind the scenes, with over 90% of the population unvaccinated, Japanese people working to support the games will be compromised. That includes service staff, people in the food industry and so forth, who will be routinely taking risks to their health to ensure the Olympics goes ahead.

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I'm surprised NBA teams and so on are not actively trying to discourage their players from participating. At least the sailors will be in their own bubble in Kamakura. 

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6 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

"IOC tries to reassure Olympic athletes over virus liability waiver - Japan Today" https://japantoday.com/category/tokyo-2020-olympics/ioc-tries-to-reassure-olympic-athletes-over-virus-waiver

---

At the moment, over half a million new infections of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are happening daily, and over 10,000 deaths.

The world is not ready for a mega event like the Olympics.

---

There is a cost Japan will be paying in lives. Sure, within the bubble of the Olympic events the PR machines will be telling us how safe things are, how nobody is dying etc, but behind the scenes, with over 90% of the population unvaccinated, Japanese people working to support the games will be compromised. That includes service staff, people in the food industry and so forth, who will be routinely taking risks to their health to ensure the Olympics goes ahead.

It all sounds so strange from here.  Here we are Approaching 60% vaccinated .....+ resistance from those already sick......terrible terrible tragedy but it really feels like we are finally thru the worst.   There is real sense of optimism in our local community....cautious optimism but optimism. Walk in vaccines are freely available at our local Walgreens. Lock downs ending. Yacht Club open. Masks no longer compulsory this Monday but most will continue to wear in public stores etc.  Just feels like we are emerging.   I feel so bad for Japan. They did such a great job initially and then fell behind on the vaccine push.   
The US system of independent states and varying quality of leadership cost us vs Japan when pandemic arrived but when it comes to innovation and rolling something out, all of our entrepreneurial  flaws manifest themselves in speed and effectiveness.   
History will be amazed that we went from research and discovery to a vaccinated population in 18 months.  It is truly incredible.   
 

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By the numbers Japan is still doing very well.

Cases declined by a lot this week and cases per capita /deaths per capita last week were extremely low on global basis.

 

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46 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

By the numbers Japan is still doing very well.

That is a perspective from the US where the pandemic still rages. (Yes, US vaccine rates are around 60% and are likely to be peaking.) Internationally, the US is still doing poorly. (I am very aware of the rhetoric and misinformation on the US).

From Japan's perspective, while daily infections have peaked, overall active infections and deaths are increasing at an alarming rate.

What alarms the Japanese people is the probability of another wave caused by increased activity because of the Olympics. 

Screenshot_20210529-124613.png

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On 5/27/2021 at 9:44 AM, IPLore said:

 

The 10,600 athletes and the additional coaches and officials are 80% vaccinated (and perhaps one could make it compulsory) so they will not be spreading the virus back home.

 

From what I have read, being vaccinated does not stop a person from contracting Covid, nor from spreading it.  It merely ameliorates the intensity of the disease.  If that is correct (and I've seen it from a number of sources), the statement above is not necessarily correct.

 

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1 hour ago, Recidivist said:

From what I have read, being vaccinated does not stop a person from contracting Covid, nor from spreading it.  It merely ameliorates the intensity of the disease.  If that is correct (and I've seen it from a number of sources), the statement above is not necessarily correct.

Yep.

https://theconversation.com/can-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19-still-spread-the-coronavirus-161166

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12 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

That is a perspective from the US where the pandemic still rages. (Yes, US vaccine rates are around 60% and are likely to be peaking.) Internationally, the US is still doing poorly. (I am very aware of the rhetoric and misinformation on the US).

From Japan's perspective, while daily infections have peaked, overall active infections and deaths are increasing at an alarming rate.

What alarms the Japanese people is the probability of another wave caused by increased activity because of the Olympics. 

Screenshot_20210529-124613.png

That is a cumulative statistic Bruce.

What will be important is rate of change of cases (in absolute terms and per capita).  The last trailing 7 days cases in Japan are down 22% on the prior 7 days .   That is the good news and Japan on  a global basis has not had a high incidence of CV19.  However this might just be because of tightened lock downs.  A nation cannot forever be locked down, so until Japan gets vaccinated they will face further waves. 

 I tend to agree that Japan worrying about the Olympics is distracting their concern from the main issue that they should be concerned about.  

INHO, no nation has dealt with CV19 perfectly.   The best course would have been stringent social distancing, masks , controlled lock downs and contact tracing until vaccines arrive.    Some countries (Japan) did well on the former but are behind on vaccines. Some countries were weak on stage 1 but have been much faster on adoption of vaccines (UK and USA).

There is lots of misinformation but also even with information I think ttere is simple uncertainty.

 

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11 minutes ago, IPLore said:

INHO, no nation has dealt with CV19 perfectly.   The best course would have been stringent social distancing, masks , controlled lock downs and contact tracing until vaccines arrive.    Some countries (Japan) did well on the former but are behind on vaccines. Some countries were weak on stage 1 but have been much faster on adoption of vaccines (UK and USA).

New Zealand has done very well on the former and slow with the vaccines, countries which have performed poorly on the former have all done well on the vaccines.  They have chosen to go early with the vaccines out of desperation as the vaccines were their last hope.  In New Zealand we have been free of community transmission for most of the year so we can choose the vaccine that seems to be best suited to our needs.  We invested in about five vaccines but so we have had time to get it right, the whole country is getting the pfiver vaccine free, the economy is good with 4% unemployment, and we seem to have spent less time on lock downs than any other country.

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13 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

New Zealand has done very well on the former and slow with the vaccines, countries which have performed poorly on the former have all done well on the vaccines.  They have chosen to go early with the vaccines out of desperation as the vaccines were their last hope.  In New Zealand we have been free of community transmission for most of the year so we can choose the vaccine that seems to be best suited to our needs.  We invested in about five vaccines but so we have had time to get it right, the whole country is getting the pfiver vaccine free, the economy is good with 4% unemployment, and we seem to have spent less time on lock downs than any other country.

Yes. NZ has done an amazing job.  If the Pfizer vaccine can be administered promptly then you will be the success story of the great pandemic.  You started with the advantage of being an island nation but even so that advantage could have been short lived.

During that time you also managed to host the Americas Cup.( I am not sure how many sailors and support staff accompanied each team. If it came to 400 or more, that would be the same impact as the Olympics on Japan. I suspect it is smaller so the comparison is probably not valid. )

You are right about the decision to go early due to situation. It was certainly true in the UK which went all out with a single dose priority with AZ vaccine when many questions remained unanswered about the vaccine and about single dose priority.     To be fair to the US, the strategy had always been to wait for sustentative results from trials but to manufacture the vaccines anyway.  

The challenge for NZ rural communities is going to be cold storage chain for pfizer.....but the results have been superb

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1 hour ago, IPLore said:

Yes. NZ has done an amazing job.  If the Pfizer vaccine can be administered promptly then you will be the success story of the great pandemic.  You started with the advantage of being an island nation but even so that advantage could have been short lived.

During that time you also managed to host the Americas Cup.( I am not sure how many sailors and support staff accompanied each team. If it came to 400 or more, that would be the same impact as the Olympics on Japan. I suspect it is smaller so the comparison is probably not valid. )

You are right about the decision to go early due to situation. It was certainly true in the UK which went all out with a single dose priority with AZ vaccine when many questions remained unanswered about the vaccine and about single dose priority.     To be fair to the US, the strategy had always been to wait for sustentative results from trials but to manufacture the vaccines anyway.  

The challenge for NZ rural communities is going to be cold storage chain for pfizer.....but the results have been superb

I believe that the UK team had more than 100 personnel and the others three challengers about the same.  All entrants to New Zealand were required to go into managed isolation for 14 days, no virus was brought into the country by the teams.

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2 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

I believe that the UK team had more than 100 personnel and the others three challengers about the same.  All entrants to New Zealand were required to go into managed isolation for 14 days, no virus was brought into the country by the teams.

So if New Zealand co do this with 300 people in the days prior to vaccines being available, why cannot Japan, (a country with 26x the population of NZ) do this with 10,000 Olympic athletes.  The Olympic village is effectively an island/peninsula which would facilitate a 14 day quarantine.  Layer on top of that current 80% vaccination rate for the athletes, or even raise that to a 100% requirement.

image.jpeg.ae031d3b9775a7175329dc68313a1e57.jpeg

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2 hours ago, IPLore said:

NZ has done an amazing job. 

One's perspective is relative.

From the inside of NZ looking out, NZ is my normal. NZ was slow to adopt masks. NZ did have a full lockdown, and if that is the standard by which other countries are judged, the only regions to come close in my view were China (Wuhan in particular), Western Australia, Spain and a few others.

Examples of not having a 'full lockdown' include Victoria (Australia) where a 'lockdown' includes private groups limited to five, and public groups limited to thirty. From my perspective, that is not a proper lockdown - and as NZ now shares open borders with Australia it is my risk here in NZ.

There is another outbreak right now in Melbourne, and people who have been there in the last 14 days are moving freely in NZ without being tested. As of yesterday, the NZ government was tracking down about 500 people who had flown in from Melbourne, who had yet to be tested. The risks we are taking are in my view unacceptable.

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What NZ eventually got right was track and trace, with genomic testing on every case becoming a practical tool to establish lineage, to enable confidence that management of an outbreak is effective.

"How Covid-19 genome sequencing maps the spread of the virus | RNZ" https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018774366/how-covid-19-genome-sequencing-maps-the-spread-of-the-virus

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Japan is in a terrible situation with a horrific level of deaths. 

Countries like the US are worse, yet are opening up.

The consequence of 'living with the SARS-CoV-2 virus' is illness and death. 

The majority of deaths in my view are avoidable.

Misinformation includes nonsense that for some areas a more effective approach like NZ's is not possible. Hawaii is a great example where the NZ approach was (and is) possible, but simply not followed.

Strick lockdowns are not possible in countries like Peru where the number of refrigerators are low it means that to get fresh food one needs to go to market ever few days. 

"Coronavirus Hits Peru Hard Despite Strict Lockdown - WSJ" https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-hits-peru-hard-despite-strict-lockdown-11592146800

I have become aware of inept management by reading 'lockdown' policies where many have too many exceptions to be effective. Talking directly people who are there has given me the necessary perspectives to confirm forming judgment that the management has been inept.

Quote

The challenge for NZ rural communities is going to be cold storage chain for pfizer.....but the results have been superb

This is not much of a challenge. NZ has got the necessary infrastructure which includes the ability to keep the vaccine cool for the correct amount of time. 

NZ plans to have vaccinated 1.7 million by the end of July BEFORE the main rollout begins. (NZ's population is approximately 5 million).

I am in a 'remote area', yet within an easy days drive from NZ's largest city, most 'remote areas' are within a days drive of our five largest cities. 

Because the Pfizer vaccine can be refrigerated for 31 days (2 to 8 degrees Celsius), there is no problem to overcome for rural areas.

"Covid 19 coronavirus: Pfizer vaccine can be stored at refrigerated temperatures for up to 31 days - NZ Herald" https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-can-be-stored-at-refrigerated-temperatures-for-up-to-31-days/BRAGE6552A5LA5BLEZMHNQADAM/

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There are several small Pacific nations why rely on NZ.

"NZ Government to accept liability for vaccines in Pacific" https://www.newsroom.co.nz/nz-liable-for-pacific-vaccines?amp=1

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It is about perspective.

NZ is my normal.

I make it so by demanding my leaders act properly, are pulled up for any shortcomings, and do my bit by complying with government requests. 

While it turns out that my normal is considered to be 'world leading', but frankly, that doesn't prevent me from identifying shortcomings and pushing hard to make further improvements.

---

Everywhere is affected by misinformation.

The key issue will be the extent that anti vaccine misinformation is effective. In some areas, it may even prevent herd immunity from being reached.

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28 minutes ago, IPLore said:

So if New Zealand co do this with 300 people in the days prior to vaccines being available, why cannot Japan, (a country with 26x the population of NZ) do this with 10,000 Olympic athletes.  The Olympic village is effectively an island/peninsula which would facilitate a 14 day quarantine.  Layer on top of that current 80% vaccination rate for the athletes, or even raise that to a 100% requirement.

image.jpeg.ae031d3b9775a7175329dc68313a1e57.jpeg

Because Japan has the SARS-CoV-2 virus active in the community, the circumstances are very different to NZ's.

The Tokyo Olympics mean that those local Japanese working to provide goods and services to the Olympics cannot stay home.

Effective lockdown means essential activity only. Japanese justifiably view the Olympics as not essential.

If the Olympics go ahead, there will be increased spread of the virus in Japan.

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The Olympic village is a ghost town on the water at the moment.

The Tokyo 2020 Olympics Athletes Village in Tokyo.

After the Olympics are complete, the athlete accommodation will be converted to condos and apartments. 

Is this not a problem that human ingenuity can solve with the tools that we have now versus a year ago?  Could the organizers require all athletes to arrive 14 days ahead of time with a vaccination certificate and  take test on arrival, and test again in 14 days.   + Each athlete has a tracing app on their phone in case an athlete/coach tests positive with a breakthrough infection. 

 

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It's not just Japanese locals at risk, given the number of foreign workers in Japan these days. It's not like the partying in Roppongi is going to stop. All the most irresponsible people in Japan are already in Roppongi having a good time, the Olympics are not going to slow that scene down. 

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5 minutes ago, IPLore said:

 

Is this not a problem that human ingenuity can solve with the tools that we have now versus a year ago?  Could the organizers require all athletes to arrive 14 days ahead of time with a vaccination certificate and  take test on arrival, and test again in 14 days.   + Each athlete has a tracing app on their phone in case an athlete/coach tests positive with a breakthrough infection. 

 

The American optimism shines through. Everything can be solved with human ingenuity  ;)    Elon will establish a community on Mars and Covid will be defeated by biotech .

Sadly some parts of the natural world will resist even American ingenuity.  The problem for Japan is not the athletes.  The athletes would probably be the safest population in Japan.  It is the non-vaccinated japanese population gathering to watch and run the Olympics where community spread might pick up.    Jaan has a very low infection rate at the moment....but even a slight increase has created a large sense of fear. 

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20 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

Jaan has a very low infection rate at the moment....but even a slight increase has created a large sense of fear. 

Japan has an infection rate of just indert 6%. It is not "very low". I'd say very low is less than 1%.

The US had the same level of infection (6%) about Dec 2020.

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23 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

 

 

Japan is in a terrible situation with a horrific level of deaths.

 

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Everywhere is affected by misinformation.

 

Every Covid death is of course a sadness and a tragedy.

However, relative to the rest of the world Japan has not experienced the same horrific death levels of Europe or the USA.  In the last 7 days, Japan lost 668 citizens to Covid.  This is a death rate of 5 per million.  Brazil is in a terrible situation, in the last 5 days their death rate per million was 59.   European death rates (much improved from a month ago) are running at 2 -3X Japan. Even the US where the infections and death rates are declining, we are still running at close to 4,000 per week.....a death rate at 11 per million , close to double that of japan.  Back in January we (the USA) were losing 4,000 people a day due to Covid....so 4,000 a week is progress......but the goal is elimination in the USA. 

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19 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

Japan has an infection rate of just indert 6%. It is not "very low". I'd say very low is less than 1%.

The US had the same level of infection (6%) in 2020.

I dont know what your numerator and denominator are....or what period you are measuring.

Can I suggest common ground as   :        # of cases over trailing 7 days/ population.   Just to track whether infections are climbing , falling and how to compare with RoW.       Data is unfortunately very inconsistent.

 

I agree "very low" was a poor choice of words.   I meant to push back a bit on the media narrative surrounding Japan's current covid levels.   

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12 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

Every Covid death is of course a sadness and a tragedy.

However, relative to the rest of the world Japan has not experienced the same horrific death levels of Europe or the USA.  In the last 7 days, Japan lost 668 citizens to Covid.  This is a death rate of 5 per million.  Brazil is in a terrible situation, in the last 5 days their death rate per million was 59.   European death rates (much improved from a month ago) are running at 2 -3X Japan. Even the US where the infections and death rates are declining, we are still running at close to 4,000 per week.....a death rate at 11 per million , close to double that of japan.  Back in January we (the USA) were losing 4,000 people a day due to Covid....so 4,000 a week is progress......but the goal is elimination in the USA. 

Using the same standards, there are some 80 nations and territories that have a lower infection rate than Japan, and 90 with a lower death rate.

Also, I clearly framed my perspectives as being relative to my normal, New Zealand. You have quoted me out of context.

From my perspective, the number of deaths in Japan is horrific. As you point out, it is worse in EU and the US.

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In early 2020, people wanting to minimize the impacts of the pandemic compared the number of fatalities due to Covid-19 to motor vehicle fatalities. That practice stopped when inconveniently, the Covid-19 deaths rose higher than motor vehicle fatalities.

It is my further contention that the number of motor vehicle fatalities is horrific.

For most nations, the pandemic is worse.

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There will need to be radical changes to the management of the pandemic in the US to achieve the elimination you say is the goal.

---

"Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | The Economist" https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

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40 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

I dont know what your numerator and denominator are....or what period you are measuring.

The infection rate. The number of positive tests as a proportion of the total number of tests.

Two days ago the infection rate had fallen in the Tokyo metro area to 5.4%. It peaked earlier in May around 10%. The rate goes up and down, and is one of the best early indicator of what's happening.

This begs the question, what were referring to when earlier you were talking about the infection rate?

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1 minute ago, Bruce Hudson said:

Using the same standards, there are some 80 nations and territories that have a lower infection rate than Japan, and 90 with a lower death rate.

Also, I clearly framed my perspectives as being relative to my normal, New Zealand. You have quoted me out of context.

From my perspective, the number of deaths in Japan is horrific. As you point out, it is worse in EU and the US.

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In early 2020, people wanting to minimize the impacts of the pandemic compared the number of fatalities due to Covid-19 to motor vehicle fatalities. That practice stopped when inconveniently, the Covid-19 deaths rose higher than motor vehicle fatalities.

It is my further contention that the number of motor vehicle fatalities is horrific.

For most nations, the pandemic is worse.

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There will need to be radical changes to the management of the pandemic in the US to achieve the elimination you say is the goal.

---

"Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries | The Economist" https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Okay I understand.  Yes you did say that NZ was your normal.  It is a benchmark that very few countries will come close to 

The only way we can manage the pandemic effectively in the US will be through vaccination.  The virus is established in our population.  There are many variables such as whether vaccine provides sterilizing immunity or just disease immunity, the % of population immunized, the nature of the virus and whether variants will be sufficiently narrow that they respond to vaccines etc etc.......but Im guessing that CV19 remains endemic for at least the next 3 years and probably longer.   Even if we reduce the incidence in USA and similar nations with effective vaccination programs, it will remain active in many pockets around the world. I suspect there will still be CV19 in 2024

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28 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

The infection rate. The number of positive tests as a proportion of the total number of tests.

Two days ago the infection rate had fallen in the Tokyo metro area to 5.4%. It peaked earlier in May around 10%. The rate goes up and down, and is one of the best early indicator of what's happening.

This begs the question, what were referring to when earlier you were talking about the infection rate?

Okay Im familiar with that metric.     It does jump around a lot.     It becomes self reinforcing as a bias during CV19 waves.  At the hospital where affiliated during the first wave we were so overwhelmed that we would only test patients with symptoms, so of course that biased the infection rate.  The vast majority of people without symptoms in CT do not come in for a test unless mandated by employment or travel needs. 

All of these metrics are hard to compare between regions because some regions test more than others. I have been looking at diagnosed cases per capita. I admit that might be affected by people with no symptoms or mild symptoms who do not get tested.  But it gives a broad idea of how Jaoan is doing  vs similar developed nations with widely available testing.

While nothing like as good as NZ, Japan avoided the high levels of the 1st and 2nd waves that afflicted USA, Europe and South America..India etc.

China of course remains incredibly untouched by a virus that originated in China...unbelievable absence of 2nd wave.  Emphasis on unbelievable.  One death i n last 8 months.   550 million people vaccinated.It is still hard to believe that their total death toll was only 4,500.  We lost that many n one day at its peak.

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

75% of the cases and 40% of the deaths are in one country- India.  Even there the rate of cases are dropping rapidly.

India has closer to 40% of new daily recorded cases in the world, and yes, the measures taken in India are proving some much needed relief.

India has about 24% of the world's population, and about 14% of the active infections recorded (about 2 million).

As a rough comparison, the US has about 4% of the world's population, and about 33% of the world's active infections recorded (about 5 million).

The US is still in a dire situation.

Vaccines are just one of several tools available to reduce the active infections, though as pointed out earlier, vaccinated people can still get the virus and spread it.

Because the US was and is unwilling/unable to put in place effective measures, makes it particularly vulnerable to vaccine resistant mutations - and the next pandemic.

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43 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

The US is still in a dire situation.

You have made more than one reference to the USA being in a "dire situation still" however the metrics are showing rapid declines.  Hardly dire.

But back to the thread Topic - the Olympics.

If 80% or more of the incoming Olympic contingent are vaccinated and are then isolated and the people that are looking after them are vaccinated then does it really make any difference to Japan's pandemic risk profile?

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What Japanese doctors are suggesting is that Tokyo as a human petri dish could create a vaccine resistant virus. Therefore, the problem is that a vaccinated asymptomatic carrier could start a whole new wave. 

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

You have made more than one reference to the USA being in a "dire situation still" however the metrics are showing rapid declines.  Hardly dire.

My post, which you quoted out of context, above gave two reasons why. There are still 5 million active cases in the US, a full 1/3 of recorded active cases in the world. Additionally, because of the reliance on the vaccine, the US is suceptable to new variants and new pandemics.

You never did acknowledge your error stating that 75% of cases were in India. The daily number of new cases recorded is less than 40%, actually closer to 30%,and active cases about 14%.

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Yes, let's get back to the Olympics.

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There is a tendency to put money ahead of lives. 

The global pandemic is still global.

The Olympic movement is asking that the event prioritizes resources which in my view should be prioritized for saving lives.

We see proponents of such a disgusting line of thought again and again minimize how bad the pandemic is by providing false and/or misleading information, and sadly, examples can be viewed here in this thread.

Countries (and individuals) are acting as if the pandemic is not extremely serious, which undermine efforts to implement solutions, which all but guarantees that more lives are unnecessarily lost.

Japan should not be put in a situation of having to cancel the Olympics to save lives.

The various sports federations should be insisting that the IOC cancel, and the IOC should willingly cancel.

I'm fast reaching the conclusion that to do otherwise, is just not sporting.

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

If 80% or more of the incoming Olympic contingent are vaccinated and are then isolated and the people that are looking after them are vaccinated then does it really make any difference to Japan's pandemic risk profile?

Yes. And the reasons are already explained above:

4 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

It is the non-vaccinated japanese population gathering to watch and run the Olympics where community spread might pick up.

In addition resources that go towards fighting the pandemic in Japan have been and will be diverted to the Olympics.

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Fuck Off You Fucking Selfish Fucking Fucks. There is no reason for the people of Japan to assume all the risk for your jerk-off fest for the enrichment of the IOC delegates mistresses.

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53 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

You never did acknowledge your error stating that 75% of cases were in India. The daily number of new cases recorded is less than 40%, actually closer to 30%,and active cases about 14%.

Ok my error but you are also wrong.  At the peak if the India 2nd wave the case rate per day was 50% and yes it is now 30%.

53 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

The Olympic movement is asking that the event prioritizes resources which in my view should be prioritized for saving lives.

We see proponents of such a disgusting line of thought again and again minimize how bad the pandemic is by providing false and/or misleading information, and sadly, examples can be viewed here in this thread.

Countries (and individuals) are acting as if the pandemic is not extremely serious, which undermine efforts to implement solutions, which all but guarantees that more lives are unnecessarily lost.

Japan should not be put in a situation of having to cancel the Olympics to save lives.

But you are not evaluating risk instead promoting fear.

What is the additional risk to Japan of allowing 10,000 people of whom over 80% have been vaccinated into isolation into Japan?

It won't raise the risk profile of of Japan at all.

Now it would be a different story if none of the 10,000 were vaccinated and they weren't isolated.

How many people unvaccinated are entering NZ and OZ on a daily basis currently?

If the herd of 10,000 that will have herd immunity and will be isolated is not acceptable to you then nothing will be in the future.

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The IOC can shove the Olympics down the Japanese people's throat, but they cannot force us to watch them.  A viewers boycott of the Olympics would show the IOC that their dictatorial ways are not acceptable.

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1 hour ago, spankoka said:

What Japanese doctors are suggesting is that Tokyo as a human petri dish could create a vaccine resistant virus. Therefore, the problem is that a vaccinated asymptomatic carrier could start a whole new wave. 

I doubt that the Olympics makes a variant more or less likely . Antigenic drift in the Corona Virus (mutations that create a variant) occurs during the copying process of a single strain of the virus.    Given the massive sample size of the CV19 pandemic, the rate of mutation  has been slow. The virus has not changed dramatically  and the vaccines companies are optimistic that existing mRNA vaccines will stay effective and can be tweaked.

An antigenic shift , where a virus changes abruptly due to the reassortment of different segments from the RNA of two different strains has been one of the challenges of influenza but unlike the flu virus which is 8 segments of RNA, the coronavirus is a single massive strand of RNA and thus highly improbable to get reassorted.    In other words, we cant "breed" the CV virus with cross pollination of different variants.

At the end of the day, the key will be effective vaccines.

As regards the Olympics. I cant help wonder if there is a way of making substantial changes that allow something reduced but safe.

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11 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

I doubt that the Olympics makes a variant more or less likely . Antigenic drift in the Corona Virus (mutations that create a variant) occurs during the copying process of a single strain of the virus.    Given the massive sample size of the CV19 pandemic, the rate of mutation  has been slow. The virus has not changed dramatically  and the vaccines companies are optimistic that existing mRNA vaccines will stay effective and can be tweaked.

An antigenic shift , where a virus changes abruptly due to the reassortment of different segments from the RNA of two different strains has been one of the challenges of influenza but unlike the flu virus which is 8 segments of RNA, the coronavirus is a single massive strand of RNA and thus highly improbable to get reassorted.    In other words, we cant "breed" the CV virus with cross pollination of different variants.

At the end of the day, the key will be effective vaccines.

As regards the Olympics. I cant help wonder if there is a way of making substantial changes that allow something reduced but safe.

You don't care it is not your life at risk. How many people would you KILL for an olympic medal?

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3 minutes ago, Frank White said:

10,000 athletes, plus how many journalists, coaches, officials, hangers on etc? At what number does it become too much? Some Reports have the number closer to 80,000  

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/may/20/organisers-of-tokyo-olympics-press-ahead-despite-covid-fears?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Same principle applies if 80%+ have been vaccinated.  Otherwise the world is going to remain in a state of irrational fear for decades.

Wasn't there a recent sporting event that had 75,000 spectators?  Most of whom wouldn't have been vaccinated.

 

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Ok my error but you are also wrong.  At the peak if the India 2nd wave the case rate per day was 50% and yes it is now 30%.

How was my statement incorrect? It is not negated by whatever the peak was.

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

But you are not evaluating risk instead promoting fear.

No, I'm not. 

I'm committed to the elimination of poor management that leads to the unnecessary loss of lives.

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

What is the additional risk to Japan of allowing 10,000 people of whom over 80% have been vaccinated into isolation into Japan?

The efficacy of vaccines peak at 95%. The athletes and support staff will need to interact directly and indirectly with custom officials, couriers and cleaners. Also those who supply food, bus drivers etc.

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

It won't raise the risk profile of of Japan at all.

You are not basing this on science, or on logic. Increased activity increases risk. The main way to eliminate the virus will be via isolation. (Maybe you don't realize that the vaccine doesn't prevent everyone from getting the virus).

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Now it would be a different story if none of the 10,000 were vaccinated and they weren't isolated.

How do they get to be isolated? By magic? Will the food be delivered by robots? Are farmers part of the isolated community? Or will the IOC provide food? 

If there is an outbreak in the Olympic village, there are no facilities for isolating those infected.

A new strain could emerge. Where is the backup plan?

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

How many people unvaccinated are entering NZ and OZ on a daily basis currently?

For NZ, outside of Australia, the number of people testing positive going into the NZ community was zero. Now the border is open between NZ and Australia, who knows. The number of vaccinated people is not recorded - besides, it is more important that they are not infected with the virus - vaccinated or not. 

But the main point is that the Olympics are in Japan, not NZ or Oz.

1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

If the herd of 10,000 that will have herd immunity and will be isolated is not acceptable to you then nothing will be in the future.

And you have royally missed the point.

Risk still applies to the athletes, to support people and to the Japanese locals who make the event happen.

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35 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

The efficacy of vaccines peak at 95%. The athletes and support staff will need to interact directly and indirectly with custom officials, couriers and cleaners. Also those who supply food, bus drivers etc.

So reduce the risk by vaccinating custom officials and others who will have direct contact with athletes and support staff.  However that isn't necessary if 80%+ of athletes have been vaccinated.

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38 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

How do they get to be isolated? By magic? Will the food be delivered by robots? Are farmers part of the isolated community? Or will the IOC provide food? 

But that is the general flaw in lockdowns fullstop.  Essential services such as food production and supply need to continue.  How many farmers will be pitching up to the Olympic Stadium to drop of their bags of rice?  Surely it is safer if you are a delivery driver to drop supplies off at the Olympic Village where 80%+ of the people are vaccinated than it is to deliver in downtown Tokyo.

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43 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

If there is an outbreak in the Olympic village, there are no facilities for isolating those infected.

A new strain could emerge. Where is the backup plan?

Why would there be an "outbreak"?  A village full of vaccinated people who are the fittest on the planet!!!

A new strain could emerge anywhere but it is extremely unlikely to occur in the Olympic Village!  Stop promoting fear.

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45 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

For NZ, outside of Australia, the number of people testing positive going into the NZ community was zero. Now the border is open between NZ and Australia, who knows. The number of vaccinated people is not recorded - besides, it is more important that they are not infected with the virus - vaccinated or not. 

But the main point is that the Olympics are in Japan, not NZ or Oz.

You royally miss the point I was making.  10,000 people a month have gone through MIQ in New Zealand.  The majority of them WEREN'T vaccinated.  A similar amount has gone through the same process in Australia.

Nearly all the world's airlines are still flying passengers to and from Japan.  There were 130,000 flights domestic and international in and out of Narita alone in 2020.  

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It appears we do not have consensus on what defines having COVID managed well enough to have a large multi-national event.  Not that there is ever consensus for anything in this forum.:o

On 5/26/2021 at 8:45 AM, stealingisacrime said:

Sailing is the summer olympics version of curling, so who really gives a shit.

The US team sucks because US sailings approach to Jr Sailing blows - so we end up with a team of petulant little rich kids and moneyless tagalongs.

2 strikes.