Poling the Electorate

[Not My Real Name]

This seems like it belongs with "Poling the Electorate."

https://nypost.com/2020/10/10/porn-star-cherie-deville-announces-erection-season-voter-website/

https://www.erectionseason.com/

 

[Mismoyled Jiblet.]

Jo Jorgensen- 2%. Man, she’s not even one of you ammosexual dickless 3%ers, trailertrash Tom. Better go harass an endangered species or poach game or just shitpost.

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

TeamD didn't put up a challenger to Senator Tom Cotton but TeamL did and he's polling at 38%.

Tom Cotton Won't Debate Him
 

He might appear a bit on the immature and volatile side to some people but I wish him well.

Ricky Harrington wound up with 33% of the vote. Cotton won with 67%.

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

Libertarian Party of Georgia Loses Ballot Access Lawsuit
 

...

the panel this week, in a decision written by Judge Britt Grant, reversed the District Court's overturning of the 5 percent requirement and upheld the ballot access law. Though the Court admits the L.P. "offers evidence to show that collecting petition signatures is costly and difficult….the Libertarian Party has not shown that the endeavor is significantly more challenging than it was 50 years ago." It argues that the petition requirement is important to the state's interest in avoiding "confusion, deception, and even frustration of the democratic process."

Richard Winger, America's leading expert in ballot access laws and editor of Ballot Access News, says the "frustration" aspect arose from a Supreme Court justice in an earlier ballot access case who considered the very prevention of a major party candidate from winning to constitute the sort of "frustration" restrictive ballot access laws are meant to prevent.

Does the 5 percent requirement truly not "freeze…a status quo?" It has existed since 1943 and no party has ever met it in Georgia, although at least 20 attempts have been made; an independent candidate did once in 1964 at a time when, according to Winger, "the signatures weren't checked."

...

Nope, not a severe burden at all, that guy in 1964 managed it! Can't have non-Duopoly candidates frustrating the electorate by winning.

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

Jolly, Yang, and Whitman's Mushy Middle Technocracy

Almost as common as recognition that America's two dominant political parties represent complementary threats to the republic are bloodless appeals to the mushy middle as an alternative. Like clockwork, smart political figures propose tepid, middle-of-the-road policies that, for some reason, they think will appeal to an impassioned and divided electorate. The latest such effort is the merger of three organizations into a rebooted version of Andrew Yang's centrist Forward Party, a movement based on the dubious premise that "every problem has a solution most Americans can support (really)."

"The United States badly needs a new political party—one that reflects the moderate, common-sense majority," one-time Democratic presidential hopeful Yang, former Governor Christine Todd Whitman (R–N.J.), and former Rep. David Jolly (R–Fla.) wrote in The Washington Post last week. "Today's outdated parties have failed by catering to the fringes. As a result, most Americans feel they aren't represented."

Whitman, it should be noted, was (and may still be; the moribund organization still has a website) on the board of directors of Americans Elect, another such centrist effort to challenge the major parties. That organization achieved the difficult task of getting on the ballot in a majority of states for the 2012 presidential election before its byzantine nomination process failed to pick a candidate.

...

I didn't know that Americans Elect had gotten on so many ballots. That's not easy, what with Duopoly types poling the electorate. Managing it and then failing to select a candidate? That's got to be even harder but pretty funny.

 

[badlatitude]

The consequences of pissed off women.

Voter registration is increasing at astronomical rates, according to the group, Vote.org.

“For Kansas and Missouri registrations, comparing Friday, June 17 to Friday, June 24, we saw a 1,038% increase in Kansas and a 627% increase in Missouri,” Nick Morrow, director of communications for Vote.org, said in an email Monday.


From June 24 to Monday, Wyandotte County has received 600-900 new registered voters. Election Commissioner Michael Abbott said that’s a lot for the county, and it’s a big increase before the primary coming up Aug. 2.

“The turnout in 2018 primary was 25%,” Abott said in an interview with FOX4 Monday. “We’re looking at probably 40 to 45% turnout is what we’re estimating.”

Abbott said his office is getting ballots ready for a 60-65% voter turnout ahead of the primary just to be on the safe side. He said voter registration is up because of what’s come to be known as the Value Them Both amendment.


“Especially with Roe v. Wade on the 24th, we got a lot more applications,” Abott said. “The following day, it was hundreds, and it’s been like that steady since. So for our county to get 600-900 new voter applications in that time period is a lot.”

https://fox4kc.com/politics/your-lo...-1000-in-kansas-since-overturn-of-roe-v-wade/
( I suspect the 600-900 new voters is not precise because of vetting )badlatitude.

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

This Election Day, Listen to the Betting Market Instead of Pundit Predictions

...
I believe the people who bet. That's the topic of my latest video.


At the moment, the bettors think Republicans have a 60 percent chance to win the Senate and an 88 percent chance to win the House.


I take these numbers from ElectionBettingOdds.com, a website I helped start. StosselTV producer Maxim Lott averages predictions from betting sites around the world and converts them to easy-to-understand percentages.


I trust those numbers more than other predictors because in the past, the bettors were right more often than anyone else.


Bettors don't get everything right.

...
Most betting markets, like FTX, Betfair, Smarkets, and Polymarket, only allow non-Americans to bet. That's because uptight, narrow-minded American politicians banned gambling on elections.


Fortunately, they made an exception for PredictIt.org. There, Americans are allowed to bet up to $850.


Our foolish bureaucrats promise to shut PredictIt down, but for now, we can take advantage of the "wisdom of the crowd" that PredictIt provides.

...
If you think you know more than the bettors, you can try to make money by betting at PredictIt.org. If you are not American, FTX, Betfair, Smarkets, and Polymarket will take your bets. All this betting gives us valuable information about the likely future.

Since betting markets are clearly superior predictors, I'm surprised that anyone still pays attention to pundits. I no longer watch the blabbermouths on television.

I check the odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com.

Rather than shutting down betting sites like PredictIt, we should let people bet on races if that's what they want to do. Shutting it down is another way of poling the electorate.

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

SCOTUS might look at how ballot access laws pole the electorate

The Supreme Court this week officially docketed a petition for a writ of certiorari in the case Libertarian Party of New York, et al. v. New York State Board of Elections, et al. This means that, sometime after April 17, the Court will decide whether or not to actually hear the case, which challenges a new set of 2020 restrictions on ballot access in New York, arguing they unjustly impact voters' First and 14th Amendment rights.

A press release from the New York Libertarian Party (NYLP) sums up the tightening of ballot access requirements in its state that led to the lawsuit, in which it is joined by the Green Party of New York: "The threshold for a party to maintain recognized party status and ballot access was increased from 50,000 votes to 130,000 votes or 2% of the vote in the previous gubernatorial or presidential election, whichever is higher."

This led, the press release points out, to four parties that used to have ballot access in New York suddenly losing it: the Libertarian Party, the Green Party, the Independence Party, and the SAM Party. The NYLP press release points out that of the four, only the L.P., whose 2020 presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen got 60,000 votes in the state, would have kept the party's ballot access under the pre-2020 lower threshold.
...

I blame the Duopoly.

 

[slug zitski]

Fuck off...Look at the candidates we have to choose from and this is one way in which the system is rigged to preclude more options...Good topic Tom.

The problem is that the US is governed By a uniparty ,
All controlled by special interests inside the beltway

difficult to understand how a voter could change this rotten system on a nationwide scale

your best hope is to elect authentic local representative and solve local problems

as a country the USA is a failure …just look at the banking system

Barny Frank sat on the Board of signature bank

 

[BeSafe]

Rank choice voting does seem to help a little