Greater Recession Coming??

SloopJonB

Super Anarchist
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13,260
Great Wet North
Sluggo proved himself a loyal cheerleader for Team Fascist long ago. He'll repeat any lie that might help The Cause. He's got a man-crush on Putin, too.
Sluggo has always seemed a contradiction to me - anybody with such incredibly bad/stupid sociopolitical views should not even be attracted to sailing, let alone be knowledgeable of it.

An obnoxious powerboat streaming stupid flags would seem to be his natural home.
 

Swimsailor

Super Anarchist
4,667
1,957
WA
Hard to have a recession when people keep buying shit...

 

Goodvibes

under the southern cross I stand ...
1,032
305
I only take notice of anyone who predicted the 2008 meltdown. Wall street didn't tell us.
 

SloopJonB

Super Anarchist
70,089
13,260
Great Wet North
I only take notice of anyone who predicted the 2008 meltdown. Wall street didn't tell us.
I did. Not the date but the inevitability of it in the near future.

In '06 - '07 I was talking to some investment people in my wife's American side family. They were defending all the bullshit paper "derivatives" like mortgage default swaps etc. that propped up the sub prime Ponzi.

I told them a reckoning was coming but Nooooo - that garbage was all legitimate financial product.
 

BeSafe

Super Anarchist
8,115
1,353
After some Black Friday and followup Saturday shopping with my daughter, I think it's going to be a rough holiday for retail. We'll see.
 

billy backstay

Backstay, never bought a suit, never went to Vegas
I did. Not the date but the inevitability of it in the near future.

In '06 - '07 I was talking to some investment people in my wife's American side family. They were defending all the bullshit paper "derivatives" like mortgage default swaps etc. that propped up the sub prime Ponzi.

I told them a reckoning was coming but Nooooo - that garbage was all legitimate financial product.

And they socialized the losses after previously pocketing all gains, to prevent the meltdown of the banking system. What a country! The Golden Rule; those with the most gold will make all the rules. Same as it ever was and ever shall be.....
 

Mrleft8

Super Anarchist
27,389
4,042
Suwanee River
Those predicting doom are those people who will benefit most from a recession.
Hedge fund managers are creaming their jeans in anticipation.
These are people who have never contributed one single tangible bit of worth to society. The only thing they do is make money into more money off the backs of the actual working people of the world. This is ignored.
If welders, masons, fruit pickers, weavers, carpenters, dairy farmers, butchers, mechanics, craftspeople of all stripes took a month off, all at once. The world would implode. Hedge fund managers would be crying for the nanny to please come pick up the kids, because his wife is out foraging for berries in Hoboken..... But the phones won't work.
 

BeSafe

Super Anarchist
8,115
1,353
The thing about the doomsayers is that they’re usually correct. At any given moment, I could site a dozen statistics that show ‘this is all bullshit, and can’t possibly work’. Math and all that.

The thing about money is that it’s a modern religion – it is fundamentally faith based. The system continues to work as long as the majority of participants believe it works. And the participants – from Jeff Bezos on down to Jeff Nobody - are substantially motivated by self-interest to continue to believe.

That’s where money crosses into things like geo-politics and one of the big reasons why the US military is so closely tied to the petro-dollar and the US hegemony. You cannot have a ‘global reserve currency’ without a ‘globally dominant’ military and a 'globially dominant financial system'. The three tools of governance – popularity, force, and money.

Just to put things in perspective, the global ‘bitcoin’ market is between 1-2 trillion dollars equivalent. The global ‘gold’ market, is about 10 trillion dollars total (5x bigger). The global ‘equities’ market – stocks – is around 51 trillion dollars (5x bigger again). The ‘shadow banking system’ is estimated at roughly the size of the equities market - $50 billion. The ‘official’ global debt market is about $290 trillion dollars – 6x more than the equities market. Hence, when I die, I want to come back as something powerful.. like the bond market.

There’s about 300 trillion reasons to NOT believe the doomsayers - regardless of if they’re speaking the absolute scientific truth with perfect mathematical certainty. Money is either force or faith. And we’ve collectively decided that the ‘force’ version is right out so we’re left with the Church of the Mighty Dollar and the high priest is Jerome Powell. But just like Boehner said, "A leader without followers is a man on a walk" - so Powell has to try and serve his many masters. That's why the fed fund rate tends to follow the 2-year treasury but is in competion with the 10 year. Its the balance of power between the short term and the long term that he's trying to placate.
 

billy backstay

Backstay, never bought a suit, never went to Vegas
According to the so-called experts an inverted yield curve is always followed by a recession. I reckon this has got the hedge funds all salivating.....

 

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