weightless
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Covid-19
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I’d be more inclined to listen to the model presented in good faith by actual public health officials and consider statistical models presented re such a model if every GOP member in the Senate and WH agrees to be personally exposed by a method of my choosing and their clinical care randomly assigned. We’re all in this together right? A statistically acceptable sacrifice the elite is basically a suicide mission for others in a democracy. So let’s be real - I’ll stick a nasal swab from a patient in the ICU up my nose and try to obtain immunity. But they do it too - not protected from the unwashed masses while the suicide mission is started to "Save the economy"
McConnell managed to lose his father in law's fortune twice in 15 years.
fastyacht
Super Anarchist
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Two things.
1. The plan in the US is bungled. No contact tracing, no isolation of cases so as to prevent intra-houshold spread, no testing of any use. Incredibly bungled epidemiology. Staggering in fact.
2. The flu pandemic of 1919 happend. It is now 2020. Unlike a depression caused by financial shit, pandemics come to an end. There is light at the end of the tunnel. Well for some anyway.
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12 metre
Super Anarchist
A bit of brighter news;
Here in BC (only 5 million population so a relatively small sample size) perhaps a bit of a downward trend in the number of new cases in the past five days. There is a chart showing the daily number of new cases and total cases about 1/4 of the way down the page.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-update-bonnie-henry-adrian-dix-march-23-1.5506647
Which is a bit surprising since we only got serious about social distancing last Tuesday (Mar 17) which also coincided with our biggest spike in new cases. So I would expect the effects of social distancing to just be starting to take effect - but again without rigorous testing it's probably hard to make too much of that.
Especially since Ontario has 3x BC's population and Ontario just surpassed BC in total number of cases.
We had been doing the worst by far of all Canadian provinces, so maybe just the law of averages has made Ontario surpass BC for total number of cases, IDK.
Personally, I am glad our provincial premier has not followed the lead of Ontario and has instead chosen to not shut down nonessential services - for the time being. That could easily change I imagine if the situation here worsens over the next few days.
To summarize BC data as of March 23: 48 new cases, 472 total cases, 100 recovered, and 13 deaths (11 in long term care homes)
i wouldn't try to suss too much out of those numbers though since of the 472 cases, about 350 were added in the past week and I don't the number of deaths that can be attributed to the first 120 and the last 350.
Here in BC (only 5 million population so a relatively small sample size) perhaps a bit of a downward trend in the number of new cases in the past five days. There is a chart showing the daily number of new cases and total cases about 1/4 of the way down the page.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-update-bonnie-henry-adrian-dix-march-23-1.5506647
Which is a bit surprising since we only got serious about social distancing last Tuesday (Mar 17) which also coincided with our biggest spike in new cases. So I would expect the effects of social distancing to just be starting to take effect - but again without rigorous testing it's probably hard to make too much of that.
Especially since Ontario has 3x BC's population and Ontario just surpassed BC in total number of cases.
We had been doing the worst by far of all Canadian provinces, so maybe just the law of averages has made Ontario surpass BC for total number of cases, IDK.
Personally, I am glad our provincial premier has not followed the lead of Ontario and has instead chosen to not shut down nonessential services - for the time being. That could easily change I imagine if the situation here worsens over the next few days.
To summarize BC data as of March 23: 48 new cases, 472 total cases, 100 recovered, and 13 deaths (11 in long term care homes)
i wouldn't try to suss too much out of those numbers though since of the 472 cases, about 350 were added in the past week and I don't the number of deaths that can be attributed to the first 120 and the last 350.
TJSoCal
Super Anarchist
I'm a little surprised they didn't send her to the Bay area or even to Seattle, seems like the need there is greater. But I'm sure people with more information than I have made the decision.
Black Sox
Super Anarchist
IStream
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TJSoCal
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Controversial_posts
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jack_sparrow
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Go back and read. At this point in time I'm thinking fuck me this Israel guy is hanging his entire fuckin opinion on just one article and trying to force feed it down my throat. This is despite work done that Government administrations like the US are receiving (acting upon it is another box of monkeys) like this. The report behind this Deaths No Action Taken estimate I deal with below.
View attachment 352504
So Israel I'm going to quote an excerpt from your recommended reading here about citing real data and the concept of having a "suppression" strategy that you clearly object to. I also note your citing has been selective where it fails to mention the authors closing words;
"If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe."
An extract where he talks about the case fatality ratio.
".....Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.
Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes......
.....School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease.
This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open, at least until as I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic.
...If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.
Now to some others chiming in Israel after reading what wanted read and it appears are of the view you are at best unhinged.
The article by the way is dated 17 March so only a week old.
Anyway what is your Asian and Euro real data is not real we need real data??? Is that some American superiority thing. WTF.
Anyway Billy chimes in.
I will add the UK Mortality Case Rate as of yesterday is 5% but more on that later.
Clean gets it, and I have lived in Spain.
My only addition would be demographics, economics and social issues play a huge part in mortality rate. For instance Italy the oldest population in Europe but is the world's fittest. The US and UK lower age ratio but unfit as fuck. Italy has a high ratio of owner occupied homes and low ratio of debt, the opposite to the US and the UK. But it also has a higher proportion of multi generational families under one roof. Hence social sciences are just as vital as epidemiology for plotting outcomes.
The US does have the world's highest ratio of acute care of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds though. Question is will there be enough? More in that later.
Now some real data to guage if "suppression" works using as the author said above of the UK. "In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic."
"Absence of data"?? balls..most is known now and at worst weeks ago.
The UK strategy from 3 weeks ago and up to one week ago.
The UK abandoned this "mitigation/herd imunisation" strategy (some say economic) early last week in favour of "suppression." I don't quite frankly see much difference between it and the US prior to last week. The WHO on 11 March was scathing of the strategy both were employing, without naming them.
So the UK overnight adopted a "shut-down" strategy, your worst nightmare Israel it seems.
The UK last night
So let's look at some real Coronavirus Data
Many other countries "locked" down BEFORE the UK and many having experienced LESSER impact than the UK.
On 23/24 March Country "X" "locks-down" 24 hours BEFORE the UK.
YET AT THE TIME OF THE UK's "LOCK-DOWN"
1. "Country "X" had a "suppression strategy" in place for nearly 3 times (3 weeks) longer the UK's (one week)
2. Country "X" 5,600 tests per million population is nearly five times the UK's 1,200 tests per million population.
3. Country "X" 67 cases per million population approaching four-fifths the UK's 85 cases per million population, BUT "X" having five times testing/case capture and trace rate.
4. Country "X" 7 deaths 0.3 per million or 1/14th of the UK's 280 deaths or 4.2 per million population, but with "X" 1st death one week earlier.
5. Country "X" case fatality rate (deaths/confirmed cases) of 0.4% is 1/13th the UK's 5% but with "X" 1st death one week earlier and "X" having five times testing/case capture rate.
And for further comparison not just to Country "X"
6. The UK's case fatality rate of 5% is over half Italy's 9.3% with Italy's 1st death occurring 14 days before the UK.
7. At the same time of the UK's first death and 14 days after Italy's first death, the UK's testing rate of 350 persons per million was nearly one-third Italys 1,000 tests per million population
8. At the same point in time as Italy (14 days after their respective first deaths) and both having the same number of deaths (144 versus 148), the UK's test rate of around 800 tests per million was less than Italy's 1, 000 tests per million population.
And no Country "X" is not Korea and it shares with the UK the same Queen as head of state.
I see Korea is raised as an example by many on account of their high testing rate like Country "X" which has slipped under the world's radar. So for comparison you can see as of a week ago Korea on 18 March it has a case fatality rate of 1% compared to Country "X" at less than 0.4% or half the rate. Its closer proximity and ties to China would account for that.
The UK at the same time a case fatality rate of 4% and in less than a week has increased by one quarter to 5%. (5,700 cases 280 deaths)
Interestingly in Korea it has increased by a similiar factor from 1% to 1.3% (now 9,037 cases and 120 deaths) in the same period but with around 5 times the testing. Korea's case rate is up 8% deaths up 50% whereas the UK vases up by 75% and deaths 150% but with a fifth the testing. This indicates the UK now has run away case and death rate in the Italy league sitting currently on 9.3%.
View attachment 352530
The above data debunks everything contained in that article where the author posed at the end. "If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe."
As for the US jumping and landing safe, my guess like the UK it is too late. Why?? Compare this US data to the above for Country "X" the UK and Italy.
First Cases: The virus first escaped China in latter half of January whereby on 1 February there were around a 100 cases reported. You can see the US had 7 cases versus Italy 2 and UK 2. Country "X" had 10.
View attachment 353103
First Death: Country "X" and US 3 weeks ago and the UK 2 weeks ago. Italy over 4 weeks ago or 22 February.
Test and Trace around First Death per Million Population. Country "X" 1,000 tests pm. UK 350 pm. US <5 pm. Italy 500 pm.
Test & Trace Today: Country "X" 143,000 tests or 5,600 pm. UK 80,000 tests or 1,200 pm. US 190,00 tests or 580 tests pm. Italy 275,000 or 4,500 tests pm
Cases & Cases per Million Population: Country "X" 1,700 or 67 cases pm. UK 5,700 cases or 85 cases pm. US 35,000 cases or 106 cases pm. Italy 59,000 cases or 967 pm BUT 4 weeks after first death..
Deaths & Deaths Per Million Population: Country "X" 7 deaths or 0.3 deaths pm. UK 280 deaths or 4.2 deaths pm. US 470 deaths or 1.4 deaths pm. Italy 5,480 or 90 deaths per million population BUT 4 weeks after first death.
Case Fatality Rate (deaths/cases) Country "X" 0.4%. UK 5%. US 1.3%. Italy 9.3%
Country "X" Has
1. Around three-quartets of the the UK/US's cases per million people.
2. But only 1/14th of the UK's deaths per million people and 1/5th of the US's deaths per million people.
3. Only 1/13th the UK's case fatality rate and 1/3rd the US's case fatality rate.
Why Does Country "X" have such a low case fatality rate when it has a similar rate of cases to the UK/US?
1. Tested and traced earllier and at a higher rate. Testing rate today is now around 5 times the UK and 10 times the US. It is one- quarter higher than Italy's.
2. Instigated a voluntary "suppression" strategy over three weeks ago that was embraced by the public and required no laws coming into play. This also required no business closures so economic impact limited. The UK and US however did not instigate a "suppression" strategy until early last week. Replacing what the scientists call a "mitigation" strategy.
3. Despite the very low case fatality rate of 0.4% and mortality rate of 0.3% (interestingly a low rate referred that is refered to in the above article for a lock-down strategy as being; "totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat") preparations were made to lock-down. That occured yesterday and includes closure of state borders.
4. It has a similar rate of cases to the UK/US because it has today between five and ten times the testing/case capture rate. The question then is that the higher case fatality rates in the UK and US are overstated. However that means the number of cases in the UK and US are grossly understated. Remember cases with no or low symptoms which are the majority of cases requiring little attention still transmit.
Note: US Response To-date
Current National guidance and since starting last week instructs Americans across the country to avoid gatherings of more than 10 people ; work or attend school from home whenever possible; and abstain from eating or drinking at bars, restaurants and food courts. That is all. No National Shut-Down.
However in only around a dozen states with higher concentrations of cases, Governors have issued mandatory directives including ordered all non-essential to close. Unfortunately virus does respect state borders unless they close. They haven't.
IMHO I think the US is going to get super fucked and shall point out below why.
Response Strategy Conclusion
So from the above testing and tracing is king as the data shows. Fastyacht nails it.
However the problem is far greater than that and where the above author banged on about death rates per population. The facts are VOVID-19 is very infectious (after 10 passes after one person it will infect 59,000 V a normal cold/flu 14 people) but doesn't have a high death rate, provided you are treated. Suppression isn't rocket science.
It is the capacity of the health system to cope or not that is killer, not the treatable virus with good recovery prospects.
Everyone bangs on about flattening the curve to bring it under a health systems capacity. However barely a word is spoken anywhere about what that health care capacity is. It is as if it is a banned phrase.
I said above the US does have the world's highest ratio of ICU beds. In fact around 34 per 100,000 population or 112,000 of the suckers. However due to a number of factors "like a liking" for supersized meals, high elective surgery rates and a return orientated private health care system drives a high capacity and occupancy rate for ICU beds.
View attachment 353283 View attachment 353284
Now if all elective surgery is cancelled etc and capacity freed up the Chief Medical Officer in the UK told a Parliamentary Committee last week one-third of their ICU beds could be used for Coronavirus noting their occupancy is around 95% due to capacity shortage. So using that as a guide for the US, 34 beds per 100,000 becomes 13.6 (34 X O.4) available ICU beds or 45,000 ICU beds/equipment/infrastructure and ICU trained staff in total. A bed BTW just isn't a bed.
The problem is that even if a "suppression" strategy involving "lock-downs" was hypothetically introduced to the US a week ago, the peak ICU demand exceeds ICU capacity.
It is projected using the latest data from Italy that 30% (was 15%) of hospital admissions require ICU treatment or more precisely around 100 beds per 100,000 population. The US is therefore short 286,000 ICU beds at the peak (less any it can conjure up via temporary construction, equipment procurement and additional ICU trained staff etc). The age group breakup to the 30% hospital admissions requiring critical or ICU care is as follows.
View attachment 352141
This material comes from The Imperial College Study being used to guide both the US and UK Administrations. You can find it here on the UK Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) Web Site.
Scientific evidence supporting the government response to COVID-19
Scroll right down to bottom of the page to Models section and click on this heading; Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and HEALTHCARE. Yes it is hidden at the bottom for a reason.
The existence of this body of work on Healthcare Demand should not come as a surprise in the US as it has been reported on the Times. 18 March New York Times - Behind the Virus Report That Jarred the U.S. and the U.K. to Action
For reading on how the UK fucked up their virus response can be found in this UK' Sunday Times article published last Sunday. Johnson Government changed their priorities on 16 March from save economy to save lives
For the UK the Imperial College study shows the first peak is three months away in mid June. And yes that red line just off the bottom bis the UK's ICU "total capacity" (not available) of 7 ICU beds per 100,000 or 4,700 beds. The US is 34 with 13.4 available. The occupancy of 60% brings that down to 2.8 beds or around 2,000 available. So they are short around 65,000 ICU beds at the peak or five times worse off than the US on a per capita basis.
One last obvious thing is general hospital beds. The US has approximately 729,000 general beds (2.54 per 1,000 incl ICU). At the peak it will require approx 772,000 or a shortfall of 43,000 assuming 100% occupancy. This is overwhelming but not as severe as the ICU shortfall of 286,000 which governs death rate. While the US has the world's largest number of ICU beds it ranks poorly in overall bed numbers globally.
View attachment 353288
It is abundantly clear the UK and US in selecting a response chose mitigating the impact on the economy (and size of their bailout purse) over saving lives. The UK has finally seen the light, albeit much too late. The question remaining is when will the White House do likewise. Leaving it to individual States will end in a catastrofuck, if it isn't already so.
It is extraordinary that when it is ICU bed capacity which determines a country's death rate that the author of that article when promoting a "do nothing response" does not mention anywhere in his widely publicised piece the words "bed" and or ICU??? But then again not extraordinary if the intention was to mislead, not inform. Match the White House's existing do nothing national approach?
He talks of "case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%. ....can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes" to spin this "do nothing" response. Putting Country "X" aside Korea the country with highest track and trace ratio in the world is at a lowley 1.3%. Italy the highest case fatality rate at 9.3% with the UK hard on its arse at 5% increasing 1% in less than a week. Italy and shortly the UK are according him a 128 million capacity nursing home!!! WTF.
No mention made of those countries employing response strategies that have data to prove that, which he says doesn't exist.
That article encouraging people to resist a proven viris response strategy effectively makes him an accessory to fucking murder.
Italy’s experience shows limiting the movement of the broader population need to be taken early, put in place with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.
The UK and US have ignored the "response strategy" adopted by Country "X" and Korea revolving around "suppression" and test/trace and treat
The US and UK have repeated (US still repeating) Italy's mistakes of fumbling early in the contagion when it most mattered. Instead they both initially sought to try and preserve basic civil liberties as well as the economy, a fatal mistake that is shortly to unfold. The paradox being what they initially sought to preserve is about to get slaughtered, largely by their own hands.
I apologise for the "word salad" but those posts of yours Israel circulating that rubbish article to fit a "do nothing" narrative is damaging for every person who reads and accepts it just because of letters after the author's name. In the context of one person after 10 passes can infect 68,000, hopefuly this post can correct the damage that plonker unleashed.
PS. You Israel can't be blamed for being one of the two characters in the left hand column below, take your pick. I'm guessing "Boomer Sceptic" with a Make America Great T-Shirt collection.
However if I'm wrong Israel and you are a "FaceFuck Free-Thinker" thinking the virus is caused by the Huawei 5G rollout, share this with your friends just in case you missed POTUS's latest Chinese conspiracy tweet instead of looking to save you.
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Israel Hands
Super Anarchist
One only has to look at your post to see who is unhinged. It starts with who engages in polite discourse and who devolves to name-calling.
jack_sparrow
Super Anarchist
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Glad to see immediately after it was posted you went straight to the end not bothering to read it.
Israel Hands
Super Anarchist
No, I got the gist of your tone in your opening few lines. If you want to have civil discourse about potential solutions, concepts, etc. that's great. If you just want to flame someone you have no idea about, we will just leave your little diatribe be.
jack_sparrow
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Don't worry Israel you repeatedly saying everyone read your cite every time you were challenged and nothing else, made your concept of "discourse" crystal clear before I posted. Your narrative wasn't to be messed with and that's that. Do that and you're being "flamed"??
You clearly have zero "authoritative" material to back your opinion of virus counter measures involving lock downs over a remaining 40 odd US States as being "utter bullshit," other than that one cite.
As to "tone," your words of being "pissed off" and those counter measure are "utter bullshit," set the "tone" not me. Data that your precious cited authors headline stated "didn't exist" and you supported, despite it working successfully globally with supporting data.
If going to the trouble of furnishing that data that attacked the author and showing him up as being professionally incompetent, not you, but "we" (whose the "we", are you both related?) regard those facts as "diatribe," so be it.
So yes Israel if you have nothing to offer, but insist your pissant narrative go unchallenged, then yes it is best you toddle off.
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green03
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