CHI-MAC Race Wx

WTF.  PredictWind forecasts look completely different...These are all for midday saturday.

PWG:

image.png

PWE:

image.png

GFS:

image.png

ECMWF is about the same as GFS, a little less breeze...

 

More Cowbell2

Super Anarchist
3,859
552
Great Lakes
Still looks lumpy to me.  South Michigan Buoy forecast

.SATURDAY...North winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. A few
gale force gusts. Chance of waterspouts in the morning.
Intermittent showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the
morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves building
to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 15 to
25 kt. Chance of waterspouts. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Waves subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
.SUNDAY...Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of waterspouts.
Waves subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
.MONDAY...Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 1 to
3 ft. 
 

 

1sailor

Super Anarchist
I think the forecast has actually gotten worse today! :eek:
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.

 
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
Too early

 

JoeO

Super Anarchist
1,371
169
Chicago
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO0x7vL2T90

 

Cal20sailor

Super Anarchist
13,161
3,539
Detroit
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
It's easy to judge when it's not your boat/responsibility/wallet.  Hell, you probably have only done 25 of these on your boats.  But, if you exchanged South for every North in the forecasts....

 

stayoutofthemiddle

Super Anarchist
1,423
79
Chicago
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
Boat type?

 

BGeff

Super Anarchist
3,495
256
Ann Arbor, MI
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
Not a bad call.  The multihull "Ollie" from Bay City bailed on it several days ago, and instead of delivering down to Chicago, it is now on its way back home to Bay City.  It's not an easy decision, but if you are the one paying the bills...

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
Given the chance of thunderstorms, straight line winds etc I would not sail on an un-reefable main either. Never a bad call...Why no reef points?

 

JoeO

Super Anarchist
1,371
169
Chicago
Given the chance of thunderstorms, straight line winds etc I would not sail on an un-reefable main either. Never a bad call...Why no reef points?
A fair number of boats in the fleet don't have "reefable" mains - e.g. Farr 40s. When one does only 1 distance race a year, one typically doesn't have a 2nd "distance" main (usually you use last year's OD/WL main). Having a reefable main for OD course events would be a handicap. The reality is that *most" of the time in a Mac race you might be reefed for at most a few hours... sustained 25+ upwind is quite rare... so if you have an un-reefable main, you simply drop it when the shit hits the fan. Usually after the front/storm cells pass over it's back toi S/SW and moderate.This year, last year, and 1970 were certainly somewhat exceptions to that rule. Butt his is not a Bermuda race.

Last time I reefed a main in a  Mac race was 1995 - and we ended up destroying it as it flogged against the runners during that prcoess - we'd have been better off just outright dropping it for the hour or so we needed to.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
A fair number of boats in the fleet don't have "reefable" mains - e.g. Farr 40s. When one does only 1 distance race a year, one typically doesn't have a 2nd "distance" main (usually you use last year's OD/WL main). Having a reefable main for OD course events would be a handicap. The reality is that *most" of the time in a Mac race you might be reefed for at most a few hours... sustained 25+ upwind is quite rare... so if you have an un-reefable main, you simply drop it when the shit hits the fan. Usually after the front/storm cells pass over it's back toi S/SW and moderate.This year, last year, and 1970 were certainly somewhat exceptions to that rule. Butt his is not a Bermuda race.

Last time I reefed a main in a  Mac race was 1995 - and we ended up destroying it as it flogged against the runners during that prcoess - we'd have been better off just outright dropping it for the hour or so we needed to.
Makes 100% sense.  Thank you.

 

doghouse

Super Anarchist
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
Why can't you reef? I can sort you out in no time.

 

sunseeker

Super Anarchist
3,688
620
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
You are a wise man. Smart decision. You know your limits. 

 

Christian

Super Anarchist
There is no question about it.   Sure, things could change.     Personally, we have a new boat that we haven't sailed In more than 12 knots of breeze.  A main we cannot reef, and based on boat type and weather forecast, few hopes of 'success' , much promise of equipment probs and a gaurantee of 40 hours of misery---- we reluctantly are bailing on this one.

Some of you will say "too early"--- you may be right.   But, my delivery tonight wasn't looking like much fun either and the whole thing adds up to "I'm gonna hit the safe button" here.   It sucks.
If you have a boat with a main you cannot reef you have absolutely no business doing anything than buoy races less than a few miles from your berth

 

Latest posts




Top