Well thought out and well reasoned. The puppy won’t understand.You continue to gleefully quote these numbers, but you don't really understand what they mean. I'll give you that the death rate is looking good - for now. As the diagnosed cases continue to increase, the death rate will start to increase (eventually). There's no way out of that. It's clear our medical facilities have learned more about the virus and how to treat it. So let's agree - that's all good news.
The bad news is that you are interpreting the data incorrectly. Specifically:
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This is the new case rate. Initially you might look at this and say "hey, that looks good, we're dropping." But the reality is that the lag is due to the timing of tests, and that tail off isn't really a tail off, it's just a period in which all the test results haven't been completed and turned in. Some facilities are running up to 10 days behind in Michigan due to the backlog. If you had someone (working) in primary care, you'd also know that a number of test facilities currently can't process tests for various reasons: shortage of materials, failure of test machinery that wasn't meant to run around the clock, etc.
See the upward trend here? That's bad. Very bad. And it outpaces the increase in testing significantly. That means that the new case rate is going up, significantly.
But let's take a step back and take a dose of reality. The governor is beginning to walk back the reopening. She's increasing restrictions, mandating increased mask wearing, and has gone on public record and acknowledged that things are heating up. That's bad. You can't argue it. The numbers are getting worse, and the people closest to them and with the biggest vested interest in managing them have acnowledged it.
- The Michigan Government has acknowledged things are getting worse.
- The case rate is increasing at greater than the test increase rate.
- The death rate will increase as the case rate increases.
- We are just entering the period where we will begin to see cases show up from the July 4 holidays.
- High school atheltics is starting (and have announced they WILL be fully starting) in just a week. Marching band and cross country have already returned.
- Students will be returning to schools in just 4 weeks.
I.e. - the people like you sitting back and saying "everything is fine" are kinda like this guy:
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