Michigan's starting to tank.

Raz'r

Super Anarchist
62,310
5,508
De Nile
You continue to gleefully quote these numbers, but you don't really understand what they mean.  I'll give you that the death rate is looking good - for now.  As the diagnosed cases continue to increase, the death rate will start to increase (eventually).  There's no way out of that.  It's clear our medical facilities have learned more about the virus and how to treat it.  So let's agree - that's all good news.

The bad news is that you are interpreting the data incorrectly.  Specifically:

View attachment 378407

This is the new case rate.  Initially you might look at this and say "hey, that looks good, we're dropping."  But the reality is that the lag is due to the timing of tests, and that tail off isn't really a tail off, it's just a period in which all the test results haven't been completed and turned in.  Some facilities are running up to 10 days behind in Michigan due to the backlog.  If you had someone (working) in primary care, you'd also know that a number of test facilities currently can't process tests for various reasons:  shortage of materials, failure of test machinery that wasn't meant to run around the clock, etc.

See the upward trend here?  That's bad.  Very bad.  And it outpaces the increase in testing significantly.  That means that the new case rate is going up, significantly.

But let's take a step back and take a dose of reality.  The governor is beginning to walk back the reopening.  She's increasing restrictions, mandating increased mask wearing, and has gone on public record and acknowledged that things are heating up.  That's bad.  You can't argue it.  The numbers are getting worse, and the people closest to them and with the biggest vested interest in managing them have acnowledged it.

Summary:

  • The Michigan Government has acknowledged things are getting worse.
  • The case rate is increasing at greater than the test increase rate.
  • The death rate will increase as the case rate increases.
  • We are just entering the period where we will begin to see cases show up from the July 4 holidays.
  • High school atheltics is starting (and have announced they WILL be fully starting) in just a week.  Marching band and cross country have already returned.
  • Students will be returning to schools in just 4 weeks.

I.e. - the people like you sitting back and saying "everything is fine" are kinda like this guy:

View attachment 378408
 Well thought out and well reasoned. The puppy won’t understand.

 

Ease the sheet.

ignoring stupid people is easy
20,029
2,205
Hey now, it could have been two million, remember? Or was it three million?  Hey bullshitters, what was the high number you picked back in Feb/March to try to make any number sound good?  I think it was two million. 
 

People tend to notice that many dead bodies. 
This time next year. 2 million may seem conservative

 

Rok Dog

Super Anarchist
It's still going up.  Hey wofsey, is it a trend yet?  Rok Dog, at what point do you admit there's a problem and it's getting worse?

View attachment 377098
As soon as it actually gets worse.

That’s almost two week old data based on the date.  Plus it’s not from a reputable source.  Below is the data directly from the democratically run State of Michigan website (and you know DEMs don’t lie).

daily cases - down

daily tests -up

daily percent positive tests - down

daily deaths - still going down and near zero

7626CB9D-DDBB-4CF0-BB11-09230B379228.jpeg

6EAAAB89-D120-4F17-8917-D3052492CF5A.jpeg

505E81B4-13E2-4668-9ABA-D8B025D47888.jpeg

 
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Grrr...

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10,016
2,471
Detroit
As soon as it actually gets worse.

That’s almost two week old data based on the date.  Plus it’s not from a reputable source.  Below is the data directly from the democratically run State of Michigan website (and you know DEMs don’t lie).

daily cases - down

daily tests -up

daily percent positive tests - down

daily deaths - still going down and near zero

View attachment 378946

View attachment 378947

View attachment 378948
Alright.  I'm done responding to you.  I've tried to explain this stuff to you and you're just not interested in learning.

  1. It's not "two week old data".  For christ sake, look at the data to the right of the the July 12th tick mark.  It was up to date to the fucking DAY.
  2. Not reputable?  It's only the #1 google search result if you type in coronavirus michigan statistics, and is put together by wikipedia directly from state, federal, and local sources.
  3. Daily cases are UP.  I already explained this in a previous post.  You're looking at the daily data in the last week from the Michigan website, when tests are running up to two weeks behind in Michigan.  That data is INCOMPLETE for those dates.  It won't be done for at least another week.
  4. You are basing the rest of your statements on your faulty understanding of the daily data as well.  Your observations are invalid.
  5. The only real good news coming out of Michigan is that the death rate is not increasing right now.  That's OUTSTANDING.

I'm done trying to explain this stuff to you.  You simply don't understand it.  You're Dunning Kruger to a "T".  One last time - here's the end of the 'daily case' data that you're showing.  Perhaps you'll read it this time.

View attachment 378407

Here's the current new case data. Note that there are data points to the right of Jul 19.  I even highlighted one just for you.

image.png

And here are the references for that data:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases_by_state

 
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Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,293
11,805
Earth
Alright.  I'm done responding to you.  I've tried to explain this stuff to you and you're just not interested in learning.

  1. It's not "two week old data".  For christ sake, look at the data to the right of the the July 12th tick mark.  It was up to date to the fucking DAY.
  2. Not reputable?  It's only the #1 google search result if you type in coronavirus michigan statistics, and is put together by wikipedia directly from state, federal, and local sources.
  3. Daily cases are UP.  I already explained this in a previous post.  You're looking at the daily data in the last week from the Michigan website, when tests are running up to two weeks behind in Michigan.  That data is INCOMPLETE for those dates.  It won't be done for at least another week.
  4. You are basing the rest of your statements on your faulty understanding of the daily data as well.  Your observations are invalid.
  5. The only real good news coming out of Michigan is that the death rate is not increasing right now.  That's OUTSTANDING.

I'm done trying to explain this stuff to you.  You simply don't understand it.  You're Dunning Kruger to a "T".  One last time - here's the end of the 'daily case' data that you're showing.  Perhaps you'll read it this time.

View attachment 378407

Here's the current new case data. Note that there are data points to the right of Jul 19.  I even highlighted one just for you.

View attachment 378966

And here are the references for that data:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/United_States_medical_cases_by_state
I know you have seen the meme about wasting time researching things for a Trumpanze, so I’m not going to post it again. Facts don’t matter to someone trying to steal your time. 

 

Grrr...

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10,016
2,471
Detroit
I know you have seen the meme about wasting time researching things for a Trumpanze, so I’m not going to post it again. Facts don’t matter to someone trying to steal your time. 
It's not even research.  This is stuff I'm required to look at on a daily basis for a number of reasons.

I also have to deal with the people coming in daily telling me this whole thing is a hoax.  They've been by the hospitals.  There are no lines.  We don't need to wear masks.  blah. blah. blah.  Had one guy lean over and whisper to me "it's all fake".  I couldn't fucking get away fast enough.

Waiting on the 3-5 day test results.  Today should be the first day that they might show up for my youngest.  *crosses fingers*.  He's got a bunch of sores in the back of his throat now so we're thinking it's strep and nothing worse.

 

Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,293
11,805
Earth
It's not even research.  This is stuff I'm required to look at on a daily basis for a number of reasons.

I also have to deal with the people coming in daily telling me this whole thing is a hoax.  They've been by the hospitals.  There are no lines.  We don't need to wear masks.  blah. blah. blah.  Had one guy lean over and whisper to me "it's all fake".  I couldn't fucking get away fast enough.

Waiting on the 3-5 day test results.  Today should be the first day that they might show up for my youngest.  *crosses fingers*.  He's got a bunch of sores in the back of his throat now so we're thinking it's strep and nothing worse.
I have a hard time saying "I'm sorry, but I cannot invest my time discussing matters with someone who has renounced reason." Fortunately, I do not have to do so on any kind of regular basis. 

I don't see how we get a handle on this without better testing and tracing. Results need to be available in hours not days. We can do all that we need to do to solve this crisis, but doing it in a way that allows the Best Americans to make a killing off of it is the hard part.  I have a sneaking suspicion that is why we are #1 in a bad way about now. 

 

El Borracho

Verified User
6,689
2,659
Pacific Rim
I don't see how we get a handle on this without better testing and tracing. Results need to be available in hours not days. We can do all that we need to do to solve this crisis, but doing it in a way that allows the Best Americans to make a killing off of it is the hard part.  I have a sneaking suspicion that is why we are #1 in a bad way about now. 
This is the same thing we saw with the panic driven shortages last spring. The US perfect capitalist medical system has no slack. The penny counters figured out exactly how many PCR (or whatever) tests were needed per week and installed exactly that capacity. The savings went to buy back stock or pay the genius executives. If the military was run by this capitalistic play book the Army would have exactly zero bullets at the end of each training day. Why pay for a bunker full of ammo if there is no war at the moment?

 

Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,293
11,805
Earth
I've said many times that the earliest we might be able to take action to combat this is January 20, 2021, and that is not a given. Seeing the HHS Sec renew the emergency declaration gives me some hope that fact-based people are being heard, which would be a welcome switch. 

 

Bus Driver

Bacon Quality Control Specialist
Rok Dog has done a fine job of pointing out how the Governor of Michigan did a masterful job of addressing the pandemic in her state. 

This, despite the urging by the President to do the opposite, coupled with an armed contingent storming the State House to argue against her directives.

She got it right.  The President and the armed Michigan militia continue to get it wrong.  Thank you, Rok Dog for pointing out how the Democratic Governor got the job done. 

Though, I have a hunch you may not be pleased with how much better she did than what your team was pushing.

 

Sol Rosenberg

Girthy Member
94,293
11,805
Earth
I’m on day 8 of waiting for my test results. 
Correction, that was day seven. It’s now day ten, with no test results, and I’m still sitting here like Sam Breakstone. “I’m waiting!”

No wonder Florida is the epicenter. If you are in Michigan, be glad you have some leadership. 

 

ShortForBob

Super Anarchist
34,939
2,784
Melbourne
Correction, that was day seven. It’s now day ten, with no test results, and I’m still sitting here like Sam Breakstone. “I’m waiting!”

No wonder Florida is the epicenter. If you are in Michigan, be glad you have some leadership. 
we found that most people were not self isolating while waiting results...results take 1-5 days here.(mine were back in 24 hours)

If the same is happening in Florida, there's really no point in testing...in 10 days one person can have caused a tsunami.

How much contact tracing is being done?

How much harder is it to trace when people who have even mild symptoms (I assume that's why they get tested) carry on as usual while waiting ten days for results?

How many negative people tested, become positive in ten days and need retesting.

One rather selfish outcome for me, this virus has destroyed my belief in the co operative society. :(

 
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Grrr...

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10,016
2,471
Detroit
Michigan blew through 1000 daily cases.  But certain people will continue to intentionally misconstrue the statistics to claim its fine.

My sons 3-5 day is still not back.  But certain people will continue to contradict the obvious and claim the testing is working just fine.  The best in fact.

As long as people continue to allow their political bias or ignorance to influence their conclusions we will continue to tank.

These same people will continue to claim everything is fine until it explodes in their face. Just like Trump is.

image.png

 
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Raz'r

Super Anarchist
62,310
5,508
De Nile
As soon as it actually gets worse.

That’s almost two week old data based on the date.  Plus it’s not from a reputable source.  Below is the data directly from the democratically run State of Michigan website (and you know DEMs don’t lie).

daily cases - down

daily tests -up

daily percent positive tests - down

daily deaths - still going down and near zero

View attachment 378946

View attachment 378947

View attachment 378948
Trying to pull a “Mikey?”

(bullshitting with old, Incomplete or irrelevant data)

 

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