littlechay
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #261
Oh well that's another one out. Too bad; but obviously the correct decision for him.
GGR 2022
- Thread starter littlechay
- Start date
No reason given, so far, but it's a long way to go if you're not enjoying it.
The low system that the middle of the fleet are experiencing doesn't seem to have done much damage. Looking at the courses of the boats in that area, they haven't changed much and some are on courses that would be unlikely if the wind was as shown.
Kirsten is pushing hard, probably a lot of hand steering, she's consistently gaining on those around her.
At approx 2330 UTC, 23rd
The next mark at Trindade is;
2287 miles for Simon,
2357 for Tapio
2380 for Pat
2390 for Kirsten
2887 for Damien, who is still a contender.
I think the winner will come out of that list, which isn't much of a prophecy.
With the limited information that they have, there's not much chance that the leaders will all fall into a hole and a tail-ender will sail around them
The low system that the middle of the fleet are experiencing doesn't seem to have done much damage. Looking at the courses of the boats in that area, they haven't changed much and some are on courses that would be unlikely if the wind was as shown.
Kirsten is pushing hard, probably a lot of hand steering, she's consistently gaining on those around her.
At approx 2330 UTC, 23rd
The next mark at Trindade is;
2287 miles for Simon,
2357 for Tapio
2380 for Pat
2390 for Kirsten
2887 for Damien, who is still a contender.
I think the winner will come out of that list, which isn't much of a prophecy.
With the limited information that they have, there's not much chance that the leaders will all fall into a hole and a tail-ender will sail around them
Schakel
Dayboat sailor
Except that Kirsten and Abhilash Tomy are heading the other way. I have figured out why they are doing that.
Perhaps trapped by a windhole.
littlechay
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #267
Good insight into Simon Curwen's choices.
Yachting Monthly interview with Simon
Yachting Monthly interview with Simon
littlechay
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #268
I'm not sure what Wx model that the tracker overlays, probably the predictwind massaged GFS model (PWG) I find the ECMF model better along with ICON. I'm downloading my own GRIBS and using QtVLM for tracking.
Also remember that the tracker updates are infrequent (currently 6 hourly I think) so it doesn't necessarily reflect their actual course, only their position relative to the last position; which may or may not include course changes and tacks of gybes. Although in this case it was their course, I think.
Thanks Chay.
I don't have much faith in any of the weather guessing systems that I've looked at, which is not many.
I'm no longer doing deliveries or long cruises but my impression is that the predictions are no more accurate than they were back when. They are more precise but just as wrong.
I shudder when I hear cruisers explain their plans which involve skirting a low and pinpointing where they plan to be at what hour.
I'm not a believer but I like the wind overlay, it gives some idea of what's going on.
I'm a neanderthal so I love this race.
I don't have much faith in any of the weather guessing systems that I've looked at, which is not many.
I'm no longer doing deliveries or long cruises but my impression is that the predictions are no more accurate than they were back when. They are more precise but just as wrong.
I shudder when I hear cruisers explain their plans which involve skirting a low and pinpointing where they plan to be at what hour.
I'm not a believer but I like the wind overlay, it gives some idea of what's going on.
I'm a neanderthal so I love this race.
littlechay
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #270
Yes! they are often precisely wrong
I semi-trust them for 12 hours or so and then out for three days the systems they predict might happen but the timing and absolute track is usually off. There are people out there seem to believe that they are good 2-weeks out! beggars' belief! I have known some cruisers to go through every available model and forecast until they find one that says what they want, even if it is the only one! And then wonder why they get hammered.
The neanderthal aspect of it, and the soap opera race management, are what attract me too.
Trocola
Member
- 90
- 87
Guy´s boat has been salvaged:
noticiasfuerteventura.com
Consiguen salvar el barco de Guy de Boer que embarrancaba en el norte de Fuerteventura
noticiasfuerteventura.com
wildbirdtoo
Member
They had to put sand down to protect the foreshore
Nh stumpjumper
New member
- 15
- 4
Can't imagine they would load it canted to the side. They must have set it upright once it was loaded?
Smiley Junction
Member
What’s up with Elliot? Am I missing something? Not seeing him in the competitiors positions. Checked the GGR and his own website, etc., for news.
Smiley Junction
Member
Thanks for the update. That’s likely a wise strategy. This will be a race of attrition. Save the fast horses for when all the others are half dead.
He strikes me as being clever as a fox, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was also taking the time to increase his competence and confidence slowly, and to watch the behaviours and strategies of the rest of the pack from behind. Then there will be plenty of time to make moves and chase people down.
He strikes me as being clever as a fox, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he was also taking the time to increase his competence and confidence slowly, and to watch the behaviours and strategies of the rest of the pack from behind. Then there will be plenty of time to make moves and chase people down.
littlechay
Super Anarchist
- Thread starter
- #278
Falling into a wind hole is not strategy! It's, at best luck, at worst incompetent navigation.
The competitors have very little information in this race. He is unlikely to know his true position in the fleet and certainly can't "watch the behaviours and strategies" of the others.
Jambalaya
Super Anarchist
Haven't read all the way back in this thread but just a shout out to Simin Curwen my old friend and rival in UK J105 fleet. No surprise to see him leading this edition
Smiley Junction
Member
Didn’t know he had “fallen” into a wind hole. As for the other naughts, I thought they had radio contact with their teams…?
In any case thank you for the opportunity to stand corrected ✌️
