Brexit WTF, WTF

Jambalaya

Jambalaya

Super Anarchist
6,855
193
Hamble / Paris
Flaming said:
You've gone for the headline there, not the actual point.

If you listen to the end of his answer (and the bit that quite unsurprisingly that source clipped out) you see that the point he's actually making is that to negotiate to go back in will result in years of uncertainty, and uncertainty hurts growth.

And that's really the main point. We have left we can't just "go back in". There isn't actually a way to quickly rejoin just the single market. To do so requires membership of the EEA, and Norway are fairly clear that they would block that. So to get "membership" of the single market would require years of asking and negotiating. And all the while investment would stall, as who's going to invest in the UK when you don't know what the rules are going to be in 5 years time?

The only way to get back what we have lost is to rejoin the EU in full. And that will not be a short term project. It is very unlikely that the EU would welcome us back until it was absolutely clear that there was very strong support in parliament for this. Which unfortunately is going to take at least a decade, whilst the public wake up to the fact that they were sold a pup.

He's absolutely right in one sense, that the best way forward from here is to negotiate a "better" trading relationship. And it's also absolutely clear that for that to happen there needs to be a different set of people in charge, without the absurd fixation on FoM, who can make sensible decisions on what the UK can compromise on in order to minimise the damage going forward. And who haven't just pissed the EU off with 5 years of lies and bullshit. The jury is out on if Starmer has the freedom to actually do that, or if he's still too scared of the "red wall" voters and their irrational hatred of foreigners.

But that will still result in something that isn't as good as what we had.

In a way, I applaud Starmer for playing the hand he's dealt rather than just saying that of course growth would be better if we hadn't left the EU. Unlike the Tories he does at least seem to have recognised both the limitations of the situation we find ourselves in (both domestically politically, and our terrible negotiating position with the EU) and also that we do need a new approach, as what we have very clearly is terrible.

And if you want another example of quite why we're so pissed off at you, here's a great example. The changes you have wrought on the country in the name of English exceptionalism are not like those that are made after every change of government, where they can be largely reversed at the next GE if the electorate wishes. You've baked this crap into the UK for at least a decade. That's a decade of lost opportunity, lost growth, lost international reputation.
And that will mean we'll forever fall back relative to the EU and other developed nations.
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We voted for changes as versus Brussels management and policy the UK is truly truly exceptional. Brussels can't even get the basics right so to be fair everyone is exceptional versus them.

Being in the SM and CU would make no difference to GDP growth. That's what Starmer said and he is right. Even the most pro EU models which said we would have no trade deals with anyone (not EU, not Japan to any other the dozens of others we rolled over) and had lots of pro EU assumptions still only came to GDP impact of a drag of 0.2% GDP per annum.

Outside the EU the UK is going to materially outperform France and Germany. Wait and see. We are only just exiting Covid, and maybe not even yet.
 
F

Flaming

Anarchist
680
316
UK
Jambalaya said:
Outside the EU the UK is going to materially outperform France and Germany. Wait and see. We are only just exiting Covid, and maybe not even yet.
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I wish I shared that optimism, but I see absolutely no reason to assume it to be true. Remember, I've spent the last 6 years looking for an opportunity for my business, which exports to over 100 countries, and I haven't found one. I also haven't found a single company who say they have found one. Where are they going to come from? If a company who manufactures in the UK and exports globally can't see advantages, then where are they?
What I have found is a bunch of extra costs and delays.

Assume for a second that you're wrong, that the UK does not outperform France, Germany etc. After what period of time would you start to wonder if you've made a mistake?

And, more pertinently, how long do you think the UK public are going to wait for the economy to outperform our neighbours? If it takes 5 years, do you think they will wait patiently? Already the lead for "in hindsight it was a mistake to leave" is close to 20 points. If the benefits aren't obvious in 5 years, if in fact we're still lagging behind....

We're already past the point where you guys simply saying it's going to be great is enough. We've now been out of the EU for 2 years, with no tangible benefits to point to. If it doesn't start showing benefits soon the public and media will turn. Blame the pandemic, blame Putin... Doesn't matter... What matters to people is if they are worse off than they were before.

Honestly, right now I'm very happy with the odds of a decision to apply to rejoin being taken inside the next decade.
 
Sailabout

Sailabout

Super Anarchist
3,791
186
Here there and everywhere
rask jente said:
Quoting Fox News. Sums up the whole thread.
Click to expand...
//www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/11/compulsory-purchase-will-be-an-option-to-close-down-farms-ministers/

www.dutchnews.nl

Compulsory purchase will be an option to close down farms: ministers - DutchNews.nl

The cabinet has published its plans to reduce nitrogen-based pollution in the Netherlands and, as widely leaked, they include a buy-out plan for farmers. Ministers have confirmed that 2,000 to 3,000 farms and other major polluters located close to environmentally sensitive areas will be offered...
www.dutchnews.nl www.dutchnews.nl
 
Dex Sawash

Dex Sawash

Demi Anarchrist
2,650
876
NC USA
rask jente said:
Quoting Fox News. Sums up the whole thread.
Click to expand...

Has anyone quoted Sunday Sport yet?


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cms

cms

Super Anarchist
2,867
782
Le Minihic near St. Malo
I see that of the trumpeted 800 billion new post Brexit trade deals, 2/3 is just trade with EU and most of the rest rolled over deals which UK already had as part of the EU.

Not many authoritative individuals or bodies in UK seem to agree with Jambo's utopian pie in the sky optimism.
 
Albatros

Albatros

Super Anarchist
4,015
512
and yet they are on strike ... holding my breath for wayne to chime in tellin us it all will be resolved in 50 years or so, Jamba to go all nuh-cuh-lar exclaiming it's all humbug and things are going spiffingly and maybe even another snide remark from Dogwatch ... can't wait....

350.jpg
 
Waynemarlow

Waynemarlow

Super Anarchist
4,455
323
As far from the sea as possible in the UK
Ah but things are just beginning to go pop in the EU, another fishy story for you, evidently Germany's gas supplies were the cause.

abcnews.go.com

Huge Berlin aquarium bursts, releases flood of fish

German police say a huge aquarium in the center of Berlin has burst, causing a wave of devastation in and around the popular tourist attraction
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com

And another little fact of Germany's total reliance on China and previously Russia. Audi's ETron series of cars has 159 key components manufactured in China. If China holds those up from reaching Germany, Audi's total future is ferked.
 
L

LeoV

Super Anarchist
13,450
4,350
The Netherlands
In short;
Brexit promised them a new dawn of independence, deregulation, prosperity based on global trade deals and lower taxes.

Instead, the reality is one of diminishing UK influence, dud trade deals or none at all (notably with the US), extra bureaucracy, reduced exports, lower gross domestic product and higher taxes.

Not even talking about immigration or that the WTO is on the brink off collapse.

I miss the days Brexiteers were creative and found weird solutions like GATT and Vienna.
It is now only boring refusal of facts for everyone plain to see. Rees Mogg at Question Time was a hoot. Or big shoves of Whataboutism.

Polls are clear, big mayority of UK citizens do not like Brexit. Well done.
 
Jambalaya

Jambalaya

Super Anarchist
6,855
193
Hamble / Paris
LeoV said:
In short;
Brexit promised them a new dawn of independence, deregulation, prosperity based on global trade deals and lower taxes.

Instead, the reality is one of diminishing UK influence, dud trade deals or none at all (notably with the US), extra bureaucracy, reduced exports, lower gross domestic product and higher taxes.

Not even talking about immigration or that the WTO is on the brink off collapse.

I miss the days Brexiteers were creative and found weird solutions like GATT and Vienna.
It is now only boring refusal of facts for everyone plain to see. Rees Mogg at Question Time was a hoot. Or big shoves of Whataboutism.

Polls are clear, big mayority of UK citizens do not like Brexit. Well done.
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I don't like the Brexit we have. Far too close to EU

The opinion polls said Remain would win and we all know what happened there

We will never rejoin
 
Jambalaya

Jambalaya

Super Anarchist
6,855
193
Hamble / Paris
I'd actually missed this. EU politicians aren't even required to declare payments from countries paying them for influence !

What the Actual Fuck.

www.politico.eu

EU Parliament touts anti-corruption plan as political war erupts over Qatar scandal

Parliament leaders will present a reform plan in January as political parties ramp up blame game over the Qatar bribery scandal.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

Of course this shouldn't surprise me given level of corruption throughout Brussels. It institutionalised, no receipts required etc etc
 
F

Flaming

Anarchist
680
316
UK
F

Flaming

Anarchist
680
316
UK
Jambalaya said:
I don't like the Brexit we have. Far too close to EU

The opinion polls said Remain would win and we all know what happened there

We will never rejoin
Click to expand...
You do realise that all the issues we currently face economically are because we just made it harder to trade with our main customer?
And you think the remedy is to be less close? The only way to be less close would involve tariffs. Which just ends us as an effective trading nation.

Honestly, I'm starting to think you're just a parody.

It's absolutely clear that within a very short period of time the calls to "do something" about the fact that we're being outstripped by the EU will start to become rather loud.
Your only hope is that we aren't outstripped by the EU, and nobody serious thinks that's at all likely. Already companies up and down the land are loosing business due to trade friction. And what is there to replace that? Nothing.

And the only thing that there is to do is to try and realign with the EU. It won't be rejoining as such, but we'll be back aligned with the single market within a decade, possibly sooner depending on the size of Labour's majority at the next election. Rejoining will then be inevitable as there's sod all point in just being aligned. It'll take a while though.
 
Laser1

Laser1

Super Anarchist
1,736
768
Westcountry
Flaming said:
Honestly, I'm starting to think you're just a parody.
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Well I hope he doesn't need a hospital soon in the current climate. (or any of us for that matter) What is it, 4500 EU doctors and 22.000 nurses left.

I hope nobody needs to change his nappy at home :ROFLMAO: The social care workforce gap produced by Brexit has been estimated to range from 350,000 people in the most favourable scenario, to 1.1 million people in the worst-case scenario by 2037

What a mess.
 
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