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I have a friend who lives in the heart of the area that was hit hard by storm surge. When she asked me if I thought it would be safe in a closet with no windows I replied "No, probably not." Then she noted that there was a hatch in the closet that would allow her and her older brother who she...

Sad to report that the death toll has now exceeded 100 souls. Most deaths were a result of drowning. God Speed to all.

Port Charlotte to Sarasota. Sorry.

If you live in the area that is likely to be affected by the hurricane, do yourself a favor: Walk around the house this evening and document each room. You can do it by video (Best) or just take a few snapshots but try to include the expensive stuff. Upload whatever images/video you do take to...

Pretty solid move to the right in the last four hours. Bad news for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=vis

There has been a small shift to the right this monring in the model concensus. This shift may or may not stick. I am hopeful for Tampa Bay and areas north if this trend continues.

There may be a real conundrum even as we close in on Wednesday morning as to where this storm is going to end up. The steering currents are a mess when looking at a model "concensus" (There is very little). I can't stress enough how important it is to be prepared for just about anything with...

The forecast remains murky with tea leaves refusing to work together to give us a concensus on where the eyewall may eventually come ashore. The more reliable EURO is now wobbling directly offshore from Tampa. Meanwhile the GFS has just shifted back to the west a touch, which I am buying into...

Punta Gorda is likely to see some flooding from surge and rains, heavy at time as well. They may also get some tornadic activity. If the track shifts right again, they could see more significant impacts.

For now, I think you will just see some coastal erosion from sideshore winds in Cocoa Beach.

At the risk of sounding like the Weather Channel, 'Ian just exploded". Quick update on hurricane Ian. The storm went through a very rapid intensification the last six hours. The NE shear as forecast has abated and the core has a solid wrap of very cold cloud tops and intense convection almost...