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China’s low covid death count is being criticized as implausible
China’s improbably low coronavirus death toll has become an object of ridicule and anger for many within the country, who say it does not capture the true scale of grief and loss caused by surging infections.
Health authorities reported only five covid-related deaths on Tuesday and two the day before, all of which were in Beijing. Both numbers were met with a wave of disbelief on microblog Weibo. “How come people only die in Beijing? What about the rest of the country?” one user wrote.
Multiple models of the current outbreak, which began before an unexpected easing of coronavirus restrictions in early December, predict a wave of infections could kill more than 1 million, bringing China in line with total deaths from covid-19 in the United States. Of particular concern is the low vaccination rate among older populations, with just 42 percent of people 80 and over having received a booster shot.
In recent days, funeral homes in Beijing have been unusually busy, with some staff reporting that covid-related deaths are the cause, according to reports from the Financial Times and Associated Press. A receptionist at a funeral parlor in Beijing’s Shunyi district, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of sensitivity around talking to foreign media about covid deaths, told The Washington Post all eight cremators are operating around-the-clock, cadaver freezer boxes are full, and there is a five-to-six-day waiting list.
After authorities last week stopped reporting asymptomatic cases, word of mouth has become the main way many track the outbreak. Social media timelines are a constant stream of positive test results, reversing nearly three years of most people in China having no personal experience with the virus. Hospitals have filled steadily, even as authorities announced measures to increase emergency-care capacity.
The State Council, China’s cabinet, in early December issued updated guidance on the classification and reporting of covid-related deaths. The details of the rules were not made public, but the respected Chinese publication Caixin on Saturday reported that the new procedure requires a ruling made at a hospital and within 24 hours. Deaths considered not directly caused by covid don’t count.
It also raised the threshold for considering an individual to have covid. A patient must be found to have severe hypoxemia or a below 93 percent arterial oxygen saturation level, both of which would suggest the individual was severely starved of oxygen.
The update reflected a “great change” in the nature of deaths from recent variants, said Wang Guiqiang, a government adviser and director of the infectious-disease department at Peking University First Hospital. Wang said the recent variants rarely result in respiratory failure. “The primary causes of death after infection with the omicron strain are underlying diseases or old age,” he said during an official news conference on Tuesday.
The procedure is in line with China’s earlier criteria for tallying deaths, which has generally been conservative since the start of the pandemic, said Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong.
Jin noted that some individuals who died of underlying conditions worsened by covid were counted during an outbreak in Shanghai earlier this year, in what could have been a change “to emphasize that many people would die from covid” and show why lockdowns were necessary.
“Now they just returned to their old method,” Jin said, adding that the lack of information from the government makes it impossible to know the full death toll.
The deaths of individuals who were infected by the coronavirus when they died have added to concerns that the daily number is too low to be credible. A former footballer, who local media said had covid and an underlying condition, died on a day when the official toll was zero. A medical student who collapsed while at work was also cited by commentators as another case missing from the official figures.
China’s improbably low coronavirus death toll has become an object of ridicule and anger for many within the country, who say it does not capture the true scale of grief and loss caused by surging infections.
Health authorities reported only five covid-related deaths on Tuesday and two the day before, all of which were in Beijing. Both numbers were met with a wave of disbelief on microblog Weibo. “How come people only die in Beijing? What about the rest of the country?” one user wrote.
Multiple models of the current outbreak, which began before an unexpected easing of coronavirus restrictions in early December, predict a wave of infections could kill more than 1 million, bringing China in line with total deaths from covid-19 in the United States. Of particular concern is the low vaccination rate among older populations, with just 42 percent of people 80 and over having received a booster shot.
In recent days, funeral homes in Beijing have been unusually busy, with some staff reporting that covid-related deaths are the cause, according to reports from the Financial Times and Associated Press. A receptionist at a funeral parlor in Beijing’s Shunyi district, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of sensitivity around talking to foreign media about covid deaths, told The Washington Post all eight cremators are operating around-the-clock, cadaver freezer boxes are full, and there is a five-to-six-day waiting list.
After authorities last week stopped reporting asymptomatic cases, word of mouth has become the main way many track the outbreak. Social media timelines are a constant stream of positive test results, reversing nearly three years of most people in China having no personal experience with the virus. Hospitals have filled steadily, even as authorities announced measures to increase emergency-care capacity.
The State Council, China’s cabinet, in early December issued updated guidance on the classification and reporting of covid-related deaths. The details of the rules were not made public, but the respected Chinese publication Caixin on Saturday reported that the new procedure requires a ruling made at a hospital and within 24 hours. Deaths considered not directly caused by covid don’t count.
It also raised the threshold for considering an individual to have covid. A patient must be found to have severe hypoxemia or a below 93 percent arterial oxygen saturation level, both of which would suggest the individual was severely starved of oxygen.
The update reflected a “great change” in the nature of deaths from recent variants, said Wang Guiqiang, a government adviser and director of the infectious-disease department at Peking University First Hospital. Wang said the recent variants rarely result in respiratory failure. “The primary causes of death after infection with the omicron strain are underlying diseases or old age,” he said during an official news conference on Tuesday.
The procedure is in line with China’s earlier criteria for tallying deaths, which has generally been conservative since the start of the pandemic, said Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong.
Jin noted that some individuals who died of underlying conditions worsened by covid were counted during an outbreak in Shanghai earlier this year, in what could have been a change “to emphasize that many people would die from covid” and show why lockdowns were necessary.
“Now they just returned to their old method,” Jin said, adding that the lack of information from the government makes it impossible to know the full death toll.
The deaths of individuals who were infected by the coronavirus when they died have added to concerns that the daily number is too low to be credible. A former footballer, who local media said had covid and an underlying condition, died on a day when the official toll was zero. A medical student who collapsed while at work was also cited by commentators as another case missing from the official figures.
