kill the olympics

Bruce Hudson

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New Zealand
"IOC tries to reassure Olympic athletes over virus liability waiver - Japan Today" https://japantoday.com/category/tokyo-2020-olympics/ioc-tries-to-reassure-olympic-athletes-over-virus-waiver

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At the moment, over half a million new infections of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are happening daily, and over 10,000 deaths.

The world is not ready for a mega event like the Olympics.

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There is a cost Japan will be paying in lives. Sure, within the bubble of the Olympic events the PR machines will be telling us how safe things are, how nobody is dying etc, but behind the scenes, with over 90% of the population unvaccinated, Japanese people working to support the games will be compromised. That includes service staff, people in the food industry and so forth, who will be routinely taking risks to their health to ensure the Olympics goes ahead.

 

EYESAILOR

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"IOC tries to reassure Olympic athletes over virus liability waiver - Japan Today" https://japantoday.com/category/tokyo-2020-olympics/ioc-tries-to-reassure-olympic-athletes-over-virus-waiver

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At the moment, over half a million new infections of the SARS-CoV-2 virus are happening daily, and over 10,000 deaths.

The world is not ready for a mega event like the Olympics.

---

There is a cost Japan will be paying in lives. Sure, within the bubble of the Olympic events the PR machines will be telling us how safe things are, how nobody is dying etc, but behind the scenes, with over 90% of the population unvaccinated, Japanese people working to support the games will be compromised. That includes service staff, people in the food industry and so forth, who will be routinely taking risks to their health to ensure the Olympics goes ahead.
It all sounds so strange from here.  Here we are Approaching 60% vaccinated .....+ resistance from those already sick......terrible terrible tragedy but it really feels like we are finally thru the worst.   There is real sense of optimism in our local community....cautious optimism but optimism. Walk in vaccines are freely available at our local Walgreens. Lock downs ending. Yacht Club open. Masks no longer compulsory this Monday but most will continue to wear in public stores etc.  Just feels like we are emerging.   I feel so bad for Japan. They did such a great job initially and then fell behind on the vaccine push.   
The US system of independent states and varying quality of leadership cost us vs Japan when pandemic arrived but when it comes to innovation and rolling something out, all of our entrepreneurial  flaws manifest themselves in speed and effectiveness.   
History will be amazed that we went from research and discovery to a vaccinated population in 18 months.  It is truly incredible.   
 

 

EYESAILOR

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By the numbers Japan is still doing very well.

Cases declined by a lot this week and cases per capita /deaths per capita last week were extremely low on global basis.

 

Bruce Hudson

Super Anarchist
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New Zealand
By the numbers Japan is still doing very well.
That is a perspective from the US where the pandemic still rages. (Yes, US vaccine rates are around 60% and are likely to be peaking.) Internationally, the US is still doing poorly. (I am very aware of the rhetoric and misinformation on the US).

From Japan's perspective, while daily infections have peaked, overall active infections and deaths are increasing at an alarming rate.

What alarms the Japanese people is the probability of another wave caused by increased activity because of the Olympics. 

Screenshot_20210529-124613.png

 

Recidivist

Super Anarchist
The 10,600 athletes and the additional coaches and officials are 80% vaccinated (and perhaps one could make it compulsory) so they will not be spreading the virus back home.
From what I have read, being vaccinated does not stop a person from contracting Covid, nor from spreading it.  It merely ameliorates the intensity of the disease.  If that is correct (and I've seen it from a number of sources), the statement above is not necessarily correct.

 
That is a perspective from the US where the pandemic still rages. (Yes, US vaccine rates are around 60% and are likely to be peaking.) Internationally, the US is still doing poorly. (I am very aware of the rhetoric and misinformation on the US).

From Japan's perspective, while daily infections have peaked, overall active infections and deaths are increasing at an alarming rate.

What alarms the Japanese people is the probability of another wave caused by increased activity because of the Olympics. 

View attachment 443680
That is a cumulative statistic Bruce.

What will be important is rate of change of cases (in absolute terms and per capita).  The last trailing 7 days cases in Japan are down 22% on the prior 7 days .   That is the good news and Japan on  a global basis has not had a high incidence of CV19.  However this might just be because of tightened lock downs.  A nation cannot forever be locked down, so until Japan gets vaccinated they will face further waves. 

 I tend to agree that Japan worrying about the Olympics is distracting their concern from the main issue that they should be concerned about.  

INHO, no nation has dealt with CV19 perfectly.   The best course would have been stringent social distancing, masks , controlled lock downs and contact tracing until vaccines arrive.    Some countries (Japan) did well on the former but are behind on vaccines. Some countries were weak on stage 1 but have been much faster on adoption of vaccines (UK and USA).

There is lots of misinformation but also even with information I think ttere is simple uncertainty.

 

Terry Hollis

Super Anarchist
INHO, no nation has dealt with CV19 perfectly.   The best course would have been stringent social distancing, masks , controlled lock downs and contact tracing until vaccines arrive.    Some countries (Japan) did well on the former but are behind on vaccines. Some countries were weak on stage 1 but have been much faster on adoption of vaccines (UK and USA).
New Zealand has done very well on the former and slow with the vaccines, countries which have performed poorly on the former have all done well on the vaccines.  They have chosen to go early with the vaccines out of desperation as the vaccines were their last hope.  In New Zealand we have been free of community transmission for most of the year so we can choose the vaccine that seems to be best suited to our needs.  We invested in about five vaccines but so we have had time to get it right, the whole country is getting the pfiver vaccine free, the economy is good with 4% unemployment, and we seem to have spent less time on lock downs than any other country.

 
New Zealand has done very well on the former and slow with the vaccines, countries which have performed poorly on the former have all done well on the vaccines.  They have chosen to go early with the vaccines out of desperation as the vaccines were their last hope.  In New Zealand we have been free of community transmission for most of the year so we can choose the vaccine that seems to be best suited to our needs.  We invested in about five vaccines but so we have had time to get it right, the whole country is getting the pfiver vaccine free, the economy is good with 4% unemployment, and we seem to have spent less time on lock downs than any other country.
Yes. NZ has done an amazing job.  If the Pfizer vaccine can be administered promptly then you will be the success story of the great pandemic.  You started with the advantage of being an island nation but even so that advantage could have been short lived.

During that time you also managed to host the Americas Cup.( I am not sure how many sailors and support staff accompanied each team. If it came to 400 or more, that would be the same impact as the Olympics on Japan. I suspect it is smaller so the comparison is probably not valid. )

You are right about the decision to go early due to situation. It was certainly true in the UK which went all out with a single dose priority with AZ vaccine when many questions remained unanswered about the vaccine and about single dose priority.     To be fair to the US, the strategy had always been to wait for sustentative results from trials but to manufacture the vaccines anyway.  

The challenge for NZ rural communities is going to be cold storage chain for pfizer.....but the results have been superb

 

Terry Hollis

Super Anarchist
Yes. NZ has done an amazing job.  If the Pfizer vaccine can be administered promptly then you will be the success story of the great pandemic.  You started with the advantage of being an island nation but even so that advantage could have been short lived.

During that time you also managed to host the Americas Cup.( I am not sure how many sailors and support staff accompanied each team. If it came to 400 or more, that would be the same impact as the Olympics on Japan. I suspect it is smaller so the comparison is probably not valid. )

You are right about the decision to go early due to situation. It was certainly true in the UK which went all out with a single dose priority with AZ vaccine when many questions remained unanswered about the vaccine and about single dose priority.     To be fair to the US, the strategy had always been to wait for sustentative results from trials but to manufacture the vaccines anyway.  

The challenge for NZ rural communities is going to be cold storage chain for pfizer.....but the results have been superb
I believe that the UK team had more than 100 personnel and the others three challengers about the same.  All entrants to New Zealand were required to go into managed isolation for 14 days, no virus was brought into the country by the teams.

 
I believe that the UK team had more than 100 personnel and the others three challengers about the same.  All entrants to New Zealand were required to go into managed isolation for 14 days, no virus was brought into the country by the teams.
So if New Zealand co do this with 300 people in the days prior to vaccines being available, why cannot Japan, (a country with 26x the population of NZ) do this with 10,000 Olympic athletes.  The Olympic village is effectively an island/peninsula which would facilitate a 14 day quarantine.  Layer on top of that current 80% vaccination rate for the athletes, or even raise that to a 100% requirement.

image.jpeg

 

Bruce Hudson

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New Zealand
NZ has done an amazing job. 
One's perspective is relative.

From the inside of NZ looking out, NZ is my normal. NZ was slow to adopt masks. NZ did have a full lockdown, and if that is the standard by which other countries are judged, the only regions to come close in my view were China (Wuhan in particular), Western Australia, Spain and a few others.

Examples of not having a 'full lockdown' include Victoria (Australia) where a 'lockdown' includes private groups limited to five, and public groups limited to thirty. From my perspective, that is not a proper lockdown - and as NZ now shares open borders with Australia it is my risk here in NZ.

There is another outbreak right now in Melbourne, and people who have been there in the last 14 days are moving freely in NZ without being tested. As of yesterday, the NZ government was tracking down about 500 people who had flown in from Melbourne, who had yet to be tested. The risks we are taking are in my view unacceptable.

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What NZ eventually got right was track and trace, with genomic testing on every case becoming a practical tool to establish lineage, to enable confidence that management of an outbreak is effective.

"How Covid-19 genome sequencing maps the spread of the virus | RNZ" https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018774366/how-covid-19-genome-sequencing-maps-the-spread-of-the-virus

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Japan is in a terrible situation with a horrific level of deaths. 

Countries like the US are worse, yet are opening up.

The consequence of 'living with the SARS-CoV-2 virus' is illness and death. 

The majority of deaths in my view are avoidable.

Misinformation includes nonsense that for some areas a more effective approach like NZ's is not possible. Hawaii is a great example where the NZ approach was (and is) possible, but simply not followed.

Strick lockdowns are not possible in countries like Peru where the number of refrigerators are low it means that to get fresh food one needs to go to market ever few days. 

"Coronavirus Hits Peru Hard Despite Strict Lockdown - WSJ" https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-hits-peru-hard-despite-strict-lockdown-11592146800

I have become aware of inept management by reading 'lockdown' policies where many have too many exceptions to be effective. Talking directly people who are there has given me the necessary perspectives to confirm forming judgment that the management has been inept.

The challenge for NZ rural communities is going to be cold storage chain for pfizer.....but the results have been superb
This is not much of a challenge. NZ has got the necessary infrastructure which includes the ability to keep the vaccine cool for the correct amount of time. 

NZ plans to have vaccinated 1.7 million by the end of July BEFORE the main rollout begins. (NZ's population is approximately 5 million).

I am in a 'remote area', yet within an easy days drive from NZ's largest city, most 'remote areas' are within a days drive of our five largest cities. 

Because the Pfizer vaccine can be refrigerated for 31 days (2 to 8 degrees Celsius), there is no problem to overcome for rural areas.

"Covid 19 coronavirus: Pfizer vaccine can be stored at refrigerated temperatures for up to 31 days - NZ Herald" https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-can-be-stored-at-refrigerated-temperatures-for-up-to-31-days/BRAGE6552A5LA5BLEZMHNQADAM/

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There are several small Pacific nations why rely on NZ.

"NZ Government to accept liability for vaccines in Pacific" https://www.newsroom.co.nz/nz-liable-for-pacific-vaccines?amp=1

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It is about perspective.

NZ is my normal.

I make it so by demanding my leaders act properly, are pulled up for any shortcomings, and do my bit by complying with government requests. 

While it turns out that my normal is considered to be 'world leading', but frankly, that doesn't prevent me from identifying shortcomings and pushing hard to make further improvements.

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Everywhere is affected by misinformation.

The key issue will be the extent that anti vaccine misinformation is effective. In some areas, it may even prevent herd immunity from being reached.

 
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Bruce Hudson

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New Zealand
So if New Zealand co do this with 300 people in the days prior to vaccines being available, why cannot Japan, (a country with 26x the population of NZ) do this with 10,000 Olympic athletes.  The Olympic village is effectively an island/peninsula which would facilitate a 14 day quarantine.  Layer on top of that current 80% vaccination rate for the athletes, or even raise that to a 100% requirement.

View attachment 443789
Because Japan has the SARS-CoV-2 virus active in the community, the circumstances are very different to NZ's.

The Tokyo Olympics mean that those local Japanese working to provide goods and services to the Olympics cannot stay home.

Effective lockdown means essential activity only. Japanese justifiably view the Olympics as not essential.

If the Olympics go ahead, there will be increased spread of the virus in Japan.

 
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The Olympic village is a ghost town on the water at the moment.

1000x-1.jpg


After the Olympics are complete, the athlete accommodation will be converted to condos and apartments. 

Is this not a problem that human ingenuity can solve with the tools that we have now versus a year ago?  Could the organizers require all athletes to arrive 14 days ahead of time with a vaccination certificate and  take test on arrival, and test again in 14 days.   + Each athlete has a tracing app on their phone in case an athlete/coach tests positive with a breakthrough infection. 

 

spankoka

Super Anarchist
It's not just Japanese locals at risk, given the number of foreign workers in Japan these days. It's not like the partying in Roppongi is going to stop. All the most irresponsible people in Japan are already in Roppongi having a good time, the Olympics are not going to slow that scene down. 

 
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EYESAILOR

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Is this not a problem that human ingenuity can solve with the tools that we have now versus a year ago?  Could the organizers require all athletes to arrive 14 days ahead of time with a vaccination certificate and  take test on arrival, and test again in 14 days.   + Each athlete has a tracing app on their phone in case an athlete/coach tests positive with a breakthrough infection. 
The American optimism shines through. Everything can be solved with human ingenuity   ;)     Elon will establish a community on Mars and Covid will be defeated by biotech .

Sadly some parts of the natural world will resist even American ingenuity.  The problem for Japan is not the athletes.  The athletes would probably be the safest population in Japan.  It is the non-vaccinated japanese population gathering to watch and run the Olympics where community spread might pick up.    Jaan has a very low infection rate at the moment....but even a slight increase has created a large sense of fear. 

 

Bruce Hudson

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846
New Zealand
Jaan has a very low infection rate at the moment....but even a slight increase has created a large sense of fear. 
Japan has an infection rate of just indert 6%. It is not "very low". I'd say very low is less than 1%.

The US had the same level of infection (6%) about Dec 2020.

 
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EYESAILOR

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Japan is in a terrible situation with a horrific level of deaths.

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Everywhere is affected by misinformation.
Every Covid death is of course a sadness and a tragedy.

However, relative to the rest of the world Japan has not experienced the same horrific death levels of Europe or the USA.  In the last 7 days, Japan lost 668 citizens to Covid.  This is a death rate of 5 per million.  Brazil is in a terrible situation, in the last 5 days their death rate per million was 59.   European death rates (much improved from a month ago) are running at 2 -3X Japan. Even the US where the infections and death rates are declining, we are still running at close to 4,000 per week.....a death rate at 11 per million , close to double that of japan.  Back in January we (the USA) were losing 4,000 people a day due to Covid....so 4,000 a week is progress......but the goal is elimination in the USA. 

 
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