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29 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

I accept that both numbers have a use, depending on your audience.  In this thread which is read by an international group we are only interested in the comparisons between the towns or cities and that is only valid when comparing the vaccination percentage of total populations.

The other number of eligible people is only relevant to the people who are administering the vaccination process.

Terry,

If I only told you that our town is 79% vaccinated then you might draw the wrong conclusion , even from your international perspective, that there continues to be vaccine hesitancy where i live. But it would mean that nearly 100% of our residents who are eligible for vaccination have been vaccinated .

As of Sept 17.  97% of our eligible population was either fully or partially vaccinated , which equates to 76% of our total population because we cannot vaccinate 0-11.

Since July 1st, we have had 28 cases of covid with symptoms in 0-11.  this is the largest number of cases in a 10 year group.  the next largest is 40-49 with 21 cases, which is also our lowest vaccination group with 79% fully vaccinated/87% partially vaccinated. 

My feeling is more data is better than less data. 

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here’s a letter from our County Public Health Administrator of San Juan Island Washington State, Dr Frank James. It’s going to be hard here, and we are well vaccinated.  This sounds so much like

IF the consumption in the US actually had anything to do about lack of consumption elsewhere, I'd agree with you. But like starving kids in Africa, whether Johnny finishes his veggies or not, that kid

About 2.5% of health care workers in BC are now on unpaid leave because they are not vaccinated.   They will be terminated if not vaccinated by a certain date.   Our provincial health officer: 

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Ontario Canada, lots of fear here but really our cases are declining though we are seeing new cases daily. Generally pretty happy with the progress and things will likely only get better as the vaccine passport is required now here to access the inside of restaurants, gyms, and other such places. Large pain for those who have to enforce it though. One such restaurant has simply just closed their dining room and will focus on takeout now. 

Very high vaccination rate here.  

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Last night was our first time dining out after the Ontario vaccine passport rule became effective.

Check in was easy - driver's license and copy of the vaccination receipt on our phones.

Tables are still well separated and masks needed if you are not seated.  It was the busiest we have seen the pub since shutdown, my impression is that people are more comfortable going into a place if they know everyone else has been vaccinated and checked.  Seemed almost normal.

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On 9/23/2021 at 3:15 PM, EYESAILOR said:

Terry,

If I only told you that our town is 79% vaccinated then you might draw the wrong conclusion , even from your international perspective, that there continues to be vaccine hesitancy where i live. But it would mean that nearly 100% of our residents who are eligible for vaccination have been vaccinated .

As of Sept 17.  97% of our eligible population was either fully or partially vaccinated , which equates to 76% of our total population because we cannot vaccinate 0-11.

Since July 1st, we have had 28 cases of covid with symptoms in 0-11.  this is the largest number of cases in a 10 year group.  the next largest is 40-49 with 21 cases, which is also our lowest vaccination group with 79% fully vaccinated/87% partially vaccinated. 

My feeling is more data is better than less data. 

How many youth are hospitalized with Covid 

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1 hour ago, slug zitski said:

How many youth are hospitalized with Covid 

Is there a number that you don't care about? Like, a reasonable number, a number that doesn't matter, a who cares they might get hit by a bus number?

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On 9/24/2021 at 1:15 AM, EYESAILOR said:

Since July 1st, we have had 28 cases of covid with symptoms in 0-11.  this is the largest number of cases in a 10 year group

What's your point?  Delta is no different to any other variant in infecting children.  However the chances of hospitalizations and mortality in this group are very very low.

Over 19 months of the pandemic Sweden has had 13 deaths in the under 19 age group.  All had underlying health issues.

Are you now pushing for the unethical vaccination of under 12 year olds?

There is no sound medical reason for vaccinating this age group especially when the favoured vaccines are very poor at limiting transmission.

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2 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

Is there a number that you don't care about? Like, a reasonable number, a number that doesn't matter, a who cares they might get hit by a bus number?

Yes there is a number to care about and that is when the known risk and potential risk of the vaccine is greater than the risk of the disease.  There is no data that supports the vaccination of children.

BTW you limit your chances of being hit by a bus if you don't stand in the middle of the road.

Oh and don't stand outside in a lightning storm with a tinfoil hat on.

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3 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Yes there is a number to care about and that is when the known risk and potential risk of the vaccine is greater than the risk of the disease.  There is no data that supports the vaccination of children.

BTW you limit your chances of being hit by a bus if you don't stand in the middle of the road.

Oh and don't stand outside in a lightning storm with a tinfoil hat on.

So, are you suggesting that masking works, but the vaccines do not?

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7 minutes ago, accnick said:

So, are you suggesting that masking works, but the vaccines do not?

I'm not suggesting either.  The efficacy of the current class of vaccines are comparatively poor at reducing transmission.  However they are effective at reducing the manifestation of serious disease in older and at risk individuals.

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6 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I'm not suggesting either.  The efficacy of the current class of vaccines are comparatively poor at reducing transmission.  However they are effective at reducing the manifestation of serious disease in older and at risk individuals.

oh my, the bullshit flows.

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1 minute ago, NeedAClew said:

How does one "know" [potential risk]? 

I didn't say that.  I distinguished between the known risks and potential risks.  The former have been identified in the short term.

But to date no data is available on the long term risks of the vaccines to children.

You don't need to be a scientist to understand that the developing body of a child is physiologically very  different to that of an adult.  Therefore it follows that potentially the long term risk is different.

Hence the caution being shown by most approval authorities in approving the use of the vaccines on children.  Well those authorities that haven't been hijacked by politics.  It isn't clear that the benefit out weighs the risk.

The UK approval authority the JCVI has said no but they have been overridden by the UK Government.  The latter has made the decision not based on solid health reasons.

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3 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Why do you lie?

It's not a lie but a statement based on reading a great number of research papers.  If you have research that says the vaccines are great at reducing transmission then I'd be happy to read it.

The comment I made is exactly the same as what NZ's Director of Health said on national television this week - not once but several times.  

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1 minute ago, Kate short for Bob said:

It's not a lie but a statement based on reading a great number of research papers.  If you have research that says the vaccines are great at reducing transmission then I'd be happy to read it.

The comment I made is exactly the same as what NZ's Director of Health said on national television this week - not once but several times.  

Compare the "transmissibility" of a non-vaccinated person versus a vaccinated person.

You know, real life.

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9 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Both can transmit the virus both may not.

What is certain is that the vaccination reduces the chances of hospitalisation and death although not eliminate it.  

bury your head in the sand shit-for-brains. Fucking liar.

First off, you need a breakthrough infection, which is rare. I mean, really, really fucking rare:

The CDC is still tracking hospitalizations and deaths of people with breakthrough cases of COVID-19. Through August 2, there were 7,525 breakthrough hospitalizations, or 0.004% of all fully vaccinated Americans. 

Then, they ARE contagious, but for less time than an unvaxx'd (also CDC)

  • Fully vaccinated people with Delta variant breakthrough infections can spread the virus to others. However, vaccinated people appear to spread the virus for a shorter time: For prior variants, lower amounts of viral genetic material were found in samples taken from fully vaccinated people who had breakthrough infections than from unvaccinated people with COVID-19. For people infected with the Delta variant, similar amounts of viral genetic material have been found among both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people. However, like prior variants, the amount of viral genetic material may go down faster in fully vaccinated people when compared to unvaccinated people. This means fully vaccinated people will likely spread the virus for less time than unvaccinated people.
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4 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

bury your head in the sand shit-for-brains. Fucking liar.

First off, you need a breakthrough infection, which is rare. I mean, really, really fucking rare:

The CDC is still tracking hospitalizations and deaths of people with breakthrough cases of COVID-19. Through August 2, there were 7,525 breakthrough hospitalizations, or 0.004% of all fully vaccinated Americans. 

Then, they ARE contagious, but for less time than an unvaxx'd (also CDC)

  • Fully vaccinated people with Delta variant breakthrough infections can spread the virus to others. However, vaccinated people appear to spread the virus for a shorter time: For prior variants, lower amounts of viral genetic material were found in samples taken from fully vaccinated people who had breakthrough infections than from unvaccinated people with COVID-19. For people infected with the Delta variant, similar amounts of viral genetic material have been found among both unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people. However, like prior variants, the amount of viral genetic material may go down faster in fully vaccinated people when compared to unvaccinated people. This means fully vaccinated people will likely spread the virus for less time than unvaccinated people.

None of what the CDC has written contradicts what I have said.  Any disagreement is on the order of magnitude.  In that respect what the CDC is reporting is less than what is being seen in Israel and the UK.

 

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1 minute ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Are you calling NZ's Director of Health a liar?  

I'm calling you a shill for disinformation, a cherry picking bullshitter.

Your own statements are contradictory. You only pass if you get sick (breakthrough for the vaxx'd) and even you state that the vax works to keep you from getting sick. So even your own statements, logically extended, show that the vaxx'd can't pass it as much as the unvaxx'd. Then you slip into bullshit mode. Why?

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As I said the current Covid-19 vaccines are comparatively poor at reducing transmission.  But have a high efficacy at reducing hospitalisations and deaths.  I didn't say they don't reduce transmission.

From a very large study done in the UK:

In April, Public Health England reported the results of a large study of COVID-19 transmission involving more than 365,000 households with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated members.

It found immunisation with either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine reduced the chance of onward virus transmission by 40-60%. This means that if someone became infected after being vaccinated, they were only around half as likely to pass their infection on to others compared to infected people who weren’t vaccinated.

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15 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

As I said the current Covid-19 vaccines are comparatively poor at reducing transmission.  But have a high efficacy at reducing hospitalisations and deaths.  I didn't say they don't reduce transmission.

From a very large study done in the UK:

In April, Public Health England reported the results of a large study of COVID-19 transmission involving more than 365,000 households with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated members.

It found immunisation with either the Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine reduced the chance of onward virus transmission by 40-60%. This means that if someone became infected after being vaccinated, they were only around half as likely to pass their infection on to others compared to infected people who weren’t vaccinated.

Let me help you with this. You are ignoring the part I bolded. Only a very small fraction of people become infected after being vaccinated. .004% in that CDC study. This compared to the fact that sans vaccination, it would be almost impossible to avoid catching it at some point. So it's amazingly effective at preventing spread, because almost NO ONE gets sick!

And even the few people that get sick? Get a 50% reduction in passing the disease. It's EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE in preventing the spread of the disease.

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46 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

So what happened to the Asymptomatic cases?  You know the ones that don't get sick.  

It's been shown many times that they transmit the covid virus. It's one of the reasons this is such a serious threat.

Since you're getting trounced on the anti-vax bullshit you like to push, maybe it's time to switch over to mask bullshit.

New studies of US schools show schools following mask mandates have less than 1/3 the likelihood of a covid outbreak. On the adult front, free masks to villages in Bangladesh show the outbreak numbers at 1/4 of those without.

Oops, maybe you need something besides masks and vax to bullshit about.... oh, I know, SWEDEN!! Just check to see if anybody from Sweden is in the room, first......

- DSK

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2 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Oops, maybe you need something besides masks and vax to bullshit about.... oh, I know, SWEDEN!! Just check to see if anybody from Sweden is in the room, first......

Damn sight more Swedish people in the room compared to 40 USA States.

I'll repeat again I've never promoted not getting vaccinated in fact I've done the opposite.

However we have been all told to "follow the science" yet it appears decisions are  no longer made by "following the science" but for other reasons.

 

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5 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Damn sight more Swedish people in the room compared to 40 USA States.

I'll repeat again I've never promoted not getting vaccinated in fact I've done the opposite.

However we have been all told to "follow the science" yet it appears decisions are  no longer made by "following the science" but for other reasons.

 

Given your poor understanding of the math, I can see why you say that. Doesn't mean you're right.

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40 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

On the adult front, free masks to villages in Bangladesh show the outbreak numbers at 1/4 of those without.

Where in that particular study does it say that?  The study found that the seroprevalence in the villages that got the free masks was 9% less than those that didn't.  The seroprevalence being 0.69% and 0.76% respectively.  There are a number of flaws in that study including a lack of baseline testing before the interventions occurred.

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Where in that particular study does it say that?  The study found that the seroprevalence in the villages that got the free masks was 9% less than those that didn't.  The seroprevalence being 0.69% and 0.76% respectively.  There are a number of flaws in that study including a lack of baseline testing before the interventions occurred.

That’s the Mikey we know… and don’t love

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In other news I was on hold with the Safeway pharmacy for half an hour...let it go out of curiosity because it was on speaker and I was doing other things. Turns out they were slammed vaccinating!  A change from last month. They do Pfizer and my area is offering genuine legit boosters as of today as well as standard fare. 

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Our state is like 3rd worse in the US vaccinated rates, hovering around 40%. Our county is worse yet.

Consideration of mask mandates caused a local college's newly hired president to be fired. A local school board meeting was raided yesterday on the false assumption that mask mandates were being discussed, resulting in a lockdown and several arrests. It's fucking crazy.

Being a state with a constitution right to open carry, and dominated by 2nd amendment advocates, can one of you artistic types please create a poster we can place around town. Like two pictures, one with a needle and one with a gun. The gun one descends to a gun to the head. The needle one to a happy society with ICU beds available and the like, more like it was before coronavirus. 

This is fucked up, growing up with speed kills posters, heroine is bad, needles are bad...

Guess we are what we brought.

More and more breakthrough cases are appearing, fortunately not in ICU, but still scary. Enough to drive one to drinking.

Whoops, nevermind. 

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33 minutes ago, Varan said:

Our state is like 3rd worse in the US vaccinated rates, hovering around 40%. Our county is worse yet.

Consideration of mask mandates caused a local college's newly hired president to be fired. A local school board meeting was raided yesterday on the false assumption that mask mandates were being discussed, resulting in a lockdown and several arrests. It's fucking crazy.

Being a state with a constitution right to open carry, and dominated by 2nd amendment advocates, can one of you artistic types please create a poster we can place around town. Like two pictures, one with a needle and one with a gun. The gun one descends to a gun to the head. The needle one to a happy society with ICU beds available and the like, more like it was before coronavirus. 

This is fucked up, growing up with speed kills posters, heroine is bad, needles are bad...

Guess we are what we brought.

More and more breakthrough cases are appearing, fortunately not in ICU, but still scary. Enough to drive one to drinking.

Whoops, nevermind. 

What state? Which county?

If it is the photograph in your name, it looks stunningly beautiful. The square top main looks interesting as well.

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Bonner county, Idaho. Land of big ticks, crazy people, terrible schools, crappy medical facilities, no jobs, extreme weather, no place any of you should ever, never ever consider moving to. Pick Missoula or Boz Angeles, but not here. There is no more room here for anyone.

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3 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Damn sight more Swedish people in the room compared to 40 USA States.

I'll repeat again I've never promoted not getting vaccinated in fact I've done the opposite.

However we have been all told to "follow the science" yet it appears decisions are  no longer made by "following the science" but for other reasons.

You need to understand what science is, it is a discipline that scientists follow to enhance their knowledge of what ever subject they are following.  On the other hand scientists are people and in the Covid environment the scientific discipline is unable to keep up with the changes to Covid and the various reactions that people have to contain it.

Hence it is only natural that scientists (people) will have different opinions about what the best action is to be taken.  The political decision makers are left in disarray by the lack of scientific agreement so we get all sorts of methods to contain the virus but none are perfect because the science has not been properly developed.

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12 minutes ago, Varan said:

Bonner county, Idaho. Land of big ticks, crazy people, terrible schools, crappy medical facilities, no jobs, extreme weather, no place any of you should ever, never ever consider moving to. Pick Missoula or Boz Angeles, but not here. There is no more room here for anyone.

I did my first Eskimo roll in (on?) Lake Pend Oreille. Other then the goddamned brown bears I love it there.

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22 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

You need to understand what science is, it is a discipline that scientists follow to enhance their knowledge of what ever subject they are following.

No it isn't.  Scientists seek to advance the knowledge of all.

22 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

Hence it is only natural that scientists (people) will have different opinions about what the best action is to be taken.  The political decision makers are left in disarray by the lack of scientific agreement so we get all sorts of methods to contain the virus but none are perfect because the science has not been properly developed.

Again you are wrong.  Science isn't about opinions.  It is about advancing knowledge and understanding through the scientific method.  

  1. Observation - Questioning the unknown;
  2. Research existing knowledge to explain the observation;
  3. Formulate an Hypothesis;
  4. Test with experimentation;
  5. Analyse the data from experimentation to validate or negate hypothesis;
  6. Communicate the results.

Einstein developed many hypotheses - some he was able to prove relatively (deliberate pun) quickly.  His most famous hypothesis - the theory of relativity he published in 1905 after a decade of development with the only observational empirical proof obtained 14 years later.  Even then it wasn't considered conclusive.  It took 103 years and some very large supercomputers to prove his theory in 2008.

The ACIP assessed the data and 16-2 determined that the benefit of giving booster shots to a wider section of the population did not outweigh the risks.

The tragedy of this entire pandemic is that decades of scientific agreement and endeavour was ignored by many Governments purely based on politics.  We now see decisions being made on incomplete data, rushed and non peer reviewed research.

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21 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

No it isn't.  Scientists seek to advance the knowledge of all.

Again you are wrong.  Science isn't about opinions.  It is about advancing knowledge and understanding through the scientific method.  

  1. Observation - Questioning the unknown;
  2. Research existing knowledge to explain the observation;
  3. Formulate an Hypothesis;
  4. Test with experimentation;
  5. Analyse the data from experimentation to validate or negate hypothesis;
  6. Communicate the results.

I never said that "Science isn't about opinions" you did. Your problem is that you think Scientists are science, you are wrong scientists are just people and people have opinions. Science is a discipline which in the Covid environment is not fully developed, that means that scientists have varying degrees of understanding so they have different opinions about where Covid is headed.

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3 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

I never said that "Science isn't about opinions" you did.

 

55 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

Hence it is only natural that scientists (people) will have different opinions about what the best action is to be taken.

??!!

5 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

Science is a discipline which in the Covid environment is not fully developed,

Crap.  Covid-19 is a virus that causes respiratory disease.  The Science disciplines involved have been in existence for more than 100 years.  Covid-19 isn't the first pandemic caused by a virus and won't be the last.  Inferring that the world is battling something mysterious, baffling and without any precedent is erroneous. 

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16 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

 

??!!

Crap.  Covid-19 is a virus that causes respiratory disease.  The Science disciplines involved have been in existence for more than 100 years.  Covid-19 isn't the first pandemic caused by a virus and won't be the last.  Inferring that the world is battling something mysterious, baffling and without any precedent is erroneous. 

If you don't understand that science (methodology) is one thing and scientists (people) are another , I can't help you.

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2 minutes ago, Terry Hollis said:

If you don't understand that science (methodology) is one think and scientists (people) are another , I can't help you.

Scientists are people who follow (presumably) the scientific method to advance knowledge which is underpinned by research, experimentation and data.  The product Scientists produce is not opinion - the scientific method by its very definition does not support opinion.  Scientists may have opinions but a true scientist will always base the advice they give on the data before them not their opinion.

The ACIP advice was given by scientists - CDC Senior Management and the Government has disagreed i.e. they have an opinion and have decided to not follow the science.

In New Zealand we have bad science, bad scientists who give advice based on opinion not science and a Government that says "We are following the advice of the Ministry of Health".  So we have opinions from science advising politicised bureaucrats driving Government decisions.

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3 hours ago, Varan said:

Bonner county, Idaho. Land of big ticks, crazy people, terrible schools, crappy medical facilities, no jobs, extreme weather, no place any of you should ever, never ever consider moving to. Pick Missoula or Boz Angeles, but not here. There is no more room here for anyone.

Many states have Covid issues 

just look at New York

 

According to data provided by New York state, about 85 percent of black residents have not received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine

 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Raz'r said:
11 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Where in that particular study does it say that?  The study found that the seroprevalence in the villages that got the free masks was 9% less than those that didn't.  The seroprevalence being 0.69% and 0.76% respectively.  There are a number of flaws in that study including a lack of baseline testing before the interventions occurred.

That’s the Mikey we know… and don’t love

Still hasn't learned basic math, too. I bet his checkbook is a mess

- DSK

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14 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

What's your point?  Delta is no different to any other variant in infecting children.  However the chances of hospitalizations and mortality in this group are very very low.

Are you now pushing for the unethical vaccination of under 12 year olds?

 

I did not have a point. I merely reported the latest data from our town.

If I was to draw any conclusion, it would be:

1. There is a correlation between positive cases and vaccination rate. The highest incidence of covid at that time was in the unvaccinated cohort 0-11. The next highest incidence was the adult pop with the lower vaccination rate.

2. Delta is clearly more infectious to children and adults than any prior variant.

We have had an update since then. The number of breakthrough cases  has increased .

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9 hours ago, Varan said:

Bonner county, Idaho. Land of big ticks, crazy people, terrible schools, crappy medical facilities, no jobs, extreme weather, no place any of you should ever, never ever consider moving to. Pick Missoula or Boz Angeles, but not here. There is no more room here for anyone.

hah. i dont fall for that. My cousin moved to Idaho 20 years ago and i have visited many times. it is lovely.

About 4 years ago, they moved to NZ. Fortunately they did not sell their home in Boise, because 18 months later they were back. NZ was very nice but Auckland had tough commutes compared to Boise.

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So here is the weekly update from our little town, at at September 23rd.

The good news

is that our eligible population is 90% fully vaccinated and 97% partially vaccinated. Part of that 7% is due to VAMS not recording all 2nd shots.  Our overall population is 77% partially or fully vaccinated, that compares to the state average of 69%  (despite we have more ineligible children 0-11 than the state average).

12-17, 18-24 and 65+ are now all 99%+ vaccinated.  The lowest vaccination rate is 25-44, but even that group is 87%.

We are doing really well on the vaccination program.

The bad news is that last week we had our highest number of cases for a long time.We had 31 cases test positive.

Worryingly, the state data DPH and CTDSS only records 3 cases from our town last week. The DPH data is the data you all see in those national statistics, suggesting under reporting at state and national level. Our town data comes directly from local test centers and doctors. The town seeks to interview each person who tested positive as part of contact tracing and getting info on vaccination status.

Of the 31 positive cases, 25 were interviewed.

Of the 25, 12 were fully vaccinated, 2 were not vaccinated, 11 were unknown.   24 were symptomatic and 1 was asymptomatic.

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, EYESAILOR said:

So here is the weekly update from our little town, at at September 23rd.

The good news

is that our eligible population is 90% fully vaccinated and 97% partially vaccinated. Part of that 7% is due to VAMS not recording all 2nd shots.  Our overall population is 77% partially or fully vaccinated, that compares to the state average of 69%  (despite we have more ineligible children 0-11 than the state average).

12-17, 18-24 and 65+ are now all 99%+ vaccinated.  The lowest vaccination rate is 25-44, but even that group is 87%.

We are doing really well on the vaccination program.

The bad news is that last week we had our highest number of cases for a long time.We had 31 cases test positive.

Worryingly, the state data DPH and CTDSS only records 3 cases from our town last week. The DPH data is the data you all see in those national statistics, suggesting under reporting at state and national level. Our town data comes directly from local test centers and doctors. The town seeks to interview each person who tested positive as part of contact tracing and getting info on vaccination status.

Of the 31 positive cases, 25 were interviewed.

Of the 25, 12 were fully vaccinated, 2 were not vaccinated, 11 were unknown.   24 were symptomatic and 1 was asymptomatic.

 

 

 

The vaccine is not some kinda magic force field that  repels Covid 

the vaccine only fortifies your immune system to help prevent full blown Covid disease 

this fact has been known since the introduction of the experimental  covid    vaccines

to quote Covid positive numbers  is disservice to readers 

there will be positive coveid numbers forever 

during the “pandemic “I have worked in three countries 

only the US is paranoid, reactionary  and political in it Covid  news coverage 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Terry Hollis said:

If you don't understand that science (methodology) is one thing and scientists (people) are another , I can't help you.

You are trying to be sensible arguing with a troll, and she has the kind of scientific understanding produced by someone who has never actually practised. And she simply cannot grasp that in the middle of a serious and world-disrupting pandemic of a novel virus you cannot wait for every aspect of the pandemic, ranging from mask-wearing to vaccine-deployment, to be thoroughly studied in multiple massive studies that have all been peer-reviewed. Sometimes you have to make the best judgements you can based on limited data and limited studies, often from other countries in somewhat different circumstances. At least the US CDC is basing their decisions on a wide variety of evidence, lots of expert opinions, and some sensible policy choices, like wanting to give people the option of a booster shot to avoid symptomatic or worse breakthrough infections that also might result in long covid. I'm all for it.

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9 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

Scientists are people who follow (presumably) the scientific method to advance knowledge which is underpinned by research, experimentation and data.  The product Scientists produce is not opinion - the scientific method by its very definition does not support opinion.  Scientists may have opinions but a true scientist will always base the advice they give on the data before them not their opinion.

 

This is medical science that we are talking about here . The word "opinion" has a technical meaning in medicine.  In the USA a medical opinion is defined as "statements from physicians  or other acceptable medical sources" based upon " substantial evidence".   "Substantial Evidence" is defined as "more than a scintilla of evidence but less than a preponderance of evidence".   In medicine it is rare that we are 100% certain, thus we often have to make diagnosis or recommendations based on substantial evidence .  It is also why we have "second opinions".   The FDA are looking at evidence and trying to determine where the substantial evidence is pointing them. They are all experienced physician experts or research physicians, and they are trained to interpret substantial evidence.  The role of the FDA and its medical advisory panel is to interpret medical data in an objective manner.  There is a difference between an interpretation of medical data and a known scientific fact such as the force of gravity.

In the case of the booster shot, there was substantial data demonstrating that the booster shot improved the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine. In the opinion of the FDA and the FDA advisory panel, the data regarding the risk/benefit for those under the age of 65 who were not in high risk health category or high risk occupational category did not meet the hurdle of "substantial evidence". 

Listening to the meeting there were two questions the experts had . (1) Is the efficacy of the vaccine fading significantly for younger people?  The observation that the vaccine faded in older people made sense as there might be poorer T Cell memory in older patients. But the sample size of the trial (300 in Pfizer trial) and the timing of the studies (2 weeks old for Israel younger population ) was not sufficient in the opinion of several of the experts to make a determination based on substantial evidence that the vaccine had faded for younger people  (2) Many in the panel felt they were not presented with substantial evidence on safety for younger people.

 

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9 hours ago, slug zitski said:

Many states have Covid issues 

just look at New York

 

According to data provided by New York state, about 85 percent of black residents have not received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine

 

 

 

 

You have misread or misunderstood the data.

It indicates roughly 15% of the vaccinated are black.   Not that 15% of the black community are vaccinated.

Big difference.

It could be that only 15% of the community are black, in which case their numbers would be the same as the overall community.

You may note that the data gives roughly the same numbers (actually a bit less)  for the Asian community as the black.  Please don't try to tell me 85% of Asian residents have not received one dose.

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6 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

This is medical science that we are talking about here . The word "opinion" has a technical meaning in medicine.

In practising medicine yes an opinion does have a different meaning.  That's why many patients seek a second opinion.  I turn up to your surgery with a stomach ache.  You ask a serious of diagnostic questions and you do some non invasive tests.  You'll take my blood pressure, check my heart rate, look for any outward signs such as unhealthy pallor.  You may even palpitate my stomach feeling for abnormalities.  You'll ask about my diet and what I've eaten recently and assess in relation to the onset of the pain.  Have you passed blood. You'll have in mind a number of conditions that range from minor to more serious.  Is it the bad curry from two nights ago?  Is it a stomach ulcer?  Is it stomach cancer?

You then present an opinion.  9 times out of 10 you will prescribe some form of medication and say if it hasn't come right in a week come back and we will do some more tests.  If you are a proactive physician you will have taken blood for testing which you can review against your initial opinion (prognosis).

6 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

In the USA a medical opinion is defined as "statements from physicians  or other acceptable medical sources" based upon " substantial evidence".   "Substantial Evidence" is defined as "more than a scintilla of evidence but less than a preponderance of evidence". 

Yes but that is not the basis of Medical Science.  It is the basis on which you as a physician form a prognosis of the condition of someone.  

Medical Science is no different from any other science discipline.  It can't be because it involves many many scientific disciplines who all adhere (or should do) the scientific method.

6 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

The FDA are looking at evidence and trying to determine where the substantial evidence is pointing them. They are all experienced physician experts or research physicians, and they are trained to interpret substantial evidence.  The role of the FDA and its medical advisory panel is to interpret medical data in an objective manner.  There is a difference between an interpretation of medical data and a known scientific fact such as the force of gravity.

Correct.  However they also evaluate the risk of harm and the benefit.  Supposedly without political fear or favour.  Both the CDC ACIP and the FDA committees made recommendations on the evidence before them evaluating the science, risk and benefit of the third booster shot of the Pzifer vaccine.  Their respective managements modified and in the CDC's case overruled their committee.  Presumably the committee's came to the conclusion that the risk/benefit for giving ALL a third booster shot was sufficient to recommend that.  

What science did the CDC and FDA management use to identify grocery stores and teachers being high risk groups?  Have they forgotten about the abattoir/meat workers?

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1 hour ago, Kate short for Bob said:

In practising medicine yes an opinion does have a different meaning.  That's why many patients seek a second opinion.  I turn up to your surgery with a stomach ache.  You ask a serious of diagnostic questions and you do some non invasive tests.  You'll take my blood pressure, check my heart rate, look for any outward signs such as unhealthy pallor.  You may even palpitate my stomach feeling for abnormalities.  You'll ask about my diet and what I've eaten recently and assess in relation to the onset of the pain.  Have you passed blood. You'll have in mind a number of conditions that range from minor to more serious.  Is it the bad curry from two nights ago?  Is it a stomach ulcer?  Is it stomach cancer?

You then present an opinion.  9 times out of 10 you will prescribe some form of medication and say if it hasn't come right in a week come back and we will do some more tests.  If you are a proactive physician you will have taken blood for testing which you can review against your initial opinion (prognosis).

Yes but that is not the basis of Medical Science.  It is the basis on which you as a physician form a prognosis of the condition of someone.  

Medical Science is no different from any other science discipline.  It can't be because it involves many many scientific disciplines who all adhere (or should do) the scientific method.

Correct.  However they also evaluate the risk of harm and the benefit.  Supposedly without political fear or favour.  Both the CDC ACIP and the FDA committees made recommendations on the evidence before them evaluating the science, risk and benefit of the third booster shot of the Pzifer vaccine.  Their respective managements modified and in the CDC's case overruled their committee.  Presumably the committee's came to the conclusion that the risk/benefit for giving ALL a third booster shot was sufficient to recommend that.  

What science did the CDC and FDA management use to identify grocery stores and teachers being high risk groups?  Have they forgotten about the abattoir/meat workers?

I don’t believe a complete list of high-risk workers eligible for boosters has been published. You can pretty much be sure it will extend beyond grocery workers and teachers.

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58 minutes ago, Autonomous said:

Okay, darn those mooses too.

The plural of moose is mice......isn't it?

In our little beach town in North Queensland life is tolerable. We haven't had a single case since the whole thing began.

Everything's open (with QR code check-ins and some crowd limits), no masks required. Most people I know are vax'd. There are the usual handful of loonies who won't do it, at least not until they aren't allowed in anywhere. Our state borders are still closed, to keep those diseased Southern city types out. 

The money we're losing from getting no Southerners is mostly made up by the money from Queenslanders who can't or won't holiday out of  state.

A happy little bubble of unreality......

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17 minutes ago, Happy said:

The plural of moose is mice......isn't it?

In our little beach town in North Queensland life is tolerable. We haven't had a single case since the whole thing began.

Everything's open (with QR code check-ins and some crowd limits), no masks required. Most people I know are vax'd. There are the usual handful of loonies who won't do it, at least not until they aren't allowed in anywhere. Our state borders are still closed, to keep those diseased Southern city types out. 

The money we're losing from getting no Southerners is mostly made up by the money from Queenslanders who can't or won't holiday out of  state.

A happy little bubble of unreality......

Pretty much the same in Tasmania.

Or so I'm told.

FKT

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13 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

This is medical science that we are talking about here . The word "opinion" has a technical meaning in medicine.  In the USA a medical opinion is defined as "statements from physicians  or other acceptable medical sources" based upon " substantial evidence".   "Substantial Evidence" is defined as "more than a scintilla of evidence but less than a preponderance of evidence".   In medicine it is rare that we are 100% certain, thus we often have to make diagnosis or recommendations based on substantial evidence .  It is also why we have "second opinions".   The FDA are looking at evidence and trying to determine where the substantial evidence is pointing them. They are all experienced physician experts or research physicians, and they are trained to interpret substantial evidence.  The role of the FDA and its medical advisory panel is to interpret medical data in an objective manner.  There is a difference between an interpretation of medical data and a known scientific fact such as the force of gravity.

In the case of the booster shot, there was substantial data demonstrating that the booster shot improved the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine. In the opinion of the FDA and the FDA advisory panel, the data regarding the risk/benefit for those under the age of 65 who were not in high risk health category or high risk occupational category did not meet the hurdle of "substantial evidence". 

Listening to the meeting there were two questions the experts had . (1) Is the efficacy of the vaccine fading significantly for younger people?  The observation that the vaccine faded in older people made sense as there might be poorer T Cell memory in older patients. But the sample size of the trial (300 in Pfizer trial) and the timing of the studies (2 weeks old for Israel younger population ) was not sufficient in the opinion of several of the experts to make a determination based on substantial evidence that the vaccine had faded for younger people  (2) Many in the panel felt they were not presented with substantial evidence on safety for younger people.

I accept what you say as it pertains to medicine but can you say that "statements from physicians  or other acceptable medical sources" are scientists operating under science as defined by scientists "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment"

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Norway lifted all distancing regulations yesterday. All schools, restaurants, theaters, sports events etc can operate on maximum capacity.  immigration rules are still in place. Vaccine program mostly finished, all who want vaccine have got it or will have the second jab in near future (yongest age groups). The hospitals will have capacity to treat the un-vaccinated in the future. Denmark did the same two weeks(?) ago. Short hand sailing have got a big boost last two years. Total 850 died in Norway with corona in this epidemic. 

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9 hours ago, Terry Hollis said:

I accept what you say as it pertains to medicine but can you say that "statements from physicians  or other acceptable medical sources" are scientists operating under science as defined by scientists "the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment"

I can't understand your point but stipulate others can.

But some MDs do actual research, publishing in peer reviewed journals. There are also MD/PhD twofers. 

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22 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

I can't understand your point but stipulate others can.

But some MDs do actual research, publishing in peer reviewed journals. There are also MD/PhD twofers. 

I was commenting on eye's explanation about how they arrived at their conclusions, what she described was medical practice, not science. There is nothing to stop medical practitioners from using the scientific method and becoming scientists and some do, but that was not what she was describing.

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In our town we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated.   The Covid ICU is full and additional Covid ICU capacity is being generated in the local hospital - SWMBO is managing a part of the process.  We are receiving patients from other regions who are subsequently passing in our ICU artificially inflating our death rates.   We are not yet cancelling all elective surgical procedures but that is likely coming.  

Vaccine passports are in effect, and must be shown to enter restaurants, gyms, and other discretionary venues.  One dose required until mid-October, then both doses are required.  Over 80% have at least one dose, and the fact that the pandemic continues among the unvaccinated in spite of this is testimony to how easily the delta variant spreads.

Masks are required in indoor public spaces everywhere and people are compliant.   

Kids are in school, but everyone is expecting elementary schools to start closing as delta spreads among the unvaccinated children.  One school in a nearby region has closed already.  Oddly, teachers are not required to be vaccinated - they'd be crazy not to be IMHO and I suspect all but a few are.  

 

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On 9/25/2021 at 9:07 AM, Kate short for Bob said:

Damn sight more Swedish people in the room compared to 40 USA States.

I'll repeat again I've never promoted not getting vaccinated in fact I've done the opposite.

However we have been all told to "follow the science" yet it appears decisions are  no longer made by "following the science" but for other reasons.

 

You and your elk have said this since day one of the pandemic, "scientists aren't following the science".

First it was questioning the existence of covid,

"the cure can't be worse than the disease"

then its transmissibility and infectivity,

then its deadliness,

then the effectiveness of masks, social distancing and other mitigation measures,

then border closures,

then vaccines,

then continued social distancing mandates,

then vaccination mandates (hint, they don't work if not enough people get vaxxed)

 

Round and round and round you go. Each one knocked over time and time again. Sweden is held up as the way to handle this pandemic, only to fall victim to it eventually.

 

Variants evolve that move the goalposts because the infection is free to infect and evolve because of people like you that try to wiggle out of reality and then have the audacity to say that scientists aren't following the science. Fucking cheek.

 

Just stop.

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21 hours ago, Happy said:

The plural of moose is mice......isn't it?

Here is the singularSAM_1009.thumb.JPG.2c5cef6e67bc6792b4921a69a707f76d.JPG

(across my driveway), but I would take him in all his velvet over covid anyday. Besides, its the cows with calves you have to yield to.

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3 hours ago, Ncik said:

Round and round and round you go. Each one knocked over time and time again. Sweden is held up as the way to handle this pandemic, only to fall victim to it eventually.

 

How has Sweden fallen victim?

Sweden has an excess mortality rate 7 times less than the USA.  Children in Sweden didn't stop going to school and their high schools were only closed for 3 months.

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30 minutes ago, Kate short for Bob said:

How has Sweden fallen victim?

Sweden has an excess mortality rate 7 times less than the USA.  Children in Sweden didn't stop going to school and their high schools were only closed for 3 months.

Only in mikey world is 2119 7x 1452

(death per million due to Covid)

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21 minutes ago, Raz'r said:

Only in mikey world is 2119 7x 1452

(death per million due to Covid)

I said excess mortality - it was once the "Gold Standard" measure.  Although the figure you quote Sweden is better than 40 USA States.

As you can see from the following graph's Sweden has performed substantially better by this measure.

 

 

excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline.png

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18 hours ago, Terry Hollis said:

I was commenting on eye's explanation about how they arrived at their conclusions, what she described was medical practice, not science. There is nothing to stop medical practitioners from using the scientific method and becoming scientists and some do, but that was not what she was describing.

And in turn,I was responding to KSB  who  seemed to suggest that the advisory committees role is to establish absolute scientific fact.  They are reviewing and interpreting medical data to determine if a proposed treatment , protocol, diagnosis, or preventive care is effective and safe.  The poster suggested that different experts might in good faith reach different conclusions (he used the word opinions) from the same data. 

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11 hours ago, Kate short for Bob said:

I said excess mortality - it was once the "Gold Standard" measure.  Although the figure you quote Sweden is better than 40 USA States.

As you can see from the following graph's Sweden has performed substantially better by this measure.

 

 

excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline.png

Wow, you just proved anti-vaxxers are killing americans. (Sweden is at 70% vax rate)

Thanks for that.

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2 hours ago, Raz'r said:

Wow, you just proved anti-vaxxers are killing americans. (Sweden is at 70% vax rate)

Thanks for that.

Proved no such thing.  You may want to check when vaccination started in Sweden - Sweden has had a consistently lower excess death rate than the USA regardless of vaccination even with schools staying open.

The mortality age distribution profile hasn't changed since vaccination has started I.e. the aged and comorbid are still dominating deaths.  The rate has reduced.  Sweden also has a very large natural immunity.

Overall Sweden has had a very successful pandemic strategy that ironically was what they and WHO had preplanned well before Covid-19.

At the end of the day the average mortality rate has risen by about 0.3 of a person per 1000 of population.  

Note:  I'm am not an anti-vaxxer - everyone who is at seriois risk should get vaccinated.

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8 hours ago, EYESAILOR said:

They are reviewing and interpreting medical data to determine if a proposed treatment , protocol, diagnosis, or preventive care is effective and safe.  

Based on scientific facts otherwise who else keeps the Pharmco's honest?  The advisory panel has to deal in facts unfortunately it appears this safeguard has been diminished in recent years with the lines blurred between the Pharmco's and the gatekeepers.

For example 1 in 4 recommendations from the FDA advisory panels are overruled by FDA management.  How does that work?  Why have Emergency Use Approvals increased in recent years? Does that add to confidence in the practice of medicine?

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