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Trophée Jules Verne 2021


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Spindrift 2 (sail for change) going on standby.

Gitana on standby when she gets back from Transat Jaques Vabre (I'm guessing crew training on the trip back to France)

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For Gitana,  the probability that they come back from two transats without foils/rudders damage is quite low, but on their last attempt they started early January, so still some time for some repairs 

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Maybe some ultim will have a shot on new York lizard point record on the way back from TJV, Gabart said this record is high on his list, what is the best season for it? More beginning spring? 

 

Edit: current one is from August 2009, bidegorry on bpV (now spindrift/sail for change) 

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  • 5 weeks later...

I guess it partly depends on whether or not they'd be willing to kill an attempt 3 days out, return, and try again...  Seems like a one-shot annual attempt is the usual plan...  but if you're willing to give it a go, bail out, re-provision, and try again...  then they could have gone out and made the decision on whether or not to proceed post-start.

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5 hours ago, Your Mom said:

I guess it partly depends on whether or not they'd be willing to kill an attempt 3 days out, return, and try again...  Seems like a one-shot annual attempt is the usual plan...  but if you're willing to give it a go, bail out, re-provision, and try again...  then they could have gone out and made the decision on whether or not to proceed post-start.

3 days would be close to a record for them wouldn't it?

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I wonder if teams searching for this perfect windows are not actually missing some "average" windows which are developing into good ones. When looking for optimal forecast, they can only evolve negatively (or eventually keep up to their promises) but weather is not always according to forecast.

Would be interesting to know the cost and if it is worth to start more attempts up to a point (like 3 days in), and give a chance to more windows. Surely the interesting parts are passing the doldrums and catch the proper wind system after to ride in the South and I doubt the prediction are that reliable from the start, but I might miss something only the teams know. Or they are trying to chase this elusive perfect window and ready to miss out to one which is good enough.

Never really seen any insight during interview or articles (except the different codes, preparation and such; but not so much about the criteria for start).

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A bit more info :

 

 

Basically they see the St Helena high too big and South, which would oblige them to go too far south, and in an area with a lot of ice.

(but they could have spent more of the video to explain ...)

Apparently Jean Yves Bernot is telling them this is not a good window.

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Mind boggling to consider the interconnectedness of all of this......

Most cannot even fathom how critical the creation of accurate polars are nowdays. The associated cross over charts for sail selection and the capacity of a helmsman to stick to the criteria given by skipper and routeur. One feeds the other, and tiny Percentage gains or losses develop into non-forecastable errors. The video mentioned only one gybe to reach the Southern Ocean.....

We have finally only recently seen the establishment of what is regarded a normal Azores high position and even more recently that the trades between Africa and the Carribbean have settled into what could be called familiar.

JYB has to consider so many competing factors....... Tough job to make a Go/No Go call...... 

Something else keyboard warriors here might wish to consider is the impact of La Nina which has been declared by Australian BOM but not yet globally endorsed, along with Negative IOD and status of SAM. I would be fascinated to learn more on their impact for high latitude passages, and effects further afield than the regions who are directly impacted.

I know that we are probably not having to dissuade/educate flat eathers in this forum..... (Well I certainly hope not) but the opportunity to spread knowledge about local effects being felt globally is rare and the speed that these planetary laps are now being done in, represents a golden opportunity to teach young and fertile minds about concepts that are otherwise often too overwhelming or too slow to comprehend......

Hope they get to go soon and teach us all LOTS.

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On 11/26/2021 at 11:37 AM, Lakrass said:

I wonder if teams searching for this perfect windows are not actually missing some "average" windows which are developing into good ones. When looking for optimal forecast, they can only evolve negatively (or eventually keep up to their promises) but weather is not always according to forecast.

Would be interesting to know the cost and if it is worth to start more attempts up to a point (like 3 days in), and give a chance to more windows. Surely the interesting parts are passing the doldrums and catch the proper wind system after to ride in the South and I doubt the prediction are that reliable from the start, but I might miss something only the teams know. Or they are trying to chase this elusive perfect window and ready to miss out to one which is good enough.

Never really seen any insight during interview or articles (except the different codes, preparation and such; but not so much about the criteria for start).

How do we think this might change once the Ultimes go back into Jules Verne mode? As foilers they theoretically have different forecast requirements to Spindrift - is it possible their efficiency gives them a broader window of conditions that are considered favourable? Or does just shift the parameters but maintain the same 'narrowness'...?

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On 11/30/2021 at 6:46 PM, Justaquickone said:

 Impressive amount of solar pannels .

necessary on a boat intended to go 'round the marble without using fossil fuels...

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Great interview, with good questions and clarifying answers.

Bernot must be the oldest weather router in France, and still going strong at the sound of it.
A bit surprising that he is so confident about long term forecasts, and says: ”reliable data runs for up to ten days and more!", and later "We can clearly see what’s going to happen in the South Atlantic eight days in advance."   Of course it depends how he defines "reliable" and "clearly", and that must be where his real expertise and experience comes in. Quite fascinating really.

He also says:"...from 1990-2000... it wasn’t possible to predict the weather beyond five days". Note that he says "predict"!  In that period, when I asked him for a (free) 3 day forecast for Biscay, he said Force 6, maybe 7, and added "but beware, it is only a prediction, it could be more." Right he was, it was an 8, and a bit of struggle. The only time in all those years that a wave filled my cockpit, the wave and the young helmwoman actually, landing on the bottom but still holding the tiller, with a big :).

PS. Yes I know, must have told that story before...

 

Edited by Fiji Bitter
PS.
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