Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

fufkin

Super Anarchist
You guys have been talking about it so I'll throw it out there....is there an over/under in terms of boat speed and outrunning weather? I know the Dashews had it at about 10-12 knots. Not average, but boat speed in terms of outrunning in any direction under sail or power with large tanks. Based on how fast a weather system might move...opinions?

 
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weightless

Super Anarchist
5,607
581
You guys have been talking about it so I'll throw it out there....is there an over/under in terms of boat speed and outrunning weather? I know the Dashews had it at about 10-12 knots. Not average, but boat speed in terms of outrunning in any direction under sail or power with large tanks. Based on how fast a weather system might move...opinions?
It's a bit stochastic. You can mitigate the risk of some level of wind (say gale force) but you can't get it down to zero on a significant passage. A front might cover most of an ocean basin and come ashore on a continent.  If you're between them and realities of bars or politics don't favor you then there isn't a practical speed that will get you clear. With smaller systems you have the vagaries of forecasting. A tropical wave might develop a low level center or two anywhere in a wide area. Models might move their solution around a hundred miles in  3 hours. GFS and EC might well disagree. Far form shore the weather models sometimes go off on wild tangents (at least on the scales that 20 knots will make a difference on) and take quite some time to get corrected.  A fast moving low might fly out of the topics or SO and the models might disagree wildly on where it's headed. Given enough time some wx forecast will be ambiguous and it will not be clear where to route. In the fullness of time you will see bad weather at sea. That said, the ability and willingness to motor for a day or two and decent wx info can make an enormous difference in the weather you will encounter and the time you will spend on passage. My WAG is that the ability to maintain 6 knots in any direction for 48 hours gets you a substantial majority of the advantage you'd get if you had 25 knots for the same period but every increase in speed and range should help.

 

ProaSailor

Super Anarchist
5,926
702
Oregon
You guys have been talking about it so I'll throw it out there....is there an over/under in terms of boat speed and outrunning weather? I know the Dashews had it at about 10-12 knots. Not average, but boat speed in terms of outrunning in any direction under sail or power with large tanks. Based on how fast a weather system might move...opinions?
"in any direction"?  There's a rub, eh?  SV Delos has claimed 200 miles/day in their best conditions but apparently can't sail to windward well at all.

The numbers I posted yesterday for Nereida (88 nm./day = 3.7 knots) and Jzerro (147 nm./day = 6.1 knots) are average VMG over nearly 3,000 nm. great circle distance between end points.  While not identical conditions, both crossed through the ITCZ doldrums on roughly similar routes.  They include calms and headwinds and all the zig-zags each boat went through, which is somewhat dependent on how attentively ("aggressively"?) each boat is sailed to its potential.  Real boat speeds were obviously higher, depending on each boat's track, and it's quite likely that superior windward ability results in a shorter track.

As to "outrunning weather" (or seeking favorable wind), that long term daily average VMG is indicative of the practical limit for weather planning.  If you believe the three day forecast, for example, Nereida can almost ignore weather more than 264 miles away (3 * 88) because no matter what she does, she won't get there within the forecast window.  The weather range for Jzerro's average VMG in this example would be 441 miles (3 * 147).

It's a bit more complicated than this, of course, since some weather patterns are more stable than others and your estimated daily runs in current/expected conditions count more than VMG averages over thousands of miles.  Bottom line though is that a 4ksb is a sitting duck for weather systems and must suffer through whatever comes along.

 

El Borracho

Sam’s friend
6,253
2,330
Pacific Rim
Weather systems tend to move faster than the boats we sail. And their influence covers a larger extent than one might guess by looking at the charts. For example, you might try to run from a typhoon a few days in advance, however they tend have much dead air around them.Same with the calm conditions ahead of cold fronts dropping out of the high latitudes.  If you motor away in some (guessed) direction for a couple of days you have used up your fuel and options.

Windward performance, the value of which is often discounted by cruisers, is quite valuable in transiting the ITCZ, doldrums and progressing thru the dead air ahead of a system. When the wind is in the low single digits the best direction to sail is close to windward. Beating or close reaching. Hopefully windward is a beneficial direction. If I were in Nereida's predicament in the ITCZ I would have been awake and "racing" whenever winds were favorable. Days at a stretch is necessary. Sleeping with sails furled when they were not. And with a boat that scoots to windward with 5 knots of breeze.

Sacrificial working ends on the reef outhauls are advised. She has maybe worn out her gooseneck too...with a long long way to go. Never never slat on a crossing.

 

valis

Super Anarchist
3,773
597
Friday Harbor, WA
Equipment issues: Neither solar panel is providing any juice. In a way that's a good thing, since it tells me that it's a wiring problem. Having both panels fail so close together is quite unlikely. (And she has mentioned green butt connections).  I hope she's got enough spare wire, connectors, etc.

 

valis

Super Anarchist
3,773
597
Friday Harbor, WA
Nov 4, 20:22 UTC -- Jeanne has crossed the equator!  She's currently sailing almost due south, at 5.8 kts.

And she's making some progress on her electrical problems.

Way to go, Jeanne!

 
These young people today...... sigh...

We're making way roughly S-SSW at ~6kt in F3-4 from ESE. (I'm changing to the Beaufort scale for wind strength from now on - any wind speed I give will be a 'guesstimate'...) The AIS has an independent GPS input and is giving me position, COG and SOG - the only problem being it 'jumps about' a lot, so deducing actual speed & course readings is difficult.

1200 PDT (=1900GMT) - end of Day31. We made ? n.ml.(DMG) over the 24 hr period since yesterday's noon position. Presently, don't know distance - with no plotter, it has to be calculated... Goes like this:

Square root of [(60.26-12.40)squared + (132.65-8.66)squared] = sq root of 17884.0997 = 134 to nearest integer.

Does she rely totally on electronic navigation and not carry a copy of Nories?

The Traverse Table would solve her problems re day's run.... as long as she knows to convert DLong to Dep as she gets into higher lats...

If she still needs to know how to calculate Great Circle distances and initial course she just needs to use the Haversine formula... simply replace the GP with the lat long of destination.....

Not that I can see why she needs that.... working the winds will be more of a concern on the way to the Horn....staying well west of the SE Pacific High and well offshore (500 miles or more ) south of about 40* S.

The traditional concept of the roaring forties flew out the window when the first WX sats were launched.... for the last 2 months the wind along the patagonian coast  from 40*S to  Magallanes has been calm or Sly for 90% of the time with big highs sitting offshore....

sopac.jpg

 
If somebody (Valis?) is in contact with her they could draw her attention to the Chilean weather products.....

'Tues 5pm Another rain squall lies off to starboard affecting us... I was busy studying what weather information is available as we head further S towards Cape Horn and on...

..............

Been busy exploring weather information again - a matter of requesting files to see what turns up - they don't always give what they seem to indicate. Saildocs is an excellent resource - I can request almost any file on the Internet so long as I have its correct URL - but, clearly, I can't follow any links given within it. So I'm looking at weather information available from French Polynesia, Australia and New Zealand for when I lose that available from NOAA (U.S.), which only goes down to 20S.'

Available here in low bandwidth if she has iridium or whatever

http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/indice/english.htm

Also available by good old fashioned fax from Valpo (CBV) and Punta Arenas (CBM)......

Details of skeds and frequencies on the NOAA wefax page....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/marine/rfax.pdf

The list is a bit outdated but at 1100Z they broadcast an up-to-date sked.






 

carta.jpg

 

valis

Super Anarchist
3,773
597
Friday Harbor, WA
If somebody (Valis?) is in contact with her they could draw her attention to the Chilean weather products.....

'Tues 5pm Another rain squall lies off to starboard affecting us... I was busy studying what weather information is available as we head further S towards Cape Horn and on...

..............

Been busy exploring weather information again - a matter of requesting files to see what turns up - they don't always give what they seem to indicate. Saildocs is an excellent resource - I can request almost any file on the Internet so long as I have its correct URL - but, clearly, I can't follow any links given within it. So I'm looking at weather information available from French Polynesia, Australia and New Zealand for when I lose that available from NOAA (U.S.), which only goes down to 20S.'

Available here in low bandwidth if she has iridium or whatever

http://web.directemar.cl/met/jturno/indice/english.htm

Also available by good old fashioned fax from Valpo (CBV) and Punta Arenas (CBM)......

Details of skeds and frequencies on the NOAA wefax page....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/marine/rfax.pdf

The list is a bit outdated but at 1100Z they broadcast an up-to-date sked. 
Those are good links!  I'm not in regular contact, but I can send her email via SSB WInlink (I don't have her satphone #).  I will send her a short list of the synoptic chart URLs, and she should be able to request the image files via saildocs.  I assume that she has the NOAA "Big list of worldwide WFAX transmissions", but will offer to send her that as well.

 

valis

Super Anarchist
3,773
597
Friday Harbor, WA
Those are good links!  I'm not in regular contact, but I can send her email via SSB WInlink (I don't have her satphone #).  I will send her a short list of the synoptic chart URLs, and she should be able to request the image files via saildocs.  I assume that she has the NOAA "Big list of worldwide WFAX transmissions", but will offer to send her that as well.
Here is her reply:

Wonderful!
Thank you so much!!
Just gor MSLP and wind charts - just what I wanted.
Getting Drake Passage - not clear what that is...
Do they have any Ice Reports for Drake Passage (maybe that's what it is?)
Can you find out if Cape Naval is transmitting from Cape area in S.Africa?
They are MRCC for S. Atlantic region.
And are wxfaxes  available from SA Met Service, similar to these Chilean ones?
Thanks for your help - really useful info - making good use of my Iridium airtime!
I've found some sea ice charts and South Africa marine WX, and sent her the links.  I also found an old schedule for Cape Naval WFAX, and sent her the text (same data as in the big NOAA worldwide WFAX schedule).

Can anyone find good sources for this stuff?  The ones I found were really too large (in kBytes) for her to use regularly.

 
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Norse Horse

Super Anarchist
4,987
546
The Rock
She sailed through a fishing fleet. Seems to have poor butt connectors on her solar.

" We made 121 n.ml.(DMG) over the 24 hr period since yesterday's 1100 PST position, despite gentle sailing.. Full canvas overnight, and up to now, in the lighter wind then. Sail trimming, as usual, for our present broad reach, gave increased speed! Position & weather report posted to Winlink.org and Shiptrak.org (using my US callsign of kc2iov) not long after 1100 PST (= 1900 GMT): TIME: 2018/11/10 19:00GMT LATITUDE: 13-33.14S LONGITUDE: 127-50.06W COURSE: 180T SPEED: 5.8kt WIND_SPEED: 13kt WIND_DIR: NE SWELL_DIR: ENE SWELL_HT: 2.0m CLOUDS: 20% BARO: 1013.9hPa TREND: 1 AIR_TEMP: 28.0C SEA_TEMP: 33.0C COMMENT: Bright, sunny some cloud.. Working on solar panels "

https://svnereida.com/blog

 
Lots of fishing boats in the south pacific but not many in her immeadiate past area.... I wonder of she is picking up those AIS net markers that they use?

Interesting that she is appearing on free/non subscription Marinetraffic.com as a 'named' contact... maybe  she has some sort of subscription that does that??

That's her in the middle in purple.... fishing boats are brownish... cargo ships green..

fishboats.jpg

 

toddster

Super Anarchist
4,076
903
The Gorge
I thought the "named" contacts were from ground stations and the un-named ones were from satellite data? At least that's how it appears in my vicinity.  (Sometimes this results in vessels showing up twice, a few miles apart, since the data comes in at different times.)   

 

valis

Super Anarchist
3,773
597
Friday Harbor, WA
Yes, the unnamed targets are from sat reception, unless you are paying big bucks to have full sat-ais reporting.  I'm paying about $6 a month to have Marinetraffic.com show me Jeanne's AIS reports when a satellite picks them up (you can pay for one vessel, more vessels, or all).  It's actually been a couple of weeks since her previous sat reception, but one came in last night:

SatAIS 11-11-18.jpg

 
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