CHI-MAC Race Wx

[stayoutofthemiddle]

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 Glad I'm sitting this one out this year. Going to go from a drifter on Sat to a hard beat on Sun...

 

[olshitsky]

Can't someone just reply and give an elaborate explanation why the models are wrong and it wont' be miserable.  Tell me an outright lie so I can enjoy the rest of my week, because it's clear that I won't be enjoying my weekend.

 

[ftbinc]

Hey oshitsky

wind will be 8-12 out of the wsw. Sky's will be sunny.  Overnight they will back to the ese the go east all day sunday. Temps in the upper 70s and sunny.  No wind above 12 and none below 8.  

Does this heplp you get through the week?

 

[olshitsky]

Hey oshitsky

wind will be 8-12 out of the wsw. Sky's will be sunny.  Overnight they will back to the ese the go east all day sunday. Temps in the upper 70s and sunny.  No wind above 12 and none below 8.  

Does this heplp you get through the week?

And the bugs?  No bugs either?!?

Talk dirty to me.

 

[lartaunt]

Forecast is looking MUCH better this morning!  The GFE is still showing some nasty winds but NOAA has backed off and all the other models look decent.   I hope so,  not really up for another beating this year.

 

[hmsmweasel]

I hope you're right

 

[stayoutofthemiddle]

Not sure what you guys are looking at...

SailFlow shows a close reach start (1pm) then it clocks and by Sat night is on the nose and a beat for most of the race through Monday when it shuts off completely and you will be sitting by the Manitou, not the Straights by then because your VMGs will have been so poor with it being on the nose for 80% of the race!

 

[More Cowbell2]

South Huron Buoy forecast for Sunday. 

SUNDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to
7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

 

[hmsmweasel]

Then the sun and flies will come out, and you'll run out of beer and have to drink cooler water

 

[stayoutofthemiddle]

South Huron Buoy forecast for Sunday. 

SUNDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to
7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Where is the buoy? Is that the North Lake one? I need to go dig up the NOAA buoy map...

 

[More Cowbell2]

Where is the buoy? Is that the North Lake one? I need to go dig up the NOAA buoy map...

My bad

South Lake Michigan, not Huron.

My head is still in the PH Mac.

 

[Skull and Bones]

.TODAY...North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable around 10 kt
this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...South winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
.THURSDAY...South winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt.
Waves 1 to 3 ft.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 5 to
8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
.FRIDAY...Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft
occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to
8 ft.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to
15 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
.SATURDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to north 10 to
20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
.SUNDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to
7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

 

[hmsmweasel]

If that SW holds up for a few hours that might be good to make it up the lake a bit before the Northerly kicks our asses

 

[austin1972]

I was just up by Point Betsie for 2 weeks. The Lake is ready to flip, which makes everything totally unpredictable. That said, there's been some good pressure on a regular basis.

Of course, there was this too...

 

[DryArmour]

The tea leaves are arranging. Eat your Wheaties. Bring big crew.

If the forecast this morning is correct:  Wind 16-24 G 31. T-Storms, Possible waterspouts, big chop.

Please keep in mind things could still change a lot between now and race day so don't pull the plug yet if this looks like too much for you and the crew but be prepared for it.

 

[Cal20sailor]

I hope that someone with more CYC-Monroe experience than me will comment.  But if it blows 30 out of the Southeast tonight, rafting (and maybe even just docking) at Monroe will be a challenge.  I've seen that harbor with strong SE winds and the amount of wave reflection/superimposing can be very impressive.  Not saying you will have a problem, but I would much rather be at Burnham tonight if it's a true 30.  

 

[fucket]

Looks like the models flipped a bit. Sailflow has it calmer than they had the past few days while the Euro model has it honking.

 

[hmsmweasel]

So DA, that said, which shore do you like for flatter water?  From Windy.com and SailFlow it looks like it will be a touch easterly so heading to MI shore might be good

 

[DryArmour]

So DA, that said, which shore do you like for flatter water?  From Windy.com and SailFlow it looks like it will be a touch easterly so heading to MI shore might be good

If the race were today and the model for Saturday were applied to today's racing the Michigan shore is better. BUT*** that of course may change...

 

[Cal20sailor]

So DA, that said, which shore do you like for flatter water?  From Windy.com and SailFlow it looks like it will be a touch easterly so heading to MI shore might be good

How are you defining flatter?  Just less height?  You might want to think about steepness (H/L).  Waves forming from a closer upwind shore will be much shorter in length and more chop-like; not necessarily faster for boat speed.  I'm guessing Mark is looking at wind shifts much more than any wave considerations.  

An awful lot can change in the next 48hrs.