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However the spread of the new strain of mental illness that has infected roughly 40% of Americans could be called the ‘Donald variant’. 

more bullshit from lying WHO and press, just in time for Christmas.

Well done Sluggo. Idiot post of the year. 

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Yeah, Gibraltar has had 100 deaths from Covid-19 since it first started.  What a fucking disaster so don't be like them.   Be like Texas where our Lt Dan (Lt Gov Dan Patrick) proudly announced that grandparents were willing to die to save the economy.  To date over 75,000 volunteers have gone to their great reward. 

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9 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

Or you could be objective and try to learn something useful, like perhaps Gibraltars "100% vaccination rate" is calculated by counting vaccinations that occurred more than 6 months ago which further confirms that the vaccinations do not provide lasting immunity. 

I am going to be objective and learn something useful which is to add you to the ignore list. Post in peace.

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15 hours ago, ShortForBob said:

Brian May has just recovered from Omicron.

He's triple jabbed. He's been careful throughout but thought he'd risk a birthday party where everyone was Vaxxed.

We need to slow this down

Why?   Is it better to get your first case in 2021, or 2025 when you are older and maybe in worse health?   Granted vaccines every 4-5 months may  continue to provide some protection as the virus keeps mutating.   You'll still have close to the same odds of getting  sick though, based on current vaccines against Delta in my workplace.    Maybe the first generation vaccines will be replaced by 2025.  Its a safe bet there will be better antiviral drugs.   Will that offset any potential health changes?    

Vaccines reduce severity (usually).    Exercise and healthy living reduce severity (usually).  Masks reduce viral load, potentially giving your immune system an extra doubling time or two to come to grips with the infection.   Travel restrictions?  Maybe they slow the spread of new strains while studies are run to show double shots of the old vaccine still protect some people from the worst cases.    Maybe they keep idiots from low vaccine areas from getting sick in the destination country, and becoming a burden instead of a revenue stream.   Shutdowns?   Unless your hospital is running out of oxygen or caregivers, what's the point?   How many decades of CoViD vacation do you want, while others with more useful jobs ('essential workers') try to keep society functioning on your behalf?   

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

Why?   Is it better to get your first case in 2021, or 2025 when you are older and maybe in worse health?   Granted vaccines every 4-5 months may  continue to provide some protection as the virus keeps mutating.   You'll still have close to the same odds of getting  sick though, based on current vaccines against Delta in my workplace.    Maybe the first generation vaccines will be replaced by 2025.  Its a safe bet there will be better antiviral drugs.   Will that offset any potential health changes?    

Vaccines reduce severity (usually).    Exercise and healthy living reduce severity (usually).  Masks reduce viral load, potentially giving your immune system an extra doubling time or two to come to grips with the infection.   Travel restrictions?  Maybe they slow the spread of new strains while studies are run to show double shots of the old vaccine still protect some people from the worst cases.    Maybe they keep idiots from low vaccine areas from getting sick in the destination country, and becoming a burden instead of a revenue stream.   Shutdowns?   Unless your hospital is running out of oxygen or caregivers, what's the point?   How many decades of CoViD vacation do you want, while others with more useful jobs ('essential workers') try to keep society functioning on your behalf?   

Edit.  Imprecise terminology.   Doubling refers to bacteria, which literally split in half.  Viruses dump out several thousand new viruses (numbers very by virus and tissue type) every time a host cell bursts, so one gives many instead of two.   The concept is similar, though less dramatic then with the initial bacterial pneumonia studies of the last century.   If the initial number of viruses is small it takes  a couple more replication cycles before the 'I can't breath' threshhold is reached.   Maybe that is enough time for the immune system to gain an advantage, especially if you have partial immunity from prior strains or vaccine and further viruses are possibly blocked by mucosal antibodies.   With the new variants the ability to protect your friends and coworkers completely is surely diminished without N95 level protection plus a shield.    Benefit is still near certain, until somebody proves why this virus is an exception to the fundamental tenants of infectious disease control.

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10 minutes ago, Lark said:

Edit.  Imprecise terminology.   Doubling refers to bacteria, which literally split in half.  Viruses dump out several thousand new viruses (numbers very by virus and tissue type) every time a host cell bursts, so one gives many instead of two.   The concept is similar, though less dramatic then with the initial bacterial pneumonia studies of the last century.   If the initial number of viruses is small it takes  a couple more replication cycles before the 'I can't breath' threshhold is reached.   Maybe that is enough time for the immune system to gain an advantage, especially if you have partial immunity from prior strains or vaccine and further viruses are possibly blocked by mucosal antibodies.   With the new variants the ability to protect your friends and coworkers completely is surely diminished without N95 level protection plus a shield.    Benefit is still near certain, until somebody proves why this virus is an exception to the fundamental tenants of infectious disease control.

Yup 

social distancing , a good mask and common sense are your best defense 

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26 minutes ago, Lark said:

Edit.  Imprecise terminology.   Doubling refers to bacteria, which literally split in half.  Viruses dump out several thousand new viruses (numbers very by virus and tissue type) every time a host cell bursts, so one gives many instead of two.   The concept is similar, though less dramatic then with the initial bacterial pneumonia studies of the last century.   If the initial number of viruses is small it takes  a couple more replication cycles before the 'I can't breath' threshhold is reached.   Maybe that is enough time for the immune system to gain an advantage, especially if you have partial immunity from prior strains or vaccine and further viruses are possibly blocked by mucosal antibodies.   With the new variants the ability to protect your friends and coworkers completely is surely diminished without N95 level protection plus a shield.    Benefit is still near certain, until somebody proves why this virus is an exception to the fundamental tenants of infectious disease control.

When "doubling" is used in the context of a public epidemic/pandemic, it means the number of cases.

It's been widely reported that the Omicron covid variant can "double in 2 days" meaning that where you have 10 sick people on Monday, you have 20 on Wednesday and 40 on Friday and 80 on Sunday, etc etc.

Masks are good, well-fitted GOOD masks are better; the highest mask effectiveness is when the sick person exhaling virus is wearing one (who may not have symptoms and not realize it).

- DSK

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Many folks are going to be giving and receiving the gift of covid this Christmas.   January will be an interesting month - we will soon know if omicron is just as dangerous as previous variants or if it is less dangerous.  

I suspect it is at least a 50% probability in my family alone.  We cancelled the big Xmas get together, but my kids are still coming home and we are having two friends join us.  Lots of possible exposures.

The idea that we will all get omicron is getting universal acceptance. 

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3 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

It's been widely reported that the Omicron covid variant can "double in 2 days"

I think some of those reports are a bit sketchy. IIRC (I'll look at it again later) using South Africa daily cases run through a low pass filter the max daily was about 1.4.

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45 minutes ago, Rain Man said:

The idea that we will all get omicron is getting universal acceptance. 

I've been wondering about that notion.  I think I've heard both that it is likely everyone will contract Omicron and that it is likely everyone will have been exposed to Omicron.  Not just semantics as there is a big difference between the two.

Wondering if anyone can clarify this.  I had been planning to visit my father in Nanaimo for the holidays but having second thoughts on this mainly for his safety, but nor am I relishing the prospect of taking the ferry now that you can't remain in your vehicle for the trip.

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1 hour ago, 12 metre said:

I've been wondering about that notion.  I think I've heard both that it is likely everyone will contract Omicron and that it is likely everyone will have been exposed to Omicron.  Not just semantics as there is a big difference between the two.

Wondering if anyone can clarify this.  I had been planning to visit my father in Nanaimo for the holidays but having second thoughts on this mainly for his safety, but nor am I relishing the prospect of taking the ferry now that you can't remain in your vehicle for the trip.

The question is 

a vaccinated person has “some “  immunity 

does a vaccinated person who contracts Covid, Omicron,  and recovers have super immunity ? 

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5 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

The question is 

a vaccinated person has “some “  immunity 

does a vaccinated person who contracts Covid, Omicron,  and recovers have super immunity ? 

I dunno about "super" immunity but a person who is vaccinated has better immunity than a person who has recovered ("natural immunity"); a person who has had a booster is better yet, a person who has had a booster of a different type is better yet, and this is approx equal to somebody who has recovered ("natural immunity') and has been vaccinated.

One of th issues with Omicron is that so far, there seem to be indications that it has some ability to evade immunity and recovery does not produce immune antibodies as much.

Obviously there is limited data so far on Omicron.

- DSK

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14 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

The question is 

a vaccinated person has “some “  immunity 

does a vaccinated person who contracts Covid, Omicron,  and recovers have super immunity ? 

Almost certainly better immunity then either infection or vaccine alone.   That is / was true for Delta.    Ask again in six months, somebody might have a better answer.   Ask again in 12 and 15 months, the answer might change.   Unlike Measles and individual influenza strains, immunity to this virus is transitory, as are the Ag markers on this virus.  That is one 'fact' that hasn't changed from the preliminary understanding of December 2019 (or more accurately, we seem to be returning to it after a brief period of optimism).    

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4 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

I dunno about "super" immunity but a person who is vaccinated has better immunity than a person who has recovered ("natural immunity"); a person who has had a booster is better yet, a person who has had a booster of a different type is better yet, and this is approx equal to somebody who has recovered ("natural immunity') and has been vaccinated.

One of th issues with Omicron is that so far, there seem to be indications that it has some ability to evade immunity and recovery does not produce immune antibodies as much.

Obviously there is limited data so far on Omicron.

- DSK

Can you provide a source?   I saw that neutralizing antibodies (The DeSantis treatment or plasma transfusions from recovered delta patients) are much less effective against this new strain.   I also understand it may give false negatives on some existing tests.   I assumed it would stimulate antibodies of its own though, at least for a while.

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1 minute ago, Lark said:

Can you provide a source?   I saw that neutralizing antibodies (The DeSantis treatment or plasma transfusions from recovered patients) are much less effective against this new strain.   I also understand it may give false negatives on some existing tests.   I assumed it would stimulate antibodies of its own though.

Dr. Fauci has been on the news the last couple of weeks talking about levels of different antibody production; it was fairly widely accepted 7~8 months ago that acquired/natural immunity plus vaccine was better than either alone. I tend to read medical journals on paper ... they tend to accumulate at a number of the places I hang out.

I'll look for a good source on line though.

- DSK

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46 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

The question is 

a vaccinated person has “some “  immunity 

does a vaccinated person who contracts Covid, Omicron,  and recovers have super immunity ? 

well, when they looked at the data for the original, vaccine + having it was highest level of immunity. Of course, pretty high level of croaking as well. Why not get the vax, get your breakthrough, and get your "super" immunity?

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

Can you provide a source?   I saw that neutralizing antibodies (The DeSantis treatment or plasma transfusions from recovered delta patients) are much less effective against this new strain.   I also understand it may give false negatives on some existing tests.   I assumed it would stimulate antibodies of its own though, at least for a while.

This isn't a "hard" medical journal but covers pretty much the same ground and does have further references

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/who-has-the-most-robust-antibodies-to-fight-omicron

- DSK

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The reason the antibody treatments fail against Omicron is that they are only antibodies. Our immune systems have many other weapons in their arsenal that help fight Omicron, even if the antibodies are somewhat evaded. Get vaccinated, triple shot, don't be risking things with Omicron or any other strain, it clearly is vastly better than being unvaccinated.

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22 hours ago, Lark said:

Almost certainly better immunity then either infection or vaccine alone.   That is / was true for Delta.    Ask again in six months, somebody might have a better answer.   Ask again in 12 and 15 months, the answer might change.   Unlike Measles and individual influenza strains, immunity to this virus is transitory, as are the Ag markers on this virus.  That is one 'fact' that hasn't changed from the preliminary understanding of December 2019 (or more accurately, we seem to be returning to it after a brief period of optimism).    

Previous infection , South Africa 

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/14/south-africa-previous-infections-may-explain-omicron-hospitalisation-rate

 

 

45DCA6F2-FAAD-48EE-BA15-0B822D9E36A3.png

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On 12/20/2021 at 6:40 AM, Tharsheblows said:

No that is absolutely wrong. 

While COVID vaccines certainly do have benefits, they work worse than most vaccines.

1) the term of effectiveness is only about 6 months, which is shorter than most vaccines for other diseases;

2) they do not totally stop asymptomatic transmission, which does not happen as much with vaccines for other diseases; and

3) they have a relatively high rate of breakthrough cases compared to vaccines for many other diseases.

So what?

Covid 19 is novel virus that has not yet had time to settle.

Are you seriously basing your argument on a comparison of vaccine efficacy between say basically stable chicken pox and continuously evolving covid 19?

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2 minutes ago, Tharsheblows said:

How about you name one vaccine that you have taken that lasts less than six months.  If you can name one then maybe further analysis is necessary.    ...

Do you know the time frame of antibody titers for many vaccines?

I suggest you check before you go there, aside from repeating RWNJ noise if you want to accomplish anything more.

- DSK

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1 minute ago, Tharsheblows said:

Again, that's different, that's the initial regimen ...

In other words, your game is to object, then say "oh, that's different"

So far you haven't presented ANYthing solid, just slander

I hope the troll-farm overseer docks your pay, you make the anti-vax movement look like even bigger idiots than ever

- DSK

 

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6 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

How about you name one vaccine that you have taken that lasts less than six months.  If you can name one then maybe further analysis is necessary.  

If not, the statement is probably solid without further research.  

I’m not saying that they don’t work or that you shouldn’t get a shot every six months…that up you.  I’m just saying that 6 months is a pretty disappointing duration of immunity as far as vaccines go.

Help is on the way, one way or the other- it’s called a ‘novel virus’ for a reason- maybe this will live up to your stretch goal, oh terse master of the universe- (thanks Sean)

US Army Creates Single Vaccine Effective Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

Within weeks, Walter Reed researchers expect to announce that human trials show success against Omicron—and even future strains.

DECEMBER 21, 2021 07:03 PM

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/12/us-army-creates-single-vaccine-effective-against-all-covid-sars-variants/360089/

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13 hours ago, Tharsheblows said:

Again, that's different, that's the initial regimen.  After the regimen you typically have several years of immunity.  (I'm not saying that the MRNA vaccines only last two week because they have a two dose regimen two weeks apart).

But with the C19 vaccine, most medical professionals (as reflected by the policy of several countries) do not think the C19 vaccines provide much significant immunity beyond 6 months of so.

That's no true of the vaccines for small pox, mumps, rubella, hepatitis, yellow fever etc....

Is anyone currently taking a vaccine every 6 months months for anything else?

You’re an inquisitive person 

you don’t belong in this place , it’s infested with narrow gauge , foul mouthed gits 

 

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6 hours ago, Amati said:

Help is on the way, one way or the other- it’s called a ‘novel virus’ for a reason- maybe this will live up to your stretch goal, oh terse master of the universe- (thanks Sean)

US Army Creates Single Vaccine Effective Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say

Within weeks, Walter Reed researchers expect to announce that human trials show success against Omicron—and even future strains.

DECEMBER 21, 2021 07:03 PM

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2021/12/us-army-creates-single-vaccine-effective-against-all-covid-sars-variants/360089/

 

1 hour ago, NeedAClew said:

Mixed emotions. A military vaccine....

 

It does take "getting the shot" to a whole new level!

Any info on the caliber?

 

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1 hour ago, Grog said:

 

 

It does take "getting the shot" to a whole new level!

Any info on the caliber?

 

Judging by the Moderna needle, vewy vewy small.  :ph34r:

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2 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

Mixed emotions. A military vaccine....

Vewy vewy cheap, what with the US govt owning the patent.  But I’m sure fairy tales will start to flit hither & thither.  

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25 minutes ago, 666steve said:

Omicron is a non event. Don't Panic!

 

You government is lying to you....again.

 

 

A guarantee?  What is it? Money back?  No long COVID?  No breakthrough infections?  

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On 12/21/2021 at 8:53 PM, Steam Flyer said:

OK, let's see a comprehensive list of vaccines' efficacy, to compare

- DSK

 

How many vaccines are approved with the caveat it doesn't prevent clinical disease in most people, doesn't reduce virus shedding, doesn't reduce clinical disease 3 months after third injection, may not reduce spread, but does reduce the risk of death.  Vaccinated individuals with comorbidities are still at significant risk of needing an ICU bed.   I still strongly recommend vaccination.   At this point boosters may be needed every 3 months for people over 65, diabetic, hypertensive or obese (I think I claimed a booster every 6 months might be a success back when this all started.   Fortunately Tetanus, Smallpox, Chicken pox, Measles, meningococcus, and especially cervical papilloma vaccines all perform much better.    Even TB vaccine has better bragging rights.   Its OK to admit the best tool we have is in need of replacement.   It still works (sort of).   

The claim that if everybody was vaccinated the virus would just go away has been proven a logical fallacy.  It may have been true before Delta.    If RNA vaccines don't prevent illness with Deta and don't reduce shedding, mutations would logically be continuing just as they are now.    Conservatives are guilty of spreading a huge amount of horseshit, endangering public health.   The opposite end of the spectrum does science and their own credibility a disservice when they spread Mary Poppins medical advice against a real world disease.   

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14 minutes ago, Lark said:

How many vaccines are approved with the caveat it doesn't prevent clinical disease in most people, doesn't reduce virus shedding, doesn't reduce clinical disease 3 months after third injection, may not reduce spread, but does reduce the risk of death.  Vaccinated individuals with comorbidities are still at significant risk of needing an ICU bed.   I still strongly recommend vaccination.   At this point boosters may be needed every 3 months for people over 65, diabetic, hypertensive or obese (I think I claimed a booster every 6 months might be a success back when this all started.   Fortunately Tetanus, Smallpox, Chicken pox, Measles, meningococcus, and especially cervical papilloma vaccines all perform much better.    Even TB vaccine has better bragging rights.   Its OK to admit the best tool we have is in need of replacement.   It still works (sort of).   

The claim that if everybody was vaccinated the virus would just go away has been proven a logical fallacy.  It may have been true before Delta.    If RNA vaccines don't prevent illness with Deta and don't reduce shedding, mutations would logically be continuing just as they are now.    Conservatives are guilty of spreading a huge amount of horseshit, endangering public health.   The opposite end of the spectrum does science and their own credibility a disservice when they spread Mary Poppins medical advice against a real world disease.   

Vaccines are a mandate .. good or bad 

the ultimate solution will be therapeutics 

Although profitable for the vaccine manufactures , it is simply impossible to vaccinate 8 billion people twice a year 

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18 minutes ago, Lark said:

 

The claim that if everybody was vaccinated the virus would just go away has been proven a logical fallacy.  It may have been true before Delta.    If RNA vaccines don't prevent illness with Deta and don't reduce shedding, mutations would logically be continuing just as they are now.    Conservatives are guilty of spreading a huge amount of horseshit, endangering public health.   The opposite end of the spectrum does science and their own credibility a disservice when they spread Mary Poppins medical advice against a real world disease.   

How has this been proven since the world has a long way to go to be vaccinated.  https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/health/global-covid-vaccinations/

Check out all those countries with less than half and many less than a quarter. India 40%, the African continent? A long way to go. Vaccines protect ourselves but as long as there are masses who aren't the mutations will keep going. Not even going to touch that 1st paragraph. 

Got to wonder how smallpox, measles and all those other things were eradicated.  And yes I understand this is more complicated as is the flu but the 2 things driving this now are lack of vaccines and those who refuse them. Both are bad.

edit: I see Sluggo aka dr doom just chimed in, if everyone followed his advice we would still be in the dark ages.

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15 minutes ago, slug zitski said:

Vaccines are a mandate .. good or bad 

the ultimate solution will be therapeutics 

Although profitable for the vaccine manufactures , it is simply impossible to vaccinate 8 billion people twice a year 

Imagine!

1st in the US there are no mandates. There are consequences of your decisions, yes, but no one is holding you down and giving you the jab. Feel free to be a hermit. 

Assuming none of the new vaccines under development will be better than the first is pretty damn funny. We weren't using cowpox vaccines against smallpox once better ones came out, were we?

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1 hour ago, Raz'r said:

Imagine!

1st in the US there are no mandates. There are consequences of your decisions, yes, but no one is holding you down and giving you the jab. Feel free to be a hermit. 

Assuming none of the new vaccines under development will be better than the first is pretty damn funny. We weren't using cowpox vaccines against smallpox once better ones came out, were we?

In your little world there are no mandates .  For the rest of us without a triple jab and a negative test you can’t move 

always remember that you are a very limited little man 

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4 hours ago, slug zitski said:

Vaccines are a mandate .. good or bad 

the ultimate solution will be therapeutics 

Although profitable for the vaccine manufactures , it is simply impossible to vaccinate 8 billion people twice a year 

We are in for a tragic ride then- mutations occur for 2 main reasons-

-How many sick people there are

-How sick they are

Omicron mutated in a Petri dish of very a sick heterosexual HIV population and as a result has higher mutations, number of mutations, and probably rates of mutations- Omicron may well prove more unstable as we go, simply because of the numbers of mutations in the virus, each available to be acted on by RNA.  Since RNA is a very busy bee in all this, RNA vaccines are quite literally a miracle.  Therapeutics will have to keep people from getting sick to get around this, otherwise we will always be catching up to mutations, especially if they are novel to human defenses.  But RNA is busy zipping and unzipping DNA, and jumping from DNA to other DNA in mid zip to spread the joy.  Simply enduring mass disease is a slow, brutal way to do it, as is always the case, since survival and death are the final arbiters here. To repeat myself, we fail at containment, we fail epidemic,  so all we have left is endemic?  That fails the numbers test.  We have to stop failing, unless we get really really lucky.  Public Health is blunt tool, by limiting the number of infected, and vaccines can help public health immensely, by limiting severe disease, and it’s inevitable mutations.  We need to step up our game.  The only complexity is our emotional reaction, like the reaction against masking, social distancing, quarantine etc during the 1918 flu epidemic.  But swimming against that tide, even a 2 knot tide seems almost impossible.  

Kendi really had a good question

Freedom to infect, or freedom from infection?  

Are we slaves to other’s infection?
 


 


 

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6 minutes ago, Amati said:

We are in for a tragic ride then- mutations occur for 2 main reasons-

-How many sick people there are

-How sick they are

Omicron mutated in a Petri dish of very a sick heterosexual HIV population and as a result has higher mutations, number of mutations, and probably rates of mutations- Omicron may well prove more unstable as we go, simply because of the numbers of mutations in the virus, each available to be acted on by RNA.  Since RNA is a very busy bee in all this, RNA vaccines are quite literally a miracle.  Therapeutics will have to keep people from getting sick to get around this, otherwise we will always be catching up to mutations, especially if they are novel to human defenses.  But RNA is busy zipping and unzipping DNA, and jumping from DNA to other DNA in mid zip to spread the joy.  Simply enduring mass disease is a slow, brutal way to do it, as is always the case, since survival and death are the final arbiters here. To repeat myself, we fail at containment, we fail epidemic,  so all we have left is endemic?  That fails the numbers test.  We have to stop failing, unless we get really really lucky.  Public Health is blunt tool, by limiting the number of infected, and vaccines can help public health immensely, by limiting severe disease, and it’s inevitable mutations.  We need to step up our game.  The only complexity is our emotional reaction, like the reaction against masking, social distancing, quarantine etc during the 1918 flu epidemic.  But swimming against that tide, even a 2 knot tide seems almost impossible.  

Kendi really had a good question

Freedom to infect, or freedom from infection?  

Are we slaves to other’s infection?
 


 


 

The vaccine  doesn’t prevent infection and it doesn’t prevent transmission 

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5 hours ago, Lark said:

How many vaccines are approved with the caveat it doesn't prevent clinical disease in most people, doesn't reduce virus shedding, doesn't reduce clinical disease 3 months after third injection, may not reduce spread, but does reduce the risk of death.  Vaccinated individuals with comorbidities are still at significant risk of needing an ICU bed.  ...

If you're looking for absolutes, there are very few. It's a numbers game. But it looks like you're really buying into the RWNJ disinfo here. The covid vaccines do prevent clinical disease in most (by far) people, does indeed reduce virus shedding both in amount and duration, and the time frame for decrease in antibodies AFAIK is more like 6+ months.

Details, details......

5 hours ago, Lark said:

...

The claim that if everybody was vaccinated the virus would just go away has been proven a logical fallacy.....

I disagree very strongly with this, because it hasn't even come remotely close to a threshold of getting enough people vaccinated.

Now, if people had continued getting vaccinated at the 5+ million per day that we hit in March, and we had gotten 95% of the population vaccinated, then we'd have seen whether it would "just go away."

Now, as predicted, we have such a large pool of unvaccinated people mixing with vaccinated that it's not just breeding new variants but also giving the virus the opportunity to breed variants that specifically target eluding antibodies.

- DSK

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18 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

If you're looking for absolutes, there are very few. It's a numbers game. But it looks like you're really buying into the RWNJ disinfo here. The covid vaccines do prevent clinical disease in most (by far) people, does indeed reduce virus shedding both in amount and duration, and the time frame for decrease in antibodies AFAIK is more like 6+ months.

Details, details......

I disagree very strongly with this, because it hasn't even come remotely close to a threshold of getting enough people vaccinated.

Now, if people had continued getting vaccinated at the 5+ million per day that we hit in March, and we had gotten 95% of the population vaccinated, then we'd have seen whether it would "just go away."

Now, as predicted, we have such a large pool of unvaccinated people mixing with vaccinated that it's not just breeding new variants but also giving the virus the opportunity to breed variants that specifically target eluding antibodies.

- DSK

They do that anyway.  It’s what they do.  In a monkeys on typewriters sort of way….

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4 minutes ago, Amati said:

They do that anyway.  It’s what they do.  In a monkeys on typewriters sort of way….

Yes, but numbers matter. If you want to keep out the cold & snow, is it better to have one stuck window and all the rest closed, or have 30% + of your windows open because your crazy/stupid uncles and cousins insist that closing windows is a hoax?

- DSK

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5 hours ago, d'ranger said:

How has this been proven since the world has a long way to go to be vaccinated.  https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/health/global-covid-vaccinations/

Check out all those countries with less than half and many less than a quarter. India 40%, the African continent? A long way to go. Vaccines protect ourselves but as long as there are masses who aren't the mutations will keep going. Not even going to touch that 1st paragraph. 

Got to wonder how smallpox, measles and all those other things were eradicated.  And yes I understand this is more complicated as is the flu but the 2 things driving this now are lack of vaccines and those who refuse them. Both are bad.

edit: I see Sluggo aka dr doom just chimed in, if everyone followed his advice we would still be in the dark ages.

Your facts aren't in dispute.   Vaccinated people still get sick and shed the virus.  Britain found no detected drop in virus particles.   Some may or may not be caught in mucous antibody clumps, and ineffective, when people have a better immune response (vaccinated) but this hasn't been proven.    Therefore each vaccinated person, when they get the bug and get sick, still allows a billion or so virus particles to be formed, each an imperfect copy with a few mutations.   Terminal cases may shed more virus particles then mild cases, so there may (not proven) be a reduction in virus particles for mild cases.   Both groups eventually quit shedding, either when respiration stops or when the immune system stops the virus.     There are still virus particles shed in sufficient abundance people keep getting sick.    

So the only way vaccination can significantly reduce mutations is if if it dramatically reduces the number of cases (serious, mild, non symptomatic in total).   It isn't doing that.   Vaccinated people keep getting sick, it just takes them a couple more tries before they catch it.   In my little mouse cage we had 6 non vaccinated people get CoViD and 6 vaccinated people.   There were at least 2 separate clusters of infection, from community spread.   We had similar numbers in each group since part time people were less likely to be vaccinated.   We really weren't an anomaly.    As I reported last month, every emergency doctor at IU North in Indianapolis got CoViD despite being vaccinated.   The CDC defined breakthrough infection as vaccinated people in hospital, not vaccinated people sick or in quarantine, early on.  They recognized reality this summer.    The vaccines do prevent infection for a few months.    After that efficacy rapidly drops.   Add drift by the virus, and vaccine antibodies are pensioners trying to fight the last generations war against the newest bug.    They eventually win, but the virus replicates first.   New strains evolve.  New strains evolve from vaccinated people.

We eradicated Smallpox and virtually eliminated Measles with three significant advantages and a lot more time.  1.   We had better vaccines.   They did stop people from getting sick four months after the third booster.   2.  We had fewer selfish morans that refused to get vaccinated or quarantine or do much of anything that might benefit their neighbor.    3.  There were no wildlife reservoirs.   White tail deer, mice? (Omikron) other animals possibly mean eradication would require vaccinating wildlife as well.   I challenge you to vaccinate all the mice in any major city, or all the deer in my county.   

 

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1 hour ago, slug zitski said:

The vaccine  doesn’t prevent infection and it doesn’t prevent transmission 

It limits severe disease, which is where most mutations occur.

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1 hour ago, Lark said:

Your facts aren't in dispute.   Vaccinated people still get sick and shed the virus.  Britain found no detected drop in virus particles.   Some may or may not be caught in mucous antibody clumps, and ineffective, when people have a better immune response (vaccinated) but this hasn't been proven.    Therefore each vaccinated person, when they get the bug and get sick, still allows a billion or so virus particles to be formed, each an imperfect copy with a few mutations.   Terminal cases may shed more virus particles then mild cases, so there may (not proven) be a reduction in virus particles for mild cases.   Both groups eventually quit shedding, either when respiration stops or when the immune system stops the virus.     There are still virus particles shed in sufficient abundance people keep getting sick.    

So the only way vaccination can significantly reduce mutations is if if it dramatically reduces the number of cases (serious, mild, non symptomatic in total).   It isn't doing that.   Vaccinated people keep getting sick, it just takes them a couple more tries before they catch it.   In my little mouse cage we had 6 non vaccinated people get CoViD and 6 vaccinated people.   There were at least 2 separate clusters of infection, from community spread.   We had similar numbers in each group since part time people were less likely to be vaccinated.   We really weren't an anomaly.    As I reported last month, every emergency doctor at IU North in Indianapolis got CoViD despite being vaccinated.   The CDC defined breakthrough infection as vaccinated people in hospital, not vaccinated people sick or in quarantine, early on.  They recognized reality this summer.    The vaccines do prevent infection for a few months.    After that efficacy rapidly drops.   Add drift by the virus, and vaccine antibodies are pensioners trying to fight the last generations war against the newest bug.    They eventually win, but the virus replicates first.   New strains evolve.  New strains evolve from vaccinated people.

We eradicated Smallpox and virtually eliminated Measles with three significant advantages and a lot more time.  1.   We had better vaccines.   They did stop people from getting sick four months after the third booster.   2.  We had fewer selfish morans that refused to get vaccinated or quarantine or do much of anything that might benefit their neighbor.    3.  There were no wildlife reservoirs.   White tail deer, mice? (Omikron) other animals possibly mean eradication would require vaccinating wildlife as well.   I challenge you to vaccinate all the mice in any major city, or all the deer in my county.   

 

How do you propose to provinge that the large number of vaccinated people is not resulting in a large drop in cases?

We have a hell of a lot of cases, yes. It's a contagious disease and approx half the country is convinced the answer is to pretend it isn't happening, and/or blame those trying to fix it.

(edit to add) IMHO we have significantly less cases due to vaccines... higher percentages vaccinated in the big cities, where it spreads so quickly and severely. But I am not sure how to prove it, or even that it could be proven.

- DSK

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31 minutes ago, Steam Flyer said:

How do you propose to provinge that the large number of vaccinated people is not resulting in a large drop in cases?

We have a hell of a lot of cases, yes. It's a contagious disease and approx half the country is convinced the answer is to pretend it isn't happening, and/or blame those trying to fix it.

(edit to add) IMHO we have significantly less cases due to vaccines... higher percentages vaccinated in the big cities, where it spreads so quickly and severely. But I am not sure how to prove it, or even that it could be proven.

- DSK

Case numbers are dirty,   At the onset they were artificially low due to our testing failures.    The numbers got better, but the abundance of at home tests means many positives and negatives aren’t being reported anymore,    I tested three times with the abbot Ag, free from the library,   The first two I did online, one test failure and one negative.   I did a third test five days after known exposure but didn’t bother to log on, figure out my password and have a witness.   It was clear the county didn’t care, so I just tested myself negative and went to work.    

A person could also argue we have fewer cases because so many have already had the virus, not because they got vaccinated.   I’m a big supporter of vaccines, despite their Imperfections and limitations against this virus,    I fully expect the next generation to be better, and to push the technology forward.    I’m sure things would be much worse here if half the people weren’t vaccinated.    I also don’t know how to prove it.   
 

unforrtunately vaccination won’t stop mutations,   It’s in deer and mice.   Vaccinated people get sick and spread it.   
 

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1 minute ago, Lark said:

Case numbers are dirty,   At the onset they were artificially low due to our testing failures.    The numbers got better, but the abundance of at home tests means many positives and negatives aren’t being reported anymore,    I tested three times with the abbot Ag, free from the library,   The first two I did online, one test failure and one negative.   I did a third test five days after known exposure but didn’t bother to log on, figure out my password and have a witness.   It was clear the county didn’t care, so I just tested myself negative and went to work.    

A person could also argue we have fewer cases because so many have already had the virus, not because they got vaccinated.   I’m a big supporter of vaccines, despite their Imperfections and limitations against this virus,    I fully expect the next generation to be better, and to push the technology forward.    I’m sure things would be much worse here if half the people weren’t vaccinated.    I also don’t know how to prove it.   
 

unforrtunately vaccination won’t stop mutations,   It’s in deer and mice.   Vaccinated people get sick and spread it.   
 

A lot less than would happen otherwise.

The numbers I've seen are that vaccinated people carry half to a less than a tenth of the viral load, and for less time. That was back in the pre-Omicron world. Breakthrough infections are less likely than reinfections. And we have a lot more vaccinated people than recovered people.

As we discussed before, these numbers don't mean shit if you're the one that catches it.

It's possible that Omicron is so different that it changes the numbers significantly, but it will still reinfect readily.

And yeah, I'm really tired of this covid stuff. But it's like a storm at sea, it's not over when you want it to be.

- DSK

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8 hours ago, slug zitski said:

In your little world there are no mandates .  For the rest of us without a triple jab and a negative test you can’t move 

always remember that you are a very limited little man 

Sounds like you have choice. What’s the problem?

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Two years in the history of homo sapiens is nothing. Not even an eyeblink. If we didn't have power transport we wouldn't be whining about missing loved ones. People would live their lives within several miles of their birthplace. Black Death in Eurasia lasted 7 years, 4 peak. Kept coming back. Killed off what, a quarter of the population?  

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17 hours ago, Steam Flyer said:

If you're looking for absolutes, there are very few. It's a numbers game. But it looks like you're really buying into the RWNJ disinfo here. The covid vaccines do prevent clinical disease in most (by far) people, does indeed reduce virus shedding both in amount and duration, and the time frame for decrease in antibodies AFAIK is more like 6+ months.

Details, details......

I disagree very strongly with this, because it hasn't even come remotely close to a threshold of getting enough people vaccinated.

Now, if people had continued getting vaccinated at the 5+ million per day that we hit in March, and we had gotten 95% of the population vaccinated, then we'd have seen whether it would "just go away."

Now, as predicted, we have such a large pool of unvaccinated people mixing with vaccinated that it's not just breeding new variants but also giving the virus the opportunity to breed variants that specifically target eluding antibodies.

- DSK

On the other hand, between flu vaccines and public health measures around COVID, a couple of flu strains look to have gone extinct, so the approach does work.  From our present perspective, those flues were low hanging fruit, but do present a model of success.  But there is a fear of success, among enough, unfortunately. Change either way. But I get a feeling a choice is being forced on everyone by the ‘right to infect’ crowd.

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On 12/5/2021 at 9:50 PM, NZL32 said:

Omicron spreads faster but is less virulent.

This is great news.

 

Why?..

Because.. 

1. it is showing the virus is burning itself out and the next variants should be even less virulent.

2. Omicron will spread throughout the world (and we should let it) and stop delta in it's tracks. Which means 

Basically, if you study the history of the Spanish flu it did the same thing. 

The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed an estimated 25-50 million people. By 1920, it had evolved into a significantly less deadly form, which essentially only caused the regular flu.

 

Well well this post I put up is correct and all you "know it alls" thought you knew better.,..

Well read this

https://www.smh.com.au/national/welcome-to-2022-the-year-this-pandemic-ends-20211230-p59kzf.html

 

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On 12/25/2021 at 3:59 AM, Amati said:

On the other hand, between flu vaccines and public health measures around COVID, a couple of flu strains look to have gone extinct, so the approach does work.  From our present perspective, those flues were low hanging fruit, but do present a model of success.  But there is a fear of success, among enough, unfortunately. Change either way. But I get a feeling a choice is being forced on everyone by the ‘right to infect’ crowd.

Hmm I read somewhere today that Israel is facing a double whammy

Corona and Flu.

I'll see if I can find it.

 

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2 hours ago, NZL32 said:

Well well this post I put up is correct and all you "know it alls" thought you knew better.,..

Well read this

https://www.smh.com.au/national/welcome-to-2022-the-year-this-pandemic-ends-20211230-p59kzf.html

 

Not sure who you are talking about. I for one, from the beginning of this thread, proposed this was going to be the next step in evolution towards a relatively benign but highly contagious cold-like virus, especially given that most populations are either well vaccinated or already widely exposed. And I acted on that belief by flying here to Cape Town just as the USA was closing borders, which has turned out to be an excellent decision as I've kitesurfed almost every day for the past month, and have another month ahead of me. By which time things will have calmed down even further and I should have no issue getting back to the USA. Best of all, unless I've had an asymptomatic case, I've yet to catch Omicron, despite considerable socializing, like this afternoon when a bunch of members of the WITS Mountain Club from the late 1970s are having a get-together for dinner, outdoors or course. As far as I know we are also all fully vaccinated too, either double-jab for the South Africans or triple for the rest.

I document my Cape Town kiting here - https://kiteforum.com/viewtopic.php?t=2411860&p=1158325

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This is my go to guy for finding the latest on omicron.

His previous video gave an excellent summary of how omicron avoids antibodies, but is hampered by t cells.

This is exactly why number of cases no longer matter.

 

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28 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

This is my go to guy for finding the latest on omicron.

His previous video gave an excellent summary of how omicron avoids antibodies, but is hampered by t cells.

This is exactly why number of cases no longer matter.

 

He makes good sense to me as well though that may be confirmation bias. Currently his videos are my first look for new information and my subsequent sources have generally agreed with his assessments. 

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I find it amazing how many men use this retired nurse teacher (identification in his own bio) as their authority.  

Confirmation bias is a real thing.  

Does he push D megadoses? That would make sense 

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52 minutes ago, NeedAClew said:

I find it amazing how many men use this retired nurse teacher (identification in his own bio) as their authority.  

Confirmation bias is a real thing.  

Does he push D megadoses? That would make sense 

He has encouraged D and Z, but i dont believe he pushed mega dosing.

I haven't claimed him to be an authority, but he researches the way I would and used to research covid 19 (if i now had the time). So confirmation bias, in my case, is along the lines of he does what i used to do informally for a network of companies I support.

I view him as an aggregator of recent stats and preprints that appear to form a consensus.  

- Have you found a better aggregator that provides near daily updates of delta / slash omicron in multiple countries?

- Why the focus on 'how many men' - as opposed to women?

I have nothing at all against utilizing retired nursing teachers as a resource. He is an excellent communicator, and appears to be sound in his efforts.

 

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1 hour ago, NeedAClew said:

I find it amazing how many men use this retired nurse teacher (identification in his own bio) as their authority.  

Confirmation bias is a real thing.  

Does he push D megadoses? That would make sense 

Sure it is a thing, and it is only mitigated by your ability to recognize it in yourself. Can you? 

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I actually am not interested in aggregate data across countries I am not planning/ hoping to visit soon and those data I can find.  A day or so late, don't care.

Why "men"? Part of a confirmation bias of mine. First heard of "the Doctor" on endless TE shows with lots of comments from men watching, around the last time I ever watched "one hearing."  

My confirmation bias? I like Dr. Lena Wen. Poor woman seems to care too much, she has aged visibly over the last year.

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2 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

I actually am not interested in aggregate data across countries I am not planning/ hoping to visit soon and those data I can find.  A day or so late, don't care.

Well, it seems you are not interested in risk management. I am and have to be for the people and businesses I support.

How omicron is performing in other countries and their own specific attributes (infected  2/3 shot, az vs moderna/Pfizer, hospital admittance rates, icu, 12 months death rates fort initial hospital survivors and so much more) is critical for being able to forecast what will happen in the US, with reasonable accuracy significantly ahead of US announcements.

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43 minutes ago, dfw_sailor said:

Well, it seems you are not interested in risk management. I am and have to be for the people and businesses I support.

How omicron is performing in other countries and their own specific attributes (infected  2/3 shot, az vs moderna/Pfizer, hospital admittance rates, icu, 12 months death rates fort initial hospital survivors and so much more) is critical for being able to forecast what will happen in the US, with reasonable accuracy significantly ahead of US announcements.

Not in that line of work. 

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8 hours ago, danstanford said:
9 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

This is my go to guy for finding the latest on omicron.

His previous video gave an excellent summary of how omicron avoids antibodies, but is hampered by t cells.

This is exactly why number of cases no longer matter.

 

Expand  

Expand  

He makes good sense to me as well though that may be confirmation bias. Currently his videos are my first look for new information and my subsequent sources have generally agreed with his assessments. 

Pretty good stuff, agreed. It's a little early to say "science has confirmed" anything about Omicron but the numbers are indicating more cases of less severity.

However, the total number of cases DO matter as that relates to spread -and- hospitalizations. Of these numbers, hospitalization is clearly the critical one -BUT- if there weren't any cases then we wouldn't have hospitalizations either.

- DSK

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I've watched John Campbell's daily updates from the get go and except for his unfortunate excursion into Ivermectin land, he's been pretty good. Omicron has successfully distracted him from Ivermectin and he's done a really good job of aggregating the growing evidence around it. I'm a molecular geneticist and his explanations of immune system working are pretty good. I do think he could cover the same material in a little less time each video, but kudus to him for sticking with it this long and he deserves his 2m subscribers. The Zoe Covid Project with Tim Specter is also good, but very UK focussed of course as it is based on an app there, but is different in providing their own data, analyses, and projections.

 

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His use of the royal "we" is getting a little annoying too, but he's been so good on Omicron that I'll still watch him.

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10 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

Well, it seems you are not interested in risk management. I am and have to be for the people and businesses I support.

How omicron is performing in other countries and their own specific attributes (infected  2/3 shot, az vs moderna/Pfizer, hospital admittance rates, icu, 12 months death rates fort initial hospital survivors and so much more) is critical for being able to forecast what will happen in the US, with reasonable accuracy significantly ahead of US announcements.

Well don't look for Data from OZ.

Our Trump wannabe stupid lying godbothering excuse for a PM has just thrown in the towel. Testing is now more or less confined to Rats ..and optional...if you can get one, which you can't because he didn't order any.

Sound familiar?

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On 12/19/2021 at 11:31 AM, slug zitski said:

Maybe the scientists need to study Uttar Pradesh 

230 million people , negligible Covid 

Covid-19: Uttar Pradesh govt extends night curfew by two hrs, schools shut till Jan 14

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/covid-19-uttar-pradesh-govt-extends-night-curfew-by-two-hrs-schools-shut-till-jan-14/articleshow/88696420.cms

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51 minutes ago, Mid said:
On 12/18/2021 at 8:31 PM, slug zitski said:

Maybe the scientists need to study Uttar Pradesh 

230 million people , negligible Covid 

Covid-19: Uttar Pradesh govt extends night curfew by two hrs, schools shut till Jan 14

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/covid-19-uttar-pradesh-govt-extends-night-curfew-by-two-hrs-schools-shut-till-jan-14/articleshow/88696420.cms

India is the new Sweden.

The RWNJs need some distant exotic land that they never heard of before, to claim that not avoiding the plague is actually smart.

- DSK

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5 hours ago, ShortForBob said:

Well don't look for Data from OZ.

Our Trump wannabe stupid lying godbothering excuse for a PM has just thrown in the towel. Testing is now more or less confined to Rats ..and optional...if you can get one, which you can't because he didn't order any.

Sound familiar?

It does, but I'm not sure he is necessarily wrong in this case (And I detest the man and what he stands for).

If I recall correctly i think the figures for Omicron % yesterday was about 35%?

- Overall, it would be better for oz if omicron was able to get to 90%+ because the proportional level of hospitalization with omicron is far less

- Omicron appears to be almost impossible to stop anyway. China can slow it down with extreme lockdowns, but no other country can reasonably achieve the same. Latest info I have seen (NYC) is Omicron's best targets are those with underlying conditions (e.g. imuno compromised, diabetes, 2 shots or less etc) so the oz focus should be on making sure those isolated as much as possible for the next 4 - 8 weeks

It would have been much better if the booster had got out to more Aussie arms though.  

The biggest risk I see facing Australia is not the hospital overload, but the logistics mess that will build over the next 4 weeks and a decent percentage of the workforce will be off sick on any particular day, combined with freighters avoiding oz because other markets are more lucrative than oz right now. 4 - 8 weeks of hospital turmoil, and 4 - 8 months of logistics mayhem.  

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Omicron sickouts rise to local belief as opposed to "scare tactics" "propaganda" etc. No snow plow drivers so streets are 6 inches of ice. No delivery slots for groceries. Amazon running days late. No mail delivered since Dec. 29th. 

 

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6 hours ago, dfw_sailor said:

It does, but I'm not sure he is necessarily wrong in this case (And I detest the man and what he stands for).

If I recall correctly i think the figures for Omicron % yesterday was about 35%?

- Overall, it would be better for oz if omicron was able to get to 90%+ because the proportional level of hospitalization with omicron is far less

- Omicron appears to be almost impossible to stop anyway. China can slow it down with extreme lockdowns, but no other country can reasonably achieve the same. Latest info I have seen (NYC) is Omicron's best targets are those with underlying conditions (e.g. imuno compromised, diabetes, 2 shots or less etc) so the oz focus should be on making sure those isolated as much as possible for the next 4 - 8 weeks

It would have been much better if the booster had got out to more Aussie arms though.  

The biggest risk I see facing Australia is not the hospital overload, but the logistics mess that will build over the next 4 weeks and a decent percentage of the workforce will be off sick on any particular day, combined with freighters avoiding oz because other markets are more lucrative than oz right now. 4 - 8 weeks of hospital turmoil, and 4 - 8 months of logistics mayhem.  

All of that is true, but allowing the place with open full steam ahead, timed with the festival season without foreseeing and preparing for the surge in test and demand for RATs ? Fucking criminal.

Most vaccinated people will only get mild symptoms but please, remember that it's not only the unvaccinated etc at serious risk. Old triple vaxed are filling up the ICU and dying just the same.

No warnings were made about this as grandma left her Nursing home for christmas lunch with kids.

We were made vaccine complacent. We are still being reassured that we wont get too sick by our leaders and health people. 

Emphasis needs to be put on the danger to the elderly...again.  

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Sick kids are more moving than sick people who have outlived their usefulness and are no big loss. Right, Wess? Show more coughing crying kids begging for Mommy. 

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2 hours ago, NeedAClew said:

This will get updated for Omicron. Nosepeepers imo count as "nothing" category.

20220106_182128.jpg

Beat me to it- thanks!  Trump needs to run for governor os Florida!

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On 1/5/2022 at 6:36 AM, Mid said:

The population is 205 million 

total Covid deaths 23,000

 

 

D487D34B-21D2-49DA-8C76-3A1EE8FDA31C.png

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20 minutes ago, random. said:

No 'unfortunate excursion', it's his main fucking game!  THIS ONE from a month ago complaining that facebook have blocked some of his dangerous shit!  It has to be bad for that to happen.  He's been doing for fucking ages, also with vitamin D.  He is a shill.

How about you?

scarface-tony-montana.gif

 

 

So I looked. He mocks "fact checkers" mockingly says "sci sounds quite scientific" and has a big can labeled Vit D on his windowsill. I didn't listen past that. Wonder if indeed the Doctor has ever published in peer reviewed journals what he makes of independent reviewers.

This is a cult of "insiders" getting insider alternative knowledge from a guy who  "does some readings. "  Argh. One commenter even said his rebuttal was done in a "class