N2E 2014 Weather- The official thread

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
The weather this time of year can be just about anything and the reliability of the long range models is fair at best. As per usual, two models are forecasting an unusually peppy trough over the west coast mid week next week while two of the better performing models wash out the trough and forecast an eddy on race day. I personally prefer the deeper trough models (Not because they are right but because I have a disdain for light air distance racing).

As we close in on race day I will try and send periodic updates as the out of focus long range consensus becomes more clear and somewhat reliable.

What are you sailing on and in a perfect world what conditions are you and your team hoping for?

N2E9daysout.jpg

 
going on the Splendor, an early 80s woodie. Perfect, my guess, is about 15-18, about 5% behind the beam. Not running, that would let the sportboats get too much distance. And it needs to hold past 3 am this year, rather than shutting off when I get to the power plant.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
There is almost always wind outside but ya gotta have the legs to get there and not get baited into the shorter course.

Words to the wise- You "May" want to re-think your plans if you are trying to deliver from San Diego or other points south on Thursday the 24th. If the forecast is correct that does not look like a good day to make the trip...

 

full circle

Super Anarchist
1,780
44
Ventura, CA.
There is almost always wind outside but ya gotta have the legs to get there and not get baited into the shorter course.

Words to the wise- You "May" want to re-think your plans if you are trying to deliver from San Diego or other points south on Thursday the 24th. If the forecast is correct that does not look like a good day to make the trip...



so, what you're saying is it is going to blow like shit on thursday...the day before the race, and be all blown out for friday's race day. got it.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
There is a lot of time between now and race day but if the models are right, yes it should blow stink on Monday then back of until Wednesday night/Thursday and then go light and variable on race day (Shocker...not). A lot of things can change though between now and a week from now. Stay tuned.

 

Dude

Anarchist
Lets hope that the weather model is two days late. J 109 Linstar "Its all about the party and hanging with good friends." Anytime we can sail rumb line it's a good race. Maybe we should ask what time do you withdraw from the race? For us, if we have not past the Coronados by 12:00 Pm on Saturday its time for the iron jenny.

I can't count how many times it's blown good only days before the start than shuts off. Lets hope for the best, the race really needs breeze this year!

 
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Wash

Super Anarchist
1,348
0
Long Beach, CA
Given the greatly improved ability of the weather forecasting experts for many years now, I have long contended that SoCal overnight races such as these should have a few day window where the race starting day could be chosen a few days before the window, thereby making the odds for the best conditions a lot better.

 
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us7070

Super Anarchist
10,264
284
Given the greatly improved ability of the weather forecasting experts for many years now, I have long contended that SoCal overnight races such as these should have a few day window where the race starting day could be chosen a few days before the window, thereby making the odds for the best conditions a lot better.
i can just imagine the shit fight that would start...

 
You're joking right. Some of us have jobs and stuff like that...
Jobs??....We don't need no stinkin' jobs..

It's a great idea. We should implement this immediately. Then yacht racing can finally be completely limited to the status quo, where it belongs.

Surfing does this exact thing.. why not have a special series of races where this is implanted.. Maybe for the people that are a little flexible and adventurous...

 
Great idea for an area with lots of Local Boats

it would KILL any event to be set up like that - BUT a NEW Event Around an Island for the Big Boys of inside for Sport Boats When EVERYTHING is Perfect ?????

It would have to offer something BIG and be well backed to be a Must Do Event

Anyone can head out on their own when they like the weather already

Could be For XX Conditions over a weekend with the call to Go made by Tuesday (Can the weather be known for sure that far ahead ??)

Sail/Racing is a Hard Wheel to re-invent :)

 
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