Greater Recession Coming??

billy backstay

billy backstay

Backstay, never bought a suit, never went to Vegas
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Long River meets the Sound....
Raz'r said:
Yep, our house will be too big in 1 1/2 years, but the house isn't the issue around here, it's the cost of the land. They can scrape off the house, and STILL make money building a new one. Old houses can detract from the land value. Crazy, I know.
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I think that's the same anywhere. Cheaper to demo whatever structure is there and start from scratch. That goes for commercial too, but not as much for light industrial. Unless it's a home with some provenence like a well kept Victorian in a similar neighborhood, or similar. Restoring an old house, boat or car can cost way more than finding one that someone else already spent all that time and money on!!
 
B

BeSafe

Super Anarchist
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The US will have a technical default eventually - the best guess at this point is early 2030's. Math and all that.

One of the most important aspects of the CBDC is it creates a pathway for 'direct deposits' into bank accounts and bypasses some of the guard rails that cause so much drama.

Here's how it might go down. The current social security system isn't paid for out of general funds - it's a paygo system. Its actually pretty difficult to retool that system. So, in 2034 or whenever it runs out, all social security recipients are going to get a hair cut of 25% or so.

BUT... President Ocasio-Cortez has this neat new tool in her kit called a "CBDC". She can use it to direct deposit money into bank accounts - like stimmy checks but not administered through the archaic tax code - no, it comes mainline from the general account tied to your social security number and administered at local Post office Branches.

Means testing for Social security is highly controversial - so let's just ignore that. Everyone takes a hair cut. BUT, if you're low income, then we're going to give you a supplemental payment to help make your life a little easier. The money is going to come to you via CBDC and we're going to limit what you can use it for - say qualified medical expenses (like Medicare/Insurance payments) and maybe food? Of course, you'd have to pay for those things anyway but it guarantees that the new stimmy money only gets spent on things that the government thinks you need to spend it on - no money for 'bad' things. Don't want to embarrass anyone. For that, you'll have to use your regular SS payment.

Voila, means tested without means testing!

To pay for this new debt, we'll issue more bonds. And if people don't like it, then we'll just pay off their old bonds with new bonds. You're 10 year is maturing and you want to cash it out?? Too bad - I'll give you another 10 year T-bill to cover it instead - go sell that if you want cash. Or you get to wait until i feel like giving you cash - the law allows for about 7 years for such settlements.

There are more draconian types of defaults but I think this kind of shell game is the most likely. That'll create sort of pernicious cost pressure on required things such as energy, food, land, and commodities.
 
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Lark

Lark

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slug zitski said:
www.chinausfocus.com

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Exports and the Yuan

The financial sanctions that are being placed on Russia have put the focus onto the over reliance of global trade on the U.S. dollar, especially when it comes to precious oil. Now, Saudi Arabia is preparing for the first time ever to start pricing some oil exports in the yuan which could lead to...
www.chinausfocus.com www.chinausfocus.com

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The sanctions the US forced on businesses around the world when we walked out of the Iran Nuclear Deal pushed this process forward. The dollar as the standard instrument of trade gave US industry an advantage we're squandering.
 
slug zitski

slug zitski

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Lark said:
The sanctions the US forced on businesses around the world when we walked out of the Iran Nuclear Deal pushed this process forward. The dollar as the standard instrument of trade gave US industry an advantage we're squandering.
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the dollars decline was turbo charged when the US seized Russian foreign reserves

bad move.
 
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Lark

Lark

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Ohio
slug zitski said:
the dollars decline was been turbo charged when the US seized Russian foreign reserves

bad move.
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No. The free world was right to sanction your bestie and freeze (not seize) assets. We cannot seize them without going to war. Just as with the 1979 Iran money Carter froze, which Obama finally gave back a few years ago, the money and compensation for any yachts sold due to the expense of layup must eventually be returned.

There is no reason we should return to pre–WW I Europe with near continuous warfare as the strongest bullies perpetually attempt to conquer their neighbors. Unfortunately, the world's third largest economy (EU) is limited by its dependence on Putin (though Putin is more dependent on them). The second largest economy (China) is openly attempting to gain economic leverage, as is the fifth largest (India), by creating a post Bretton Woods economic order. China is motivated by its own desire to conquer the ocean by capturing tiny islands as well as conquering Taiwan. I think India just wants to make a few bucks.
 
slug zitski

slug zitski

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www.centralbanking.com

The long and short of it: a brave new world order and dollar reserves - Central Banking

Arnab Das, global macro strategist at Invesco, explores the possibility of an international monetary system going back to the future, with the US less
www.centralbanking.com www.centralbanking.com

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Go Left

Go Left

Super Anarchist
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Lark said:
No. The free world was right to sanction your bestie and freeze (not seize) assets. We cannot seize them without going to war. Just as with the 1979 Iran money Carter froze, which Obama finally gave back a few years ago, the money and compensation for any yachts sold due to the expense of layup must eventually be returned.

There is no reason we should return to pre–WW I Europe with near continuous warfare as the strongest bullies perpetually attempt to conquer their neighbors. Unfortunately, the world's third largest economy (EU) is limited by its dependence on Putin (though Putin is more dependent on them). The second largest economy (China) is openly attempting to gain economic leverage, as is the fifth largest (India), by creating a post Bretton Woods economic order. China is motivated by its own desire to conquer the ocean by capturing tiny islands as well as conquering Taiwan. I think India just wants to make a few bucks.
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And got so much shit from the RWNJ media for doing what was legally required.
 
Go Left

Go Left

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Olsonist said:
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www.marketwatch.com

U.S. grew 2.9% in third quarter, GDP shows, and there's little sign of recession for now

The U.S. is on track to expand again in the waning months of 2022 despite growing worries of a recession.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
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This much yammered-about potential recession seems to be more driven by expectations than underlying economic forces.

Now If Putin would stop waving his dick around and China start treating their people with respect, it might be clear sailing. Of course, neither of those are odds on to happen.

And if the RWNJs actually got their vaccinations, we'd likely be that much more assured of calm waters.
 
billy backstay

billy backstay

Backstay, never bought a suit, never went to Vegas
32,868
2,970
Long River meets the Sound....
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