Jeanne Socrates - nonstop solo RTW 2018

ProaSailor

dreaming my life away...
6,018
733
Oregon
Is this system passing through faster than expected?  Looks like wind clocks to NE by 1900?  https://www.windy.com/?46.587,-123.761,8

Windy1005c.jpg

 

valis

Super Anarchist
3,773
597
Friday Harbor, WA
The NAM5km model has the low a little west of the ECMWF9km model, but not by much.  I've been using NAM since the windspeed seems to better match the JdF buoy reported windspeed, but I don't know if this is significant.

Did you get a "model comparison" preview this morning on windy.com?  I played with it a bit, and now I can't find it.  It looked interesting.

 

sv patience

New member
You guys may know this, but you can also display some of the weather buoys and stations on Windy. Some of the buoys unfortunately don't show up for some reason (e.g. a lot of the Environment Canada buoys). Others only show up if you zoom in pretty close. The US offshore buoys 300 miles off the coast show up pretty easily as does the one off the Columbia. Valis your buoy #46087 shows up if you zoom in close enough. It's remarkable how accurate the models seem to be some times.

I circled the button to turn these on in Windy in red in the screenshot below.

Tim

  windy_socrates.jpg

 

ProaSailor

dreaming my life away...
6,018
733
Oregon
Did you get a "model comparison" preview this morning on windy.com?
Not sure what you mean?  The "eye" just seems to be passing to the east faster than I recall from yesterday's model.

This is now (~1400) - SE @ 29 knots, gusting to 45 knots:

Windy1005d.jpg

Windy1005e.jpg

 
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Jud - s/v Sputnik

Super Anarchist
5,812
1,486
Canada
You guys may know this, but you can also display some of the weather buoys and stations on Windy. Some of the buoys unfortunately don't show up for some reason (e.g. a lot of the Environment Canada buoys). Others only show up if you zoom in pretty close. The US offshore buoys 300 miles off the coast show up pretty easily as does the one off the Columbia. Valis your buoy #46087 shows up if you zoom in close enough. It's remarkable how accurate the models seem to be some times.

I circled the button to turn these on in Windy in red in the screenshot below.

Tim

 
What the heck - countries’ EEZ’s only extend 200 miles offshore (I think). The US has buoys 300 miles out?!  (Also didn’t realize the continental shelf went out that far.)

 
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Foiling Optimist

Super Anarchist
1,188
291
Vancouver BC.
I'd seen this thread appear and assumed someone had posted in an old thread from the previous record, but no, she's off again! Awesome.  I just read the history: https://svnereida.com/history  What a story of perseverance. Well, perseverance and an adequate financial situation.  I like that this is sort of the anti-Golden Globe, with an old person in a new design (built 2009) instead of a young person in an old design. And with proper weather reports!

 

sv patience

New member
I dunno what the offshore buoys are primary used for, but they are quite a ways out there. There is a string of 6 or 7 of them running up/down the west coast. I think most of them are operated by NOAA. I looked up one of them, and it is anchored in 4000 meters of water... way off the continental shelf. Environment Canada has some buoys out there too, but I can't seem to find them in Windy for some reason. There are some inshore buoys as well, but you have to zoom in to see them. Here's a screenshot of the string of offshore buoys in Windy:

windy_buoys.jpg

Tim

 

weightless

Super Anarchist
5,607
581
I dunno what the offshore buoys are primary used for, but they are quite a ways out there
NOAA has buoys all over the world. Last time I was in Samoa there was a research ship taking a break from their task of setting big drift buoys out in the middle of the tropical Pacific. There are various types with different sensor and coms packages. Some of the buoy data goes directly into GFS, EC, WWIII, NOGAPS, etc.

 

ProaSailor

dreaming my life away...
6,018
733
Oregon
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ProaSailor

dreaming my life away...
6,018
733
Oregon
Her blog is offline due to "Bandwidth Limit Exceeded".  As of 1500 Sunday, she has emerged from a light air slow patch and is trucking south at 5.8 knots, heading 199 degrees, ~136 nm west of Lincoln City, Oregon, ~178 nm north of California (at the wind speed marker below).  Wind direction is good (NW for days, less than 20 knots now) so by late Tuesday, she'll be approaching a persistent rough area off Eureka, Cape Mendocino, where wind will be N @ 26 knots gusting to 40 knots, waves to 13' at 8 seconds.  No gaps in that weather until late Thursday, staying well offshore appears to be the best way way around it.

https://www.windy.com/?43.614,-124.799,8,m:eTYacC4

Windy1007a.jpg

Windy1007b.jpg

 
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Jud - s/v Sputnik

Super Anarchist
5,812
1,486
Canada
“She'll be approaching a persistent rough area off Eureka, Cape Mendocino, where wind will be N @ 26 knots gusting to 40 knots, waves to 13' at 8 seconds”

Re: wave height and period, how best to “understand” this - I mean, how best to get a feel for it?

I’ve heard surfers discuss wave height/period re: suitability/quality of waves for surfing, and I’m currently “getting into” sea kayaking, because I’ve long been intrigued by it and partly to expand my understanding of weather, etc. as a sailor —and wave period definitely comes into play in sea kayaking.

But, I’ve no experience with offshore wave forecasts for sailing.  Height, I get...but re: period (combined with height), what numbers (range) are “good”/comfortable and what range are “bad”/uncomfortable?

I’m just trying to get a gut feel for it, as I have a basic gut feel for “25-30 knots” (and I know that 25-30 knots in the open ocean produces different seas than the short ones in confined waters of, say, the Georgia Strait/Salish Sea.)

 
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ProaSailor

dreaming my life away...
6,018
733
Oregon
I tried to change "late Tuesday" to just "Tuesday" in my post yesterday but the edit feature had already timed out.

This morning (0800 Monday), she is ~165 nm west of Coos Bay, slightly south of it, ~75 nm north of the California border, doing 7.8 knots at times.  So she could be approaching that latitude tonight.  She is now ~168 nm north of Cape Mendocino, though will be ~200 nm west of it on her present heading of 201 degrees.

Her blog is still down.

 

Baldur

Super Anarchist
I may get corrected on some of this. ButI should be close. 

The waves on the straight of Georgia are relatively short period compared to eaves of the same height on the open seas, mostly. These 13' 8sec period she is hitting now though are more like our waves in the straights of Georgia. Which makes them steep. 

10' eaves on a 12 sec period ate very gentle. 10' 6 second will be much steeper. 

Take a sheet of graph paper and use the horizontal for period and the vertical for height. Look at some weather buoys and make some graph of what they are reporting. I don't think it will show you exactly the right pitch of the waves. But it will give u some idea of the relative change.  Graph some.conditions you are familiar with and then some new ones and u should be able.to visualize the difference. 

 

TQA

Super Anarchist
1,208
35
Caribbean
Jeanne has been down in the Southern ocean on multiple occasions. I don't think she will be bothered by whats coming.

 

Bristol-Cruiser

Super Anarchist
4,523
1,162
Great Lakes
“She'll be approaching a persistent rough area off Eureka, Cape Mendocino, where wind will be N @ 26 knots gusting to 40 knots, waves to 13' at 8 seconds”

Re: wave height and period, how best to “understand” this - I mean, how best to get a feel for it?

I’ve heard surfers discuss wave height/period re: suitability/quality of waves for surfing, and I’m currently “getting into” sea kayaking, because I’ve long been intrigued by it and partly to expand my understanding of weather, etc. as a sailor —and wave period definitely comes into play in sea kayaking.

But, I’ve no experience with offshore wave forecasts for sailing.  Height, I get...but re: period (combined with height), what numbers (range) are “good”/comfortable and what range are “bad”/uncomfortable?

I’m just trying to get a gut feel for it, as I have a basic gut feel for “25-30 knots” (and I know that 25-30 knots in the open ocean produces different seas than the short ones in confined waters of, say, the Georgia Strait/Salish Sea.)
You need to consider wave height and period along with other factors like wave direction, whether there are multiple wave trains in the area, the kind of boat you are on, your course in relationship to the waves and the characteristics of the boat you are on. When we were traversing the Indian Ocean from Cocos-Keeling to Mauritius we had many days with winds between 25 and 35 and waves in the high teens to low 20' range but with a long period perhaps 12 seconds. It was entirely comfortable. Based on my Lake Ontario experience (many years) the idea of 30 knot winds and 20 foot waves would have kept me up at night but with the right conditions there is no problem. In general wave periods 10 seconds and up are good and 7 seconds or less are bad for me. Also waves in the open ocean are much nicer than on-soundings, in particular if the depth is less than 60 feet.

Another factor comes to mind, if the water is warm that is a plus. Much nicer to be hit by spray, and even the occasional wave if the water is 80F or more.

 
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