CA Solar Project - Pricing Thoughts?

Chris in Santa Cruz CA

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We are looking to replace our 22 year old solar system with a more modern one though the old one is still likely running at 80% of 3.5KW design spec. New system is 8.8KW and they are quoting intitially 40K USD separate from a new roof or 28K after 30% Fed Tax credit. Are we in the ballpark?
 

Raz'r

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De Nile
We are looking to replace our 22 year old solar system with a more modern one though the old one is still likely running at 80% of 3.5KW design spec. New system is 8.8KW and they are quoting intitially 40K USD separate from a new roof or 28K after 30% Fed Tax credit. Are we in the ballpark?
We've done the math a few times, and removing the old system, producing electrons at zero cost, is hard to justify. Can you add a 2nd panel set and leave the existing ones doing their thing? Using your numbers, would take us about 25 years to pay that off. Using present value of money? doesn't add up.
 

Chris in Santa Cruz CA

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We've done the math a few times, and removing the old system, producing electrons at zero cost, is hard to justify. Can you add a 2nd panel set and leave the existing ones doing their thing? Using your numbers, would take us about 25 years to pay that off. Using present value of money? doesn't add up.
We could theoretically add panels and get if different inverter so to speak. They are pushing the get it before the upcoming change and lock a new 20 year program in. Guess I am going to the spreadsheets. Thanks.
 

Diarmuid

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Laramie, WY, USA
We are looking to replace our 22 year old solar system with a more modern one though the old one is still likely running at 80% of 3.5KW design spec. New system is 8.8KW and they are quoting intitially 40K USD separate from a new roof or 28K after 30% Fed Tax credit. Are we in the ballpark?
We did this a couple years back. Our 2003 panels only made 135W each when new, and they'd faded to maybe 75-80% output in the summer heat. They cost $6 a watt twenty years ago, not including the tracking mounts or charge controller! We wanted more output for faster battery charging, and the option to retire the wind turbine next time it shits the bed.

New panels were just slightly larger, a couple inches in each dimension, but they produce 320W each. Huge upgrade in power density. We're seeing at least 2.5X output gain. Delivered cost (CA to WY) was about $1500 for the panels, or $0.63/watt. Installed cost came out to just over $1/watt. But that's with me doing all the work. Dunno what the CA pricing environment is these days, but around here it has long been the rule that panels are about 50% of materials cost; balance of systems is the other 50%; dealer & install adds only about 25% onto materials cost, b/c authorized dealers get kit at reduced prices (40-60% under retail) & pretty much live on that markup. It's a hard way to earn your crust!

We did not have to substantially modify our racking, tho I did replace the 2x2x1/8" angle iron to provide more support & ensure we hit all available mounting holes. That cost $160. We had to add a second charge controller to handle the additional amps (~$600). Existing wiring was fine, had been sized for possible upgrade when installed. Much depends on how much if any of your existing infrastructure can be reused.

So the question here is are dealers marking the cost of systems way up, pocketing state and federal subsidies, so your installed cost where it would be minus tax credits & subsidies? I'd definitely ask for a detailed bill of materials with prices on it, then check to see what Unbound Solar and the altE store are selling those same panels for. Also advise getting an estimate from a second installer. IME, the pricing can vary by up to 2X. I'd honestly be angling for something around $2-2.50 per watt (system net cost) out of your pocket, after tax credits. Is CA adding state incentive these days? They used to be very generous.




1674077575773.png
 

Chris in Santa Cruz CA

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We did this a couple years back. Our 2003 panels only made 135W each when new, and they'd faded to maybe 75-80% output in the summer heat. They cost $6 a watt twenty years ago, not including the tracking mounts or charge controller! We wanted more output for faster battery charging, and the option to retire the wind turbine next time it shits the bed.

New panels were just slightly larger, a couple inches in each dimension, but they produce 320W each. Huge upgrade in power density. We're seeing at least 2.5X output gain. Delivered cost (CA to WY) was about $1500 for the panels, or $0.63/watt. Installed cost came out to just over $1/watt. But that's with me doing all the work. Dunno what the CA pricing environment is these days, but around here it has long been the rule that panels are about 50% of materials cost; balance of systems is the other 50%; dealer & install adds only about 25% onto materials cost, b/c authorized dealers get kit at reduced prices (40-60% under retail) & pretty much live on that markup. It's a hard way to earn your crust!

We did not have to substantially modify our racking, tho I did replace the 2x2x1/8" angle iron to provide more support & ensure we hit all available mounting holes. That cost $160. We had to add a second charge controller to handle the additional amps (~$600). Existing wiring was fine, had been sized for possible upgrade when installed. Much depends on how much if any of your existing infrastructure can be reused.

So the question here is are dealers marking the cost of systems way up, pocketing state and federal subsidies, so your installed cost where it would be minus tax credits & subsidies? I'd definitely ask for a detailed bill of materials with prices on it, then check to see what Unbound Solar and the altE store are selling those same panels for. Also advise getting an estimate from a second installer. IME, the pricing can vary by up to 2X. I'd honestly be angling for something around $2-2.50 per watt (system net cost) out of your pocket, after tax credits. Is CA adding state incentive these days? They used to be very generous.




View attachment 568468
Many, many thanks for taking the time to respond in such a thoughtful manner. I appreciate it very much. Will be doing a bunch more work based on this start. So I guess I have a 3500watt system (old) and we are looking to do an 8800 watt system.
 

Chris in Santa Cruz CA

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We did this a couple years back. Our 2003 panels only made 135W each when new, and they'd faded to maybe 75-80% output in the summer heat. They cost $6 a watt twenty years ago, not including the tracking mounts or charge controller! We wanted more output for faster battery charging, and the option to retire the wind turbine next time it shits the bed.

New panels were just slightly larger, a couple inches in each dimension, but they produce 320W each. Huge upgrade in power density. We're seeing at least 2.5X output gain. Delivered cost (CA to WY) was about $1500 for the panels, or $0.63/watt. Installed cost came out to just over $1/watt. But that's with me doing all the work. Dunno what the CA pricing environment is these days, but around here it has long been the rule that panels are about 50% of materials cost; balance of systems is the other 50%; dealer & install adds only about 25% onto materials cost, b/c authorized dealers get kit at reduced prices (40-60% under retail) & pretty much live on that markup. It's a hard way to earn your crust!

We did not have to substantially modify our racking, tho I did replace the 2x2x1/8" angle iron to provide more support & ensure we hit all available mounting holes. That cost $160. We had to add a second charge controller to handle the additional amps (~$600). Existing wiring was fine, had been sized for possible upgrade when installed. Much depends on how much if any of your existing infrastructure can be reused.

So the question here is are dealers marking the cost of systems way up, pocketing state and federal subsidies, so your installed cost where it would be minus tax credits & subsidies? I'd definitely ask for a detailed bill of materials with prices on it, then check to see what Unbound Solar and the altE store are selling those same panels for. Also advise getting an estimate from a second installer. IME, the pricing can vary by up to 2X. I'd honestly be angling for something around $2-2.50 per watt (system net cost) out of your pocket, after tax credits. Is CA adding state incentive these days? They used to be very generous.




View attachment 568468
Smart to upsize the conductors on initial install.
 

Diarmuid

Super Anarchist
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Laramie, WY, USA
Smart to upsize the conductors on initial install.
We had thought I might need to just add two panels to each tracker, if they weren't keeping up with demand. So we ran high-quality #6 copper to the house, tho our current was just 30-35A/array at 24VDC. Copper was cheap in 2003. :) I wired up the new panels for 48VDC, so even with the 250% increase in wattage, current is still a manageable 41-43A. The Outback MPPT charge controllers downconvert to match the (nominal) 24V battery voltage.
 

Chris in Santa Cruz CA

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We had thought I might need to just add two panels to each tracker, if they weren't keeping up with demand. So we ran high-quality #6 copper to the house, tho our current was just 30-35A/array at 24VDC. Copper was cheap in 2003. :) I wired up the new panels for 48VDC, so even with the 250% increase in wattage, current is still a manageable 41-43A. The Outback MPPT charge controllers downconvert to match the (nominal) 24V battery voltage.
do it once, you knew you were going to be there a while

there is really something to being on the same land for decades, oh the trees I should have planted when we first got here!
 

Diarmuid

Super Anarchist
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Laramie, WY, USA
do it once, you knew you were going to be there a while

there is really something to being on the same land for decades, oh the trees I should have planted when we first got here!
I've planted hundreds. Nearly all of them died.:(

1674146676663.png


(When I bought this property, my very amused arborist friend listened to my plans for windbreaks, a small apple orchard, foundation plantings. He said: "Look around. Notice there is nothing taller than 6 inches as far as you can see. Probably a reason for that.")

ETA: As a caveat, my gut feeling that your system should come in +/- $20k didn't possibly allow for inflated PV panel prices & supply shortages. That might be pushing up installed cost significantly, tho again panel cost is only 35-40% of a typical system.
 
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Diarmuid

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Laramie, WY, USA

The
?
what kind of turbine
what has been failure modes
ect

?
Bergey Windpower XL.1, 1000W at 8.25' diameter. Failure modes: all of them. No really -- everything that can possibly fail has failed. This is not unusual in any small wind turbine, tho Bergey has brought it to a fine art.

usb 037.jpg




usb 035.jpg

usb 032.jpg

Add: stator melting (3), rectifier failure (4), slip rings melted (2), chafed wire insulation, mounting bolt fatigue-sheared, nosecone falling off (it's currently in the shop, awaiting FRP repair from its latest departure), burned out capacitors on the power center b/c undersized, etc.

Wind turbines break a lot. At least, they do in the kinds of places where it's worth having one, like Wyoming.
 

Mike in Seattle

Super Anarchist
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Latte land
Wind turbines break a lot. At least, they do in the kinds of places where it's worth having one, like Wyoming.
Bummer
I really like the small turbine concept, and have looked at B's literature (years ago).

This sound like engineering issues, when the same stuff breaks over and over, and about everything ends up breaking.
, and I see no way to depower the blades,
, and that hub,
,

These guys gotta get this stuff right
, if they want to be taken seriously.
( not just the little ones, but megawatt class too)
 

Diarmuid

Super Anarchist
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Laramie, WY, USA
The XL1 has a folding tail to govern blade speed, which works (sortakinda). Noisy as shit tho, as the rotor plane turns 90 degrees to the wind & the tips stall hard. It has simple pultruded FG blades (no twist or taper), which would be okay except two of the mounting bolts are in line & you get fractures. Slip rings melt when wet snow packs the nacelle, so they had to engineer a shroud for them. The rest of the failings are either due to undersizing electrical components (we do get 48 straight hours of peak output winds here), using terrible Chinese steel in their castings, or just the hardships that go with sticking an electricity-making machine outdoors on a tall metal pole and asking it to spin at high RPM for two decades in one of the windiest places in the US.

wind speeds.jpeg


Small wind is a study in engineering compromise and design spirals. Getting any sort of production from a rotor under 12' diameter is almost impossible, but that's about the size where you need a crane to install & service it. The Bergey made sense when solar PV was weak and expensive, and when we needed loads of amps for my woodworking shop -- day and night, rain or shine. Now that solar PV is cheap and I'm throttling back my work hours, the turbine becomes optional. If it breaks this year, I'll fix it. If it breaks again after that, I'll probably drop the tower & give it away. It was more fun when I was 35 than it is twenty years later. ;)
 
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Fah Kiew Tu

Curmudgeon, First Rank
10,655
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Tasmania, Australia
This is odd because the old Jacobs wind plants had a reputation for being bullet-proof. Maybe the more modern designs are engineered to the point of materials failure and have a hell of a lot more output per kg.

Anyway, even on boats I think wind plants are a maintenance PITA. I've never even considered installing one on my country place, rather pony up for a ton more PV panels. At least they have no real moving parts.

FKT
 

Diarmuid

Super Anarchist
3,839
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Laramie, WY, USA
The smaller Jakes built in the 30s and 40s were pretty great, & some are still running all over the world. Their 1980s turbines were also sturdy, but nearly all of them were 17-20kW, have 31' rotor diameter, and weigh 2000lbs.
 

LeCanard

Quack, quack, quack…
I had solar panels installed last week. 16 panels, theoretically producing 6kVA. Each panel is sending info to a server as well. So it is easy to monitor if one of them doesnt deliver. And as each panel has its on inverter, a faulty one can easily be replaced. 25 years warranty for them.
We have lots of sunny days here in southern France, and at the moment, we are uploading energi to the powergrid (and get payed for it). Estimated time to breakeven in cost is 8 years.
 
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Chris in Santa Cruz CA

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I had solar panels installed last week. 16 panels, theoretically producing 6kVA. Each panel is sending info to a server as well. So it is easy to monitor if one of them doesnt deliver. And as each panel has its on inverter, a faulty one can easily be replaced. 25 years warranty for them.
We have lots of sunny days here in southern France, and at the moment, we are uploading energi to the powergrid (and get payed for it). Estimated time to breakeven in cost is 8 years.
I think we are going to do 2nd aray instead of replacing and adding. The new panels are nice.
 
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