Bad Times in Mobile

http://www.al.com/news/mobile/index.ssf/2015/04/light_o_mobile_rescues_3_men_s.html

Long time lurker, had to finally make an account and contribute. I've raced against 4G before, and I'm glad they made it out, even after being run down. Props to Light O Mobile for making a great rescue. Great show of seamanship. Glad their safe, and I hope the 4G crew can get another 3ksb put together as well as the last one. I'd like to see them around the bouys again.

 
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Captain Bastard

Super Anarchist
1,992
19
I bailed on a race this weekend in the northern Gulf of Mexico. I never do that but I was on the club's Capri 22 with green crew, 20 knots of wind, a motor that would not start initially and an unknown maintenance history for the recently donated boat. My commands of head up, fall off, pinch and go to the high side were not immediately understood by the new helmsman and his son.

We approached the starting area where I noticed that the main was not set up to reef quickly and there was a halyard fouling the roller furling. I took stock and saw that our hand didn't look very strong and turned for home.

Sitting by the pool at the club, we heard USCG Mobile's many broadcasts and a boat on our race course putting out a mayday. Another boat on our course had many college student aboard that got to bail like hell as a through hull was overlooked on a recent service. There was a bad mojo in the air Saturday and my crew was awfully glad we headed for home.

 

Don'tCallMeJudge

Super Anarchist
Condolences to all. If you sail enough, eventually you will encounter something like this, if not quite as powerful. You only have to experience it once to be the first boat next time to take sails down and secure them and to put on life jackets and harnesses. If your are racing In a fleet, every boat will watch the others to see what they think and what they are doing. Your decision to err on the side of caution will likely mean other boats follow your lead. Particularly if you are respected. It's a literal statement that lives may be saved b/c of your actions.
Thank you! It may or may not have been possible when Saturday's AL storm roared in, but I truly applaud that advice. Many of us tend to live under pack mentality (lemmings being led off a cliff, etc), but I've seen potential tragedies avoided when a few respected sailors recognized danger approaching, and bailed out before being told to do so.

Years ago, I was one of the dummies too busy racing to notice the weather approaching, and only spotted the problem (big dark problem) heading my way after I first noticed a champion sailor turning and burning for home. I turned around, immediately saw why the champ was bailing out, and quickly followed suit. Most of the fleet started realizing something was up, and moments later the sailors (or most of them, anyway) abandoned and ran for shelter. Most of us got to shelter moments before gale force winds and Thor's lightning bolts arrived.

 
G

Guest

Guest
Sorry to hear about the loss of life, sounds like it is a fairly fun race with daysailers making the bulk of the fleet. i think the previous posters giving people grief for not having floaties on or not picking the weather are being a bit harsh. I would not expect open ocean seamanship on this stretch of water, and to that I think the sailors did very very well. I have not been out in 65 but close to it, its not pleasant and there is no way you can beat into it, anyone saying they can was not in 65, end of story. The only real option is to run with it or try to go across it to open water. Getting sails down would have been all but impossible for any number of boats once the wind hit 65, too hard to go forward, too much bounce, too hard to control or even pull the sail down. The window for action was small, sound like some were hit a LOT harder than others. The vid above looked like a fresh day on our gulf, ugly but not unfamiliar and certainly doable if its going the way you want, the boat is set up and the crew good. In fact a few mad sailors look forward to the opportunity to send it in those conditions

PFD's are another story, they should be on board, serviced and available. Only a silly crew would refuse in those conditions, but those of you hand wringing, moralising about making it illegal etc- get a life. This is the real world, you make your choices including eschewing cotton wool. My take, race management should have interpreted the weather forecast, issued warnings and ensured the SI's included a vhf watch.

 
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Snore

Super Anarchist
3,180
391
DTSP and on OPB
I respectfully disagree with those that place ANY blame on the race organizers.

Perhaps it is my previous race experience in other water sports, but--- "You pays your money and you takes your chances." Race committees have zero responsibility for storms, wind, rain, leaping rays that may impale you, sun spots that may disable GPS, falling space debris, or anything else that can happen on the water.

It is the entrant's/ skipper's responsibility to assess the current sea-state, condition of the vessel and her crew. The skipper then acts as (s)he sees best to complete the course. In the extreme the skipper may contact race central and advise they are withdrawing.

Just a contrary opinion.

 
G

Guest

Guest
Actually I agree with you, under ISAF we skippers make that choice. However I have entered races where the PRO cancels due to adverse forecasts. No club wants their sailors drowned and some events are riskier than others.

 
Agree and disagree.
If I am starting a PHRF "big boat" race, the assumption is the boats can take care of themselves.

For dinghy classes, which frequently include juniour sailors, I for one would not just ignore potential weather issues. I have in the past moved a course closer to the club and kept one eye on the phone radar the whole time. We got the whole series in, but if one of the storms in the area had come near we had time to get everyone recovered. I don't feel like sending a 420 out to battle a major storm is the same thing as a J-40.

This race seems to have been a mix of dinghy/beach cat types and big boats and I have never dealt with both at once.

I respectfully disagree with those that place ANY blame on the race organizers.

Perhaps it is my previous race experience in other water sports, but--- "You pays your money and you takes your chances." Race committees have zero responsibility for storms, wind, rain, leaping rays that may impale you, sun spots that may disable GPS, falling space debris, or anything else that can happen on the water.

It is the entrant's/ skipper's responsibility to assess the current sea-state, condition of the vessel and her crew. The skipper then acts as (s)he sees best to complete the course. In the extreme the skipper may contact race central and advise they are withdrawing.

Just a contrary opinion.
 
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2,689
0
OA washing their hands of responsibility is all well and good. But sometimes sending a race off in these forecasts just makes for a crap and unenjoyable event which requured time and money to prepare for. A wasted weekend. Sometimes postponing or delaying may be the smarter option, not necessarily the liability driven one. Especially recognizing the ability and competence of the fleet.

 
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MisterMoon

Super Anarchist
2,700
454
I was able to look at the scratch sheet before they pulled it from the web. Most of the boats were keel boats from 24-40'. There were about 12-18 beach cats, a mix of Hobie 16's and other makes. Otherwise the biggest fleet of small boats was ~8 Catalina 22s. I don't recall any centerboard dinghies in the mix.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
Agree and disagree.

If I am starting a PHRF "big boat" race, the assumption is the boats can take care of themselves.

For dinghy classes, which frequently include juniour sailors, I for one would not just ignore potential weather issues. I have in the past moved a course closer to the club and kept one eye on the phone radar the whole time. We got the whole series in, but if one of the storms in the area had come near we had time to get everyone recovered. I don't feel like sending a 420 out to battle a major storm is the same thing as a J-40.

This race seems to have been a mix of dinghy/beach cat types and big boats and I have never dealt with both at once.

I respectfully disagree with those that place ANY blame on the race organizers.

Perhaps it is my previous race experience in other water sports, but--- "You pays your money and you takes your chances." Race committees have zero responsibility for storms, wind, rain, leaping rays that may impale you, sun spots that may disable GPS, falling space debris, or anything else that can happen on the water.

It is the entrant's/ skipper's responsibility to assess the current sea-state, condition of the vessel and her crew. The skipper then acts as (s)he sees best to complete the course. In the extreme the skipper may contact race central and advise they are withdrawing.

Just a contrary opinion.
Again I want to issue sincere condolences to all who lost a loved one and to all of those who were put through challenging conditions where their lives were likely in jeopardy. A harrowing experience at best. In an effort to best understand the developing and forecast atmospherics for Mobile county on April 25th, I offer the following NWS watches and warnings and observations from a well known Alabama Weather Blog:

Tornado Watch for South Central Alabama Until Noon

Sat, 04/25/2015 - 05:06
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 108

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

500 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

TORNADO WATCH 108 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM CDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR

BULLOCK BUTLER CLARKE

COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON

CRENSHAW DALE ELMORE

ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY

HOUSTON LOWNDES MACON

MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY

PIKE RUSSELL WILCOX

Storm Prediction Center Day One Severe Weather OutlookSat, 04/25/2015 - 05:08
Here is the SPC Day One Severe Weather Outlook with the individual threat probabilities on the left and the categorical outlook map on the right.

As you can see, most of Alabama is in the standard severe weather risk, which is called “slight”. There is an “enhanced” risk area to the north over northern Tennessee into Kentucky, where dynamics will be better later this afternoon and the airmass hasn’t been worked over my morning convection.

There is a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot over much of Alabama as you can see in the top left panel. To the north, there is an area of 5% probabilities.

The severe hail probability is 15% over much of Alabama as is the severe wind (>58 mph) probability.

Stay weather aware over South Central Alabama this morning in the tornado watch area until 8 a.m. then everyone needs to pay attention this afternoon to see if another round of severe thunderstorms can develop.

One Severe Thunderstorm Watch Already, Maybe Another SoonSat, 04/25/2015 - 14:29
By Bill Murray, 2:25 p.m. Saturday

An approaching upper level disturbance coming across southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi this afternoon. Strong thunderstorms extend now from Southwest Alabama through southern Mississippi into southeastern Louisiana. This system has weakened in the past hour or so but still pose a threat as they move into unstable air.

But a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for South Alabama and Northwest Florida downstream of this activity.

Storms that formed on the northern edge of the area of rain and storms have weakened as well. But the SPC is monitoring conditions across South Central Alabama where instabilities have risen to over 1,500 j/kg south of US-82. Strong wind shear will produce organized thunderstorms, including supercells. Low level helicities are not high, so damaging winds and hail are the main threats, not tornadoes.

There could be an additional severe thunderstorm watch to the north of the new one over South Alabama.

Sat, 04/25/2015 - 16:04
Heavy thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across Tuscaloosa County in West Alabama. They are not severe, but they do have lot sof lightning and heavy rain as well as gusty winds.

They are moving ENE and will move into Jefferson County shortly. They will reach downtown Birmingham before 4:30.

Across South Central Alabama, storms were developing across Perry and Bibb County, moving toward Clanton.

The SPC has moved the slight risk severe weather outlook southward about 50 miles, sort of as expected. It is depicted in the radar graphic as a yellow line extending from Grove Hill to Centreville to Columbiana and Talladega. The dark green line indicates the northward extent of the Marginal Risk and the light green line delineates the northern extent of the threat of storms.

South of US-82, CAPE values are over 2,000 j/kg giving the storms plenty of octane to work with. There is strong speed shear as well. Mid-level lapse rates are moderately strong as well. But there is almost no low level helicity, so tornadoes are not an issue for now. Overall moisture levels have dropped over North Central Alabama as the special balloon release from BMX indicated at 1 p.m. But low level dewpoints are still quite juicy, running in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Storms over South Alabama are stronger, including a couple of severe ones. Two severe thunderstorm watches cover South Alabama, but one has not been issued for South Central Alabama yet. Winds gusted to 59 mph at Fairhope when the storms were over Mobile Bay.
The watches and warnings above provided some insight to the sailors to what the day was to bring to Mobile Bay. I will need to go back and look at the archives to see if NWS issued the appropriate warnings in a timely manner for the super-cell that rolled through the Bay Saturday afternoon. I also have no information on Wx1 or Wx2 timely transmissions but would hope that every boat with a VHF would have been monitoring the bulletins given the watches posted for the area that morning.

My greatest hope is that everyone reading this thread will gain a better understanding of the weather forecasting resources available and that everyone, including dinghy sailors invest in a VHF and a watertight bag and make sure it is fully charged and operational before heading out on the water.

I share the opinion that the race committee should bare no liability and that it is the responsibility of each skipper to determine the seaworthiness of their vessel and capabilities of their crew when making the independent decision to go to sea. For those questioning the RC on putting Junior Sailors on the water in dinghies I submit that it is the parent's and professional coach's (If there are any present) that should assist in making safety determinations when it comes to weather. I know thunderstorms are a way of life in the south but this tragedy should serve as a permanent reminder that we must err on the side of caution when taking to the water when severe weather is possible. OFF SOAPBOX


 
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Cancelling races for chance of thunderstorms in general would mean no racing from Maryland to Florida from May to September more or less. DryArmour is doing some work for this specific forecast for this specific place.

OA washing their hands of responsibility is all well and good. But sometimes sending a race off in these forecasts just makes for a crap and unenjoyable event which requured time and money to prepare for. A wasted weekend. Sometimes postponing or delaying may be the smarter option, not necessarily the liability driven one. Especially recognizing the ability and competence of the fleet.
 
2,689
0
Cancelling races for chance of thunderstorms in general would mean no racing from Maryland to Florida from May to September more or less. DryArmour is doing some work for this specific forecast for this specific place.

OA washing their hands of responsibility is all well and good. But sometimes sending a race off in these forecasts just makes for a crap and unenjoyable event which requured time and money to prepare for. A wasted weekend. Sometimes postponing or delaying may be the smarter option, not necessarily the liability driven one. Especially recognizing the ability and competence of the fleet.
Thats really interesting Joe, but nobody ever mentioned canceling for chance of thunderstorms. If you read back in the thread I think therewas plenty of public evidence of severe Tstorm warnings well before the race. high winds, hail, etc. RCs also often buy private weather

info (Commanders, etc) with even more detailed forecasts.

 
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Max Rockatansky

DILLIGAF?
4,030
1,105
Vibroman described it exactly how it rolled: "As far as I can tell there was no cloud formation visible that would warn people just an increasing darkening overcast. The cold wind off the tops approached at 65 knots! most boats were towards the SW part of the bay so by the time the squall line hit the water and became visible out of the gloom it was too late."

At Dauphin Island, it did not go as black as would have been expected with such a front. The predictions and the weather, all day, had been passing north.

The conditions were different from Dauphin Island to upper Bay: 64kt recorded at Fort Morgan, 72 recorded at Mid-Bay Light.


There was absolutely no indication from NOAA, at race start, that such a squall would appear. As far as I'm concerned, no fault whatsoever on the part of the RC.

 
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DryArmour

Super Anarchist
Vibroman described it exactly how it rolled: "As far as I can tell there was no cloud formation visible that would warn people just an increasing darkening overcast. The cold wind off the tops approached at 65 knots! most boats were towards the SW part of the bay so by the time the squall line hit the water and became visible out of the gloom it was too late."
Max- The description matches overhead development of a severe thunderstorm but I submit that is to be expected given the forecast and the cold air mixing with relatively very warm Gulf waters over Mobile Bay. I am not saying novice sailors would have recognized these signs but the NWS watches and warnings provided at least a hint that the weather could turn SEVERE on Saturday afternoon. What is the solution to best ensure this does not happen again? I am not sure but it is worth discussion by this community to try and identify the warning signs in the hopes that the next time the conditions mirror Saturday's events, sailors will seek safe harbor sooner if possible.

 

Max Rockatansky

DILLIGAF?
4,030
1,105
From Will_R at catsailor.com forums, bold mine:

"So, I was in the race; a few details being left out that need to be considered.

- The DI race is an 18 mile long distance race; the more "durable" cats tend to race out on Saturday and back on Sunday. The rest of us sail back after finishing.

- The regatta host rotates between three area clubs with boats attending from all over the region; most of the cats launched from FYC, but a couple left from BYC as well. e.g. there was not a central point where all of the boats and sailors were guaranteed to be at one time.

- VHF radios were not a required item, but they did contact the skippers and request that we had one on the boat for purpose of over early notifications. Even if we had carried one, it would have been turned off and stowed; had it been turned on, I don't know that we would hear it assuming the RC did make some kind of announcement about weather.

- Due to a "hiccup" with race management, the start was postponed by an hour; looking at it now, that extra hour would have made a big difference...

- Historically entries have been as high as 175 boats; this year there were ~120 boats, of which 10 were beach cats. The cats included a N20c, highly modified T, C2 F18, Bim 18HT, H20, N17 with the balance being H16's; quite a broad range of speed there.

- We watched the forecast all week; my primary means are the NOAA marine site and wunderground. As of Saturday morning, the NOAA didn't even give a small craft advisory for Mobile Bay and simply stated, "chance of thunderstorms"; not, "HOLY SH*T, WATCH OUT!!"

We saw the line on the radar, but based on speed and distance expected that it would be there later in the evening.

- Brief synopsis of our day:
Great race conditions, somewhat windy, but nothing crazy (gusts to ~22) with a moderate chop. The boat performed better than expected and we crossed ahead of Kirk on the N20c by ~1/2 a mile with ~8 miles to go. We went for flat water and didn't tack to cover; he got a huge lift up the inside and beat us by ~5 minutes in a now light and dying breeze. We finished, turned around and put the kite up for the ride home.

Breeze came back a bit and we were clocking 15-16 downwind back to FYC; we heard thunder with about 8 miles to go and started looking at the radar. I keep my cell in a dry bag in my vest for just this reason. The storm still looked a ways off, but was closer than expected. As we went, we noticed that it had sped up since that morning and were making sure to get to the beach as quickly as possible.

We passed Kirk and hit the beach about 5 minutes before he did; pulled the boat up and started to drop cloth. He needed help getting his boat up the beach, so we went to assist before getting our own sails down. By this time lightning was CLOSE and we knew it was about to be on us.

Pulled the jib and rolled it, had the main on the deck and were starting to roll it up as well when all hell broke loose. The N20c started making it's way across the yard at the YC and was only saved by the trap wires snagging in a tree. Kirk helped us hold the boat down, but even without sails up, it took all three of us and it was still trying to get up and go. I was sitting on the stbd hull, looking up wind with one hand on the mast rotation and one on the unrolled mainsail.

As the only person with the vantage point to look up wind, I was calling flying boats and debris as stuff came our way to warn Brian and Kirk. I feel certain that we experienced 70+ mph winds and was surprised that we didn't have one of the big trees just windward of us come down. I've been outside and within 1/4 mile of a tornado and that is the closest thing that I can think of to what this was like, but instead of lasting for 60-90 seconds, the insane wind held for 5-6 minutes! We could see that out on the beach the sea state was BAD and that the wave had built to ~5'. Even with the T trying to fly away, we yelled back and forth regarding the whereabouts of the others....

Unfortunately after several minutes, I couldn't keep the mainsail down any longer with one hand, but couldn't even think about letting go of the mast. The deep chord on the Marstrom 20 mast makes it oscillate like mad in that much breeze; it would have destroyed itself and almost certainly flipped the boat had it not stayed under control. Even with it held straight into the wind, it took all three of us to hold the boat down.

The wind finally backed enough to go recover the now thrashed main (this was it's first race) and start removing debris from the boat and finish our tear down. We immediately started trying to contact the other cat sailors, but to no avail; within another 30-45 minutes though, they started to trickle in, driven by good Samaritans from where they had come ashore during the storm. The last of the "fast" boats to be accounted for was Andy and Rundell, they had sailed past the YC and had to feel their way along the shore to find the club again. Lucky for them, they hit the beach just a minute or two before the storm and were able to hold their boat down even with the sails up.

By now emergency vehicles and news crews were showing up at FYC, we decided to eat at the club and ended up talking to a couple of news crews and other sailors to start piecing together what had transpired out on the water.

Got up Sunday and went to pick up pieces of boats strewn up the coat line.

- Regarding best course of action if faced with those conditions:
Having been on the water, ~1 1/2 miles off shore when the storm hit on the last day of the Worrell in '02, I can tell you that flipping and/or turtle isn't a very fun situation. The boat was still doing 4-5 kts on it's side, which resulted in breaking the top 3-4 battens and damaging the main sail. Honestly though, you don't have a choice, there is no keeping them upright in those conditions. The boats that were destroyed were ridden "to the beach" capsized and then pile driven into rock and wood seawalls. They would have never been able to go full turtle and if they had, even more complications could have arisen; imagine now having mast, sails, rigging, loose in the water and having to negotiate that while trying to not get smashed into the shore by 6' waves filled with debris blown/washed off of nearby docks.

Best possible plan, get to shore and ride it out from there if possible.

I don't know the H16 guys, but almost all of the other cat sailors are long time friends and I consider us very lucky to have not had someone seriously injured or worse.

It's my opinion that for the most part, we, the beach cat group, were better prepared than most of the monohull guys. We're forced to deal with the elements and aren't provided with the shelter, comfort and assurance that most mono's bring. For those reasons, we tend to be more appropriately dressed for the conditions and are almost always wearing a life jacket.

The number one thing that I told the news people and we discussed as a group was that, we are our own arbiters of safety and our brain is the #1 piece of equipment we carry. Know your limits/abilities, maintain your equipment, plan within reason for the conditions and at some point, that's the best you can do short of taking up golf..."

 
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