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Shaggy asking if someone can spell gets today's trophy.

The drive to create a self-driving car has nothing really to do with owners not having to drive the car.   It will usher in a paradigm shift in vehicle ownership.  If a car can drive itself to your do

Not me. I ask "What about the joy of a lumpy cam? Shifting to the gear you want? Shifting fast or shifting lazy? Etc."

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When the mfr's realize they have been exposed, they will find a way to lock down their software.  No matter, hackers will bust it open anyway.  

Electric cars are still going to be a thing once the energy density of batteries improves a little more.   When you can get the same range as a liquid fuel car on a battery, why wouldn't you want electric?

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33 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

W.   When you can get the same range as a liquid fuel car on a battery, why wouldn't you want electric?

Range isn’t really a problem. Tesla are going 300+miles. And are able to go coastto coast in about 6 hours  more time than a similar fossil fueled vehicle.

the refuel time of the electric  is the sticky wicket.   I can refuel gas in about 5 minutes.  5 times that for electric, and that’s only for about 80% charge.   My Ford C-Max energy, takes about 2 hours or so to fully charge for 20 miles on a 220v charger.  Takes 3 times that on 110v.  Fine for commuting to from work. Charge at home drive to work, charge at work driv home.  Last tank I went over 1200 miles on 12 gallon of gas...

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I see a future where abandoned battery powered cars are owned by phantom entities residing at a single phantom address and the municipality is stuck with the cost of disposing of the batteries.

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a bit of fast and loose with "facts"

That bit about Beijing having terrible pollution in Jan is not from cars but with fine dust of the deserts of Mongolia blowing 400 miles into town.  Worse than smoke.  Been there before all the cars arrived and folks were still peddling their ugly asses on bicycles.  It sucked.

Every flick like this likes to go after big oil and GM for ripping up the trolleys.    Well that was 70 years ago.  Since then many cities have rebuilt their public transit using fuel taxes as their fares have not allowed a profit by a long shot.    Fact is due the pandemic the need for cities has decreased as we have found we do not need to go into the cities.   The cities must now understand they must come up with a reason for people to come back.  High taxes, bums shitting on the streets, and defunding the police is not the right answer.

 

Brazil went to bio because they had destroyed their economy and devalued their currency so many times, they could not buy foreign oil and not because they were out to change the world.   this was done across the board and not just energy.    It worked for them, but now they are a victim of their own success.  They started to sell to Europe which brought in hard currency and in 2019 passed laws that green-lighted growing biomass anywhere.  Now the rain forests are being cut down to grow sugarcane.  Gee, how did that happen?

 

That BS about nothing in the fuel system in a new car to preclude flexfuel.   We have seen carburetor floats and other fuel syste bits dissolve due to corn squeezings.  You do not fix that with a software path via the ORBII port.  Expert was talking out his ass.

 

Sounds swell in US, but the fact is today, Biomass, biofuels, and wood only make up 4% of our energy. 

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

They have a long way to gear up to be a game changer so we can shut off the oil.

 

The major oil companies do not own the drilling/pumping anymore.  They are moving to refining and distribution.  More money and no risk  refining fuels, plastic and run convenience stores.  Exxon's latest numbers were superb due to plastics production.  Chicken and egg.  You get the people to want ethanol or methanol and they will get rid of mid grade and offer it.   They also make less than a quarter the amount for federal and state gas taxes to provide the product.   Congress-critters like to make them look evil in kabuki theater of house and senate investigations.  The numbers are big due to the volumes.  Look at the breakdown on a gallon of gallon of gas.

 

Where are all the batteries for solar powered cars going to come from?  Already issues with lithium, cobalt and other rare earth metals where 90% are sourced from China.    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/world-will-run-out-ev-batteries-2025   .

Was reading the other day Ford may be in serious trouble rolling out the new electric F-150 pickup as it cannot get the batteries it needs never mind the requirements for the E-stang. Remember each of these vehicles needs 4000 batteries.   And NOBODY wants to talk about what to do with all the expired batteries 10 years down the line.   No clue how the dispose of these chemicals.   Will make nuclear waste small potatoes due to volumes.

 

But there are good points to consider:

Check out 25:00 into that flick of gas prices going up triggering an economic crash.  Anyone notice fuel is up .90 a gallon since the inauguration?  Have you also noticed just like they say in the film that everything else will start to increase in price before a major crash several months later?    Buy any food lately?   Anyone paying attention to the banks giving back money to the federal reserve because they do not want to loan it out due to the risk of it not being paid back.   800 billion dollars in past 3 weeks with estimates of 2.5 trillion in next 2 months.  What do the banks see coming down the pike that makes them not want to lend money anymore?  Highly suggest you check out some Steve Van Metre videos from the past 2 weeks on Youtube.  Very sobering.  The backed up demand of the pandemic is hiding a bubble ready to blow and high fuel prices is a natural spark.

 

China will compete for energy and it could lead to war .   The Pentagon has been preparing for this for years.  You heard in that film the Indonesian VP saying GM sells more cars in China than in the US.  Explains why so many US corporations have sold out the US for market share in China over the past 20 years.    The same corporations who donate lavishly to both parties to do their bidding.  The Chinese are wise enough to know whores when they see them them and use them as such.

 

To be taken seriously, one has to be honest with ones facts.

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9 hours ago, warbird said:

I see a future where abandoned battery powered cars are owned by phantom entities residing at a single phantom address and the municipality is stuck with the cost of disposing of the batteries.

This, BIG TIME!!!!!!!

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I'm calling bullshit on this thread.

The new generation of EVs are faster, more economical to run, cheaper to make and all together better than gas cars. And they are less polluting, if that floats your boat.

Not only that, the technology is now in the hands of the semiconductor guys (the same guys that brought you Moore's Law and computers that double in performance every couple of years). With Silicon Carbide power transistors, new developments in motor magnetics, self-driving features and fast chargers that can get you from 20% to 80% faster than you can say "Grande non-fat latte", there will be no reason not to buy an EV. We are in transition and so there's going to be short term trade offs to consider, but long term the world is clearly and definitively going electric - any current controversy is just BS from mental dinosaurs and the last thrash of the oil companies trying to Philip Morris the gullible old timers into one more V8. Light up, grandpa, the rest of us will enjoy clean power that does not disturb the ambiance of our stereo, while you're turning down your deaf-aid as you crawl away from every stoplight.

 

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WS, I do not think any of your second sentence is currently true. None of it.
In time that may change. And one can argue that we must go through the current phase in EV development before we can actually reap benefits from such necessary evolution. 

As for self-driving vehicles, a whole other category of our current state of de-evolution.

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34 minutes ago, quod umbra said:

WS, I do not think any of your second sentence is currently true. None of it.
In time that may change. And one can argue that we must go through the current phase in EV development before we can actually reap benefits from such necessary evolution. 

As for self-driving vehicles, a whole other category of our current state of de-evolution.

Well, everyone has an opinion. They are faster. Check out the new Porsche.  They are cheaper to make. Less moving parts. They are less polluting depending on where you get your electricity from. 

 

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10 hours ago, Foreverslow said:

a bit of fast and loose with "facts"

That bit about Beijing having terrible pollution in Jan is not from cars but with fine dust of the deserts of Mongolia blowing 400 miles into town.  Worse than smoke.  Been there before all the cars arrived and folks were still peddling their ugly asses on bicycles.  It sucked.

Every flick like this likes to go after big oil and GM for ripping up the trolleys.    Well that was 70 years ago.  Since then many cities have rebuilt their public transit using fuel taxes as their fares have not allowed a profit by a long shot.    Fact is due the pandemic the need for cities has decreased as we have found we do not need to go into the cities.   The cities must now understand they must come up with a reason for people to come back.  High taxes, bums shitting on the streets, and defunding the police is not the right answer.

 

Brazil went to bio because they had destroyed their economy and devalued their currency so many times, they could not buy foreign oil and not because they were out to change the world.   this was done across the board and not just energy.    It worked for them, but now they are a victim of their own success.  They started to sell to Europe which brought in hard currency and in 2019 passed laws that green-lighted growing biomass anywhere.  Now the rain forests are being cut down to grow sugarcane.  Gee, how did that happen?

 

That BS about nothing in the fuel system in a new car to preclude flexfuel.   We have seen carburetor floats and other fuel syste bits dissolve due to corn squeezings.  You do not fix that with a software path via the ORBII port.  Expert was talking out his ass.

 

Sounds swell in US, but the fact is today, Biomass, biofuels, and wood only make up 4% of our energy. 

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/

They have a long way to gear up to be a game changer so we can shut off the oil.

 

The major oil companies do not own the drilling/pumping anymore.  They are moving to refining and distribution.  More money and no risk  refining fuels, plastic and run convenience stores.  Exxon's latest numbers were superb due to plastics production.  Chicken and egg.  You get the people to want ethanol or methanol and they will get rid of mid grade and offer it.   They also make less than a quarter the amount for federal and state gas taxes to provide the product.   Congress-critters like to make them look evil in kabuki theater of house and senate investigations.  The numbers are big due to the volumes.  Look at the breakdown on a gallon of gallon of gas.

 

Where are all the batteries for solar powered cars going to come from?  Already issues with lithium, cobalt and other rare earth metals where 90% are sourced from China.    https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/world-will-run-out-ev-batteries-2025   .

Was reading the other day Ford may be in serious trouble rolling out the new electric F-150 pickup as it cannot get the batteries it needs never mind the requirements for the E-stang. Remember each of these vehicles needs 4000 batteries.   And NOBODY wants to talk about what to do with all the expired batteries 10 years down the line.   No clue how the dispose of these chemicals.   Will make nuclear waste small potatoes due to volumes.

 

But there are good points to consider:

Check out 25:00 into that flick of gas prices going up triggering an economic crash.  Anyone notice fuel is up .90 a gallon since the inauguration?  Have you also noticed just like they say in the film that everything else will start to increase in price before a major crash several months later?    Buy any food lately?   Anyone paying attention to the banks giving back money to the federal reserve because they do not want to loan it out due to the risk of it not being paid back.   800 billion dollars in past 3 weeks with estimates of 2.5 trillion in next 2 months.  What do the banks see coming down the pike that makes them not want to lend money anymore?  Highly suggest you check out some Steve Van Metre videos from the past 2 weeks on Youtube.  Very sobering.  The backed up demand of the pandemic is hiding a bubble ready to blow and high fuel prices is a natural spark.

 

China will compete for energy and it could lead to war .   The Pentagon has been preparing for this for years.  You heard in that film the Indonesian VP saying GM sells more cars in China than in the US.  Explains why so many US corporations have sold out the US for market share in China over the past 20 years.    The same corporations who donate lavishly to both parties to do their bidding.  The Chinese are wise enough to know whores when they see them them and use them as such.

 

To be taken seriously, one has to be honest with ones facts.

It’s all good till the locust show up. 

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31 minutes ago, Code 2 said:

I'm trying to imagine a surf trip in Baja with an electric vehicle......

Yeah.....no......

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I can't be the only person here who feels that 'self-driving' cars are like the dumbest fuking things ever made since the square tire?.....

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7 minutes ago, El Mariachi said:

I can't be the only person here who feels that 'self-driving' cars are like the dumbest fuking things ever made since the square tire?.....

No, you aren't.

The trouble with the ever increasing speed of technological improvements is that they want to rush them to market before all of the major bugs are worked out.  EVs and self driving cars are two examples.  Of course the law of unintended consequences comes into play as well.  Look what social media has become, it's anything but social.  Then there is the problem of the new technology exceeding the mental horsepower of the average user...

I'm glad I'm old.  Neither of these products will be ubiquitous before I die.  My older sister always says; "There's a reason we die.  The world changes too much during our lifespan."

Shit, gotta run, I need to yell at some fukin kid on my lawn.

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1 hour ago, Wet Spreaders said:

I'm calling bullshit on this thread.

The new generation of EVs are faster, more economical to run, cheaper to make and all together better than gas cars. And they are less polluting, if that floats your boat.

Not only that, the technology is now in the hands of the semiconductor guys (the same guys that brought you Moore's Law and computers that double in performance every couple of years). With Silicon Carbide power transistors, new developments in motor magnetics, self-driving features and fast chargers that can get you from 20% to 80% faster than you can say "Grande non-fat latte", there will be no reason not to buy an EV. We are in transition and so there's going to be short term trade offs to consider, but long term the world is clearly and definitively going electric - any current controversy is just BS from mental dinosaurs and the last thrash of the oil companies trying to Philip Morris the gullible old timers into one more V8. Light up, grandpa, the rest of us will enjoy clean power that does not disturb the ambiance of our stereo, while you're turning down your deaf-aid as you crawl away from every stoplight.

 

so what  you're saying is, If you add more crap to your coffee you can probably get to 100% charged? 

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Don't conflate self-driving with battery electric, they're two different things. Self-driving won't be practical until it gets to a much higher level of reliability. All the easy gains have been taken. Development will be a long slog from here on out.

Battery electric powertrains are another matter. They're totally practical today. Yes, higher power density batteries would bring weight and cost down. And yes, solid state or other fast-charging battery tech would make the rollout much faster by allowing fewer charging stations. And yes, battery electric is still pricey. However, they've already reached the point where the manufacturers can sell every BEV they can make, they can do it (barely) profitably, and they recognize that they don't have to option to keep manufacturing their ICE vehicles for more than a few years. The transition is happening now and nothing will stop it. Ten years from now, today's BEVs will seem like clunky dinosaurs but today's BEV dinosaurs are already leagues ahead of today's ICE vehicles in efficiency, reliability, and performance.

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This thread got me wondering.

How long til someone gets the bright idea to set up warehouses of batteries with a hoist out front.

You drive in and a crew lifts car and swaps batteries and your out the door in 15 minutes.

We will finally have come full circle back to full service stations!!

 

WL

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9 minutes ago, White Lightning2 said:

This thread got me wondering.

How long til someone gets the bright idea to set up warehouses of batteries with a hoist out front.

You drive in and a crew lifts car and swaps batteries and your out the door in 15 minutes.

We will finally have come full circle back to full service stations!!

 

WL

already in the works

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131836_report-battery-swapping-might-still-boom-for-taxis-or-ride-hailing

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25 minutes ago, IStream said:

Don't conflate self-driving with battery electric, they're two different things. Self-driving won't be practical until it gets to a much higher level of reliability. All the easy gains have been taken. Development will be a long slog from here on out.

Battery electric powertrains are another matter. They're totally practical today. Yes, higher power density batteries would bring weight and cost down. And yes, solid state or other fast-charging battery tech would make the rollout much faster by allowing fewer charging stations. And yes, battery electric is still pricey. However, they've already reached the point where the manufacturers can sell every BEV they can make, they can do it (barely) profitably, and they recognize that they don't have to option to keep manufacturing their ICE vehicles for more than a few years. The transition is happening now and nothing will stop it. Ten years from now, today's BEVs will seem like clunky dinosaurs but today's BEV dinosaurs are already leagues ahead of today's ICE vehicles in efficiency, reliability, and performance.

Yes. And the biggest problem for the vehicle owner will be the pace of change. Value depreciation will likely follow the same kind of curve that the PCs suffered in the 1990's, with the latest model already obsolete before it leaves the showroom. My prediction is that the current car companies (VW, GM, Ford etc) will become brands that specify the vehicle, but they won't make it. All these guys will do is pick the exterior/interior colors and the number of cupholders, the real value will be in the electrical systems - whether for traction or control or entertainment. Already 35% of the value of a car is the electronics - and that's going to go up to 50% by 2026. Electronics benefits massively from scale, and so that will tend to consolidate manufacturing, drive up features and drive down costs. My advice - go electric, but lease. Let the car company take it back and recycle it early - don't get stuck with an asset that is depreciating fast due to time and obsolescence, not wear and tear.

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Forklifts already use a battery swapping model.

This company, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Better_Place_(company), attempted to create a battery swapping/service station network in Israel over a decade ago but went bankrupt. Maybe they were slightly ahead of there time(in addition to being poorly managed).

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2 minutes ago, White Lightning2 said:

This thread got me wondering.

How long til someone gets the bright idea to set up warehouses of batteries with a hoist out front.

You drive in and a crew lifts car and swaps batteries and your out the door in 15 minutes.

We will finally have come full circle back to full service stations!!

 

Many have thought of that, some are doing it now with scooters. Lack of standardization is a pretty large hurdle. 

WS is right: My electric car is a ball to drive, it's wicked fast, at current gas/electric prices about 1/3 the cost per mile for fuel (even cheaper if I drive to work where charging is free), requires zero maintenance, and I never stop at gas stations.  It's amazing what a PITA I find pumping gas is when I'm driving a gasser. 

Pre-pandemic I commuted 50+ miles per day in an electric car. Drive it from OC to San Diego regularly. 

"But whaddabout range?"  If I'm going to drive across the country, I'd drive something other than my electric car. I'd drive something other than a 4-cyl rockcrawler jeep too.  Every single discussion of electric cars ever somebody's gotta say "But what If I want to take a road trip to Topeka?".... Every... Single... Time....

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Ed Lada said:

No, you aren't.

The trouble with the ever increasing speed of technological improvements is that they want to rush them to market before all of the major bugs are worked out.  EVs and self driving cars are two examples.  Of course the law of unintended consequences comes into play as well.  Look what social media has become, it's anything but social.  Then there is the problem of the new technology exceeding the mental horsepower of the average user...

I'm glad I'm old.  Neither of these products will be ubiquitous before I die.  My older sister always says; "There's a reason we die.  The world changes too much during our lifespan."

Shit, gotta run, I need to yell at some fukin kid on my lawn.

Self-driving cars are ideal for old people - you should cheer the trend rather than get all curmudgeonly about "back in my day cars were real cars with real smog and real airbag deployments ...."  When you can't see shit, or your addled mind can't remember your way home from bingo, just croak the instructions to your car and it will see you safely where you want to go. Unless you get some kind of thrill about using the silver seat on local public transport.

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1 minute ago, gptyk said:

Many have thought of that, some are doing it now with scooters. Lack of standardization is a pretty large hurdle. 

WS is right: My electric car is a ball to drive, it's wicked fast, at current gas/electric prices about 1/3 the cost per mile for fuel (even cheaper if I drive to work where charging is free), requires zero maintenance, and I never stop at gas stations.  It's amazing what a PITA I find pumping gas is when I'm driving a gasser. 

Pre-pandemic I commuted 50+ miles per day in an electric car. Drive it from OC to San Diego regularly. 

"But whaddabout range?"  If I'm going to drive across the country, I'd drive something other than my electric car. I'd drive something other than a 4-cyl rockcrawler jeep too.  Every single discussion of electric cars ever somebody's gotta say "But what If I want to take a road trip to Topeka?".... Every... Single... Time....

 

 

 

We're working on technology that will charge a car from 20% to 80% in 8 minutes. That will add 180 to 250 miles or so to a decent spec 2025 model year EV.  I don't think it's unreasonable to get out and stretch your legs for 8 minutes every 3 hours. 

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14 hours ago, Rain Man said:

When the mfr's realize they have been exposed, they will find a way to lock down their software.  No matter, hackers will bust it open anyway.  

Electric cars are still going to be a thing once the energy density of batteries improves a little more.   When you can get the same range as a liquid fuel car on a battery, why wouldn't you want electric?

In my case it would cost between $5 and $10K minimum to get a home charging station installed.

That's a bit of a disincentive.

That said, I agree that EV is the future - dino powered cars will be collectibles in my children's lifetime.

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This is a boutique argument until they solve two fundamental problems:

Generation and transmission.

The amount of energy consumed by the transportation industry is staggering.  I lost my notes, but I think we would need about 40 large new nuclear power plants to cover the gap in Canada.  The capacity increase is a multiple of our current hydro + nuclear capacity.  There is no way to get this much reliable base load from solar and wind, we have used all the good  (and some of the bad) hydro sites, and coal or natural gas would create a net increase in emissions.

Then you need enough power lines to get it where it needs to be.

Will be viable when we have home fusion.

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1 minute ago, SloopJonB said:

In my case it would cost between $5 and $10K minimum to get a home charging station installed.

That's a bit of a disincentive.

It depends what kind of charger you want. My kid's Fiat uses a $200 charger that plugs into either 110V or 240V standard outlets. In the 240V outlet it takes 4 hours to charge. 

My impression is that the EV dealerships fuck you on the charger install, just the same as they fuck you on the key insurance, the scotchguard interior treatments, extended warranty, document fees, mystery fees, location fees etc....

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1 minute ago, Wet Spreaders said:

We're working on technology that will charge a car from 20% to 80% in 8 minutes. That will add 180 to 250 miles or so to a decent spec 2025 model year EV.  I don't think it's unreasonable to get out and stretch your legs for 8 minutes every 3 hours. 

Gotta take a leak sometime. Even now, with a DC fast charger, all you need to do is stop for a burger.

But it's interesting that that really only feeds the "I gotta take a road trip" use case. Which is not what 99% of people do with their cars. They drive to work. They drive to wallyworld. They drop the spawn off at the school and pick the spawn back up. Less than 50 miles in the vast majority of cases. So while cross-country range is a true argument, it's not a very pertinent one. With a decent total transportation system (not the U.S.) there's a lot of discussion of solving the "last mile" problems - and there's lots of change in the world right now on that front - e-bikes, e-scooters, etc..

Another way to get a decent value on an electric car is to buy used off-lease. Fiat 500's were going for like $5K-$6K around here off lease. Sure, compliance car and all, but that's a heluva deal for a kid car or short commuter. 

Self driving is getting lots of $$$ behind it. It will reduce traffic fatalities. And reducing fatalities is a major goal/metric of those (like me) that work in transportation. There's a lot of infrastructure going into the roadways and signalization systems to support self-driving.  There will be a point in time (unless we kill ourselves first) where folks wonder why they ever let humans control 5000lb death missiles. (Larry Niven's Safe at Any Speed)

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14 minutes ago, gptyk said:

  Every single discussion of electric cars ever somebody's gotta say "But what If I want to take a road trip to Topeka?".... Every... Single... Time....

 

 

 

Not me. I ask "What about the joy of a lumpy cam? Shifting to the gear you want? Shifting fast or shifting lazy? Etc."

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You should see the wait lines at the Manning park charging station I drive past with my 1000 Kilometer range.

Whats needed is more charging stations.

https://www.abbynews.com/news/hope-becomes-a-bigger-draw-for-tesla-drivers-with-12-new-stations/

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17 minutes ago, Wet Spreaders said:

Yes. And the biggest problem for the vehicle owner will be the pace of change. Value depreciation will likely follow the same kind of curve that the PCs suffered in the 1990's, with the latest model already obsolete before it leaves the showroom. My prediction is that the current car companies (VW, GM, Ford etc) will become brands that specify the vehicle, but they won't make it. All these guys will do is pick the exterior/interior colors and the number of cupholders, the real value will be in the electrical systems - whether for traction or control or entertainment. Already 35% of the value of a car is the electronics - and that's going to go up to 50% by 2026. Electronics benefits massively from scale, and so that will tend to consolidate manufacturing, drive up features and drive down costs. My advice - go electric, but lease. Let the car company take it back and recycle it early - don't get stuck with an asset that is depreciating fast due to time and obsolescence, not wear and tear.

I agree on leasing to start but disagree on the major brands becoming nothing but specifiers. They've already had the experience of having to procure key, high value components from third party suppliers and I don't think they want to cede that ground again. Electrification gives them a reset and that's why GM and others have developed their own motors and platforms from scratch. The smaller companies will have to rely on suppliers but the big, well-capitalized ones that are smart will roll their own.

 

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1 minute ago, gptyk said:

<snip>

Another way to get a decent value on an electric car is to buy used off-lease. Fiat 500's were going for like $5K-$6K around here off lease. Sure, compliance car and all, but that's a heluva deal for a kid car or short commuter. 

<snip>

I bought my 16 year old a Fiat 500e with 8K miles on it and all the modern safety stuff (side impact airbags etc) for $9900. It's cost me nothing (like.. zero!) in gas, oil, or any maintenance whatsoever in 18 months. What he wanted was an F150 and his friends give him endless shit about the Fiat (6'1", 195lb starting running back - Fiat does not match the image he wants to project), but he has what he needs to get to school, football practice etc without using my wife as a taxi service, and it's cheap. We have a 12KW solar array on the roof and my end of year true-up is almost nothing. All in all, EVs are the best deal ever, and getting better all the time. I would be surprised if my kid ever owns a gas car because by the time he can afford to buy something better than the Fiat, better will be 100% EV.

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13 minutes ago, warbird said:

Not me. I ask "What about the joy of a lumpy cam? Shifting to the gear you want? Shifting fast or shifting lazy? Etc."

 

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FB_IMG_1614819817803.jpg

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15 hours ago, Rain Man said:

When the mfr's realize they have been exposed, they will find a way to lock down their software.  No matter, hackers will bust it open anyway.  

Electric cars are still going to be a thing once the energy density of batteries improves a little more.   When you can get the same range as a liquid fuel car on a battery, why wouldn't you want electric?

well if you travel long distance ,it'll be the recharge time,  who wants to wait 1 hour at a rest stop and have to do that 2 - 3 times a trip..  7 hour trip now becomes a 10 hour trip..

but fossil fuels aren't the answer either...

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6 minutes ago, IStream said:

I agree on leasing to start but disagree on the major brands becoming nothing but specifiers. They've already had the experience of having to procure key, high value components from third party suppliers and I don't think they want to cede that ground again. Electrification gives them a reset and that's why GM and others have developed their own motors and platforms from scratch. The smaller companies will have to rely on suppliers but the big, well-capitalized ones that are smart will roll their own.

 

I think with gas engines and all of the complexity of making a gas vehicle go, there was a lot of IP and knowhow wrapped up in generating power, managing injection, ignition and meeting emissions regs. But electric motors are a commodity. In the short term there are good reasons for the car companies to invest in their own motors and inverters (how else can you keep the union in your obsolete gearbox plant from causing trouble - "we're converting you to make EV motors") but in the end, they will commoditize and when they do, the motors will come from places where it's cheap to wind copper wire, has low eco control over unobtainium mines and it's practically free to solder down transistors.

IBM used to make motherboards and all of the parts for a PC except the processor. Eventually, all the parts went away and they assembled PCs. Then they said "fuck it" , flogged the low profitability hardware company to the Chinese and went into services. think about HP, Dell, Micron, Gateway, Compaq etc - all either gone or become branding houses (or started as a branding house - Dell). In my opinion, cars will do the same because the OEMs won't be able to keep up with the fast-movers. You can't take a year doing A-sample, then another doing B-sample, then productize with C-sample material and then start production in year 4, if the technology has moved on 2 generations while you have been making sure that the old stuff will last 10x longer than anyone is going to want to drive this obsolete bucket of bolts. Cars will become more or less disposable items.  iWatch is another example - it has 1000x the utility of a Rolex, costs 10x less and is definitely not a heirloom. After 3 or 4 years it's scrap - toss and get another one with the beef to run the latest and greatest code, and the upgrades sensors needed to feed the code.

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25 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

In my case it would cost between $5 and $10K minimum to get a home charging station installed.

That's a bit of a disincentive.

That said, I agree that EV is the future - dino powered cars will be collectibles in my children's lifetime.

You're pretty handy, I wonder if you can install it yourself and hire an electrician to go over the installation and verify it was done correctly prior to connecting it to the panel.  Might not help much if there is a panel upgrade involved - that is a bit more or a project.

There are also some rebates available: https://electricvehicles.bchydro.com/incentives/charger-rebates

Our next vehicle will be a plug-in hybrid, unless there is a significant price drop in longer-range electrics in the next couple of years.

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4 minutes ago, Wet Spreaders said:

I bought my 16 year old a Fiat 500e with 8K miles on it...

I'd bet a doughnut that if your kid drove a F-150 after driving the 500e for 18 months he'd complain about the PITA the F-150 is to park, maneuver, slow to get going, etc..

I have a Tacoma in the family fleet (Kid car, running to home depot) and I cannot stand driving it. It's too big. Pain to park. Slow as molasses. Kids hate driving it too and take the electric car if it's in the driveway. It's a totally mediocre vehicle. Only bought it because SWMBO insisted that a Toyota will hold it's resale. True, I could easily sell it for more than I paid for it. 

 

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47 minutes ago, Wet Spreaders said:

Self-driving cars are ideal for old people - you should cheer the trend rather than get all curmudgeonly about "back in my day cars were real cars with real smog and real airbag deployments ...."  When you can't see shit, or your addled mind can't remember your way home from bingo, just croak the instructions to your car and it will see you safely where you want to go. Unless you get some kind of thrill about using the silver seat on local public transport.

The drive to create a self-driving car has nothing really to do with owners not having to drive the car.   It will usher in a paradigm shift in vehicle ownership.  If a car can drive itself to your door, and there is a fleet of them available at all times, why would you ever own one?  In the future, you will use an app to order up a car, it will appear at your door, and then you can either drive it or have it drive you wherever you want to go.   

At the end of the day the car will drive to a charging station and charge itself.

Car ownership will be a thing of the past, except for some who just want to own one anyway.  The kids in urban areas are already doing this with rideshare and car-sharing companies like Evo.  Owning cars is expensive and we have already made economic circumstances difficult for young people.

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31 minutes ago, Wet Spreaders said:

It depends what kind of charger you want. My kid's Fiat uses a $200 charger that plugs into either 110V or 240V standard outlets. In the 240V outlet it takes 4 hours to charge. 

My impression is that the EV dealerships fuck you on the charger install, just the same as they fuck you on the key insurance, the scotchguard interior treatments, extended warranty, document fees, mystery fees, location fees etc....

It's not the charger - I'd need a new electrical panel 'cause it's currently full, Due to the configuration of the property I'd need a charging station remote from the house which would require trenching a concrete slab and a 1 year old $15K driveway - etc. etc. etc.

I've checked it out with my electrician BIL - it would be a major job with no alternatives.

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3 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

It's not the charger - I'd need a new electrical panel 'cause it's currently full, Due to the configuration of the property I'd need a charging station remote from the house which would require trenching a concrete slab and a 1 year old $15K driveway - etc. etc. etc.

I've checked it out with my electrician BIL - it would be a major job with no alternatives.

Go solar.  A large solar array with batteries to store might be cost-effective vs. an expensive upgrade to the panel.

Might be a problem in winter when the sun doesn't shine much.

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1 hour ago, IStream said:

Don't conflate self-driving with battery electric, they're two different things. Self-driving won't be practical until it gets to a much higher level of reliability

Nope, already there.

Self-driving cars are about 3,000X safer than human-driven ones. They have better sensors (they can see in the dark and they see 360 at all times) and faster reflexes.

There is no case that I've seen where a self-driving car has crashed that human driver would not have crashed worse.... in fact the ones I've seen reported are from a human fucking up and pulling right in front of them.

The biggest problem with self-driving cars... they don't speed. Everybody hates them.

- DSK

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47 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

In my case it would cost between $5 and $10K minimum to get a home charging station installed.

That's a bit of a disincentive.

That said, I agree that EV is the future - dino powered cars will be collectibles in my children's lifetime.

I don't think you really need a fast-charger at home. We already had 220 in the garage, ran an extension, hooked up the transformer that came with the car, and done. 

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6 minutes ago, SloopJonB said:

It's not the charger - I'd need a new electrical panel 'cause it's currently full, Due to the configuration of the property I'd need a charging station remote from the house which would require trenching a concrete slab and a 1 year old $15K driveway - etc. etc. etc.

I've checked it out with my electrician BIL - it would be a major job with no alternatives.

oh, that's a bit different

 

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1 minute ago, Steam Flyer said:

Nope, already there.

Self-driving cars are about 3,000X safer than human-driven ones. They have better sensors (they can see in the dark and they see 360 at all times) and faster reflexes.

There is no case that I've seen where a self-driving car has crashed that human driver would not have crashed worse.... in fact the ones I've seen reported are from a human fucking up and pulling right in front of them.

The biggest problem with self-driving cars... they don't speed. Everybody hates them.

- DSK

I can see a day in the not too distant future where commuter lanes become self-driving lanes, with a higher speed limit... BOOM!

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I believe a part of the upcoming infrastructure bill is building more charging stations. Not giving up my F150 anytime soon but SWMBO may be getting one pretty soon.

Self driving? That would benefit a bunch of people I know who won't go after dark because of poor night vision. As our nation ages the problem will only increase.

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12 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

The drive to create a self-driving car has nothing really to do with owners not having to drive the car.   It will usher in a paradigm shift in vehicle ownership.  If a car can drive itself to your door, and there is a fleet of them available at all times, why would you ever own one?  In the future, you will use an app to order up a car, it will appear at your door, and then you can either drive it or have it drive you wherever you want to go.   

At the end of the day the car will drive to a charging station and charge itself.

Car ownership will be a thing of the past.

That's the key change that folks fully bought into the current system can't wrap their heads around. We're already dumping one of our rigs as we figure the occasional Lyft (I need to get over my uber-hate, they have new mgmt) is much cheaper than keeping that 3rd rig maintained and insured. 

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4 minutes ago, Raz&#x27;r said:

I can see a day in the not too distant future where commuter lanes become self-driving lanes, with a higher speed limit... BOOM!

I can see a day when it suddenly dawns on the average American driver that electric motors have oodles more torque, and when you put your foot in it, the car fuckin' JUMPS.

Then you will see all these noodle-head complaints about electric cars vanish into thin air.

Self-driving? They should call it the you-can-text-all-you-want car.

- DSK

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Was talking to a guy in a beach bar band down here a couple weeks ago.....and he told me a good friend of his either owns or test drove a new model Tesla recently that could 0 to 60 it.....in two seconds flat.

 

Is that even fuking possible?.....

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Yes

In this case, under conditions dictated by Tesla, the car MotorTrend tested rocketed from a stop to 60 miles per hour in just 1.98 seconds. It's the quickest 0-60 time MotorTrend has ever achieved in a production car.

By way of comparison a top fuel dragster - the quickest vehicles on the planet - do 0 - 100MPH in 0.8 seconds.

Teslas will be detaching grannies retinas pretty soon.

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the answer will be electric but you will buy the chassis and battery pack as a unit and then the body/passenger holder as another unit giving you many vehicles on a chassis or only one if that is your choice. the motors and running gear without having to contain explosions and the associated heat will last 20+ years. So a family car for the weekend and a work vehicle for the week.  I may be talking out my ass but I am pretty sure this is the way things will go. Self driving will need additions to the road infrastructure beyond training computers to recognize the lines visually to be truly a thing. Especially in higher population centers and traffic density. Self driving will definitely change long distance driving on the interstates though.

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29 minutes ago, Raz&#x27;r said:

I don't think you really need a fast-charger at home. We already had 220 in the garage, ran an extension, hooked up the transformer that came with the car, and done. 

I charge from a 110v outlet in my garage. Sure, it's slow. Some days I won't get a full charge. But generally it works. At the office it's a 220v charger. I've actually never used a DC fast charger, even though the connector is there on the car. 

Slow doesn't matter if I'm sleeping. 

But having access to charging is indeed a problem for apartment dwellers or city-street parkers. 

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3 minutes ago, DarthSailor said:

<snip>

 Self driving will need additions to the road infrastructure beyond training computers to recognize the lines visually to be truly a thing. Especially in higher population centers and traffic density. Self driving will definitely change long distance driving on the interstates though.

That infrastructure is already going in. May already be in a traffic cabinet near you. 

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31 minutes ago, DarthSailor said:

the answer will be electric but you will buy the chassis and battery pack as a unit and then the body/passenger holder as another unit giving you many vehicles on a chassis or only one if that is your choice. the motors and running gear without having to contain explosions and the associated heat will last 20+ years. So a family car for the weekend and a work vehicle for the week.  I may be talking out my ass but I am pretty sure this is the way things will go. Self driving will need additions to the road infrastructure beyond training computers to recognize the lines visually to be truly a thing. Especially in higher population centers and traffic density. Self driving will definitely change long distance driving on the interstates though.

I'm curious how self-driving works when the road is covered with several inches of snow and the lines are no longer visible.

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49 minutes ago, El Mariachi said:

Was talking to a guy in a beach bar band down here a couple weeks ago.....and he told me a good friend of his either owns or test drove a new model Tesla recently that could 0 to 60 it.....in two seconds flat.

 

Is that even fuking possible?.....

Must have been some very sticky tires.  Works out to around 13.3m/s^2 or 1.4g acceleration.  

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Just now, Rain Man said:

Must have been some very sticky tires.  Works out to around 13.3m/s^2 or 1.4g acceleration.  

That's pretty much in the Freckle Remover range.....

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17 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

I'm curious how self-driving works when the road is covered with several inches of snow and the lines are no longer visible.

Or when some guys with a truck have blocked the road and are ad libbing hand signals, whistles and grunts trying to direct traffic over a bit of sidewalk right next to a muddy ditch. I think there are still plenty of edge cases that humans can navigate that will be hard for computers. My vision is that we'll end up with a help desk model. The car or passenger will decide things aren't okay. The car will put itself into a safe mode and call the desk. Some human at the desk will look at the situation and navigate the car through it.

"Your car has been placed in safe mode; the doors and windows are locked for your safety and the help desk has been altered; all of our associates are busy; an available associate will be with you shortly; please stay on the line, your commute is important to us; the temperature in your car is 104F; management has provided complimentary entertainment while you wait; under your seat you will find a crumb from a saltine and a used condom left by the previous guest; thank you for choosing Executive Commutes today; please stay on the line..."

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2 hours ago, Rain Man said:

The drive to create a self-driving car has nothing really to do with owners not having to drive the car.   It will usher in a paradigm shift in vehicle ownership.  If a car can drive itself to your door, and there is a fleet of them available at all times, why would you ever own one?  In the future, you will use an app to order up a car, it will appear at your door, and then you can either drive it or have it drive you wherever you want to go.   

At the end of the day the car will drive to a charging station and charge itself.

Car ownership will be a thing of the past, except for some who just want to own one anyway.  The kids in urban areas are already doing this with rideshare and car-sharing companies like Evo.  Owning cars is expensive and we have already made economic circumstances difficult for young people.

Thank gawd......there's still 120 million of us.....who avoid cities at all costs. I wouldn't move back to Manhattan Beach (where I was born & raised).....if someone gave me a 12 million dollar beach home on the Strand.....:lol:

20210611_193028~2.jpg

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2 hours ago, El Mariachi said:

Was talking to a guy in a beach bar band down here a couple weeks ago.....and he told me a good friend of his either owns or test drove a new model Tesla recently that could 0 to 60 it.....in two seconds flat.

 

Is that even fuking possible?.....

5.4g

See the source image

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1 hour ago, Rain Man said:

Must have been some very sticky tires.  Works out to around 13.3m/s^2 or 1.4g acceleration.  

The car, track and driver were presumably well prepared, but the car has run a sub 10 second quarter mile. 

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6 hours ago, Wet Spreaders said:

I'm calling bullshit on this thread.

The new generation of EVs are faster, more economical to run, cheaper to make and all together better than gas cars. And they are less polluting, if that floats your boat.

Not only that, the technology is now in the hands of the semiconductor guys (the same guys that brought you Moore's Law and computers that double in performance every couple of years). With Silicon Carbide power transistors, new developments in motor magnetics, self-driving features and fast chargers that can get you from 20% to 80% faster than you can say "Grande non-fat latte", there will be no reason not to buy an EV. We are in transition and so there's going to be short term trade offs to consider, but long term the world is clearly and definitively going electric - any current controversy is just BS from mental dinosaurs and the last thrash of the oil companies trying to Philip Morris the gullible old timers into one more V8. Light up, grandpa, the rest of us will enjoy clean power that does not disturb the ambiance of our stereo, while you're turning down your deaf-aid as you crawl away from every stoplight.

 

Um bullshit on your call... 

I am one of those "semiconductor guys" and let's just say that the continued innovations in power electronics, will improve efficiency but never equal that of an ICE running locally. Every time you have to convert, store, retrieve, convert power, you have losses. Some systems are less lossy than others, but batteries are not among them. 

EV's make sense to export pollution from dense areas. If you have an available low pollution power system to recharge, then they might actually reduce it. in the SFBAY that's basically a Nuclear plant at Berkeley Marina or Alcatraz, powering the region. 

They make sense as plug-in Hybrids (I have a Fusion Energi) to allow short travel from overnight/work day charged and long travel from the local ICE, with torque boost from the onboard Electric. 

They would make sense over longer runs, paired with diesel tugs, that run on the Interstate, and daisy chained a bunch of EV's in convoy, with something like bow/stern 2" receiver hitches carrying power. 

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22 minutes ago, warbird said:

5.4g

See the source image

A = dV/dt or 60/2 = 30mph/sec or 44 ft/sec^2 

as 1 G is 32 ft/sec^2 that's a bit less than 1.5G 

Top fuel is going 1000ft in < 4 sec. Since d=1/2 at^2 or 1000 *2 /16 = a ~ 120 FT/SEC^2 OR JUST ABOUT 4G. 

Sticky tires are able to pull coefficients of friction > 1

 

 

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1 hour ago, weightless said:

Or when some guys with a truck have blocked the road and are ad libbing hand signals, whistles and grunts trying to direct traffic over a bit of sidewalk right next to a muddy ditch. I think there are still plenty of edge cases that humans can navigate that will be hard for computers. My vision is that we'll end up with a help desk model. The car or passenger will decide things aren't okay. The car will put itself into a safe mode and call the desk. Some human at the desk will look at the situation and navigate the car through it.

"Your car has been placed in safe mode; the doors and windows are locked for your safety and the help desk has been altered; all of our associates are busy; an available associate will be with you shortly; please stay on the line, your commute is important to us; the temperature in your car is 104F; management has provided complimentary entertainment while you wait; under your seat you will find a crumb from a saltine and a used condom left by the previous guest; thank you for choosing Executive Commutes today; please stay on the line..."

The over the road truck platoon concept: one driver, sleeping in the lead truck, multiple subordinate units i trail, he's there to handle exceptions

 

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3 hours ago, d&#x27;ranger said:

I believe a part of the upcoming infrastructure bill is building more charging stations. Not giving up my F150 anytime soon but SWMBO may be getting one pretty soon.

Self driving? That would benefit a bunch of people I know who won't go after dark because of poor night vision. As our nation ages the problem will only increase.

There is going to be a All Electric F-150...

https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/2022/

As for the driving at night, maybe back to the Cinderella license...

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In high end apartment buildings we are now putting in charging stations at every stall.  Market driven.

Soon that will apply to every stall in every garage we design.  By then it will be code driven.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Left Shift said:

In high end apartment buildings we are now putting in charging stations at every stall.  Market driven.

Soon that will apply to every stall in every garage we design.  By then it will be code driven.  

 

So this was some time back an article stated that businesses would have charging stations tied into the grid to use the combined battery storage to offset peaks in demand.  Not qualified in that area but since peak power is much more expensive it may well be viable - lower cost to offset the extra infrastructure.

electric F150 - uh, I get a shock when I look at any of them price wise.  A good friend who can afford anything decided to put a deposit on the Tesla truck.  For me, the F150 is long time paid for, will last for many years and suitable for towing, hauling crap or when I need to take a road trip, it's comfy as I am pretty tall.  For around town her car gets twice the mileage, once we go electric it will be the daily driver.

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6 hours ago, Code 2 said:

I'm trying to imagine a surf trip in Baja with an electric vehicle......

<sacrasm font> Yeah couldn't be done. No way. 

 

image.png.9ee81dabb1fd72e355380f7c8c337aad.png

image.png.8059edbdd1b227b2e7b0e24ecf5aadbf.png

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Electric vehicles better happen.  Up here in BC (Big Clearcuts) we are building a $20B geologically-sketchy hydro project without a current demand for the power it will produce.   Speculation is that we will need it when everyone switches to electric cars and runs their house on a heat pump.  Without that additional demand, we just burnt $20B in taxpayer dollars for no reason.

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The real driver for electric will be high gas prices and lower vehicle purchase prices.  When I last did the analysis, the amount of fuel you could purchase for the extra 15-20K cost of an electric vehicle buys one hell of a lot of fuel.  Even taking government subsidies on vehicle purchase and additional maintenance on ICE into account, the economics were still in favour of ICE.  I hope that changes soon.

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I think self driving cars except for highways, are a bit of a pipe dream. Way too much complexity in real world situations. I get that they can handle 98% of situations but they don't do well if it is snowing and they can't see lane markers or even signage/lights that are partly covered in snow.

Our strata put in an Level 2 charger. About 10K (trickier because concrete building and it had to include a billing apparatus). We can only charge by the hour due to current laws, not by the kW. Stupid Canada. It becomes a selling feature for the building as a desirable amenity.

We have 42 parking spaces, not all are filled. We currently have 2 pure EVs in the building right now. Anybody bet that we won't have 5 or so in the next few years? 

 

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3 hours ago, DarthSailor said:

the answer will be electric but you will buy the chassis and battery pack as a unit and then the body/passenger holder as another unit giving you many vehicles on a chassis or only one if that is your choice.

That's (or similar) been tried a few times - with resultant abject failure being the only outcome.

One that springs to mind.

http://speedhunters-wp-production.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/23123236/30248-source-1200x800.jpg

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48 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

The real driver for electric will be high gas prices and lower vehicle purchase prices.

As with everything - it always comes down to money.

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6 hours ago, White Lightning2 said:

This thread got me wondering.

How long til someone gets the bright idea to set up warehouses of batteries with a hoist out front.

You drive in and a crew lifts car and swaps batteries and your out the door in 15 minutes.

We will finally have come full circle back to full service stations!!

 

WL

If it's easy to swap the batteries, it will be easy to steal the batteries.

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5 hours ago, DarthSailor said:

the answer will be electric but you will buy the chassis and battery pack as a unit and then the body/passenger holder as another unit giving you many vehicles on a chassis or only one if that is your choice. the motors and running gear without having to contain explosions and the associated heat will last 20+ years. So a family car for the weekend and a work vehicle for the week.  I may be talking out my ass but I am pretty sure this is the way things will go. Self driving will need additions to the road infrastructure beyond training computers to recognize the lines visually to be truly a thing. Especially in higher population centers and traffic density. Self driving will definitely change long distance driving on the interstates though.

I dunno what backwoods planet you live on, but computers here can read road signs faster and from further away than you (or any person with 20/20 eyesight) can.

And they obey them, unless programmed not to.

That was the biggest complaint, and people complained LOUDLY, about Google's self-driving cars. They go the speed limit! WTF?!?

- DSK

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1 hour ago, slap said:

If it's easy to swap the batteries, it will be easy to steal the batteries.

If you can afford the forklift to move it around, yes.  Tesla E85 battery pack is 1200 lb.

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3 hours ago, LionessRacing said:

A = dV/dt or 60/2 = 30mph/sec or 44 ft/sec^2 

as 1 G is 32 ft/sec^2 that's a bit less than 1.5G 

Top fuel is going 1000ft in < 4 sec. Since d=1/2 at^2 or 1000 *2 /16 = a ~ 120 FT/SEC^2 OR JUST ABOUT 4G. 

Sticky tires are able to pull coefficients of friction > 1

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gee_force#:~:text=The steeper the bank%2C the greater the g-forces.,theorem yields a g-force of 5.4 g.

" Since d=1/2 at^2 or 1000 *2 /16 = a ~ 120 FT/SEC^2 OR JUST ABOUT 4G."  That is good AND accurate over the 1000 ft but the Wiki link above specifies a section of that 1000 ft.  Regardless how/where you want to measure it Top Fuel cars are some incredibly developed 1/4 mile (1000 ft) machines!!!

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38 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

 

That was the biggest complaint, and people complained LOUDLY, about Google's self-driving cars. They go the speed limit! WTF?!?

- DSK

Kids chasing balls into the street don't know 25 from 40.

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1 hour ago, Steam Flyer said:

That was the biggest complaint, and people complained LOUDLY, about Google's self-driving cars. They go the speed limit! WTF?!?

That is actually an issue with the cruse control in my car, if i set it at 5 over the actual speed is about 1 under.  It would piss me off no end if the car is reading correct but doing an actual 6 under because it's reading the signs.

Fix that first please.

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