Michigan's starting to tank.

Steam Flyer

Sophisticated Yet Humble
44,231
9,601
Eastern NC
I don't have time to dig up cites for you.  Both have admitted to providing false information.  Trump has not convinced me of anything.  He is a blow hard New Yorker who exaggerates everything from the size of his hands to the size of crowds and much more. But Birx is no better.  She specifically said that she has instructed  

I spoke at length with a doctor about keeping up with current information about a year ago. It was one of the best conversations I have had with any medical professional.  He was a doc in a box and I was there for a sinus infection.  His specialty was pediatrics.  Long story short, he spends at least five hours a day trying to stay current.  I get it.  It is difficult.  The doctors and technicians in the labs are not the people releasing the numbers, or even deciding what numbers to count.  

I have to get back to work now..


Bolded part is blatantly false. You should stop trusting whoever told you this.

- DSK

 

Lark

Supper Anarchist
9,471
1,685
Ohio
Hey Dog part 2 - if Michigan is doing so well, can you explain why we are backing up on opening things and now are instituting new policies?  Perhaps that reality will wake you up.  Or you'll make another excuse.  I'm sure the experts at the State Level are reacting to nothing and there is zero to worry about.
To be fair, you have to even if the time for reopening was correct.   My county had no new cases in two weeks.   We reopened quickly, many places and people ignoring the governor's timetable.   All the graduation parties were held a month late, finishing up just before the Fourth of July parties started.   Until this week masks were a liberal affection.   This semirural county is now seeing 3 new cases a day for the last week.   You can't reopen no matter how few cases you have.  People travel for work.  People finish their COVID vacation and go on their real vacation.   Nowhere in the US can relax restrictions until the virus is stamped down pretty much everywhere.    For the same reason, no country should dare allow US residents or visitors back in without quarantine.   

 

Grrr...

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10,001
2,460
Detroit
It's still going up.  Hey wofsey, is it a trend yet?  Rok Dog, at what point do you admit there's a problem and it's getting worse?

image.png

 

Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,228
11,748
Earth
That is the day that deficits will matter, COVID will matter, the lack of American engagement in the world, etc.

All will matter.

None of it matters now.
The day when the big mouth bullshitters get back aboard the Fiscal Responsibility Express and stink the place up.

 

Rok Dog

Super Anarchist
Still doing fine, right rok dog?  Going to go the Trump route and claim this is just due to more tests?  Hint:  the increase in tests is linear.  The increase in cases over the last 1.5 months appears to be an upward curve (exponential).  The number of tests increasing does not account for the increasing rate of infections.

View attachment 376852

We know Florida has been screwing with the corona virus numbers by refusing to include 'non residents' in their stats.  Even if they contract, get sick, and die in Florida.

Do you have some sort of cite that Michigan is screwing with the numbers?  I have not seen any credible claims or proof of that.
Things are still looking good. You should use Michigan Gov’s website.  Unless you are saying The State of Michigan is lying.  
 

You trust a random graph over your own state government?

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Grrr...

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10,001
2,460
Detroit
You continue to gleefully quote these numbers, but you don't really understand what they mean.  I'll give you that the death rate is looking good - for now.  As the diagnosed cases continue to increase, the death rate will start to increase (eventually).  There's no way out of that.  It's clear our medical facilities have learned more about the virus and how to treat it.  So let's agree - that's all good news.

The bad news is that you are interpreting the data incorrectly.  Specifically:

image.png

This is the new case rate.  Initially you might look at this and say "hey, that looks good, we're dropping."  But the reality is that the lag is due to the timing of tests, and that tail off isn't really a tail off, it's just a period in which all the test results haven't been completed and turned in.  Some facilities are running up to 10 days behind in Michigan due to the backlog.  If you had someone (working) in primary care, you'd also know that a number of test facilities currently can't process tests for various reasons:  shortage of materials, failure of test machinery that wasn't meant to run around the clock, etc.

See the upward trend here?  That's bad.  Very bad.  And it outpaces the increase in testing significantly.  That means that the new case rate is going up, significantly.

But let's take a step back and take a dose of reality.  The governor is beginning to walk back the reopening.  She's increasing restrictions, mandating increased mask wearing, and has gone on public record and acknowledged that things are heating up.  That's bad.  You can't argue it.  The numbers are getting worse, and the people closest to them and with the biggest vested interest in managing them have acnowledged it.

Summary:

  • The Michigan Government has acknowledged things are getting worse.
  • The case rate is increasing at greater than the test increase rate.
  • The death rate will increase as the case rate increases.
  • We are just entering the period where we will begin to see cases show up from the July 4 holidays.
  • High school atheltics is starting (and have announced they WILL be fully starting) in just a week.  Marching band and cross country have already returned.
  • Students will be returning to schools in just 4 weeks.

I.e. - the people like you sitting back and saying "everything is fine" are kinda like this guy:

image.png

 

Grrr...

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10,001
2,460
Detroit
200K dead by the end of September for current projections. 
Wait for December.  Seriously.  That will give the schools and daycares and Latch-keys enough time to have thoroughly spread the virus.  Our administrators had a blank look when we asked them how they were going to social distance on busses.

I've been right on every prediction I've made - because they are all pretty basic math. New Years eve is going to be a remembrance of the nearly 300000 dead.

 
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Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,228
11,748
Earth
Wait for December.  Seriously.  That will give the schools and daycares and Latch-keys enough time to have thoroughly spread the virus.  Our administrators had a blank look when we asked them how they were going to social distance on busses.

I've been right on every prediction I've made - because they are all pretty basic math. New Years eve is going to be a remembrance of the nearly 300000 dead.
Hey now, it could have been two million, remember? Or was it three million?  Hey bullshitters, what was the high number you picked back in Feb/March to try to make any number sound good?  I think it was two million. 
 

People tend to notice that many dead bodies. 

 

Grrr...

▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰▰ 100%
10,001
2,460
Detroit
Hey now, it could have been two million, remember? Or was it three million?  Hey bullshitters, what was the high number you picked back in Feb/March to try to make any number sound good?  I think it was two million. 
 

People tend to notice that many dead bodies. 
Not if you buy semis trailers and hide them. Like Florida and Texas are doing.

 

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