Aussie Government blow it (Again)

ShortForBob

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Flying Fish2 said:
I see the Victorian Premier is talking about extending the State of Emergency and associated restrictions for another 12 months (18 months in total).  Good luck with that!

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-victoria-live-latrobe-university-students-party-during-melbourne-lockdown/live-coverage/e4c83d113632fbdbd9b1c8a5a232fb27
That's just a little bit disingenuous.

State of emergency is the Law that underpins the CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER's and the Premiers ability to implement  restrictions and remove them as needed .

It doesn't mean we are all going to be locked down for a year.

If the legislation expires and there's another outbreak, the gov is powerless to enforce restrictions like they did in the towers.

 
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RobG

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Decentralised (Google/Apple Arch) and Centralised both require over 50% of pop. Phone ownership not the problem.
I think they're all doomed to fail as they simply won't have the take–up required to be effective. I also think a typical city commuter will quickly overwhelm any such system.

My old train commute was standing in a train carriage for 30 minutes with 70 other people. Walking through a crowded train station with hundreds of other people, then queueing to exit. Then packed in three or four crowds at pedestrian crossings in the city, another small crowd buying a coffee, etc. Plus work lunch room, people in nearby cubicles, people in meetings, etc.

There would be hundreds of people every day, and considering I'd be infectious for maybe a week before I was diagnosed, there might be thousands of people to contact just from one infected person. It would be simpler to just have hundreds of pop–up testing centres and test anyone who wants a test. I think many more people would be up for that than using a contact tracing application of dubious effectiveness.

Have contract tracing applications been shown to be effective anywhere?

 

Rambler

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East Coast OZ
That's just a little bit disingenuous.

State of emergency is the Law that underpins the CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER's and the Premiers ability to implement  restrictions and remove them as needed .

It doesn't mean we are all going to be locked down for a year.

If the legislation expires and there's another outbreak, the gov is powerless to enforce restrictions like they did in the towers.
A "state of emergency" is the standard way dictators usurp the democratic principles of the state they wish to control. It is a serious temporary surrender of democratic checks and balances and extending it in this manner shows a complete disregard for good governance. The old "trust us we're here to help" doesn't wash it.

It is time for Dan's state, economic and job destroying extreme measures to be democratically tested and moderated. They failed once, spectacularly, so it was all wasted. The answer is not control, control, control. It's test and trace, only closing things down to the absolute minimum necessary to get a flare up back under control - a flare up that should be quickly extinguishable if the test and trace procedures were properly done. Dan chose control over test and trace - leaving Victoria hopelessly under equipped to deal with a flare up or even recognise they had one.

OK, allow a one month fast track declaration, then recall Parliament to condone it. Don't give the incompetent unlimited powers.

 

jack_sparrow

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Flight Centres Turner was in the Australian yesterday again with his "open up and let it rip message."

What good points he had were lost with his opening paragraph saying lock-downs don't work citing this paper below.

This paper makes makes no such conclusion. The paper states that is no definitive evidence to suggest that any policy can be seen as effective at really stopping the virus. Big fucking difference. The paper differentiates between lock-down use, matching it to the level of prepardness and their use as short term response control measures.

So big fucking misrepresentation. 

A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes

Good mortality and economy graph. Australia needs to take advantage of this position and get in step with its Asian neighbours.

Kiwis need to abandon their elimination bullshit as per that paper. They mightn't be killing many people but they are killing their economy.

UK locked down too late and got fucked.

EgMCaz3WAAI5U4S.png

IMG_20200825_080405.jpg

 

jack_sparrow

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I think they're all doomed to fail as they simply won't have the take–up required to be effective....

 ..Have contract tracing applications been shown  to be effective anywhere?
Go look at countries that have the lowest mortality, particularly east Asia and guess what the common denominator is.

If low take up make it mandatory simple.

I also think a typical city commuter will quickly overwhelm any such system.

My old train commute was standing in a train carriage for 30 minutes with 70 other people. Walking through a crowded train station with hundreds of other people, then queueing to exit. Then packed in three or four crowds at pedestrian crossings in the city, another small crowd buying a coffee, etc. Plus work lunch room, people in nearby cubicles, people in meetings, etc.

There would be hundreds of people every day, and considering I'd be infectious for maybe a week before I was diagnosed, there might be thousands of people to contact just from one infected person. It would be simpler to just have hundreds of pop–up testing centres and test anyone who wants a test. I think many more people would be up for that than using a contact tracing application of dubious effectiveness.
The places where working successfully have the most dense populations in the world with massive public transport systems. 

You don't understand their objective. Try reading my post that you replied to about the 4 pillars before writing ill-informed shit. 

They are not to promote random shotgun testing. Testing drops when cases drop goes up when it rises. To fight the fire you have to find it and hone in.

Look at testing in Sth Korea move up and down and a App country example I gave.

View attachment 386043

 
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jack_sparrow

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The answer is not control, control, control. It's test and trace, only closing things down to the absolute minimum necessary to get a flare up back under control - a flare up that should be quickly extinguishable if the test and trace procedures were properly done.
This.

 

jack_sparrow

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Flying Fish2 said:
I see the Victorian Premier is talking about extending the State of Emergency and associated restrictions for another 12 months (18 months in total).  Good luck with that!

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-victoria-live-latrobe-university-students-party-during-melbourne-lockdown/live-coverage/e4c83d113632fbdbd9b1c8a5a232fb27

That's just a little bit disingenuous.

State of emergency is the Law that underpins the CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER's and the Premiers ability to implement  restrictions and remove them as needed .

It doesn't mean we are all going to be locked down for a year.

If the legislation expires and there's another outbreak, the gov is powerless to enforce restrictions like they did in the towers.
You are being kind Short. He is a lying dangerous cunt.

 
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RobG

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Go look at countries that have the lowest mortality, particularly east Asia and guess what the common denominator is.
Correlation ≠ causation.

If low take up make it mandatory simple.
Zero chance of that happening in Australia. It will not become mandatory for purely political reasons and even if it did manage to be mandatory, making people download and install it would be impossible.

The places where working successfully have the most dense populations in the world with massive public transport systems. 
No proof that the contact tracing applications specifically have anything to do with case rates, see above.

You don't understand their objective. Try reading my post that you replied to about the 4 pillars before writing ill-informed shit. 
Stop being making spurious assumptions, just because I don't reply to every point you make doesn't mean I haven't read them, just that I don't think they're worth replying to.

The "four pillars" are just a strategy, a contact tracing application is just one tool to assist with contact tracing. The contact tracing app in Aus has been useless and nowhere is it being held up as the primary driver for success over infection spread. Useful component, maybe. But as discussed it simply won't work here for  couple of very simple, intractable issue.

They are not to promote random shotgun testing. Testing drops when cases drop goes up when it rises. To fight the fire you have to find it and hone in.
How are the current testing centres in SE Queensland not "shotgun testing"? Why was Daniel Andrews imploring Victorians to get tested when daily test numbers dropped recently? Call it what you like, but widespread, easily available testing works as one part of a strategy. It doesn't require a phone app, or data analysis of movements or contacts, or mobile phone infrastructure. It's simple, easily implemented and effective as a component for dealing with outbreaks.

I'm not saying don't have a contact tracing app, I'm just saying they're not particularly effective for a number of reasons. I would expect that the take–up rate needs to be way higher than 50%, but maybe there's a study that says otherwise. Nor am I saying random testing is a panacea, only that I think it's more effective than a contact tracing app. Just look at where responses are focussed and you'll see where the experts are putting their (our tax) money.

 
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jack_sparrow

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Flying Fish2 said:
Yes Jack I've been saying that for some time.  Great to have you on board.
No you haven't been saying THAT you lying cunt and I would throw you fucking overboard and feed you to the sharks if I was onboard with you.

I'm referring to NOW for NZ and NOT back in March.

You advocate TODAY that not just NZ, but the WORLD should have responded back THEN with NO lock-downs just like Sweden. That is regardless of the natural geographic and demographic advantages Sweden has that has saved its arse from being even further to the right for mortality on this chart.

Lying dangerous cunt 

IMG_20200825_104526.jpg

 
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jack_sparrow

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The answer is not control, control, control. It's test and trace, only closing things down to the absolute minimum necessary to get a flare up back under control - a flare up that should be quickly extinguishable if the test and trace procedures were properly done.

This.
+1.         

...Pump some real money and resources into contact tracing.
Any advance on +1  :lol:

 
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jack_sparrow

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No you haven't been saying THAT you lying cunt and I would throw you fucking overboard and feed you to the sharks if I was onboard with you.

Flying Fish2 said:
So you would get rid of your best main sheet operator based on ill defined political principles?
"Get rid off..best operator.."

Hypothetically I would have Trump on board if the cunt was a gun trimmer. However he would not be on board as all indications are he is a dead cunt in person. Maybe one race to confirm and bang his missus as the price of admission. 

If he did prove to be worse than a dead cunt and was a member of my club I would run the cunt over in the carpark. That would kill two birds with one stone. Get rid of a super dead cunt PLUS get rid of a gun trimmer that some other dumb cunt might consider putting on board.

___________________________

"based on ill-defined political principles?"

Last time I looked "death" wasn't a "ill-defined political principle." The principle there is very defined. When the heart stops beating you are fucking stone cold dead. However "minimising death" can be a clearly defined "political principle."

Therefore mortality quantum is driven by the "cause of death" and if attached to a "political principle" then that can also be clearly "defined" and so NOT "ill-defined." 

So cunt in the case of Sweden and NZ that you are so desperately trying to connect, those clearly defined "political principles" are the "economy" AND to "minimise mortality."

Both countries chose to save their economy by adopting completely DIFFERENT virus response strategies. One LIMITED "suppresion" (Sweden) the other (NZ) a very HIGH level of "suppression."

They have BOTH tanked todate in EXCESS of the "mean" -6% GDP forecast for the 2020 year. So two FAILS there. However for Sweden they ALSO killed MORE than the "mean" 500 persons/mill pop so failed at BOTH. Therefore a TOTAL FAIL for Sweden having regard to those two "political principles" they pursued.

View attachment 387208

To make this fucking TOTAL FAIL assessment of Sweden more "granular," (a phrase you like to use) on a neighbourhood basis it is this. Of the Nordic 4, Sweden had the LEAST suppression, yet the HIGHEST economy drop. 

Nordic Deaths/GDP @ 25 Aug.

5,813     Sweden   1st Q +0.1%    2nd Q -8.6%
335        Finland     1st Q -4.6%    2nd Q -3.2% 
264        Norway    1st Q -1.5%.    pending/stats show < -7%
623        Denmark  1st Q -2.0%.   2nd Q -7.4%

  View attachment 384489

To finish off on the "political" link you have introduced there is obviously a political outcome. Excess deaths caused by a political entity is called "Democide" or in short "the intentional killing of an unarmed persons in pursuant of government policy." 

Now it is pretty clear PianoMouth is off the hook but needs to get her shit together re the economy as stated. The Swedish PM has been smart enough to launch an Inquiry in advance of GDP numbers being released to cover his arse. Additional suppression measures have also been quietly introduced. 

However looking at the chart if BumFace Johnson in the UK is ever put in front of an Inquiry, he may will be fucked.

So that answers your question cunt. 

IMG_20200825_123134.jpg

 

jack_sparrow

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^^^^^^^^^

"NZ went into Lockdown Level-4..and we went into Lockdown 3 the.."

Plus last time I looked 4 comes after 3 on what appears to be a progressive response number and can applied locally or nationally. 

Only Auckland has been and currently is on Level 3 until Sunday and the city and the rest of New Zealand will remain at alert level 2 after that.

That makes you a fucking lying cunt doesn't it.

I'm referring to NOW for NZ and NOT back in March.

Flying Fish2 said:
So we agree on NOW.  Let's compare NOW with THEN.  NZ went into Lockdown Level-4 against Ministry of Health recommendations and we went into Lockdown 3 then with LESS cases.  Go figure.
ETltV7yUMAAqiBp.jpeg

 
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jack_sparrow

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Flying Fish2 said:
Um I'm up for that lottery.
Only thing your up for is the "lying dangerous cunt" award to join your "lying cunt of the month" medal.

IMG_20200823_205324.jpg

 
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jack_sparrow

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Flying Fish2 said:
What we have is 100 billion spent and 22 deaths.
NOT SPENT & $100bn is TWICE $50bn BUDGET

Lying dangerous cunt.

Budget 2020: Government's $50b Covid-19 recovery Budget biggest spending package in history

NZ DOES NOT have the world’s costliest Covid-19 response.

 

jack_sparrow

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Flying Fish2 said:
So if we look at Sweden and apply the lessons learnt to NZ then the deaths per million would be around half at most.  So 250 per million.  That is 1,250 deaths and we would be in the same position as Sweden.
" look at Sweden and apply the lessons learnt to NZ then the deaths per million would be around half at most..That is 1,250 deaths and we would be in the same position as Sweden."

Can't apply what's known now and take it back in time and halve Sweden's actual mortality rate. Not even Sweden has a time capsule to do that, much as they would like too.  :lol:

So applied equally in time. 

Sweden is 575 deaths/million. NZ 4.8 X 575 = 2,760 deaths

You should show everyone in your neighbourhood this graph...the way you would have done it. 

That neighhood would be less one lying dangerous cunt. 

IMG_20200825_134023.jpg

 
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The Dark Knight

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That's just a little bit disingenuous.

State of emergency is the Law that underpins the CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER's and the Premiers ability to implement  restrictions and remove them as needed .

It doesn't mean we are all going to be locked down for a year.

If the legislation expires and there's another outbreak, the gov is powerless to enforce restrictions like they did in the towers.
There is no need for Dan to continue having his dictatorial powers beyond this 6 months. 

All Victorians are fatigued by this 2nd lockdown and many will NOT accept a third. It's time to learn to live with the virus and not stick our heads into the sand and hope we can wish it away. We must open our domestic borders (QLD, SA, WA & Tas are a fucking disgrace) and open up our businesses and learn to work to the new normal. The states should throw all resources into contact tracing, protect the venerable and stay vigilant, but not take the the lockdown approach again.

Sweden was stupid going blindly into the pandemic without a lockdown, because the lockdown would have bought them time better understand the virus and to be better prepared. Australia has had that time to prepare, so now we need to change the approach.

The federal government should withhold funds from states that keep their borders closed. Our constitution should be changed to never again allow the borders to be shut unless is accepted by bordering states, i.e. Vic asks Tas, NSW & SA if we can close our border. 

The Victorian State of Emergency law should be changed so that it can only be used with bipartisan support and the opposition should be included in a SoE cabinet, in the same way Scomo included all state leaders.  

 

jack_sparrow

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Flying Fish2 said:
What we have is 100 billion spent and 22 deaths. 

NOT SPENT & $100bn is TWICE $50bn BUDGET

Lying dangerous cunt.

Budget 2020: Government's $50b Covid-19 recovery Budget biggest spending package in history
Flying Fish2 said:
On 21 March the NZ government signed a MOU with the Reserve bank to buy $33b of Government issued bonds.  In May this was increased to $60b.  On 20 August it was increased to $100b.  Now why increase it from $33b to $100b if you haven't used it?  This is all on the NZ Reserve Bank website under Alternative Monetary Policy.  Sharpen up Jack!
"What we have is 100 billion spent .... the NZ government signed a MOU with the Reserve bank to buy ...Government issued bonds... $100b."

"Sharpen up Jack!"

Cunt were you home schooled by a household pet?  

Primary school economics. Governments buy bonds to increase the money supply in the economy by swapping out bonds in  exchange for cash to the general public.

Fucking lying dangerous dumb cunt.

 
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