Jobs hit a whopping 517,000 in January

[Steam Flyer]

If you compare that to the non-farm openings trend, there are still indications of labor supply not filling existing demand.

Job Openings: Total Nonfarm

Graph and download economic data for Job Openings: Total Nonfarm (JTSJOL) from Dec 2000 to Dec 2022 about job openings, vacancy, nonfarm, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Anecdotally, I'm having to allocate more resources to training and development to utilize workers coming in with lower baseline skills. That seems to be a common theme with employers, especially if they work primarily with younger folks.

Well, when you cut taxes so schools can't do shit, and the military stops holding training because their deployment schedule is frantic and their congresscritters are demanding they hire subcontractors from their district to do all technical work, nobody else is training any new work force.

 

[pusslicker]

Didnt they add 1.0 million in December?

Is this really all you have dumbfuck?

 

[Clove Hitch]

Does this include the 2600 fake nurses from the fake Florida colleges?

Asking for a freind!

 

[Ease the sheet.]

Dang, that's too hot. Fed's gonna ratchet up rates again.

Rates have to get back to their long term average eventually...

 

[Ease the sheet.]

Well, when you cut taxes so schools can't do shit, and the military stops holding training because their deployment schedule is frantic and their congresscritters are demanding they hire subcontractors from their district to do all technical work, nobody else is training any new work force.

Thread drift...

Should schools train people for jobs, or should they educate?


My view is job training should be the domain of the employer.

 

[BeSafe]

Dang, that's too hot. Fed's gonna ratchet up rates again.

They've said they'll do another quarter point... and then see.

In this context, the Fed is coordinating closely with the Europeans to stay ahead of their rate increases to keep the dollar from overwhelming the Euro again. That's why they (the other central banks of the west) all went up around 0.5% the very next day. The fed is trying to keep the US inflation in check while giving the rest of the west more room to navigate their own problems. So far it's working... ish... mostly...

Within the labor report, there's room for both up and down evaluation - in other words, the Fed isn't really going to care much. The good news for them was that there wasn't hugely good news. Just normal seasonal stuff. For example, from the BLS https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm

A quick dip into excel shows the majority of new jobs are part timers and the majority of those are women moving back into the workforce. The last year of 3 million jobs is 50:50 full/part time, much lower than the historical 80:20.

Hence, the big jump up in service sector jobs, offsetting the layoffs in the tech sector - which actually aren't showing up yet because severance packages and such. From the Feds perspective, as heartless as it sounds - they'll trade a part time waitress for a programmer any day - at least in today's world, they would.

Personally, I do think they'll pause after the next hike - but I don't think they'll cut anytime soon. They needed to create space for the Euros which they've done. Four-ish percent is at the bottom of the range they'd like it to be moving forward anyway. The energy costs pressures aren't going away so that part of inflation is 'sticky'. The fight will be with the long end of the bond market and lending. Banks are getting paid to do nothing. And if that's how they make the most money, they'll keep doing nothing - which means lending tightens, money supply shrinks, capital projects won't happen, etc. That'll cause it's own problems.

 

[El Borracho]

They will just default, blame it on the Dems and win the next election. It's the script.

“Why do the Dems hate the unemployed?”

 

[Steam Flyer]

Thread drift...

Should schools train people for jobs, or should they educate?


My view is job training should be the domain of the employer.

I agree; but it's difficult for a worker to train another person while still getting work done. This is why businesses have been resistant to providing training.

There needs to be a steady feedback loop between businesses, industry sectors, training programs (teaching more than one person at a time introduces economies of scale... not always ideal but much more efficient at the basic level), and schools/education.

There is a difference between education and training, for example welding... lots of welding training programs around the country turn out people with knowledge and skills, but it still takes some on-the-job familiarity with specifics before they can turn to, profitably.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

I agree; but it's difficult for a worker to train another person while still getting work done. This is why businesses have been resistant to providing training.

There needs to be a steady feedback loop between businesses, industry sectors, training programs (teaching more than one person at a time introduces economies of scale... not always ideal but much more efficient at the basic level), and schools/education.

There is a difference between education and training, for example welding... lots of welding training programs around the country turn out people with knowledge and skills, but it still takes some on-the-job familiarity with specifics before they can turn to, profitably.

I understand businesses reluctance to train. And pretty much agree with everything you've posted.

But outsourcing, then complaining about the results seems pretty fucking poor business...



Remember when actual investment was a thing?



Our governmentts used to run massive apprentice schemes through the public ownership of gas, electricity, and defence businesses. Then that shit got privatised.

 

[giegs]

Well, when you cut taxes so schools can't do shit, and the military stops holding training because their deployment schedule is frantic and their congresscritters are demanding they hire subcontractors from their district to do all technical work, nobody else is training any new work force.

"Workforce development" is part of the mission for me, so that's nothing new. Same with the cut funding, subcontract, lose institutional knowledge spiral in federal and state governments.

What is new is how basic some of the training needs to be. Things like showing up on time, following work orders, acting within a chain of command, and contributing to a shared objective need more explicit guidance and hand holding than just a few years ago. In 15 years I'd never had someone tell me they won't communicate with their immediate supervisor due to basic interpersonal friction. Happened probably half a dozen times last year in the context of 1m+ labor hours. Lots more to it I won't get into, but "are you f'ing kidding me?" is a more common thought than I'd like.

I really dislike treating public education as job skills training, but there's a clear need for a better way of doing things.

 

[Ease the sheet.]

"Workforce development" is part of the mission for me, so that's nothing new. Same with the cut funding, subcontract, lose institutional knowledge spiral in federal and state governments.

What is new is how basic some of the training needs to be. Things like showing up on time, following work orders, acting within a chain of command, and contributing to a shared objective need more explicit guidance and hand holding than just a few years ago. In 15 years I'd never had someone tell me they won't communicate with their immediate supervisor due to basic interpersonal friction. Happened probably half a dozen times last year in the context of 1m+ labor hours. Lots more to it I won't get into, but "are you f'ing kidding me?" is a more common thought than I'd like.

I really dislike treating public education as job skills training, but there's a clear need for a better way of doing things.

Sounds like being a parent..

 

[giegs]

Sounds like being a parent..

Oh, I've had a good number parents try to get involved with the management issues their adult children encounter.

It.Is.Madness

 

[Ease the sheet.]

Oh, I've had a good number parents try to get involved with the management issues their adult children encounter.

It.Is.Madness

Yes. The internal conflict between cutting them lose and trying to improve them, with some real world consequences, can be stressful.

 

[SloopJonB]

First he lowers gas prices.

Now this.

Worst POTUS ever.

 

[Raz'r]

Terrible news, just terrible. For republicans…

The unemployment rate, which was expected to tick up slightly, instead fell to 3.4% from 3.5%. It hasn’t been that low since before the moon landing.

Other highlights:

• After revisions, America gained 4.8 million jobs last year. That’s 300,000 more than previously reported.
• Job gains were widespread, led by the leisure and hospitality sector.
• Wages grew 4.4% from a year earlier — higher than expected. (That’s still below the latest inflation reading of 6.5%, though inflation has been steadily declining since June.)

 

[Mrleft8]

Thread drift...

Should schools train people for jobs, or should they educate?


My view is job training should be the domain of the employer.

Foreman: What training/experience do you have for this job?
Applicant: Well... None. That's why I'm applying for a job as a carpenter's helper, so I can learn.
Foreman: We aren't a tech school kid. Come back when you have experience.
Applicant: How can I get experience if I can't get a job?
Foreman: Tell that to your school board. They cut out shop classes, and after school programs to save money.
Applicant: Isn't there some job I can do here?
Foreman: Do you know Excel, Word, and Office 2022?
Applicant: Well, sure, I knew that in freshman year but.
Foreman: I think the office girl is taking some time off to get her nails done or something. Maybe you could fill in there until you learn a trade.

 

[Mike G]

Boebert on the jobs report: "Hand or blow?"

 

[Ishmael]

Boebert on the jobs report: "Hand or blow?"

Steve's dead, man.

 

[BeSafe]

Being in advanced energy, I've never really had the luxury of hiring people with previous experience. They all train as they go. Some move on - most stay for quite a while, certainly long enough to justify the training downside. Training and onboarding is a skill like anything else - if you organize it, the process is usually pretty painless and - insider hint - one of tasks you can give a new recruit it to provide feedback on how to make the training better.

At the tech level, mostly I'm looking at interest (do you like sciency stuff - I don't really care if you can't do it yet - are you interested?), character (come to work, follow rules - unfortunately, that I can't teach), attention to detail, communicate within a team, and, unfortunately for a lot of really good candidates, pass a drug test in a state that has mostly legal pot. I tend to look at hobbies and will usually ask during a screening about such things. I can always throw money at you to do what I want but that's an exponential curve - what do you like to do when people aren't throwing money at you?

I can understand small family businesses running thin margins not wanting to train but I think it's a dumb tradeoff. Its a ramp up in skills - you pay more money for less productivity initially but eventually you'll get back more than what you're paying. If you're smart, you recognize those situations and increase pay accordingly up until they gap out of your business. At which point, you thank them for their work and find someone new to restart the process. Someone who's clearly over-skilled working for you for less money is doing it for a reason and its rarely 'cause they love you. That's narcissistic and short term thinking, and often leads to resentment and a bad reputation as a place to work.

For large corporations, its mostly about the recruiters and is more of an unfortunate side effect of 'the process'. A hiring manager fills out a form, it goes to a recruiter network, who feeds it into the search algos and poof. As the hiring manager, you might have to .. GASP... call the recruiters and actually talk to them about what you're really trying to get done. Normally, recruiters actually LIKE that additional insight and can help you find people who are interested. They get bonuses to get people hired and are motivated to shorten that process.

 

[Raz'r]

Gotta say I’m glad my first couple of employers had testing and rotation programs. Hiring a couple interns this year to do the same.