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As my skipper said in an email after entering 2 Gold Coasts and One Hobart

"My new hobby is entering yacht races, not actually sailing.  So Hobart entry was lodged this morning"

I did point out he didn't enter Hammo so thats one he missed out on

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3 hours ago, Bill E Goat said:

As my skipper said in an email after entering 2 Gold Coasts and One Hobart

"My new hobby is entering yacht races, not actually sailing.  So Hobart entry was lodged this morning"

I did point out he didn't enter Hammo so thats one he missed out on

He should be happy; his sails are lasting much longer these days.

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Probably 70% chance it doesn’t go ahead & then you remember it finishes in Tasmania so make that 95% chance it doesn’t go ahead. 
 

Crazy to think it went down to the wire last year with no vaccine at all  & this year we could be at 60-80% vaccination rate by then & its less likely to happen.
 

We keep renewing our obsession with ZERO covid even if now it’s ZERO covid until 70 & 80% vacc rate. 

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1 hour ago, SPORTSCAR said:

He should be happy; his sails are lasting much longer these days.

His fun, per mile, per $, is way in the red though :) 

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14 hours ago, Jethrow said:

Out around Ball's Pyramid and back! ;)

 

12 hours ago, Frogman56 said:

Believe plan b is for Gabo Island and return.

But we should be moderately sorted covid wise by December.

You guys are assuming Sydney will be out of lockdown

 

image.png.425572931bc0852ebf31796bb6bce83d.png

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9 hours ago, SCANAS said:

If Tokyo can run the Olympics surely Tasmania should let us in! 

Yes they are finely tune athletes not unruly bunch of drunk yachties, or has it changed since the 70"s

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11 hours ago, SCANAS said:

If Tokyo can run the Olympics surely Tasmania should let us in! 

Is the IOC now running the Sydney to Hobart and the  CYC ?

 

Mate the only reason the Olympics have been run this year is the IOC make's 70% + of it's money from the TV rights not because Japan wanted to run them.

 

Pulpit

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13 hours ago, SCANAS said:

If Tokyo can run the Olympics surely Tasmania should let us in! 

The olympics was deeply unpopular with locals in Japan, and if more of those fuckwit's who try to get in into Tassie from NSW without proper permission, then the chances are even slimmer. IMO I think you would need at least a month to 6 weeks of no community transition and a bloody high rate of vaccinations. There will be a lot of pressure to open up though for Christmas. 

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9 minutes ago, vokstar said:

 IMO I think you would need at least a month to 6 weeks of no community transition and a bloody high rate of vaccinations. 

Just stay home for at least a month to 6 weeks of no community transmission after we have left if you are that worried. 44% of Australia has had one dose. Time to open, not stay closed. 

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Well the CYCA is right about one thing, you can't let the IMOCA 60s in the race looking at the Fastnet right now.

Apiva is heading for 824 miles in 48 hours and 15 miles behind a boat that rates 2.149.

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1 hour ago, Livia said:

Well the CYCA is right about one thing, you can't let the IMOCA 60s in the race looking at the Fastnet right now.

Apiva is heading for 824 miles in 48 hours and 15 miles behind a boat that rates 2.149.

Impressive hey! You’d think they’d beat 70-80’rs but riding a 125’ ass & ahead of Rambler 88 is pretty cool neither of which are not bad boats for the angle. 

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2 minutes ago, SCANAS said:

Impressive hey! You’d think they’d beat 70-80’rs but riding a 125’ ass & ahead of Rambler 88 is pretty cool neither of which are not bad boats for the angle. 

Must be those autopilots hey!

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On 8/8/2021 at 12:16 AM, SCANAS said:

If Tokyo can run the Olympics surely Tasmania should let us in! 

IOC ran the Olympic$, Tokyo had little to do with it apart from being the venue.

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The electability of the Tasmanian Premier is directly related to him keeping the moat (Bass Strait) in place.

Don't see that changing.

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20 hours ago, Livia said:

The electability of the Tasmanian Premier is directly related to him keeping the moat (Bass Strait) in place.

Don't see that changing.

Yeah Premiers of strict lockdown states like WA & QLD were returned but the tide is turning now. Tasmania is a decade behind though, so they’ll be the last to change tacks. 

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So if the Sydney isn't going ahead, who from Melbourne or Queensland is gonna come down and have a crack at a Launceston or West Coaster Race? 

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I'm going against popular opinion and voting for optimism that the Hobart will proceed, no restrictions. 

I say this on the basis of vaccination rates rising across Australia. Tassie is actually the highest state for vaccination rates across their population, albeit a small population. 

Get the boat ready to go south I say. 

Blindly optimistic, maybe, but it is better than hopeless pessimism in my opinion. 

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Don't think that Tasmania has a first world health care system.

At the start of this there were only 9 ventilators in the whole state.

There has ben one new hospital built since 1959 from memory.

and that was one that an Co vid outbreak last year

No govt will put the oldest population in the country try at risk.

Hobart will be very unlikely unless NSW gets completely clean

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22 hours ago, Fintho said:

So if the Sydney isn't going ahead, who from Melbourne or Queensland is gonna come down and have a crack at a Launceston or West Coaster Race? 

Problem is this, I have been trying to my powerboat back from Tas for a few months now.

with lockdowns you have to run the risk of steaming almost the entire length of NSW coast without shelter if it turns to crap.

You could shelter but them you can't enter Old and you get 14 days quarantine even if you can.

So you have to stay at sea regardless weather.

Not smart.

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There is another issue, even if vaccinated, you hop on a boat with a positive, chances of getting infected by Hobart.

About %100.

At least you would want proof everyone on the boat is vaccinated and ideally negative in the days before the start.

Your call

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40 minutes ago, darth reapius said:

The only way it happens is if 80% of people in Australia are vaccinated by then.

idle curiosity asks where the 80 figure comes from ?

most sources indicate 70 to move forward on the road map .

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32 minutes ago, Mid said:

idle curiosity asks where the 80 figure comes from ?

most sources indicate 70 to move forward on the road map .

Last I saw, road-map phase 3 was 70%, phase 4 was 80%

phase 3 was reduced lock-downs etc, phase 4 was removal of all border closures...

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1 hour ago, Mid said:

idle curiosity asks where the 80 figure comes from ?

most sources indicate 70 to move forward on the road map .

Tracking the Covid-19 vaccine rollout in Australia
Showing the number of Australians that are fully vaccinated, the federal government's original rollout goal and the 70% and 80% vaccination thresholds set by the government. If the current average rate of 102.0k second doses per day continues, Australia will vaccinate 80% of the 16+ population around 04/12/2021. The government's Operation Covid Shield document suggests the vaccinating 80% of the population aged 16 and over is achievable by December 2021. Last updated 12 August, 2021
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11 hours ago, Ripple Rider said:

I'm going against popular opinion and voting for optimism that the Hobart will proceed, no restrictions. 

I say this on the basis of vaccination rates rising across Australia. Tassie is actually the highest state for vaccination rates across their population, albeit a small population. 

Get the boat ready to go south I say. 

Blindly optimistic, maybe, but it is better than hopeless pessimism in my opinion. 

Not a hope in hell. The country is run by a pack of scared shit fucking retards. 

1 case and Canberra is locked down. FFS

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11 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

Not a hope in hell. The country is run by a pack of scared shit fucking retards. 

1 case and Canberra is locked down. FFS

1 Case in Sydney in early June.  We know who he was, just an ordinary joe earning a living.  Fast forward 8 weeks and thousands of infections and dozens of deaths have ensued.  Gold standard contact tracing in NSW has hit the wall with this volume of infections and we are on the edge of a precipice.  Get a sense of perspective dude.

 

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13 hours ago, The Dark Knight said:

i fucking retard. 

I fixed your sentence for you.

I did read something the other day comparing Covid to Glitter.

If one person does some artwork with Glitter, how many people end up with glitter on them?

I thought it was a good way to explain it to simple people so hope you appreciate it. 

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10 hours ago, DickDastardly said:

1 Case in Sydney in early June.  We know who he was, just an ordinary joe earning a living.  Fast forward 8 weeks and thousands of infections and dozens of deaths have ensued.  Gold standard contact tracing in NSW has hit the wall with this volume of infections and we are on the edge of a precipice.  Get a sense of perspective dude.

 

Gladys is living with the virus but calling it a lockdown. 

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16 hours ago, SCANAS said:

Gladys is living with the virus but calling it a lockdown. 

We've no idea to be truthful.  Gladys repeats the slogan "Delta is a game changer" frequently, but thus far hasn't explained how she's actually changed the game to suit.

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2 hours ago, vokstar said:

Looking less and less likely.. case numbers are still rising rapidly nearly 500 today and all of NSW is in lockdown come 5pm

That’s ok. It’s only 14 days to flatten the curve…

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It doesn't look possible at this stage. The virus is out of control in NSW for a start. There are parts of the community that don't believe in the virus and always have large family gatherings because it's their religion despite the rules. And would you want to sail to Hobart and then not get off the boat for a day or two? Not me. After 4 days and nights in Bass Strait I always look forward to land and some beers at the Customs House. :D

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6 hours ago, terrafirma said:

... would you want to sail to Hobart and then not get off the boat for a day or two? Not me. After 4 days and nights in Bass Strait I always look forward to land and some beers at the Customs House. :D

A shower at the very least!

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I still optimistically say if the jab rates get high enough, we will race to Hobart, enjoy a few beers/rums etc and one those rather ordinary scallop pies. 

Australia, just get jabbed, and get on with life FFS! 

I for one do not want to live in a country paralysed with the fear of living with covid to a point where life ceases as we know it. At the moment we are simply existing, this is not living.

Yep some States have no cases and enjoy 'normal life' but is it really 'normal'? Approximately 30% of Australian population are born overseas according the the Aus Bureau of Statistics and probably many will want to travel overseas at some point for family reasons and then return to Australia. Many Australians regardless of current freedoms or lack and regardless of there place of birth will want to travel interstate for recreation, family, business etc. 

Sure, keep restrictions up, borders up until the vaccination rates get higher but then look at other measures of covid, not simply case numbers.

So, yes, I'm still optimistic S2H will proceed because even with the ridiculous state parochialism, the void of federal leadership and irrational fear we must continue to Live Life, not simply exist. 

Are we Australia, or are we 8 different nations on one big Island?

Rant over for a while. 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Ripple Rider said:

I still optimistically say if the jab rates get high enough, we will race to Hobart, enjoy a few beers/rums etc and one those rather ordinary scallop pies. 

Australia, just get jabbed, and get on with life FFS! 

I for one do not want to live in a country paralysed with the fear of living with covid to a point where life ceases as we know it. At the moment we are simply existing, this is not living.

Yep some States have no cases and enjoy 'normal life' but is it really 'normal'? Approximately 30% of Australian population are born overseas according the the Aus Bureau of Statistics and probably many will want to travel overseas at some point for family reasons and then return to Australia. Many Australians regardless of current freedoms or lack and regardless of there place of birth will want to travel interstate for recreation, family, business etc. 

Sure, keep restrictions up, borders up until the vaccination rates get higher but then look at other measures of covid, not simply case numbers.

So, yes, I'm still optimistic S2H will proceed because even with the ridiculous state parochialism, the void of federal leadership and irrational fear we must continue to Live Life, not simply exist. 

Are we Australia, or are we 8 different nations on one big Island?

Rant over for a while. 

 

 

If you believe that, I've got this amazing bridge I'd like to sell you.

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From what I've been told my a Commodore of a YC, S2H will be announced as cancelled shortly. CYCA risk losing a lot mof $$ as last year with a last minute cancellation. 

I also cant see Premier of Tasmania allowing unvaccinated people into Tas or completely opening the borders. 

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On 8/15/2021 at 12:00 PM, terrafirma said:

It doesn't look possible at this stage. The virus is out of control in NSW for a start. There are parts of the community that don't believe in the virus and always have large family gatherings because it's their religion despite the rules. And would you want to sail to Hobart and then not get off the boat for a day or two? Not me. After 4 days and nights in Bass Strait I always look forward to land and some beers at the Customs House. :D

4 Days and nights ....?    You're on the wrong boats Terra

33 minutes ago, Y88 said:

From what I've been told my a Commodore of a YC, S2H will be announced as cancelled shortly. CYCA risk losing a lot mof $$ as last year with a last minute cancellation. 

I also cant see Premier of Tasmania allowing unvaccinated people into Tas or completely opening the borders. 

CYC don't rely on the S To H to cover operating costs..... they cover that with memberships and slip fees... which are still rolling in

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31 minutes ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

4 Days and nights ....?    You're on the wrong boats Terra

Not necessarily…. I did an S2H too many years ago which took 5 days and nights, arriving in Constitution Dock about 2300 hrs New Year’s Eve. We won our division and beat everyone in the one above…..Plus 7th overall.

1 hour ago, Y88 said:

…..I also cant see Premier of Tasmania allowing unvaccinated people into Tas or completely opening the borders. 

^^^^This.

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So  PIL66

 

What are the jungle drums at the CYC saying about the race this year ?

 

I must say I can't see it happening at this stage even with 80% of both NSW and Tasmania vaccinated.

Pulpit

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1 hour ago, Frogman56 said:

The Federal plan has the 'no border closure' after 80% vacc....

If we get our fingers out, that should be accompli in November?

Frogman,

It's going to be interesting to what happens when we reach 80% Vaccinated. The figures that I saw on sunrise this morning said Tasmania will not reach 80% till mid November at best. 

 

I think that the CYC will want to make a call earlier this year about the race and I think 1 of the factors in having the race go a head is if they can get any distance racing in before the Hobart as a qualifier for safety reasons.

 

After all it's  been 18 months with out any long offshore racing.

 

Pulpit

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The Cabbage Tree in (now) early December is the finalish possibility for qualifying.

And plan B is Gabo & return.. for the actual on 26th.

 

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17 hours ago, pulpit said:

So  PIL66

 

What are the jungle drums at the CYC saying about the race this year ?

 

I must say I can't see it happening at this stage even with 80% of both NSW and Tasmania vaccinated.

Pulpit

They will never give up but I think realistically many don't believe it's possible 

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Yup, 

That never give up idea is the one they have.

One might ask.... If the RORC etc ran a race finishing in another country, with covid rates a multiple of ours, with 355 entries from several countries; and.... we have 5 more months to get our shit together for a 'local' event (Hobart or Gabo return)

WTF?

Why not?

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2 hours ago, Frogman56 said:

Yup, 

That never give up idea is the one they have.

One might ask.... If the RORC etc ran a race finishing in another country, with covid rates a multiple of ours, with 355 entries from several countries; and.... we have 5 more months to get our shit together for a 'local' event (Hobart or Gabo return)

WTF?

Why not?

You make a very good point. In Australia though the COVID Solution of lock down is worse than the Virus problem itself. You simply cannot eliminate the Virus completely so hence we will be in lockdown for the rest of the foreseeable future.! The issue lies with the Governments off course and then the stigma of allowing a virus ridden state into the purity of Tasmania, it simply won't happen. 

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At the present vaccine rates and apparent availability, ~ 80% coverage (say 40M jabs) is achievable by December.

The Tasmanian leadership appears to be more pragmatic than certain other states....

But, worst case, Gabo and back? The Rolex people are evidently in full support.

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Gabo and back I don't think will be very well supported.  If not the Hobart race then no race at all.  There doesn't have to be a race. 

A big part of the attraction is finishing in a different port in a different Sate, then going to a different drinking hole to tell lies to your mates.  If you do Gabo and back, you might as well just go down to the Catholic Youth Club and have a bender there but its not quite the same.  I cant see the interstate and overseas boats making the trek for an out and back race.

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Any decision by the CYCA would (it appears) only be made around 2 weeks prior, by which time most 'outside' competitors boats are in Sydney.

You would lose some for Gabo, but a minority, imo.

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5 hours ago, Frogman56 said:

One might ask.... If the RORC etc ran a race finishing in another country, with covid rates a multiple of ours, with 355 entries from several countries; and.... we have 5 more months to get our shit together for a 'local' event (Hobart or Gabo return)

 

3 hours ago, terrafirma said:

You make a very good point. In Australia though the COVID Solution of lock down is worse than the Virus problem itself. You simply cannot eliminate the Virus completely so hence we will be in lockdown for the rest of the foreseeable future.! The issue lies with the Governments off course and then the stigma of allowing a virus ridden state into the purity of Tasmania, it simply won't happen. 

Leaving aside the differences in localities, vaccination rates, the amount of lockdowns both countries had last year to get us where we are now and that pretty much all of last years offshore racing was cancelled; the race very nearly didn't allow people to stop.

Until 4am on race day any crews coming from France had to isolate for 10 days on arrival, so they were all sailing across and planning to moor up overnight to avoid this requirement, and up until the Friday before the race any UK crews touching French soil had to quarantine on arrival back in the UK, so most crews planned to head straight home and a lot of crews still went straight home anyway. Even then only double vaccinated crew could get off the boat in France, get tested and then be allowed in. Of course the finish being a "short" distance away makes the option of holding the race even without being able to stop possible.

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10 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

JR,

And your point is?

Only that the situation here is very different and not directly comparable, that RORC managed to hold the Fastnet Cherbourg race even with significant obstacles, took a lot of planning and dedication with the support of the local government (Cherbourg that is, who were a race sponsor), just a few weeks before the St Malo race was turn and burn for everyone. If the race had been last summer when we were having our lockdowns it wouldn't have happened, even earlier this year it would have been doubtful.

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Ok, thanks for that.

The RSHYR has solid popular and (Tas) State Government support, reasonably significant economically for Tasmania as well.

There will be a political turning point as the vaccinated proportion gets up toward 70% and the realities of summer holidays impinge. My bet is that by early November the switch is flipped!

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7 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

Ok, thanks for that.

The RSHYR has solid popular and (Tas) State Government support, reasonably significant economically for Tasmania as well.

There will be a political turning point as the vaccinated proportion gets up toward 70% and the realities of summer holidays impinge. My bet is that by early November the switch is flipped!

I hope you're right and the NSW gov gets a grip on this outbreak in time. Having done both races (ironically started 4 of each and finished 3 of each) I'm well aware of the support the races have, I'm just saying using the Fastnet as a comparison is comparing Apples to Holdens. 

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Yes... Though our covid outbreak is a mere blip, especially compared to most of Europe and the UK.

Anyhow, more than 60 entries to date, so the eventual fleet numbers might be around double that if a semblance of normality returns.

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Maybe it is the time to make it the new Sydney to Hobart to Sydney.... would be painful, nevertheless a real bag of weather over the course

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MKF

That will not work, for two main reasons:

1. The race was originally devised to refresh the Tasmanian gene pool, according to my qualified and impeccable sources resident in that territory.

2. Bass Strait and E Tassie coast is seriously unplayable, upwind in hard NE.....real busted boat territory.

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36 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

The RSHYR has solid popular and (Tas) State Government support, reasonably significant economically for Tasmania as well.

Err does it? The popular opinion last year was it was rich boys and their toys. And in no uncertain terms people in Tassie said nupe to it going ahead. I'm not sure about the economic impact of it either. Incidentally last year I was for it, just they need to turn around straight away (maybe after some provisioning) and sod off back to what ever state they came from.. For years that is pretty much what Oats has done anyway... 

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Sydney to Tasman island (to port) to sydney

problem solved

quarantine stop at fortescue bay jetty for more diesel for the 100 footers

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Latest figures out for NSW 633 cases of Covid 19 over the last 24 hours. It's a jump of over 100 cases in 24 hours.

 

It's not looking good at this stage for the Hobart. 

 

Pulpit

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On 8/17/2021 at 5:39 PM, Frogman56 said:

MKF

That will not work, for two main reasons:

1. The race was originally devised to refresh the Tasmanian gene pool, according to my qualified and impeccable sources resident in that territory.

2. Bass Strait and E Tassie coast is seriously unplayable, upwind in hard NE.....real busted boat territory.

It was originally planned as a cruise from Sydney to Hobart but Captain John Illingworth stated he wasn't interested in going unless it was a race. Obviously fancied his chances. Quite rightly, he was the last British winner until Edward Heath came along with his first Morning Cloud

I am starting to have concerns about the RSHYR actually happening. NZL has canned the Sail GP, lockdowns in NSW, TAS being almost paranoid about COVID getting there. SailGP says the AUS event is definitely going ahead though. I don't now what they know that everyone else doesn't.

A there and back S-H-S is really a non starter, no Derwent nail biting challenge to the finish, 1200 miles is more than just double, different victualling, different weather patterns, designs that suit the blast south wouldn't necessarily like the climb back north. In its entire history no one has suggested a return race and gently delivers their boat back to Sydney or wherever and a there and back would smack of panic measures and divide opinions on what to do the following year.

Just blue skying but bottom line is I doubt the Tassie authorities would take the risk for the sake of a few days of parties.

Who knows?

SS

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4 minutes ago, Frogman56 said:

...... nobody, really!

Tis 4 months away though..

I completely agree but the uncertainty will no doubt not be encouraging people to go hell for leather to prepare. From prepping a boat for a previous RSHYC that went on to win ORCi Overall I know cheques for new sails, life rafts have to be serviced and all sorts of other things well in advance of Boxing Day and there will be those who are reluctant to jump without knowing if there is a definite landing place if you know what I mean.

Do you know when the actual cut off date for entries is?

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1 hour ago, Frogman56 said:

Pulpit,

Maybe more cases now engenders greater vaccine efforts for less later?

Frogman,

I would love for you to be right on this one and that the race could go ahead.

 

The way I see it is, The NSW Premier isn't listening to the Chef Health Officered you can see the tension between them and things are getting out of hand. Until the NSW Premier takes a harder stand and really locks the state down like the Victorian Premier did, we are stuck in lockdown for longer. Even in Victoria it took them 8 -10 weeks minimum to lower the Covid cases from 750 ish and they were locked down harder than we currently are. The fact that we will have close to 80% vaccinated by then in NSW's doesn't give us a silver bullet to open up the state. we are running out of time to run the race this year. 

 

The simple facts are  in order to get a boat to the Hobart starting line on boxing day you will need 5 -6 weeks out of lockdown  minimum in order to get both the boat and the crew up too the current safety standard and training. Even the crews will need to spend time on the water practicing boat handling skills.

 

The CYC will not risk lowering the safety standards for the race for legal  and safety issues.  We are overdue a decent southerly buster at the start of the race and no owner is going to sail a boat that isn't fully race ready for the same reasons. 

 

I can see the CYC holding off making a call on the race  till the middle of November and them calling it either way.

 

So mate, I hope you are right and the race can go ahead this year. 

 

Pulpit

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No, the 'back to normalish' threshold is at 80% for people over the age of 12. Quite a high bar, but achievable.

Vaccine supply (over the next three months) is in place.

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On 8/16/2021 at 6:40 PM, Frogman56 said:

The Federal plan has the 'no border closure' after 80% vacc....

If we get our fingers out, that should be accompli in November?

As you may have noticed the last 18 months, the Feds have no control over the states.

I doubt we will get to 80% this year as there will be stragglers. These don't have to be tin foil hat anti-vaxers, but people wary of a vaccine developed in such a short time and there is no understanding of any long term side effects.

I believe that a lot of premiers will struggle to accept Covid in the community even with a high vax rate.

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8 hours ago, Reference said:

Dumb question - but what is Australia's exit strategy from all this? Are they counting on 100% vaccination rates, that seems unlikely.

We have a strategy, whether the states will follow it FIIK

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4 minutes ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

It's gone... we just copped another 4 weeks to our sentence today.... 

You lot may well get to 80% and open up well before the race. The race could potentially happen if the crew are fully vaxed.

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2 hours ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

It's gone... we just copped another 4 weeks to our sentence today.... 

:(

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4 hours ago, PIL66 - XL2 said:

It's gone... we just copped another 4 weeks to our sentence today.... 

 

24 minutes ago, trt131 said:

FFS its months away!  Go and get vaccinated.

trt131,

You are right it's months away, Not really. When you stop and think about it the race is only 4 months away.

 

They are currently saying it will be November before we reach 80% vaccinated in NSW and that only leaves owners 6-7 weeks to get their boats ready at best for the race. 

 

Remember that owners spent big $$$$ last year to get their boats ready for the race only to have it called off at the last minute. I think that you will find that owners are gun shy in spending the $$$$'s  again this year and will hold off and they will need 5-6 weeks to get the boat and crew ready for the race. After all most crews haven't raced offshore for close to 2 years.

 

I hope that the race goes ahead, I think that it's too early to call and green light the race. We just will have to wait a little longer.

 

Pulpit

 

 

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37 minutes ago, eastern motors said:

Wow.  "Merica will probably never get to 80% and everything is open.  People will acquire immunity one way or another.

Pretty much this. Folks that don't want the vaccine also aren't going to accept any more lockdowns. And I - and everyone I know - doesn't feel like locking down any more to protect their dumb asses.

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