Ian just exploded.

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
At the risk of sounding like the Weather Channel, 'Ian just exploded".

Quick update on hurricane Ian. The storm went through a very rapid intensification the last six hours. The NE shear as forecast has abated and the core has a solid wrap of very cold cloud tops and intense convection almost completely surrounding the center of circulation. It appears that all components are now vertically stacked and the motion is NNW which will take Ian over Western Cuba. The track guidance is now more narrowly clustered and the consensus tack has been shifted a bit to the east from the last few runs. This takes New Orleans and most of the central Gulf Coast off the table assuming the hurricane behaves and maintains the anticiapted track. I am not gonna lie, Ian may be a VERY* intense hurricane on his trip between Cuba and the Florida Peninsula. Late in the perio, SW shear is anticipated to weaken Ian if he makes it until Thursday afternoon and remains offshore the peninsula. I am dubious that this will be the case as each model run has made an adjustment to the right and I anticipate this continuing between now and Tuesday when the final track should be better established.

As always, plan for the worst, hope for the best and help those who are unable to help themselves in advance of the storm. .

 

kent_island_sailor

Super Anarchist
27,228
5,136
Kent Island!
Yikes!
I have friends in Punta Gorda, it might be tough for them.
One of the ensemble tracks goes right over my house too. As is almost always the case, coming across land will weaken the wind effects but it won't stop the storm for flooding the shit out of us.
 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
Yikes!
I have friends in Punta Gorda, it might be tough for them.
One of the ensemble tracks goes right over my house too. As is almost always the case, coming across land will weaken the wind effects but it won't stop the storm for flooding the shit out of us.
Punta Gorda is likely to see some flooding from surge and rains, heavy at time as well. They may also get some tornadic activity. If the track shifts right again, they could see more significant impacts.
 

sailman

Super Anarchist
8,323
436
Portsmouth, RI
NHC has it coming ashore just north of Tampa as a low CAT2. EURO model has it begin to stall, wobble and strengthen off Tampa and then correct North West
 
I’ve seen this storms track keep coming back to land fall just north of Tampa Bay for a week now on the Windy App. My sister has a house in Clearwater Fl. 1/4 mile inland Near the Bay and about 5 feet above a small lake / Bay level. Wind forecasts keep showing Ians’’ SW winds on and offshore of Tampa Bay as Ian makes landfall. This could be a BIG problem for Tampa Bay area residents due to storm serge / wind related flooding…
 
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craiglicata

New member
2
1
Chicago
Yikes!
I have friends in Punta Gorda, it might be tough for them.
One of the ensemble tracks goes right over my house too. As is almost always the case, coming across land will weaken the wind effects but it won't stop the storm for flooding the shit out of us.
I live in Punta Gorda and everyone is preparing with supplies and protection
 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
The forecast remains murky with tea leaves refusing to work together to give us a concensus on where the eyewall may eventually come ashore. The more reliable EURO is now wobbling directly offshore from Tampa. Meanwhile the GFS has just shifted back to the west a touch, which I am buying into because to my eye, the center of circulation is currently a touch more west than the previous forecast track. The next 12 hours are likely to give us a better understanding of the track come Wednesday night into Thursday. Regardless, I think that Tampa Bay is going to get a fair amount of flooding from surge whether there is a direct hit or not. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

 

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