Putin and Ukraine

[badlatitude]

[No message]

 

[Expatriated]

Is Putin ready to go after Moldova now? From the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/28/moldova-facing-very-dangerous-moment-amid-fears-it-could-be-drawn-into-ukraine-war):

According to Popescu, who is also Moldova’s foreign minister [as well as Deputy Prime Minister], Transnistrian authorities announced last week they were stopping all men of fighting age from leaving the region, which he described as a sign that “we are not yet out of the potential danger zone”.

This just makes the 17 Republican Senators who voted against a resolution supporting Moldova even worse. I hope the FBI are looking to see if any of them took Russian money...

 

[mikewof]

And with that, mikewof  goes on ignore (even though he was right about viruses)

Thanks dude! Confession, I have never heard of you before this post, and I will likely forget about you in about 2.5 minutes, bu I appreciate your kind words.

 

[Rain Man]

Missiles hit Kyiv.
Just imagine how fucked up in the head one must be to fire missiles against a city that is being visited by the UN secretary-general, to whom one expressed hopes of a diplomatic solution just the day before.

OTOH, it may say something not very complimentary about Russian command and control.

They just put a Chief of General Staff (Gerasimov) in charge of the tactical situation around Izyum.  Is that the best they could do?  Sure sounds like "move over, let me show you how to do this" from someone who hasn't "done this" for a very long time.

 

[BeSafe]

But I'm willing to wager our next gas bill will be higher, because companies will seize any excuse to raise prices.

There actually is a problem with a lot of Russian wells - much of the supply is of the high paraffin variety and run through the permafrost areas.  Why does that matter?  Just like the US Alaskan pipeline, its a one way trip - shut off the pipeline, the pipe fills up with wax that hardens, and the well never comes back on again.

As the Russians cut off exports, they've start filling up their storage and eventually - somewhere between 3 and 18 months from now - they HAVE to start shutting down wells that aren't going to come back on - maybe ever.  They'll triage it and the old wells go off first - but they will go off line.  This war is going to cost the world somewhere between 1 and 3 million barrels per day by the end of the year.  That's already baked into the cake.  Essentially, the Russians are "OK" with that since the price is going to rise - their net income is going to drop but not as much as might be expected.

The Saudis have said they have zero interest in making up that difference - they want the price around $80-$100 long term and see that as a good compromise for today.  They're the only country that has the capacity and infrastructure to get that much new oil online that fast.

The US has started gently making overtures to Venezuela again but that's at LEAST 2 years out before the first well comes on line.  Realistically, its 3-5 years of hard work to get them back in the game.  Iran?   Yea.. that seems a long shot but they could make up some of the difference.  India is going to eat EVERYTHING that Iran can sell - none of that is hitting the global markets but it'll still help because the Indians will be covered - mostly.

The US will likely start restricting energy exports by the end of summer in order to keep domestic prices down.  There IS an election after all.  That means everyone 'not NAFTA' is going to pay more.

Asia is going to suck.  Trump cut deals with So. Korea and Japan so they'll get to keep their special seats at the table - those LNG terminals they built are going to be remarkably convenient - aren't they?    But the rest?  Eh... you're kinda on your own dudes.  Good luck.

 

[Fakenews]

There actually is a problem with a lot of Russian wells - much of the supply is of the high paraffin variety and run through the permafrost areas.  Why does that matter?  Just like the US Alaskan pipeline, its a one way trip - shut off the pipeline, the pipe fills up with wax that hardens, and the well never comes back on again.

As the Russians cut off exports, they've start filling up their storage and eventually - somewhere between 3 and 18 months from now - they HAVE to start shutting down wells that aren't going to come back on - maybe ever.  They'll triage it and the old wells go off first - but they will go off line.  This war is going to cost the world somewhere between 1 and 3 million barrels per day by the end of the year.  That's already baked into the cake.  Essentially, the Russians are "OK" with that since the price is going to rise - their net income is going to drop but not as much as might be expected.

The Saudis have said they have zero interest in making up that difference - they want the price around $80-$100 long term and see that as a good compromise for today.  They're the only country that has the capacity and infrastructure to get that much new oil online that fast.

The US has started gently making overtures to Venezuela again but that's at LEAST 2 years out before the first well comes on line.  Realistically, its 3-5 years of hard work to get them back in the game.  Iran?   Yea.. that seems a long shot but they could make up some of the difference.  India is going to eat EVERYTHING that Iran can sell - none of that is hitting the global markets but it'll still help because the Indians will be covered - mostly.

The US will likely start restricting energy exports by the end of summer in order to keep domestic prices down.  There IS an election after all.  That means everyone 'not NAFTA' is going to pay more.

Asia is going to suck.  Trump cut deals with So. Korea and Japan so they'll get to keep their special seats at the table - those LNG terminals they built are going to be remarkably convenient - aren't they?    But the rest?  Eh... you're kinda on your own dudes.  Good luck.

Putin has become a multi trillion $ problem.  The problem will be solved sooner than later.

 

[BeSafe]

Putin has become a multi trillion $ problem.  The problem will be solved sooner than later.

Yea, but unless it happens tomorrow, it's not going to stop wells from going offline.  The maintenance and part supply ended months ago already - some of the fields are running on inertia and good fortune as it is.  The energy industry works in years and decades, not days and weeks.

The big unknown in all of this is the Chinese and how long they can keep up their quarantines.  A couple of million barrels a day is about the offset if the Chinese can't catch the falling knife they've dropped.

 

[ato]

From the Royal United Services Institute RUSI (not rusky)

Putin may use May 9 for a wider mobilization and a large scale offensive during the summer. 

 

[Navig8tor]

From the Royal United Services Institute RUSI (not rusky)

Putin may use May 9 for a wider mobilization and a large scale offensive during the summer. 

Say,  isn't Pooty due a heart attack right about now?

As TFG was fond of saying "Russia can you hear me?'

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

You suggested reading actual history but provided no source. I provided a source proving what I said is true

No, you provided a link to an academic explanation of a Supreme Court case... total straw man

Non-readers are cute when they pretend to have read.

For the other non-readers, I provided a link to the opinion of the Supreme Court, not an explanation of it, and the Supremes explained exactly what I said, that militia members were expected to appear bearing arms supplied by themselves.

How about not spreading bullshit about our history or at least reading sources from those of us who do instead?

 

[Pertinacious Tom]

@Burning Man @Pertinacious Tomgunellectuals that y'all are, you seem justifiably impressed with the citizen-soldiers of Ukraine who are defending their soil with guns. Still, I can't help but think this may be one of those rare occurrences when we can all come together over common ground. What we need are the gun laws that Ukraine had in place before this invasion.

Are you with me?

Did those gun laws result in widespread availability of guns for Ukrainians or were they reduced to relying on Florida Man to ship them guns when the need arose? Some more context is needed here. I do recall Florida Man shipping them guns and no one seemed to object around here, so maybe there can be some common ground, but if they had gun laws that I would like, I suspect Florida Man would not have seen any need to send them guns. But he did.

 

[Clove Hitch]

A good article from The Daily Beast on Putin's defenders.  Sound like anyone we know who posts here?

In left-wing circles there’s a group derisively referred to as “tankies.” This patois refers to a minority who support authoritarianism, defend dictators, and deny human rights abuses. In my experience they are a small clique even among the far left and are often held in contempt.

My observations indicate that many subscribe to an ideology known as Campism (not to be confused with Lee Camp). This idea sees the world divided into competing factions. Hence, their often well-justified criticisms of the United States lead them to reflexively defend Beijing or Moscow, the other camps. There is also the extremely strident belief in multi-polarity, with their often cogent critiques of U.S. hegemony leading them to see the need to help rival nations grow powerful in order to challenge and weaken it. Often this means protecting them in order to help their rise.

“I do think the number of people who literally support the invasion is fairly limited. The key problem to me is the dominant anti-war framework in the Western Left subscribes to a worldview and organizing strategy that believes we have no influence on other imperial states, and that we can only critique US/NATO,” Promise Li, a Hong Kong-born leftist activist, writer, and member of the Lausan Collective, said in a text message interview. “This means that pro-Putin perspectives become condoned, or that we under-emphasize Russia’s role in the conflict as a crude reaction against liberal interventionist war hawks, rather than trying to find genuinely positive alternatives of solidarity with the Ukrainian people.”

Pay wall here: https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-the-sneakiest-defenders-of-vladimir-putins-ukraine-invasion-and-chinas-xinjiang-repression?ref=home

 

[The Dark Knight]

Did those gun laws result in widespread availability of guns for Ukrainians or were they reduced to relying on Florida Man to ship them guns when the need arose? Some more context is needed here. I do recall Florida Man shipping them guns and no one seemed to object around here, so maybe there can be some common ground, but if they had gun laws that I would like, I suspect Florida Man would not have seen any need to send them guns. But he did.

Why would Ukraine want adopt 3rd world nation laws? No need to flood society with guns in peace time. Better off keeping and controlling a stockpile of weapons to hand out to the public at times like this.
 

 

[badlatitude]

This is an interesting turn of events. Zelensky has an invitation also.


Putin Accepts Invitation to Attend G20 Summit, Setting Up Biden Showdown




Source: Newsweek

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to take part in a G20 summit later this year in Indonesia, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the current G20 chair, said on Friday. 

Speaking from the Bogor Presidential Palace in West Java, the Indonesian leader said his Russian counterpart told him personally that he would attend the G20 summit in Bali this fall. 

The news comes weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden said Russia should be removed from the G20 over Putin's decision to invade Ukraine on February 24. 

Biden and Putin could meet for the first time in person at the meeting since the beginning of the Russo-Ukraine war, if the Russian leader does attend.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-accepts-invitation-attend-g20-summit-indonesia-biden-showdown-1702103  
 

 

[The Dark Knight]

The G20 seems to be in November. Who knows what will happen before then.

Putin could get his man

Putin could be booted in a coup

Dodgy Joe could die of old age

and so on….

 

[Blue Crab]

A good article from The Daily Beast on Putin's defenders.  Sound like anyone we know who posts here?

Here's an anecdotal reference to "Tankies," from a guy on the ground in UKR. I'm glad to learn a new term. I've casually been poking around extreme left and religious views and was looking for a term that fit our guy. "Nazi" has been taken tho it was my preference. "*Double Dogballs**" has been co-opted as a smokescreen even though we all could see right through it from Day One. Yepper, from Day One.

And if anyone can carve out a distinction for us it's likely going to be a fawning political scientist. Tankie 

"Tankie, a term coined as early as 1968, referred to the kind of hard-left person who believed Soviet Russia would always be justified in sending armed forces to suppress anti-communist rebellion, whether in Czechoslovakia in that year, or Hungary in 1956, or anywhere else, as necessary. What is surprising is that this position has survived into the post-communist era."

And Tankie : "The people who’ve been dubbed “tankies” by critics often identify as Marxist-Leninists by ideology and are fiercely against U.S. imperialism and interference in foreign politics, especially in countries that are socialist."

And this was much too on point to overlook: 

"If you opposed the criminal U.S. attack on Iraq in 2003, then you must oppose this criminal attack on Ukraine. Not just consistency, but a minimal degree of decency and human solidarity requires it. Putin’s war is a blatant violation of international law against an independent country that posed no threat to Russia." 

 

[kent_island_sailor]

And this was much too on point to overlook: 

"If you opposed the criminal U.S. attack on Iraq in 2003, then you must oppose this criminal attack on Ukraine. Not just consistency, but a minimal degree of decency and human solidarity requires it. Putin’s war is a blatant violation of international law against an independent country that posed no threat to Russia." 

:lol: :lol:

 

[Bus Driver]

@Burning Man @Pertinacious Tomgunellectuals that y'all are, you seem justifiably impressed with the citizen-soldiers of Ukraine who are defending their soil with guns. Still, I can't help but think this may be one of those rare occurrences when we can all come together over common ground. What we need are the gun laws that Ukraine had in place before this invasion.

Are you with me?

Not sure which label I prefer.  That one, or "ammosexual".

 

[AJ Oliver]

We all gotta die sometime.  If standing up against Putin means nuclear annihilation so be it.  We died doing the right thing. 

In historical terms, the Ukr-Russia-US war is not of major consequence  . . though UKR deserves support and help. 

No way it is anything like worth terminating the planet. 

 

[Keith]

This is an interesting turn of events. Zelensky has an invitation also.


Putin Accepts Invitation to Attend G20 Summit, Setting Up Biden Showdown




Source: Newsweek

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted an invitation to take part in a G20 summit later this year in Indonesia, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the current G20 chair, said on Friday. 

Speaking from the Bogor Presidential Palace in West Java, the Indonesian leader said his Russian counterpart told him personally that he would attend the G20 summit in Bali this fall. 

The news comes weeks after U.S. President Joe Biden said Russia should be removed from the G20 over Putin's decision to invade Ukraine on February 24. 

Biden and Putin could meet for the first time in person at the meeting since the beginning of the Russo-Ukraine war, if the Russian leader does attend.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-accepts-invitation-attend-g20-summit-indonesia-biden-showdown-1702103  
 

First of all, Russia should be kicked out of the G20.

Russia should also be side lined at the U.N.

He will need a bigger table.