Brexit WTF, WTF

[MiddayGun]

What a shit show.
The Conservatives might have been known as a set of cunts when it came to most things, but the one thing they at least had a good reputation for was fiscal responsibility.

That myth has been well & truly blown away.
Why the fuck, just for once, can't we get someone competent in charge?

 

[AnIdiot]

Why the fuck, just for once, can't we get someone competent in charge?

Brexit.

The Tories were granted a solid majority by an electorate that allowed itself to be seduced by populism.
It was always a stupid idea; anyone who pointed that out was culled from power, leaving a dearth of talent. There is no-one competent left, or at least no-one who can garner enough support to make a difference.

I fear we're in damage limitation until an election can be called... whether the outcome will be an improvement remains to be seen.

(um, sorry- that was rhetorical, wasn't it?)

 

[dogwatch]

What a shit show.
The Conservatives might have been known as a set of cunts when it came to most things, but the one thing they at least had a good reputation for was fiscal responsibility.

That myth has been well & truly blown away.
Why the fuck, just for once, can't we get someone competent in charge?

I am considering writing to my Conservative MP, saying I'd like to vote for a government offering control over public spending versus revenue and could he recommend such a party please?

On your last point, my liking of Sunak decreased though the leadership campaign as he threw ever more red meat to the party membership; nevertheless he did offer some find of fiscal responsibility.

 

[huey 2]

BoE warns of risk to UK financial stability as it intervenes in gilt market​

Emergency action follows historic sell-off in government bonds

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

 

[LeoV]

In short; We’re seeing the Bank’s rock and hard place problem. Move to stabilise the gilt market and sterling falls.

But but I can hear the argument; we have low depth, we can borrow. Even with higher rates...
One factor is that gross debt isn't really what matters. If public sector balance sheet has a load of assets too then a high debt isn't as worrying.
But the UK's net worth is among the weakest around. Do you want to lend even more to a country at the bottom of that league?

UK's net worth;

Public Sector Balance Sheet Database: Overview and Guide for Compilers and Users

This paper provides an overview of the Public Sector Balance Sheet (PSBS) Database, a dataset developed in the context of the October 2018 Fiscal Monitor. The dataset provides a comprehensive picture of public wealth for 38 countries, and a narrower picture for further 37 countries and...

www.imf.org

Interesting times, trust comes by foot, bolts by horse.

 

[huey 2]

Ive always liked what Rory has had to say through the years....I remember a conversation between Sir Alex Allan KCB and himself and loved his engagement......and Ive never been into Tory ism but his Conservatism I can see a point to and his description of first past the post a point in case....so when he's 75 ,he's looking forward to a position as a Junior Minister refreshing

 

[huey 2]

there is so much happening right now ... incredible stuff and 'F..in Scary'

 

[Waynemarlow]

So you are blaming the government for a technical Gilt problem caused by the Pension Industry ( some of the highest earners ) selling off Gilts en masse due to their lack of foresight by throwing all their eggs into one basket, Gilts. I guess the low interest rates over the last decade may just have something to do with that but if our highly paid elite take the easy road ( Gilts ) and don’t ever game plan / foresee a few bumps in the road over the life of a pension, then we can only expect more Bank interventions.

You may want to watch the interview with Paul Tucker ex BOE on Peston last night to get a much better picture of what’s going on before putting the short term boot into Truss and KwasI.

 

[LeoV]

The next weeks UK will spend 120 billion to pay for energy cap and buying up bonds to shore up the pension funds.
Simple thread;

 

[LeoV]

Ken Clarke;
The lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.

Funny UK government is doing what they blamed the EU did.
Unelected bureaucrat with no clue about finances destroys a country reputation. Printing money, borrowing, etc it is all there.
We have had enough from experts.

 

[RobbieW]

So you are blaming the government for a technical Gilt problem caused by the Pension Industry ( some of the highest earners ) selling off Gilts en masse due to their lack of foresight by throwing all their eggs into one basket, Gilts. I guess the low interest rates over the last decade may just have something to do with that but if our highly paid elite take the easy road ( Gilts ) and don’t ever game plan / foresee a few bumps in the road over the life of a pension, then we can only expect more Bank interventions.

You may want to watch the interview with Paul Tucker ex BOE on Peston last night to get a much better picture of what’s going on before putting the short term boot into Truss and KwasI.

To gain a fuller understanding I found this piece usefull, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63065413. Gilts are generally held to secure a less volatile position to cover current liabilities ie pensioner payments - what do you suggest they should have been holding to secure that position ?

 

[huey 2]

a film to put on a sailing brexshit site .. thats set on a motor yacht..... ha clean the sails....and shows the lack of morality .....

perfectly..

 

[Waynemarlow]

Gilts are generally held to secure a less volatile position to cover current liabilities ie pensioner payments - what do you suggest they should have been holding to secure that position ?

Yup when the interest rates are at record lows, the money boys have to make their bonus's somehow. When governments of all persuasions over the last 2 decades want to borrow money rather than face up to the inevitable, that of paying their way, lets create another money tree and borrow to the hilt on gilts. The city does well, the money boys make their bonus's, the tax payer pays them and as there's a lot of them, its not a lot per tax payer. Perhaps if we had been paying a more meaningful base interest rate over the last decade there would have been no need to have all our eggs in the Gilt basket.

At stages it will go pop when the money boys and financial media overstep the mark and go into a hysterical lather over a government outlining how they wish to cut taxes back on the upper end ( all these tax cuts will make absolutely no difference to 43% of people in the UK as they pay no tax ) and believe that, as history would back up, if you tax to high you get less tax. As we are now paying the highest ever percentage on tax and now have an extra burden of the debt created from both Covid and now bankrolling energy costs, do we tax higher until the pips squeak or do we try another option ?

 

[LeoV]

do we tax higher until the pips squeak or do we try another option ?

Hunt for the next Unicorn.

 

[RobbieW]

Yup when the interest rates are at record lows, the money boys have to make their bonus's somehow. When governments of all persuasions over the last 2 decades want to borrow money rather than face up to the inevitable, that of paying their way, lets create another money tree and borrow to the hilt on gilts. The city does well, the money boys make their bonus's, the tax payer pays them and as there's a lot of them, its not a lot per tax payer. Perhaps if we had been paying a more meaningful base interest rate over the last decade there would have been no need to have all our eggs in the Gilt basket.

At stages it will go pop when the money boys and financial media overstep the mark and go into a hysterical lather over a government outlining how they wish to cut taxes back on the upper end ( all these tax cuts will make absolutely no difference to 43% of people in the UK as they pay no tax ) and believe that, as history would back up, if you tax to high you get less tax. As we are now paying the highest ever percentage on tax and now have an extra burden of the debt created from both Covid and now bankrolling energy costs, do we tax higher until the pips squeak or do we try another option ?

How about we have a chancellor who goes to market with a set of costed proposals rather than one who's gone with one that increases borrowing without showing how that gets covered ? The uncertainty caused by the current position led to the market collapse that happened

 

[Waynemarlow]

How about we have a chancellor who goes to market with a set of costed proposals rather than one who's gone with one that increases borrowing without showing how that gets covered ? The uncertainty caused by the current position led to the market collapse that happened

To be fair, no proposals would stack up through out the world as Japan is finding out, such is the flack from Covid and Putties war. If he had gone with costed proposals of any kind, such is our debt that the market would have gone against him.

The question is that as the 2nd least indebted nation compared to our GDP in the G7, why arent the other 5 not being hauled through the mill as we are by the markets ?

 

[dfw_sailor]

To be fair, no proposals would stack up through out the world as Japan is finding out, such is the flack from Covid and Putties war. If he had gone with costed proposals of any kind, such is our debt that the market would have gone against him.

The question is that as the 2nd least indebted nation compared to our GDP in the G7, why arent the other 5 not being hauled through the mill as we are by the markets ?

Fundamentally it is because the other 5 are relatively stable and a known quantity, whereas the tories are rudderless, unable to leap out of the brexit mess combined with lack of strategic energy planning, and some covid overhang.

It's is now far more risky to do business in England (fud for business) and assets needed to be revalued appropriately (via currency drop).

Or you raise interest rates to attract capital again.

 

[dfw_sailor]

And further, capital sentiment will override analytics until a recovery of some form or another is irrefutable, together with political/policy stability.

You lot are in for a long long ride.

 

[Waynemarlow]

Fundamentally it is because the other 5 are relatively stable and a known quantity, whereas the tories are rudderless, unable to leap out of the brexit mess combined with lack of strategic energy planning, and some covid overhang.

So you are saying France is politically stable ? Are you saying France‘s debt + it’s share of Euro debt is not way of out of kilter with the markets expectations of the pound ?

Are we talking a storm in a teacup here much like Brexit which the doomsayers predicted mass unemployment and a run on the pound on day one ? Six years on it’s taken a COVID pandemic and a European war like we have never seen in our generations before to bring to a head all the failings of our ruling elite and have a media hysteria that you would swear was the end of the world was imminent before any sort of financial crisis, let alone record low unemployment figures that most of Europe can only aspire to.

Brexit is almost inconsequential in the current state of affairs and yet muppets here on this thread still rate it as the prime cause of the current mess, doh

 

[dfw_sailor]

So you are saying France is politically stable ? Are you saying France‘s debt + it’s share of Euro debt is not way of out of kilter with the markets expectations of the pound ?

Are we talking a storm in a teacup here much like Brexit which the doomsayers predicted mass unemployment and a run on the pound on day one ? Six years on it’s taken a COVID pandemic and a European war like we have never seen in our generations before to bring to a head all the failings of our ruling elite and have a media hysteria that you would swear was the end of the world was imminent before any sort of financial crisis, let alone record low unemployment figures that most of Europe can only aspire to.

Brexit is almost inconsequential in the current state of affairs and yet muppets here on this thread still rate it as the prime cause of the current mess, doh

No, I am saying that the economic world has already priced in the normal fluctuations that occur in France, even the Greeks have their own 'normal' etc.

Britain had it's normal, high street was somewhat sane, then somehow they all lost the plot and are now unpredictable. So the markets have priced in asset risk and affected the currency.

Beyond rate rises, the next economic requirement will be government austerity, which won't go down well with the public.

Britain's leadership hasn't decided what Britain should look like last brexit, can't see the wood for the trees, and the markets are reacting.

Edit.... Adding...

In other words Britain is getting a currency downgrade because the pollies have forgotten how to govern for quite some time now.