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5 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

There is an age old tradition that is at risk of being stamped out. (Yeah, right, I think if attempted to be suppressed it will simply go more underground - it partly is anyway).

Olympic copulation.

 

Are you suggesting STD testing and passports as well?

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Killing the Olympics would be the best thing ever to happen to sailing.  If it does get cancelled, it just might be such a financial disaster for the IOC and future cities just may sit out and they wo

We did not have vaccines for the 1918 pandemic which killed approximately 50 million people (about 3% of worlds population so about 230 million in  todays terms) .   Yes we are still here but thankful

Alot of people missing the point of internal transmission based on locals visiting venues and returning to regional centres.....it's this that will create the issue. Unless events take place in comple

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6 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

The plan is if anyone associated with the Olympics has a life threatening issue, they will be taken to the nearest hospital. There are designated clinics at each venue, and I am unclear how much the IOC plan of staffing this from overseas has progressed. (Again, the medical staff will need accommodation and transport, which will mean more interactions with locals).

But they are much at less risk of having Covid-19 than anyone in the Japanese NON-Olympic community with a "life threatening issue".  Therefore an Olympic athlete having a "life threatening issue" isn't going to alter the risk profile at all.  

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I hope the tests used are not PCR tests with high replication cycles and there isn't a zero threshold for a positive result to occur.  If there is then false positives will be rampant.

Do you know what type of testing will be done?  What the protocol is?

Is it the same as what is used generally in Japan?

They are doing 2 tests. The first test is the anitgen test on saliva. This will provide a result in under 2 hours at an onsite lab. If this tests positive then the subject has a confirmatory nasopharyngeal PCR test and will have those results in 3-5 hours.  The athlete handbook describes

 

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All athletes must carry a smartphone with a COfirm Contact App  (COCOA) downloaded and they have to download health info including pre-arrival tests.   Any positive tests and the Covid Liason Officer for each team and Tokyo's ICON will know who has been in contact with the positive test athlete .

They are building an infrastructure.

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18 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

They are doing 2 tests. The first test is the anitgen test on saliva. This will provide a result in under 2 hours at an onsite lab. If this tests positive then the subject has a confirmatory nasopharyngeal PCR test and will have those results in 3-5 hours.  The athlete handbook describes

It is inevitable that there will be false positives.

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

It is inevitable that there will be false positives.

That is true of the antigen test in a vaccinated population with low to no incidence .   If there is not an outbreak, I imagine a outlying positive from the antigen test will be taken seriously but no conclusion will be drawn until the  nasopharyngeal PCR test , which is highly specific and have a much lower likelihood of false positive.

But its a test and like all tests, there will be false positives and false negatives.

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5 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

no conclusion will be drawn until the  nasopharyngeal PCR test , which is highly specific and have a much lower likelihood of false positive.

Depends how many replication cycles are done.  Arguably with known vaccinated individuals they should be fewer than the great unwashed and/or a threshold set that is relative to the vital load.

Otherwise you will create unnecessary disruption for what could be a breakout asymptomatic infection.

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8 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

Pfizer has donated vaccine for all Olympic athletes and coaches , delivered to their home country.

Questionable ethics for fit 20 somethings to get a jab ahead of many much more vulnerable people around the world. Those jabs could be better used elsewhere. In the UK it has not been possible for the wealthy to jump the queue like that.

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9 minutes ago, Bored Stiff said:

@EYESAILOR stating Pfizer have donated jabs to all Olympians... who tend to be young and fit.

But the actual Olympians only number around 10,000.  Most have been vaccinated within their own countries.  My understanding is that the offer was for those countries that are struggling with their vaccination programmes.  Therefore the offer is actually helping because it isn't diverting vaccines.

In the overall scheme of things the number is very very small.

You are however eluding to another ethical question and that is should children be vaccinated given they are not vulnerable.

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3 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

But the actual Olympians only number around 10,000.  Most have been vaccinated within their own countries.  My understanding is that the offer was for those countries that are struggling with their vaccination programmes.  Therefore the offer is actually helping because it isn't diverting vaccines.

In the overall scheme of things the number is very very small.

You are however eluding to another ethical question and that is should children be vaccinated given they are not vulnerable.

If it's safe, children should imo be vaccinated , mostly to protect the immunocompromised population. 

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I’m not referring to children, as interesting as that question is.  The majority of 18-34 year olds across the globe have not had a single jab yet. Even the UK, which is ahead of most countries, has not started on 20 somethings. It would be hugely controversial if UK athletes were offered the jab before older bus drivers, shop assistants and teachers. 

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On 5/28/2021 at 9:33 PM, Timur said:

I know two 5 Ring Medal holding sailors.  Neither of them been on a boat in decades.  Guess the "thrill is gone" after being on a podium...or was it the relentless pursuit of it?

I know four. Three still sailing, the other was still sailing 20 years after his last Olympics but I'm not sure what he's doing now. 

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40 minutes ago, Bored Stiff said:

It would be hugely controversial if UK athletes were offered the jab before older bus drivers, shop assistants and teachers. 

Nope. It's a done deal that they will be (or already have been). No controversy that I've heard of.

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43 minutes ago, Bored Stiff said:

I’m not referring to children, as interesting as that question is.  The majority of 18-34 year olds across the globe have not had a single jab yet. Even the UK, which is ahead of most countries, has not started on 20 somethings. It would be hugely controversial if UK athletes were offered the jab before older bus drivers, shop assistants and teachers. 

You know all the British & Irish Lions team are being vaccinated ahead of the tour to SA as well, right? Already happening...

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

But the actual Olympians only number around 10,000.  Most have been vaccinated within their own countries.  My understanding is that the offer was for those countries that are struggling with their vaccination programmes.  Therefore the offer is actually helping because it isn't diverting vaccines.

In the overall scheme of things the number is very very small.

 

The offer extends to the coaches and officials as well.   Still a small number. But helpful at the margin for countries that did not order a successful vaccine in advance.  
 

if it makes the Olympics safer for Japans under vaccinated population then it seems to be a justifiable allocation. 

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3 hours ago, dogwatch said:

Nope. It's a done deal that they will be (or already have been). No controversy that I've heard of.

Can’t believe the teacher and transport unions etc haven’t complained bitterly if they are aware. 

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This article in New England Journal of Medicine is critical of current Olympic planning and has suggestions;

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2108567

Worth reading for those interested.

For example, I was not aware that athletes shared rooms in Olympic Village.  The NBA bubble was one athlete per room (+ spouse if spouse entered the bubble with the athlete).

I think one of my key concerns here is that vaccination is "encouraged" rather than mandatory.   I believe it should be required with a process for seeking an exemption.   The British 100m sprinter said he would prefer not to take a vaccine and thinks testing is enough, but will take a vaccine if required. It should be required.    There will be exemptions and then they can have an additional layer of rules and isolation in the village.

 

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4 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

This article in New England Journal of Medicine is critical of current Olympic planning and has suggestions;

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2108567

Worth reading for those interested.

For example, I was not aware that athletes shared rooms in Olympic Village.  The NBA bubble was one athlete per room (+ spouse if spouse entered the bubble with the athlete).

I think one of my key concerns here is that vaccination is "encouraged" rather than mandatory.   I believe it should be required with a process for seeking an exemption.   The British 100m sprinter said he would prefer not to take a vaccine and thinks testing is enough, but will take a vaccine if required. It should be required.    There will be exemptions and then they can have an additional layer of rules and isolation in the village

If you were in charge of the games, but had to proceed with the current plan or cancel, which would it be Eye?

(Note that this is hypothetical, new play books will be published in June with some incremental improvements to the plan. I doubt if vaccinations will become mandatory, and I expect we will still have three athletes per room.)

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8 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

if it makes the Olympics safer for Japans under vaccinated population then it seems to be a justifiable allocation. 

The greater risk is the other way in my opinion I.e. from the Japanese people to the Olympic Team.

If the Olympic Team test negative before departure, are vaccinated and continually tested then the chances are the source of infection will be from the Japanese not the other way.

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16 hours ago, Bored Stiff said:

Questionable ethics for fit 20 somethings to get a jab ahead of many much more vulnerable people around the world. Those jabs could be better used elsewhere. In the UK it has not been possible for the wealthy to jump the queue like that.

LOL-the fit 20 somethings with City and Chelsea seemed to get vaccinated without much public outcry. 

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Yeah, patronage is much more important to the success of the LDP than policy or ideology. It they had have held a referendum on the Tokyo Olympics back in the day, the no side probably would have won. This is why it doesn't really matter if even %99 of the people in Japan are against the Olympics proceeding. The left of center voters in Osaka and Tokyo are never ever going to vote LDP. In the regions, they will hold their noses and vote LDP election after election. 

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1 minute ago, Cristoforo said:

You silly people keep mentioning health and welfare. The only driving metric is money. The IOC has everyone by the nuts. See Bob Costas explain it on this weeks Bill Maher show. 

Ha. Only those who choose to put money ahead of health have allowed themselves to be 'got' by the nuts.

The logical conclusion of such philosophies is not to have universal healthcare, but thankfully, most countries who can afford to have it, do. (Except the US).

Bob Costas is unlikely to be critical of his employer (NBC) - though did mention that NBC had made 'a significant investment' in the Olympics. He wanted to postpone the games again until 2022. Costas has in my view a very US-Centric and money oriented view.

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7 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

If you were in charge of the games, but had to proceed with the current plan or cancel, which would it be Eye?

(Note that this is hypothetical, new play books will be published in June with some incremental improvements to the plan. I doubt if vaccinations will become mandatory, and I expect we will still have three athletes per room.)

If eye was in charge of the games eye would:

1. Create a bubble for athletes coaches and officials with an enlarged version of the NBA model.   Team members would be tested before departure and on arrival.  Then restricted to Village or other coopted hotels only for teams.   Teams would be accommodated together and only interact after 4 days and a negative test.

2. Daily testing

3. Vaccine would be mandatory with exceptions applied for.

4.. TV audience. Stadiums 1/3 rd capacity.

5. Journalists would be subject to controls designed by Tokyo.

 

Go ahead with games.

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1 minute ago, IPLore said:

If eye was in charge of the games eye would:

1. Create a bubble for athletes coaches and officials with an enlarged version of the NBA model.   Team members would be tested before departure and on arrival.  Then restricted to Village or other coopted hotels only for teams.   Teams would be accommodated together and only interact after 4 days and a negative test.

2. Daily testing

3. Vaccine would be mandatory with exceptions applied for.

4.. TV audience. Stadiums 1/3 rd capacity.

5. Journalists would be subject to controls designed by Tokyo.

 

Go ahead with games.

And if Eye couldn't make any changes? (As asked, would Eye go ahead if the plan went ahead as the plan currently is?)

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There is no way in this world that Tokyo police will micromanage a bunch of foreigners. They do not do anything about the foreign touts at clip joints as it is. 

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6 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

And if Eye couldn't make any changes? (As asked, would Eye go ahead if the plan went ahead as the plan currently is?)

Well best let Eye answer for her self ...I was using Eye to equal I.

 

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1 minute ago, IPLore said:

Well best let Eye answer for her self ...I was using Eye to equal I.

So to ask you directly: Would you go ahead with the current plan? (With no changes made).

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10 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

If you were in charge of the games, but had to proceed with the current plan or cancel, which would it be Eye?

(Note that this is hypothetical, new play books will be published in June with some incremental improvements to the plan. I doubt if vaccinations will become mandatory, and I expect we will still have three athletes per room.)

I'll get back to you on that.

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Source?!-they had a soccer game with vaccinated fans and players in Porto the other day and tens of millions of people all over the world watched it! Chelsea won....

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7 minutes ago, spankoka said:

Source?!-they had a soccer game with vaccinated fans and players in Porto the other day and tens of millions of people all over the world watched it! Chelsea won....

Duh... what evidence or reference that the players were vaccinated?

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5 hours ago, spankoka said:

There is no way in this world that Tokyo police will micromanage a bunch of foreigners. They do not do anything about the foreign touts at clip joints as it is. 

Yeah, The Yakuza take care of that :D

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55 minutes ago, spankoka said:

Source?!-they had a soccer game with vaccinated fans and players in Porto 

There was no requirement for fans to be vacinated and Premier League footballers are in the vaccine queue like everyone else.

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17 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

If you were in charge of the games, but had to proceed with the current plan or cancel, which would it be Eye?

(Note that this is hypothetical, new play books will be published in June with some incremental improvements to the plan. I doubt if vaccinations will become mandatory, and I expect we will still have three athletes per room.)

Based on IOC's current estimate that 80% of participants (athletes,coaches and officials) will be vaccinated , and based on playbook which indicates they are doing daily testing and athletes cannot come to the games without a negative test , and the semi-bubble conditions they describe, I would lean towards going ahead.

I would prefer that they tighten up the bubble regulations a bit. I would prefer that they got to 90-95% vaccinated and only allowed exceptions.

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5 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Wasn't there 175,000 at the Indy 500 this past weekend?

It was a very poor example of managing a sports event.  

They opened only allowing 40% of seats sold : Good

But they did not spread spectators out with separation, so the 40% all crowded together in the best locations : Bad

They mandated that masks must be worn :   But did not enforce. Masks were the exception : Bad

It was pretty unimpressive as an example of reopening a sports event as pandemic eases - not one that Japan should look to.  

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7 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

It was a very poor example of managing a sports event.  

They opened only allowing 40% of seats sold : Good

But they did not spread spectators out with separation, so the 40% all crowded together in the best locations : Bad

They mandated that masks must be worn :   But did not enforce. Masks were the exception : Bad

It was pretty unimpressive as an example of reopening a sports event as pandemic eases - not one that Japan should look to.  

Perhaps.  But how many were vaccinated?

What will the "surge in cases be"?

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15 hours ago, Metoxi said:

There was no requirement for fans to be vacinated and Premier League footballers are in the vaccine queue like everyone else.

So just to be clear - English, Welsh and Scottish footballers about to take part in Euro 2020/1 have not jumped the queue and are not vaccinated, but British Olympians will jump the queue to be vaccinated ahead of teachers, bus drivers and shop assistants of a similar age. No, nothing controversial there. 

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1 hour ago, Bored Stiff said:

So just to be clear - English, Welsh and Scottish footballers about to take part in Euro 2020/1 have not jumped the queue and are not vaccinated, but British Olympians will jump the queue to be vaccinated ahead of teachers, bus drivers and shop assistants of a similar age.

Are you referring to https://www.skysports.com/amp/olympics/news/15234/12313076/olympics-team-gb-and-paralympicsgb-athletes-plus-support-staff-will-be-vaccinated-before-departure-for-tokyo ?

Hardly queue jumping or controversial.

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4 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Perhaps.  But how many were vaccinated?

What will the "surge in cases be"?

We don't have the final count yet .......  ;)   

Brazil COVID-19 deaths exceed 4,000 daily as variant rages

Bad taste?

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21 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

We don't have the final count yet .......  ;)   

Brazil COVID-19 deaths exceed 4,000 daily as variant rages

Bad taste?

Extremely bad taste and alarmist.  It is like the reporting of the situation in India.  

If the reporting was balanced then wouldn't we be seeing some reports on the case numbers and deaths dropping in all regions of India?

278815501_coronavirus-data-explorer(4).thumb.png.767ebc057248ac468dbe9e35c7870f88.png

 

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It's interesting that any number of athletes are going that will not actually compete in the actual games. Australia opened their softball training camp in Ota with 23 players and are working down to a roster of 15. It seems like Suga is going to call an election sooner rather than later, so there is no turning back now. 

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12 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Extremely bad taste and alarmist.  It is like the reporting of the situation in India.  

If the reporting was balanced then wouldn't we be seeing some reports on the case numbers and deaths dropping in all regions of India?

 

 

It was humor regarding the Indy 500.

In answer to your question, we have no idea how many were vaccinated. All we know is that the track did not enforce its own guidelines regarding masks. 

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13 hours ago, spankoka said:

I find it hard to believe that no EPL players are among the 33 million Britons who have a least one jab. 

No matter "who" you are if you fall with within the eligibility rules you get the vaccine, why are you struggling to believe this?

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8 minutes ago, spankoka said:

Then it was very irresponsible of Portugal to let them in. 

The UK are putting Portugal back onto the amber travel list next Tuesday and some papers are connecting their current covid spike with the Champions League final, so you may well be correct.

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On 6/3/2021 at 11:23 AM, EYESAILOR said:

We don't have the final count yet .......  ;)   

Brazil COVID-19 deaths exceed 4,000 daily as variant rages

Bad taste?

I think that those who are in denial of the pandemic being a massive problem, will react poorly to images of mass graves.

It's a reality of more than 10,000 people dying per day. Such scenes are where the outbreak is worst, currently India and Brazil.

Excess death rates show that thousands more than the recorded deaths are occurring, that funeral sevices are being overwhelmed.

No doubt people wishing to minimize the pandemic will point out huge decreases in India, though not mention large increases in Brazil.

The nature of this global pandemic is that spreads unevenly in waves, and mutates into new variants.

Fingers crossed that the vaccines work. Their effectiveness relies on good management of a rollout, and good luck in that they remain one step ahead of new mutations.

It is a shame on our humanity that we didn't take the necessary actions to reduce the spread, which remains true for many countries throughout the world.

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History will recount the many errors made by governments and citizens.   Speaking for our government here in CT. We took it seriously and we tried .  We came close to being overwhelmed.
 

The reality is that the ONLY way to contain the pandemic is vaccination.    

The more we can embrace vaccination, the better. Olympians can help send a global message .  And bring that message back home with them.   
 

Olympians need to be proud of being vaccinated. Then demonstrate to the world that or is safe to be vaccinated 

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30 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

History will recount the many errors made by governments and citizens.   Speaking for our government here in CT. We took it seriously and we tried .  We came close to being overwhelmed.
 

The reality is that the ONLY way to contain the pandemic is vaccination.    

I think mankind will have to do better than that.  We did not have vaccinations for 1918 pandemic and we are still here.

 

It is just luck that we made vaccinations that worked for this pandemic, where would the world be now if we had failed to make vaccinations?

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1 hour ago, Terry Hollis said:

I think mankind will have to do better than that.  We did not have vaccinations for 1918 pandemic and we are still here.

 

It is just luck that we made vaccinations that worked for this pandemic, where would the world be now if we had failed to make vaccinations?

We did not have vaccines for the 1918 pandemic which killed approximately 50 million people (about 3% of worlds population so about 230 million in  todays terms) .   Yes we are still here but thankfully without the horror of something like the 1918 flu.   That was the first time the human race has been hit by h1N1. It never disappeared and comes back from time to time.  Fortunately we have vaccines for the flu now but there have been two subsequent outbreaks which thankfully did not affect the who

If we had not discovered vaccines (I think it was more than luck) for covid, where would we be now?

Countries which have avoided the virus and had no herd immunity would have to stay isolated for a very long time. Global commerce would be struggling...ggovernments could not finance lock downs for ever and people would have to go back to work and face the risks of getting sick.   It does not really bear thinking about.

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3 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

Countries which have avoided the virus and had no herd immunity would have to stay isolated for a very long time. Global commerce would be struggling...ggovernments could not finance lock downs for ever and people would have to go back to work and face the risks of getting sick.   It does not really bear thinking about.

There were countries which did not avoid the virus, took action, and eliminated community spread.

The vaccine is an important part to achieve global herd immunity, which given the current progress may take a few years to achieve - and it may not be achieved in some areas in the US due to anti vaccine sentiments.

In CT, the dice were already rolled for you at a national level. That being said, you were working uphill in a number of respects, including a mindset of how strict lockdown could be, and having an incredibly rapid influx of infections from having open borders. Like pretty much every nation outside of Asia (including NZ), CT was slow to adopt masks - we had doctors in NZ saying that the incorrect stance taken by the WHO was correct.

For those who don't know, CT was the 7th worst hit state with 2313 recorded deaths per million, with a population of 3.5 million. (Truly, my heart goes out to you Eye, given your occupation, your location, and your willingness to do what in my view was and is right).

---

Many of these challenges apply to Japan for different reasons, resulting in poor outcomes. Those poor outcomes mean that Japanese population have a high risk of infection, and with an older population, a high risk of death.

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(By coincidence, a good friend of mine's son works in Japan as a professor teaching medicine to undergrad doctors. As a consequence of our similar philosophies, and my political bent, we have communicated regularly about Japan, so I have the benefit of his perspectives on Covid in Japan going back to late 2019).

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I maintain that holding the Olympics during a global pandemic with the current plan, acknowledging it will have incremental improvements, is a bad idea.

On order, those risks can be grouped as follows:

1) Outbreaks in Japan (whether or not sourced from the Olympics) are made worse in Japan because of the Olympics. Any lockdowns will be less effective.

2) Globally, new variants are more likely to be spread as a consequence of poor quarantine practices before, during and in particular after the Olympics. Some calculations show approx 16,000 unvaccinated people travelling to a Japan from around the world, then back again.

3) Those attending the Olympics. Athletes themselves and support staff have some risks. While they have a low level of risk as many of the risks are planned to be mitigated, it is worth noting that not all athletes will be vaccinated, and some of their support staff are older and unwell. Visiting media, local media and volunteers present higher risks with their planned interactions with the athletes and support staff.

The third set of risks, were they the only set of risks, would have me supporting the Olympics going ahead. But they are not the only risks. The first two groups of risks make the Olympics in my view a bad idea.

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25 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

 

The vaccine is an important part to achieve global herd immunity, which given the current progress may take a few years to achieve - and it may not be achieved in some areas in the US due to anti vaccine sentiments.

In CT, the dice were already rolled for you at a national level. That being said, you were working uphill in a number of respects, including a mindset of how strict lockdown could be, and having an incredibly rapid influx of infections from having open borders. Like pretty much every nation outside of Asia (including NZ), CT was slow to adopt masks - we had doctors in NZ saying that the incorrect stance taken by the WHO was correct.

For those who don't know, CT was the 7th worst hit state with 2313 recorded deaths per million, with a population of 3.5 million. (Truly, my heart goes out to you Eye, given your occupation, your location, and your willingness to do what in my view was and is right).

---

 

Going way off topic , but because I was there you might be interested in my perspective.

CT got hit hard early and since then has done quite a good job, especially with vaccines. However, even the vaccine process was far from perfect and hopefully we learn from that.

Why were we so hard hit?

1. CT is very close to the New York Airports and has a large commuter population. When the early outbreak flared in neighboring New Rochelle just across the line in NY we knew (in the medical community) that we were in for it. 

2.  The clearest and most obvious steps to handle the pandemic required 4 things

(i) Some kind of lock down and social distancing to pause progress in the pandemic.   But it would have to be coordinated and the problem with the US is that each state has its own rights . CT cannot enforce a pause on NJ and vice versa.The tri states eventually worked together but it was hard at first.

(ii) Masks. We all knew that masks were essential. But there was a shortage and the government did not want to cause masks to be hoarded away from healthcare workers where the need was greatest.There was not enough publicity given to masks. People would have found a way of making them , as they eventually did when the message became clerer

(ii) Our mortality rate was much higher than the second wave because we did not know how to treat the disease. As part of history, I have kept copies of the protocols that evolved during the crisis. In the first three weeks, we were desperately figuring it out. Later states had the benefit of shared knowledge from the tri states. Good protocols was the 3rd thing we needed

(iv) Restrictions on interstate travel.  If one state addressed the covid outbreak, the virus just crossed state lines into the next state, spent 2 months circling around the USA and then came right back to us just as we were prepared to ease up.  We were well prepared the second time.

 

The state has a responsible and fairly civil minded populace. Mask wearing has generally been adhered to as masks are available and vaccinations has a high take up.

The issue will be getting the last 20-35% vaccinated . This is not an anti-vax movement and that mischaracterizes it.   You should understand it as a fear of vaccination.   One of my staff members is a young African American woman.    She has done well in training. Im proud of her , straight out of community college.I asked all my staff to get vaccinated and I organized for them to be vaccinated without charge via our affiliated hospital. They all reported that they were vaccinated.   We continue to periodically test so I was very surprised when this young woman tested positive. I wondered if this was the first personal evidence of a breakthrough infection, but she confessed she had not gone to her vaccine appointment (she had left my office , and come back but hid out rather than be vaccinated).  This is a good woman , who would never go around with an anti-vax banner. The reality is that she is simply scared shitless of the vaccine. I think that there are thousands like her. 

She is currently quarantined. We have talked and texted about her fears.  I think in hindsight I should have organized a group trip to be vaccinated to help everyone talk about their fears and reassure each other. Lesson learnt....it is really scary for some people.

Instead of chastising people and being condescending about :"anti-vaxers" , I think we need to recognize and respect their fear and help them address it. There needs to be real research done on these fears and real solutions developed professionally.

 

I cant help those who are anti-vax on some weird philosophy but we can help those who are fearful of vaccines . Step 1 is to respect those fears rather than ridicule them.

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7 hours ago, Terry Hollis said:

I think mankind will have to do better than that.  We did not have vaccinations for 1918 pandemic and we are still here.

Still here but a lot more died from Spanish Flu. Isn't really a model to aspire to.

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On 5/28/2021 at 1:32 PM, spankoka said:

I'm surprised NBA teams and so on are not actively trying to discourage their players from participating. At least the sailors will be in their own bubble in Kamakura. 

NBA aint going.  They in the middle(1st round) of the playoffs.  No way no how...  

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NBA players and coaches are going, just not from the teams that go deep into the playoffs. For example, Canada has 14 NBA players on the roster preparing in the Raptors training facility right now. I suppose their clubs are to be commended for not telling their players what they can and cannot do in the off-season. 

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4 hours ago, Bruce Hudson said:

The third set of risks, were they the only set of risks, would have me supporting the Olympics going ahead. But they are not the only risks. The first two groups of risks make the Olympics in my view a bad idea.

What if the Olympics are a success and make no difference to the pandemic in Japan?  Will that alter your narrative?  It would seriously undermine it.

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3 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

Our mortality rate was much higher than the second wave because we did not know how to treat the disease. As part of history, I have kept copies of the protocols that evolved during the crisis. In the first three weeks, we were desperately figuring it out.

Why weren't the lessons learnt during SARS-1 and MERS followed?

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3 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

She is currently quarantined. We have talked and texted about her fears.  I think in hindsight I should have organized a group trip to be vaccinated to help everyone talk about their fears and reassure each other. Lesson learnt....it is really scary for some people.

She won't need to be vaccinated now.  Obviously her personal fear of getting Covid-19 was less than her fear of being vaccinated.  

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3 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

The issue will be getting the last 20-35% vaccinated .

What is the percentage of people in this State that are Covid Recovered?  You don't need to achieve 100% vaccination to reach herd immunity if you count those who have already had Covid-19 and recovered.

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5 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

This is not an anti-vax movement and that mischaracterizes it.   You should understand it as a fear of vaccination.

Agreed, though the fear comes as a  consequence of anti vaccine and anti medical sentiments. You are correct in my view to treat the fear as separate.

It plays into some past chapters of medicine not at it's finest, where testing and failure to inform has created a fundamental distrust with segments of communities. (Eg, Tuskegee and beyond).

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NZ has regions. Travel between regions was closed during our level 4 lockdown, then allowed those caught out of their home area (including me) to return home during level 3 (with permission). 

Generally, the US states where I have examined lockdown protocol, have in my view been undermined by their shortcomings. They have proven not to be effective.

While CT is dramatically better than it has been, the state still has 8650 active infections, new infections every day and multiple Covid related deaths every week. Despite this, CT relaxed most of the regulations on May 19.

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There is a freedom paradox. Regions not prepared to 'go hard' with regulations (for whatever reason) do not achieve the elimination of community spread, and have to endure their milder regulations for far longer. 

With a pandemic, freedoms mismanaged end up being the freedom to get sick, and sometimes consequently, as with Covid, a dramatically increased number of deaths. 

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NZ has a long-standing deep commitment to freedom. I am fascinated by the US who have a lot of rhetoric about their commitment to freedom, but does not achieve the same level of freedom enjoyed in NZ.

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The 'Delta variant' is right now causing an increase in the UK, which sadly may be repeated in other areas around the world.

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These are all relevant topics for Japan, which continues to struggle with Covid.

"Japan: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps" https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/japan/

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The real question here with respect to holding or cancelling the Olympics, is how safe is safe enough?

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

What is the percentage of people in this State that are Covid Recovered?  You don't need to achieve 100% vaccination to reach herd immunity if you count those who have already had Covid-19 and recovered.

We have advised everyone to get vaccinated, even if you are Covid recovered. This surprised me at first but my understanding is that immunity to future infection and variants is better with the vaccine than with mild covid.  No I cant quote evidence for that but all medical staff at the hospital have been advised to get vaccinated even if they have previously tested positive.

The general point is that we are still reporting cases every day and the sooner everyone get vaccinated the better. We have a lot of vaccine available.

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4 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

This surprised me at first but my understanding is that immunity to future infection and variants is better with the vaccine than with mild covid.

Research into SARS-1 immunity discovered that mild infection did result in lasting immunity. 

There are studies emerging that look at natural immunity - those that contend vaccines are better than natural immunity have focused on Anti-body levels whereas those that say the opposite have tended to be broader in their assessment of immunity markers i.e. looked at other cells in the immunity complex.

If mild or asymptomatic infection did not confer lasting immunity then we would see far larger numbers of reinfections particularly if we believe that some of the new variants are more infectious.  I'm somewhat sceptical that many of the new variants are indeed more infectious.  You only have to look at how quickly the India case rate has declined especially when you acknowledge that that decline started before lockdown measures were introduced.  Although how a lockdown would work in India beggars belief when you consider the population density.

 

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27 minutes ago, Bruce Hudson said:

While CT is dramatically better than it has been, the state still has 8650 active infections, new infections every day and multiple Covid related deaths every week. Despite this, CT relaxed most of the regulations on May 19.

The 8650 active is a trailing number .   The more important numbers to focus on are daily new cases and % positive in testing.   This might look good at first, down to 130 +/- and trending to sub 100, compared to 3,600 in January.   But its important to remember that we fell to these levels last June and then the 2nd wave hot in the Fall.

The number of vaccinations and recovered covids prevents this Fall being as bad as last Fall but we have a window here in which we could likely eliminate the disease before the Fall. We need to seize it.  Sending a fully vaccinated team to Japan would be a great first step :) 

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1 minute ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Research into SARS-1 immunity discovered that mild infection did result in lasting immunity. 

There are studies emerging that look at natural immunity - those that contend vaccines are better than natural immunity have focused on Anti-body levels whereas those that say the opposite have tended to be broader in their assessment of immunity markers i.e. looked at other cells in the immunity complex.

If mild or asymptomatic infection did not confer lasting immunity then we would see far larger numbers of reinfections particularly if we believe that some of the new variants are more infectious.  I'm somewhat sceptical that many of the new variants are indeed more infectious.  You only have to look at how quickly the India case rate has declined especially when you acknowledge that that decline started before lockdown measures were introduced.  Although how a lockdown would work in India beggars belief when you consider the population density.

 

I guess we dont know.  I would encourage everyone to get vaccinated. Better safe than sorry and double immunity is not a bad thing. I suspect we will all need booster shots in due course anyway.   Of course the vaccine companies are going to advocate for boosters (They aint dumb). Hopefully we will see independent research on the necessity for boosters.

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

The 8650 active is a trailing number .   The more important numbers to focus on are daily new cases and % positive in testing.   This might look good at first, down to 130 +/- and trending to sub 100, compared to 3,600 in January.   But its important to remember that we fell to these levels last June and then the 2nd wave hot in the Fall.

These are all trailing numbers, and record the number found, not the actual number in the wild.

The virus spreads quickly, and tracking the extent of outbreaks shows any shortcomings in measures taken.

Getting ahead of the virus to achieve elimination of community spread is difficult, but possible.

And elimination of community spread in my view should be the goal everywhere.

I'm sorry to say but I expect another wave on many places, including CT, from the delta variant. :(

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3 hours ago, spankoka said:

The one family member of mine who got covid did later get his jab. Since his work is protein quantitation, I think he knows what he is doing. 

Everyone I know who got covid and survived has had the jab except for one who is still convalescing and not well enough to tolerate a vaccine. 

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