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If you're vaccinated, you present less of a public health risk


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Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to the media following Friday’s national cabinet meeting.

“So if you get vaccinated, there will be special rules that apply to you. Why? Because if you’re vaccinated, you present less of a public health risk. You are less likely to get the virus. You are less likely to transmit it,” Mr Morrison told reporters on Friday night.

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As a doubly jabbed Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinee (is that a word?) I like to think that I am less of a public health risk.

I also like to think that I am less likely to get the virus or even transit it (or get sick with it).

 

So far, so good. But then what?

I'd appreciate some real world insight on how the Delta variant and the very possible offspring are going to prolong this pandemic.

I'd be even more interested in how to shorten the pandemic, preferably without dismembering anti-vaxxers and bludgeoning them to death with their own extremities?

Thanks. :)

 

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17 minutes ago, Grog said:

As a doubly jabbed Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinee (is that a word?) I like to think that I am less of a public health risk.

I also like to think that I am less likely to get the virus or even transit it (or get sick with it).

 

So far, so good. But then what?

I'd appreciate some real world insight on how the Delta variant and the very possible offspring are going to prolong this pandemic.

I'd be even more interested in how to shorten the pandemic, preferably without dismembering anti-vaxxers and bludgeoning them to death with their own extremities?

Thanks. :)

 

Um, the antvaxxers and refusers don't care about being public health risks. Or at least they care less about that than whatever their own concerns are. 

I just hope Delta is the worst variant we get. 

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2 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

.... I just hope Delta is the worst variant we get. 

:lol:      :lol:   

To be honest, I hope so too. But that doesn't seem to be the way Nature works, and so far, we humans have been too dumb to take the easy path.

If the USA's CoVid death total does not top  a million, I'll be pleasantly surprised. We could be in for an extreme test of just exactly how good the vaccines really are.

- DSK

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So in Safeway this morning, every customer was masked. A difference from last week when few were. No sign on the door, no mandate. Selectivity bias...high vax area. 

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20 hours ago, Mid said:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison speaks to the media following Friday’s national cabinet meeting.

“So if you get vaccinated, there will be special rules that apply to you. Why? Because if you’re vaccinated, you present less of a public health risk. You are less likely to get the virus. You are less likely to transmit it,” Mr Morrison told reporters on Friday night.

So are you supporting or dismissing Scomo statement?

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18 hours ago, Grog said:

I also like to think that I am less likely to get the virus or even transit it (or get sick with it).

I thought so, too.  But now it looks like the vaccinated are still likely to transmit the virus.

Study: Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as others

In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

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24 minutes ago, Jules said:

I thought so, too.  But now it looks like the vaccinated are still likely to transmit the virus.

Study: Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as others

In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

Right.  But chance of vaxxed person getting the break through infection much lower than unvaxxed covidiot

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36 minutes ago, The Dark Knight said:

So are you supporting or dismissing Scomo statement?

supporting I thought

28 minutes ago, Jules said:

I thought so, too.  But now it looks like the vaccinated are still likely to transmit the virus.

Study: Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as others

In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

now I'm not so sure

1 minute ago, Clove Hitch said:

Right.  But chance of vaxxed person getting the break through infection much lower than unvaxxed covidiot

now I'm thoroughly confused . :(

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2 minutes ago, Mid said:

supporting I thought

now I'm not so sure

now I'm thoroughly confused . :(

people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

 

IF you get break through infection.  IF. 

Chance of vaxxed person getting break through is how much lower than unvaxxex covidiot?

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9 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

 

IF you get break through infection.  IF. 

Chance of vaxxed person getting break through is how much lower than unvaxxex covidiot?

now I'm back to happy :)

I'm half vaxed with Astra ...

had all the shots way back in school , there was no anti then .

very confused by the selfish who claim it's their right , we live together so must look out for each other .

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The issue with the breakthroughs isn't that they increase spread. As Clove Hitch points out, breakthroughs aren't common enough to move that needle.

The issue also isn't that you'll be hospitalized or die, because the vaccine will very likely protect you from serious disease.

The issue is that every breakthrough infection applies selective pressure on the virus to escape immunity. We do not want a variant that makes our vaccines ineffective and it's the breakthrough infections that could give rise to that eventuality.

If you're vaccinated, keep masking up indoors and keep social distancing. 

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11 minutes ago, IStream said:

The issue with the breakthroughs isn't that they increase spread. As Clove Hitch points out, breakthroughs aren't common enough to move that needle.

The issue also isn't that you'll be hospitalized or die because the vaccine will very likely protect you from serious disease.

The issue is that every breakthrough infection applies selective pressure on the virus to escape immunity. We do not want a variant that makes our vaccines ineffective and it's the breakthrough infections that could give rise to that eventuality.

If you're vaccinated, keep masking up indoors and keep social distancing. 

Bingo

If you are fully vaccinated, AND IF you get exposed, AND IF the virus temporarily overwhelms your immune system enough to cause a "breakthrough infection" with symptoms, THEN you are just as likely to spread the virus as an unvaccinated person.

Each of those AND IF statements knock 95+% off the odds of it happening. [edit for accuracy]... that figure may be too high, I have not seen a study result on this exact number; but it does reduce the odds significantly.

However, if they all occur, the virus you are spreading is more likely to be a new variant that can elude/deceive the human immune system such that it renders vaccines ineffective. Bad idea!

Does this help, I really don't want to add to the confusion.

- DSK

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7 minutes ago, IStream said:

The issue with the breakthroughs isn't that they increase spread. As Clove Hitch points out, breakthroughs aren't common enough to move that needle.

The issue also isn't that you'll be hospitalized or die, because the vaccine will very likely protect you from serious disease.

The issue is that every breakthrough infection applies selective pressure on the virus to escape immunity. We do not want a variant that makes our vaccines ineffective and it's the breakthrough infections that could give rise to that eventuality.

If you're vaccinated, keep masking up indoors and keep social distancing. 

People pointing out that a coronavirus is much more stable than, say, HIV and thus less likely to escape immunity.  Thoughts?

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23 minutes ago, Mid said:

supporting I thought

now I'm not so sure

now I'm thoroughly confused . :(

People here will post the same quotes to prove the opposite point. Posting an epidemiologist making this statement suggests support whilst posting Scomo suggests disagreement. Especially the posters who are so blinded by politics that they are incapable of conceding their sides mistakes and the other sides successes.

 

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5 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

People pointing out that a coronavirus is much more stable than, say, HIV and thus less likely to escape immunity.  Thoughts?

Less likely * 200,000,000 potential breakthroughs = ?

Corona's stability relative to other viruses is some comfort but the problem is the large numbers involved. It's a random process. Even with low mutation rate, if you give it enough shots on goal the ball will eventually go in.

 

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2 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

 

IF you get break through infection.  IF. 

Chance of vaxxed person getting break through is how much lower than unvaxxex covidiot?

Vax 85% effective, at least Pfizer Moderna said to be.  But even if it's 50% against infection it's better to have a vaccinated population and be vaccinated. 

Exposed is not infected. Those Provincetown stories are talking about the infected sick vaccinated, not ALL vaccinated people in town then. 

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6 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

Vax 85% effective, at least Pfizer Moderna said to be.  But even if it's 50% against infection it's better to have a vaccinated population and be vaccinated. 

Exposed is not infected. Those Provincetown stories are talking about the infected sick vaccinated, not ALL vaccinated people in town then. 

My hospital is starting to get more COVID admits daily.  It seems that other floors are trying to shovel all their COVID to my progressive care/cardiac floor.  So today charge nurse had spirited discussion with doc and house supervisor because med-surge wanted to give us a COVID+ with mild hypertension.   So a compromise was reached and I was dispatched to push a one time cardiac med and monitor then return. Pleasant pt in for something totally unrelated to COVID.  Had Pfizer in Feb.   

I can tell you COVID is not touching pt whatsoever at this point.  Room air.   Afebrile.  Etc.    

The only pts in my hospital that have COVID and are actually sick from it are unvaxxed.   But it is kinda crazy.  I have worked 12s the last three days and literally every day we have gotten more COVID pts.   The Republican voting block is going to take a bit of a hit from the Delta variant. 

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1 minute ago, Clove Hitch said:

My hospital is starting to get more COVID admits daily.  It seems that other floors are trying to shovel all their COVID to my progressive care/cardiac floor.  So today charge nurse had spirited discussion with doc and house supervisor because med-surge wanted to give us a COVID+ with mild hypertension.   So a compromise was reached and I was dispatched to push a one time cardiac med and monitor then return. Pleasant pt in for something totally unrelated to COVID.  Had Pfizer in Feb.   

I can tell you COVID is not touching pt whatsoever at this point.  Room air.   Afebrile.  Etc.    

The only pts in my hospital that have COVID and are actually sick from it are unvaxxed.   But it is kinda crazy.  I have worked 12s the last three days and literally every day we have gotten more COVID pts.   The Republican voting block is going to take a bit of a hit from the Delta variant. 

I posted last week that the 2 hospitals where I am on staff/affiliated are seeing substantial uptick in covid admissions. I started bringing forward some of my surgeries in case some procedures get put on hold again like last year.  It is not only covid patients who get affected but also other patients who have procedures delayed because covid takes capacity. For example, we rarely if ever use a ventilator in my ASC but we need one available just in case.  In Spring 2020, they were all in use so we could not operate.

Meanwhile I saw this on Bloomberg. It is slightly different from the data I follow.


 

Quote

 

Florida reported 21,683 new cases on Friday, breaking a daily record for the entire pandemic, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The state’s previous one-day record was more than 19,100 in early January, according to CDC data. As the highly infectious delta variant has spread around the U.S., new infections in Florida have skyrocketed over the last month, from a low near 1,000 new daily cases last month.

 

 

The vast majority of cases in our hospital are Democrat because I live in a strongly blue state.  The virus is totally disinterested in who you voted for.  The political shit is irrelevant where I live and work. In fact here, Republicans are more likely to get vaccinated than Democrats and you can see that in the town by town data.. We are 63.3% vaccinated . There is a direct correlation with vaccination rates with towns with a higher % of Republican voters. It is much more along the lines of ethnic background, and socio-economic position. Wealthy, educated white people are getting vaccinated.  The less well off and frankly more vulnerable minority populations dont trust the vaccine yet.  If the states started releasing data on vaccination rates by socio-economic strata, I think the results would be a horrifying indictment on the division between wealthy and poor. 

On top of that, the virus is breaking through some of the vaccinated.  Delta is clearly incredibly infectious. 

 

 

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Here is a depressing statistic for you.  In the last 2 days, more people tested positive for covid in the State of Florida than tested positive in Australia over the entire pandemic. 

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

Here is a depressing statistic for you.  In the last 2 days, more people tested positive for covid in the State of Florida than tested positive in Australia over the entire pandemic. 

Gosh. I wonder why.

 

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1 hour ago, EYESAILOR said:

Here is a depressing statistic for you.  In the last 2 days, more people tested positive for covid in the State of Florida than tested positive in Australia over the entire pandemic. 

No one I know exists in that cult.

Why do they find life so scary that they reject knowledge?

Like a small child who covers their eyes and pretend that they have disappeared because they can't see, such is the intelligence.

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13 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

Gosh. I wonder why.

 

This is the same guy who is trying to distract his supporters from the fact that he is being investigated for sex with a 17 year old, accepting prostitutes in exchange for political favors , charging female escorts to his campaign expenses and other weird and un savory stuff.  He blames a big tech and media conspiracy. He is so full of it.  Big tech companies really dont care about him.

But come what may, when he gets sick or when his parents get sick,  healthcare workers and physicians will roll up their sleeves and take care of them , and risk their personal health to do so.

I truly dislike this kind of person .

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56 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

This is the same guy who is trying to distract his supporters from the fact that he is being investigated for sex with a 17 year old, accepting prostitutes in exchange for political favors , charging female escorts to his campaign expenses and other weird and un savory stuff.  He blames a big tech and media conspiracy. He is so full of it.  Big tech companies really dont care about him.

But come what may, when he gets sick or when his parents get sick,  healthcare workers and physicians will roll up their sleeves and take care of them , and risk their personal health to do so.

I truly dislike this kind of person .

As I've said before, under normal circumstances that's the honorable position to take. Under triage conditions, medical professionals can and should take into account the patient's path to disease and their likelihood to do harm to the public good after recovery in deciding how to allocate scarce resources. We don't give lung transplants to smokers. We shouldn't be favoring anti-vax/anti-mask patients over those who've done everything they can to prevent disease. 

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On 7/31/2021 at 4:25 PM, Jules said:

I thought so, too.  But now it looks like the vaccinated are still likely to transmit the virus.

Study: Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as others

In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

I've read about this.

As much as the vaccination has upped my chances of not getting terminally ill, it is not "digital", especially in a still evolving situation.

When I got my first shot, it definitely felt like relief. But I still kept my routines to avoid catching the bug, i.e. masks and distancing and I will keep them as thanks to Delta and Herd Mentality we are seeing a pretty obvious fourth wave building in Europe, just a little steeper and a little earlier than the third wave last summer.

On the other hand, with family, friends and even colleagues vaccinated, we are pretty much back to the old normal (fuck the "new" normal) and enjoy life in this inner circle. I do miss concerts, though.

Let's not forget, this whole Covid thing is really young, just over 18 months and counting. Having a number of working vaccines and pretty simple protective measures in such short order is unheard of and pretty damn impressive. I'll keep the guard up and I will not die of my or other's stupidity, as far as this virus is concerned.

 

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2 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

If you don't get exposed, you can't get infected.

- DSK

More evidence coming out all the time - if you're vaccinated, you might get the virus, but you don't get really sick, or sick at all.

I'm well over the anti-vax people. Stupidity has consequences.

FKT

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I still can't work out by what percentage , if any, fully vaccinated people lower the chances of transmission. Guess we're still finding out. 

Delta = nasty. Gov advice up here is tightest lockdown rules since this thing kicked off. 

Simple crude logic. Remove an ignition source, no fire.  

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12 hours ago, Fah Kiew Tu said:

More evidence coming out all the time - if you're vaccinated, you might get the virus, but you don't get really sick, or sick at all.

I'm well over the anti-vax people. Stupidity has consequences.

FKT

Isn't it interesting the people who are crying about vaccines and mask wearing are the very same people causing the return to a serious pandemic.

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In Hawaii, which has 60% vaccinated and requires vaccinated or tested tourists: https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/gov-david-ige-state-health-director-to-discuss-recent-surge-in-covid-19-infections/

"25% of cases are children.

6 in 10,000 are odds of fully vaccinated getting infected (539 people out of 826,289 fully vaccinated Hawaii residents)

300 in 10,000 are their odds of unvaccinated getting infected"

539 is a problem for them because they have limited healthcare capacity especially on the neighbor islands.

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12 hours ago, shaggybaxter said:

I still can't work out by what percentage , if any, fully vaccinated people lower the chances of transmission. Guess we're still finding out. 

Delta = nasty. Gov advice up here is tightest lockdown rules since this thing kicked off. 

Simple crude logic. Remove an ignition source, no fire.  

A relationship between population % and R#.

So a virus with an R# of 5 requires 80% vaccinated.

 

That's the maths I saw.

 

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