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3 minutes ago, chum said:

Knowing that the term "Reiich" is viewed by many, if not most readers as a reference to Naziism, why do you use it? Do you really think it's appropriate? I'm surprised you would after reading a lot of your posts of late.

I view that word in the same contemptuous way I view the N word.

 

Lefties calling those who don’t agree with them “Reiich” or whatever derivatives thereof need to look in the mirror.

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Much of the problem with RWNJ is the sustained effort to delegitimize the US Government as a source of reliable information. It has borne fruit with "Stop the Steal" fundraising and vaccine disinforma

Relying on an honour system with Trump is delusional.

BB got flicked looks like.

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21 minutes ago, chum said:

I was unaware Philly was a doctor, my mistake. Neither was I aware that 96% of doctors were vaccinated. Point taken.

 

https://www.ama-assn.org/press-center/press-releases/ama-survey-shows-over-96-doctors-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19

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12 minutes ago, chum said:

Knowing that the term "Reiich" is viewed by many, if not most readers as a reference to Naziism, why do you use it? Do you really think it's appropriate? I'm surprised you would after reading a lot of your posts of late.

I'm an enigma, wrapped up in mystery.

 

Sorry, folks. I see the current manifestation of the GOP as a national security threat, and a threat to democracy. I hold the party, combined with FOX News, Newsmax and other aligned groups responsible for the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of thousands during this pandemic.

You can give them and their disinformation-campaign-for-profit a pass, you can deny their culpability for a broad based assault on our electoral systems, but I will not.

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25 minutes ago, Burning Man said:

When you mean Philly's peers - are you talking about the entirety of the medical profession?  Because if so, that is a bit disingenuous.  The vast majority of the medical field who are "hesitant" are nurses or lower (orderlies, admin, etc).  Not Doctors.  The AMA says that 96% of doctors nationwide are fully vax'd.  And while you would think nurses would know better, I'm here to tell you that they are not always the sharpest spoons in the drawer.  You can have nurses with 2 year associate degrees (LPNs iirc) and RN's get some additional training on top of that but do not require a Bachelor's degree.  So nurses are not the most highly educated group out there.  They are great at taking orders, administering meds, cleaning shit off of hospital beds.  I'm not denigrating nurses.  My mother was a lifetime nurse, but she was in the minority who got advanced degrees and ran entire hospitals and LTCFs.  So if you're taking your "Cue" from the hesitancy of of the "medical community" - then you and others are doing yourselves and society a huge disservice.  

So I would listen to those 96% of docs who chose to become fully vax'd over a minimally educated nurse who struggled to decide between beauty school, admin assistant courses, or nursing.  

Just saying.  

My wife has a great many nurses in her Facebook friends list from her days practicing medicine.

A not insignificant percentage of them contribute to clogging her feed with right wing bullshit and memes. Sweet ladies, according to her, but they believe and push some bullshit.

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7 minutes ago, phillysailor said:
16 minutes ago, chum said:

Good point. I know that it's a different strain each year, so booster was the wrong word. Do you think we can expect the same from Covid, since it appears to be endemic now, like the flu?

Hopefully, the spike protein fragments identified and used in the mRNA viruses remain a good way for the immune system to ID COVID. The quicker we eradicate the virus, the less opportunity the virus has to morph to an unrecognizable antigen. A bit of a race against time and geopolitical realities, I'm afraid.

A novel change could render the current vaccines useless. That would suck.

And this is why vaccinating EVERYONE is so critical. It shuts down the festering breeding ground for mutant strains and variants.

The "if everyone else is vaccinated how come I need to be" crowd needs to be slapped upside the head.

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Just now, chum said:

Except, as I understand it the disease is spread by the vaccinated also, how do you factor that in?

The vaccine facilitates a more rapid and more aggressive immune response. It limits the duration and severity of infection.

Basically, you are less infectious for a shorter period of time. R0 closer to 1 or perhaps <1

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And I apologize to nurses as well....  It looks like 88% of them as well as 96% of docs are fully vax'd.  It's the aide and other Health care workers in LTCF's that seem to be the problem.

It can be startling to read reports of disparate vaccination rates among health workers. In the south or the borough of Staten Island in New York City, for example, there are pockets of health workers who are strongly opposed to vaccination. Vaccine hesitancy tends to be more common among the staff of long-term care facilities, where only 60% of staff is vaccinated. A CDC report in July found the lowest vaccination rate of health workers was among aides, including certified nursing assistants, nurse aides and medication aides and assistants, at 45.6% – but that figure was as of March, and it’s likely that rate has risen since. (Nursing aides or assistants usually undergo a four- to 12-week training course, while registered nurses receive two- or four-year degrees and must pass a licensing test.)

In contrast, 88% of nurses and 96% of physicians in the US have already gotten vaccinated or plan to do so, according to surveys by the American Nurses Association and the American Medical Association.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/09/us-nurses-vaccinated-vaccine-hesitant

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12 minutes ago, phillysailor said:

Unfortunately, some of those with the most fixed opinions countering the efficacy of COVID vaccines are physicians. They speak with a powerful voice, using the symbols, language and platforms of the profession to spread their opinions. It would be great if they fact-checked with leading experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology before infecting YouTube, Twitter and news organs with their approach to understanding the issues involved.

Unfortunately, in any group of individuals, some will transgress codes of professionalism and challenge established science without sufficient work, knowledge or expertise. But if "first do no harm" is taken as all important, doing the math of vaccinations vs the risk posed by achieving natural immunity should guide advice to patients and the public.

Its comparable to the risk required of patients to drive on a major interstate to get to their doctor's appointment. Yes, the risk isn't zero, but it's worth it.

I’ve had multiple clients this year who are doctors and I asked each one their opinion on COVID.
All said that in their opinion, COVID is not much  more than a severe flue which affects the elderly, infirm and obese disproportionately to the rest of society.

 

 

All were vaccinated and all said that they would not voice their true opinions publicly out of fear.

 

 

That is concerning.

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Just now, chum said:

Somebody here, well he is a first year nurse, wrote that 95% of the population would have to be vaccinated at the same time. How does that factor in?

Thats not a realistic public health campaign. We've got a good one going, it would simply be more effective with less signal to noise loss.

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16 minutes ago, Not My Real Name said:

You don't have to round them up, and that wouldn't be appropriate. But participation in society does mean you agree to certain rules and behaviors WRT the safety of the community. Right wingers have been whining for years when it's pointed out that there is an unwritten 'social contract' to participating in society. They claim they never signed it...maybe it's time to make them.

We've required vaccinations for school for years. Requiring them of other public access is not unreasonable.

So anyone can choose to be unvaxxed and carry disease. And society can say "You may not come in here carrying disease" to everything from airports to movie theaters and other businesses. Participation in public can mandate vaccination.

Don't want to vaccinate? Fine...drive instead of fly, watch your movies at home, use click & collect for groceries, shop for goods online, and keep the willing plague rats away from the rest of the population.

Yup.   100%

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1 hour ago, chum said:

Why do you suppose so many of your fellow professionals are hesitant, Ive been taking my cue from them, for one.

The risk profile for COVID swings old.

Your chances of getting COVID and your chances of surviving it are two altogether different things. So if you're young, or just forever young, your chances of getting it are about the same or even better than stay at home granny, better because as young or forever young you're out there hitting the bars hard and coughing in people's faces. You're saying What, me worry? I'll live. Probably.

So you get COVID. So the fuck what? You'll live. Probably. And after you survive you can humblebrag to all your friends about how tough you are, marines are tough, and about your new found natural immunity. Awesome you. All those people you exposed? Don't worry. They'll live. Probably. Maybe not granny, but fuck the bitch.

This is just stupid selfish thinking, your specialty. And if that makes you feel bad, remember, we wouldn't even be in this situation if it weren't for the Chynese.

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3 minutes ago, Olsonist said:

Young professionals are by definition young. That is how that works. However, the risk profile for COVID swings old.

Your chances of getting COVID and your chances of surviving it are two altogether different things. So if you're young, or just forever young, your chances of getting it are about the same or even better than stay at home granny, better because as young or forever young you're out there hitting the bars hard and coughing in people's faces. You're saying What, me worry? I'll live. Probably.

So you get COVID. So the fuck what? You'll live. Probably. And after you survive you can humblebrag to all your friends about how tough you are, marines are tough, and about your new found natural immunity. Awesome you. All those people you exposed? Don't worry. They'll live. Probably. Maybe not granny, but fuck the bitch.

This is just stupid selfish thinking, your specialty. And if that makes you feel bad, remember, we wouldn't even be in this situation if it weren't for the Chynese.

Chill, O

He's been vaccinated, and I don't think he's considered the selfish angle until this thread. It's tough to question a worldview, but he's at least grappling with good info now.

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6 minutes ago, chum said:

So, is there any truth to the statements that were could be creating a "super virus" thats resistant to the vaccines by not immunizing all at once? Much like not taking the whole prescribed dose of antibiotics?

I think the law of unintended consequences is real, but I acknowledge my inability to predict its implications in this instance.

Man's gotta know his limitations.

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1 minute ago, phillysailor said:

He's been vaccinated

Yeah, the hesitant vaxxed. My favorite. There was someone here, might have been Dumb, might have been someone else, loudly protesting that he was vaxxed and that in fact already had his booster. This was before boosters were even available.

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Did someone say covid is over? Here is a new variant just in time for the flu season.

New COVID-19 variant detected in South Africa, scientists say

Source: The Hill

A new COVID-19 variant of "serious concern" has been detected in South Africa, scientists said at a press conference on Thursday. 

"Here is a mutation variant of serious concern," South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at the media briefing, Bloomberg reported. "We were hopeful that we might have a longer break in between waves - possibly that it would hold off to late December or even next year January." 

Tulio de Oliveira, a bio-informatics professor at two universities in South Africa, said the new variant is called B.1.1529 and is "clearly very different" from past mutations of the coronavirus, with a larger number of mutations compared to previous variants such as delta. 

Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute, said the new variant was likely created in an immunocompromised person who can carry the virus for longer than normal.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-covid-19-variant-detected-in-south-africa-scientists-say/ar-AAR8akJ?ocid=NL_ENUS_D1_20211125_2_2 

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2 minutes ago, chum said:

I thought the vaccines protected people who had them from serious illness or death, that it does not is changing my perception.

This statement is incorrect, your perception should remain as it was. 

Just as a seatbelt does not save all car crash victims, despite the efficacy of air bags to reduce the number and severity of injuries people still die every day. The vaccine is an important tool that DOES prevent serious illness and death, in measurable and often-quoted statistics. Go search them out yourself. 

Don't continue to spread and believe disinformation without fully checking it.

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1 hour ago, chum said:

So, is there any truth to the statements that were could be creating a "super virus" thats resistant to the vaccines by not immunizing all at once? Much like not taking the whole prescribed dose of antibiotics?

Its all about probability but in the case of RNA viruses - like COVID -  'partial vaccinations' aren't as much an issue as with things like misuse of antibiotics.  Their response to stressors is different.

In the case of RNA viruses, they're not as adaptive as a bacteria.  In essence, they're always creating mutations - many of them bad for the virus itself - and its just 'time served' that matters.   They co-opt the host's own machinery to replicate and so each instruction set is what it is at the time of creation.  That is at the root of the 'lab vs nature' debate.  The Bat form of COVID doesn't replicate in humans.  The spikes aren't at the correct spacing.    And similarly, the human form of COVID doesn't replicate in bats.  So, assume there's a random mutation of a COVID virus in a bat cell somewhere that makes it human-compatible... then that random variation won't continue to propagate IN THE BAT.  The spacing is wrong and it can't attack new cells.  That's an an evolutionary dead end.  For that strain to survive, it has to get OUT of a bat and INTO a human (or human compatible species) before it degraded.  And COVID is a pretty wussy virus on its own, destroyed quickly by light and harsh environment.  COVID relies on rapid spread, not hearty durability, to propagate.  That was why the 'natural origin folks' are always looking for an 'intermediate' species - one for whom BOTH bat and human COVIDs can replicate.  That's the intermediate that hasn't been uncovered.  That absence is the biggest piece of evidence in support o the 'lab leak' hypothesis.  There aren't that many crossover species and none have been identified as the bridge-species.  But you can't prove a negative.

Antibiotics interfere with bacteria replication (usually) but bacteria can interact with other bacteria.  When bacteria start to die, OTHER bacteria detect their protein guts spilled out and know something is wrong.  At that point, the survivors flip their internal 'mutate switch' and start trying to adapt to the environmental stressors.  They have their own machinery.  Stuff like this (https://www.pnas.org/content/113/18/E2498) describe the relationship.  So if you start taking antibiotics, you want to take a lethal dose (to the bacteria) so that they die quickly and completely and don't have time to adapt.  Taking partial doses of antibiotics that kill SOME of the bacteria but give the survivors a chance to come up with some new trick is bad.

We don't have to get everyone vaccinated but the sooner the vast majority are vaccinated, the less chance COVID has to come up with a new variant.  Replicating in thousand people is better than replicating in a million people and that's way better than replicating in a billion. 

Personally, I think we're past that window now.  COVID has spread to other human adjacent species and so we'd have to vaccinate all of THEM too.  That's not even remotely possible.  The good news is that the virus wins by spreading, not killing.  So eventually, it may become more benign naturally.

 

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4 hours ago, chum said:

Rain Man being a dick for no reason, preserved until the next EMP event or whatever else it takes to wipe out our fragile existence as we know it here.:o:lol:

Shit weather up here in the PNW today makes me grumpy - hence my moniker.  Don't take it personally. I hid it for you since it bothered you. You can hide posts even after the editing window expires BTW. 

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22 hours ago, BeSafe said:

There IS a issue with the Lipid anchors for the mRNA shots.  That's real and deserves consideration.

You made me curious, thanks.

https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/concerns-of-lipid-nanoparticle-carrying-mrna-vaccine-into-the-brain-what-to-make-of-it-42b1a98dae27

Lots of info, but the conclusion after lots of text with interesting facts;

Thus, the mere 30 micrograms of mRNA vaccine injected intramuscularly pale in comparison to the actual virus infection in the capacity to trigger cytotoxic T-cell attacks in the brain or elsewhere. And yes, SARS-CoV-2 is capable of invading the brain and many other organs.

Indeed, experts in the mRNA discussion google group who first raised the hypothetical risks of LNP-encapsulated mRNA vaccines are still pro-vaccine, agreeing that SARS-CoV-2 or Covid-19 is the larger threat.

To conclude, this article doesn’t intend to undermine the mRNA vaccine but to better understand its subtle intricacies that might be important. Hopefully, there will be more research on this matter. If at all such concern is an issue, which is unlikely, we could still find ways to circumvent it. If not, then we can safely dismiss one worry we have. Either way, it’s worth knowing.

----------------------
So interesting but not something that worries me. But noticed again that a lot of research in MrNA was done before Covid.

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Daily infections rising in 35 states, hospitalizations up in half the country

Eyewitness News 
Thursday, November 25, 2021 1:09PM 

... The CDC now predicts the U.S. death toll will surpass 800,000 before Christmas. 

"We have a half dozen ICU patients that are waiting for beds and don't have beds for them yet," UMass Memorial Health's Dr. Eric Dickson said ... 

https://abc7ny.com/covid-daily-infections-rising-hospitalizations-increasing-hospitals-overwhelmed/11270062/

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6 minutes ago, chum said:

I don’t have any “deniers” in my “pesonal orbit around”, whatever that means, thanks for your concern. 

Thanks to all who have made meaningful contributions, instead of just personal attacks. This kind of information is useful for the roughly 1/3 of eligible adults left to reach. The rest of the BS doesn’t help at all, and just turns more people off than It sways, espcoially coming from people who really have no idea what they’re taking about.

Thanks for engaging the subject straightforwardly. I engage about 80% of my patients on the topic, and a few have subsequently stated their intention to schedule a job, and many have acknowledged a greater willingness to at least consider vaccination. To me, its like any other discussion of health or medical care. I can give an awesome bedside speech about sleep apnea. I should sell tickets.

 

Not for anything, but I did my third "easy" turkey this year. Refrigerated a COSTCO smoked turkey, which comes pre-cooked & shrink wrapped. Took it out & left it on the counter until 3 hours before din din, then sous vide 135ºF  Take it out of the wrap, pat it dry and bake for 20 minutes at 400º to get the skin a little bit crispy. Juicy, evenly cooked. All you traditionalists will scoff, but i figure the sides steal the show, anyways. My wife has trained the kids to expect a honey baked ham, anyways.

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2 hours ago, badlatitude said:

... The CDC now predicts the U.S. death toll will surpass 800,000 before Christmas.

Christmas? Try by the weekend. 1500 to go and daily totals over 1K pretty regularly

Current stats

USA 48,988,273 +15,723 798,520 +275
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4 minutes ago, chum said:

The rest of the BS doesn’t help at all, and just turns more people off than It sways, espcially coming from people who really have no idea what they’re taking about, but tend to just follow the herd like frightened stupid cows.
 

a little hypocritical?

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1 minute ago, chum said:

BS surrounding vaccinations.

The post directly above mine pointed out the numbers of deaths we’re expected to reach, I pointed out that our current president put the blame for much lower numbers squarely on the former president. Shouldn’t we expect the same accountability of him?

No we shouldn’t. 

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7 hours ago, chum said:

 though I understand 30% of those in the ICU in Vermont last week were fully vaxxed, so that is cause for pause.

 

 

I checked and something like 73% of Vermonters (Vermontians?) are fully vaxxed so 73% of the population is producing 30% of ICU folks. This means that the 27% who are not jabbed make up 70% of the ICU population. Huge advantage to get vaxxed.

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36 minutes ago, chum said:

BS surrounding vaccinations.

The post directly above mine pointed out the numbers of deaths we’re expected to reach, I pointed out that our current president put the blame for much lower numbers squarely on the former president. Shouldn’t we expect the same accountability of him?

No. The logic of this shouldn't have to be explained.

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9 minutes ago, chum said:

Try anyway. You know me, dumb as a post and all...

Nope. Not wasting my time. If you don't understand it already (or choose not to, or pretend not to) then you ain't never gonna.

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3 minutes ago, chum said:

I don’t think you have any logic to explain, you just thought it sounded good, admit it.

Do you actually not understand basic logic? Or are you just a pretending troll?

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13 hours ago, quod umbra said:

For myself JB, I have gotten two jabs. The second saw me in hospital as explained earlier, more than once. I would not get a third jab because I really do not want a repeat of my experiences after the second jab.

There are stats on that.  You are again reasoning by analogy. 

Sorry for your experience, but it teaches the rest of us absolutely nada 

As of December 23, 2020, a reported 1,893,360 first doses of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the United States, and reports of 4,393 (0.2%) adverse events after receipt of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine had been submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)

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2 hours ago, chum said:

BS surrounding vaccinations.

The post directly above mine pointed out the numbers of deaths we’re expected to reach, I pointed out that our current president put the blame for much lower numbers squarely on the former president. Shouldn’t we expect the same accountability of him?

The Former Guy deserves blame for knowing just how fucking bad it is and lying to you, me, and everyone else. He deserves blame for downplaying it and dawdling while shit was flying. He deserves blame for ignoring the scientists and relying on the pillow salesman (among others).
The current guy decided to push a wholesale vaccine effort, from day one. He listens to the scientists  

It’s not that you don’t GET the difference. It’s that you won’t ACCEPT the difference. Willful ignorance. 

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27 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

For those of you that understand

Remind me to go sailing a lot and avoid crowds . . 

The longer the anti-vaxxers hold out, the more likely it is 

that a poke-resistant variant will emerge. 

Recent news also demonstrates that the vaxx program 

should have been global from the start. 

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3 hours ago, AJ Oliver said:

There are stats on that.  You are again reasoning by analogy. 

Sorry for your experience, but it teaches the rest of us absolutely nada 

As of December 23, 2020, a reported 1,893,360 first doses of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine had been administered in the United States, and reports of 4,393 (0.2%) adverse events after receipt of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine had been submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the VAERS a self-reporting system?  A person could get the shot, then go to a restaurant and get food poisoning and blame it on the vaccine?

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@chum

here is your explanation.

if there are four hundred people

if 200  get the vaccination and 200 dont 

The very worst reports on the vaccine say it is likely:
* one of the two hundred vaccinated will get COVID anyway 

**two of those who aren’t vaccinated will get the virus 

That number may seem small. ( note: the vax advocates say my number is off by a factor of 10 but I am using anti vaxer numbers) 

 

If you change the numbers to 2000 the difference is 10 extra sick people

if you change to 20,000 the difference is 100 people

st 2,000,000 the difference is 100,000 people 

 

that is a really bug number.

 

think about changing the number to 2,000,000,000

 

just do the math 

 

 

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9 hours ago, chum said:

I was pointing out the 30% fully vaxxed in the context of the leaky vaccines, and the question of where that would lead. Clearly 70% is better than 30%, I don’t argue with that.

It is not just the 70 vs 30 thing it is the underlying populations that generate this split. Imagine a situation where a jurisdiction is 99% vaccinated (would be nice) and where half of those getting infected were vaxxed and half were not. Many RW nutbars would try to make the point, being math-challenged that vaxxed and unvaxxed are equally likely to get infected. With the Vermont case if you divide 30/72 you get 0.42. If you divide 70/28 you get 2.5. Divide 2.5/0.42 and you get 6. This is the real difference between the two groups.

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20 hours ago, quod umbra said:

I respect your right to your opinion.
That, however, doesn't mean we completely discount the protection afforded from natural immunity.
And I do agree with you that the vaccine affords better immunity in conjunction with NI.
Would also add that one size fits all is not necessarily sound logic.

You have a great Thanks Giving. I wish you and your loved one's well as we head into the holiday season.
That goes for all of you.

This is a gross misrepresentation.

Nobody is "completely discounting" acquired/natural immunity. If this were true, there would be no statistics on it.

- DSK

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1 hour ago, Bristol-Cruiser said:

It is not just the 70 vs 30 thing it is the underlying populations that generate this split. Imagine a situation where a jurisdiction is 99% vaccinated (would be nice) and where half of those getting infected were vaxxed and half were not. Many RW nutbars would try to make the point, being math-challenged that vaxxed and unvaxxed are equally likely to get infected. With the Vermont case if you divide 30/72 you get 0.42. If you divide 70/28 you get 2.5. Divide 2.5/0.42 and you get 6. This is the real difference between the two groups.

Remember who you're talking to. Chum is devoted to spreading ignorance and vax disinformation. He's so devoted to this, he called me a bullshitter when I pointed out that this is what he's doing.

- DSK

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19 hours ago, phillysailor said:

Unfortunately, some of those with the most fixed opinions countering the efficacy of COVID vaccines are physicians. They speak with a powerful voice, using the symbols, language and platforms of the profession to spread their opinions. It would be great if they fact-checked with leading experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology before infecting YouTube, Twitter and news organs with their approach to understanding the issues involved.

Unfortunately, in any group of individuals, some will transgress codes of professionalism and challenge established science without sufficient work, knowledge or expertise. But if "first do no harm" is taken as all important, doing the math of vaccinations vs the risk posed by achieving natural immunity should guide advice to patients and the public.

Its comparable to the risk required of patients to drive on a major interstate to get to their doctor's appointment. Yes, the risk isn't zero, but it's worth it.

Agree, I'm always taken hard aback by real doctors (not Rand Paul wanna-bees) who are anti-vax. I should clarify, I have not heard from any that are anti-vax across the board, just anti-covid-vax. It seems to be driven by their political views and it seems like they have not seriously examined the scientific data available (which takes time).

I would not speak harshly about the nurses and others in the medical field, in many/most cases they don't have the exhaustive education in the processes of the human body on the cellular and sub-cell level that the USA pushes into medical education. When they hear things like mRNA and antibody responses, instead picturing what is happening (which I can't really do myself) they just glaze over and give a programmed response. It's like talking about the difference between carburetors and fuel injection to a person who knows how to drive but when looking under the hood isn't really sure which one is the engine and which one is the battery.

One of the Duke epidemiologists was on public radio the other day talking about "herd immunity" and saying that it's not a difficult concept to understand at all, but it's been the subject of a lot of wishful thinking. It was always 90% and up, and always going to be, and he wished that there had not been doctors publicly going along with the wishful thinking.

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

- DSK

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South Africa Finds New Variant Of COVID-19 With 'Constellation Of Mutations'

The United Kingdom temporarily barred flights from six African nations amid fears over the new coronavirus strain. 

 

A new variant of the coronavirus has been found in South Africa, troubling scientists who say the strain has a high number of mutations and is likely already sparking a jump in new cases around Johannesburg. 

The variant, which is being referred to as the B1.1.529 variant until the World Health Organization decides to assign it a letter of the Greek alphabet, is linked to 22 positive cases in South Africa so far, as well as cases in Hong Kong and Botswana among travelers from the country. 


“You can be rest assured that as people move in the next coming weeks, this [variant] will be all over,” Dr. Joe Phaahla, South Africa’s health minister, said at a media briefing on Thursday. “Over the last four or five days, there has been more of an exponential rise [in cases].” 

Several variants of COVID-19 have been cause for concern as the virus mutates, including the highly transmissible delta strain. Mutations are a prime fear among health officials, who worry new strains of the coronavirus could bypass the effectiveness of vaccines that have aided the reopening of society and limited severe illness and death among inoculated people................................

Read more: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/south-africa-covid-19-variant-mutations_n_61a04a18e4b0451e55057dce 

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EXPLAINER: What is this new COVID variant in South Africa?

LONDON (AP) — WHAT IS THIS NEW COVID-19 VARIANT IN SOUTH AFRICA? 

South African scientists have identified a new version of the coronavirus this week that they say is behind a recent spike in COVID-19 infections in Gauteng, the country’s most populous province. It’s unclear where the new variant actually arose, but it was first detected by scientists in South Africa and has also been seen in travelers to Hong Kong and Botswana… From just over 200 new confirmed cases per day in recent weeks, South Africa saw the number of new daily cases rocket to 2,465 on Thursday. Struggling to explain the sudden rise in cases, scientists studied virus samples from the outbreak and discovered the new variant. 

WHY ARE SCIENTISTS WORRIED ABOUT THIS NEW VARIANT? 

It appears to have a high number of mutations — about 30 — in the coronavirus’ spike protein, which could affect how easily it spreads to people. Sharon Peacock, who has led genetic sequencing of COVID-19 in Britain at the University of Cambridge, said the data so far suggest the new variant has mutations “consistent with enhanced transmissibility,” but said that “the significance of many of the mutations is still not known.” 

WHAT’S KNOWN AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THE VARIANT? 

We know that the new variant is genetically distinct from previous variants including the beta and delta variants, but we do not know if these genetic changes make it any more transmissible or dangerous. South African scientists have noticed a surge of cases, but we don’t know if the new variant is responsible and it will take weeks to sort out if vaccines are still effective against it. 

More here 
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-travel-europe-116ef818ac4a8e7bc23bb28d6511ecad

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Coronavirus: Countries shut borders over new South Africa variant

Source: BBC

More countries are tightening their travel restrictions after a new coronavirus variant was identified in South Africa earlier this week. 

The UK, Singapore and Japan are among those rushing in stricter quarantine measures and banning flights from South Africa and neighbouring countries. 

The EU is proposing to ban flights from the region across the whole bloc. 

Scientists still have much to learn about the variant, but say they are very worried about it.

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Bbbc.news.twitter%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=B07A91CC-4EA8-11EC-B4D0-A79A4744363C&at_custom3=%40BBCWorld&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom2=twitter

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9 minutes ago, chum said:

End flights from South Africa now, follow the lead of the EU. HAVENT WE LEARNED ANYTHING?

That will have little effect.  It is already in other locations.  Short of an absolute shutdown of international travel (which ain't gonna happen), we have to do what we can and hope for the best.

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13 minutes ago, chum said:

End flights from South Africa now, follow the lead of the EU. HAVENT WE LEARNED ANYTHING?

What about American citizens who are in South Africa? Are you going to let them come back?

Because that's what happened when flights were "banned" from China.

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chum - As BL shared on page 2 of this thread, this variant has been detected in Hong Kong.  How many people, traveling to how many other destinations may have been exposed?  How many people traveling with THOSE people have been exposed?

As I said, short of an absolute shutdown of any incoming international flights, including US citizens trying to return home, you can't rely on that.

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22 hours ago, Burning Man said:

And I apologize to nurses as well....  It looks like 88% of them as well as 96% of docs are fully vax'd.  It's the aide and other Health care workers in LTCF's that seem to be the problem.

It can be startling to read reports of disparate vaccination rates among health workers. In the south or the borough of Staten Island in New York City, for example, there are pockets of health workers who are strongly opposed to vaccination. Vaccine hesitancy tends to be more common among the staff of long-term care facilities, where only 60% of staff is vaccinated. A CDC report in July found the lowest vaccination rate of health workers was among aides, including certified nursing assistants, nurse aides and medication aides and assistants, at 45.6% – but that figure was as of March, and it’s likely that rate has risen since. (Nursing aides or assistants usually undergo a four- to 12-week training course, while registered nurses receive two- or four-year degrees and must pass a licensing test.)

In contrast, 88% of nurses and 96% of physicians in the US have already gotten vaccinated or plan to do so, according to surveys by the American Nurses Association and the American Medical Association.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/09/us-nurses-vaccinated-vaccine-hesitant

I had to become a CNA (Certified Nurse Aide) to get into RN school. They had too many nursing students give up their precious slot the first time they had to wipe ass and clean up a serious "Code Brown."   Was a 10 day class through some techno-bullshit school in a strip mall.  

 

Also, @phillysailor is right about the training of the majority of RNs.  We had to take a class in Pathophysiology which I thought was fantastic.   Wrote a tidy 30 page paper on Antibody-Dependent-Enhancement in Dengue.   Learned a ton about the immune system but mostly I learned that it is such an incredibly mysterious and complex thing you could study it your whole life and not make much of a dent.    Then I come to find out my school was one of the rare ones that requires pathophysiology.   

 

 

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2 hours ago, Sol Rosenberg said:

 

The threat of a more contagious/deadly COVID developing in the unvaccinated petri dish has been pointed out here many times.  And basically Africa, the continent, is unvaccinated. 

We better hope a scenario of antibody-dependent enhancement doesn't occur, because with covid being so contagious that will turn the world into a post apocalyptic scenario and then the cry babies will be really pissed about mask and vaccines. 

Imagine there are 4 types of the same virus.  You get infected with one it's not a big deal.  But then if you get infected with a different type something awful happens.  The types of virus are similar enough that your bodies immune response is identical- the antibodies etc.  However, the virus types are DIFFERENT enough that the antibodies are useless.  And worse, your body gets into a feed back loop and starts pouring more inflammation responses , like tumor necrosis factor alpha, into the mix, which is cytotoxic and etc. 

This type of variation in COVID would take the pandemic to an entirely different level.  

 

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1 minute ago, Clove Hitch said:

The threat of a more contagious/deadly COVID developing in the unvaccinated petri dish has been pointed out here many times.  And basically Africa, the continent, is unvaccinated. 

We better hope a scenario of antibody-dependent enhancement doesn't occur, because with covid being so contagious that will turn the world into a post apocalyptic scenario and then the cry babies will be really pissed about mask and vaccines. 

Imagine there are 4 types of the same virus.  You get infected with one it's not a big deal.  But then if you get infected with a different type something awful happens.  The types of virus are similar enough that your bodies immune response is identical- the antibodies etc.  However, the virus types are DIFFERENT enough that the antibodies are useless.  And worse, your body gets into a feed back loop and starts pouring more inflammation responses , like tumor necrosis factor alpha, into the mix, which is cytotoxic and etc. 

This type of variation in COVID would take the pandemic to an entirely different level.  

 

Brought to you by bullshitters doing their own research. 

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4 minutes ago, Sol Rosenberg said:
6 minutes ago, Clove Hitch said:

The threat of a more contagious/deadly COVID developing in the unvaccinated petri dish has been pointed out here many times.  And basically Africa, the continent, is unvaccinated. 

We better hope a scenario of antibody-dependent enhancement doesn't occur, because with covid being so contagious that will turn the world into a post apocalyptic scenario and then the cry babies will be really pissed about mask and vaccines. 

Imagine there are 4 types of the same virus.  You get infected with one it's not a big deal.  But then if you get infected with a different type something awful happens.  The types of virus are similar enough that your bodies immune response is identical- the antibodies etc.  However, the virus types are DIFFERENT enough that the antibodies are useless.  And worse, your body gets into a feed back loop and starts pouring more inflammation responses , like tumor necrosis factor alpha, into the mix, which is cytotoxic and etc. 

This type of variation in COVID would take the pandemic to an entirely different level.  

 

Expand  

Expand  

Brought to you by bullshitters doing their own research. 

Maybe the best way of developing real immunity to these variants is to eat the brains of those died of it?

Full-blown World War Z?

- DSK

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6 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

Maybe the best way of developing real immunity to these variants is to eat the brains of those died of it?

Full-blown World War Z?

- DSK

Many of those who are refusing to take precautions and avail themselves of effective vaccines seemingly lack that.

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4 minutes ago, badlatitude said:

Some science from a real virologist on Nu variant

Too much disinformation right now . This is an article from a scientist who played a role in developing our vaccines (but it does emphasize how important getting that vaccine is)! 


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1464222680731820043.html 
 

Thanks for the link.  This piece emphasized for brevity -

pict.thumb.png.605018622584be1d44a7e4ab404ea1e1.png

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17 minutes ago, phillysailor said:
2 hours ago, Clove Hitch said:

Also, @phillysailor is right about the training of the majority of RNs. 

I have made no statement regarding the training of RNs in this thread.

Please cite accurately.

That one may be on me, sorry. I have not made any misrepresentations.

- DSK

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On 11/25/2021 at 10:39 AM, chum said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/vermont-highest-vaccination-rate-country-cases-surging/story?id=81090116

 

ETA: Not the article I was looking for. I read that 30% of those in the ICU for Covid were fully vaxxed. Might have been more RW disinformation, I'll keep looking.

No, that goes against the vast majority of info I've read on current hospitalizations.  Breakthrough infections are rare.  The huge majority of people in ICUs are the unvaxxed.  No one said the vaccines were 100% effective.  But 90% is damn good.  I'll take my odds with 90+%.

This is from a 30 sec google search:

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf

This is probably the most illustrative graphic:

image.thumb.png.ad04b80e9d3a45b52f204c039fe81a22.png

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status

Un-vaxx'd are 14x more at risk from dying.....  are you interesting in playing with those odds??  14x, Really?

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Further......

image.thumb.png.dd0326d52f8e26b119a123ce5cea3841.png

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html

In MN - Less than 3% of vaccinated people are getting covid, 0.11% are ending up in the hospital and 0.02% are dying?  

@chum - dude not sure where you're getting your stats from.  But what you're saying is not the reality on the ground.  

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That fits with the 20x number I have seen. It still sucks that over 80 million freedom loving mask eschewing assholes are doing their best to keep it going while "doing their own research".

Yesterday was nice, 10 for Tday dinner and visit, all vaxxed and boosted.  Discussion was all friends and family stuff. 

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I’d be curious to know if that graph reflects matched cohorts.

A lot of elderly people, immunocompromised and those with serious ailment have decided to get vaccinated, feeling their risk is higher than that of the younger and healthier population.

If the graph and stats reflect reduced deaths in a more at-risk group, then their effectiveness is therefore even greater than stated. 
 

EDIT TO ADD: A quick look at the site says “similar risk factors” so I’m guessing these are matched cohorts. Interpret as presented.

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3 minutes ago, phillysailor said:

I’d be curious to know if that graph reflects matched cohorts.

A lot of elderly people, immunocompromised and those with serious ailment have decided to get vaccinated, feeling their risk is higher than that of the younger and healthier population.

If the graph and stats reflect reduced deaths in a more at-risk group, then their effectiveness is therefore even greater than stated. 

Go to the links I posted.  Both of them show effectiveness by age group.  you are correct, it's even greater than stated.  

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2 hours ago, chum said:

Not sure either, I listen to a lot of radio. All flavors. Sometimes I hear stuff and try to chase it down online, but can’t. Some good info here from those breaking it down, thanks to those making the effort. The signal to noise ratio is high here, but worth tuning in to the good info. I’m starting to come around, like a VLCC.

I think the moral here is stop using the media as your only source of information.  When I want to get the facts on something COVID, I typically go straight to the source.  Like the CDC or a state public health website.  Same thing if I'm trying to talk about gun murder stats - I go straight to the BATF or the FBI crime stat website rather than read what a particular media site says about those numbers.  

Info is really not that hard to find with a simple google search with basic keywords.  I skip over anything that is not from an official source.  I don't need others "Interpreting or parsing" info for me.  

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2 hours ago, chum said:

Not sure either, I listen to a lot of radio. All flavors. Sometimes I hear stuff and try to chase it down online, but can’t. Some good info here from those breaking it down, thanks to those making the effort. The signal to noise ratio is high here, but worth tuning in to the good info. I’m starting to come around, like a VLCC.

A high signal to noise ratio is a good thing. I learned that in engineering school.

image.thumb.png.9fe7a259fe835491cfe3ae16ee9db6c6.png

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I previously thought it was just a joke but yesterday I had a chat with an unvaxxed who mentioned the vax was a Bill Gates' plan to reduce the population. Probably no connection but she was wearing not one but two crosses outside her clothing. Is the double cross a silent dog whistle?

 

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1 hour ago, Burning Man said:

I think the moral here is stop using the media as your only source of information.  When I want to get the facts on something COVID, I typically go straight to the source.  Like the CDC or a state public health website.  Same thing if I'm trying to talk about gun murder stats - I go straight to the BATF or the FBI crime stat website rather than read what a particular media site says about those numbers.  

Info is really not that hard to find with a simple google search with basic keywords.  I skip over anything that is not from an official source.  I don't need others "Interpreting or parsing" info for me.  

Much of the problem with RWNJ is the sustained effort to delegitimize the US Government as a source of reliable information. It has borne fruit with "Stop the Steal" fundraising and vaccine disinformation.

It is a national security threat.

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1 hour ago, Blue Crab said:

I previously thought it was just a joke but yesterday I had a chat with an unvaxxed who mentioned the vax was a Bill Gates' plan to reduce the population. Probably no connection but she was wearing not one but two crosses outside her clothing. Is the double cross a silent dog whistle?

 

A double cross is a sign of Trump. He specialized in them.

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