New protocol

[Skipstone]

Aww you spoiled the fantasy, - he was really getting into it.....

So: ship 'emif you've gottem, and of course finish your base before you arrive. 

You can run your whole campaign without a base if you like.  In fact go right ahead.

But the point is no-one's shipping 'em as you put it.  And no base building is going ahead for quite some time to come.

 However you choose to look at it the runway to the Christmas Race is still squeezing...

 

[nav]

Where is this magical place where you can use your boat and all is perfect certainty?

 

[Skipstone]

Where is this magical place where you can use your boat and all is perfect certainty?

THAT... is exactly the point....

 

[Tornado-Cat]

It's a no brainer that TNZ has an advantage to organize the match at the present date, no need to hear Butterworth for that.

LR would have an advantage to postpone.

So the logic is that:

- TNZ won't change the dates the CSS and match until obliged

- LR may try to use the AP to postpone, and it's in their ability to do it.

- AM and Ineos will send B2 in NZ asap, presumably June if the pandemic disappear at the same "speed" as it did in China. But for some reason, perhaps the virus mutation or Chinese lies about their casualties, the numbers and death rates are much higher in the US/Italy/Spain, than China

- If NZ is about one month late with the pandemic they can resume training in July which is their winter, so the weather will dertemine their numbers of days on the water

- Question, will challengers send B1 for back up, or keep it in their respective country for training in case of another change ?

Wild speculations but that is what teams may be trying to guess now.

 

[nav]

- LR may try to use the AP to postpone, and it's in their ability to do it.

Like they said they couldn't for Cagliari?

 

[barfy]

‘The team’ was ETNZ, and they made this statement despite the AP ruling that (subsequently?) went against their wishes. 
 

Terry H did an interview not long ago wherein he described which teams have had the most sailing days so far, it sounded like he had the data down even to number of hours. 
 

Not sure what if anything might be agreed to, to ‘level the playing field’ on that front. That the boats sailed so far have been T’s and just B1’s complicates things a little too.

The larger issue to my mind is the 6 months of design work that both ETNZ and LR benefited from, before releasing any details to the other two teams. In addition was the 6 month foil arms delay and now the hard-to-forecast C19 schedule impacts. 
 

In the ideal world, to try even things up and to create a better chance of competitive racing, all 4 teams will launch B2’s (which obviously matter the most) at around the same time, perhaps with loosened rules around modifications allowed. 
 

Welcome back. Really missed you cutting and pasting news clips, and shitting on anything NZ. What ya been doing?

 

[Skipstone]

It's a no brainer that TNZ has an advantage to organize the match at the present date, no need to hear Butterworth for that.

LR would have an advantage to postpone.

So the logic is that:
- TNZ won't change the dates the CSS and match until obliged

It's entirely conceivable the NZ border won't be re-opened during 2020 at all... 

I'm not sure where that would leave AC36. Quite possibly a complete wash. 

 

[phill_nz]

It's entirely conceivable the NZ border won't be re-opened during 2020 at all

they have already set the precedent for " special cases "

AC would easily qualify .. it's a given that they would have to accept some prerequisites

it would probably only depend on us being on an almost normal footing ( inside the country ) by then

 

[Skipstone]

they have already set the precedent for " special cases "

AC would easily qualify .. it's a given that they would have to accept some prerequisites

it would probably only depend on us being on an almost normal footing ( inside the country ) by then

I wouldn't be so sure.  Much of that depends on the next 3+ months, not only in NZ but around the globe.  Anyone want to entertain any speculation whatsoever what that picture might look like, sitting here right now?

While the AC might seem like a fitting "special case" for entry (and I'm not personally convinced it's all that special at all in the current context) you have to consider where those teams are coming from and the state of their own nations at the time - and the world at large, not just the state of NZ or its readiness to entertain guests once again.

We all appreciate (at some level at least) just how hard hit Italy have been and will continue to be for some time yet.  How long remains unclear, but months yet certainly - with all the challenges that will bring to their readiness especially given the state of their B1 and their ability to continue progressing their B2, let alone overcome lock-downs and such.

Looking at the situation at the moment in the US is really quite disconcerting - quite simply the US is on a precipice right now.  Some of the models are predicting a peak need for 3.5m (yes, million) ICU beds in the US.  The US currently has around 50,000 ICU beds and like NZ could probably double those if they had to... Whatever credence you give the models being circulated, the US have been amongst the most lax in addressing the pandemic and their relatively low mortality rate to date belies the fact they could yet make the rates in Italy and Spain look at least relatively reasonable... when the results of their failure to act earlier and more decisively perhaps become apparent. The next couple of weeks will tell a story but if it continues to head south, the hospitals there will in time be overrun and bad will go to worse, much much worse. I'd always favour erring on the side of hope and humanity but in this case that would mean defending the judgement of a certain President whose proactive leadership has been notably absent throughout this pandemic that he continues to show precious little apparent concern over other than to talk up the return to work of the populace at large while lamenting the sharemarket giving back its gains of the past several years. Anyone would think there was an election looming.

And that leaves Ineos... The UK has at least acted with similar resolve to that executed by the NZ govt over the past week or so... but the UK is probably 1-2 weeks further advanced along the pandemic curve and a further week behind the NZ response so it's probability to flatten the curve has reduced relative to NZ further owing to that lead time for wider  community transmission, the population scale, and its prolonged ability to travel and assemble in public until the past few days.  And even then more seem to be flouting lock-down provisions than keeping them and breaking their bubbles and mixing with others with seeming impunity.  While Ineos may be in a bubble of their own, they too will be at least somewhat confined by the wider considerations of what is going on around them, and presumably their B2 building has also meantime come to a halt.The UK are probably on a steeper path into the pandemic than NZ right now, but also have greater resources to help meet need than NZ, so might yet emerge similarly - if they can reign in the care-less factor amongst a sizable portion of their populace.

The community behaviours in the UK and US, (and to a lesser extent in NZ too) along with the situation that will unfold in Italy will collectively determine the willingness of the NZ government to open its borders to these teams.  Right now, I'd suggest it would be a brave person that would bet on that happening, perhaps anytime this year.  The collective world outlook and prognosis would need to go through a seriously significant upgrade to even warrant giving it consideration. 

And while there's time yet and some of my suggestions may well prove too dire (and hopefully so), they might equally prove prescient.  Bottom line, we can count on nothing yet, nor likely for some considerable time to come.

 

[rh3000]

I wouldn't be so sure.  Much of that depends on the next 3+ months, not only in NZ but around the globe.  Anyone want to entertain any speculation whatsoever what that picture might look like, sitting here right now?

While the AC might seem like a fitting "special case" for entry (and I'm not personally convinced it's all that special at all in the current context) you have to consider where those teams are coming from and the state of their own nations at the time - and the world at large, not just the state of NZ or its readiness to entertain guests once again.

We all appreciate (at some level at least) just how hard hit Italy have been and will continue to be for some time yet.  How long remains unclear, but months yet certainly - with all the challenges that will bring to their readiness especially given the state of their B1 and their ability to continue progressing their B2, let alone overcome lock-downs and such.

Looking at the situation at the moment in the US is really quite disconcerting - quite simply the US is on a precipice right now.  Some of the models are predicting a peak need for 3.5m (yes, million) ICU beds in the US.  The US currently has around 50,000 ICU beds and like NZ could probably double those if they had to... Whatever credence you give the models being circulated, the US have been amongst the most lax in addressing the pandemic and their relatively low mortality rate to date belies the fact they could yet make the rates in Italy and Spain look at least relatively reasonable... when the results of their failure to act earlier and more decisively perhaps become apparent. The next couple of weeks will tell a story but if it continues to head south, the hospitals there will in time be overrun and bad will go to worse, much much worse. I'd always favour erring on the side of hope and humanity but in this case that would mean defending the judgement of a certain President whose proactive leadership has been notably absent throughout this pandemic that he continues to show precious little apparent concern over other than to talk up the return to work of the populace at large while lamenting the sharemarket giving back its gains of the past several years. Anyone would think there was an election looming.

And that leaves Ineos... The UK has at least acted with similar resolve to that executed by the NZ govt over the past week or so... but the UK is probably 1-2 weeks further advanced along the pandemic curve and a further week behind the NZ response so it's probability to flatten the curve has reduced relative to NZ further owing to that lead time for wider  community transmission, the population scale, and its prolonged ability to travel and assemble in public until the past few days.  And even then more seem to be flouting lock-down provisions than keeping them and breaking their bubbles and mixing with others with seeming impunity.  While Ineos may be in a bubble of their own, they too will be at least somewhat confined by the wider considerations of what is going on around them, and presumably their B2 building has also meantime come to a halt.The UK are probably on a steeper path into the pandemic than NZ right now, but also have greater resources to help meet need than NZ, so might yet emerge similarly - if they can reign in the care-less factor amongst a sizable portion of their populace.

The community behaviours in the UK and US, (and to a lesser extent in NZ too) along with the situation that will unfold in Italy will collectively determine the willingness of the NZ government to open its borders to these teams.  Right now, I'd suggest it would be a brave person that would bet on that happening, perhaps anytime this year.  The collective world outlook and prognosis would need to go through a seriously significant upgrade to even warrant giving it consideration. 

And while there's time yet and some of my suggestions may well prove too dire (and hopefully so), they might equally prove prescient.  Bottom line, we can count on nothing yet, nor likely for some considerable time to come.

You can still go to work in the UK, as many are, and not practicing social distancing. Their restrictions are nothing like NZs either in terms of timing or containment.

At least they are more active that AU and US though... Australia is often accused of wanting to be like the US - I guess that includes emulating their head-in-the-sand whilst Rome burns style political leadership.

 

[phill_nz]

there seems little point talking about the usa

shitstain is determined to have 100% infection and herd immunity asap

given the attention span of his support base he only has to do that 2 weeks before the election ( enough time for the last to test positive and a day of zero infections ( success he has beaten the virus ) and he will be re-elected as the super brain of the usa )

ineos have a 3-4 month voyage .. so long as they all come on the same ship as their boat and test themselves each week they will be good to enter nz

am can attempt to do the same .. but accept the fact the journey may take 5-6 months for all to clear of the virus they are going to inevitably get .. perhaps just go out to a concert in new orleans now and get it over with to save the waiting

luna rosa is a problem .. if they have anything left of an economy its not likely to go into super tec race boats .. tourism being a major earner in italy and thats not happening anywhere anytime soon ( soon being years )

 

[phill_nz]

Australia is often accused of wanting to be like the US - I guess that includes emulating their head-in-the-sand whilst Rome burns style political leadership.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/

really sad reading

just dumb

 

[Skipstone]

there seems little point talking about the usa

shitstain is determined to have 100% infection and herd immunity asap

given the attention span of his support base he only has to do that 2 weeks before the election ( enough time for the last to test positive and a day of zero infections ( success he has beaten the virus ) and he will be re-elected as the super brain of the usa ) 

ineos have a 3-4 month voyage .. so long as they all come on the same ship as their boat and test themselves each week they will be good to enter nz

am can attempt to do the same .. but accept the fact the journey may take 5-6 months for all to clear of the virus they are going to inevitably get .. perhaps just go out to a concert in new orleans now and get it over with to save the waiting 

luna rosa is a problem .. if they have anything left of an economy its not likely to go into super tec race boats .. tourism being a major earner in italy and thats not happening anywhere anytime soon ( soon being years )

100% infection would mean tens of millions of Americans die. That is a certainty.  Herd immunity is far from certain too - there is no confirmation yet that re-infection over and over is not possible.  RNA is far more easily mutated than DNA, hence the ease of the jump from bat to pangolin to human and the existence of different strains of CoViD 19. It will continue to morph and mutate in response to challenges it meets, perhaps sufficiently for human immunity not to recognise its return.

Ultimately whether or not anyone knocking on the border door can demonstrate virus-free status is quite possibly the least of the rationale to consider letting them in while the border remains closed.

 

[phill_nz]

100% infection would mean tens of millions of Americans die

to anyone else but shitstain that horrendous fact would stir every action possible

unfortunately for the usa it only stirs a deep concern for his money and investments

that means they need to go back to work asap ... just shove the bodies aside .. they wont get infected again anyway ..  he will fix it beautify with the most amazing brain in the usa .. we are all just so lucky he is a really smart guy and will save us all .. all doctors think his understanding of this is perfect ..

* choke *

 

[Tornado-Cat]

Like they said they couldn't for Cagliari?

I said "their ability to do it", not their "will" obviously.

19.1. If on or before the respective Conditions Date negotiations have been unsuccessful and the respective Race Conditions have not been finalised, then the America’s Cup Arbitration Panel (“Arbitration Panel”) shall commence mediation of all such differences at the request of RNZYS and/or COR. If that mediation is unsuccessful then the Arbitration Panel shall, no later than three months after the respective Conditions Date, decide the unresolved issues on which RNZYS and the COR differ and the Race Conditions shall be finalised accordingly.

Not that it is new for you nav, but why are you bitching against the AP ? You want them to decide on the dates of a postponement while nobody knows what will happen with the pandemic ? you want them to replace the CoR and D in strategic decisions ?

Now TNZ is going to wait and see if the CoR wants to renegociate the protocol or go to the AP. They still have the ability to do it but may not be willing to decide. They reduced the scope of their intervention but it's still in the prot.

 

[Lickindip]

I don't believe there is anything in the protocol that needs to change

if the number of ACWS events is Zero then the challengers are eligible for the Xmas race and the challenger series

S&S has a free pass

 

[pwormwood]

to anyone else but shitstain that horrendous fact would stir every action possible

unfortunately for the usa it only stirs a deep concern for his money and investments

that means they need to go back to work asap ... just shove the bodies aside .. they wont get infected again anyway ..  he will fix it beautify with the most amazing brain in the usa .. we are all just so lucky he is a really smart guy and will save us all .. all doctors think his understanding of this is perfect ..

* choke *

While I completely agree about the lack of leadership at the federal level, a positive that I am seeing is that the layered system of government in the US is working - The state governors are stepping in and up (to various degrees) to fill the leadership void left at the top.  This is happening at the county and city levels, as well.  This crisis may well forge our leadership of the future as it lays open the failures of the current leadership for all with open eyes to see.

 

[Woolfy]

This crisis may well forge our leadership of the future as it lays open the failures of the current leadership for all with open eyes to see.

Yet Trump has his highest approval ratings of his term so far?

Please explain to me how can someone who has plainly got it so wrong here still get high approval ratings.

 

[accnick]

Yet Trump has his highest approval ratings of his term so far?

Please explain to me how can someone who has plainly got it so wrong here still get high approval ratings.

Maybe because expectations are so low. People who love him, love him no matter what.  The rest of us, not so much. 

Don't look for rational explanations for that. And don't bother looking to the US for leadership in most things, either. Those days are gone, at least for now.

 

[Skipstone]

Please explain to me how can someone who has plainly got it so wrong here still get high approval ratings.

Perhaps because even when he gets something wrong Trump does so "beautifully" and "perfectly"... 

Reality check... those in power _always_ do well in times of crisis.  It's only afterward that they're judged and partiality returns. The rallying impact of a major crisis on the populace at large is neither new nor unexpected - however well or poorly a leader may perform during one.

While Trump's 55% approval ratings are high for him against an average 40% during his term, they're nothing like the ratings of many of his predecessors. 

Kennedy went from 61% to 76% and back to 61% as a result of the 1962/63 Cuban Missile crisis; Carter went from 32% to 58% and back down again with the Iran hostage crisis of 1979/80; George Bush sen. went from 59% to 89% and back to 61% as a result of operation Desert Storm in 1991; George Bush jun went from 51% to 85% approval in 5 days following 9/11 and a week later had risen to 90%. A year later his approval rating was still 68% - still a significant bump on his pre-9/11 ratings - and somewhat in the face of trends for crisis approval bumps. 

What the US needs is a leader.  What they have is a vacuum.  A perfect vacuum.

(Being partially filled by governors in some states (some better, some worse), and the staff enacting and enforcing those governors' plans - (again some better and some worse). If there's any justice those that stepped up will be able to measure their results positively against those that didn't at the end of this.  It's unclear whether that will be plain.. we all need to hope it is.)