Buy Copper

Sea warrior

Super Anarchist
2,899
560
Chicagoish
Last time the US economy took a massive shit, the Chilean Peso was trading at around 450 to the $US (commodity bubble) nowadays its around 830 to the buck. 
 

But the only investment advice I can give anyone is to not listen to a word I say with regards to investing.

lol

 

mikewof

mikewof
45,023
1,118
Copper seems a decent buy, still about $4.60/lb, still mostly untouched by inflation, I think this is good advice, I can't imagine it going down in price.

But in-road inductive charging ... doesn't seem likely to me, too inefficient compared to just plugging them in, huge infrastructure investment for marginal return, and unlike the plug-ins, it can't be time-shifted, and the power can't be pulled out of the EVs for peak loading.

 

Blue Crab

benthivore
15,490
2,424
Outer Banks
Infrastructure a a challenge but: "Such a system is in place for heavy vehicles along a toll road in northern Italy." Next up is Detroit. Zap!

 

mikewof

mikewof
45,023
1,118
Infrastructure a a challenge but: "Such a system is in place for heavy vehicles along a toll road in northern Italy." Next up is Detroit. Zap!
That is pretty neat, but I suspect that it follows the grandfathered trolly lines and the operators get the original trolly exemptions and deductions.

The problem with inductive charging is that the coils need to be very carefully aligned, and even when they are aligned, they are about 40% less efficient than plug-in charging. When the coils aren't well aligned, the efficiency can go lower than 10% of wired charging. All that wasted inductive charging goes to heating up the ground below the street and the vehicle itself.

But aside from the widespread inductive charging, I think your example in Detroit is awesome, especially if the EVs can stay on rails, that could bring the charging efficiency close to the same as a wired connection. They would be modern-day trollies, and commuters seem to have an enduring love for trollies.

One other investment option for metals that are critically needed with EVs, actually buy actual Rare Earth Element wire and store it in your business.

 
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Blue Crab

benthivore
15,490
2,424
Outer Banks
That is pretty neat, but I suspect that it follows the grandfathered trolly lines and the operators get the original trolly exemptions and deductions.

The problem with inductive charging is that the coils need to be very carefully aligned, and even when they are aligned, they are about 40% less efficient than plug-in charging. When the coils aren't well aligned, the efficiency can go lower than 10% of wired charging. All that wasted inductive charging goes to heating up the ground below the street and the vehicle itself.

But aside from the widespread inductive charging, I think your example in Detroit is awesome, especially if the EVs can stay on rails, that could bring the charging efficiency close to the same as a wired connection. They would be modern-day trollies, and commuters seem to have an enduring love for trollies.

One other investment option for metals that are critically needed with EVs, actually buy actual Rare Earth Element wire and store it in your business.
I'd guess the search for RE and the like will be the cause of the next world war.

 

mikewof

mikewof
45,023
1,118
Thereby reducing supply and causing additional mining and refining.
REEs aren't conventionally mined, they don't vein at epithermal vents. They have to be extracted barely a grain at a time from the bulk material. It's an incredibly filthy business, to the point that China has begun to outsource the extraction to West Africa and South America, while still maintaining that 95%-some Chinese control of the REE industry. Even U.S. ore from Mountain Pass is shipped to China for leach refining, we can't do it in the USA in a way that is both cost competitive and compliant with EPA requirements.

The problem with REEs now isn't that we don't have sufficient supply for dopants -- which use infinitesimal amounts -- but rather that they are being used wholesale for marginal boondoggles like EVs and the F-35. Like helium, we're wasting REEs and falling into China's "drug dealer" trap with them. They made them cheap for so long, got the world hooked and then they reel back their supply. Leveraging their oversupply won't necessarily only lead to additional extraction it would just as likely raise the price for match demand.

REEs aren't like petroleum, or gold, or copper or silver, they are widespread in legacy continental crust, and when someone finds an areas with a higher concentration, like in the valley west of Las Vegas, the concentration is only slightly higher than anywhere else. It's a brute-force process, even in the best of scenarios.

 
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mikewof

mikewof
45,023
1,118
I'd guess the search for RE and the like will be the cause of the next world war.
They're everywhere ... on every continent. They're just expensive to extract and refine using conventional methods. They will be much cheaper to extract using ion separation methods with in-situ leach. But we are unlikely to see that in our lifetimes. The short-term play is on metals like Holmium, Samarium, Lanthanum. And you can buy the rods and wire are relatively low price ... and it isn't a collectible market like gold, silver or platinum, it can be purchased directly by thin film manufacturers who need it for sputtering. A few kilos of certain dopants could keep a production line running for months.

 

Blue Crab

benthivore
15,490
2,424
Outer Banks
Buddy had a butload of facts about damage done mining rare earths. I was thinking of access to Antarctica's resources to start the next war.

 

Mrleft8

Super Anarchist
25,807
3,487
Suwanee River
The problem with inductive charging is that the coils need to be very carefully aligned, and even when they are aligned, they are about 40% less efficient than plug-in charging. When the coils aren't well aligned, the efficiency can go lower than 10% of wired charging. All that wasted inductive charging goes to heating up the ground below the street
Reduced snow plowing costs, as well as fewer fender benders.....

 

Zonker

Super Anarchist
9,312
5,236
Canada
The math doesn't work out. Way too much copper needed, losses in inductive charging.

Charge your battery powered car at one point.

Use overhead wires and have your transit run on electricity (about 1/2 of Vancouver's bus fleet is electric and has been for decades)

Have transit light rail using electricity 

image.png

 

Ed Lada

Super Anarchist
19,180
4,674
Poland
Copper seems a decent buy, still about $4.60/lb, still mostly untouched by inflation, I think this is good advice, I can't imagine it going down in price.
And it's unlikely to go up much in price either.  

You are probably too young to remember (although you will claim you remember it well) the great silver spike in 1979-1980 when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market.  It hit a high of $132.00 per oz.  A year later it was $44.00, and today it is $23.00. (All prices are adjusted for inflation to the 2022 dollar).  What those idiots and other fools that were buying up as much silver as they could at ludicrously high prices, is how common silver really is.  And there's a hell of a lot more copper in the world than there is silver.  If copper would suddenly spike, just like the 'silver rush' in 1980, people would be scavenging, stealing and getting copper from everywhere and anywhere which would kill the high price just as it did to silver.  The price of copper already dropped 5% this year.  If it does increase, the prediction is around 4% a year for the next ten years.  Hardly a get rich scheme, especially with today's inflation.  But hey, go ahead and buy it up!

 Copper Price

 
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