83 yr old, SF to Osaka solo

[Jud - s/v Sputnik]

I think you missed my reference (or maybe ignored it):



and continued:

No - I got it.  Just trying to direct the threat away from irony and sarcasm . Horie-san is an actual sailor, instead of a mashed ‘taters grifter-drifter (but some of his ESL Russian-influenced English writing style were pure poetry...someone in that thread turned Rimas’s pronouncements, stuff he posted about dirft-a-thon, into pure gold...I did enjoy that thread.)

 

[Panoramix]

In a 19 foot sailboat? 

Definitely not a 19 footer, as common the journalist is not reporting accurately... I would say 7 to 8m (23 to 26ft).

If you are old and experienced IMHO, it makes sense to use a small boat as it will be less physical and obviously he is wise and patient enough to take his time.

 

[Ajax]

People blast off for Hawaii all the time in small boats. I don't see the big deal.

After Hawaii, well that's a different story. Another thing to consider is that he's not trying to come back to the US on the boat, as far as I know. 

 

[Kolibri]

Definitely not a 19 footer, as common the journalist is not reporting accurately... I would say 7 to 8m (23 to 26ft).

If you are old and experienced IMHO, it makes sense to use a small boat as it will be less physical and obviously he is wise and patient enough to take his time.

Latitude 38 says this, "His unique, purpose-built 19-ft aluminum cutter is designed specifically for this voyage and for its skipper, Kenichi Horie. The boat is cutter-rigged with two roller-furling headsails, a windvane and modern GPS navigation, though he also carries a sextant as he did on his first voyage in 1962."

His tracker website indicates that he's making pretty good time in such a small boat.

https://www.latitude38.com/lectronic/kenichi-horie-sets-sail-aboard-suntory-mermaid-iii/

 

[jdazey]

Definitely not a 19 footer, as common the journalist is not reporting accurately... I would say 7 to 8m (23 to 26ft).

If you are old and experienced IMHO, it makes sense to use a small boat as it will be less physical and obviously he is wise and patient enough to take his time.

Calling Webb Chiles...

 

[ProaSailor]

Definitely not a 19 footer, as common the journalist is not reporting accurately... I would say 7 to 8m (23 to 26ft).

If you are old and experienced IMHO, it makes sense to use a small boat as it will be less physical and obviously he is wise and patient enough to take his time.

From the bottom of this page: https://www.furuno.com/special/jp/horie-challenge/

船体詳細概要  (Detailed overview of the hull)

• 船体⻑ 5.83 m
  
• 全⻑ 6.05 m
  
• ⽔線⻑ 5.40 m  (water line)
  
• 最⼤幅 2.15 m
  
• 吃⽔（キール深さ） 1.50 m
  
• 重量 990 ㎏
  
• キール重量 300 ㎏
  
• セール⾯積 16.9 ㎡
  

re: "he is wise and patient enough to take his time" - 94 days when he was only 23 years old is a bit much, eh?  He expects to complete the current trip in "two and a half months" (75 days?) which would require an average VMG of 3 knots, so it may well take longer.  That's a very long time exposed to the weather while living on "Bowls of pre-cooked rice, cornflakes and shelf-stable milk".

 

[Jud - s/v Sputnik]

From the bottom of this page: https://www.furuno.com/special/jp/horie-challenge/

re: "he is wise and patient enough to take his time" - 94 days when he was only 23 years old is a bit much, eh?  He expects to complete the current trip in "two and a half months" (75 days?) which would require an average VMG of 3 knots, so it may well take longer.  That's a very long time exposed to the weather while living on "Bowls of pre-cooked rice, cornflakes and shelf-stable milk".

You go-fast guys are always in a hurry...

 

[Panoramix]

Latitude 38 says this, "His unique, purpose-built 19-ft aluminum cutter is designed specifically for this voyage and for its skipper, Kenichi Horie. The boat is cutter-rigged with two roller-furling headsails, a windvane and modern GPS navigation, though he also carries a sextant as he did on his first voyage in 1962."

His tracker website indicates that he's making pretty good time in such a small boat.

https://www.latitude38.com/lectronic/kenichi-horie-sets-sail-aboard-suntory-mermaid-iii/

That's funny, the boat looks bigger than a mini (6.5m = 21 1/3 ft ). Anyway, with such a bulb keel, he should be relatively fast for the boat size

 

[IStream]

re: "he is wise and patient enough to take his time" - 94 days when he was only 23 years old is a bit much, eh?  He expects to complete the current trip in "two and a half months" (75 days?) which would require an average VMG of 3 knots, so it may well take longer.  That's a very long time exposed to the weather while living on "Bowls of pre-cooked rice, cornflakes and shelf-stable milk".

I'll bet $100 he's already been living on "bowls of pre-cooked rice, cornflakes and shelf-stable milk" for quite some time. He's disciplined, very experienced, and meticulous. Anything can happen, of course, but he's controlling what he can control.

 

[Jud - s/v Sputnik]

Here’s another very accomplished Japanese singlehander - Yoh Aoki.  More or less of Horie-san’s generation.  Early 1970s, very small home-built plywood boat, round Cape Horn and around the world. https://www.aoki.us/class-locations-2/yoh-aokis-circumnavigation/

 

[Lark]

5.5
船速 [ノット (knots)
 
not bad for 5.4 m (17’ 7”) waterline.    

 

[Bugsy]

Go the Kenichi! 

I assume he is generally heading south-west, will later go due west then eventually turn north?  Any routers here?  

 

[Alan H]

April 8th and he's halfway to Hawaii.  He's not sailing fast but he's getting there.

https://www.latitude38.com/lectronic/horie-kenichi-passes-half-way-to-hawaii-mark/

Last couple of days have been pretty darned windy.

 

[ProaSailor]

April 8th and he's halfway to Hawaii.  He's not sailing fast but he's getting there.

https://www.latitude38.com/lectronic/horie-kenichi-passes-half-way-to-hawaii-mark/

Last couple of days have been pretty darned windy.

His tracker shows him well past "halfway to Hawaii", even on April 8th (four days ago).  But only 19.3% of the way to his goal, Nishinomiya, Japan. 



17 days & 5 hours after departure.  At that rate, the trip will take 89+ days, considerably longer than the "70-day voyage" he had planned.  Barely five days shorter than the reverse trip 60 years ago.  But something doesn't add up...  19.3% of 5,300 miles is 1,023 miles, yet he's almost to Hawaii?

From the Latitude 38 article:

Ten days into the voyage, Suntory Mermaid III was 1,850 km (about 999 nautical miles) out to sea; approximately half the distance between San Francisco and Hawaii.

1000 miles in ten days is 100 miles/day for an average speed of 4.17 knots.

I wonder if he plans to stop in Hawaii?  Latest log entry: https://www.suntorymermaid.com/sm3/2022/04/12/sm3_0412/

Signs of Hawaii
April 11 weather fine

Updated on 2022/04/12 (Japan time)

I am sailing well. I cut 800km in a straight line to Hawaii. The clock was also set to Hawaii time.
An email from a yacht companion said, "I'm heading to the course on the south side of Oahu." At night, you'll hear Hawaii broadcasts on the radio. It's a sign of Hawaii. As you get closer to Hawaii, the waves and winds become unstable. Many ships come and go. Be careful when sailing.

* All dates in the logbook text are local time.

Previous log entry: https://www.suntorymermaid.com/sm3/2022/04/11/sm3_0411_3/

Can't afford to read a book
April 10 weather fine

2022/04/11 update (Japan time)

The waves are about 4m. It's quite big. East wind 20 to 30 knots. It's progressing smoothly in the trade winds, but the drawback is that it shakes a little. Both the waves and the wind are likely to subside tomorrow.
I have piled up about 10 books. I haven't read a single book yet. The wind is strong and the waves are big every day, so it sways. I have a lot of hands to control the yacht to go in the desired direction. I can't afford it.

* All dates in the logbook text are local time.

 

[Jud - s/v Sputnik]

1000 miles in ten days is 100 miles/day 

Correct.

Put differently, M divided by X is C.

 

[ProaSailor]

Great circle distance from San Francisco to Nishinomiya is 5,374 statute miles (4,670 NM), near the Bering Sea:



Via Hilo, Hawaii is 6,633 statute miles (5,764 NM).  That's 1,094 NM further (~23%).



P.S.  San Francisco to Hilo is 2,317 statute miles (2,013 NM), which is 35% of total distance...?

 

[Alan H]

I believe he's not planning to take a great circle route. That's probably because a mess of it would be to windward. I believe he's planning on sailing more or less a TransPac route, pass south of Hawaii and hit the North Equatorial  current and ride that, and the wind from there to where he will turn north to head for Japan..

 

[ProaSailor]

pass south of Hawaii and hit the North Equatorial  current and ride that, and the wind from there to where he will turn north to head for Japan.

North Equatorial current?  The strongest equatorial current (up to 2 knots in places) is ~1,100 NM south of the Big Island, and looks difficult to stay in since eddies stray off frequently.  There is another current ~500 NM south of Hawaii that is up to 1 knot in places?  Hard to believe it's worth the trouble of going so far south (and back) to ride either current?
https://www.windy.com/-Currents-currents?currents,2022041500,13.689,-175.298,5

By the way, Typhoon Malakas is currently generating 125 mph wind ENE of the Philippines:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2022/typhoon-malakas



It doesn't look anywhere near that strong on Windy.com:
https://www.windy.com/?2022041500,26.608,146.338,5,m:enSaj5m

 

[ProaSailor]

I don't know what route Kenichi Horie will take but have revised my estimate based on some verifiable values and great circle distances (an admittedly optimistic and unrealistic assumption *).  My estimate of 89 days was based on the tracker's percent completed value (19.3%) which I cannot corroborate at all.

The values I can verify are:

• San Francisco start point: 37.818682,-122.478539
  
• Nishinomiya end point: 34.704368,135.321979
  
• Current position: 22.89,-153.4
  
• Days after departure: 17.8 days
  

Based on these values, I can compute:

• GC distance from San Francisco: 1824.6 NM
  
• GC distance to Nishinomiya: 3748.0 NM
  
• Average distance per day so far: 102.5 NM
  
• Days remaining (estimated): 36.56
  
• Total days (estimated): 54.36
  
• Percent completed (estimated): 32.7%
  

* Great circle distances are useful only when they approximate the actual track.  Major course changes must be accounted for, which is a tedious process unless I can extract the data points in this tracker, which might be possible...

 

[Jud - s/v Sputnik]

I don't know what route Kenichi Horie will take

Based on these values, I can compute:

• Total days (estimated): 54.36
  

Yeah, but he may do uncomputable things like heave-to, slow down to relieve stress on the boat, change his mind, etc etc; in addition, other complicated random chaotic unplanned shit may occur that’s not of his own doing.  So you may be slightly off in your decimal places.