N2E 2014 Weather- The official thread

[DryArmour]

The weather this time of year can be just about anything and the reliability of the long range models is fair at best. As per usual, two models are forecasting an unusually peppy trough over the west coast mid week next week while two of the better performing models wash out the trough and forecast an eddy on race day. I personally prefer the deeper trough models (Not because they are right but because I have a disdain for light air distance racing).

As we close in on race day I will try and send periodic updates as the out of focus long range consensus becomes more clear and somewhat reliable.

What are you sailing on and in a perfect world what conditions are you and your team hoping for?

 

[keithm]

J-125 and 25-30kts at 146TWA

 

[caneesq]

going on the Splendor, an early 80s woodie. Perfect, my guess, is about 15-18, about 5% behind the beam. Not running, that would let the sportboats get too much distance. And it needs to hold past 3 am this year, rather than shutting off when I get to the power plant.

 

[Movable Ballast]

Light works for me... but I would give it up for a cool wind all night race..

 

[DryArmour]

There is almost always wind outside but ya gotta have the legs to get there and not get baited into the shorter course.

Words to the wise- You "May" want to re-think your plans if you are trying to deliver from San Diego or other points south on Thursday the 24th. If the forecast is correct that does not look like a good day to make the trip...

 

[full circle]

There is almost always wind outside but ya gotta have the legs to get there and not get baited into the shorter course.

Words to the wise- You "May" want to re-think your plans if you are trying to deliver from San Diego or other points south on Thursday the 24th. If the forecast is correct that does not look like a good day to make the trip...

so, what you're saying is it is going to blow like shit on thursday...the day before the race, and be all blown out for friday's race day. got it.

 

[Movable Ballast]

Bummer, my delivery crew will have to tough it out or leave Wednesday night.

 

[saboteer]

SC50 Horizon, 15-25kts holding thru the night. Give the old gal a proper send off.

 

[DryArmour]

There is a lot of time between now and race day but if the models are right, yes it should blow stink on Monday then back of until Wednesday night/Thursday and then go light and variable on race day (Shocker...not). A lot of things can change though between now and a week from now. Stay tuned.

 

[sumpin]

turn the motor on and don't sweat it

 

[Dude]

Lets hope that the weather model is two days late. J 109 Linstar "Its all about the party and hanging with good friends." Anytime we can sail rumb line it's a good race. Maybe we should ask what time do you withdraw from the race? For us, if we have not past the Coronados by 12:00 Pm on Saturday its time for the iron jenny.

I can't count how many times it's blown good only days before the start than shuts off. Lets hope for the best, the race really needs breeze this year!

 

[Wash]

Given the greatly improved ability of the weather forecasting experts for many years now, I have long contended that SoCal overnight races such as these should have a few day window where the race starting day could be chosen a few days before the window, thereby making the odds for the best conditions a lot better.

 

[us7070]

Given the greatly improved ability of the weather forecasting experts for many years now, I have long contended that SoCal overnight races such as these should have a few day window where the race starting day could be chosen a few days before the window, thereby making the odds for the best conditions a lot better.

i can just imagine the shit fight that would start...

 

[Movable Ballast]

You're joking right. Some of us have jobs and stuff like that...

 

[CowboyKell]

You're joking right. Some of us have jobs and stuff like that...

Jobs??....We don't need no stinkin' jobs..

It's a great idea. We should implement this immediately. Then yacht racing can finally be completely limited to the status quo, where it belongs.

 

[keithm]

You're joking right. Some of us have jobs and stuff like that...

Jobs??....We don't need no stinkin' jobs..

It's a great idea. We should implement this immediately. Then yacht racing can finally be completely limited to the status quo, where it belongs.

Surfing does this exact thing.. why not have a special series of races where this is implanted.. Maybe for the people that are a little flexible and adventurous...

 

[Code 2]

Hard to implement and would probably see a loss in participation - but a great idea for events that need wind instead of a inboard motor.

 

[DA-WOODY]

Great idea for an area with lots of Local Boats

it would KILL any event to be set up like that - BUT a NEW Event Around an Island for the Big Boys of inside for Sport Boats When EVERYTHING is Perfect ?????

It would have to offer something BIG and be well backed to be a Must Do Event

Anyone can head out on their own when they like the weather already

Could be For XX Conditions over a weekend with the call to Go made by Tuesday (Can the weather be known for sure that far ahead ??)

Sail/Racing is a Hard Wheel to re-invent

 

[DryArmour]

Eight days out....Could be entertaining next Friday. No guarantees until next Wednesday though...