Florence

Thistle3868

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331
58
Watching it as well.  Looks like GFS has it staying out and Euro has it coming to the coast and the NHC forecast is splitting the middle.

 

IrieMon

Super Anarchist
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62
ensembles-sep5-flo.png


 

kent_island_sailor

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27,270
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Kent Island!
Latest still has it holding a westerly course. This is really looking like it may be a factor for us here.

Insurance will call offering a free haul or something about 2 days after every yard is booked solid so it will be off to a mooring I go...........................

 

Ajax

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Edgewater, MD
Grrrr... This thing really needs to go somewhere else.

Hauling isn't always the savior either. We had boats blown off of stands during the past winter.  I can see that I need to go purchase more and longer docklines.

 

IrieMon

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Must be some darkness in The Force keeping it from turning north
Hopefully I'm not butchering this... and I'm sure DryArmor can explain it better, but there's a ridge over the central US which is preventing fronts from moving off the East Coast.   These fronts are typically what "drag" the hurricanes off to the N/NE.

 
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weightless

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Hopefully I'm not butchering this... and I'm sure DryArmor can explain it better, but there's a ridge over the central US which is preventing fronts from moving off the East Coast.   These fronts are typically what "drag" the hurricanes off to the N/NE.
I'm probably butchering it too, but, FWIW, here's a chart of the 500mb (hPa) winds (knots) and height (decameters). The winds ~500mb are a reasonable approximation of the steering force on the storm. In this pic you see two 500mb highs (588) with ridging developing between them. To the N of the ridge the steering forces are NW and below the ridge the steering will push the system W. Small changes in the relationship between the ridge and the storm could make a big difference in where it goes while there's still a path to the N. That path is forecast to close off as the ridge strengthens.

gfs_z500_vort_atl_8.png


Here's the development looking at 500mb height and MSLP:

gfs_z500_mslp_atl_fh42-108.gif

 
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sidmon

Super Anarchist
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Chicago
Weirdness

99 other times, a hurricane this far east will not even make it to Bermuda. Must be some darkness in The Force keeping it from turning north, like usual

FB- Doug
Its alll about "The Ridge"

This is from Ryan Maue's twitter feed. He has revolutionized weather model graphics. Following his twitter alone is worth it when these beasts lurk:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

image.png

As is Joe Bastardi's daily update on weatherbell. His knowledge of tropical cyclones is encyclopedic, and he picks up on nascent patterns before anyone else far more often than not. Click on the "premium" tab here. The daily update is outside the paywall:

https://www.weatherbell.com

 




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