Hurricane Season 2023

veni vidi vici

veni vidi vici

Veni Vidi Ego Dubito
11,623
3,198
This has been my go to hide from the hype and hysteria site since a few years before KATRINA they were showing the landfall in Gulfport long before landfall.
You’ll have to poke around to find the Atlantic tropical weather page. When they begin tracking there is a lot of good information in the adjacent boxes
 
Steam Flyer

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
50,767
13,486
Eastern NC
Charlie Foxtrot said:
Last year, the 5-Day forecast was only interesting in an academic sense, and damn near useless in reality.

So, the 7-Day Forecast has even less information -- and more panic. Perfect for our modern society.
Click to expand...

What "forecast" are you looking at? I've tracked about half the hurricanes each year since 2006, before they issued a 5-day track prediction.

They are almost always spot-on, and I've never seen one go out of the 90% predicted cone.
 
Charlie Foxtrot

Charlie Foxtrot

Super Anarchist
5,319
1,164
Floriduh
Steam Flyer said:
What "forecast" are you looking at? I've tracked about half the hurricanes each year since 2006, before they issued a 5-day track prediction.

They are almost always spot-on, and I've never seen one go out of the 90% predicted cone.
Click to expand...

Perhaps we've miscommunicated, but I can't think of a single instance that the hurricane track at five days remained appreciably the same over the five days. Usually the error is multiples of tens, more likely hundreds of miles. And the cone (an amalgamation of many disparate forecasts) is usually so absurdly large as to be next to useless.

For example, take 2019's Dorian. A 5-Day Forecast put the hurricane ashore in my front yard, as an insanely strong Cat 5. Instead, it inexplicably stalled for three days over the Bahamas, then churned off to the nor-norwest. It never even hit the US, only lipping NC, before striking Cantucky. The scientist only shrugged their shoulders, had another drink, and asked for more funding.

What I'm saying is that these bastards are still poorly understood. When the 2-3 day forecasts impact land, I start to really pay attention to the forecasts and tracks; before that, I'm only slightly interested, but making plans. The 2022 season wasn't kind to the 5-Day Forecast, and I see no reason to believe the 7-Day forecast will not exponentially increase the futility of the wheaxrher guesser's long range forecasts.
 
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Steam Flyer

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
50,767
13,486
Eastern NC
Charlie Foxtrot said:
Perhaps we've miscommunicated, but I can't think of a single instance that the hurricane track at five days remained nearly the same over the five days. Usually the error is multiples of tens, more likely hundreds of miles. And the cone (an amalgamation of many disparate forecast) is usually so absurdly large as to be next to useless.

For example, take 2019's Dorian. A 5-Day Forecast put the hurricane ashore in my front yard, as an insanely strong Cat 5. Instead, it inexplicably stalled for three days over the Bahamas, then churned to the nor-norwest. It never even hit the US, only lipping NC, before striking Cantucky. The scientist only had another drink, shrugged their shoulders, and asked for more funding.

What I'm saying is that these bastards are still little understood. With the 2-3 day forecasts, I start to really look at the forecasts and tracks; before that, I'm only slightly interested, but making plans. The 2022 season wasn't kind to the 5-Day Forecast, and I see no reason to believe the 7-Day forecast will not exponentially increase the futility of the wheaxrher guesser's long range forecasts.
Click to expand...
I will dig up my file storm tracks overlaid over successive days. I did not do every single storm

This chart is almost 10 years old. But the trend is accurate.
noaa-hurricane-track-error-jpg.595204




This is the only one I have handy. It's from the first year they even did 5-day tracks. Yet you can see that the track was quite accurate much further out.


Somewhere I have a file of about a hundred of these. There are a few where the storm center's track goes outside the 5-day cone, but not more than 5 or 6.

UntitledNOAA track for H-Isobe 2012.jpg


NOAA hurricane track error.jpg
 
Pertinacious Tom

Pertinacious Tom

Importunate Member
65,112
2,441
Punta Gorda FL
Snaggletooth said:
GM, it juste seemes I ussialley see you poeste earley in morneng.....
Click to expand...
That's my routine and I'm usually passing out in my chair at that time of night.

But it's a curricane thread. Let's see... signed up for T-Mobile home internet and put Starlink on standby so I have to go get the Starlink dish off the roof and put it inside. If a storm approaches, we'll activate it and can use it after the storm if the cell network is clogged with traffic.

The final backup has for years been the land line. It hasn't been connected to a phone in probably 20 years. It went to a printer/fax up until about ten years ago. Since then, we've just paid for it every month and I keep a few old fashioned, low tech landline phones in the shed. It had gone up to $66/month. Cancelled. I'm going to toss those old phones next time I notice them.

I have 55 gallons of ethanol-free gas and 20 gallons of diesel on hand and plan to keep it that way through the season.

I sold both my generators and plan to buy at least one replacement but I'm not sure which way I want to go. One that can run the AC in the big house is a monster machine, very expensive to buy and very thirsty to run. One that can run the AC in my little house is much more reasonable but if the outage persisted for long, the resulting divorce would make me wish I had bought the big machine.

We were lucky with Ian. Cool, dry October days without AC are OK. August days are just not, even for heat-tolerant native crackers like me.
 
Foreverslow

Foreverslow

Super Anarchist
2,540
633
Deltaville Virginia
Back in the late 80s, I attended a symposium at MIT.
Featured speaker was Dr Danny Hillis, computer scientist at MIT and who had just started his company Thinking Machines which was based on massively parallel processing. At the time all machines were von Neumann based meaning 1 processor doing 1 thing at a time.
He was working on breaking up problems into sections that could be worked on concurrently.

The joint was packed to the rafters. The first 3 rows were all IBM. You could tell because they wore blacks suits and ties, white shirts and looked like Men in Black sans the sunglasses

Dr Hillis walked onto the stage with a pony tail, a bowling shirt and jeans. This was unheard of in the IT industry.

The first words out his mouth was describing the speed specifications of the Cray X-MP, the worlds fastest computer at 850 MF and it used liquid helium to cool the processor.
He then shouts at the audience, "I don't get out of bed for performance increases that are not at least 5000 times that". You could hear a pin drop on the floor.
He continued.. "You are wondering what will we do with all this power? I want to be able to plan an outdoor wedding for my daughter that is not even born yet". He was talking of knowing the weather every day 20 years into the future.

The complexities of running every breeze, every place on earth, and calculating forward is not a trivial matter.

Today's steps are small, but they are steps forward. Will we see long range forecasts with such accuracy in our lifetime? Unlikely, but the only way we have a chance is to start at refining 5 days then 7 days, then 2 weeks etc.
 
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