New low lat. Caribbean Hurricane - paging Mark !

Zonker

Super Anarchist
9,657
5,617
Canada
There is a tropical wave that is very likely to form a hurricane in the next few days. Gribs picked it up several days ago, well before NOAA called it. It's on a non typical course with no suggestion of curvature yet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

It's threatening Grenada, Trinidad, and the ABC islands, where a lot of cruising sailboats are _usually_ safe from hurricanes.

I looked at the 500 mB chart to see if I could see anything that would influence it's movement but the latitude is too low. I do see that the Bermuda High is going to reform in 4 days; that might produce some steering movement north. Any other informed guesses?

We're in Curacao right now, which has a very protected anchorage in Spanish Waters, but nobody likes to have a hurricane in the neighborhood. Typically Curacao does get occasional brushes at tropical storm force as hurricanes pass north. We're o.k. with that, but direct hits are no fun.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
There is a tropical wave that is very likely to form a hurricane in the next few days. Gribs picked it up several days ago, well before NOAA called it. It's on a non typical course with no suggestion of curvature yet.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

It's threatening Grenada, Trinidad, and the ABC islands, where a lot of cruising sailboats are _usually_ safe from hurricanes.

I looked at the 500 mB chart to see if I could see anything that would influence it's movement but the latitude is too low. I do see that the Bermuda High is going to reform in 4 days; that might produce some steering movement north. Any other informed guesses?

We're in Curacao right now, which has a very protected anchorage in Spanish Waters, but nobody likes to have a hurricane in the neighborhood. Typically Curacao does get occasional brushes at tropical storm force as hurricanes pass north. We're o.k. with that, but direct hits are no fun.
The system is trucking west at 20mph and is currently under some SW/SSW shear. The low latitude also means reduced Coriolis influence so rapid intensification is unlikely. The dry air surrounding 97L isn't helping either in terms of cyclone formation. NHC gives the system a 20% chance of cyclone formation through 48 hours. Later in the period the shear backs off, the system gains latitude and the SSTs are pretty ripe so at hour 96 we may have something significant to look at by then. I would plan for heavy rain, gusty winds and MAYBE a tropical storm by the time it gets to you but this time of year 97L could defy the odds and ramp very quickly after about 60 hours. As always listen to the NHC and local authorities when making decisions about how to handle the weather locally.

 

Mrleft8

Super Anarchist
26,526
3,708
Suwanee River
Similar track as Ivan.... Let's hope not.......
from the beach in cancun , ivan was a nice breeze , some broken windows but nothing too exciting !
It pretty much wiped out Grenada, and parts of the Grenadines. We lost two friends on Carriacou to Ivan, and the structural damage is still evident. Despite "international aid", local greed and corruption pretty much swallowed up all the help that was offered. It's pretty depressing to see a billboard thanking USAID for the hurricane relief funds in front of a school with blown out windows, and patched steel roofs that leak like a sieve...... 12 years later.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
The 8AM EDT update. 97L Continues west at 15-20mph with moderate convection. With 1100 miles of runway left before interaction with the southern leewards islands and the center of the system I would err on the sided of caution and begin tropical cyclone preparations now if you are in the southern leewards. Southerly shear continues to inhibit rapid intensification but that is forecast to diminish somewhat over the next two days. 30-31'C SSTs will give plenty of juice to 97L once it starts to really rotate (Moderate rotation is evident in the satellite loop). NHC says 60% chance of cyclone formation over the next two days. 90% beyond two days. The long range models indicate a significant right turn and a path over Haiti. We'll see...97L has not been designated a tropical depression and for now dry air surrounds the system. That will change late tomorrow.

As always, pay attention to local authorities and the NHC for official track and intensity guidance.

at201697_model.gif


 
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DryArmour

Super Anarchist
So Mark, with regard to those hard right turns... if they do occur, does that mean it's unlikely to gain anymore westward longitude after Haiti? (thinking about US East coast....)
Too far out to make that call. 97L remains a vigorous wave this morning but due to its size the rotation has not ramped up...yet. Today and tomorrow will be critical days for 97L and will tell us a LOT about where it will eventually go. If it continues west over the next several days at the current 15-20mph clip then a track into the Gulf Of Mexico is more likely. If the forward speed slows down after leaving the leewards then Hispaniola and the western Atlantic are more likely on the hit parade. The Euro model shows more interaction with South America while the GFS is a more WNW track over the next four to five days.

The track possibilities are all of the way from Houston to the western Atlantic so we are just going to have to sit tight and pay attention over the next week or so. Sorry to be so vague but until the system becomes "MATTHEW" it will be near impossible to accurately forecast where he will end up going.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
Just ran the latest GFS. I hope it is wrong. GOM bomb. As my evil twin "Surf Nazi" would tell me though...dude, relax...it isn't even a named storm yet and he is right.

 

Mrleft8

Super Anarchist
26,526
3,708
Suwanee River
I'm not happy about this...........

We live in the "Catcher's mitt", and next week will be very inconvenient for us to have to deal with a GOM Bomb.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
I'm not happy about this...........

We live in the "Catcher's mitt", and next week will be very inconvenient for us to have to deal with a GOM Bomb.
97L hasn't even made the Tropical Storm threshold quite yet officially (Hurricane Hunter is currently checking the system out). The longer it takes to ramp up the greater the chance for westward movement in the trade wind belt. If the system gains much latitude and develops more quickly then the right turn toward Hispaniola is more likely. Still lots of uncertainty about this one. The southern leeward islands will see strong winds and heavy rain beginning late tonight early Wednesday and mariners should be in a safe port asap and double the spring lines if you are luck enough to have a good slip.

Good outflow to the north. The center of surface circulation is to the south of the heaviest convection. Once it develops more symmetrical convection that wraps and a CDO things could get interesting pretty quickly. Until then it should remain just a massive tropical wave with 35-45 knot winds especially in the northern semicircle.

More later as it develops.

 

DryArmour

Super Anarchist
97L Continues to under perform. The Hurricane Hunter recon flight failed to located a closed low level circulation so for now this is just one big, wet tropical wave with "potential". What could have been a hurricane looks like it will pass over the leewards as a very vigorous wave or Tropical Storm sometime tomorrow morning. There is some rotation but it is like system's have their spin stuck in the molasses this year.

That being said, if you are in the path of this system, remain vigilant and stay up to date with the NHC updates along with local authorities.

LONG TERM- My "Opinion" is that the track is more WNW than NW and that has long term implications for the anticipated and heavily advertised right turn. If it does become a hurricane and maintain a WNW trajectory then the right turn that has been in the forecast is more likely. If it doesn't spin up then the WNW path will continue and there will be less of or no BIG right turn. More later....

 




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