Joaquin is now a hurricane...Plan ahead

[DryArmour]

Joaquin is now a HURRICANE.

My "OPINION" is that there is likely more left shift than right shift in the middle of the model phase. Current GFS has it pretty much right over head Solomons, MD on Saturday mid morning. Delaware Bay gets ugly in this scenario as well. If we get even more left shift then the top of the Chesapeake could pile up hard Friday night into Saturday. The intensity forecast is an issue for me as well but I need a few more runs before I call foul on the GFDL.

NHC does have the most likely track up the western side of the Chesapeake so if I had property there, I'd be planning for a LOT of flooding. The long range forecast for this cyclone is highly uncertain with regard to track and IMHO intensity.

More as the hurricane develops.

 

[DryArmour]

UPDATE:

The EURO model which is easily the best performing cyclone model has a definite right turn and does not bring the hurricane ashore. Hard to ignore that since it has time and again proven to be the correct solution especially long term...Stay vigilant though people.

 

[Texas Strong]

Or it could go right up the middle and plow into Rhode Island.

 

[us7070]

000WTNT41 KNHC 300849

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015

500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

The coldest convective cloud tops are located to the east of the

estimated center position, but there have been hints of an eye in

infrared imagery overnight. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak

estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to

investigate Joaquin this morning. Conditions are expected to be

conducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin

moving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The

hurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET,

and ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global

models show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC

forecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has

Joaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be

moving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which

should result in slow weakening.

Joaquin continues to move west-southwestward under the influence of

a short-wave ridge to its north, and the initial motion estimate is

245/05. This motion should continue for the next 24 hours, and

Joaquin is expected to then turn slowly westward as the ridge

weakens on Thursday. The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show Joaquin

moving farther southwestward into the central Bahamas than the rest

of the guidance. The new NHC track in the short range is a little

south of the previous one, but north of the UKMET/ECMWF solution.

Given this new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a

Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for

part of the northwestern Bahamas.

After 36 hours, Joaquin is forecast to turn northwestward and then

northward as it interacts with a deep-layer trough that cuts off

over the southeastern United States in about 3 days. Much of the

deterministic guidance shows Joaquin turning northwestward

toward the mid-Atlantic coast by days 4 and 5. However, the ECMWF

continues to show an offshore solution with a track west of Bermuda,

but has shifted to the left this cycle by about 150 miles at day 5.

While the overall synoptic pattern is similar between the models,

the eventual track of Joaquin appears sensitive to just how far

southwest it moves in the first 36 to 48 hours and how this affect

the eventual interaction with the upper-level low. The GFS, HWRF,

and GFDL show a sharp turn back to toward the coast in 4 days, while

the ECMWF is slower to bring Joaquin northward and ejects the

cyclone toward the northeast. The UKMET is between those two

scenarios with a broader turn back toward the coast by day 5. There

is still ensemble support for a wide range of solutions, so

confidence in any deterministic model solution remains quite low.

The NHC track has been nudged a little to the left this cycle to

reflect the westward shift in the guidance, but lies on the eastern

side of the guidance envelope given the ECMWF solution.

Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period

remains very low, since the environmental steering currents are

complex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.

Given that a wide range of outcomes is possible, it is too soon to

say what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 25.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

12H 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

96H 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$

Forecaster Brennan

 

[Edith Bicknell]

Or it could go right up the middle and plow into Rhode Island.

now that would be a wikid pissah

 

[Slick470]

Thanks again Mark for providing updates here. Always nice to get a non weather channel take on this stuff.

 

[DryArmour]

As was noted in NHC's discussion, it is the subtle track deviations early in the period that will determine just how far East/West of forecast track the system will eventually go. It is hard to ignore the ECMWF as it is easily the best performer in long range tropical cyclone modeling in recent years. As the discussion notes it too has shifted to the left by about 150 miles but we'll see if the next run continues this trend or eeks back to the right a bit. Regardless, if you are anywhere from Charleston to New England, it is worth at least paying attention to.

 

[aloha27]

Thanks Mark!

 

[Trendsetter]

Thanks as always Mark!! I think I am hearing everyone with a new boat in town for the Annapolis show next weekend collectively holding there breath and waiting to see what happens next!!! I will be following this closely, up here in Cape Cod with a yard full of boats

 

[Innocent Bystander]

Yeah, Thanks. I think....

 

[Sean]

Or it could go right up the middle and plow into Rhode Island.

Could, right after it slams Sag Harbor.

 

[captanarchy560]

Mark, what would you expect as far as storm surge/sea level in the NJ area. The new to me 505 (as of yesterday, of course) I have on the beach is now becoming an object of worry.

 

[Suijin]

All the reports on the various model runs point out that track prediction at this point is totally up in the air given the complex weather systems over the east coast. That said, as of last night 6 of 9 predicted tracks had the storm coming ashore between Cape Hatteras and the Cape May, so it's not looking good. Regarding the superiority of the euro model, yes it has a better track record but it's no statistical certainty.

The tides are already wicked high here in the Bay. If Joaquin pushes water up it's throat we're right fucked.

Spa and Back creek are already filled with anchored boats here for the boat show. Holding in both is far from great even in the best of times, and travel lifts are going to be backed up through Sunday I bet depending on what the forecast shows this evening or tomorrow morning. I would not want to be one of those folks, trying to figure out what to do. Not a lot of good options.

I'm either going to get hauled or go buy a full spool of rope and spider web my boat. Needless to say I'm keeping a very close eye on the models.

Speaking of getting hauled, saw this in the slings this morning. Maybe they'll keep it out of the water until next week, lol:

 

[DRIFTW00D]

Mark, what would you expect as far as storm surge/sea level in the NJ area. The new to me 505 (as of yesterday, of course) I have on the beach is now becoming an object of worry.

That's a no brianer. Pull it home and wax it before this weekend. Sounds like it might not be center boarder weather or dry. Unless U got named storm insurance getting them off any east coast beach might save you a midnight beach visit.

 

[Suijin]

Mark, what would you expect as far as storm surge/sea level in the NJ area. The new to me 505 (as of yesterday, of course) I have on the beach is now becoming an object of worry.

If the boat is on the beach then you're in one of the bays. I would get it the hell out of there if I were you, or make sure you're ready to in time before the storm hits. If the storm makes landfall around the Delaware or a bit south you're going to see a shitload of water pushed into the South Jersey bays for sure.

I guess you were not in Jersey during Hurricane Sandy...

 

[steph2ma]

Mark,

Many thanks. Keep the info/best guesses coming. So much hangs in the balance with these sorts of things. Please keep the tracking/wind velocities coming.

My boat is on trailer, mast up, cover on, in Deltaville (Lower Chesapeake.)

Naturally I live 3 hours away from boat, so I am hoping to hear a forecast that would not lead me to lose a day during my busy season at work.

Again, great thanks to Mark and others for help with the Wx.

<<Buy his shirts, great shirts, outstanding deal>>>

 

[Suijin]

Deltaville has tons of guys you could toss a couple of Franklins to and have them move your boat to higher ground and strap it down. Call Bubby Crown's and I'm sure they can do it or point you to someone who can.

 

[captanarchy560]

Mark, what would you expect as far as storm surge/sea level in the NJ area. The new to me 505 (as of yesterday, of course) I have on the beach is now becoming an object of worry.

If the boat is on the beach then you're in one of the bays. I would get it the hell out of there if I were you, or make sure you're ready to in time before the storm hits. If the storm makes landfall around the Delaware or a bit south you're going to see a shitload of water pushed into the South Jersey bays for sure.

I guess you were not in Jersey during Hurricane Sandy...

Yup, on the west shore of the bay in Sandy Hook, and I was around for Sandy, thus my trepidation. I'm not so worried about the waves as I am the rise in tide. Currently keeping an eye on the weather, but erring on the side of caution. I'll make the call tomorrow morning. Just seeking more educated input.

 

[DryArmour]

I'm not saying it is correct but the brand new (1300HRS EDT) GFS is left of the previous track by maybe 80 miles.

EDIT- The intensity has also finally been changed into a much more reasonable CAT 3 given the expected conditions and very warm SSTs.

.